Burleson is a star

[hugeCardfan]

Helluva game.

The dude can hit!

[CorneliusWolfe]

Helluva game.

The dude can hit!

Shady is pulling an all-nighter drafting and re-editing this same post and you go and steal his thunder?? Not cool man.

[RamFan08NY]

No doubt he is proving to be a true major league hitter. Every part of him, including physique, continues to remind me of Burkman. Always puts the bat on the ball, can go with the pitch, and showing decent power.

[12xu]

He had an outstanding game last night, and I am impressed with the improvements he has made in his 3+ years in the Show.
Looking at his slash line: BA .244 - .269 - .291, OBP .301 - .314 - .341 SLG .390 - .420 - .461 and OPS .691 - .735 - .801.
This shows a great trend of steady improvement.

He does not strike out a lot, and if he can learn to take a walk a bit more often, he could become really dangerous. If he ever becomes anywhere near the hitter that the "Big Puma" was, that would be amazing.

[ecleme22]

He had an outstanding game last night, and I am impressed with the improvements he has made in his 3+ years in the Show.
Looking at his slash line: BA .244 - .269 - .291, OBP .301 - .314 - .341 SLG .390 - .420 - .461 and OPS .691 - .735 - .801.
This shows a great trend of steady improvement.

He does not strike out a lot, and if he can learn to take a walk a bit more often, he could become really dangerous. If he ever becomes anywhere near the hitter that the "Big Puma" was, that would be amazing.

His walks won’t improve much.

He has to hit for a higher average.

Berkman isn’t a good comp.

[swatski]

Reminds me of a young Schwarber. Needs to get in better shape.

[moose-and-squirrel]

Reminds me of a young Schwarber. Needs to get in better shape.

this is a tired angle.. dude is in better shape every year and is hardly fat. he's just a big dude

schwarber, otoh, is hardly svelte

[ecleme22]

Reminds me of a young Schwarber. Needs to get in better shape.

Come on. No he's not.

[icon]

Reminds me of a young Schwarber. Needs to get in better shape.

Come on. No he's not.

Yeah, there is no comparison in the power or the walk rate of the two.

[rbirules]

Can we pump the brakes on the hyperbole and just enjoy Burleson for what he is, and likely always has been? He's an above average hitter (124 wRC+), and looking at his "expected stats" the last few years this was likely always his level (120-130 wRC+). Unfortunately he pretty much has to hit at this level to be an average starter, but has a long way to go to reach "star" level (like the Berkman comp, or the Kruk comp I've seen thrown around).

Let's dig into Burleson's stats.

As has been mentioned in the OP his "surface level" stats have improved each year, but the underlying metrics that drive those haven't changed much (or at least the ones that are most reliable in partial season sample sizes).

Yearly stats:
2023 - .244/.300/.390/.691, 88 wRC+, 6.6% BB%, 13.0% K%, .146 ISO, .261 BABIP
2024 - .269/.314/.420/.735, 106 wRC+, 5.9% BB%, 12.8% K%, .152 ISO, .276 BABIP
2025 - .291/.341/.461/.802, 124 wRC+, 7.2% BB%, 13.3% K%, .169 ISO, .306 BABIP

Walk rate is 6.6% for his career, he's been at that level give or take 0.5% each of the last three years. Strike out rate is 13.1% for his career, he's been at that level give or take 0.3% each of the last three years. So he's going to walk very little and strike out very little, at this point I don't think that's likely to change, much. So he's very dependent on what happens when the balls put in play (because he doesn't generate much value when it's not, i.e. low walk rate).

His ISO is trending in the right direction (110 ISO+ in 2025) and his BABIP appears to have finally gotten on the positive side of league average (105 BABIP+ in 2025). But I'm not sure Burleson is the body type of a player that runs a higher than average BABIP if he's not absolutely hammering the ball (like Goldschmidt). If he has a normal batted ball profile he's beating out less ground balls than the average major leaguer.

Can we expect his power numbers to grow even more?

HR/FB%:
2023 - 8.2%
2024 - 12.0%
2025 - 10.3%
Total - 10.5%

Stop me if you've heard this before . . . his career rate is 10.5% and each year he's been within about 2% of that number, with no consistent positive trend line.

He is however hitting the ball in the air more 43.3% FB% compared to 36.7% in 2023-2024. The statcast metrics support this as well.

LA:
2023 - 12.4
2024 - 13.6
2025 - 16.1
Total - 13.8

He is hitting the ball slightly harder . . .

Hard hit%:
2023 - 39.9%
2024 - 41.0%
2025 - 42.7%
Total - 41.6%

There is a slight positive trend there, but the increase in LA is what is really helping him . . .

Barrel%:
2023 - 5.8%
2024 - 6.5%
2025 - 9.0%
Total - 7.2%

He's now hitting those hard hit balls at better elevations, so maybe there's some hope that he has some untapped power potential still at age 26 (soon to be 27).

He could obviously get some BABIP luck in a season (.330-.340 range) and maybe bump that batting line up to a 130-140 wRC+ level, but I don't see that happening in a sustainable manner unless he magically learns to start walking more at age 27 (seems unlikely).

A 125-130 wRC+ hitter who isn't a particularly great fielder at corner positions is a solid player, but far from a star.

Berkman was putting up wRC+ of 164, 149, 139, 161, 144, 158, 131, 156, 138 from age 25 through his age 33 season. His floor was higher than Burleson's current career year. He put up four straight seasons with an fWAR between 6 and 7 then had two more 6+ seasons in the next four years (including a 7.7 fWAR season at age 32) with the down years being 2.6 and 2.8 fWAR. That is what a star corner bat looks like, and Burleson isn't close to that. Berkman walked more than he struck out in his mid to late 20s (15.9% BB% vs. 15.8% K%). I don't see Burleson doubling his walk rate, that's usually pretty well developed at this point.

[Ronnie Dobbs]

Look, I'm not going to lie, I've been pretty down on Burleson overall, so maybe I'm biased. But a star?? No, sorry.

Pretty good? Sure. Definitely needs to be moved to 1B or DH because his defense is so bad it's dragging his overall value as a player down. But a 125 wRC+ is pretty (bleep) good. Again, not star level, but you'll definitely take that from him. You'd like to see him hit for more power, or the team to bring in some players around him who can hit for power, but he is playing much better than I thought he would. He's holding his own against lefties as well.

So, yea, good "prove it" season for Burleson, in my opinion. Coming from a guy who wasn't high on him, to say the least.

[3dender]

Reminds me of a young Schwarber. Needs to get in better shape.

this is a tired angle.. dude is in better shape every year and is hardly fat. he's just a big dude

schwarber, otoh, is hardly svelte

*That's* the reason you think they're not similar? Cause Burleson is skinnier than Schwarber?

Besides that it's a ridiculous point of difference (the real difference is Schwarber's elite power and BB rate), it's not even correct. Have you seen Schwarber in the last few years? The guy is like a pillar of muscle. I bet he weighs 20-30 lbs. more than Burleson just bc he has muscle and not fat.

[3dender]

Look, I'm not going to lie, I've been pretty down on Burleson overall, so maybe I'm biased. But a star?? No, sorry.

Pretty good? Sure. Definitely needs to be moved to 1B or DH because his defense is so bad it's dragging his overall value as a player down. But a 125 wRC+ is pretty (drat) good. Again, not star level, but you'll definitely take that from him. You'd like to see him hit for more power, or the team to bring in some players around him who can hit for power, but he is playing much better than I thought he would. He's holding his own against lefties as well.

So, yea, good "prove it" season for Burleson, in my opinion. Coming from a guy who wasn't high on him, to say the least.

Agree... as good a hitter as he is this year he's not elite bc he doesn't have the power (yet?), and he's only worth 1.5 WAR. Maybe as a DH he can push that to 2.5-3 WAR.

IMO he has played himself into one of the team's best trade chips, and they should sell high on him. His hitting skills are redundant with Donovan and Nootbaar, and he doesn't have Gorman's power.

[Cusecards]

Give Burleson a world of credit. Not the greatest natural athlete but he is getting it done!
The hitting stands out but he is also better defensively then he is given credit for.
Last year he had a strong first half then tailed off noticeably after the break.
This year he may be putting it all together??
Bloom has a lot to sort through this offseason.
Burly> 1B? Corner OF? DH?
1B- blocked now by WC
DH- competing with Gorman/Herrera
OF- Donovan/Noot/Walker/Church/Herrera etc

He could also get traded in a package and while I’m not stumping for it you have to give to get!
To land an impact SP a package of??:
*Catching prospect
*LH bat
*Pitching prospect

To get what they want it’s very likely they have to deal a Donovan/Burleson/Herrera.

[rockondlouie]

Reminds me of a young Schwarber. Needs to get in better shape.

Blue Font, right?

And for the Berkman comp............C'MON Man.

In no way, shape or form is Bumbles anywhere near Berkman's class as a hitter.

[Lloyd Braun]

No doubt he is proving to be a true major league hitter. Every part of him, including physique, continues to remind me of Burkman. Always puts the bat on the ball, can go with the pitch, and showing decent power.

I've been calling him Baby Berkman since last year. If he can get into that 30 homer territory, he could be Burley Berkman. Breath of fresh air, in a league full of .230 hitters.