Loser Mentality

[Cardinals4Life]

I'll add - the "loser mentality" is, if anything, whining for ownership to give you the pablum of a couple of "stars," a couple of "names" you recognize, even when you should know this team is nowhere good enough to really compete with a couple of more "names."

Settling for being pacified by just having a couple more "names" on the back of jerseys instead of demanding the implementation of a real plan to eventually be able to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, Padres, etc. is the "loser mentality." That's really what ownership has been selling fans on for the last several years to get to this point.

You sure seem to think you’ve got it all figured out and us “Whiners” are clueless! Are you really just another account for Melville?
Hope you enjoy the next 3+ years of futility!
In my opinion this team is only 3 or 4 players away from being able to compete. I guess you have no confidence in any of our current players, so to replace the whole team will take several years!

"Only" four $25 million or $30 million AAV players? Only $100 to $120 million a year?

Is that all?

Yes, that is all. Cards can afford to carry some players of this magnitude. We have a team full of YOUR "cost-controlled" young players. You are going to have to pay some pillars.

They can't afford four $25 to $30 million players AND pay for a good enough rest of the roster to support them unless they have even more young, cost controlled players than I project that they need.

They don't have anywhere close to the depth and quality of young cost controlled players to make it work right now.

Having Gorman at -0.2 fWAR, Walker at -1.2 fWAR, Ryan Fernandez, etc. are not contributing, as of now at least, to the depth and quality of young cost controlled players they need.

Sure they can. Humor me. Give me youe estimated payroll for the following:

Rotation: Valdez, Gray, Acquired P via trade (assume pre-arb), Liberatore, McGreevy.

Position Players: Contreras, Wetherholt, Winn, Eugenio Suarez, Scott, Burleson, Cody Bellinger, Herrera, Crooks, Saggese, Church, Torres, Gorman

Pen: Phil Maton, Romero, O'Brien, Graceffo, Svanson, Leahy, Kyle Finnegan, another pre-arb guy.

Big $ guys: Valdez, Gray, Bellinger, Suarez, Contreras

This is just an example, but can you give me the payroll for this roster?

[Cardinals4Life]

Allow me to vent a little.....

When did the St. Louis Cardinals get such a loser mentality? When did it become acceptable for MLB baseball in St. Louis to look like AAA ball? When did it become okay for the Cardinals to not have any star power? When did it become okay for ownership to strip payroll down to nothing? When did the fans start accepting the idea that tanking (not even trying to compete) is okay? When did fans become in favor of collecting prospects instead of MLB players? When dod it become okay to have Oliver Marmol as a MLB manager?

Ok, I feel a little better.....maybe.

Tired of the Loser Mentality with the Cards and tired of reading the Loser Mentality nonsense I read on here.

A few of us pointed out the issues that were forming five years ago. We were called whiney and entitled by many.

We are now in a place where they destroyed the organization. For those of us who look at the current state of the organization, we can see it has to be a long painful rebuild.

That doesn’t mean we are accepting where we are. The empty stadium shows that.

It’s now on Bloom and ownership to fix this. Time will tell if it’s being done correctly. There is no path to quick fix the damage.

What would you be looking to do to fix this?

I would go get a few pieces in free agency/via trade. Add them to the cost-controlled young guys we have currently (who, btw, are solid complimentary pieces).

2 SPs
2 Bats
1 or 2 BP arms

Examples:
Valdez (FA), Ragans (Trade)
Valdez, Gray, Ragans, Liberatore, McGreevy

Looks formidable.

Suarez (FA), Tatis Jr. (Trade)

Wetherholt 2B
Herrera C
Tatis Jr. RF
Suarez 3B
Contreras 1B
Burleson LF
Winn SS
Gorman DH
Scott II CF

Looks formidable.

Maton (FA), Helsely (FA), Romero, O'Brien, Svanson, Graceffo, Leahy

Obviously just examples. Names could change. But this is a solution. They just don't want to do what it takes to makenit happen.

They don’t have the pieces to get Tatis and I am not convinced he won’t seriously regress over the next few years. They don’t have the resources to win a bidding war on Valdez.

Maton and Helsley are doable. Suarez is doable, but they won’t.

Just examples....but yes, they do have the resources to get Valdez, if they wanted to.
And agree, they won't do Suarez either.

Where are the resources coming from to outbid the large market teams for a marquee free agent?

Identify the players you want and go get them. Seems like we will have 80-100M in payroll open. That's a start. Lol

[Quincy Varnish]

Sure they can. Humor me. Give me youe estimated payroll for the following:

Rotation: Valdez, Gray, Acquired P via trade (assume pre-arb), Liberatore, McGreevy.

Position Players: Contreras, Wetherholt, Winn, Eugenio Suarez, Scott, Burleson, Cody Bellinger, Herrera, Crooks, Saggese, Church, Torres, Gorman

Pen: Phil Maton, Romero, O'Brien, Graceffo, Svanson, Leahy, Kyle Finnegan, another pre-arb guy.

Big $ guys: Valdez, Gray, Bellinger, Suarez, Contreras

This is just an example, but can you give me the payroll for this roster?

Where is Arenado and how much are you paying him to play someplace else?

[mattmitchl44]

Sure they can. Humor me. Give me youe estimated payroll for the following:

Rotation: Valdez, Gray, Acquired P via trade (assume pre-arb), Liberatore, McGreevy.

Position Players: Contreras, Wetherholt, Winn, Eugenio Suarez, Scott, Burleson, Cody Bellinger, Herrera, Crooks, Saggese, Church, Torres, Gorman

Pen: Phil Maton, Romero, O'Brien, Graceffo, Svanson, Leahy, Kyle Finnegan, another pre-arb guy.

Big $ guys: Valdez, Gray, Bellinger, Suarez, Contreras

This is just an example, but can you give me the payroll for this roster?

I'll hit the major contributors at least.

$ are either actual or est. from FG or Cot's; fWAR est. and from FG models (and I'll give you the highest model proj. fWAR)

Gray - $35 million, 4.0 fWAR
Valdez - $28 million, 3.7 fWAR
Liberatore - $2.5 million, 1.3 fWAR
McGreevy - $800K, 1.6 fWAR

Contreras - $18 million, 1.9 fWAR
Suarez - $20 million, 2.7 fWAR
Bellinger - $27 million, 3.0 fWAR
Herrera - $800K, 3.0 fWAR
Winn - $800K, 3.6 fWAR
Burleson - $2.5 million, 2.2 fWAR
Scott - $800K, 1.3 fWAR
Crooks/Pages - $1.6 million, 2.0 fWAR

Entire bullpen (8) - $20 million (at least, with Maton $5M, Finnegan $7M, Romero $3.5M, etc.), 3.5 fWAR (ML average last year)

So that's $158.2+ million (not to mention ~$15 million sent with Arenado, probably - so really more like $173.2+ million) and 33.8 fWAR without figuring in:

Three bench players (Saggese, Gorman, Torres), Wetherholt, and your unnamed SP acquired from trade.

You need 42 fWAR to be a team with even 90 win talent, so you are 8+ fWAR short. And you probably really want at least 10+ fWAR more (a 92 win talent team) if you are going to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc.

The bench isn't going to give you but 1 or 2, your unnamed SP (if pre-ARB) is likely to be still developing and isn't likely to be more than ~2 fWAR.

So maybe you've got 38 fWAR (an 86 win team) without Wetherholt. And, again, that's based on the most favorable FG model proj. of what fWAR ALL of those guys are going to produce. You need Wetherholt to be an All-Star level player from Day 1 to just get to 90 wins.

And, if he ISN'T an immediate wunderkind, you're stuck with likely declining assets (Valdez, Suarez, Bellinger, etc.) that you're committed to paying A LOT of money to in 2027, 2028, 2029, etc.

Basically you are just repeating the same roll of the dice the Cardinals made with Goldschmidt-Arenado, hoping to win something before they fall off the table without having the supporting cast now to do so.

[sikeston bulldog2]

Sure they can. Humor me. Give me youe estimated payroll for the following:

Rotation: Valdez, Gray, Acquired P via trade (assume pre-arb), Liberatore, McGreevy.

Position Players: Contreras, Wetherholt, Winn, Eugenio Suarez, Scott, Burleson, Cody Bellinger, Herrera, Crooks, Saggese, Church, Torres, Gorman

Pen: Phil Maton, Romero, O'Brien, Graceffo, Svanson, Leahy, Kyle Finnegan, another pre-arb guy.

Big $ guys: Valdez, Gray, Bellinger, Suarez, Contreras

This is just an example, but can you give me the payroll for this roster?

I'll hit the major contributors at least.

$ are either actual or est. from FG or Cot's; fWAR est. and from FG models (and I'll give you the highest model proj. fWAR)

Gray - $35 million, 4.0 fWAR
Valdez - $28 million, 3.7 fWAR
Liberatore - $2.5 million, 1.3 fWAR
McGreevy - $800K, 1.6 fWAR

Contreras - $18 million, 1.9 fWAR
Suarez - $20 million, 2.7 fWAR
Bellinger - $27 million, 3.0 fWAR
Herrera - $800K, 3.0 fWAR
Winn - $800K, 3.6 fWAR
Burleson - $2.5 million, 2.2 fWAR
Scott - $800K, 1.3 fWAR
Crooks/Pages - $1.6 million, 2.0 fWAR

Entire bullpen (8) - $20 million (at least, with Maton $5M, Finnegan $7M, Romero $3.5M, etc.), 3.5 fWAR (ML average last year)

So that's $158.2+ million (not to mention ~$15 million sent with Arenado, probably - so really more like $173.2+ million) and 33.8 fWAR without figuring in:

Three bench players (Saggese, Gorman, Torres), Wetherholt, and your unnamed SP acquired from trade.

You need 42 fWAR to be a team with even 90 win talent, so you are 8+ fWAR short. And you probably really want at least 10+ fWAR more (a 92 win talent team) if you are going to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc.

The bench isn't going to give you but 1 or 2, your unnamed SP (if pre-ARB) is likely to be still developing and isn't likely to be more than ~2 fWAR.

So maybe you've got 38 fWAR (an 86 win team) without Wetherholt. And, again, that's based on the most favorable FG model proj. of what fWAR all of those guys are going to produce. You need Wetherholt to be an All-Star level player from Day 1 to just get to 90 wins.

And, if he ISN'T an immediate wunderkind, you're stuck with likely declining assets (Valdez, Suarez, Bellinger, etc.) that you're committed to paying A LOT of money to in 2027, 2028, 2029, etc.

Your last paragraph. Likely declining assets. Aren’t they likely declining assets even if JJ is great.

[mattmitchl44]

Sure they can. Humor me. Give me youe estimated payroll for the following:

Rotation: Valdez, Gray, Acquired P via trade (assume pre-arb), Liberatore, McGreevy.

Position Players: Contreras, Wetherholt, Winn, Eugenio Suarez, Scott, Burleson, Cody Bellinger, Herrera, Crooks, Saggese, Church, Torres, Gorman

Pen: Phil Maton, Romero, O'Brien, Graceffo, Svanson, Leahy, Kyle Finnegan, another pre-arb guy.

Big $ guys: Valdez, Gray, Bellinger, Suarez, Contreras

This is just an example, but can you give me the payroll for this roster?

I'll hit the major contributors at least.

$ are either actual or est. from FG or Cot's; fWAR est. and from FG models (and I'll give you the highest model proj. fWAR)

Gray - $35 million, 4.0 fWAR
Valdez - $28 million, 3.7 fWAR
Liberatore - $2.5 million, 1.3 fWAR
McGreevy - $800K, 1.6 fWAR

Contreras - $18 million, 1.9 fWAR
Suarez - $20 million, 2.7 fWAR
Bellinger - $27 million, 3.0 fWAR
Herrera - $800K, 3.0 fWAR
Winn - $800K, 3.6 fWAR
Burleson - $2.5 million, 2.2 fWAR
Scott - $800K, 1.3 fWAR
Crooks/Pages - $1.6 million, 2.0 fWAR

Entire bullpen (8) - $20 million (at least, with Maton $5M, Finnegan $7M, Romero $3.5M, etc.), 3.5 fWAR (ML average last year)

So that's $158.2+ million (not to mention ~$15 million sent with Arenado, probably - so really more like $173.2+ million) and 33.8 fWAR without figuring in:

Three bench players (Saggese, Gorman, Torres), Wetherholt, and your unnamed SP acquired from trade.

You need 42 fWAR to be a team with even 90 win talent, so you are 8+ fWAR short. And you probably really want at least 10+ fWAR more (a 92 win talent team) if you are going to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc.

The bench isn't going to give you but 1 or 2, your unnamed SP (if pre-ARB) is likely to be still developing and isn't likely to be more than ~2 fWAR.

So maybe you've got 38 fWAR (an 86 win team) without Wetherholt. And, again, that's based on the most favorable FG model proj. of what fWAR all of those guys are going to produce. You need Wetherholt to be an All-Star level player from Day 1 to just get to 90 wins.

And, if he ISN'T an immediate wunderkind, you're stuck with likely declining assets (Valdez, Suarez, Bellinger, etc.) that you're committed to paying A LOT of money to in 2027, 2028, 2029, etc.

Your last paragraph. Likely declining assets. Aren’t they likely declining assets even if JJ is great.

Yes, when you sign a 32 yr. old Valdez or a 34 yr. old Suarez, it's like buying a new car and driving it off the lot - you have to expect they start to depreciate from the moment you sign the contract because that's just likely where they are in their career arc.

He's basically just assembling the same team the Cardinals have assembled for the last decade - one at its best that is just good enough to get into the playoffs and get run over in the first round. And he's locking the team into that ceiling until they can get out from under the Valdez, Suarez, Bellinger contracts at some point in the future.

[sikeston bulldog2]

Sure they can. Humor me. Give me youe estimated payroll for the following:

Rotation: Valdez, Gray, Acquired P via trade (assume pre-arb), Liberatore, McGreevy.

Position Players: Contreras, Wetherholt, Winn, Eugenio Suarez, Scott, Burleson, Cody Bellinger, Herrera, Crooks, Saggese, Church, Torres, Gorman

Pen: Phil Maton, Romero, O'Brien, Graceffo, Svanson, Leahy, Kyle Finnegan, another pre-arb guy.

Big $ guys: Valdez, Gray, Bellinger, Suarez, Contreras

This is just an example, but can you give me the payroll for this roster?

I'll hit the major contributors at least.

$ are either actual or est. from FG or Cot's; fWAR est. and from FG models (and I'll give you the highest model proj. fWAR)

Gray - $35 million, 4.0 fWAR
Valdez - $28 million, 3.7 fWAR
Liberatore - $2.5 million, 1.3 fWAR
McGreevy - $800K, 1.6 fWAR

Contreras - $18 million, 1.9 fWAR
Suarez - $20 million, 2.7 fWAR
Bellinger - $27 million, 3.0 fWAR
Herrera - $800K, 3.0 fWAR
Winn - $800K, 3.6 fWAR
Burleson - $2.5 million, 2.2 fWAR
Scott - $800K, 1.3 fWAR
Crooks/Pages - $1.6 million, 2.0 fWAR

Entire bullpen (8) - $20 million (at least, with Maton $5M, Finnegan $7M, Romero $3.5M, etc.), 3.5 fWAR (ML average last year)

So that's $158.2+ million (not to mention ~$15 million sent with Arenado, probably - so really more like $173.2+ million) and 33.8 fWAR without figuring in:

Three bench players (Saggese, Gorman, Torres), Wetherholt, and your unnamed SP acquired from trade.

You need 42 fWAR to be a team with even 90 win talent, so you are 8+ fWAR short. And you probably really want at least 10+ fWAR more (a 92 win talent team) if you are going to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc.

The bench isn't going to give you but 1 or 2, your unnamed SP (if pre-ARB) is likely to be still developing and isn't likely to be more than ~2 fWAR.

So maybe you've got 38 fWAR (an 86 win team) without Wetherholt. And, again, that's based on the most favorable FG model proj. of what fWAR all of those guys are going to produce. You need Wetherholt to be an All-Star level player from Day 1 to just get to 90 wins.

And, if he ISN'T an immediate wunderkind, you're stuck with likely declining assets (Valdez, Suarez, Bellinger, etc.) that you're committed to paying A LOT of money to in 2027, 2028, 2029, etc.

Your last paragraph. Likely declining assets. Aren’t they likely declining assets even if JJ is great.

Yes, when you sign a 32 yr. old Valdez or a 34 yr. old Suarez, it's like buying a new car and driving it off the lot - you have to expect they start to depreciate from the moment you sign the contract because that's just likely where they are in their career arc.

He's basically just assembling the same team the Cardinals have assembled for the last decade - one at its best that is just good enough to get into the playoffs and get run over in the first round. And he's locking the team into that ceiling until they can get out from under the Valdez, Suarez, Bellinger contracts at some point in the future.

Is your scenerio a - all must fall into place scenario or is there room for occasional downfall.

[mattmitchl44]

Sure they can. Humor me. Give me youe estimated payroll for the following:

Rotation: Valdez, Gray, Acquired P via trade (assume pre-arb), Liberatore, McGreevy.

Position Players: Contreras, Wetherholt, Winn, Eugenio Suarez, Scott, Burleson, Cody Bellinger, Herrera, Crooks, Saggese, Church, Torres, Gorman

Pen: Phil Maton, Romero, O'Brien, Graceffo, Svanson, Leahy, Kyle Finnegan, another pre-arb guy.

Big $ guys: Valdez, Gray, Bellinger, Suarez, Contreras

This is just an example, but can you give me the payroll for this roster?

I'll hit the major contributors at least.

$ are either actual or est. from FG or Cot's; fWAR est. and from FG models (and I'll give you the highest model proj. fWAR)

Gray - $35 million, 4.0 fWAR
Valdez - $28 million, 3.7 fWAR
Liberatore - $2.5 million, 1.3 fWAR
McGreevy - $800K, 1.6 fWAR

Contreras - $18 million, 1.9 fWAR
Suarez - $20 million, 2.7 fWAR
Bellinger - $27 million, 3.0 fWAR
Herrera - $800K, 3.0 fWAR
Winn - $800K, 3.6 fWAR
Burleson - $2.5 million, 2.2 fWAR
Scott - $800K, 1.3 fWAR
Crooks/Pages - $1.6 million, 2.0 fWAR

Entire bullpen (8) - $20 million (at least, with Maton $5M, Finnegan $7M, Romero $3.5M, etc.), 3.5 fWAR (ML average last year)

So that's $158.2+ million (not to mention ~$15 million sent with Arenado, probably - so really more like $173.2+ million) and 33.8 fWAR without figuring in:

Three bench players (Saggese, Gorman, Torres), Wetherholt, and your unnamed SP acquired from trade.

You need 42 fWAR to be a team with even 90 win talent, so you are 8+ fWAR short. And you probably really want at least 10+ fWAR more (a 92 win talent team) if you are going to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc.

The bench isn't going to give you but 1 or 2, your unnamed SP (if pre-ARB) is likely to be still developing and isn't likely to be more than ~2 fWAR.

So maybe you've got 38 fWAR (an 86 win team) without Wetherholt. And, again, that's based on the most favorable FG model proj. of what fWAR all of those guys are going to produce. You need Wetherholt to be an All-Star level player from Day 1 to just get to 90 wins.

And, if he ISN'T an immediate wunderkind, you're stuck with likely declining assets (Valdez, Suarez, Bellinger, etc.) that you're committed to paying A LOT of money to in 2027, 2028, 2029, etc.

Your last paragraph. Likely declining assets. Aren’t they likely declining assets even if JJ is great.

Yes, when you sign a 32 yr. old Valdez or a 34 yr. old Suarez, it's like buying a new car and driving it off the lot - you have to expect they start to depreciate from the moment you sign the contract because that's just likely where they are in their career arc.

He's basically just assembling the same team the Cardinals have assembled for the last decade - one at its best that is just good enough to get into the playoffs and get run over in the first round. And he's locking the team into that ceiling until they can get out from under the Valdez, Suarez, Bellinger contracts at some point in the future.

Is your scenerio a - all must fall into place scenario or is there room for occasional downfall.

I don't understand your question. What scenario are you talking about?

[sikeston bulldog2]

Sure they can. Humor me. Give me youe estimated payroll for the following:

Rotation: Valdez, Gray, Acquired P via trade (assume pre-arb), Liberatore, McGreevy.

Position Players: Contreras, Wetherholt, Winn, Eugenio Suarez, Scott, Burleson, Cody Bellinger, Herrera, Crooks, Saggese, Church, Torres, Gorman

Pen: Phil Maton, Romero, O'Brien, Graceffo, Svanson, Leahy, Kyle Finnegan, another pre-arb guy.

Big $ guys: Valdez, Gray, Bellinger, Suarez, Contreras

This is just an example, but can you give me the payroll for this roster?

I'll hit the major contributors at least.

$ are either actual or est. from FG or Cot's; fWAR est. and from FG models (and I'll give you the highest model proj. fWAR)

Gray - $35 million, 4.0 fWAR
Valdez - $28 million, 3.7 fWAR
Liberatore - $2.5 million, 1.3 fWAR
McGreevy - $800K, 1.6 fWAR

Contreras - $18 million, 1.9 fWAR
Suarez - $20 million, 2.7 fWAR
Bellinger - $27 million, 3.0 fWAR
Herrera - $800K, 3.0 fWAR
Winn - $800K, 3.6 fWAR
Burleson - $2.5 million, 2.2 fWAR
Scott - $800K, 1.3 fWAR
Crooks/Pages - $1.6 million, 2.0 fWAR

Entire bullpen (8) - $20 million (at least, with Maton $5M, Finnegan $7M, Romero $3.5M, etc.), 3.5 fWAR (ML average last year)

So that's $158.2+ million (not to mention ~$15 million sent with Arenado, probably - so really more like $173.2+ million) and 33.8 fWAR without figuring in:

Three bench players (Saggese, Gorman, Torres), Wetherholt, and your unnamed SP acquired from trade.

You need 42 fWAR to be a team with even 90 win talent, so you are 8+ fWAR short. And you probably really want at least 10+ fWAR more (a 92 win talent team) if you are going to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc.

The bench isn't going to give you but 1 or 2, your unnamed SP (if pre-ARB) is likely to be still developing and isn't likely to be more than ~2 fWAR.

So maybe you've got 38 fWAR (an 86 win team) without Wetherholt. And, again, that's based on the most favorable FG model proj. of what fWAR all of those guys are going to produce. You need Wetherholt to be an All-Star level player from Day 1 to just get to 90 wins.

And, if he ISN'T an immediate wunderkind, you're stuck with likely declining assets (Valdez, Suarez, Bellinger, etc.) that you're committed to paying A LOT of money to in 2027, 2028, 2029, etc.

Your last paragraph. Likely declining assets. Aren’t they likely declining assets even if JJ is great.

Yes, when you sign a 32 yr. old Valdez or a 34 yr. old Suarez, it's like buying a new car and driving it off the lot - you have to expect they start to depreciate from the moment you sign the contract because that's just likely where they are in their career arc.

He's basically just assembling the same team the Cardinals have assembled for the last decade - one at its best that is just good enough to get into the playoffs and get run over in the first round. And he's locking the team into that ceiling until they can get out from under the Valdez, Suarez, Bellinger contracts at some point in the future.

Is your scenerio a - all must fall into place scenario or is there room for occasional downfall.

I don't understand your question. What scenario are you talking about?

Your layout to a path forward- in a line item format. Must every line/war be met at it above the line; and if one player doesn’t meet the line, can another player cover the down player with his war. Does that work and is it possibly expected.

[Cardinals4Life]

Sure they can. Humor me. Give me youe estimated payroll for the following:

Rotation: Valdez, Gray, Acquired P via trade (assume pre-arb), Liberatore, McGreevy.

Position Players: Contreras, Wetherholt, Winn, Eugenio Suarez, Scott, Burleson, Cody Bellinger, Herrera, Crooks, Saggese, Church, Torres, Gorman

Pen: Phil Maton, Romero, O'Brien, Graceffo, Svanson, Leahy, Kyle Finnegan, another pre-arb guy.

Big $ guys: Valdez, Gray, Bellinger, Suarez, Contreras

This is just an example, but can you give me the payroll for this roster?

I'll hit the major contributors at least.

$ are either actual or est. from FG or Cot's; fWAR est. and from FG models (and I'll give you the highest model proj. fWAR)

Gray - $35 million, 4.0 fWAR
Valdez - $28 million, 3.7 fWAR
Liberatore - $2.5 million, 1.3 fWAR
McGreevy - $800K, 1.6 fWAR

Contreras - $18 million, 1.9 fWAR
Suarez - $20 million, 2.7 fWAR
Bellinger - $27 million, 3.0 fWAR
Herrera - $800K, 3.0 fWAR
Winn - $800K, 3.6 fWAR
Burleson - $2.5 million, 2.2 fWAR
Scott - $800K, 1.3 fWAR
Crooks/Pages - $1.6 million, 2.0 fWAR

Entire bullpen (8) - $20 million (at least, with Maton $5M, Finnegan $7M, Romero $3.5M, etc.), 3.5 fWAR (ML average last year)

So that's $158.2+ million (not to mention ~$15 million sent with Arenado, probably - so really more like $173.2+ million) and 33.8 fWAR without figuring in:

Three bench players (Saggese, Gorman, Torres), Wetherholt, and your unnamed SP acquired from trade.

You need 42 fWAR to be a team with even 90 win talent, so you are 8+ fWAR short. And you probably really want at least 10+ fWAR more (a 92 win talent team) if you are going to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc.

The bench isn't going to give you but 1 or 2, your unnamed SP (if pre-ARB) is likely to be still developing and isn't likely to be more than ~2 fWAR.

So maybe you've got 38 fWAR (an 86 win team) without Wetherholt. And, again, that's based on the most favorable FG model proj. of what fWAR ALL of those guys are going to produce. You need Wetherholt to be an All-Star level player from Day 1 to just get to 90 wins.

And, if he ISN'T an immediate wunderkind, you're stuck with likely declining assets (Valdez, Suarez, Bellinger, etc.) that you're committed to paying A LOT of money to in 2027, 2028, 2029, etc.

Basically you are just repeating the same roll of the dice the Cardinals made with Goldschmidt-Arenado, hoping to win something before they fall off the table without having the supporting cast now to do so.

First of all, thank you for taking the time to research/type all of that. I do appreciate it. Even though we disagree a lot, I appreciate the dialogue!

Okay, so a couple of things.
1.) Those players acquired are just examples, although I do really like some of them.
2.) I didn't have Pages on there, but I won't quibble.
3.) This team is definitely a playoff contender.
4.) You can't just assign WAR to a guy (WAR is an entirely different debate) and that's magically what he produces for you and that's how many wins you get. It doesn't work that way. These guys are ballplayer, not lines on a spreadsheet. I would bet good money that that above roster would be a playoff-caliber team.
5.) Though you may not agree with thise moves (and it appears likely Cards won't either), I think you clearly proved my point that this team CAN be fixed to a strong contending, playoff team with a few moves.
6.) This team would also have major excitement for the fans going forward, which would equal more attendance, which is more revenue.
7.) This plan does nothing to jeopardize the future of the team. You can still keep developing your farm and young guys. This is just competing, while still doing that. Apparently Mozeliak was trying to compete (although that's questionable), but neglecting the internal development. Bloom can surely do both. Any competent President could!
8.) FA guys arent going to magically decline in a couple years. If the young guys don't play complimentary baseball like you think they should good enough in 2026, then you have 2027. And so on. You can always make tweaks to your roster. But you can't be afraid to go get quality players, because they are going to decline. Everyone declines. You just have to be smart about it. The problem with Goldy and Nado was Mo stopped short of finishing out a roster. He thought 2 guys would get it done and he neglected everything else. IMO, you need 3 boppers. (Suarez, Bellinger, and Contreras would suffice.) Then you have a young Herrera, Burleson, and Wetherholt as good sticks. Winn and Scott are your defense-first guys, which is fine.


Anyway, I dont think you and I are as far apart as we think. I think you want to spend money (sometime, maybe???) when you think we have enough young guys, I just want to spend it sooner because I think we have young, complimentary pieces here NOW. No need to keep waiting. (And I'm not convinced Cards will ever spend again.) I also disagree that wins and player performance can be predicted on a spreadsheet in the offseason.

Thanks for the discussion Mmitch.

[Bomber1]

I'll add - the "loser mentality" is, if anything, whining for ownership to give you the pablum of a couple of "stars," a couple of "names" you recognize, even when you should know this team is nowhere good enough to really compete with a couple of more "names."

Settling for being pacified by just having a couple more "names" on the back of jerseys instead of demanding the implementation of a real plan to eventually be able to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, Padres, etc. is the "loser mentality." That's really what ownership has been selling fans on for the last several years to get to this point.

You sure seem to think you’ve got it all figured out and us “Whiners” are clueless! Are you really just another account for Melville?
Hope you enjoy the next 3+ years of futility!
In my opinion this team is only 3 or 4 players away from being able to compete. I guess you have no confidence in any of our current players, so to replace the whole team will take several years!

"Only" four $25 million or $30 million AAV players? Only $100 to $120 million a year?

Is that all?

Well, that would probably do it, but it wouldn’t cost nearly that much and you know it. You’re just exaggerating to try and prove your point is the correct one. There are other options, DeWitt just refuses to use them and you won’t budge off of your narrative to admit there are either.

So…these quality free agents ……they are going to have offers from other clubs…most of them currently much more competitive than STL

Why would they pass up those opportunities to sign with Stl?

None of these “sign 3 or 4 top free agents” ever explain the question you’ve asked at least 3 times in this thread alone.

Remember, this club’s biggest FA contract ever was given to Matt Holliday about 17 years ago.

Now that they expect the team to go sign 3 or 4 guys whose contracts will all be higher than Holliday’s? To come to a team that’s 20 under .500 over the past 3 years?

This organization won’t do that. Nor should they at this point.
And the guy who said “that’s Bloom’s job” doesn’t count.

[Ozziesfan41]

I'll add - the "loser mentality" is, if anything, whining for ownership to give you the pablum of a couple of "stars," a couple of "names" you recognize, even when you should know this team is nowhere good enough to really compete with a couple of more "names."

Settling for being pacified by just having a couple more "names" on the back of jerseys instead of demanding the implementation of a real plan to eventually be able to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, Padres, etc. is the "loser mentality." That's really what ownership has been selling fans on for the last several years to get to this point.

You sure seem to think you’ve got it all figured out and us “Whiners” are clueless! Are you really just another account for Melville?
Hope you enjoy the next 3+ years of futility!
In my opinion this team is only 3 or 4 players away from being able to compete. I guess you have no confidence in any of our current players, so to replace the whole team will take several years!

"Only" four $25 million or $30 million AAV players? Only $100 to $120 million a year?

Is that all?

Well, that would probably do it, but it wouldn’t cost nearly that much and you know it. You’re just exaggerating to try and prove your point is the correct one. There are other options, DeWitt just refuses to use them and you won’t budge off of your narrative to admit there are either.

So…these quality free agents ……they are going to have offers from other clubs…most of them currently much more competitive than STL

Why would they pass up those opportunities to sign with Stl?

None of these “sign 3 or 4 top free agents” ever explain the question you’ve asked at least 3 times in this thread alone.

Remember, this club’s biggest FA contract ever was given to Matt Holliday about 17 years ago.

Now that they expect the team to go sign 3 or 4 guys whose contracts will all be higher than Holliday’s? To come to a team that’s 20 under .500 over the past 3 years?

This organization won’t do that. Nor should they at this point.
And the guy who said “that’s Bloom’s job” doesn’t count.

And why would the players want to sign on a team like that when they can sign with a better team for similar money

[mattmitchl44]

Sure they can. Humor me. Give me youe estimated payroll for the following:

Rotation: Valdez, Gray, Acquired P via trade (assume pre-arb), Liberatore, McGreevy.

Position Players: Contreras, Wetherholt, Winn, Eugenio Suarez, Scott, Burleson, Cody Bellinger, Herrera, Crooks, Saggese, Church, Torres, Gorman

Pen: Phil Maton, Romero, O'Brien, Graceffo, Svanson, Leahy, Kyle Finnegan, another pre-arb guy.

Big $ guys: Valdez, Gray, Bellinger, Suarez, Contreras

This is just an example, but can you give me the payroll for this roster?

I'll hit the major contributors at least.

$ are either actual or est. from FG or Cot's; fWAR est. and from FG models (and I'll give you the highest model proj. fWAR)

Gray - $35 million, 4.0 fWAR
Valdez - $28 million, 3.7 fWAR
Liberatore - $2.5 million, 1.3 fWAR
McGreevy - $800K, 1.6 fWAR

Contreras - $18 million, 1.9 fWAR
Suarez - $20 million, 2.7 fWAR
Bellinger - $27 million, 3.0 fWAR
Herrera - $800K, 3.0 fWAR
Winn - $800K, 3.6 fWAR
Burleson - $2.5 million, 2.2 fWAR
Scott - $800K, 1.3 fWAR
Crooks/Pages - $1.6 million, 2.0 fWAR

Entire bullpen (8) - $20 million (at least, with Maton $5M, Finnegan $7M, Romero $3.5M, etc.), 3.5 fWAR (ML average last year)

So that's $158.2+ million (not to mention ~$15 million sent with Arenado, probably - so really more like $173.2+ million) and 33.8 fWAR without figuring in:

Three bench players (Saggese, Gorman, Torres), Wetherholt, and your unnamed SP acquired from trade.

You need 42 fWAR to be a team with even 90 win talent, so you are 8+ fWAR short. And you probably really want at least 10+ fWAR more (a 92 win talent team) if you are going to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc.

The bench isn't going to give you but 1 or 2, your unnamed SP (if pre-ARB) is likely to be still developing and isn't likely to be more than ~2 fWAR.

So maybe you've got 38 fWAR (an 86 win team) without Wetherholt. And, again, that's based on the most favorable FG model proj. of what fWAR ALL of those guys are going to produce. You need Wetherholt to be an All-Star level player from Day 1 to just get to 90 wins.

And, if he ISN'T an immediate wunderkind, you're stuck with likely declining assets (Valdez, Suarez, Bellinger, etc.) that you're committed to paying A LOT of money to in 2027, 2028, 2029, etc.

Basically you are just repeating the same roll of the dice the Cardinals made with Goldschmidt-Arenado, hoping to win something before they fall off the table without having the supporting cast now to do so.

First of all, thank you for taking the time to research/type all of that. I do appreciate it. Even though we disagree a lot, I appreciate the dialogue!

Okay, so a couple of things.
1.) Those players acquired are just examples, although I do really like some of them.
2.) I didn't have Pages on there, but I won't quibble.
3.) This team is definitely a playoff contender.
4.) You can't just assign WAR to a guy (WAR is an entirely different debate) and that's magically what he produces for you and that's how many wins you get. It doesn't work that way. These guys are ballplayer, not lines on a spreadsheet. I would bet good money that that above roster would be a playoff-caliber team.
5.) Though you may not agree with thise moves (and it appears likely Cards won't either), I think you clearly proved my point that this team CAN be fixed to a strong contending, playoff team with a few moves.
6.) This team would also have major excitement for the fans going forward, which would equal more attendance, which is more revenue.
7.) This plan does nothing to jeopardize the future of the team. You can still keep developing your farm and young guys. This is just competing, while still doing that. Apparently Mozeliak was trying to compete (although that's questionable), but neglecting the internal development. Bloom can surely do both. Any competent President could!
8.) FA guys arent going to magically decline in a couple years. If the young guys don't play complimentary baseball like you think they should good enough in 2026, then you have 2027. And so on. You can always make tweaks to your roster. But you can't be afraid to go get quality players, because they are going to decline. Everyone declines. You just have to be smart about it. The problem with Goldy and Nado was Mo stopped short of finishing out a roster. He thought 2 guys would get it done and he neglected everything else. IMO, you need 3 boppers. (Suarez, Bellinger, and Contreras would suffice.) Then you have a young Herrera, Burleson, and Wetherholt as good sticks. Winn and Scott are your defense-first guys, which is fine.


Anyway, I dont think you and I are as far apart as we think. I think you want to spend money (sometime, maybe???) when you think we have enough young guys, I just want to spend it sooner because I think we have young, complimentary pieces here NOW. No need to keep waiting. (And I'm not convinced Cards will ever spend again.) I also disagree that wins and player performance can be predicted on a spreadsheet in the offseason.

Thanks for the discussion Mmitch.

You're welcome.

What we disagree about is timing. I've stated over and over that they will eventually have to spend back at $170 or $180 million again.

But this is a marathon not a sprint. The Cardinals have to be smart and pick the right time to make their move and win the race. But that time is not right now.

As I've documented elsewhere they need more young talent producing at the ML level before the are ready to go all out with their spending "kick" to be really competitive with the big payroll teams.

Spending now is "kicking" too early in the race and they'll run out of momentum before they get good enough to cross the finish line in 1st in 2028, 2029, 2030.

You can feel that your proposal makes the Cardinals "competitive" in 2026. I've tried to show with available data that what you propose is likely going to make them an 88 to 90 win team, at best. That's likely more "lose in the 1st round of the playoffs to better teams."

[45s]

I'll add - the "loser mentality" is, if anything, whining for ownership to give you the pablum of a couple of "stars," a couple of "names" you recognize, even when you should know this team is nowhere good enough to really compete with a couple of more "names."

Settling for being pacified by just having a couple more "names" on the back of jerseys instead of demanding the implementation of a real plan to eventually be able to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, Padres, etc. is the "loser mentality." That's really what ownership has been selling fans on for the last several years to get to this point.

You sure seem to think you’ve got it all figured out and us “Whiners” are clueless! Are you really just another account for Melville?
Hope you enjoy the next 3+ years of futility!
In my opinion this team is only 3 or 4 players away from being able to compete. I guess you have no confidence in any of our current players, so to replace the whole team will take several years!

"Only" four $25 million or $30 million AAV players? Only $100 to $120 million a year?

Is that all?

Well, that would probably do it, but it wouldn’t cost nearly that much and you know it. You’re just exaggerating to try and prove your point is the correct one. There are other options, DeWitt just refuses to use them and you won’t budge off of your narrative to admit there are either.

So…these quality free agents ……they are going to have offers from other clubs…most of them currently much more competitive than STL

Why would they pass up those opportunities to sign with Stl?

None of these “sign 3 or 4 top free agents” ever explain the question you’ve asked at least 3 times in this thread alone.

Remember, this club’s biggest FA contract ever was given to Matt Holliday about 17 years ago.

Now that they expect the team to go sign 3 or 4 guys whose contracts will all be higher than Holliday’s? To come to a team that’s 20 under .500 over the past 3 years?

This organization won’t do that. Nor should they at this point.
And the guy who said “that’s Bloom’s job” doesn’t count.

I find it telling....and amusing....that some just want the owner to spend, apparently on any warm body they can find...

or

they seem to think that these "elite" free agents are just sitting by the phone, desperately hoping the the cards call

hello?? they're not

I think bloom is moving in the right direction......and the the time to spend will come..

[Goldfan]

I'll add - the "loser mentality" is, if anything, whining for ownership to give you the pablum of a couple of "stars," a couple of "names" you recognize, even when you should know this team is nowhere good enough to really compete with a couple of more "names."

Settling for being pacified by just having a couple more "names" on the back of jerseys instead of demanding the implementation of a real plan to eventually be able to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, Padres, etc. is the "loser mentality." That's really what ownership has been selling fans on for the last several years to get to this point.

You sure seem to think you’ve got it all figured out and us “Whiners” are clueless! Are you really just another account for Melville?
Hope you enjoy the next 3+ years of futility!
In my opinion this team is only 3 or 4 players away from being able to compete. I guess you have no confidence in any of our current players, so to replace the whole team will take several years!

"Only" four $25 million or $30 million AAV players? Only $100 to $120 million a year?

Is that all?

Well, that would probably do it, but it wouldn’t cost nearly that much and you know it. You’re just exaggerating to try and prove your point is the correct one. There are other options, DeWitt just refuses to use them and you won’t budge off of your narrative to admit there are either.

So…these quality free agents ……they are going to have offers from other clubs…most of them currently much more competitive than STL

Why would they pass up those opportunities to sign with Stl?

None of these “sign 3 or 4 top free agents” ever explain the question you’ve asked at least 3 times in this thread alone.

Remember, this club’s biggest FA contract ever was given to Matt Holliday about 17 years ago.

Now that they expect the team to go sign 3 or 4 guys whose contracts will all be higher than Holliday’s? To come to a team that’s 20 under .500 over the past 3 years?

This organization won’t do that. Nor should they at this point.
And the guy who said “that’s Bloom’s job” doesn’t count.

I find it telling....and amusing....that some just want the owner to spend, apparently on any warm body they can find...

or

they seem to think that these "elite" free agents are just sitting by the phone, desperately hoping the the cards call

hello?? they're not

I think bloom is moving in the right direction......and the the time to spend will come..

BDW money spends just as easily as any other owners money…..

[ecleme22]

I'll add - the "loser mentality" is, if anything, whining for ownership to give you the pablum of a couple of "stars," a couple of "names" you recognize, even when you should know this team is nowhere good enough to really compete with a couple of more "names."

Settling for being pacified by just having a couple more "names" on the back of jerseys instead of demanding the implementation of a real plan to eventually be able to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, Padres, etc. is the "loser mentality." That's really what ownership has been selling fans on for the last several years to get to this point.

You sure seem to think you’ve got it all figured out and us “Whiners” are clueless! Are you really just another account for Melville?
Hope you enjoy the next 3+ years of futility!
In my opinion this team is only 3 or 4 players away from being able to compete. I guess you have no confidence in any of our current players, so to replace the whole team will take several years!

"Only" four $25 million or $30 million AAV players? Only $100 to $120 million a year?

Is that all?

Yes, that is all. Cards can afford to carry some players of this magnitude. We have a team full of YOUR "cost-controlled" young players. You are going to have to pay some pillars.

They can't afford four $25 to $30 million players AND pay for a good enough rest of the roster to support them unless they have even more young, cost controlled players than I project that they need.

They don't have anywhere close to the depth and quality of young cost controlled players to make it work right now.

Having Gorman at -0.2 fWAR, Walker at -1.2 fWAR, Ryan Fernandez, etc. are not contributing, as of now at least, to the depth and quality of young cost controlled players they need.

Sure they can. Humor me. Give me youe estimated payroll for the following:

Rotation: Valdez, Gray, Acquired P via trade (assume pre-arb), Liberatore, McGreevy.

Position Players: Contreras, Wetherholt, Winn, Eugenio Suarez, Scott, Burleson, Cody Bellinger, Herrera, Crooks, Saggese, Church, Torres, Gorman

Pen: Phil Maton, Romero, O'Brien, Graceffo, Svanson, Leahy, Kyle Finnegan, another pre-arb guy.

Big $ guys: Valdez, Gray, Bellinger, Suarez, Contreras

This is just an example, but can you give me the payroll for this roster?

So let's see:
1. We lose the prospect return from not trading Sonny Gray.
2. We lose the money saved for keeping Sonny Gray.
3. We lose prospects from acquiring a pre arb starter.
4. We lose prospects we could've gotten for trading Contreras.
5. We lose money saved for keeping Contreras.
6. We lose the prospect return for Romero.
7. We lose prospects we traded for a pre arb reliever
8. We lose at least 50-60mil in financial flexibility in 2026-2027 and beyond.

Oh, and we are dependent on a rotation featuring a 36 year old Gray, an unproven McGreevy, and Libby who has yet to show he's a workhorse. And no 6th starter.
Oh, and we are dependent on Gorman, Saggese, Crooks and Scott. Lovely.

Yeah, so your plan isn't a very good plan unless you think the world is going to end after the 2026 season. You drastically reduce the number of prospects in your system, while adding significantly to the payroll, and the roster (both starters and position players) remains very vulnerable and unproven.

You can be the Angels GM. This is the kind of [shirt] they've done for 20 years...