Why all the JJ hype.

[sikeston bulldog2]

Good morning.

Very foggy out. Why all the hype.

This board has all ready given him a GG and selected him to be an allstar. I’ve never seen so much guaranteed optimism. I’m happy.

This is the major leagues. No one takes it by storm a whole season. Slumps and injuries will take their toll. How long is key.

I think of Mattmitch as I write this. He has JJ line itemed at a four War slot. His model cannot accept failure at that level. It would take 2 two war players to make up the discrepancy.

A lot of hope is being hyped here. In fact more hype than failure. Dangerous.

My point. A lot of eggs are being put in JJ basket. He seems as of the moment to be the biggest off season acquisition. Anything less than the hype will be tough on the team as a whole.

Any concerns about the optimism.

[mattmitchl44]

To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.

I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.

That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.

Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce (and they need to produce another one in Doyle or somebody else).

And they need to use their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are NOT putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.

The contingent who wants the Cardinals to go out and spend a lot of money to "compete now" in 2026 are the ones who need Wetherholt to be a 4+ fWAR player from Day 1 (even if they don't realize it) in order for the Cardinals to have even ~90 win talent in 2026.

[sikeston bulldog2]

To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.

I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.

That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.

Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce.

And they need to just their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are not putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.

Yes . You have been clear. Again not a JJ bash here. Just worried the kid might have growing pains, counter to everyone’s expectations.

Then concerned if he isn’t all that initially , how it affects your model going forward. I like your layout. I’m now starting to pick at it to determine the durability and endurance of time.

[mattmitchl44]

To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.

I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.

That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.

Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce.

And they need to just their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are not putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.

Yes . You have been clear. Again not a JJ bash here. Just worried the kid might have growing pains, counter to everyone’s expectations.

Then concerned if he isn’t all that initially , how it affects your model going forward. I like your layout. I’m now starting to pick at it to determine the durability and endurance of time.

As with any plan for an uncertain future, you always have to be ready to make changes as circumstances develop.

If Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. don't become 4+ fWAR players in 3, 4, etc. years, you're going to have to pivot. You might have to start trading Winn, Herrera, etc. for more "high ceiling" prospects to reload and build toward 2032, 2033. That's just reality.

[juan good eye]

To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.

I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.

That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.

Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce (and they need to produce another one in Doyle or somebody else).

And they need to use their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are NOT putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.

The contingent who wants the Cardinals to go out and spend a lot of money to "compete now" in 2026 are the ones who need Wetherholt to be a 4+ fWAR player from Day 1 (even if they don't realize it) in order for the Cardinals to have even ~90 win talent in 2026.

Given his age, college experience, talent, etc if he’s going to pan out I expect him to be 4 War by 2026 — assuming no injuries or any weird setbacks (mismanagement) — otherwise it probably won’t happen on an annual basis.

[sikeston bulldog2]

To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.

I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.

That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.

Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce (and they need to produce another one in Doyle or somebody else).

And they need to use their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are NOT putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.

The contingent who wants the Cardinals to go out and spend a lot of money to "compete now" in 2026 are the ones who need Wetherholt to be a 4+ fWAR player from Day 1 (even if they don't realize it) in order for the Cardinals to have even ~90 win talent in 2026.

Given his age, college experience, talent, etc if he’s going to pan out I expect him to be 4 War by 2026 — assuming no injuries or any weird setbacks (mismanagement) — otherwise it probably won’t happen on an annual basis.

Interesting take - otherwise won’t happen , is exactly my concern. Seems the fan base is rabid for success, it’s been a few minutes. Maybe they lean more towards the fanatics part of fan ship. Hope and Hype- H2.

[mattmitchl44]

To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.

I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.

That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.

Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce (and they need to produce another one in Doyle or somebody else).

And they need to use their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are NOT putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.

The contingent who wants the Cardinals to go out and spend a lot of money to "compete now" in 2026 are the ones who need Wetherholt to be a 4+ fWAR player from Day 1 (even if they don't realize it) in order for the Cardinals to have even ~90 win talent in 2026.

Given his age, college experience, talent, etc if he’s going to pan out I expect him to be 4 War by 2026 — assuming no injuries or any weird setbacks (mismanagement) — otherwise it probably won’t happen on an annual basis.

How many rookies, of any age, are All-Stars and, arguably, the best player on their team in their rookie season?

We know that the aging curve for most MLB players has them hitting their peak "prime" years from about age 26 to age 30.

Wetherholt's age 26 season won't be until 2029.

[Alex Reyes Cy Young]

Is there much offensive talent besides him?

[craviduce]

It doesn't hurt that the kid has hit at an elite level since Child Birth, Sikes

Yes, we tend to hype every well spoken of Prospect, b/c that's what we do...we're fans. But JJ hits different...figuratively speaking. And "hits" better...literally speaking, than every one else.

Hyperbole...he's a future batting champion. I said it before draft day 2024, I'll it again....Future Batting Champion.

[sikeston bulldog2]

It doesn't hurt that the kid has hit at an elite level since Child Birth, Sikes

Yes, we tend to hype every well spoken of Prospect, b/c that's what we do...we're fans. But JJ hits different...figuratively speaking. And "hits" better...literally speaking, than every one else.

Hyperbole...he's a future batting champion. I said it before draft day 2024, I'll it again....Future Batting Champion.

Thanx sir. I hear ya. And I’m with ya. The fun factor will certainly rise. And, if a couple others produce, maybe a team event.

Batting champ. That’s strong, and I like your optimism. Plus you’re the farm guy, you’d know.

[Ace]

For a top 10 prospect, there hasn't been THAT much hype IMO.

Have you watched him play?

[sikeston bulldog2]

For a top 10 prospect, there hasn't been THAT much hype IMO.

Have you watched him play?

No. Just what I read on CT.
Good reference- not much hype. It’s probably just my imagination.

[Ronnie Dobbs]

Why all the hype? I think it's obvious. He was a stud at a top baseball university. He was a guy that could have been drafted first overall and no one would have been surprised. He was the favorite until he had his hammy injuries and was still the favorite in some mock drafts. After being drafted he dominated AA and AAA in his first full year. He's basically a consensus top 10 prospect. Unlike some prospects we've seen, he's basically a complete player out of college and he's shown everything he was hyped up for so far in his career.

I don't know about any Gold Gloves or coming out right away and put up all star like numbers, but there's every indication that he will be a good player. You're right that there will be some ups and downs as he (likely) makes the team out of the spring and grinds through a full MLB season, but I don't think any struggles should indicate that the hype is wrong.

[sikeston bulldog2]

Why all the hype? I think it's obvious. He was a stud at a top baseball university. He was a guy that could have been drafted first overall and no one would have been surprised. He was the favorite until he had his hammy injuries and was still the favorite in some mock drafts. After being drafted he dominated AA and AAA in his first full year. He's basically a consensus top 10 prospect. Unlike some prospects we've seen, he's basically a complete player out of college and he's shown everything he was hyped up for so far in his career.

I don't know about any Gold Gloves or coming out right away and put up all star like numbers, but there's every indication that he will be a good player. You're right that there will be some ups and downs as he (likely) makes the team out of the spring and grinds through a full MLB season, but I don't think any struggles should indicate that the hype is wrong.

Good write. Good point reference- any struggles should not indicate the hype is wrong. Good.

[Hoosier59]

I personally feel JJ will be in the running for Rookie of the Year, but what that looks like will depend on what protection is around him.
If Oli has him hit lead off, wouldn’t it look really good to have a guy behind him, who can take pitches to allow him to steal, or hit behind him in the hole created by the 1st baseman having to hold him close. The Cardinals currently have the perfect guy to do just that! His name is Brendan Donovan. Follow those two with Herrera and Burleson and that’s a pretty good 1-4 line up.

[sikeston bulldog2]

I personally feel JJ will be in the running for Rookie of the Year, but what that looks like will depend on what protection is around him.
If Oli has him hit lead off, wouldn’t it look really good to have a guy behind him, who can take pitches to allow him to steal, or hit behind him in the hole created by the 1st baseman having to hold him close. The Cardinals currently have the perfect guy to do just that! His name is Brendan Donovan. Follow those two with Herrera and Burleson and that’s a pretty good 1-4 line up.

Nice write. Thank you/ the Donovan entry is intriguing. And you didn’t even mention Scott Walker or Winn, if they show progress, then this team is relevant on offense.

And since you mentioned Donovan where does he play. Third?