Goldfan wrote: ↑16 Nov 2025 14:17 pm
Matt I still don’t understand your plan.
The plan is they have to get to
here:
As I've noted before, they basically need to successfully matriculate three prospects to the majors every year. If you divide the roster up into 15 high value (5 SPs, 8 starting position players, 1 DH, 1 closer) spots and 11 lower value (7 other RPs, 4 bench players) spots, the steady state roster needs to look something like:
- 3 rookies (2 in lower value spots; 1 in a high value spot) making close to the ML minimum (total ~$3 million)
- 3 2nd year players (1 in a lower value spot; 2 in high value spots) making close to the ML minimum (total ~$3 million)
- 3 3rd year players (2 in lower value spots; 1 in a high value spot) making close to the ML minimum (total ~$3 million)
- 3 ARB-1 year players (1 in a lower value spot; 2 in high value spots) averaging maybe $2.5 million (total ~$7.5 million)
- 3 ARB-2 year players (1 in a lower value spot; 2 in high value spots) averaging maybe $5 million (total ~$15 million)
- 3 ARB-3 year players (1 in a lower value spot; 2 in high value spots) averaging maybe $7.5 million (total ~$22.5 million)
- 8 full market value veterans (3 in lower value spots; 5 in high value spots) taking up a total of ~$120 million in payroll
But they are not close right now to having those 18 pre-ARB or ARB-eligible players filling those roles with even average levels of productivity. They don't have enough young cost controlled talent to build off of successfully. For a start, they need Wetherholt (or someone else) to
actually be a 4+ WAR player in the majors, they need Doyle (or someone else) to
actually be a front of rotation SP. Until those things actually happen, they don't have the foundation of young talent necessary.
So their priority right now has to be acquiring enough young players and prospects that can build out their depth and get them to having those 18 necessary pre-ARB and ARB slots filled with ML quality players.
But to do that, they need to trade the veteran players they have now (Gray, Arenado, Contreras, etc.) to obtain more young players and prospects. So they likely aren't going to have their "quota" of 8 full market value veterans because they aren't ready to win now anyway. As previously noted, they may pick up a few, cheap veterans who they look to flip in 2026.
But, once they get to the place where they have that foundation of 18 pre-ARB or ARB-eligible players in two or three years, then they will KNOW exactly what holes they need to fill with the 8 full market value veterans. THEN they can start looking to add serious FA acquisitions, who are hopefully still close to their primes, as they pivot to trying to "win now" in 2028, 2029, etc.
