The fundamental question for the Cardinals rebuild

[rockondlouie]

"He did manage .800 OPS". Isn't Burleson the first Cardinals' outfielder to accomplish that in the last 15 seasons? No doubt, many MLB teams would like to have Burleson's offensive production in their lineup. Especially, at his salary.

No, he isn't.

.800 OPS seasons for Qualified Cardinals Outfielders in the " Last 15 Seasons"
O'Neill: .912 (2021)
Ozuna: 800 (2019)
Pham: .931 (2017)
Piscotty: .800 (2016)
Holliday: .811 (2014); .879 (2013); .877 (2012); .912 (2011)
Beltran: .830 (2013); .842 (2012)
Berkman: .959 (2011)

But other than that, you nailed it, Shady!

Do you ever get anything right?

Unreal he seems to think we can't look his c r a p up.

[mattmitchl44]

By competing in 2026, w/o sacrificing the LT goal of building through the system, BDWJr can stem the massive attendance losses and would have a shot at drawing 2.5+M.

Remember matt, BDWJr always ties payroll to attendance.

You keep tying everything to this.

As I've noted many times before, in going down the path they appear to be on, they should be prepared to have increasing spending LEAD a bounce back in attendance by one year when they are ready to exit this rebuilding phase.

Even if they slip to wins in the 60s/70s, attendance in the 1.5 million range, and payroll below $100 million in these rebuilding seasons, once they have established the necessary, new, young core of players in 2028, 2029, etc., they should first start to see wins pick up, even without increasing spending, into the 70s/80s. Once that happens, they then need to increase spending to supplement the talent they will have at that point - even if attendance hasn't yet rebounded. Then, after they have supplemented the roster by increasing spending, wins rise into the 80s/90s and attendance bounces back to 3+ million.

There is nothing that suggest they don't understand this is the path they are on.

I sure do matt....because it's TRUE!

Just as you keep tying losing for four, five or six seasons to future success and BDWJr taking the payroll into the Top 10-12 of MLB.

You may keep "noting it" but that's NOT how BDWJr's payroll operates and I'm surprised you don't know this.

He doesn't "increase payroll" to that Top 10-12 level again w/o first having the attendance (or at least close to it) that allows him to do so.

And what if slipping to the 60's/70's win level you seem obsessed with doesn't lead to having that core of home grown talent?

Then you will indeed see attendance drop to that 1.5+M level and a payroll near $100M for a long time.

Your premise for what should happen is based on the BEST possible outcome while ignoring the equal chance it fails.

Brining in a Z. Gallen type next year, while not neglecting the minor league player development long term goals, would at least give the 2026 team and beyond it's best shot at overachieving and keeping attendance from the FREE FALL it's been in for two years.

Again

BDWJr ties meaningful payroll increases FIRST to proven attendance increases, not the other way around as you keep suggesting.

Again, what they are doing is unprecedented for the period of this ownership over the last 25+ years. So you don't KNOW that they aren't prepared to act differently once they have the foundation with which to do so.

Oh but I do matt, they're operating just as they always have when it comes to payroll.

I take it straight from the horse's mouth:

DeWitt III's "revenue machine" comment....

-In September 2025, a prior quote from Bill DeWitt III resurfaced on social media, where he had said that the Cardinals turn their "revenue machine into a payroll machine". He made this comment in response to fans suggesting that lower attendance would pressure owners to spend more. He implied that lower attendance would instead logically lead to less revenue and therefore a smaller payroll.

-DeWitt Jr.'s "revenue game" comment: In January 2025, Bill DeWitt Jr. also connected the two concepts, stating, "It’s a revenue game... If you have more revenue, you have an opportunity to spend more money".

Yes, while they are rebuilding, expect wins, attendance and payroll to all go down. We all know that. That will be true for 2026, 2027, etc.

But that still doesn't logically say exactly what happens when the roster has been rebuilt and they are ready to be competitive again. That doesn't say they won't "forward spend" by a year to add to the roster before they expect attendance to bounce back up to 2.5, 3 million.

[Mort Gage]

"He did manage .800 OPS". Isn't Burleson the first Cardinals' outfielder to accomplish that in the last 15 seasons? No doubt, many MLB teams would like to have Burleson's offensive production in their lineup. Especially, at his salary.

No, he isn't.

.800 OPS seasons for Qualified Cardinals Outfielders in the " Last 15 Seasons"
O'Neill: .912 (2021)
Ozuna: 800 (2019)
Pham: .931 (2017)
Piscotty: .800 (2016)
Holliday: .811 (2014); .879 (2013); .877 (2012); .912 (2011)
Beltran: .830 (2013); .842 (2012)
Berkman: .959 (2011)

But other than that, you nailed it, Shady!

Do you ever get anything right?

But....but.....but still!!

Shady hears what he wants to hear. Facts to the contrary create too much cognitive dissonance and are discarded. Maybe on his next Burleson kick everyone should agree with him and he may stop his hackneyed act.

[mdkieffer]

Cards player management system was mismanaged under Mo. I am talking about the Cards minor league and acquiring players from other ML teams

Too many players rushed to the ML level and have then "work" on their game at the ML level like the current crop of Walker, Gorman, Scott and others. Then you had others in recent years and now floundering elsewhere.

This culture needs to change. Hopefully, Bloom changes that culture.

It would not shock me that Oli gets let go. Bring in someone for a fresh start. Oli was also rushed to the ML as the golden boy manager...
so a new manager and staff might be a good thing

[Shady]

"He did manage .800 OPS". Isn't Burleson the first Cardinals' outfielder to accomplish that in the last 15 seasons? No doubt, many MLB teams would like to have Burleson's offensive production in their lineup. Especially, at his salary.

No, he isn't.

.800 OPS seasons for Qualified Cardinals Outfielders in the " Last 15 Seasons"
O'Neill: .912 (2021)
Ozuna: 800 (2019)
Pham: .931 (2017)
Piscotty: .800 (2016)
Holliday: .811 (2014); .879 (2013); .877 (2012); .912 (2011)
Beltran: .830 (2013); .842 (2012)
Berkman: .959 (2011)

But other than that, you nailed it, Shady!

Do you ever get anything right?

Unreal he seems to think we can't look his c r a p up.

I'm pretty sure somebody else posted that earlier. That's where I got it.

[rockondlouie]

By competing in 2026, w/o sacrificing the LT goal of building through the system, BDWJr can stem the massive attendance losses and would have a shot at drawing 2.5+M.

Remember matt, BDWJr always ties payroll to attendance.

You keep tying everything to this.

As I've noted many times before, in going down the path they appear to be on, they should be prepared to have increasing spending LEAD a bounce back in attendance by one year when they are ready to exit this rebuilding phase.

Even if they slip to wins in the 60s/70s, attendance in the 1.5 million range, and payroll below $100 million in these rebuilding seasons, once they have established the necessary, new, young core of players in 2028, 2029, etc., they should first start to see wins pick up, even without increasing spending, into the 70s/80s. Once that happens, they then need to increase spending to supplement the talent they will have at that point - even if attendance hasn't yet rebounded. Then, after they have supplemented the roster by increasing spending, wins rise into the 80s/90s and attendance bounces back to 3+ million.

There is nothing that suggest they don't understand this is the path they are on.

I sure do matt....because it's TRUE!

Just as you keep tying losing for four, five or six seasons to future success and BDWJr taking the payroll into the Top 10-12 of MLB.

You may keep "noting it" but that's NOT how BDWJr's payroll operates and I'm surprised you don't know this.

He doesn't "increase payroll" to that Top 10-12 level again w/o first having the attendance (or at least close to it) that allows him to do so.

And what if slipping to the 60's/70's win level you seem obsessed with doesn't lead to having that core of home grown talent?

Then you will indeed see attendance drop to that 1.5+M level and a payroll near $100M for a long time.

Your premise for what should happen is based on the BEST possible outcome while ignoring the equal chance it fails.

Brining in a Z. Gallen type next year, while not neglecting the minor league player development long term goals, would at least give the 2026 team and beyond it's best shot at overachieving and keeping attendance from the FREE FALL it's been in for two years.

Again

BDWJr ties meaningful payroll increases FIRST to proven attendance increases, not the other way around as you keep suggesting.

Again, what they are doing is unprecedented for the period of this ownership over the last 25+ years. So you don't KNOW that they aren't prepared to act differently once they have the foundation with which to do so.

Oh but I do matt, they're operating just as they always have when it comes to payroll.

I take it straight from the horse's mouth:

DeWitt III's "revenue machine" comment....

-In September 2025, a prior quote from Bill DeWitt III resurfaced on social media, where he had said that the Cardinals turn their "revenue machine into a payroll machine". He made this comment in response to fans suggesting that lower attendance would pressure owners to spend more. He implied that lower attendance would instead logically lead to less revenue and therefore a smaller payroll.

-DeWitt Jr.'s "revenue game" comment: In January 2025, Bill DeWitt Jr. also connected the two concepts, stating, "It’s a revenue game... If you have more revenue, you have an opportunity to spend more money".

Yes, while they are rebuilding, expect wins, attendance and payroll to all go down. We all know that. That will be true for 2026, 2027, etc.

But that still doesn't logically say exactly what happens when the roster has been rebuilt and they are ready to be competitive again. That doesn't say they won't "forward spend" by a year to add to the roster before they expect attendance to bounce back up to 2.5, 3 million.

We're in agreement 2026, maybe even 2027 could be rough while they re-build.

I'm just hoping they minimize the attendance damage, hoping Bloom can make some wise trades like he did in Boston (re: TGKS, Pivetta) and they win enough to keep attendance from cratering.

If the payroll falls to $100M............the roster is rebuilt (successfully)...........and payroll goes back to $170-180M...........is that really enough to compete when the #10 payroll will likely be in the $230+M range by then?

[Mort Gage]

"He did manage .800 OPS". Isn't Burleson the first Cardinals' outfielder to accomplish that in the last 15 seasons? No doubt, many MLB teams would like to have Burleson's offensive production in their lineup. Especially, at his salary.

No, he isn't.

.800 OPS seasons for Qualified Cardinals Outfielders in the " Last 15 Seasons"
O'Neill: .912 (2021)
Ozuna: 800 (2019)
Pham: .931 (2017)
Piscotty: .800 (2016)
Holliday: .811 (2014); .879 (2013); .877 (2012); .912 (2011)
Beltran: .830 (2013); .842 (2012)
Berkman: .959 (2011)

But other than that, you nailed it, Shady!

Do you ever get anything right?

Unreal he seems to think we can't look his c r a p up.

I'm pretty sure somebody else posted that earlier. That's where I got it.

Who? Maybe I missed it but I don't recall anyone posting something that stupid. Please enlighten us.

And in 2015 Grichuk put up an .877 OPS and 3.1 bWAR in just 350 PAs.

[Quincy Varnish]

Everyone's hope is Westerholt and Doyle are going to be at least that. But we need more than just those two. We really have forgot what a strong roster looks like when Burleson and Donovan are our best hitters along with Herrera.

Please name ten lefty hitters in the NL, besides Ohtani, Soto and Harper, you would rather have than Donovan and Burleson. Point is, Donovan and Burleson would likely be in the top ten as lefty hitters, overall.

Kyle Schwarber
Freddie Freeman
Corbin Carroll
Matt Olson
James Wood
Rafael Devers
Kyle Tucker
Michael Busch
Kyle Stowers
Jakob Marsee

What do I win?

You may have forgotten…

Corey Seager
Gunnar Henderson
Nick Kurtz
Jazz Chisholm
Yelich
PCA
Bellinger
Duran

He did say NL, but Yelich and PCA are better, as well. Despite being proven wrong Shady will do his little victory dance and ask some variation of the same question again soon.

Burleson is easily in the top 10 of all-time Cardinals born on November 25th, if you ignore several players.

Know who else was born on November 25th?

Joe DiMaggio.

Think about that for a minute.

[Dicktar2023]

There is the likelihood that the outdated minor league system may have limited the growth of some of the recent prospects. I would put Walker, Scott, and Gorman in this category. Walker and Scott were rushed to StL. Mo can be blamed for not acquiring a veteran to fill the OF need. Both those guys needed at least one more full season in the minors.

Gorman seems to have lacked instruction in pitch identification and using all fields. That could be caused by the old dead pull philosophy. Better instruction and patience would've helped all 3.

Add Carlson to that list...and why stop there? We are where we are because this organization has been failing to develop both position players and starting pitchers for years and years. Five years ago, they were stockpiling starters--Flaherty, Reyes, Hicks, Hudson, etc. Today they have exactly squat to show for that surplus. It can't all be bad luck.

That's what was so infuriating to me when the Athletic story broke last year. Mo's attitude seemed to be "yeah, we know our developmental system sucks." Oh really? Because it kinda seems like you only realized it sucked when Katie Woo started asking you questions for this story. Before then, it seems like you thought everything was just fine.

[ClassicO]

When can they develop a cost controlled ~5+ fWAR position player and ~4+ fWAR starting pitcher to build around?

The Cardinals have been developing some (but maybe not enough) complementary talent in young position players and SPs who are 2-3 fWAR players. What they haven't done is develop position players who would be in the ~Top 20 of all MLB players or pitchers who would be in the ~Top 15 of all MLB SPs. They have to have a couple of top end talent players who they aren't paying $25, $30, $35, etc. million a year for. They can't assemble enough talent if all of their top end players are Goldschmidt, Arenado, Gray type veterans who they are sinking ~35-40% of their payroll in.

Identifying, acquiring, and developing at least a couple of cost controlled top end talent players is probably the Cardinals single biggest need as part of this rebuild.

Fangraphs defines All Star production as roughly 4-5 fWAR (or greater). The last homegrown Cardinals position player to achieve >= 4 fWAR in multiple seasons was Matt Carpenter (he did it 4 times), and he matriculated in 2012. So it's been 13 years since the Cardinals have developed a player with multi-year All Star caliber production, though they have had a few players reach that AS-level for a single season (Edman, O'Neill, and Pham). Before Carpenter, you have to go all the way back to Pujols and Molina (matriculating in 2001 and 2004, respectively).

Excellent work NY Card. And the thought that they can trade a bunch of underperforming guys for anything even resembling a AS-level player is ludicrous. They have to develop them via draft -- and the international FA market, both of which require a lot more spending on those development areas. It will be a long road.

[rockondlouie]

They have to develop them via draft -- and the international FA market, both of which require a lot more spending on those development areas. It will be a long road.

THIS (international FA market) is my best bet where they find the next superstar be it a hitter or a starting pitcher!

Let's hope C. Bloom has scouts all over the world finding them for us and BDWJr is funding it.

[JuanAgosto]

There is the likelihood that the outdated minor league system may have limited the growth of some of the recent prospects. I would put Walker, Scott, and Gorman in this category. Walker and Scott were rushed to StL. Mo can be blamed for not acquiring a veteran to fill the OF need. Both those guys needed at least one more full season in the minors.

Gorman seems to have lacked instruction in pitch identification and using all fields. That could be caused by the old dead pull philosophy. Better instruction and patience would've helped all 3.

Add Carlson to that list...and why stop there? We are where we are because this organization has been failing to develop both position players and starting pitchers for years and years. Five years ago, they were stockpiling starters--Flaherty, Reyes, Hicks, Hudson, etc. Today they have exactly squat to show for that surplus. It can't all be bad luck.

That's what was so infuriating to me when the Athletic story broke last year. Mo's attitude seemed to be "yeah, we know our developmental system sucks." Oh really? Because it kinda seems like you only realized it sucked when Katie Woo started asking you questions for this story. Before then, it seems like you thought everything was just fine.

John Mozeliak became arrogant and lazy after success from 2009-2015. He thought analytics alone would win games. Since Bloom was hired, Mo was just riding out his time and collecting a paycheck.

[The Nard]

First you have to determine what type of ball club you want to construct, then get the players to achieve that goal. The cardinals traditionally have had good fundamentals, speed, and pitching. Hitting and power were bonuses.

[mattmitchl44]

By competing in 2026, w/o sacrificing the LT goal of building through the system, BDWJr can stem the massive attendance losses and would have a shot at drawing 2.5+M.

Remember matt, BDWJr always ties payroll to attendance.

You keep tying everything to this.

As I've noted many times before, in going down the path they appear to be on, they should be prepared to have increasing spending LEAD a bounce back in attendance by one year when they are ready to exit this rebuilding phase.

Even if they slip to wins in the 60s/70s, attendance in the 1.5 million range, and payroll below $100 million in these rebuilding seasons, once they have established the necessary, new, young core of players in 2028, 2029, etc., they should first start to see wins pick up, even without increasing spending, into the 70s/80s. Once that happens, they then need to increase spending to supplement the talent they will have at that point - even if attendance hasn't yet rebounded. Then, after they have supplemented the roster by increasing spending, wins rise into the 80s/90s and attendance bounces back to 3+ million.

There is nothing that suggest they don't understand this is the path they are on.

I sure do matt....because it's TRUE!

Just as you keep tying losing for four, five or six seasons to future success and BDWJr taking the payroll into the Top 10-12 of MLB.

You may keep "noting it" but that's NOT how BDWJr's payroll operates and I'm surprised you don't know this.

He doesn't "increase payroll" to that Top 10-12 level again w/o first having the attendance (or at least close to it) that allows him to do so.

And what if slipping to the 60's/70's win level you seem obsessed with doesn't lead to having that core of home grown talent?

Then you will indeed see attendance drop to that 1.5+M level and a payroll near $100M for a long time.

Your premise for what should happen is based on the BEST possible outcome while ignoring the equal chance it fails.

Brining in a Z. Gallen type next year, while not neglecting the minor league player development long term goals, would at least give the 2026 team and beyond it's best shot at overachieving and keeping attendance from the FREE FALL it's been in for two years.

Again

BDWJr ties meaningful payroll increases FIRST to proven attendance increases, not the other way around as you keep suggesting.

Again, what they are doing is unprecedented for the period of this ownership over the last 25+ years. So you don't KNOW that they aren't prepared to act differently once they have the foundation with which to do so.

Oh but I do matt, they're operating just as they always have when it comes to payroll.

I take it straight from the horse's mouth:

DeWitt III's "revenue machine" comment....

-In September 2025, a prior quote from Bill DeWitt III resurfaced on social media, where he had said that the Cardinals turn their "revenue machine into a payroll machine". He made this comment in response to fans suggesting that lower attendance would pressure owners to spend more. He implied that lower attendance would instead logically lead to less revenue and therefore a smaller payroll.

-DeWitt Jr.'s "revenue game" comment: In January 2025, Bill DeWitt Jr. also connected the two concepts, stating, "It’s a revenue game... If you have more revenue, you have an opportunity to spend more money".

Yes, while they are rebuilding, expect wins, attendance and payroll to all go down. We all know that. That will be true for 2026, 2027, etc.

But that still doesn't logically say exactly what happens when the roster has been rebuilt and they are ready to be competitive again. That doesn't say they won't "forward spend" by a year to add to the roster before they expect attendance to bounce back up to 2.5, 3 million.

We're in agreement 2026, maybe even 2027 could be rough while they re-build.

I'm just hoping they minimize the attendance damage, hoping Bloom can make some wise trades like he did in Boston (re: TGKS, Pivetta) and they win enough to keep attendance from cratering.

If the payroll falls to $100M............the roster is rebuilt (successfully)...........and payroll goes back to $170-180M...........is that really enough to compete when the #10 payroll will likely be in the $230+M range by then?

We agree that, ultimately, payroll needs to rebound long term to around 10th, 11th in MLB - whatever that is 3, 4, 5 years from now.

[C-Unit]

When can they develop a cost controlled ~5+ fWAR position player and ~4+ fWAR starting pitcher to build around?

The Cardinals have been developing some (but maybe not enough) complementary talent in young position players and SPs who are 2-3 fWAR players. What they haven't done is develop position players who would be in the ~Top 20 of all MLB players or pitchers who would be in the ~Top 15 of all MLB SPs. They have to have a couple of top end talent players who they aren't paying $25, $30, $35, etc. million a year for. They can't assemble enough talent if all of their top end players are Goldschmidt, Arenado, Gray type veterans who they are sinking ~35-40% of their payroll in.

Identifying, acquiring, and developing at least a couple of cost controlled top end talent players is probably the Cardinals single biggest need as part of this rebuild.

Because that's what playoff teams do. That's sarcasm. It would be great to have a young superstar but they don't grow on trees. Weatherholt may fit that bill but he could just as easily flop. Waiting and losing is not the optimal situation for fans and no guarantee of success. We've been down this road before though and you're going to believe what you want. A payroll of around $200 million gives this team a fighting chance with the right signings. The fans deserve it. Imagine 1 TOTR starter to pair with Gray, one big rbi bat in the outfield and 1-2 top relievers. This team would be in the playoffs without Weatherholt. It can easily be done if the purse strings are loosened.

Or if/when that group fails because there isn't enough present, cost controlled depth, they could tie themselves to another several years of expensive, declining players (like Arenado, Goldschmidt, Gray, etc.) and doom their ability to compete for multiple additional seasons.

What do you think would have happened of Carlson, Gorman, and Walker had simply reached the level of being every day MLB players (2-3 win players). Do you think that would have offset the decline years of Goldschmidt and Arenado. I think Arenado also declined earlier than we would have hoped, but that's always the risk you take.

[2ninr]

Everyone's hope is Westerholt and Doyle are going to be at least that. But we need more than just those two. We really have forgot what a strong roster looks like when Burleson and Donovan are our best hitters along with Herrera.

WillyCon

For some reason I forget about Willy. You think they trade him?

No. Only leader on the team and wants to be here

If we had 3 or 4 Willys it would be a different conversation. As long as a couple of them were outfielders. I would most definitely trade Burleson AND Donovan for a 25 year old Willy who could play a corner adequately.
EDIT I will throw in Pages and or Pogo.