The fundamental question for the Cardinals rebuild

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rockondlouie
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Re: The fundamental question for the Cardinals rebuild

Post by rockondlouie »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 04 Oct 2025 13:41 pm
rockondlouie wrote: 04 Oct 2025 11:36 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 04 Oct 2025 11:25 am
rockondlouie wrote: 04 Oct 2025 11:01 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 04 Oct 2025 10:50 am
rockondlouie wrote: 04 Oct 2025 10:45 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 04 Oct 2025 10:32 am
rockondlouie wrote: 04 Oct 2025 09:59 am By competing in 2026, w/o sacrificing the LT goal of building through the system, BDWJr can stem the massive attendance losses and would have a shot at drawing 2.5+M.

Remember matt, BDWJr always ties payroll to attendance.
You keep tying everything to this.

As I've noted many times before, in going down the path they appear to be on, they should be prepared to have increasing spending LEAD a bounce back in attendance by one year when they are ready to exit this rebuilding phase.

Even if they slip to wins in the 60s/70s, attendance in the 1.5 million range, and payroll below $100 million in these rebuilding seasons, once they have established the necessary, new, young core of players in 2028, 2029, etc., they should first start to see wins pick up, even without increasing spending, into the 70s/80s. Once that happens, they then need to increase spending to supplement the talent they will have at that point - even if attendance hasn't yet rebounded. Then, after they have supplemented the roster by increasing spending, wins rise into the 80s/90s and attendance bounces back to 3+ million.

There is nothing that suggest they don't understand this is the path they are on.
I sure do matt....because it's TRUE!

Just as you keep tying losing for four, five or six seasons to future success and BDWJr taking the payroll into the Top 10-12 of MLB.

You may keep "noting it" but that's NOT how BDWJr's payroll operates and I'm surprised you don't know this.

He doesn't "increase payroll" to that Top 10-12 level again w/o first having the attendance (or at least close to it) that allows him to do so.

And what if slipping to the 60's/70's win level you seem obsessed with doesn't lead to having that core of home grown talent?

Then you will indeed see attendance drop to that 1.5+M level and a payroll near $100M for a long time.

Your premise for what should happen is based on the BEST possible outcome while ignoring the equal chance it fails.

Brining in a Z. Gallen type next year, while not neglecting the minor league player development long term goals, would at least give the 2026 team and beyond it's best shot at overachieving and keeping attendance from the FREE FALL it's been in for two years.

Again

BDWJr ties meaningful payroll increases FIRST to proven attendance increases, not the other way around as you keep suggesting.
Again, what they are doing is unprecedented for the period of this ownership over the last 25+ years. So you don't KNOW that they aren't prepared to act differently once they have the foundation with which to do so.
Oh but I do matt, they're operating just as they always have when it comes to payroll.

I take it straight from the horse's mouth:

DeWitt III's "revenue machine" comment....

-In September 2025, a prior quote from Bill DeWitt III resurfaced on social media, where he had said that the Cardinals turn their "revenue machine into a payroll machine". He made this comment in response to fans suggesting that lower attendance would pressure owners to spend more. He implied that lower attendance would instead logically lead to less revenue and therefore a smaller payroll.

-DeWitt Jr.'s "revenue game" comment: In January 2025, Bill DeWitt Jr. also connected the two concepts, stating, "It’s a revenue game... If you have more revenue, you have an opportunity to spend more money".
Yes, while they are rebuilding, expect wins, attendance and payroll to all go down. We all know that. That will be true for 2026, 2027, etc.

But that still doesn't logically say exactly what happens when the roster has been rebuilt and they are ready to be competitive again. That doesn't say they won't "forward spend" by a year to add to the roster before they expect attendance to bounce back up to 2.5, 3 million.
We're in agreement 2026, maybe even 2027 could be rough while they re-build.

I'm just hoping they minimize the attendance damage, hoping Bloom can make some wise trades like he did in Boston (re: TGKS, Pivetta) and they win enough to keep attendance from cratering.

If the payroll falls to $100M............the roster is rebuilt (successfully)...........and payroll goes back to $170-180M...........is that really enough to compete when the #10 payroll will likely be in the $230+M range by then?
We agree that, ultimately, payroll needs to rebound long term to around 10th, 11th in MLB - whatever that is 3, 4, 5 years from now.
Sadly I'm not sure BDWJr, even w/3+M attendance, will ever go to that level (10th-11th which in 2027 could be over $230+M).

Even w/Bloom doing a great job and the system funneling a quality prospect or two to the ML roster every year I could see Dewitt holding the 26 man line at $180-185M.

Hope I'm wrong and an aging Bill wants to win one more time and goes to the #10/#11 payroll level.
rockondlouie
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Re: The fundamental question for the Cardinals rebuild

Post by rockondlouie »

2ninr wrote: 04 Oct 2025 13:58 pm
scoutyjones2 wrote: 04 Oct 2025 09:24 am
2ninr wrote: 04 Oct 2025 06:05 am
scoutyjones2 wrote: 03 Oct 2025 16:55 pm
2ninr wrote: 03 Oct 2025 12:22 pm Everyone's hope is Westerholt and Doyle are going to be at least that. But we need more than just those two. We really have forgot what a strong roster looks like when Burleson and Donovan are our best hitters along with Herrera.
WillyCon
For some reason I forget about Willy. You think they trade him?
No. Only leader on the team and wants to be here
If we had 3 or 4 Willys it would be a different conversation. As long as a couple of them were outfielders. I would most definitely trade Burleson AND Donovan for a 25 year old Willy who could play a corner adequately.
+1

I'd love to have 3 or 4 more players w/WillyC's talent and fire.
Shady
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Re: The fundamental question for the Cardinals rebuild

Post by Shady »

rockondlouie wrote: 04 Oct 2025 14:01 pm
2ninr wrote: 04 Oct 2025 13:58 pm
scoutyjones2 wrote: 04 Oct 2025 09:24 am
2ninr wrote: 04 Oct 2025 06:05 am
scoutyjones2 wrote: 03 Oct 2025 16:55 pm
2ninr wrote: 03 Oct 2025 12:22 pm Everyone's hope is Westerholt and Doyle are going to be at least that. But we need more than just those two. We really have forgot what a strong roster looks like when Burleson and Donovan are our best hitters along with Herrera.
WillyCon
For some reason I forget about Willy. You think they trade him?
No. Only leader on the team and wants to be here
If we had 3 or 4 Willys it would be a different conversation. As long as a couple of them were outfielders. I would most definitely trade Burleson AND Donovan for a 25 year old Willy who could play a corner adequately.
+1

I'd love to have 3 or 4 more players w/WillyC's talent and fire.
That would be good. If they didn't spend a lot of time on the DL. And didn't strike out so much against RHP sliders and sweepers out of the strike zone.
rockondlouie
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Re: The fundamental question for the Cardinals rebuild

Post by rockondlouie »

Shady wrote: 04 Oct 2025 14:23 pm
rockondlouie wrote: 04 Oct 2025 14:01 pm
2ninr wrote: 04 Oct 2025 13:58 pm
scoutyjones2 wrote: 04 Oct 2025 09:24 am
2ninr wrote: 04 Oct 2025 06:05 am
scoutyjones2 wrote: 03 Oct 2025 16:55 pm
2ninr wrote: 03 Oct 2025 12:22 pm Everyone's hope is Westerholt and Doyle are going to be at least that. But we need more than just those two. We really have forgot what a strong roster looks like when Burleson and Donovan are our best hitters along with Herrera.
WillyCon
For some reason I forget about Willy. You think they trade him?
No. Only leader on the team and wants to be here
If we had 3 or 4 Willys it would be a different conversation. As long as a couple of them were outfielders. I would most definitely trade Burleson AND Donovan for a 25 year old Willy who could play a corner adequately.
+1

I'd love to have 3 or 4 more players w/WillyC's talent and fire.
That would be good. If they didn't spend a lot of time on the DL. And didn't strike out so much against RHP sliders and sweepers out of the strike zone.
You are aware WillyC had 563 PA's this season, the MOST he's ever had in his career. :roll:
Mort Gage
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Re: The fundamental question for the Cardinals rebuild

Post by Mort Gage »

Quincy Varnish wrote: 04 Oct 2025 11:45 am
Mort Gage wrote: 04 Oct 2025 05:33 am
Quincy Varnish wrote: 04 Oct 2025 00:27 am
An Old Friend wrote: 03 Oct 2025 22:05 pm
Shady wrote: 03 Oct 2025 17:03 pm
2ninr wrote: 03 Oct 2025 12:22 pm Everyone's hope is Westerholt and Doyle are going to be at least that. But we need more than just those two. We really have forgot what a strong roster looks like when Burleson and Donovan are our best hitters along with Herrera.
Please name ten lefty hitters in the NL, besides Ohtani, Soto and Harper, you would rather have than Donovan and Burleson. Point is, Donovan and Burleson would likely be in the top ten as lefty hitters, overall.
Kyle Schwarber
Freddie Freeman
Corbin Carroll
Matt Olson
James Wood
Rafael Devers
Kyle Tucker
Michael Busch
Kyle Stowers
Jakob Marsee

What do I win?
You may have forgotten…

Corey Seager
Gunnar Henderson
Nick Kurtz
Jazz Chisholm
Yelich
PCA
Bellinger
Duran
He did say NL, but Yelich and PCA are better, as well. Despite being proven wrong Shady will do his little victory dance and ask some variation of the same question again soon.
Burleson is easily in the top 10 of all-time Cardinals born on November 25th, if you ignore several players.

Know who else was born on November 25th?

Joe DiMaggio.

Think about that for a minute.

Image
As were hard hittin' Mark Whiten and Octavio Dotel. I see a 4 HR game and a WS ring in Burleson's future. Maybe a 56 game hitting streak. The possibilities are limitless.
2ninr
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Re: The fundamental question for the Cardinals rebuild

Post by 2ninr »

Shady wrote: 04 Oct 2025 14:23 pm
rockondlouie wrote: 04 Oct 2025 14:01 pm
2ninr wrote: 04 Oct 2025 13:58 pm
scoutyjones2 wrote: 04 Oct 2025 09:24 am
2ninr wrote: 04 Oct 2025 06:05 am
scoutyjones2 wrote: 03 Oct 2025 16:55 pm
2ninr wrote: 03 Oct 2025 12:22 pm Everyone's hope is Westerholt and Doyle are going to be at least that. But we need more than just those two. We really have forgot what a strong roster looks like when Burleson and Donovan are our best hitters along with Herrera.
WillyCon
For some reason I forget about Willy. You think they trade him?
No. Only leader on the team and wants to be here
If we had 3 or 4 Willys it would be a different conversation. As long as a couple of them were outfielders. I would most definitely trade Burleson AND Donovan for a 25 year old Willy who could play a corner adequately.
+1

I'd love to have 3 or 4 more players w/WillyC's talent and fire.
That would be good. If they didn't spend a lot of time on the DL. And didn't strike out so much against RHP sliders and sweepers out of the strike zone.
Shady- Don't make snarky remarks about Wiily trying to build up Burleson. Burleson is a good hitter. Has been since little league. You didn't discover him.

Open this link. Go to the bottom and click on a stat. Ex. Hr (homeruns) Than scroll back to the top. You will find that Burleson and Willy are very close in most important categories. ***** Batting average is not considered as important as hr ops slg obp in today's game.

2025 Cardinals Player Hitting Stat Leaders | St. Louis Cardinals https://share.google/tu8LNxFUic46oClu7
Mort Gage
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Re: The fundamental question for the Cardinals rebuild

Post by Mort Gage »

2ninr wrote: 04 Oct 2025 16:37 pm
Shady wrote: 04 Oct 2025 14:23 pm
rockondlouie wrote: 04 Oct 2025 14:01 pm
2ninr wrote: 04 Oct 2025 13:58 pm
scoutyjones2 wrote: 04 Oct 2025 09:24 am
2ninr wrote: 04 Oct 2025 06:05 am
scoutyjones2 wrote: 03 Oct 2025 16:55 pm
2ninr wrote: 03 Oct 2025 12:22 pm Everyone's hope is Westerholt and Doyle are going to be at least that. But we need more than just those two. We really have forgot what a strong roster looks like when Burleson and Donovan are our best hitters along with Herrera.
WillyCon
For some reason I forget about Willy. You think they trade him?
No. Only leader on the team and wants to be here
If we had 3 or 4 Willys it would be a different conversation. As long as a couple of them were outfielders. I would most definitely trade Burleson AND Donovan for a 25 year old Willy who could play a corner adequately.
+1

I'd love to have 3 or 4 more players w/WillyC's talent and fire.
That would be good. If they didn't spend a lot of time on the DL. And didn't strike out so much against RHP sliders and sweepers out of the strike zone.
Shady- Don't make snarky remarks about Wiily trying to build up Burleson. Burleson is a good hitter. Has been since little league. You didn't discover him.
Shady doesn't like Contreras because he blocks Burleson from 1B. This terrifies Shady as it makes his superhero Burleson a trade candidate. It has nothing to do with Contreras himself.
An Old Friend
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Re: The fundamental question for the Cardinals rebuild

Post by An Old Friend »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 04 Oct 2025 09:18 am
rockondlouie wrote: 04 Oct 2025 08:38 am Z. Gallen (going into his age 30 season) is a FA and has reached that level in 2022 & 2023.
So what is Gallen going to cost this offseason?

If MLB teams in general believe Gallen is a 4+ fWAR SP (like he was in 2022 and 2023, but not 2024 and 2025), you're looking at maybe a Corbin Burnes type deal (6 yrs./$180 million) AND giving up a draft pick because he'll get a QO.

Gallen replaces Gray, but they couldn't win with Gray and the current roster. So are they going to be able to win now at the front end of Gallen's deal when he's 30, 31, 32? If not, is he going to become another overpaid declining asset at the back end of that deal which actually keeps them from being as competitive as they could be when they maybe have more developed young players in 2029, 2030, 2031?

Why not wait until you see Weatherholt demonstrate that he's likely to be that 5+ fWAR player based on his 2026 and/or 2027 and THEN sign your "Zac Gallen" after the 2027 season when you know you are closer to ready to compete?

The problem with making a big, splashy, $30 million AAV signing shouldn't come in the first year after you sign them, it comes later because anyone you are signing for that kind of AAV is going to require you to commit to 3, 5, 7 years, not just one.
Gallen isn’t going to get half of what Burnes signed for.
CCard
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Re: The fundamental question for the Cardinals rebuild

Post by CCard »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 04 Oct 2025 06:25 am
CCard wrote: 04 Oct 2025 06:20 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 03 Oct 2025 12:07 pm When can they develop a cost controlled ~5+ fWAR position player and ~4+ fWAR starting pitcher to build around?

The Cardinals have been developing some (but maybe not enough) complementary talent in young position players and SPs who are 2-3 fWAR players. What they haven't done is develop position players who would be in the ~Top 20 of all MLB players or pitchers who would be in the ~Top 15 of all MLB SPs. They have to have a couple of top end talent players who they aren't paying $25, $30, $35, etc. million a year for. They can't assemble enough talent if all of their top end players are Goldschmidt, Arenado, Gray type veterans who they are sinking ~35-40% of their payroll in.

Identifying, acquiring, and developing at least a couple of cost controlled top end talent players is probably the Cardinals single biggest need as part of this rebuild.
Because that's what playoff teams do. That's sarcasm. It would be great to have a young superstar but they don't grow on trees. Weatherholt may fit that bill but he could just as easily flop. Waiting and losing is not the optimal situation for fans and no guarantee of success. We've been down this road before though and you're going to believe what you want. A payroll of around $200 million gives this team a fighting chance with the right signings. The fans deserve it. Imagine 1 TOTR starter to pair with Gray, one big rbi bat in the outfield and 1-2 top relievers. This team would be in the playoffs without Weatherholt. It can easily be done if the purse strings are loosened.
Or if/when that group fails because there isn't enough present, cost controlled depth, they could tie themselves to another several years of expensive, declining players (like Arenado, Goldschmidt, Gray, etc.) and doom their ability to compete for multiple additional seasons.
That's why the Yankee's have so many Championships. Because they developed cheap cost controlled talent. LOL
Shady
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Re: The fundamental question for the Cardinals rebuild

Post by Shady »

I feel Bloom would trade Contreras in an instant if he could. Then install a similar-type stat, but younger and cheaper, talent in Burleson at 1B. Hopefully getting a much needed, decent pitcher, at a similar salary to Contreras, in return.
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Re: The fundamental question for the Cardinals rebuild

Post by ecleme22 »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 03 Oct 2025 12:07 pm When can they develop a cost controlled ~5+ fWAR position player and ~4+ fWAR starting pitcher to build around?

The Cardinals have been developing some (but maybe not enough) complementary talent in young position players and SPs who are 2-3 fWAR players. What they haven't done is develop position players who would be in the ~Top 20 of all MLB players or pitchers who would be in the ~Top 15 of all MLB SPs. They have to have a couple of top end talent players who they aren't paying $25, $30, $35, etc. million a year for. They can't assemble enough talent if all of their top end players are Goldschmidt, Arenado, Gray type veterans who they are sinking ~35-40% of their payroll in.

Identifying, acquiring, and developing at least a couple of cost controlled top end talent players is probably the Cardinals single biggest need as part of this rebuild.
I think you give the Cards way too much credit for the org developing complimentary position players /starters.


Of course we all want 4-5 WAR players, but how about we start with not developing misfit toys like Thompson, Walker and others.

For example, how welcome would’ve circa 2011 Jay been for this team?
mattmitchl44
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Re: The fundamental question for the Cardinals rebuild

Post by mattmitchl44 »

CCard wrote: 06 Oct 2025 11:40 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 04 Oct 2025 06:25 am
CCard wrote: 04 Oct 2025 06:20 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 03 Oct 2025 12:07 pm When can they develop a cost controlled ~5+ fWAR position player and ~4+ fWAR starting pitcher to build around?

The Cardinals have been developing some (but maybe not enough) complementary talent in young position players and SPs who are 2-3 fWAR players. What they haven't done is develop position players who would be in the ~Top 20 of all MLB players or pitchers who would be in the ~Top 15 of all MLB SPs. They have to have a couple of top end talent players who they aren't paying $25, $30, $35, etc. million a year for. They can't assemble enough talent if all of their top end players are Goldschmidt, Arenado, Gray type veterans who they are sinking ~35-40% of their payroll in.

Identifying, acquiring, and developing at least a couple of cost controlled top end talent players is probably the Cardinals single biggest need as part of this rebuild.
Because that's what playoff teams do. That's sarcasm. It would be great to have a young superstar but they don't grow on trees. Weatherholt may fit that bill but he could just as easily flop. Waiting and losing is not the optimal situation for fans and no guarantee of success. We've been down this road before though and you're going to believe what you want. A payroll of around $200 million gives this team a fighting chance with the right signings. The fans deserve it. Imagine 1 TOTR starter to pair with Gray, one big rbi bat in the outfield and 1-2 top relievers. This team would be in the playoffs without Weatherholt. It can easily be done if the purse strings are loosened.
Or if/when that group fails because there isn't enough present, cost controlled depth, they could tie themselves to another several years of expensive, declining players (like Arenado, Goldschmidt, Gray, etc.) and doom their ability to compete for multiple additional seasons.
That's why the Yankee's have so many Championships. Because they developed cheap cost controlled talent. LOL
The Cardinals, with a payroll in the best of circumstances at least $100 million less than the Yankees, can't seek to win the way the Yankees do.
CCard
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Re: The fundamental question for the Cardinals rebuild

Post by CCard »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 06 Oct 2025 18:36 pm
CCard wrote: 06 Oct 2025 11:40 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 04 Oct 2025 06:25 am
CCard wrote: 04 Oct 2025 06:20 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 03 Oct 2025 12:07 pm When can they develop a cost controlled ~5+ fWAR position player and ~4+ fWAR starting pitcher to build around?

The Cardinals have been developing some (but maybe not enough) complementary talent in young position players and SPs who are 2-3 fWAR players. What they haven't done is develop position players who would be in the ~Top 20 of all MLB players or pitchers who would be in the ~Top 15 of all MLB SPs. They have to have a couple of top end talent players who they aren't paying $25, $30, $35, etc. million a year for. They can't assemble enough talent if all of their top end players are Goldschmidt, Arenado, Gray type veterans who they are sinking ~35-40% of their payroll in.

Identifying, acquiring, and developing at least a couple of cost controlled top end talent players is probably the Cardinals single biggest need as part of this rebuild.
Because that's what playoff teams do. That's sarcasm. It would be great to have a young superstar but they don't grow on trees. Weatherholt may fit that bill but he could just as easily flop. Waiting and losing is not the optimal situation for fans and no guarantee of success. We've been down this road before though and you're going to believe what you want. A payroll of around $200 million gives this team a fighting chance with the right signings. The fans deserve it. Imagine 1 TOTR starter to pair with Gray, one big rbi bat in the outfield and 1-2 top relievers. This team would be in the playoffs without Weatherholt. It can easily be done if the purse strings are loosened.
Or if/when that group fails because there isn't enough present, cost controlled depth, they could tie themselves to another several years of expensive, declining players (like Arenado, Goldschmidt, Gray, etc.) and doom their ability to compete for multiple additional seasons.
That's why the Yankee's have so many Championships. Because they developed cheap cost controlled talent. LOL
The Cardinals, with a payroll in the best of circumstances at least $100 million less than the Yankees, can't seek to win the way the Yankees do.
It has to be competitive though. You can't spend a like a cheapskate and expect to be competitive. They should always have a top 10 payroll. They win, they draw 3 million. Spend the money on talent to be competitive.
mattmitchl44
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Re: The fundamental question for the Cardinals rebuild

Post by mattmitchl44 »

CCard wrote: 06 Oct 2025 21:24 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 06 Oct 2025 18:36 pm
CCard wrote: 06 Oct 2025 11:40 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 04 Oct 2025 06:25 am
CCard wrote: 04 Oct 2025 06:20 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 03 Oct 2025 12:07 pm When can they develop a cost controlled ~5+ fWAR position player and ~4+ fWAR starting pitcher to build around?

The Cardinals have been developing some (but maybe not enough) complementary talent in young position players and SPs who are 2-3 fWAR players. What they haven't done is develop position players who would be in the ~Top 20 of all MLB players or pitchers who would be in the ~Top 15 of all MLB SPs. They have to have a couple of top end talent players who they aren't paying $25, $30, $35, etc. million a year for. They can't assemble enough talent if all of their top end players are Goldschmidt, Arenado, Gray type veterans who they are sinking ~35-40% of their payroll in.

Identifying, acquiring, and developing at least a couple of cost controlled top end talent players is probably the Cardinals single biggest need as part of this rebuild.
Because that's what playoff teams do. That's sarcasm. It would be great to have a young superstar but they don't grow on trees. Weatherholt may fit that bill but he could just as easily flop. Waiting and losing is not the optimal situation for fans and no guarantee of success. We've been down this road before though and you're going to believe what you want. A payroll of around $200 million gives this team a fighting chance with the right signings. The fans deserve it. Imagine 1 TOTR starter to pair with Gray, one big rbi bat in the outfield and 1-2 top relievers. This team would be in the playoffs without Weatherholt. It can easily be done if the purse strings are loosened.
Or if/when that group fails because there isn't enough present, cost controlled depth, they could tie themselves to another several years of expensive, declining players (like Arenado, Goldschmidt, Gray, etc.) and doom their ability to compete for multiple additional seasons.
That's why the Yankee's have so many Championships. Because they developed cheap cost controlled talent. LOL
The Cardinals, with a payroll in the best of circumstances at least $100 million less than the Yankees, can't seek to win the way the Yankees do.
It has to be competitive though. You can't spend a like a cheapskate and expect to be competitive. They should always have a top 10 payroll. They win, they draw 3 million. Spend the money on talent to be competitive.
Again, everyone agrees that the Cardinals - eventually - have to get back to spending at a rate where they have typically been, around 10th or 11th in MLB. But without the necessary critical mass of young talent, trying to spend to that level right now just gets them to a slightly better level of mediocrity, not a 90, 92, 95 win team that can be truly competitive.

So, no, they don't ALWAYS have to spend to that level - they have to spend to that level when they are actually ready to "win now" because they have critical mass of young talent in place as the foundation which they can add to with a few, high priced veterans.
sikeston bulldog2
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Re: The fundamental question for the Cardinals rebuild

Post by sikeston bulldog2 »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 07 Oct 2025 04:21 am
CCard wrote: 06 Oct 2025 21:24 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 06 Oct 2025 18:36 pm
CCard wrote: 06 Oct 2025 11:40 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 04 Oct 2025 06:25 am
CCard wrote: 04 Oct 2025 06:20 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 03 Oct 2025 12:07 pm When can they develop a cost controlled ~5+ fWAR position player and ~4+ fWAR starting pitcher to build around?

The Cardinals have been developing some (but maybe not enough) complementary talent in young position players and SPs who are 2-3 fWAR players. What they haven't done is develop position players who would be in the ~Top 20 of all MLB players or pitchers who would be in the ~Top 15 of all MLB SPs. They have to have a couple of top end talent players who they aren't paying $25, $30, $35, etc. million a year for. They can't assemble enough talent if all of their top end players are Goldschmidt, Arenado, Gray type veterans who they are sinking ~35-40% of their payroll in.

Identifying, acquiring, and developing at least a couple of cost controlled top end talent players is probably the Cardinals single biggest need as part of this rebuild.
Because that's what playoff teams do. That's sarcasm. It would be great to have a young superstar but they don't grow on trees. Weatherholt may fit that bill but he could just as easily flop. Waiting and losing is not the optimal situation for fans and no guarantee of success. We've been down this road before though and you're going to believe what you want. A payroll of around $200 million gives this team a fighting chance with the right signings. The fans deserve it. Imagine 1 TOTR starter to pair with Gray, one big rbi bat in the outfield and 1-2 top relievers. This team would be in the playoffs without Weatherholt. It can easily be done if the purse strings are loosened.
Or if/when that group fails because there isn't enough present, cost controlled depth, they could tie themselves to another several years of expensive, declining players (like Arenado, Goldschmidt, Gray, etc.) and doom their ability to compete for multiple additional seasons.
That's why the Yankee's have so many Championships. Because they developed cheap cost controlled talent. LOL
The Cardinals, with a payroll in the best of circumstances at least $100 million less than the Yankees, can't seek to win the way the Yankees do.
It has to be competitive though. You can't spend a like a cheapskate and expect to be competitive. They should always have a top 10 payroll. They win, they draw 3 million. Spend the money on talent to be competitive.
Again, everyone agrees that the Cardinals - eventually - have to get back to spending at a rate where they have typically been, around 10th or 11th in MLB. But without the necessary critical mass of young talent, trying to spend to that level right now just gets them to a slightly better level of mediocrity, not a 90, 92, 95 win team that can be truly competitive.

So, no, they don't ALWAYS have to spend to that level - they have to spend to that level when they are actually ready to "win now" because they have critical mass of young talent in place as the foundation which they can add to with a few, high priced veterans.
Very good write. I like it.
CCard
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Re: The fundamental question for the Cardinals rebuild

Post by CCard »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 07 Oct 2025 04:21 am
CCard wrote: 06 Oct 2025 21:24 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 06 Oct 2025 18:36 pm
CCard wrote: 06 Oct 2025 11:40 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 04 Oct 2025 06:25 am
CCard wrote: 04 Oct 2025 06:20 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 03 Oct 2025 12:07 pm When can they develop a cost controlled ~5+ fWAR position player and ~4+ fWAR starting pitcher to build around?

The Cardinals have been developing some (but maybe not enough) complementary talent in young position players and SPs who are 2-3 fWAR players. What they haven't done is develop position players who would be in the ~Top 20 of all MLB players or pitchers who would be in the ~Top 15 of all MLB SPs. They have to have a couple of top end talent players who they aren't paying $25, $30, $35, etc. million a year for. They can't assemble enough talent if all of their top end players are Goldschmidt, Arenado, Gray type veterans who they are sinking ~35-40% of their payroll in.

Identifying, acquiring, and developing at least a couple of cost controlled top end talent players is probably the Cardinals single biggest need as part of this rebuild.
Because that's what playoff teams do. That's sarcasm. It would be great to have a young superstar but they don't grow on trees. Weatherholt may fit that bill but he could just as easily flop. Waiting and losing is not the optimal situation for fans and no guarantee of success. We've been down this road before though and you're going to believe what you want. A payroll of around $200 million gives this team a fighting chance with the right signings. The fans deserve it. Imagine 1 TOTR starter to pair with Gray, one big rbi bat in the outfield and 1-2 top relievers. This team would be in the playoffs without Weatherholt. It can easily be done if the purse strings are loosened.
Or if/when that group fails because there isn't enough present, cost controlled depth, they could tie themselves to another several years of expensive, declining players (like Arenado, Goldschmidt, Gray, etc.) and doom their ability to compete for multiple additional seasons.
That's why the Yankee's have so many Championships. Because they developed cheap cost controlled talent. LOL
The Cardinals, with a payroll in the best of circumstances at least $100 million less than the Yankees, can't seek to win the way the Yankees do.
It has to be competitive though. You can't spend a like a cheapskate and expect to be competitive. They should always have a top 10 payroll. They win, they draw 3 million. Spend the money on talent to be competitive.
Again, everyone agrees that the Cardinals - eventually - have to get back to spending at a rate where they have typically been, around 10th or 11th in MLB. But without the necessary critical mass of young talent, trying to spend to that level right now just gets them to a slightly better level of mediocrity, not a 90, 92, 95 win team that can be truly competitive.

So, no, they don't ALWAYS have to spend to that level - they have to spend to that level when they are actually ready to "win now" because they have critical mass of young talent in place as the foundation which they can add to with a few, high priced veterans.
If history has taught us anything it's that the goal is to reach the playoffs. Once there anything can happen. The Cards weren't favored in any of their world series wins since probably the 60's. Yet there are the trophy's. This juggernaut building you and others lust after is a figment. First, to get the talent you have to lose and lose and lose. Secondly, if you draft great, they still have to develop and reach the major's relatively uniformly. We know that's not common. Thirdly, you have a small window before you have to do it all over again and hope for the best. Or, bear with me here, you could develop and sign enough talent to get you to the dance and see what happens. I prefer the playoffs year in and year out as opposed to the regularly scheduled losing. Why would anyone but a cheapskate do that to the fan base? I know the Mets didn't make it in, but give me an owner like the Mets any day. Or the Dodgers, or the Padres, or the Phillies. At least they are willing to spend to increase talent levels enough to try to make the playoffs instead of some sob story about how there isn't enough coaches in the minor leagues. Blah
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