Why all the JJ hype.

[Goldfan]

To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.

I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.

That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.

Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce (and they need to produce another one in Doyle or somebody else).

And they need to use their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are NOT putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.

The contingent who wants the Cardinals to go out and spend a lot of money to "compete now" in 2026 are the ones who need Wetherholt to be a 4+ fWAR player from Day 1 (even if they don't realize it) in order for the Cardinals to have even ~90 win talent in 2026.

Matt, I’ve held my keystrokes long enough on this WAR, FWAR, BWAR nonsense….you post these Single digit numbers like it represents something. When in actually it could mean anything….
Masyn Winn
2025
3.5FWAR
.253
9HR
51 RBI
.637 OPS
GG
I’m assuming a large portion of his WAR came from his D. So what if you had these 3.5-4 WAR players all over the diamond like WINN. Great D, really not much offense. Thats not a good team. The offense would suck…..they won’t score many runs….but in your assessment those are very good players. In ‘24 BWAR had Winn at 5.3. His offensive numbers were a little better than last year, but again a team full of 5.3 Winns isn’t going to score enough and yet your heralding these WAR numbers.

You have to have players who do complementary things.

No DH, 1B, LF, etc. is going to ever be a 3.5-4 fWAR player based on defense. They would have to hit their way to that level.

So you can't have a team of "all Masyn Winn's" being 3.5+ fWAR players.

You WAR fellas would have team full of Winns, Edman’s, Heywards with 5-6WAR and wonder why you can’t score 3runs/game

Lifetime WAR
Ryan Howard
14.5 WAR
382HR
.258BA
1200RBI
.859OPS

Brendan Ryan
15.1WAR
19HR
.233
.607OPS
Now as good as Ryan was at SS and maybe he’s worth 15.1WAR……Howard only having 14.5WAR is a complete joke. Again this number means nothing unless it is something to look at in a complete stat line.

[rockondlouie]

John Denton
@JohnDenton555

#STLCards MILB Player of the Year JJ Wetherholt on being at the precipice of his MLB career:

“Something I’m trying to do now is not buy in to myself or everybody talking about me. … That’s been my focus -- drown out the noise and enjoy this process.”

[rbirules]

To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.

I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.

That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.

Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce (and they need to produce another one in Doyle or somebody else).

And they need to use their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are NOT putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.

The contingent who wants the Cardinals to go out and spend a lot of money to "compete now" in 2026 are the ones who need Wetherholt to be a 4+ fWAR player from Day 1 (even if they don't realize it) in order for the Cardinals to have even ~90 win talent in 2026.

Matt, I’ve held my keystrokes long enough on this WAR, FWAR, BWAR nonsense….you post these Single digit numbers like it represents something. When in actually it could mean anything….
Masyn Winn
2025
3.5FWAR
.253
9HR
51 RBI
.637 OPS
GG
I’m assuming a large portion of his WAR came from his D. So what if you had these 3.5-4 WAR players all over the diamond like WINN. Great D, really not much offense. Thats not a good team. The offense would suck…..they won’t score many runs….but in your assessment those are very good players. In ‘24 BWAR had Winn at 5.3. His offensive numbers were a little better than last year, but again a team full of 5.3 Winns isn’t going to score enough and yet your heralding these WAR numbers.

You have to have players who do complementary things.

No DH, 1B, LF, etc. is going to ever be a 3.5-4 fWAR player based on defense. They would have to hit their way to that level.

So you can't have a team of "all Masyn Winn's" being 3.5+ fWAR players.

You WAR fellas would have team full of Winns, Edman’s, Heywards with 5-6WAR and wonder why you can’t score 3runs/game

Lifetime WAR
Ryan Howard
14.5 WAR
382HR
.258BA
1200RBI
.859OPS

Brendan Ryan
15.1WAR
19HR
.233

.607OPS
Now as good as Ryan was at SS and maybe he’s worth 15.1WAR……Howard only having 14.5WAR is a complete joke. Again this number means nothing unless it is something to look at in a complete stat line.

Career fWAR:
Howard - 19.4
Ryan - 8.6

Ryan Howard was good for 4.5 seasons, with one great season in there. He then had two mediocre to average seasons (30 HRs, 120-125 wRC+, 1-1.5 fWAR in 2010 and 2011) and then he was replacement level after that. Howard having 15-20 career WAR is not a joke. He hit HRs but wasn't very good at anything else and he was a terrible defender, base runner, and struck out a ton.

[woofy25]

To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.

I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.

That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.

Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce.

And they need to just their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are not putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.

Yes . You have been clear. Again not a JJ bash here. Just worried the kid might have growing pains, counter to everyone’s expectations.

Then concerned if he isn’t all that initially , how it affects your model going forward. I like your layout. I’m now starting to pick at it to determine the durability and endurance of time.

Yes, people love to get on they hype train. They did with Gorman. They did it with a Walker ST. They did it with Winn's offensive ST. They did it with Scott's offensive ST. They're now doing it with JJ. But, but, this time is different. Maybe, but also maybe, people are jaded with hope and rankings, and don't learn from prior experience with this organization. Maybe the development arm of the organization is different now. Hope so.

I'll admit, I believe JJ should be in the OD lineup, especially if Donovan and Arenado are gone, but I don't expect him to hit .300 with 25HRs and 35 doubles.

[woofy25]

To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.

I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.

That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.

Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce (and they need to produce another one in Doyle or somebody else).

And they need to use their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are NOT putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.

The contingent who wants the Cardinals to go out and spend a lot of money to "compete now" in 2026 are the ones who need Wetherholt to be a 4+ fWAR player from Day 1 (even if they don't realize it) in order for the Cardinals to have even ~90 win talent in 2026.

Matt, I’ve held my keystrokes long enough on this WAR, FWAR, BWAR nonsense….you post these Single digit numbers like it represents something. When in actually it could mean anything….
Masyn Winn
2025
3.5FWAR
.253
9HR
51 RBI
.637 OPS
GG
I’m assuming a large portion of his WAR came from his D. So what if you had these 3.5-4 WAR players all over the diamond like WINN. Great D, really not much offense. Thats not a good team. The offense would suck…..they won’t score many runs….but in your assessment those are very good players. In ‘24 BWAR had Winn at 5.3. His offensive numbers were a little better than last year, but again a team full of 5.3 Winns isn’t going to score enough and yet your heralding these WAR numbers.

You have to have players who do complementary things.

No DH, 1B, LF, etc. is going to ever be a 3.5-4 fWAR player based on defense. They would have to hit their way to that level.

So you can't have a team of "all Masyn Winn's" being 3.5+ fWAR players.

You WAR fellas would have team full of Winns, Edman’s, Heywards with 5-6WAR and wonder why you can’t score 3runs/game

Lifetime WAR
Ryan Howard
14.5 WAR
382HR
.258BA
1200RBI
.859OPS

Brendan Ryan
15.1WAR
19HR
.233

.607OPS
Now as good as Ryan was at SS and maybe he’s worth 15.1WAR……Howard only having 14.5WAR is a complete joke. Again this number means nothing unless it is something to look at in a complete stat line.

Career fWAR:
Howard - 19.4
Ryan - 8.6

Ryan Howard was good for 4.5 seasons, with one great season in there. He then had two mediocre to average seasons (30 HRs, 120-125 wRC+, 1-1.5 fWAR in 2010 and 2011) and then he was replacement level after that. Howard having 15-20 career WAR is not a joke. He hit HRs but wasn't very good at anything else and he was a terrible defender, base runner, and struck out a ton.

So Ryan Howard had 4.5 good seasons but managed to finish in the top 10 for MVP 6 times, and a 7th season with a ROY award? Which season was the great one, when he had the .881 OPS w/ 48/146 (led the league in both), when he had a .931 OPS w/ 45/141 (led the league in RBI), or maybe when he had a .976 OPS w/ 47/136, or I'm guessing it was just the one with a 1.084 OPS w/ 58/149.

Those mediocre seasons you speak of in 2010 and 2011, he finished 10th in the MVP vote. I guess the other 350+ position players were average or worse.

[Cardinals4Life]

WAR is a complete joke!
Baseball is played by men on the diamond, not by geeks on a laptop.
As much as you want to try and use numbers to predict and build a team, baseball is so much more than that. You have to have baseball men that know what they have and need, know baseball, know how to construct a team that gels and compliments each other, and know what the heck they are doing. This eliminates Oli as manager.

[blackinkbiz]

Good morning.

Very foggy out. Why all the hype.

This board has all ready given him a GG and selected him to be an allstar. I’ve never seen so much guaranteed optimism. I’m happy.

This is the major leagues. No one takes it by storm a whole season. Slumps and injuries will take their toll. How long is key.

I think of Mattmitch as I write this. He has JJ line itemed at a four War slot. His model cannot accept failure at that level. It would take 2 two war players to make up the discrepancy.

A lot of hope is being hyped here. In fact more hype than failure. Dangerous.

My point. A lot of eggs are being put in JJ basket. He seems as of the moment to be the biggest off season acquisition. Anything less than the hype will be tough on the team as a whole.

Any concerns about the optimism.

Yeah, I'm beyond sick of this doom'n'gloom overcast and fog that has gripped this sh*t city all week. Man does this (bleep) put a damper on my mood.

Anyways, I've seen nothing of JJ beyond his highlight clips and after how many hyped up top-5 prospects have turned to garbage with this organization, I have 0 expectations until it happens.

The Walker burn is just too deep. Never again. lol

[Strummer Jones]

I have no concerns about JJ's defense. He's a guy who's here to hit. I don't think he's going to be a bad defensive player, but perfectly average.

I think like Jhonny Peralta. Jhonny was not a strong defensive shortstop, but he made all of the plays he got to. To me, that's where I think JJ is. And that's fine. He'll hit enough to bridge the gap.

[Goldfan]

WAR is a complete joke!
Baseball is played by men on the diamond, not by geeks on a laptop.
As much as you want to try and use numbers to predict and build a team, baseball is so much more than that. You have to have baseball men that know what they have and need, know baseball, know how to construct a team that gels and compliments each other, and know what the heck they are doing. This eliminates Oli as manager.

Those rating systems are heavily skewed to D and baserunning. Heyward is the great example…how many balls over the season did he really produce an out in RF over the regular above avg defender?? How many of those really mattered?? And somehow this single digit with decimal point is rationalize as THE tool and number where each player must be. Look at Matt’s ARB schedule….it looks highly professional and thought out but what does it really signify? You could have Winn type players at each position in the infield….rock solid infield defensively….boast about your 4-5 WAR….it fills in the ARB schedule and you have no offense.

[Goldfan]

To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.

I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.

That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.

Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce (and they need to produce another one in Doyle or somebody else).

And they need to use their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are NOT putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.

The contingent who wants the Cardinals to go out and spend a lot of money to "compete now" in 2026 are the ones who need Wetherholt to be a 4+ fWAR player from Day 1 (even if they don't realize it) in order for the Cardinals to have even ~90 win talent in 2026.

Matt, I’ve held my keystrokes long enough on this WAR, FWAR, BWAR nonsense….you post these Single digit numbers like it represents something. When in actually it could mean anything….
Masyn Winn
2025
3.5FWAR
.253
9HR
51 RBI
.637 OPS
GG
I’m assuming a large portion of his WAR came from his D. So what if you had these 3.5-4 WAR players all over the diamond like WINN. Great D, really not much offense. Thats not a good team. The offense would suck…..they won’t score many runs….but in your assessment those are very good players. In ‘24 BWAR had Winn at 5.3. His offensive numbers were a little better than last year, but again a team full of 5.3 Winns isn’t going to score enough and yet your heralding these WAR numbers.

You have to have players who do complementary things.

No DH, 1B, LF, etc. is going to ever be a 3.5-4 fWAR player based on defense. They would have to hit their way to that level.

So you can't have a team of "all Masyn Winn's" being 3.5+ fWAR players.

You WAR fellas would have team full of Winns, Edman’s, Heywards with 5-6WAR and wonder why you can’t score 3runs/game

Lifetime WAR
Ryan Howard
14.5 WAR
382HR
.258BA
1200RBI
.859OPS

Brendan Ryan
15.1WAR
19HR
.233

.607OPS
Now as good as Ryan was at SS and maybe he’s worth 15.1WAR……Howard only having 14.5WAR is a complete joke. Again this number means nothing unless it is something to look at in a complete stat line.

Career fWAR:
Howard - 19.4
Ryan - 8.6

Ryan Howard was good for 4.5 seasons, with one great season in there. He then had two mediocre to average seasons (30 HRs, 120-125 wRC+, 1-1.5 fWAR in 2010 and 2011) and then he was replacement level after that. Howard having 15-20 career WAR is not a joke. He hit HRs but wasn't very good at anything else and he was a terrible defender, base runner, and struck out a ton.

So Ryan Howard had 4.5 good seasons but managed to finish in the top 10 for MVP 6 times, and a 7th season with a ROY award? Which season was the great one, when he had the .881 OPS w/ 48/146 (led the league in both), when he had a .931 OPS w/ 45/141 (led the league in RBI), or maybe when he had a .976 OPS w/ 47/136, or I'm guessing it was just the one with a 1.084 OPS w/ 58/149.

Those mediocre seasons you speak of in 2010 and 2011, he finished 10th in the MVP vote. I guess the other 350+ position players were average or worse.

WAR indicates that goofball Brendan Ryan scooping up grounders at SS is the same player as 382HR 1200RBI top 10 MVP voting 6x Howard…Same guy

[rbirules]

Career fWAR:
Howard - 19.4
Ryan - 8.6

Ryan Howard was good for 4.5 seasons, with one great season in there. He then had two mediocre to average seasons (30 HRs, 120-125 wRC+, 1-1.5 fWAR in 2010 and 2011) and then he was replacement level after that. Howard having 15-20 career WAR is not a joke. He hit HRs but wasn't very good at anything else and he was a terrible defender, base runner, and struck out a ton.

So Ryan Howard had 4.5 good seasons but managed to finish in the top 10 for MVP 6 times, and a 7th season with a ROY award? Which season was the great one, when he had the .881 OPS w/ 48/146 (led the league in both), when he had a .931 OPS w/ 45/141 (led the league in RBI), or maybe when he had a .976 OPS w/ 47/136, or I'm guessing it was just the one with a 1.084 OPS w/ 58/149.

Those mediocre seasons you speak of in 2010 and 2011, he finished 10th in the MVP vote. I guess the other 350+ position players were average or worse.

Yes. The ROY season was his half good year (88 games played). He was good in each of the four years after that finishing 1st*, 5th, 2nd and 3rd in the MVP voting. He then finished 10th in the MVP voting in both 2010 and 2011 in which voters apparently voted for him because he had 30+ HR and 100+ RBI on a contender. In 2010 he was 3rd on his own team in the MVP voting and probably the 7th or 8th best player on that team. A lot of voters were still stuck in the past at that time.

Of the 25 players that got votes for NL MVP in 2010 Howard and the lowest bWAR, and it wasn't close. Of the 23 players that got votes for NL MVP in 2011 Howard had the lowest bWAR (below a RP) and it wasn't close. There were lots of players better than him in both of those years, but voters like traditional "middle of the order" power numbers when voting and ignored much more pertinent information.

*Pujols was robbed of the MVP in 2006, he was superior to Howard.

[Goldfan]

Career fWAR:
Howard - 19.4
Ryan - 8.6

Ryan Howard was good for 4.5 seasons, with one great season in there. He then had two mediocre to average seasons (30 HRs, 120-125 wRC+, 1-1.5 fWAR in 2010 and 2011) and then he was replacement level after that. Howard having 15-20 career WAR is not a joke. He hit HRs but wasn't very good at anything else and he was a terrible defender, base runner, and struck out a ton.

So Ryan Howard had 4.5 good seasons but managed to finish in the top 10 for MVP 6 times, and a 7th season with a ROY award? Which season was the great one, when he had the .881 OPS w/ 48/146 (led the league in both), when he had a .931 OPS w/ 45/141 (led the league in RBI), or maybe when he had a .976 OPS w/ 47/136, or I'm guessing it was just the one with a 1.084 OPS w/ 58/149.

Those mediocre seasons you speak of in 2010 and 2011, he finished 10th in the MVP vote. I guess the other 350+ position players were average or worse.

Yes. The ROY season was his half good year (88 games played). He was good in each of the four years after that finishing 1st*, 5th, 2nd and 3rd in the MVP voting. He then finished 10th in the MVP voting in both 2010 and 2011 in which voters apparently voted for him because he had 30+ HR and 100+ RBI on a contender. In 2010 he was 3rd on his own team in the MVP voting and probably the 7th or 8th best player on that team. A lot of voters were still stuck in the past at that time.

Of the 25 players that got votes for NL MVP in 2010 Howard and the lowest bWAR, and it wasn't close. Of the 23 players that got votes for NL MVP in 2011 Howard had the lowest bWAR (below a RP) and it wasn't close. There were lots of players better than him in both of those years, but voters like traditional "middle of the order" power numbers when voting and ignored much more pertinent information.

*Pujols was robbed of the MVP in 2006, he was superior to Howard.

You keep comparing the illogical voting or perception to WAR……perhaps WAR rating systems are invalid…..ever think of that?
The 2 systems don’t even agree with each other!!!! How can 2 systems that are supposedly the same take the same real world data and spit out different numbers??? Something in the formulas is off, it’s given greater weighting than because of someone’s OPINION,…not hard data OPINION

[rbirules]

Career fWAR:
Howard - 19.4
Ryan - 8.6

Ryan Howard was good for 4.5 seasons, with one great season in there. He then had two mediocre to average seasons (30 HRs, 120-125 wRC+, 1-1.5 fWAR in 2010 and 2011) and then he was replacement level after that. Howard having 15-20 career WAR is not a joke. He hit HRs but wasn't very good at anything else and he was a terrible defender, base runner, and struck out a ton.

So Ryan Howard had 4.5 good seasons but managed to finish in the top 10 for MVP 6 times, and a 7th season with a ROY award? Which season was the great one, when he had the .881 OPS w/ 48/146 (led the league in both), when he had a .931 OPS w/ 45/141 (led the league in RBI), or maybe when he had a .976 OPS w/ 47/136, or I'm guessing it was just the one with a 1.084 OPS w/ 58/149.

Those mediocre seasons you speak of in 2010 and 2011, he finished 10th in the MVP vote. I guess the other 350+ position players were average or worse.

Yes. The ROY season was his half good year (88 games played). He was good in each of the four years after that finishing 1st*, 5th, 2nd and 3rd in the MVP voting. He then finished 10th in the MVP voting in both 2010 and 2011 in which voters apparently voted for him because he had 30+ HR and 100+ RBI on a contender. In 2010 he was 3rd on his own team in the MVP voting and probably the 7th or 8th best player on that team. A lot of voters were still stuck in the past at that time.

Of the 25 players that got votes for NL MVP in 2010 Howard and the lowest bWAR, and it wasn't close. Of the 23 players that got votes for NL MVP in 2011 Howard had the lowest bWAR (below a RP) and it wasn't close. There were lots of players better than him in both of those years, but voters like traditional "middle of the order" power numbers when voting and ignored much more pertinent information.

*Pujols was robbed of the MVP in 2006, he was superior to Howard.

You keep comparing the illogical voting or perception to WAR……perhaps WAR rating systems are invalid…..ever think of that?
The 2 systems don’t even agree with each other!!!! How can 2 systems that are supposedly the same take the same real world data and spit out different numbers??? Something in the formulas is off, it’s given greater weighting than because of someone’s OPINION,…not hard data OPINION

WAR is imperfect, I don't get how it is invalid. It's an incredibly valid and valuable concept by which to judge players. The systems are different because of defensive metrics, which is by far the hardest part of the game to quantify. The defensive input for bWAR has a wider range of outcomes usually so outliers (like extremely good SS and incredibly bad 1B) will have more extreme results compared to that used in fWAR. I think most would agree with a 10-11 WAR gap between Brendan Ryan and Ryan Howard instead of 0 gap.

[mattmitchl44]

You keep comparing the illogical voting or perception to WAR……perhaps WAR rating systems are invalid…..ever think of that?
The 2 systems don’t even agree with each other!!!! How can 2 systems that are supposedly the same take the same real world data and spit out different numbers??? Something in the formulas is off, it’s given greater weighting than because of someone’s OPINION,…not hard data OPINION

Well-formulated and benchmarked WAR methodologies (like fWAR) can't be "invalid" overall.

How do we know that? Because when you look at all ML teams across decades - you find that "team WARs", the sum of the individual player WARs on that team, correlate very well with the actual number of team wins.

Any WAR methodology cannot systematically get the characterization of many players completely wrong and yet, miraculously, all of those wrong player evaluations sum to give team WARs that match team wins. That can't arise by random chance.

Individual WAR methodology can rate players differently. For the majority of players the differences will be small, for a few extreme cases the differences may be larger (particularly for players who get most of their value from defense; and pitchers who have uncharacteristic splits between their ERA and FIP).

But, overall, the WAR methodology simply have to give you a good feeling for what players do, or do not do, that ultimately will lead to team wins.

[woofy25]

Career fWAR:
Howard - 19.4
Ryan - 8.6

Ryan Howard was good for 4.5 seasons, with one great season in there. He then had two mediocre to average seasons (30 HRs, 120-125 wRC+, 1-1.5 fWAR in 2010 and 2011) and then he was replacement level after that. Howard having 15-20 career WAR is not a joke. He hit HRs but wasn't very good at anything else and he was a terrible defender, base runner, and struck out a ton.

So Ryan Howard had 4.5 good seasons but managed to finish in the top 10 for MVP 6 times, and a 7th season with a ROY award? Which season was the great one, when he had the .881 OPS w/ 48/146 (led the league in both), when he had a .931 OPS w/ 45/141 (led the league in RBI), or maybe when he had a .976 OPS w/ 47/136, or I'm guessing it was just the one with a 1.084 OPS w/ 58/149.

Those mediocre seasons you speak of in 2010 and 2011, he finished 10th in the MVP vote. I guess the other 350+ position players were average or worse.

Yes. The ROY season was his half good year (88 games played). He was good in each of the four years after that finishing 1st*, 5th, 2nd and 3rd in the MVP voting. He then finished 10th in the MVP voting in both 2010 and 2011 in which voters apparently voted for him because he had 30+ HR and 100+ RBI on a contender. In 2010 he was 3rd on his own team in the MVP voting and probably the 7th or 8th best player on that team. A lot of voters were still stuck in the past at that time.

Of the 25 players that got votes for NL MVP in 2010 Howard and the lowest bWAR, and it wasn't close. Of the 23 players that got votes for NL MVP in 2011 Howard had the lowest bWAR (below a RP) and it wasn't close. There were lots of players better than him in both of those years, but voters like traditional "middle of the order" power numbers when voting and ignored much more pertinent information.

*Pujols was robbed of the MVP in 2006, he was superior to Howard.

If 30 and 100 while maintaining an AVG of .253 and .276 is mediocre, then we have very different views of the term mediocre. You can use WAR, fWAR and bWAR if you want. I still like statistics that are directly tied to getting guys across the plate. The more indirectly tied the stat is to scoring runs, the more room for interpretation there is, even when factoring in the overall goal of advance stats which is to level the playing field. They may do that while at the same time producing a non-meaningful or wildly inconsistent metric.

Case in point, I'll take Ryan Howard over Brendan Ryan and so would 100 of every 100 people, regardless of what WAR says.

[Carp4Cy]

Good morning.

Very foggy out. Why all the hype.

This board has all ready given him a GG and selected him to be an allstar. I’ve never seen so much guaranteed optimism. I’m happy.

This is the major leagues. No one takes it by storm a whole season. Slumps and injuries will take their toll. How long is key.

I think of Mattmitch as I write this. He has JJ line itemed at a four War slot. His model cannot accept failure at that level. It would take 2 two war players to make up the discrepancy.

Two 2 WAR players does Not even make up the discrepancy. You can only put 9 players in the lineup at a time. Either a 4 WAR player or a 2 WAR player in this scenario, with the other 2 WAR player on the bench, all else equal.

There is a premium for High production players than can't be matched by quantity of JAGs under any circumstance. There's a double premium for guys like Shohei, which the League can barely even calculate because its so unique.