The fundamental question for the Cardinals rebuild

[mattmitchl44]

Z. Gallen (going into his age 30 season) is a FA and has reached that level in 2022 & 2023.

So what is Gallen going to cost this offseason?

If MLB teams in general believe Gallen is a 4+ fWAR SP (like he was in 2022 and 2023, but not 2024 and 2025), you're looking at maybe a Corbin Burnes type deal (6 yrs./$180 million) AND giving up a draft pick because he'll get a QO.

Gallen replaces Gray, but they couldn't win with Gray and the current roster. So are they going to be able to win now at the front end of Gallen's deal when he's 30, 31, 32? If not, is he going to become another overpaid declining asset at the back end of that deal which actually keeps them from being as competitive as they could be when they maybe have more developed young players in 2029, 2030, 2031?

Why not wait until you see Weatherholt demonstrate that he's likely to be that 5+ fWAR player based on his 2026 and/or 2027 and THEN sign your "Zac Gallen" after the 2027 season when you know you are closer to ready to compete?

The problem with making a big, splashy, $30 million AAV signing shouldn't come in the first year after you sign them, it comes later because anyone you are signing for that kind of AAV is going to require you to commit to 3, 5, 7 years, not just one.

[scoutyjones2]

Everyone's hope is Westerholt and Doyle are going to be at least that. But we need more than just those two. We really have forgot what a strong roster looks like when Burleson and Donovan are our best hitters along with Herrera.

WillyCon

For some reason I forget about Willy. You think they trade him?

No. Only leader on the team and wants to be here

[Shady]

Everyone's hope is Westerholt and Doyle are going to be at least that. But we need more than just those two. We really have forgot what a strong roster looks like when Burleson and Donovan are our best hitters along with Herrera.

Please name ten lefty hitters in the NL, besides Ohtani, Soto and Harper, you would rather have than Donovan and Burleson. Point is, Donovan and Burleson would likely be in the top ten as lefty hitters, overall.

Kyle Schwarber
Freddie Freeman
Corbin Carroll
Matt Olson
James Wood
Rafael Devers
Kyle Tucker
Michael Busch
Kyle Stowers
Jakob Marsee

What do I win?

Only Freeman was in the top ten in NL batting average.

Schwarber hit 56 HR with 132 RBI
Carroll hit 31 HR and had 32 SB
Stowers hit .288 to Burleson's .290 but had 25 HR and a .544 SLG (to Burleson's .459)
Tucker had 22 HR and 25 SB
Wood is a young phenom with 31 HR, 15 SB, 94 RBI
Devers had 35 HR with 109 RBI
Marsee hit .292 (higher than Burleson's .290) and had 19 HR and 61 SB between AAA and the majors

Why do many of those players have inferior BA's to Burleson and Donovan? Is it because they go for more slug?

[Mort Gage]

Everyone's hope is Westerholt and Doyle are going to be at least that. But we need more than just those two. We really have forgot what a strong roster looks like when Burleson and Donovan are our best hitters along with Herrera.

Please name ten lefty hitters in the NL, besides Ohtani, Soto and Harper, you would rather have than Donovan and Burleson. Point is, Donovan and Burleson would likely be in the top ten as lefty hitters, overall.

Kyle Schwarber
Freddie Freeman
Corbin Carroll
Matt Olson
James Wood
Rafael Devers
Kyle Tucker
Michael Busch
Kyle Stowers
Jakob Marsee

What do I win?

Only Freeman was in the top ten in NL batting average.

Schwarber hit 56 HR with 132 RBI
Carroll hit 31 HR and had 32 SB
Stowers hit .288 to Burleson's .290 but had 25 HR and a .544 SLG (to Burleson's .459)
Tucker had 22 HR and 25 SB
Wood is a young phenom with 31 HR, 15 SB, 94 RBI
Devers had 35 HR with 109 RBI
Marsee hit .292 (higher than Burleson's .290) and had 19 HR and 61 SB between AAA and the majors

Why do many of those players have inferior BA's to Burleson and Donovan? Is it because they go for more slug?

1) Batting averages are publicly available. Get off your lazy duff and look them up yourself.

2) Again, your question was about LH NL hitters you'd rather have, not who has the highest BA. Stop moving the goalposts.

[rockondlouie]

Z. Gallen (going into his age 30 season) is a FA and has reached that level in 2022 & 2023.

So what is Gallen going to cost this offseason?

If MLB teams in general believe Gallen is a 4+ fWAR SP (like he was in 2022 and 2023, but not 2024 and 2025), you're looking at maybe a Corbin Burnes type deal (6 yrs./$180 million) AND giving up a draft pick because he'll get a QO.

Gallen replaces Gray, but they couldn't win with Gray and the current roster. So are they going to be able to win now at the front end of Gallen's deal when he's 30, 31, 32? If not, is he going to become another overpaid declining asset at the back end of that deal which actually keeps them from being as competitive as they could be when they maybe have more developed young players in 2029, 2030, 2031?

Why not wait until you see Weatherholt demonstrate that he's likely to be that 5+ fWAR player based on his 2026 and/or 2027 and THEN sign your "Zac Gallen" after the 2027 season when you know you are closer to ready to compete?

The problem with making a big, splashy, $30 million AAV signing shouldn't come in the first year after you sign them, it comes later because anyone you are signing for that kind of AAV is going to require you to commit to 3, 5, 7 years, not just one.

Good question

Given he had a down 2025 could his price be within BDWJr's range if he sheds the bulk of Gray's salary + some of NADO's?

That said, he was a true ACE from 2019 - 2024 (143 GS: 3.29 ERA/1.13 WHiP/9.8 SO9) so he's not going to come cheap.

I could see $165+M/6 yrs being close to his asking price and I'm not worried about losing a draft pick if we can acquire a true ACE for the bulk of the next six seasons.

The addition of JJW on OD 2026 (our best shot at that 5 fWAR regular from within the system) and a (hopefully) healthy I. Hererra for 600 PA's makes the lineup in 2026 much better than the 2025 lineup even if they deal away B. Donovan or Noot.

Removing J. Walker (starts at AAA) is another upgrade.

As for the rotation, a much younger Gallen is a better pitcher than 2025 S. Gray, so upgrade.

And having McG in the rotation all season vs having E. Fedde, A. Pallante and M. Mikolas is a huge upgrade over the three 5.00+ ERA liabilities.

IMO Bloom will use Donny or Noot to acquire a minor league ready starting pitcher or a young major league starter he feels has upside to fill out the rotation.

No reason to "wait" since these moves don't hamper the minor league system in the least, Bloom can continue to acquire prospects via the draft & trades while the improvements listed above allows the team to compete in 2026.

By competing in 2026, w/o sacrificing the LT goal of building through the system, BDWJr can stem the massive attendance losses and would have a shot at drawing 2.5+M.

Remember matt, BDWJr always ties payroll to attendance.

If it continues to slide in 2026/2027, then he's NOT going to ever get back to the Top 10-12 you're hoping for.

JMO

[Mort Gage]

Everyone's hope is Westerholt and Doyle are going to be at least that. But we need more than just those two. We really have forgot what a strong roster looks like when Burleson and Donovan are our best hitters along with Herrera.

Please name ten lefty hitters in the NL, besides Ohtani, Soto and Harper, you would rather have than Donovan and Burleson. Point is, Donovan and Burleson would likely be in the top ten as lefty hitters, overall.

Kyle Schwarber
Freddie Freeman
Corbin Carroll
Matt Olson
James Wood
Rafael Devers
Kyle Tucker
Michael Busch
Kyle Stowers
Jakob Marsee

What do I win?

Only Freeman was in the top ten in NL batting average.

Schwarber hit 56 HR with 132 RBI
Carroll hit 31 HR and had 32 SB
Stowers hit .288 to Burleson's .290 but had 25 HR and a .544 SLG (to Burleson's .459)
Tucker had 22 HR and 25 SB
Wood is a young phenom with 31 HR, 15 SB, 94 RBI
Devers had 35 HR with 109 RBI
Marsee hit .292 (higher than Burleson's .290) and had 19 HR and 61 SB between AAA and the majors

Why do many of those players have inferior BA's to Burleson and Donovan? Is it because they go for more slug?

1) Batting averages are publicly available. Get off your lazy duff and look them up yourself.

2) Again, your question was about LH NL hitters you'd rather have, not who has the highest BA. Stop moving the goalposts.

Correction to #1, I see now you asked why some have lower BAs. I'll guess it's because their base hit to AB ratio was lower.

[NYCardsFan]

Everyone's hope is Westerholt and Doyle are going to be at least that. But we need more than just those two. We really have forgot what a strong roster looks like when Burleson and Donovan are our best hitters along with Herrera.

Please name ten lefty hitters in the NL, besides Ohtani, Soto and Harper, you would rather have than Donovan and Burleson. Point is, Donovan and Burleson would likely be in the top ten as lefty hitters, overall.

Kyle Schwarber
Freddie Freeman
Corbin Carroll
Matt Olson
James Wood
Rafael Devers
Kyle Tucker
Michael Busch
Kyle Stowers
Jakob Marsee

What do I win?

Only Freeman was in the top ten in NL batting average.

Schwarber hit 56 HR with 132 RBI
Carroll hit 31 HR and had 32 SB
Stowers hit .288 to Burleson's .290 but had 25 HR and a .544 SLG (to Burleson's .459)
Tucker had 22 HR and 25 SB
Wood is a young phenom with 31 HR, 15 SB, 94 RBI
Devers had 35 HR with 109 RBI
Marsee hit .292 (higher than Burleson's .290) and had 19 HR and 61 SB between AAA and the majors

Why do many of those players have inferior BA's to Burleson and Donovan? Is it because they go for more slug?

Gee, Shady, maybe—just maybe—batting average isn’t the be-all and end-all, and players (and teams) actually aim to maximize total production. Yeah, I know, crazy thought . . .

[Shady]

Last season Burleson led the team in RBI at 25. This season he led the team in BA at 26. Maybe next season it will be in HRs. It could happen. He's trending up. Some don't seem to appreciate what he's accomplished. I do. Burleson has tremendous value to the organization. It will be interesting to see if Bloom can find a better hitter than Burleson for the #3 slot in the lineup.

[NYCardsFan]

Last season Burleson led the team in RBIs. This season he led the team in BA. Maybe next season it will be in HRs. It could happen. He's trending up. Some don't seem to appreciate what he's accomplished. I do.

In what was his best season by far, he was a low-end starter (1.9/2.1 bWAR/fWAR).

In fact, his cumulative career-to-date—which is now three seasons—is equivalent to one season’s worth of production from a low-end starter (2.2/1.9 bWAR/fWAR).

Why do you have such difficulty coping with reality?

[mattmitchl44]

By competing in 2026, w/o sacrificing the LT goal of building through the system, BDWJr can stem the massive attendance losses and would have a shot at drawing 2.5+M.

Remember matt, BDWJr always ties payroll to attendance.

You keep tying everything to this.

As I've noted many times before, in going down the path they appear to be on, they should be prepared to have increasing spending LEAD a bounce back in attendance by one year when they are ready to exit this rebuilding phase.

Even if they slip to wins in the 60s/70s, attendance in the 1.5 million range, and payroll below $100 million in these rebuilding seasons, once they have established the necessary, new, young core of players in 2028, 2029, etc., they should first start to see wins pick up, even without increasing spending, into the 70s/80s. Once that happens, they then need to increase spending to supplement the talent they will have at that point - even if attendance hasn't yet rebounded. Then, after they have supplemented the roster by increasing spending, wins rise into the 80s/90s and attendance bounces back to 3+ million.

There is nothing that suggest they don't understand this is the path they are on.

[bccardsfan]

Last season Burleson led the team in RBIs. This season he led the team in BA. Maybe next season it will be in HRs. It could happen. He's trending up. Some don't seem to appreciate what he's accomplished. I do.

In what was his best season by far, he was a low-end starter (1.9/2.1 bWAR/fWAR).

In fact, his cumulative career-to-date—which is now three seasons—is equivalent to one season’s worth of production from a low-end starter (2.2/1.9 bWAR/fWAR).

Why do you have such difficulty coping with reality?

Because he will start three more threads today.... Yes, Burley is a complimentary piece. His WAR is dragged down by the fact that he is slow and therefore not a good OFer, although he does catch everything he gets to. His best position is 1B, but that is filled. He also has middling, not great power. He did manage .800 OPS. Again, he is one of the several complimentary players on the roster. Maybe IH turns into a great DH, maybe not. I think we see who Burley is. Not bad, but easily replaceable with another 2 WAR type. Certainly a trade chip if anyone offers you something of value. We need a good fielding power hitting third baseman, and a very good corner OF bat, along with starting pitching of course. We have an excess 1-2 WAR guys who cannot field and are best suited to DH. The off season will be interesting. Hopefully JJ can be a 3-4 WAR player at least, but he is probably going to 2B, not 3B. We shall see what happens.

[Shady]

Last season Burleson led the team in RBIs. This season he led the team in BA. Maybe next season it will be in HRs. It could happen. He's trending up. Some don't seem to appreciate what he's accomplished. I do.

In what was his best season by far, he was a low-end starter (1.9/2.1 bWAR/fWAR).

In fact, his cumulative career-to-date—which is now three seasons—is equivalent to one season’s worth of production from a low-end starter (2.2/1.9 bWAR/fWAR).

Why do you have such difficulty coping with reality?

Because he will start three more threads today.... Yes, Burley is a complimentary piece. His WAR is dragged down by the fact that he is slow and therefore not a good OFer, although he does catch everything he gets to. His best position is 1B, but that is filled. He also has middling, not great power. He did manage .800 OPS. Again, he is one of the several complimentary players on the roster. Maybe IH turns into a great DH, maybe not. I think we see who Burley is. Not bad, but easily replaceable with another 2 WAR type. Certainly a trade chip if anyone offers you something of value. We need a good fielding power hitting third baseman, and a very good corner OF bat, along with starting pitching of course. We have an excess 1-2 WAR guys who cannot field and are best suited to DH. The off season will be interesting. Hopefully JJ can be a 3-4 WAR player at least, but he is probably going to 2B, not 3B. We shall see what happens.

"He did manage .800 OPS". Isn't Burleson the first Cardinals' outfielder to accomplish that in the last 15 seasons? No doubt, many MLB teams would like to have Burleson's offensive production in their lineup. Especially, at his salary. I'm glad he's under contract with the Cardinals. If anybody isn't content with Burleson's production. Especially, compared to some more highly touted players. So be it.

[rockondlouie]

By competing in 2026, w/o sacrificing the LT goal of building through the system, BDWJr can stem the massive attendance losses and would have a shot at drawing 2.5+M.

Remember matt, BDWJr always ties payroll to attendance.

You keep tying everything to this.

As I've noted many times before, in going down the path they appear to be on, they should be prepared to have increasing spending LEAD a bounce back in attendance by one year when they are ready to exit this rebuilding phase.

Even if they slip to wins in the 60s/70s, attendance in the 1.5 million range, and payroll below $100 million in these rebuilding seasons, once they have established the necessary, new, young core of players in 2028, 2029, etc., they should first start to see wins pick up, even without increasing spending, into the 70s/80s. Once that happens, they then need to increase spending to supplement the talent they will have at that point - even if attendance hasn't yet rebounded. Then, after they have supplemented the roster by increasing spending, wins rise into the 80s/90s and attendance bounces back to 3+ million.

There is nothing that suggest they don't understand this is the path they are on.

I sure do matt....because it's TRUE!

Just as you keep tying losing for four, five or six seasons to future success and BDWJr taking the payroll into the Top 10-12 of MLB.

You may keep "noting it" but that's NOT how BDWJr's payroll operates and I'm surprised you don't know this.

He doesn't "increase payroll" to that Top 10-12 level again w/o first having the attendance (or at least close to it) that allows him to do so.

And what if slipping to the 60's/70's win level you seem obsessed with doesn't lead to having that core of home grown talent?

Then you will indeed see attendance drop to that 1.5+M level and a payroll near $100M for a long time.

Your premise for what should happen is based on the BEST possible outcome while ignoring the equal chance it fails.

Brining in a Z. Gallen type next year, while not neglecting the minor league player development long term goals, would at least give the 2026 team and beyond it's best shot at overachieving and keeping attendance from the FREE FALL it's been in for two years.

Again

BDWJr ties meaningful payroll increases FIRST to proven attendance increases, not the other way around as you keep suggesting.

[mattmitchl44]

By competing in 2026, w/o sacrificing the LT goal of building through the system, BDWJr can stem the massive attendance losses and would have a shot at drawing 2.5+M.

Remember matt, BDWJr always ties payroll to attendance.

You keep tying everything to this.

As I've noted many times before, in going down the path they appear to be on, they should be prepared to have increasing spending LEAD a bounce back in attendance by one year when they are ready to exit this rebuilding phase.

Even if they slip to wins in the 60s/70s, attendance in the 1.5 million range, and payroll below $100 million in these rebuilding seasons, once they have established the necessary, new, young core of players in 2028, 2029, etc., they should first start to see wins pick up, even without increasing spending, into the 70s/80s. Once that happens, they then need to increase spending to supplement the talent they will have at that point - even if attendance hasn't yet rebounded. Then, after they have supplemented the roster by increasing spending, wins rise into the 80s/90s and attendance bounces back to 3+ million.

There is nothing that suggest they don't understand this is the path they are on.

I sure do matt....because it's TRUE!

Just as you keep tying losing for four, five or six seasons to future success and BDWJr taking the payroll into the Top 10-12 of MLB.

You may keep "noting it" but that's NOT how BDWJr's payroll operates and I'm surprised you don't know this.

He doesn't "increase payroll" to that Top 10-12 level again w/o first having the attendance (or at least close to it) that allows him to do so.

And what if slipping to the 60's/70's win level you seem obsessed with doesn't lead to having that core of home grown talent?

Then you will indeed see attendance drop to that 1.5+M level and a payroll near $100M for a long time.

Your premise for what should happen is based on the BEST possible outcome while ignoring the equal chance it fails.

Brining in a Z. Gallen type next year, while not neglecting the minor league player development long term goals, would at least give the 2026 team and beyond it's best shot at overachieving and keeping attendance from the FREE FALL it's been in for two years.

Again

BDWJr ties meaningful payroll increases FIRST to proven attendance increases, not the other way around as you keep suggesting.

Again, what they are doing is unprecedented for the period of this ownership over the last 25+ years. So you don't KNOW that they aren't prepared to act differently once they have the foundation with which to do so.

[rockondlouie]

By competing in 2026, w/o sacrificing the LT goal of building through the system, BDWJr can stem the massive attendance losses and would have a shot at drawing 2.5+M.

Remember matt, BDWJr always ties payroll to attendance.

You keep tying everything to this.

As I've noted many times before, in going down the path they appear to be on, they should be prepared to have increasing spending LEAD a bounce back in attendance by one year when they are ready to exit this rebuilding phase.

Even if they slip to wins in the 60s/70s, attendance in the 1.5 million range, and payroll below $100 million in these rebuilding seasons, once they have established the necessary, new, young core of players in 2028, 2029, etc., they should first start to see wins pick up, even without increasing spending, into the 70s/80s. Once that happens, they then need to increase spending to supplement the talent they will have at that point - even if attendance hasn't yet rebounded. Then, after they have supplemented the roster by increasing spending, wins rise into the 80s/90s and attendance bounces back to 3+ million.

There is nothing that suggest they don't understand this is the path they are on.

I sure do matt....because it's TRUE!

Just as you keep tying losing for four, five or six seasons to future success and BDWJr taking the payroll into the Top 10-12 of MLB.

You may keep "noting it" but that's NOT how BDWJr's payroll operates and I'm surprised you don't know this.

He doesn't "increase payroll" to that Top 10-12 level again w/o first having the attendance (or at least close to it) that allows him to do so.

And what if slipping to the 60's/70's win level you seem obsessed with doesn't lead to having that core of home grown talent?

Then you will indeed see attendance drop to that 1.5+M level and a payroll near $100M for a long time.

Your premise for what should happen is based on the BEST possible outcome while ignoring the equal chance it fails.

Brining in a Z. Gallen type next year, while not neglecting the minor league player development long term goals, would at least give the 2026 team and beyond it's best shot at overachieving and keeping attendance from the FREE FALL it's been in for two years.

Again

BDWJr ties meaningful payroll increases FIRST to proven attendance increases, not the other way around as you keep suggesting.

Again, what they are doing is unprecedented for the period of this ownership over the last 25+ years. So you don't KNOW that they aren't prepared to act differently once they have the foundation with which to do so.

Oh but I do matt, they're operating just as they always have when it comes to payroll.

I take it straight from the horse's mouth:

DeWitt III's "revenue machine" comment....

-In September 2025, a prior quote from Bill DeWitt III resurfaced on social media, where he had said that the Cardinals turn their "revenue machine into a payroll machine". He made this comment in response to fans suggesting that lower attendance would pressure owners to spend more. He implied that lower attendance would instead logically lead to less revenue and therefore a smaller payroll.

-DeWitt Jr.'s "revenue game" comment: In January 2025, Bill DeWitt Jr. also connected the two concepts, stating, "It’s a revenue game... If you have more revenue, you have an opportunity to spend more money".

[NYCardsFan]

"He did manage .800 OPS". Isn't Burleson the first Cardinals' outfielder to accomplish that in the last 15 seasons? No doubt, many MLB teams would like to have Burleson's offensive production in their lineup. Especially, at his salary.

No, he isn't.

.800 OPS seasons for Qualified Cardinals Outfielders in the " Last 15 Seasons"
O'Neill: .912 (2021)
Ozuna: 800 (2019)
Pham: .931 (2017)
Piscotty: .800 (2016)
Holliday: .811 (2014); .879 (2013); .877 (2012); .912 (2011)
Beltran: .830 (2013); .842 (2012)
Berkman: .959 (2011)

But other than that, you nailed it, Shady!

Do you ever get anything right?