The fundamental question for the Cardinals rebuild

[mattmitchl44]

When can they develop a cost controlled ~5+ fWAR position player and ~4+ fWAR starting pitcher to build around?

The Cardinals have been developing some (but maybe not enough) complementary talent in young position players and SPs who are 2-3 fWAR players. What they haven't done is develop position players who would be in the ~Top 20 of all MLB players or pitchers who would be in the ~Top 15 of all MLB SPs. They have to have a couple of top end talent players who they aren't paying $25, $30, $35, etc. million a year for. They can't assemble enough talent if all of their top end players are Goldschmidt, Arenado, Gray type veterans who they are sinking ~35-40% of their payroll in.

Identifying, acquiring, and developing at least a couple of cost controlled top end talent players is probably the Cardinals single biggest need as part of this rebuild.

[bccardsfan]

When can they develop a cost controlled ~5+ fWAR position player and ~4+ fWAR starting pitcher to build around?

The Cardinals have been developing some (but maybe not enough) complementary talent in young position players and SPs who are 2-3 fWAR players. What they haven't done is develop position players who would be in the ~Top 20 of all MLB players or pitchers who would be in the ~Top 15 of all MLB SPs. They have to have a couple of top end talent players who they aren't paying $25, $30, $35, etc. million a year for. They can't assemble enough talent if all of their top end players are Goldschmidt, Arenado, Gray type veterans who they are sinking ~35-40% of their payroll in.

Identifying, acquiring, and developing at least a couple of cost controlled top end talent players is probably the Cardinals single biggest need as part of this rebuild.

We shall see if Doyle ends up being one of those SPs in a couple of years. At least there is promise, although we have seen that before and it didn't pan out. Not sure what hitting prospects can rise to that level. Most likely won't be the uniKKKorn:) Easy, obvious, incorrect....

[2ninr]

Everyone's hope is Westerholt and Doyle are going to be at least that. But we need more than just those two. We really have forgot what a strong roster looks like when Burleson and Donovan are our best hitters along with Herrera.

[JuanAgosto]

There is the likelihood that the outdated minor league system may have limited the growth of some of the recent prospects. I would put Walker, Scott, and Gorman in this category. Walker and Scott were rushed to StL. Mo can be blamed for not acquiring a veteran to fill the OF need. Both those guys needed at least one more full season in the minors.

Gorman seems to have lacked instruction in pitch identification and using all fields. That could be caused by the old dead pull philosophy. Better instruction and patience would've helped all 3.

[mattmitchl44]

Everyone's hope is Westerholt and Doyle are going to be at least that. But we need more than just those two. We really have forgot what a strong roster looks like when Burleson and Donovan are our best hitters along with Herrera.

Weatherholt and Doyle appear to be their best hopes of getting there in 2, 3, 4 years. But they need to realize their potential, and that is the point at which coming out of this rebuild starts in earnest.

Increasing your chances of getting such players is why having Top 5 or Top 10 draft picks is important (and therefore why being willing to go through losing years instead of mediocre years is important).

[NYCardsFan]

When can they develop a cost controlled ~5+ fWAR position player and ~4+ fWAR starting pitcher to build around?

The Cardinals have been developing some (but maybe not enough) complementary talent in young position players and SPs who are 2-3 fWAR players. What they haven't done is develop position players who would be in the ~Top 20 of all MLB players or pitchers who would be in the ~Top 15 of all MLB SPs. They have to have a couple of top end talent players who they aren't paying $25, $30, $35, etc. million a year for. They can't assemble enough talent if all of their top end players are Goldschmidt, Arenado, Gray type veterans who they are sinking ~35-40% of their payroll in.

Identifying, acquiring, and developing at least a couple of cost controlled top end talent players is probably the Cardinals single biggest need as part of this rebuild.

Fangraphs defines All Star production as roughly 4-5 fWAR (or greater). The last homegrown Cardinals position player to achieve >= 4 fWAR in multiple seasons was Matt Carpenter (he did it 4 times), and he matriculated in 2012. So it's been 13 years since the Cardinals have developed a player with multi-year All Star caliber production, though they have had a few players reach that AS-level for a single season (Edman, O'Neill, and Pham). Before Carpenter, you have to go all the way back to Pujols and Molina (matriculating in 2001 and 2004, respectively).

[ecleme22]

When can they develop a cost controlled ~5+ fWAR position player and ~4+ fWAR starting pitcher to build around?

The Cardinals have been developing some (but maybe not enough) complementary talent in young position players and SPs who are 2-3 fWAR players. What they haven't done is develop position players who would be in the ~Top 20 of all MLB players or pitchers who would be in the ~Top 15 of all MLB SPs. They have to have a couple of top end talent players who they aren't paying $25, $30, $35, etc. million a year for. They can't assemble enough talent if all of their top end players are Goldschmidt, Arenado, Gray type veterans who they are sinking ~35-40% of their payroll in.

Identifying, acquiring, and developing at least a couple of cost controlled top end talent players is probably the Cardinals single biggest need as part of this rebuild.

I would argue that the cards haven’t even developed 2-3 WAR players on a regular basis.

But your last sentence is on the mark: identifying, acquiring and developing.

[3dender]

Wetherholt and Joshua Baez are the only two position player hopes for the next couple years, with Rainiel Rodriguez at probably 3 years away. Doyle and maybe Mathews are the only two pitching hopes in that timeframe.

[jcgmoi]

The first thing that comes to mind is the need to evaluate every player on the 40 and in the minors and make a judgement on who among them is likely to contribute to the next relevant Cardinal team. Everyone else should be actively shopped.

I don't think anyone can predict when a 5-WAR player will pop out of a system, not even if you only consider the 'can't miss' guys. The list of failed #1 draftees is too long. Just concentrate on working to identify as many quality players as you can, train them well, and see what percolates.

Pitching can wait. That's convenient since it takes longer for pitchers to mature, plus there's the added risk of debilitating injury. What I don't want to see is a staff of so-so starters, failed starters, and high-end relievers. I think it's a misguided approach but there's a hot market for top relievers, so look to take advantage of another team's willingness to overpay.

Bigger picture, evaluate FO staff, managers and coaches at all levels, and scouts ruthlessly. Be prepared to move someone out if they don't produce. In the same light, pay outsiders to scout the team and its operations and techniques. Then listen to what they say.

The team won't compete next year, or the next, or probably the next after, so buckle up.

[dugoutrex]

we have a unicorn so maybe one or two more mythical creatures ?

[Carp4Cy]

When can they develop a cost controlled ~5+ fWAR position player and ~4+ fWAR starting pitcher to build around?

The Cardinals have been developing some (but maybe not enough) complementary talent in young position players and SPs who are 2-3 fWAR players. What they haven't done is develop position players who would be in the ~Top 20 of all MLB players or pitchers who would be in the ~Top 15 of all MLB SPs. They have to have a couple of top end talent players who they aren't paying $25, $30, $35, etc. million a year for. They can't assemble enough talent if all of their top end players are Goldschmidt, Arenado, Gray type veterans who they are sinking ~35-40% of their payroll in.

Identifying, acquiring, and developing at least a couple of cost controlled top end talent players is probably the Cardinals single biggest need as part of this rebuild.

Even if they get that it will need to begin early in the players career (can’t be overly patient here) to maximize the surplus value, and then we will have a narrow window to bring in other trades or FAs to fill out a championship roster before the studs hit expensive arb years and the CT members want to trade them “while they have value”.

[scoutyjones2]

Everyone's hope is Westerholt and Doyle are going to be at least that. But we need more than just those two. We really have forgot what a strong roster looks like when Burleson and Donovan are our best hitters along with Herrera.

WillyCon

[Shady]

Everyone's hope is Westerholt and Doyle are going to be at least that. But we need more than just those two. We really have forgot what a strong roster looks like when Burleson and Donovan are our best hitters along with Herrera.

Please name ten lefty hitters in the NL, besides Ohtani, Soto and Harper, you would rather have than Donovan and Burleson. Point is, Donovan and Burleson would likely be in the top ten as lefty hitters, overall.

[ICCFIM2]

Wetherholt and Joshua Baez are the only two position player hopes for the next couple years, with Rainiel Rodriguez at probably 3 years away. Doyle and maybe Mathews are the only two pitching hopes in that timeframe.

I was going to mention Baez, but you beat me to it. Also, Herrera could become that as well. So they could have three guys on the position side by 2027. I am not certain if any of the other minor leaguers outside of Rainiel Rodriguez as you mentioned who is several years away have that upside.

I also don't think any of the pitchers outside of Doyle likely have that upside. They have an entire system full of #4/#5 starter types. They tried to change that by drafting Doyle. Since the Cards are going to get another high draft pick this year, they should be able to add at least one more player to this mix with that potential.

I don't think this team is as far off as many think.

[ilcubuffs]

Skill and will. Will always be dependent on skill and will. I will add competency of hires.

[Cardinals4Life]

When can they develop a cost controlled ~5+ fWAR position player and ~4+ fWAR starting pitcher to build around?

The Cardinals have been developing some (but maybe not enough) complementary talent in young position players and SPs who are 2-3 fWAR players. What they haven't done is develop position players who would be in the ~Top 20 of all MLB players or pitchers who would be in the ~Top 15 of all MLB SPs. They have to have a couple of top end talent players who they aren't paying $25, $30, $35, etc. million a year for. They can't assemble enough talent if all of their top end players are Goldschmidt, Arenado, Gray type veterans who they are sinking ~35-40% of their payroll in.

Identifying, acquiring, and developing at least a couple of cost controlled top end talent players is probably the Cardinals single biggest need as part of this rebuild.

While I agree with some of this, there is some that I do not.

I agree that the Cardinals have developed a plethora pf very solid complimentary players (Burleson, Donovan, Herrera, Winn, etc.) I also agree that we need some high-end guys to come through.

I disagree that you can't win with acquiring some high end talent via trades or FA. If the Cardinals would spend 180M (arguably should be a little more), as they have in the past, coupled with producing MLB level players in their minor league system, there isn't a reason why spending money on the missing pieces wouldn't work.

Take the current roster, for example. (This is just a hypothetical)

Donovan 7
Wetherholt 4
Kyle Tucker 9
Eugenio Suarez 5
Contreras 3
Burleson DH
Herrera 2
Winn 6
Scott II/Church 8

Rotation:
Framber Valdez
Gray
Pitcher acquired via trade
Liberatore
McGreevy

What would the estimated salary be for this team?
A lot of league minimum guys.
You would be paying big $$$ to Tucker, Valdez, and lesser big $$$ to Contreras, Gray, and Suarez.

Seriously, what would this type of roster cost?
And why couldn't that roster win?