mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑17 Mar 2026 10:24 am
I think everyone pretty much agrees that defense remains the hardest component of productivity to value in a WAR methodology.
However, defensive value IS real and needs to be accounted for. If someone has a better way of valuing EVERY PLAY made by EVERY PLAYER than DRS, UZR/150, OAA, FRV, etc., we'd all like to hear it.
I hear ya Matt, so why not just stop using WAR as some kind of fact based stat. It’s not….it’s flawed…..and yet its thrown out there right along with BA, OBP, OPS, ERA, WHIP
Literally all those other stats have flaws too...
Really? Over the course of a full season, what flaw is there in BA? Give me 5 guys on the same team who hit .290+ over 150 games in a season and you'll have a good team. It's a factual stat, that has no debate.
Likewise ERA. If your team ERA is in the low 3s, youre going to win more than you lose. How is it flawed?
WAR on the other hand? Let's imagine how many wins this player results in vs if he didnt play. How is that even quantified without knowing what the "replacement " player did?
Seriously? Batting average treats all hits as equal. A single counts the same as a home run in batting average. A .290 pure singles hitter is no where near as valuable as a well rounded slugger (like vintage Pujols) who hits .290.
ERA is literally EARNED run average. A run being deemed earned is completely subjective on the official scoring on errors. Plus, a pitcher with a better defense behind them will be default have a lower ERA than a pitcher on another team with a (bleep) defense (all else being equal).
You arguing ERA isn't flawed is mind blogging.
Batting Avg>>>>hits/ab’s. Very simple equation. You now exactly how often a players hits the ball safely.
WAR>>>Start with fantasy AAA player baseline>>>>adjust for position>>>>adjust for Park>>>>compare against all other at position>>>gives you a 2 digit number with decimal>>>
So by viewing that number how do you know if the player has Power, hits for avg, great on D, runs bases well??? It doesn’t tell you anything. You need to go back to the basic stats for any detail
1. Hits/ABs - where hits are subjectively determined by the official scorer on whether the fielder should have converted into an out or not.
2. Everything you said about WAR was correct. However, it doesn't make the point you think you're making. WAR is like any other stat. It should be used in conjunction with other stats. Just like BA, OBP, SB, Errors, etc. by themselves in a vacuum doesn't tell you the whole story on a player.
Yes it's meant to take everything and boil it down to one number of value. And it does a reasonably good job. If you want to argue it overrates defense, that's fine. I agree with you. But overall, it pretty accurately reflects/differentiates who is replacement level (< 1), solid regular (1.5-3), all star level (4-5), and superstar (6+). Which is it's goal.
Yeah you can find some oddball outliers like a Tommy Edman or Jason Heyward every now and then. But it's not coincidence that the year end WAR leaders also dominate the MVP and CY leaderboards.
How many player hits are determined by the official scorer over the course of the season. And those that are fall under MLB rules
Point out the MLB rule to determine Fantasy AAA player used as the baseline……MLB rule for positional adjustment….etc
And as I’ve stated many times in this thread you need to look at the standard stats anyway to figure out what the WAR# represents…..so why not just begin there?
You can begin, end, or stop off in the middle wherever you want - no one is arguing against looking at more reliable information. But WAR values are part of that reliable information, along with all of the stats you prefer.
I've noted before - WAR is a GM-level statistic, a useful summary of how many more "wins" a player might bring if acquired, and therefore how much money the GM might want to offer to spend on that player.
But WAR isn't going to tell a manager how to use a particular player - what position they should play, where they should hit in the order, etc. The manager has to look at other information to decide that.
Do you think that number correlates to actual WINS? Bob Gibson in ‘68 had 13 SHO, now I don’t know anything more vital and specifically related to a SP and the game than the Pitcher throwing a SHO that would determine the WIN for his team. And he achieved a 11.2WAR. He was 22-9 1.12 ERA for the year.
In those 13 games there was no way the other could win because they didn’t score specifically because of him……
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑17 Mar 2026 10:24 am
I think everyone pretty much agrees that defense remains the hardest component of productivity to value in a WAR methodology.
However, defensive value IS real and needs to be accounted for. If someone has a better way of valuing EVERY PLAY made by EVERY PLAYER than DRS, UZR/150, OAA, FRV, etc., we'd all like to hear it.
I hear ya Matt, so why not just stop using WAR as some kind of fact based stat. It’s not….it’s flawed…..and yet its thrown out there right along with BA, OBP, OPS, ERA, WHIP
Literally all those other stats have flaws too...
Really? Over the course of a full season, what flaw is there in BA? Give me 5 guys on the same team who hit .290+ over 150 games in a season and you'll have a good team. It's a factual stat, that has no debate.
Likewise ERA. If your team ERA is in the low 3s, youre going to win more than you lose. How is it flawed?
WAR on the other hand? Let's imagine how many wins this player results in vs if he didnt play. How is that even quantified without knowing what the "replacement " player did?
Seriously? Batting average treats all hits as equal. A single counts the same as a home run in batting average. A .290 pure singles hitter is no where near as valuable as a well rounded slugger (like vintage Pujols) who hits .290.
ERA is literally EARNED run average. A run being deemed earned is completely subjective on the official scoring on errors. Plus, a pitcher with a better defense behind them will be default have a lower ERA than a pitcher on another team with a (bleep) defense (all else being equal).
You arguing ERA isn't flawed is mind blogging.
Batting Avg>>>>hits/ab’s. Very simple equation. You now exactly how often a players hits the ball safely.
WAR>>>Start with fantasy AAA player baseline>>>>adjust for position>>>>adjust for Park>>>>compare against all other at position>>>gives you a 2 digit number with decimal>>>
So by viewing that number how do you know if the player has Power, hits for avg, great on D, runs bases well??? It doesn’t tell you anything. You need to go back to the basic stats for any detail
1. Hits/ABs - where hits are subjectively determined by the official scorer on whether the fielder should have converted into an out or not.
2. Everything you said about WAR was correct. However, it doesn't make the point you think you're making. WAR is like any other stat. It should be used in conjunction with other stats. Just like BA, OBP, SB, Errors, etc. by themselves in a vacuum doesn't tell you the whole story on a player.
Yes it's meant to take everything and boil it down to one number of value. And it does a reasonably good job. If you want to argue it overrates defense, that's fine. I agree with you. But overall, it pretty accurately reflects/differentiates who is replacement level (< 1), solid regular (1.5-3), all star level (4-5), and superstar (6+). Which is it's goal.
Yeah you can find some oddball outliers like a Tommy Edman or Jason Heyward every now and then. But it's not coincidence that the year end WAR leaders also dominate the MVP and CY leaderboards.
How many player hits are determined by the official scorer over the course of the season. And those that are fall under MLB rules
Point out the MLB rule to determine Fantasy AAA player used as the baseline……MLB rule for positional adjustment….etc
And as I’ve stated many times in this thread you need to look at the standard stats anyway to figure out what the WAR# represents…..so why not just begin there?
You can begin, end, or stop off in the middle wherever you want - no one is arguing against looking at more reliable information. But WAR values are part of that reliable information, along with all of the stats you prefer.
I've noted before - WAR is a GM-level statistic, a useful summary of how many more "wins" a player might bring if acquired, and therefore how much money the GM might want to offer to spend on that player.
But WAR isn't going to tell a manager how to use a particular player - what position they should play, where they should hit in the order, etc. The manager has to look at other information to decide that.
Do you think that number correlates to actual WINS? Bob Gibson in ‘68 had 13 SHO, now I don’t know anything more vital and specifically related to a SP and the game than the Pitcher throwing a SHO that would determine the WIN for his team. And he achieved a 11.2WAR. He was 22-9 1.12 ERA for the year.
In those 13 games there was no way the other could win because they didn’t score specifically because of him……
Pujols
‘09
.327, .443, .658, .1.101 , 189OPS+, 47HR, 135RBI, 374TB
9.7WAR
Is there anyone here who thinks AP playing 160games was only responsible for not even 10wins?
ScotchMIrish wrote: ↑18 Mar 2026 10:42 am
There is more nuance to the game of baseball than can be calculated by these sabermetrics stats. The top bWAR on the 1982 Cardinals:
Keith Hernandez (1B): 6.5
That's a world series championship team. Which of those players is not better than Edman in 2025?
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑17 Mar 2026 09:32 am
in 2022. 107 OPS+, no GG, only 57 RBIs, .324 OBP. .265 BA, career high of 111 SOs. Nothing eye popping in the stats line.
Probably because WAR is made up and is essentially pointless.
Absolutely.
Nothing but a short cut parlor game, which only those who do not understand the game place any credence in.
Smart people know better.
Do you even know how either fWAR or bWAR is calculated?
If so, explain how it’s a parlor game.
And for the umpteenth time, what is your best measure for a player’s overall value? RBIs! Ha ha ha
You have no clue. A smart person should know better than to make such an uninformed statement.
They don’t understand. I used to not understand. I used to think it was stupid. Then I decided to spend 30 minutes researching and it now makes perfect sense. It that simple.
I know "WAR" better than the fantasy baseball folks who created it.
I break down data and interpret it for a living
I know my client's businesses better than they do - because that is what I am paid to do.
Reality is, "WAR" is a reverse engineered scheme which is wildly inaccurate, extremely subjective, and should never be used to compare players or establish actual contribution value.
It is a toy for the lazy and uniformed who know little about the game
Would you rather have a 10 war player or a 1 war player?
That’s not the right question. Rather would you take a 6 WAR 1B with 120 RBIs or a 6 WAR SS with pedestrian hitting? Which is more likely to win a pennant for you?
Goldfan wrote: ↑18 Mar 2026 17:19 pm
You could have a team of Edman/Heyward 6-7 WAR players ……probably have the highest TEAM WAR of alltime and the team wouldn’t hit or score.
You’re still allowed to look at BA, HR, OBP, Slugging. War doesn’t replace everything.
Just like BA by itself means nothing.
Just like HRs by itself means nothing.
BA is exactly what I said it was>>>>how often a hitter safely hits the ball
HR is AT LEAST one run produced by the hitter. You know exactly what these stats are
Tell me what a 4.3 WAR player does well?
I don’t expect you to understand it since you couldn’t understand the simple sentences I wrote that you just responded to.
What does batting average alone? Tell you about a player? Nothing. He could bet .300 and have zero home runs, zero stolen bases, zero RBIs, and not be able to catch a ball.
What about home runs? What’s 30 home runs tell you? Nothing. He hit 30 home runs. Struck out 250 times. Batted .150
So even your statistics mean nothing by themselves. You can’t judge a player with just those numbers. And when looking at war, you are still allowed to look at the home runs and batting averages. When you go on baseballreference.com, those statistics are listed right next to war. They didn’t delete them. War doesn’t say that you’re not allowed to look at other statistics.
I think we are talking to walls.
What does a 4.3 WAR player do well?
I know what a .320 BA player does well
I know what a 40HR player does well
So again what does a 4.3 WAR player do well? Waiting. And yes you can always view whatever other stats you like……cop out answer
How do you know that those players are any good by looking at ones batting average and one’s home runs? Tell me how you know they’re good?
You mean other than the 140yrs of accepted baseball standards for excellence? I’ll ask you
Is a .320 batter a good hitter?
Is a 40HR batter a power hitter?
Are these serious questions??
Yes, you should look at other stats to understand more about how a particular player generated their 3, 4, 5 WAR.
However, that doesn't mean that WAR is not valuable.
GMs have to answer the question - every year - of how do I spend my available money to add multiple players to make my roster as good as it could be?
If a GM knows they have to add a starting pitcher, starting 2B and starting OF, and they have choices in the FA market of:
- Player A - SP costing $20 million; Player B - 2B costing $18 million; Player C - OF costing $10 million, or
- Player D - SP costing $30 million; Player E - 2B costing $12 million; Player F - OF costing $6 million; or
- Player G - SP costing $10 million; Player H - 2B costing $10 million; Player I - OF costing $28 million;
etc.
WAR gives them a way to evaluate those combinations of players doing very different things to get an idea of how many "wins" each combination would be expected to add to the team.
That doesn’t mean a 8 war player should have a market value that is exactly 4 times higher than a 2 WAR player. It’s not linear, it’s exponential difference in quality and frequency of players at that level.
An 8 war player only takes up 1 roster spot and 1 lineup spot which makes their production that much more valuable.
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑17 Mar 2026 10:24 am
I think everyone pretty much agrees that defense remains the hardest component of productivity to value in a WAR methodology.
However, defensive value IS real and needs to be accounted for. If someone has a better way of valuing EVERY PLAY made by EVERY PLAYER than DRS, UZR/150, OAA, FRV, etc., we'd all like to hear it.
I hear ya Matt, so why not just stop using WAR as some kind of fact based stat. It’s not….it’s flawed…..and yet its thrown out there right along with BA, OBP, OPS, ERA, WHIP
Literally all those other stats have flaws too...
Really? Over the course of a full season, what flaw is there in BA? Give me 5 guys on the same team who hit .290+ over 150 games in a season and you'll have a good team. It's a factual stat, that has no debate.
Likewise ERA. If your team ERA is in the low 3s, youre going to win more than you lose. How is it flawed?
WAR on the other hand? Let's imagine how many wins this player results in vs if he didnt play. How is that even quantified without knowing what the "replacement " player did?
Seriously? Batting average treats all hits as equal. A single counts the same as a home run in batting average. A .290 pure singles hitter is no where near as valuable as a well rounded slugger (like vintage Pujols) who hits .290.
ERA is literally EARNED run average. A run being deemed earned is completely subjective on the official scoring on errors. Plus, a pitcher with a better defense behind them will be default have a lower ERA than a pitcher on another team with a (bleep) defense (all else being equal).
You arguing ERA isn't flawed is mind blogging.
Batting Avg>>>>hits/ab’s. Very simple equation. You now exactly how often a players hits the ball safely.
WAR>>>Start with fantasy AAA player baseline>>>>adjust for position>>>>adjust for Park>>>>compare against all other at position>>>gives you a 2 digit number with decimal>>>
So by viewing that number how do you know if the player has Power, hits for avg, great on D, runs bases well??? It doesn’t tell you anything. You need to go back to the basic stats for any detail
1. Hits/ABs - where hits are subjectively determined by the official scorer on whether the fielder should have converted into an out or not.
2. Everything you said about WAR was correct. However, it doesn't make the point you think you're making. WAR is like any other stat. It should be used in conjunction with other stats. Just like BA, OBP, SB, Errors, etc. by themselves in a vacuum doesn't tell you the whole story on a player.
Yes it's meant to take everything and boil it down to one number of value. And it does a reasonably good job. If you want to argue it overrates defense, that's fine. I agree with you. But overall, it pretty accurately reflects/differentiates who is replacement level (< 1), solid regular (1.5-3), all star level (4-5), and superstar (6+). Which is it's goal.
Yeah you can find some oddball outliers like a Tommy Edman or Jason Heyward every now and then. But it's not coincidence that the year end WAR leaders also dominate the MVP and CY leaderboards.
How many player hits are determined by the official scorer over the course of the season. And those that are fall under MLB rules
Point out the MLB rule to determine Fantasy AAA player used as the baseline……MLB rule for positional adjustment….etc
And as I’ve stated many times in this thread you need to look at the standard stats anyway to figure out what the WAR# represents…..so why not just begin there?
You can begin, end, or stop off in the middle wherever you want - no one is arguing against looking at more reliable information. But WAR values are part of that reliable information, along with all of the stats you prefer.
I've noted before - WAR is a GM-level statistic, a useful summary of how many more "wins" a player might bring if acquired, and therefore how much money the GM might want to offer to spend on that player.
But WAR isn't going to tell a manager how to use a particular player - what position they should play, where they should hit in the order, etc. The manager has to look at other information to decide that.
Do you think that number correlates to actual WINS? Bob Gibson in ‘68 had 13 SHO, now I don’t know anything more vital and specifically related to a SP and the game than the Pitcher throwing a SHO that would determine the WIN for his team. And he achieved a 11.2WAR. He was 22-9 1.12 ERA for the year.
In those 13 games there was no way the other could win because they didn’t score specifically because of him……
There is a strong correlation between teams with high team WAR and the number of games the teams win. That's been demonstrated over and over again.
So assembling a team with the highest WAR players you can afford, to maximize team WAR, is a great starting point for any GM.
Goldfan wrote: ↑18 Mar 2026 17:19 pm
You could have a team of Edman/Heyward 6-7 WAR players ……probably have the highest TEAM WAR of alltime and the team wouldn’t hit or score.
You’re still allowed to look at BA, HR, OBP, Slugging. War doesn’t replace everything.
Just like BA by itself means nothing.
Just like HRs by itself means nothing.
BA is exactly what I said it was>>>>how often a hitter safely hits the ball
HR is AT LEAST one run produced by the hitter. You know exactly what these stats are
Tell me what a 4.3 WAR player does well?
I don’t expect you to understand it since you couldn’t understand the simple sentences I wrote that you just responded to.
What does batting average alone? Tell you about a player? Nothing. He could bet .300 and have zero home runs, zero stolen bases, zero RBIs, and not be able to catch a ball.
What about home runs? What’s 30 home runs tell you? Nothing. He hit 30 home runs. Struck out 250 times. Batted .150
So even your statistics mean nothing by themselves. You can’t judge a player with just those numbers. And when looking at war, you are still allowed to look at the home runs and batting averages. When you go on baseballreference.com, those statistics are listed right next to war. They didn’t delete them. War doesn’t say that you’re not allowed to look at other statistics.
I think we are talking to walls.
What does a 4.3 WAR player do well?
I know what a .320 BA player does well
I know what a 40HR player does well
So again what does a 4.3 WAR player do well? Waiting. And yes you can always view whatever other stats you like……cop out answer
How do you know that those players are any good by looking at ones batting average and one’s home runs? Tell me how you know they’re good?
You mean other than the 140yrs of accepted baseball standards for excellence? I’ll ask you
Is a .320 batter a good hitter?
Is a 40HR batter a power hitter?
Are these serious questions??
Yes, you should look at other stats to understand more about how a particular player generated their 3, 4, 5 WAR.
However, that doesn't mean that WAR is not valuable.
GMs have to answer the question - every year - of how do I spend my available money to add multiple players to make my roster as good as it could be?
If a GM knows they have to add a starting pitcher, starting 2B and starting OF, and they have choices in the FA market of:
- Player A - SP costing $20 million; Player B - 2B costing $18 million; Player C - OF costing $10 million, or
- Player D - SP costing $30 million; Player E - 2B costing $12 million; Player F - OF costing $6 million; or
- Player G - SP costing $10 million; Player H - 2B costing $10 million; Player I - OF costing $28 million;
etc.
WAR gives them a way to evaluate those combinations of players doing very different things to get an idea of how many "wins" each combination would be expected to add to the team.
That doesn’t mean a 8 war player should have a market value that is exactly 4 times higher than a 2 WAR player. It’s not linear, it’s exponential difference in quality and frequency of players at that level.
An 8 war player only takes up 1 roster spot and 1 lineup spot which makes their production that much more valuable.
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑17 Mar 2026 09:32 am
in 2022. 107 OPS+, no GG, only 57 RBIs, .324 OBP. .265 BA, career high of 111 SOs. Nothing eye popping in the stats line.
Probably because WAR is made up and is essentially pointless.
Absolutely.
Nothing but a short cut parlor game, which only those who do not understand the game place any credence in.
Smart people know better.
Do you even know how either fWAR or bWAR is calculated?
If so, explain how it’s a parlor game.
And for the umpteenth time, what is your best measure for a player’s overall value? RBIs! Ha ha ha
You have no clue. A smart person should know better than to make such an uninformed statement.
They don’t understand. I used to not understand. I used to think it was stupid. Then I decided to spend 30 minutes researching and it now makes perfect sense. It that simple.
I know "WAR" better than the fantasy baseball folks who created it.
I break down data and interpret it for a living
I know my client's businesses better than they do - because that is what I am paid to do.
Reality is, "WAR" is a reverse engineered scheme which is wildly inaccurate, extremely subjective, and should never be used to compare players or establish actual contribution value.
It is a toy for the lazy and uniformed who know little about the game
Would you rather have a 10 war player or a 1 war player?
That’s not the right question. Rather would you take a 6 WAR 1B with 120 RBIs or a 6 WAR SS with pedestrian hitting? Which is more likely to win a pennant for you?
By themselves - neither. It depends on what you have on the rest of your roster.
In 1988, Will Clark was 5.7 fWAR as a 1B and O. Smith was 5.8 fWAR as a SS. Why would you definitively choose Clark over Smith without knowing the rest of your roster?
ClassicO wrote: ↑19 Mar 2026 07:04 am
I think the WAR example of Jazz Chisholm noted above explains why WAR is a good mechanism to provide a quick look at a player’s total value, and allow the dumber people to understand why simple stats like batting average don’t tell the entire picture.
I seldom (never?) see anyone on this board go through the four components I laid out to support Chisholm’s 4.4 WAR:
1. Hitting
2. Defense
3. Base running
4. Positional value
Instead, all I hear is hitting, with an occasional reference to defense. That’s simplistic and frankly just dumb.
Is WAR perfect or exact? Heck no. But it’s a far better estimation of player value than the feeble attempts made by simpletons like Goldfan and Melville.
So we’re too stupid to understand WAR…..but when I ask to explain what solely viewing 4.4 WAR tells me……You’re required to list all the other standard stats to accomplish this.
If I have to look at all the standard stats to understand what 4.4 WAR represents….why don’t I just look at the standard stats??
Yes too stupid for WAR
How many times does it take to get through a thick head that WAR is an estimate of total player value? Your criticism is that it requires elaboration with other stats, which defeats the purpose of an overall estimate!!
In short, WAR is a summary; all the other stats for the four key areas are the details.
WAR exists because 1/1000 people refer to all the component stats - esp guys like you.
But, as you saw with Chisholm, it can be done.
ClassicO wrote: ↑19 Mar 2026 07:04 am
I think the WAR example of Jazz Chisholm noted above explains why WAR is a good mechanism to provide a quick look at a player’s total value, and allow the dumber people to understand why simple stats like batting average don’t tell the entire picture.
I seldom (never?) see anyone on this board go through the four components I laid out to support Chisholm’s 4.4 WAR:
1. Hitting
2. Defense
3. Base running
4. Positional value
Instead, all I hear is hitting, with an occasional reference to defense. That’s simplistic and frankly just dumb.
Is WAR perfect or exact? Heck no. But it’s a far better estimation of player value than the feeble attempts made by simpletons like Goldfan and Melville.
So we’re too stupid to understand WAR…..but when I ask to explain what solely viewing 4.4 WAR tells me……You’re required to list all the other standard stats to accomplish this.
If I have to look at all the standard stats to understand what 4.4 WAR represents….why don’t I just look at the standard stats??
Yes too stupid for WAR
How many times does it take to get through a thick head that WAR is an estimate of total player value? Your criticism is that it requires elaboration with other stats, which defeats the purpose of an overall estimate!!
In short, WAR is a summary; all the other stats for the four key areas are the details.
WAR exists because 1/1000 people refer to all the component stats - esp guys like you.
But, as you saw with Chisholm, it can be done.
Who is helpful too? The top 5% you already know them, they have the highest ranking. The bottom dwellers it really doesn’t matter. So if you’re using it as a real ranking/assessment/value tool and you have a 4.8 vs 5.4…..it tells you nothing. You need to deep dive the standard stats. But you, baseball sites, writers, perhaps FO’s talk and carry on like that 2 digit number with decimal point has great significance. So it’s not just a vague ranking or estimate in analytics land its bible and verse but really conveys nothing. You could be getting an Edman, Heyward, or TGKS.
ClassicO wrote: ↑19 Mar 2026 07:04 am
I think the WAR example of Jazz Chisholm noted above explains why WAR is a good mechanism to provide a quick look at a player’s total value, and allow the dumber people to understand why simple stats like batting average don’t tell the entire picture.
I seldom (never?) see anyone on this board go through the four components I laid out to support Chisholm’s 4.4 WAR:
1. Hitting
2. Defense
3. Base running
4. Positional value
Instead, all I hear is hitting, with an occasional reference to defense. That’s simplistic and frankly just dumb.
Is WAR perfect or exact? Heck no. But it’s a far better estimation of player value than the feeble attempts made by simpletons like Goldfan and Melville.
So we’re too stupid to understand WAR…..but when I ask to explain what solely viewing 4.4 WAR tells me……You’re required to list all the other standard stats to accomplish this.
If I have to look at all the standard stats to understand what 4.4 WAR represents….why don’t I just look at the standard stats??
Yes too stupid for WAR
How many times does it take to get through a thick head that WAR is an estimate of total player value? Your criticism is that it requires elaboration with other stats, which defeats the purpose of an overall estimate!!
In short, WAR is a summary; all the other stats for the four key areas are the details.
WAR exists because 1/1000 people refer to all the component stats - esp guys like you.
But, as you saw with Chisholm, it can be done.
Who is helpful too? The top 5% you already know them, they have the highest ranking. The bottom dwellers it really doesn’t matter. So if you’re using it as a real ranking/assessment/value tool and you have a 4.8 vs 5.4…..it tells you nothing. You need to deep dive the standard stats. But you, baseball sites, writers, perhaps FO’s talk and carry on like that 2 digit number with decimal point has great significance. So it’s not just a vague ranking or estimate in analytics land its bible and verse but really conveys nothing. You could be getting an Edman, Heyward, or TGKS.
Did you intend for that to make any sense? If so, you failed.
ClassicO wrote: ↑19 Mar 2026 07:04 am
I think the WAR example of Jazz Chisholm noted above explains why WAR is a good mechanism to provide a quick look at a player’s total value, and allow the dumber people to understand why simple stats like batting average don’t tell the entire picture.
I seldom (never?) see anyone on this board go through the four components I laid out to support Chisholm’s 4.4 WAR:
1. Hitting
2. Defense
3. Base running
4. Positional value
Instead, all I hear is hitting, with an occasional reference to defense. That’s simplistic and frankly just dumb.
Is WAR perfect or exact? Heck no. But it’s a far better estimation of player value than the feeble attempts made by simpletons like Goldfan and Melville.
So we’re too stupid to understand WAR…..but when I ask to explain what solely viewing 4.4 WAR tells me……You’re required to list all the other standard stats to accomplish this.
If I have to look at all the standard stats to understand what 4.4 WAR represents….why don’t I just look at the standard stats??
Yes too stupid for WAR
How many times does it take to get through a thick head that WAR is an estimate of total player value? Your criticism is that it requires elaboration with other stats, which defeats the purpose of an overall estimate!!
In short, WAR is a summary; all the other stats for the four key areas are the details.
WAR exists because 1/1000 people refer to all the component stats - esp guys like you.
But, as you saw with Chisholm, it can be done.
Who is helpful too? The top 5% you already know them, they have the highest ranking. The bottom dwellers it really doesn’t matter. So if you’re using it as a real ranking/assessment/value tool and you have a 4.8 vs 5.4…..it tells you nothing. You need to deep dive the standard stats. But you, baseball sites, writers, perhaps FO’s talk and carry on like that 2 digit number with decimal point has great significance. So it’s not just a vague ranking or estimate in analytics land its bible and verse but really conveys nothing. You could be getting an Edman, Heyward, or TGKS.
Did you intend for that to make any sense? If so, you failed.
Could you assemble a starting squad using only the position and WAR# as reference? You claim it’s an overall player value catchall estimate.
ClassicO wrote: ↑19 Mar 2026 07:04 am
I think the WAR example of Jazz Chisholm noted above explains why WAR is a good mechanism to provide a quick look at a player’s total value, and allow the dumber people to understand why simple stats like batting average don’t tell the entire picture.
I seldom (never?) see anyone on this board go through the four components I laid out to support Chisholm’s 4.4 WAR:
1. Hitting
2. Defense
3. Base running
4. Positional value
Instead, all I hear is hitting, with an occasional reference to defense. That’s simplistic and frankly just dumb.
Is WAR perfect or exact? Heck no. But it’s a far better estimation of player value than the feeble attempts made by simpletons like Goldfan and Melville.
So we’re too stupid to understand WAR…..but when I ask to explain what solely viewing 4.4 WAR tells me……You’re required to list all the other standard stats to accomplish this.
If I have to look at all the standard stats to understand what 4.4 WAR represents….why don’t I just look at the standard stats??
Yes too stupid for WAR
How many times does it take to get through a thick head that WAR is an estimate of total player value? Your criticism is that it requires elaboration with other stats, which defeats the purpose of an overall estimate!!
In short, WAR is a summary; all the other stats for the four key areas are the details.
WAR exists because 1/1000 people refer to all the component stats - esp guys like you.
But, as you saw with Chisholm, it can be done.
Who is helpful too? The top 5% you already know them, they have the highest ranking. The bottom dwellers it really doesn’t matter. So if you’re using it as a real ranking/assessment/value tool and you have a 4.8 vs 5.4…..it tells you nothing. You need to deep dive the standard stats. But you, baseball sites, writers, perhaps FO’s talk and carry on like that 2 digit number with decimal point has great significance. So it’s not just a vague ranking or estimate in analytics land its bible and verse but really conveys nothing. You could be getting an Edman, Heyward, or TGKS.
Did you intend for that to make any sense? If so, you failed.
Could you assemble a starting squad using only the position and WAR# as reference? You claim it’s an overall player value catchall estimate.
Look at my earlier post that lists the top players and teams in WAR last year.
Then do your own dang research.
You’re on the internet so I trust you can do that simple task.
ClassicO wrote: ↑19 Mar 2026 07:04 am
I think the WAR example of Jazz Chisholm noted above explains why WAR is a good mechanism to provide a quick look at a player’s total value, and allow the dumber people to understand why simple stats like batting average don’t tell the entire picture.
I seldom (never?) see anyone on this board go through the four components I laid out to support Chisholm’s 4.4 WAR:
1. Hitting
2. Defense
3. Base running
4. Positional value
Instead, all I hear is hitting, with an occasional reference to defense. That’s simplistic and frankly just dumb.
Is WAR perfect or exact? Heck no. But it’s a far better estimation of player value than the feeble attempts made by simpletons like Goldfan and Melville.
So we’re too stupid to understand WAR…..but when I ask to explain what solely viewing 4.4 WAR tells me……You’re required to list all the other standard stats to accomplish this.
If I have to look at all the standard stats to understand what 4.4 WAR represents….why don’t I just look at the standard stats??
Yes too stupid for WAR
How many times does it take to get through a thick head that WAR is an estimate of total player value? Your criticism is that it requires elaboration with other stats, which defeats the purpose of an overall estimate!!
In short, WAR is a summary; all the other stats for the four key areas are the details.
WAR exists because 1/1000 people refer to all the component stats - esp guys like you.
But, as you saw with Chisholm, it can be done.
Who is helpful too? The top 5% you already know them, they have the highest ranking. The bottom dwellers it really doesn’t matter. So if you’re using it as a real ranking/assessment/value tool and you have a 4.8 vs 5.4…..it tells you nothing. You need to deep dive the standard stats. But you, baseball sites, writers, perhaps FO’s talk and carry on like that 2 digit number with decimal point has great significance. So it’s not just a vague ranking or estimate in analytics land its bible and verse but really conveys nothing. You could be getting an Edman, Heyward, or TGKS.
Did you intend for that to make any sense? If so, you failed.
Could you assemble a starting squad using only the position and WAR# as reference? You claim it’s an overall player value catchall estimate.
Look at my earlier post that lists the top players and teams in WAR last year.
Then do your own dang research.
You’re on the internet so I trust you can do that simple task.
Yeah, I get that the top #’s are the top players…..
You keep referring to VALUE. Since salary plays no part in the equation value really has nothing to do with this. It’s a Ranking system.
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑17 Mar 2026 09:32 am
in 2022. 107 OPS+, no GG, only 57 RBIs, .324 OBP. .265 BA, career high of 111 SOs. Nothing eye popping in the stats line.
Probably because WAR is made up and is essentially pointless.
Absolutely.
Nothing but a short cut parlor game, which only those who do not understand the game place any credence in.
Smart people know better.
Do you even know how either fWAR or bWAR is calculated?
If so, explain how it’s a parlor game.
And for the umpteenth time, what is your best measure for a player’s overall value? RBIs! Ha ha ha
You have no clue. A smart person should know better than to make such an uninformed statement.
They don’t understand. I used to not understand. I used to think it was stupid. Then I decided to spend 30 minutes researching and it now makes perfect sense. It that simple.
I know "WAR" better than the fantasy baseball folks who created it.
I break down data and interpret it for a living
I know my client's businesses better than they do - because that is what I am paid to do.
Reality is, "WAR" is a reverse engineered scheme which is wildly inaccurate, extremely subjective, and should never be used to compare players or establish actual contribution value.
It is a toy for the lazy and uniformed who know little about the game
Would you rather have a 10 war player or a 1 war player?
That’s not the right question. Rather would you take a 6 WAR 1B with 120 RBIs or a 6 WAR SS with pedestrian hitting? Which is more likely to win a pennant for you?
By themselves - neither. It depends on what you have on the rest of your roster.
In 1988, Will Clark was 5.7 fWAR as a 1B and O. Smith was 5.8 fWAR as a SS. Why would you definitively choose Clark over Smith without knowing the rest of your roster?
All else equal the market says Clark. He signed a $3.75M AAV contract in 1990 while Ozzie topped out under 2M not that much earlier in 1987. Over the long run the market get these things right more often than not.
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑17 Mar 2026 09:32 am
in 2022. 107 OPS+, no GG, only 57 RBIs, .324 OBP. .265 BA, career high of 111 SOs. Nothing eye popping in the stats line.
Probably because WAR is made up and is essentially pointless.
Absolutely.
Nothing but a short cut parlor game, which only those who do not understand the game place any credence in.
Smart people know better.
Do you even know how either fWAR or bWAR is calculated?
If so, explain how it’s a parlor game.
And for the umpteenth time, what is your best measure for a player’s overall value? RBIs! Ha ha ha
You have no clue. A smart person should know better than to make such an uninformed statement.
They don’t understand. I used to not understand. I used to think it was stupid. Then I decided to spend 30 minutes researching and it now makes perfect sense. It that simple.
I know "WAR" better than the fantasy baseball folks who created it.
I break down data and interpret it for a living
I know my client's businesses better than they do - because that is what I am paid to do.
Reality is, "WAR" is a reverse engineered scheme which is wildly inaccurate, extremely subjective, and should never be used to compare players or establish actual contribution value.
It is a toy for the lazy and uniformed who know little about the game
Would you rather have a 10 war player or a 1 war player?
That’s not the right question. Rather would you take a 6 WAR 1B with 120 RBIs or a 6 WAR SS with pedestrian hitting? Which is more likely to win a pennant for you?
By themselves - neither. It depends on what you have on the rest of your roster.
In 1988, Will Clark was 5.7 fWAR as a 1B and O. Smith was 5.8 fWAR as a SS. Why would you definitively choose Clark over Smith without knowing the rest of your roster?
All else equal the market says Clark. He signed a $3.75M AAV contract in 1990 while Ozzie topped out under 2M not that much earlier in 1987. Over the long run the market get these things right more often than not.
Clark had an 8.1 fWAR season in 1989 and was 26 in 1990. Smith never had a season that good and was entering his mid-30s at that time.
