RamFan08NY wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 07:39 am
No doubt he is proving to be a true major league hitter. Every part of him, including physique, continues to remind me of Burkman. Always puts the bat on the ball, can go with the pitch, and showing decent power.
I've been calling him Baby Berkman since last year. If he can get into that 30 homer territory, he could be Burley Berkman. Breath of fresh air, in a league full of .230 hitters.
RamFan08NY wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 07:39 am
No doubt he is proving to be a true major league hitter. Every part of him, including physique, continues to remind me of Burkman. Always puts the bat on the ball, can go with the pitch, and showing decent power.
I've been calling him Baby Berkman since last year. If he can get into that 30 homer territory, he could be Burley Berkman. Breath of fresh air, in a league full of .230 hitters.
Really shows you how much BA is worth when he still only has 1.5 WAR as a .300 hitter.
WAR isn't a real stat. It's a made up metric, devised by people that claim batting average is meaningless.
Of course, it doesn't value BA. It was designed to ignore it.
First, you're wrong - WAR uses batting average by incorporating it into the "Batting Runs" component of its calculation.
Second, if you don't like WAR, what stats do you use to gauge the overall value of a player = hitting, fielding, and running, and even something for positional value*? (Please don't say batting average.)
The last I heard, the teams that score the most runs in a game wins, so how do you measure how well a player contributes to scoring or preventing runs?
It's easy to criticize, hard to be thoughtful.
* If you value a catcher, SS or CF the same as other positions, it's a dumb comparison for value to the team)?
I guess I'm old time. I value a player by the stats you that you can see day in, day out. Batting avg, and RBI is what wins games. All of the different elements of the WAR trilogy are basically "what if" equations.
Give me a player that consistently hits .280 +. I dont care what his WAR is. Just get him more RBI situations. Until they change the rules, games are still won by runs scored. Haven't seen one yet that has been won because team "A" had better players vs replacement players. Otherwise, no need at all to even play the game.
And it then begs me to get an answer to this question. Why would you NOT value batting average? Give me a lineup with 7 players with a batting avg .280 +, and you've got a dominant team.
Do you know OBP?
Yes. I didn't mention OBP. You get the BA, and the OBP will follow. But I will say this. If there's a runner on second, with 2 outs, I dont want my best hitter up there looking for a walk. Living here in NY, I see a lot of Met games. I listen to the fans. Juan Soto frustrates the hell out of them. He does just that. He's a dangerous hitter, but he nit picks at the plate looking for the BB. As dangerous as he is, hes not getting paid 40 mil to lead the league in walks.
Most players don’t look for walks.
And it’s not like Soto is ‘looking’ more than Burleson. Soto just has an elite batting eye and plate discipline.
Having a .280 BA is cool. But if AB had that, his a OBP would be around .330. If Nolan Gorman had a .280 BA, his OBP would be an elite .385-.390.
3dender wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 08:48 amAgree... as good a hitter as he is this year he's not elite bc he doesn't have the power (yet?), and he's only worth 1.5 WAR. Maybe as a DH he can push that to 2.5-3 WAR.
IMO he has played himself into one of the team's best trade chips, and they should sell high on him. His hitting skills are redundant with Donovan and Nootbaar, and he doesn't have Gorman's power.
Yea, if the guy had some power I'd be higher on him, but you're right. His skill set is more in like with what I'd like to see from a slick fielder and/or a guy who can run a little bit. But for a guy who needs to be at 1B or DH, that's typically a position where you want more of a power hitter.
Credit to Burleson for doing what he's doing, but he's gotta hit for more power.
24 home runs in 154 games at AAA. 21 home runs in 152 games with the Cards last season. 16 home runs in 119 games so far this season.
How many do you want him to hit?
If he's at first minimum 25-30. Cards don't have that player though
Pretty much this. If he's a starting 1B or DH, he needs to hit for a lot more power than 20 HRs per season, especially given his lack of walks. He's a player with great bat to ball skills unfortunately that skill is stuck in the body of a player that has to play a corner spot (and ideally 1B or DH) which requires a higher baseline of hitting performance. Alec is going to struggle to exceed that baseline without hitting for more power (or again, walking more). If we had some stars up the middle that could ease the burden on corner players he might be able to be a 1B hitting 6th in the lineup as a 125-130 wRC+ hitter with moderate power, but we don't have that right now. As is, he's ideally a part time player, or rather role player, on a really good team.
"As is, he's ideally a part time player, or rather role player, on a really good team". You are reaching there. Burleson's bat would play regularly for any current team.
Not as a middle of the order hitter as he is on this weaker offensive team
As he is right now Burleson is a really good 6/7 hitter in a good offense. Been saying that for a while and it hasn't changed. To be a star he either needs to add slug or on base skills. An .800 OPS isn't a star.
JohnnyMO wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 13:17 pm
As he is right now Burleson is a really good 6/7 hitter in a good offense. Been saying that for a while and it hasn't changed. To be a star he either needs to add slug or on base skills. An .800 OPS isn't a star.
It doesn't make you a star, but it will get you playing time on any MLB roster.
JohnnyMO wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 13:17 pm
As he is right now Burleson is a really good 6/7 hitter in a good offense. Been saying that for a while and it hasn't changed. To be a star he either needs to add slug or on base skills. An .800 OPS isn't a star.
It doesn't make you a star, but it will get you playing time on any MLB roster.
Right so OP is wrong and rbirules (among others) is correct.
JohnnyMO wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 13:17 pm
As he is right now Burleson is a really good 6/7 hitter in a good offense. Been saying that for a while and it hasn't changed. To be a star he either needs to add slug or on base skills. An .800 OPS isn't a star.
It doesn't make you a star, but it will get you playing time on any MLB roster.
Totally agree. He's proven he's more than a part time player at this point. But a star is stretching it pretty hard.
Rocket Scientist wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 09:50 am
Chip said last night mid game the Burleson was one of five MLB players that have hit 270+ against both left handed pitching and right handed pitching. That makes him elite in 2025 season. The guy can hit.
Then of course all the folks that said he couldn't hit lefthanders raise your hands.
Nice to see him overcome his difficulties vs LHP.
My hands up but, well............maybe we should look at a larger sample size.......say his career vs LHP:
6 HR
.235 .266 .338 .605
Don't look back, I say . Want have you done today, life of a ball player and commissioned salesmen.
12xu wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 07:59 am
He had an outstanding game last night, and I am impressed with the improvements he has made in his 3+ years in the Show.
Looking at his slash line: BA .244 - .269 - .291, OBP .301 - .314 - .341 SLG .390 - .420 - .461 and OPS .691 - .735 - .801.
This shows a great trend of steady improvement.
He does not strike out a lot, and if he can learn to take a walk a bit more often, he could become really dangerous. If he ever becomes anywhere near the hitter that the "Big Puma" was, that would be amazing.
Rocket Scientist wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 09:50 am
Chip said last night mid game the Burleson was one of five MLB players that have hit 270+ against both left handed pitching and right handed pitching. That makes him elite in 2025 season. The guy can hit.
Then of course all the folks that said he couldn't hit lefthanders raise your hands.
Nice to see him overcome his difficulties vs LHP.
My hands up but, well............maybe we should look at a larger sample size.......say his career vs LHP:
6 HR
.235 .266 .338 .605
Don't look back, I say . Want have you done today, life of a ball player and commissioned salesmen.
S. Paige:
"Don't look back, something may be gaining on you"!
I hope he keeps it RS, would make him a regular but at what position (DH, OF -2 DRS/-3 OAA, 1B is Willy C's)?
12xu wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 07:59 am
He had an outstanding game last night, and I am impressed with the improvements he has made in his 3+ years in the Show.
Looking at his slash line: BA .244 - .269 - .291, OBP .301 - .314 - .341 SLG .390 - .420 - .461 and OPS .691 - .735 - .801.
This shows a great trend of steady improvement.
He does not strike out a lot, and if he can learn to take a walk a bit more often, he could become really dangerous. If he ever becomes anywhere near the hitter that the "Big Puma" was, that would be amazing.
His walks won’t improve much.
He has to hit for a higher average.
Berkman isn’t a good comp.
Agree across the board.
JD Martinez is a better comp.
Yep, JD Martinez (during break out season, prior to being an established elite hitter) is one of Burleson's top comps. Probably due to the extreme low walk rate (6.4% BB% through age 26). But Martinez's BABIP and ISO exploded in his age 26 season. Burleson hasn't seen that happen, certainly not to the extent Martinez has.
I'm not sure Burleson couldn't walk more, but I think he needs to give pitchers a reason to stay out of the zone more against him. If his was hammering balls in the zone like Martinez did starting at age 26 he would get less strikes. If he could keep not striking out (not making contact on pitches out of the zone but instead laying off them) if and when he gives pitchers a reason to do that, then he could take a next step as a hitter. He's taken a small step that direction this year. He needs to take a big step if he ever wants to be more than just a solid corner bat.
3dender wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 08:48 amAgree... as good a hitter as he is this year he's not elite bc he doesn't have the power (yet?), and he's only worth 1.5 WAR. Maybe as a DH he can push that to 2.5-3 WAR.
IMO he has played himself into one of the team's best trade chips, and they should sell high on him. His hitting skills are redundant with Donovan and Nootbaar, and he doesn't have Gorman's power.
Yea, if the guy had some power I'd be higher on him, but you're right. His skill set is more in like with what I'd like to see from a slick fielder and/or a guy who can run a little bit. But for a guy who needs to be at 1B or DH, that's typically a position where you want more of a power hitter.
Credit to Burleson for doing what he's doing, but he's gotta hit for more power.
24 home runs in 154 games at AAA. 21 home runs in 152 games with the Cards last season. 16 home runs in 119 games so far this season.
How many do you want him to hit?
If he's at first minimum 25-30. Cards don't have that player though
Pretty much this. If he's a starting 1B or DH, he needs to hit for a lot more power than 20 HRs per season, especially given his lack of walks. He's a player with great bat to ball skills unfortunately that skill is stuck in the body of a player that has to play a corner spot (and ideally 1B or DH) which requires a higher baseline of hitting performance. Alec is going to struggle to exceed that baseline without hitting for more power (or again, walking more). If we had some stars up the middle that could ease the burden on corner players he might be able to be a 1B hitting 6th in the lineup as a 125-130 wRC+ hitter with moderate power, but we don't have that right now. As is, he's ideally a part time player, or rather role player, on a really good team.
"As is, he's ideally a part time player, or rather role player, on a really good team". You are reaching there. Burleson's bat would play regularly for any current team.
Role player, who is limited to 1B or DH ideally, or corner OF on a very limited basis. Sure most teams could use a player with a 124 wRC+ in one of those spots, but they aren't a cornerstone player (i.e. hitting 2nd, 3rd, or 4th), they are a role player that ideally hits 5th or even 6th on a really good team.
What top team would Burleson be a "core player" for? Role players and part time players (especially LH ones) play regularly, which is what I was saying. I'm not even sure we are disagreeing. He's a solid player, but not a star.
He's been slightly below average before this season. But he's getting better each year. I'd love to think that trend continues but his walk rate suggests it won't.
3dender wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 08:48 amAgree... as good a hitter as he is this year he's not elite bc he doesn't have the power (yet?), and he's only worth 1.5 WAR. Maybe as a DH he can push that to 2.5-3 WAR.
IMO he has played himself into one of the team's best trade chips, and they should sell high on him. His hitting skills are redundant with Donovan and Nootbaar, and he doesn't have Gorman's power.
Yea, if the guy had some power I'd be higher on him, but you're right. His skill set is more in like with what I'd like to see from a slick fielder and/or a guy who can run a little bit. But for a guy who needs to be at 1B or DH, that's typically a position where you want more of a power hitter.
Credit to Burleson for doing what he's doing, but he's gotta hit for more power.
24 home runs in 154 games at AAA. 21 home runs in 152 games with the Cards last season. 16 home runs in 119 games so far this season.
How many do you want him to hit?
If he's at first minimum 25-30. Cards don't have that player though
Pretty much this. If he's a starting 1B or DH, he needs to hit for a lot more power than 20 HRs per season, especially given his lack of walks. He's a player with great bat to ball skills unfortunately that skill is stuck in the body of a player that has to play a corner spot (and ideally 1B or DH) which requires a higher baseline of hitting performance. Alec is going to struggle to exceed that baseline without hitting for more power (or again, walking more). If we had some stars up the middle that could ease the burden on corner players he might be able to be a 1B hitting 6th in the lineup as a 125-130 wRC+ hitter with moderate power, but we don't have that right now. As is, he's ideally a part time player, or rather role player, on a really good team.
"As is, he's ideally a part time player, or rather role player, on a really good team". You are reaching there. Burleson's bat would play regularly for any current team.
Role player, who is limited to 1B or DH ideally, or corner OF on a very limited basis. Sure most teams could use a player with a 124 wRC+ in one of those spots, but they aren't a cornerstone player (i.e. hitting 2nd, 3rd, or 4th), they are a role player that ideally hits 5th or even 6th on a really good team.
What top team would Burleson be a "core player" for? Role players and part time players (especially LH ones) play regularly, which is what I was saying. I'm not even sure we are disagreeing. He's a solid player, but not a star.
He's been slightly below average before this season. But he's getting better each year. I'd love to think that trend continues but his walk rate suggests it won't.
Hope he proves me wrong.
As i showed in an earlier post, the trend is a bit overblown. His expected stats don't improve much. his underlying "skill" stats (BB%, K%, ISO) don't vary that much year to year. He had poor BABIP luck the first two years, to varying degrees, and now he's about league average and his overall batting line reflects that. I guess depending on how much you think year to year fluctuations in BABIP represent skill changes vs. random variation (I am very much in the latter's camp) you could buy into the improvement theory.
His batted ball profile has improved a bit this year (more power, higher Barrel%) and I'm sure that is impacting his BABIP a bit too. Do we think he should have been a .260-.275 BABIP hitter prior to this year? I'm not sure I buy that, and we don't have a large enough sample to ever answer that definitively anyway.
The low walk rate and lack of power (and lack of BABIP depending on how much you think that's a skill, JD an Goldy sustained it by hammering the ball) really limit his ceiling as a hitter. One or both will have to improve significantly for Burleson to improve significantly beyond what he is now.
12xu wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 07:59 am
He had an outstanding game last night, and I am impressed with the improvements he has made in his 3+ years in the Show.
Looking at his slash line: BA .244 - .269 - .291, OBP .301 - .314 - .341 SLG .390 - .420 - .461 and OPS .691 - .735 - .801.
This shows a great trend of steady improvement.
He does not strike out a lot, and if he can learn to take a walk a bit more often, he could become really dangerous. If he ever becomes anywhere near the hitter that the "Big Puma" was, that would be amazing.
His walks won’t improve much.
He has to hit for a higher average.
Berkman isn’t a good comp.
Agree across the board.
JD Martinez is a better comp.
Yep, JD Martinez (during break out season, prior to being an established elite hitter) is one of Burleson's top comps. Probably due to the extreme low walk rate (6.4% BB% through age 26). But Martinez's BABIP and ISO exploded in his age 26 season. Burleson hasn't seen that happen, certainly not to the extent Martinez has.
I'm not sure Burleson couldn't walk more, but I think he needs to give pitchers a reason to stay out of the zone more against him. If his was hammering balls in the zone like Martinez did starting at age 26 he would get less strikes. If he could keep not striking out (not making contact on pitches out of the zone but instead laying off them) if and when he gives pitchers a reason to do that, then he could take a next step as a hitter. He's taken a small step that direction this year. He needs to take a big step if he ever wants to be more than just a solid corner bat.
Burleson's BABIP hasn't exploded, but it has improved each season. If he keeps this up (and I hope he can) people will be comparing him to Lance Berkman one day!!!
I think Naylor is Burleson's top age comp on Baseball-Reference. His top comps overall are a bunch of players I've never heard of, which is saying a lot.
Want have you done today, life of a ball player and commissioned salesmen.