Offer Sheet and Joel Hofer

[rbirules]

Could I see Edmonton giving him an offer sheet? Sure, why not. But they don’t have a lot of money to work with and unless they get him signed, this could be McDavid’s last year in Edmonton before he can walk away. With so much at risk, do they want to bank on an unproven, young goalie to lead them to the Cup? I like Hofer and definitely hope the Blues get him signed, but I don’t think that is the move the Oilers need to make at this point. But they have bungled the goalie thing for the last decade, so why not keep it going!

The problem would be if they sign Hofer, they can't sign Bouchard without making a move somewhere else.

As badly as they need goaler help, they can't afford to lose Bouchard as their defense is even worse than their goaltending.

Yes, yes I know the stats would tell you they are far better than we give them credit for, but most of their numbers come from teams having to play so defensively when McDavid and Drai are on the ice that it severely diminishes their offensive output.

The only thing funnier (from a schadenfreude perspective) than getting Broberg and Holloway and them breaking out for us, is the Oilers offer sheeting Hofer, us taking their 2nd round pick, only for them to either lose Bouchard because they can't sign him or having to make some really bad moves to rid themselves of other contracts (I honestly don't even know how this is possible), which erodes their roster further and McDavid wants out and their 2nd round pick turns out to be a good one as a result.

Yeah, I mean basically.

Could you imagine the team morale if you lose Bouchard for someone who is a backup currently?

Especially after the off season you had last year?

Man, that would just be a kick in the nuts.

Also, something to keep in mind, we heard the rumors, but Frederic isn't under contract currently so the cap that is showing is without him on it.

If he should sign it all of a sudden the Oil are down to essentially 8 million so they already have to get rid of someone to be cap compliant by the beginning of the year, if they extend Bouchard, and they'll still need 2 more players after that.

Yeah, I don't understand signing Frederic at all until Bouchard is locked up, let alone for that much and for that long. The fact that they can't sign Trent Frederic and their top RFA in Bouchard to a long term deal without somehow giving away an asset they need (ignoring their glaring needs for depth and a goalie upgrade) just clearly shows how bad of a spot they are in. If I was McDavid I'd consider sticking around until the deadline to see if they can run it back one more year to go for it, but there's no way I would sign long term until the GM pulls a few rabbits out of his hat to drastically improve the roster and cap situation.

2026/2027 Roster:
Draisaitl - $14M
Bouchard - $11M?
Nurse - $9.25M
RNH - $5.125M
Hyman - $5.5M
Emberson - $1.3M
Janmark - $1.45
Campbell - $2.6M
Total - $50.25M

2026/2027 cap limit = $104M

They have $54M to fill out their roster, and that's before McDavid. They have one line (Hyman-Drai-RNH), one defensive pair (Bouchard-Nurse), a 3rd pair or 7D in Emberson, and a 3rd or 4th liner in Janmark. Their only goalie is a buyout of Campbell. Janmark and Emberson are FA after 26/27, so they'd have to sign depth players to fill those roles in a higher cap environment.

On the low end let's say McDavid takes $16M, that leaves them $38M to get two goalies, 3-4 defensemen, and 7-8 forwards. If McDavid is closer to $20M, and they sign Hofer to an offer sheet ($4.6M) somehow, then they'd have closer to $30M remaining and you can remove one goalie from their shopping list. I guess Savoie could fill a wing spot, he'll have to. O'Reilly might be forced to start by then. Hyman will be 34 to start that season and RNH will be 33.

[theograce]

People are just tunneled in on the oilers.

Teams are interested in Hofer just like they were with Bishop.

If I’m Hofer’s agent I’m telling him to wait for it

[skilles]

I get the feeling I'm quite a bit higher on Hofer than most.

[rbirules]

People are just tunneled in on the oilers.

Teams are interested in Hofer just like they were with Bishop.

If I’m Hofer’s agent I’m telling him to wait for it

Yeah, I think recency bias (we just saw the Oilers, and their glaring need of a goalie in the finals) and the fact that we signed two of their players to an offer sheet makes a lot of people think the Oilers will offer sheet Hofer, but I don't see how they can do it.

Other teams are much better positioned to do so.

[LGB73]

I get the feeling I'm quite a bit higher on Hofer than most.

I think he's got the potential as well but will he get the opportunity to show it here. If I'm Hofer and believe in myself and want to maximize my career earnings, he's probably thinking he needs to go elsewhere to do that. He's got to be hoping some team sees him as a potential answer to their goaltending question and gives him $4m which I doubt the Blues match.

[theograce]

I get the feeling I'm quite a bit higher on Hofer than most.

He’s one of the best puck managers in the world and has size.

Very much like bishop that way … not quite as big, but reminds me of him

[bluetunehead]

People are just tunneled in on the oilers.

Teams are interested in Hofer just like they were with Bishop.

If I’m Hofer’s agent I’m telling him to wait for it

Yeah, I think recency bias (we just saw the Oilers, and their glaring need of a goalie in the finals) and the fact that we signed two of their players to an offer sheet makes a lot of people think the Oilers will offer sheet Hofer, but I don't see how they can do it.

Other teams are much better positioned to do so.

I'd agree. There is a lot of talk about the Oilers because they need help in goal and got burned by our offer sheets last year, but there are a number of teams who could use a goalie of the future.

NJ, Minnesota, Philly, Detroit, Toronto, Anaheim, and probably more.

I think I'd rather see us work out a trade with one of these teams to try and get an RHD or Middle 6 center option, but we'll see. If he signs an offer sheet he can't be traded for a year.

[somni]

Looking at the bright side, apparently the 2026 draft is supposed to be a good and deep one (maybe MN or Seattle could weigh in). The Blues currently don't have a 2nd, so it wouldn't be the worse thing to gain a 2nd draft pick for that draft.

[TheJackBurton]

Finally an update:

Lou Korac
@lkorac10
·
14m
Doug Armstrong is not concerned about any potential offer sheets for Joel Hofer. They are negotiating with him. #stlblues

[TheJackBurton]

and even more updates, this one a bit more promising:

Andy Strickland
@andystrickland
The Blues and Joel Hofer have begun contract negotiations, he wants to stay and the team wants to keep him. Usually that prevents offer sheets from coming into play. The Blues will likely match any offer sheet that would come their way. Would anticipate a shorter term deal in the 2-3 year range. #stlblues

[kimzey59]

Per Korac:
Armstrong: "I'm very comfortable we can match any offer if we choose to match it. It won't be we didn't match it because we couldn't afford it. It's we didn't match it because we though the value we were getting back was better. That value would have to start with a 1st rd pick."

Translation: "Come at me, bro!!!"

[bluetunehead]

Per Korac:
Armstrong: "I'm very comfortable we can match any offer if we choose to match it. It won't be we didn't match it because we couldn't afford it. It's we didn't match it because we though the value we were getting back was better. That value would have to start with a 1st rd pick."

Translation: "Come at me, bro!!!"

Yeah this is him telling the league they're matching anything in that 2nd round pick value range (up to about 4.6M, like we did with Broberg).

[rbirules]

Per Korac:
Armstrong: "I'm very comfortable we can match any offer if we choose to match it. It won't be we didn't match it because we couldn't afford it. It's we didn't match it because we though the value we were getting back was better. That value would have to start with a 1st rd pick."

Translation: "Come at me, bro!!!"

Yeah this is him telling the league they're matching anything in that 2nd round pick value range (up to about 4.6M, like we did with Broberg).

Yep. You want to give up a 1st and a 3rd (next tier up in offer sheet compensation) to sign him, go for it, that's about what established goalies return in a trade.

[dhsux]

Per Korac:
Armstrong: "I'm very comfortable we can match any offer if we choose to match it. It won't be we didn't match it because we couldn't afford it. It's we didn't match it because we though the value we were getting back was better. That value would have to start with a 1st rd pick."

Translation: "Come at me, bro!!!"

Yeah this is him telling the league they're matching anything in that 2nd round pick value range (up to about 4.6M, like we did with Broberg).

Wow

Man he's showing his hand to the guys across the table.

I'm a bit surprised at that.