3dender wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 08:48 amAgree... as good a hitter as he is this year he's not elite bc he doesn't have the power (yet?), and he's only worth 1.5 WAR. Maybe as a DH he can push that to 2.5-3 WAR.
IMO he has played himself into one of the team's best trade chips, and they should sell high on him. His hitting skills are redundant with Donovan and Nootbaar, and he doesn't have Gorman's power.
Yea, if the guy had some power I'd be higher on him, but you're right. His skill set is more in like with what I'd like to see from a slick fielder and/or a guy who can run a little bit. But for a guy who needs to be at 1B or DH, that's typically a position where you want more of a power hitter.
Credit to Burleson for doing what he's doing, but he's gotta hit for more power.
24 home runs in 154 games at AAA. 21 home runs in 152 games with the Cards last season. 16 home runs in 119 games so far this season.
How many do you want him to hit?
If he's at first minimum 25-30. Cards don't have that player though
Pretty much this. If he's a starting 1B or DH, he needs to hit for a lot more power than 20 HRs per season, especially given his lack of walks. He's a player with great bat to ball skills unfortunately that skill is stuck in the body of a player that has to play a corner spot (and ideally 1B or DH) which requires a higher baseline of hitting performance. Alec is going to struggle to exceed that baseline without hitting for more power (or again, walking more). If we had some stars up the middle that could ease the burden on corner players he might be able to be a 1B hitting 6th in the lineup as a 125-130 wRC+ hitter with moderate power, but we don't have that right now. As is, he's ideally a part time player, or rather role player, on a really good team.
"As is, he's ideally a part time player, or rather role player, on a really good team". You are reaching there. Burleson's bat would play regularly for any current team.
Role player, who is limited to 1B or DH ideally, or corner OF on a very limited basis. Sure most teams could use a player with a 124 wRC+ in one of those spots, but they aren't a cornerstone player (i.e. hitting 2nd, 3rd, or 4th), they are a role player that ideally hits 5th or even 6th on a really good team.
What top team would Burleson be a "core player" for? Role players and part time players (especially LH ones) play regularly, which is what I was saying. I'm not even sure we are disagreeing. He's a solid player, but not a star.
He's been slightly below average before this season. But he's getting better each year. I'd love to think that trend continues but his walk rate suggests it won't.
Hope he proves me wrong.
As i showed in an earlier post, the trend is a bit overblown. His expected stats don't improve much. his underlying "skill" stats (BB%, K%, ISO) don't vary that much year to year. He had poor BABIP luck the first two years, to varying degrees, and now he's about league average and his overall batting line reflects that. I guess depending on how much you think year to year fluctuations in BABIP represent skill changes vs. random variation (I am very much in the latter's camp) you could buy into the improvement theory.
His batted ball profile has improved a bit this year (more power, higher Barrel%) and I'm sure that is impacting his BABIP a bit too. Do we think he should have been a .260-.275 BABIP hitter prior to this year? I'm not sure I buy that, and we don't have a large enough sample to ever answer that definitively anyway.
The low walk rate and lack of power (and lack of BABIP depending on how much you think that's a skill, JD an Goldy sustained it by hammering the ball) really limit his ceiling as a hitter. One or both will have to improve significantly for Burleson to improve significantly beyond what he is now.
Yeah, Burly is probably about at his peak, but who knows. We've seen stranger things than Burley hitting 40 home runs.
I think Naylor is Burleson's top age comp on Baseball-Reference. His top comps overall are a bunch of players I've never heard of, which is saying a lot.
D am n, nailed that one!
He just reminds me of Naylor, even in body build.
Naylor broke out in his age 27 season (31 HR/108 RBI), maybe Burly explodes next year too!
This is rough, but to me, Burleson runs a spectrum between Allen Craig and Matt Adams. Both players walked little.
Allen Craig:
In his three prime years, his BA was .315, .307, .315. IMO, AB needs to get that BA around that to really be close to a star. Because it won't happen from a walk rate. A .310 BA could put his OBP at .360 and OPS at .825. That's good.
Or he could be like Adams:
Struggling to get above .800 OPS most of his career due to the low walk rate and average-to-below-average batting average.
ecleme22 wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 14:19 pm
This is rough, but to me, Burleson runs a spectrum between Allen Craig and Matt Adams. Both players walked little.
Allen Craig:
In his three prime years, his BA was .315, .307, .315. IMO, AB needs to get that BA around that to really be close to a star. Because it won't happen from a walk rate. A .310 BA could put his OBP at .360 and OPS at .825. That's good.
Or he could be like Adams:
Struggling to get above .800 OPS most of his career due to the low walk rate and average-to-below-average batting average.
He's always had more than a passing resemblance to Matt Adams, not only in athleticism and defensive deficiency but down to the numbers they had at the exact same age at AA.
Adams got to his OPS total differently, with more Ks and more power, but they have pretty similar OPS and OPS+ through age 26. Adams wasn't ultimately able to make enough contact to tap into his power. Burly has the opposite problem almost of making too much contact. Can he be more selective to increase his OBP, or to be able to unload more on meatballs? Time will tell but I kinda doubt it.
dugoutrex wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 11:46 am
lots on here think a walk isn't the same as a hit
I don't think anybody on here thinks a walk is as good as a hit (except in very specific circumstances). But some on here seem to overlook the fact that a walk is much better than an out, and walking more often than not is a good thing as those other at bats are Ks or balls in play which are converted to outs 65-70% of the time.
That's a really good comp. Naylor even looks like Burleson.
It's a much better comparison than the misguided one to Berkman.
Lance's age 23 to 26 stats were: .304/.406/.578/.984 145 wRC+ 101 HRs, 336 RBI and an All-Star in years 3 and 4.
That's a really good comp. Naylor even looks like Burleson.
It's a much better comparison than the misguided one to Berkman.
Lance's age 23 to 26 stats were: .304/.406/.578/.984 145 wRC+ 101 HRs, 336 RBI and an All-Star in years 3 and 4.
Thx Co
Yea, I never got the Berkman comp since he was a borderline Hall of Fame hitter while Burly is simply a good hitter.
hugeCardfan wrote: ↑25 Aug 2025 21:47 pm
Helluva game.
The dude can hit!
Shady is pulling an all-nighter drafting and re-editing this same post and you go and steal his thunder?? Not cool man.
That's brilliant. Start the daily Burly thread before Shady can get there.
Terrific that Burleson is increasing his perceived value. It should maximize the return when they trade him this off season.
Of course, Cardinal stupidity may continue well after Mo leaves. They probably are working on a 7 year extension for Burly right now.
"They probably are working on a 7 year extension for Burly right now". If Burleson continues to produce next season. Especially, if he shows continued progress. Maybe the Cardinals should consider a five year extension taking him through his prime years.
