mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 05:44 am
To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.
I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.
That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.
Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce (and they need to produce another one in Doyle or somebody else).
And they need to use their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are NOT putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.
The contingent who wants the Cardinals to go out and spend a lot of money to "compete now" in 2026 are the ones who need Wetherholt to be a 4+ fWAR player from Day 1 (even if they don't realize it) in order for the Cardinals to have even ~90 win talent in 2026.
Matt, I’ve held my keystrokes long enough on this WAR, FWAR, BWAR nonsense….you post these Single digit numbers like it represents something. When in actually it could mean anything….
Masyn Winn
2025
3.5FWAR
.253
9HR
51 RBI
.637 OPS
GG
I’m assuming a large portion of his WAR came from his D. So what if you had these 3.5-4 WAR players all over the diamond like WINN. Great D, really not much offense. Thats not a good team. The offense would suck…..they won’t score many runs….but in your assessment those are very good players. In ‘24 BWAR had Winn at 5.3. His offensive numbers were a little better than last year, but again a team full of 5.3 Winns isn’t going to score enough and yet your heralding these WAR numbers.
You have to have players who do complementary things.
No DH, 1B, LF, etc. is going to ever be a 3.5-4 fWAR player based on defense. They would have to hit their way to that level.
So you can't have a team of "all Masyn Winn's" being 3.5+ fWAR players.
You WAR fellas would have team full of Winns, Edman’s, Heywards with 5-6WAR and wonder why you can’t score 3runs/game
Lifetime WAR
Ryan Howard
14.5 WAR
382HR
.258BA
1200RBI
.859OPS
Brendan Ryan
15.1WAR
19HR
.233
.607OPS
Now as good as Ryan was at SS and maybe he’s worth 15.1WAR……Howard only having 14.5WAR is a complete joke. Again this number means nothing unless it is something to look at in a complete stat line.
Career fWAR:
Howard - 19.4
Ryan - 8.6
Ryan Howard was good for 4.5 seasons, with one great season in there. He then had two mediocre to average seasons (30 HRs, 120-125 wRC+, 1-1.5 fWAR in 2010 and 2011) and then he was replacement level after that. Howard having 15-20 career WAR is not a joke. He hit HRs but wasn't very good at anything else and he was a terrible defender, base runner, and struck out a ton.
And, in fWAR, an average defensive SS is going to have a built in ~2 fWAR advantage over an average defensive 1B per 162 games played (just based on positional adjustment alone).
Just being able to play SS at the ML level vs. just being able to play 1B is worth about 2 fWAR in value per year.
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 05:44 am
To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.
I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.
That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.
Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce (and they need to produce another one in Doyle or somebody else).
And they need to use their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are NOT putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.
The contingent who wants the Cardinals to go out and spend a lot of money to "compete now" in 2026 are the ones who need Wetherholt to be a 4+ fWAR player from Day 1 (even if they don't realize it) in order for the Cardinals to have even ~90 win talent in 2026.
Matt, I’ve held my keystrokes long enough on this WAR, FWAR, BWAR nonsense….you post these Single digit numbers like it represents something. When in actually it could mean anything….
Masyn Winn
2025
3.5FWAR
.253
9HR
51 RBI
.637 OPS
GG
I’m assuming a large portion of his WAR came from his D. So what if you had these 3.5-4 WAR players all over the diamond like WINN. Great D, really not much offense. Thats not a good team. The offense would suck…..they won’t score many runs….but in your assessment those are very good players. In ‘24 BWAR had Winn at 5.3. His offensive numbers were a little better than last year, but again a team full of 5.3 Winns isn’t going to score enough and yet your heralding these WAR numbers.
You have to have players who do complementary things.
No DH, 1B, LF, etc. is going to ever be a 3.5-4 fWAR player based on defense. They would have to hit their way to that level.
So you can't have a team of "all Masyn Winn's" being 3.5+ fWAR players.
You WAR fellas would have team full of Winns, Edman’s, Heywards with 5-6WAR and wonder why you can’t score 3runs/game
Lifetime WAR
Ryan Howard
14.5 WAR
382HR
.258BA
1200RBI
.859OPS
Brendan Ryan
15.1WAR
19HR
.233
.607OPS
Now as good as Ryan was at SS and maybe he’s worth 15.1WAR……Howard only having 14.5WAR is a complete joke. Again this number means nothing unless it is something to look at in a complete stat line.
What is bad about using it as a quick reference and not as an absolute?
In your example above, you being a baseball guy, know that Brendan didn't get his
value with his bat. It came with other attributes that he must excel at. If your team needs
run prevention more than run creation your team might receive most of his
WAR value. At 1B >3 WAR in a season is among the leaders, probably his bat achieved it.
In Howards case using WAR you quickly see his top seasons as well as when he began to fade
until he began putting up negative WAR for some 5 seasons.
I'm mostly indifferent with WAR. There other ways to get to the same spot. But when comparing
players who all play the same spot it does its intent well. I'd open my arms to any player that's top 8
in WAR at each position.
rbirules wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 10:58 amCareer fWAR:
Howard - 19.4
Ryan - 8.6
Ryan Howard was good for 4.5 seasons, with one great season in there. He then had two mediocre to average seasons (30 HRs, 120-125 wRC+, 1-1.5 fWAR in 2010 and 2011) and then he was replacement level after that. Howard having 15-20 career WAR is not a joke. He hit HRs but wasn't very good at anything else and he was a terrible defender, base runner, and struck out a ton.
So Ryan Howard had 4.5 good seasons but managed to finish in the top 10 for MVP 6 times, and a 7th season with a ROY award? Which season was the great one, when he had the .881 OPS w/ 48/146 (led the league in both), when he had a .931 OPS w/ 45/141 (led the league in RBI), or maybe when he had a .976 OPS w/ 47/136, or I'm guessing it was just the one with a 1.084 OPS w/ 58/149.
Those mediocre seasons you speak of in 2010 and 2011, he finished 10th in the MVP vote. I guess the other 350+ position players were average or worse.
Yes. The ROY season was his half good year (88 games played). He was good in each of the four years after that finishing 1st*, 5th, 2nd and 3rd in the MVP voting. He then finished 10th in the MVP voting in both 2010 and 2011 in which voters apparently voted for him because he had 30+ HR and 100+ RBI on a contender. In 2010 he was 3rd on his own team in the MVP voting and probably the 7th or 8th best player on that team. A lot of voters were still stuck in the past at that time.
Of the 25 players that got votes for NL MVP in 2010 Howard and the lowest bWAR, and it wasn't close. Of the 23 players that got votes for NL MVP in 2011 Howard had the lowest bWAR (below a RP) and it wasn't close. There were lots of players better than him in both of those years, but voters like traditional "middle of the order" power numbers when voting and ignored much more pertinent information.
*Pujols was robbed of the MVP in 2006, he was superior to Howard.
If 30 and 100 while maintaining an AVG of .253 and .276 is mediocre, then we have very different views of the term mediocre. You can use WAR, fWAR and bWAR if you want. I still like statistics that are directly tied to getting guys across the plate. The more indirectly tied the stat is to scoring runs, the more room for interpretation there is, even when factoring in the overall goal of advance stats which is to level the playing field. They may do that while at the same time producing a non-meaningful or wildly inconsistent metric.
Case in point, I'll take Ryan Howard over Brendan Ryan and so would 100 of every 100 people, regardless of what WAR says.
Mediocre if it comes in the form of a player that can only DH or play 1B poorly, doesn't walk much more than average, and adds no value on the base paths.
In 2010 the Phillies had the following position players (wRC+, OPS):
Werth - 146, .921
Howard - 127, .859
Ruiz - 127, .847
Utley - 128, .832
Ibanez - 110, .793
Victorino - 102, .756 (GG CF)
Polanco - 96, .726
Rollins - injured, down year
Werth outhit Howard and was higher in the MVP voting. Ruiz matched Howard hitting overall and plays catcher (I'd say that's more valuable). Utley matched Howard's hitting overall and plays 2B (I'd say that's more valuable). Then you get to tougher calls about how much value offense at 1B has compared to less offense but a tougher position (GG in CF for Victorino). Howard hit HRs (just over 30 in both 2010 and 2011, not 45-58 HRs like in 2006-2009), but his RBI totals are definitely influenced by his teammates.
Based on the metrics I shared I'd take Howard over Ryan as well (19.4 fWAR vs. 8.6 fWAR) . . . unless I was the Cardinals in 2005-2011 and already had Albert Pujols in which case Brendan Ryan fits my roster a lot better.
rbirules wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 10:58 amCareer fWAR:
Howard - 19.4
Ryan - 8.6
Ryan Howard was good for 4.5 seasons, with one great season in there. He then had two mediocre to average seasons (30 HRs, 120-125 wRC+, 1-1.5 fWAR in 2010 and 2011) and then he was replacement level after that. Howard having 15-20 career WAR is not a joke. He hit HRs but wasn't very good at anything else and he was a terrible defender, base runner, and struck out a ton.
So Ryan Howard had 4.5 good seasons but managed to finish in the top 10 for MVP 6 times, and a 7th season with a ROY award? Which season was the great one, when he had the .881 OPS w/ 48/146 (led the league in both), when he had a .931 OPS w/ 45/141 (led the league in RBI), or maybe when he had a .976 OPS w/ 47/136, or I'm guessing it was just the one with a 1.084 OPS w/ 58/149.
Those mediocre seasons you speak of in 2010 and 2011, he finished 10th in the MVP vote. I guess the other 350+ position players were average or worse.
Yes. The ROY season was his half good year (88 games played). He was good in each of the four years after that finishing 1st*, 5th, 2nd and 3rd in the MVP voting. He then finished 10th in the MVP voting in both 2010 and 2011 in which voters apparently voted for him because he had 30+ HR and 100+ RBI on a contender. In 2010 he was 3rd on his own team in the MVP voting and probably the 7th or 8th best player on that team. A lot of voters were still stuck in the past at that time.
Of the 25 players that got votes for NL MVP in 2010 Howard and the lowest bWAR, and it wasn't close. Of the 23 players that got votes for NL MVP in 2011 Howard had the lowest bWAR (below a RP) and it wasn't close. There were lots of players better than him in both of those years, but voters like traditional "middle of the order" power numbers when voting and ignored much more pertinent information.
*Pujols was robbed of the MVP in 2006, he was superior to Howard.
Yeah, I like those too. I prefer those since they are actual real stats, not some made up formula gibberish.
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 05:44 am
To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.
I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.
That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.
Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce (and they need to produce another one in Doyle or somebody else).
And they need to use their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are NOT putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.
The contingent who wants the Cardinals to go out and spend a lot of money to "compete now" in 2026 are the ones who need Wetherholt to be a 4+ fWAR player from Day 1 (even if they don't realize it) in order for the Cardinals to have even ~90 win talent in 2026.
Matt, I’ve held my keystrokes long enough on this WAR, FWAR, BWAR nonsense….you post these Single digit numbers like it represents something. When in actually it could mean anything….
Masyn Winn
2025
3.5FWAR
.253
9HR
51 RBI
.637 OPS
GG
I’m assuming a large portion of his WAR came from his D. So what if you had these 3.5-4 WAR players all over the diamond like WINN. Great D, really not much offense. Thats not a good team. The offense would suck…..they won’t score many runs….but in your assessment those are very good players. In ‘24 BWAR had Winn at 5.3. His offensive numbers were a little better than last year, but again a team full of 5.3 Winns isn’t going to score enough and yet your heralding these WAR numbers.
You have to have players who do complementary things.
No DH, 1B, LF, etc. is going to ever be a 3.5-4 fWAR player based on defense. They would have to hit their way to that level.
So you can't have a team of "all Masyn Winn's" being 3.5+ fWAR players.
You WAR fellas would have team full of Winns, Edman’s, Heywards with 5-6WAR and wonder why you can’t score 3runs/game
Lifetime WAR
Ryan Howard
14.5 WAR
382HR
.258BA
1200RBI
.859OPS
Brendan Ryan
15.1WAR
19HR
.233
.607OPS
Now as good as Ryan was at SS and maybe he’s worth 15.1WAR……Howard only having 14.5WAR is a complete joke. Again this number means nothing unless it is something to look at in a complete stat line.
Career fWAR:
Howard - 19.4
Ryan - 8.6
Ryan Howard was good for 4.5 seasons, with one great season in there. He then had two mediocre to average seasons (30 HRs, 120-125 wRC+, 1-1.5 fWAR in 2010 and 2011) and then he was replacement level after that. Howard having 15-20 career WAR is not a joke. He hit HRs but wasn't very good at anything else and he was a terrible defender, base runner, and struck out a ton.
And, in fWAR, an average defensive SS is going to have a built in ~2 fWAR advantage over an average defensive 1B per 162 games played (just based on positional adjustment alone).
Just being able to play SS at the ML level vs. just being able to play 1B is worth about 2 fWAR in value per year.
Yep, compare Howard in his 30 HR 100 RBI seasons to one of his teammates around that time . . .
Rollins in 2007 had 30 HRs, and 97 RBI (hitting leadoff) with a 119 wRC+ and a .875 OPS.
Howard in 2010 had 31 HRs, 108 RBI (batting cleanup) with a 127 wRC+ and a .859 OPS.
Rollins had 6.5 fWAR, Howard had 0.9 fWAR. Howard was -7.2 runs on the bases, Rollins was +11.8 (19 run difference, or 1.9 WAR). Howard was -12.4 runs in the field at 1B (not positional adj), Rollins was +2.6 (15 run difference, or 1.5 WAR). And the positional adjustment was -10.8 for Howard and +7.4 for Rollins (18.2 runs or 1.8 WAR). 1.9 + 1.5 + 1.8 = 5.2 WAR difference (league and replacement adjustments make up the rest of the 5.7 WAR difference).
Ironically Utley was even more valuable than Rollins in 2007 but Rollins won the MVP.
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 05:44 am
To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.
I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.
That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.
Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce (and they need to produce another one in Doyle or somebody else).
And they need to use their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are NOT putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.
The contingent who wants the Cardinals to go out and spend a lot of money to "compete now" in 2026 are the ones who need Wetherholt to be a 4+ fWAR player from Day 1 (even if they don't realize it) in order for the Cardinals to have even ~90 win talent in 2026.
Given his age, college experience, talent, etc if he’s going to pan out I expect him to be 4 War by 2026 — assuming no injuries or any weird setbacks (mismanagement) — otherwise it probably won’t happen on an annual basis.
How many rookies, of any age, are All-Stars and, arguably, the best player on their team in their rookie season?
We know that the aging curve for most MLB players has them hitting their peak "prime" years from about age 26 to age 30.
Wetherholt's age 26 season won't be until 2029.
While I think he’s capable of 4 WAR in his rookie year I meant 2027 (not 2026) which should be his second full season. My mistake. And I’m also betting against the sophomore slump.
I agree with prime age curve and my hope is JJW is closer to 6+ fWAR during peak years.
Yes that is elite and the Cards need it to happen. He would probably have to max his potential to do so. Also probably depends where plays defense.
Note: Winn, mostly glove SS, was 3.6 and 3.5 fWAR age 22 and 23 seasons and I expect/HOPE JJW to be all around more productive. I don’t normally buy into the prospect hype anymore but he was the guy I wanted the Cards to draft and I rarely get my asset acquisition wish with either the Blues or Cards.
