Goldfan wrote: ↑02 Aug 2026 08:45 am
Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.
Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team.
Agreed. I think depending on prospects for the core of your team is a fool's errand. You get premium talent by signing or trading for it and then you fill in with the young guys in the minors. Maybe you develop a star every now and then.
Yea depending on yadi and pujols who were prospects rhat formed the core was dumb lol
Goldfan wrote: ↑02 Aug 2026 08:45 am
Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.
Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team.
Or perhaps a more nuanced view- some will deliver and some will fail?
Thompson
Hence
Rom
Roby
Libby
Suppose theres a chance…..recent history isn’t on your side. Neither is the fact that in the Cards modern history of baseball no competitive/championship team has been built in the manner this Ownership/FO is broadcasting to the world.
But theres always a chance a unicorn may appear in the dugout or monkey’s fly out of BDW backside…….
With all due respect aren't those all from Mo's picks or trades? I get what you are saying, but as Tampa Bay and Milwaukee have shown, you can get much better results if a more competent group is in place.
Still no amount of the best farm system will be enough if you don't leverage it for trades and/or sign free agents to supplement it.
Goldfan wrote: ↑02 Aug 2026 08:45 am
Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.
Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team.
Or perhaps a more nuanced view- some will deliver and some will fail?
Thompson
Hence
Rom
Roby
Libby
Suppose theres a chance…..recent history isn’t on your side. Neither is the fact that in the Cards modern history of baseball no competitive/championship team has been built in the manner this Ownership/FO is broadcasting to the world.
But theres always a chance a unicorn may appear in the dugout or monkey’s fly out of BDW backside…….
With all due respect aren't those all from Mo's picks or trades? I get what you are saying, but as Tampa Bay and Milwaukee have shown, you can get much better results if a more competent group is in place.
Still no amount of the best farm system will be enough if you don't leverage it for trades and/or sign free agents to supplement it.
And developed by a woefully inept player draft and development system that mo gutted to spend on the major league team which Goldfan and ccards are now champions of the failed mo way
Goldfan wrote: ↑02 Aug 2026 08:45 am
Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.
Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team.
Or perhaps a more nuanced view- some will deliver and some will fail?
Thompson
Hence
Rom
Roby
Libby
Suppose theres a chance…..recent history isn’t on your side. Neither is the fact that in the Cards modern history of baseball no competitive/championship team has been built in the manner this Ownership/FO is broadcasting to the world.
But theres always a chance a unicorn may appear in the dugout or monkey’s fly out of BDW backside…….
With all due respect aren't those all from Mo's picks or trades? I get what you are saying, but as Tampa Bay and Milwaukee have shown, you can get much better results if a more competent group is in place.
Still no amount of the best farm system will be enough if you don't leverage it for trades and/or sign free agents to supplement it.
And developed by a woefully inept player draft and development system that mo gutted to spend on the major league team which Goldfan and ccards are now champions of the failed mo way
Are we going with the narrative that you can’t spend on MLB talent and a minor league system?
Goldfan wrote: ↑02 Aug 2026 08:45 am
Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.
Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team.
Or perhaps a more nuanced view- some will deliver and some will fail?
Thompson
Hence
Rom
Roby
Libby
Suppose theres a chance…..recent history isn’t on your side. Neither is the fact that in the Cards modern history of baseball no competitive/championship team has been built in the manner this Ownership/FO is broadcasting to the world.
But theres always a chance a unicorn may appear in the dugout or monkey’s fly out of BDW backside…….
With all due respect aren't those all from Mo's picks or trades? I get what you are saying, but as Tampa Bay and Milwaukee have shown, you can get much better results if a more competent group is in place.
Still no amount of the best farm system will be enough if you don't leverage it for trades and/or sign free agents to supplement it.
And developed by a woefully inept player draft and development system that mo gutted to spend on the major league team which Goldfan and ccards are now champions of the failed mo way
Are we going with the narrative that you can’t spend on MLB talent and a minor league system?
No I am going with the narrative it’s dumb to spend on a team that has no young core I mean that would be as dumb as you can get
Goldfan wrote: ↑02 Aug 2026 08:45 am
Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.
Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team.
Agreed. I think depending on prospects for the core of your team is a fool's errand. You get premium talent by signing or trading for it and then you fill in with the young guys in the minors. Maybe you develop a star every now and then.
Yea depending on yadi and pujols who were prospects rhat formed the core was dumb lol
2011 was the last year Mo had anyone significant from the old regime either coaching from the old regime. After a few seasons with Mo, they settled into mediocrity. The 2015 trade deadline/postseason was where MO lost the team.
Goldfan wrote: ↑02 Aug 2026 08:45 am
Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.
Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team.
Or perhaps a more nuanced view- some will deliver and some will fail?
Thompson
Hence
Rom
Roby
Libby
Suppose theres a chance…..recent history isn’t on your side. Neither is the fact that in the Cards modern history of baseball no competitive/championship team has been built in the manner this Ownership/FO is broadcasting to the world.
But theres always a chance a unicorn may appear in the dugout or monkey’s fly out of BDW backside…….
With all due respect aren't those all from Mo's picks or trades? I get what you are saying, but as Tampa Bay and Milwaukee have shown, you can get much better results if a more competent group is in place.
Still no amount of the best farm system will be enough if you don't leverage it for trades and/or sign free agents to supplement it.
And developed by a woefully inept player draft and development system that mo gutted to spend on the major league team which Goldfan and ccards are now champions of the failed mo way
Are we going with the narrative that you can’t spend on MLB talent and a minor league system?
I think through this whole BDW/MO affair most have been confusing either blatant intentional incompetence/or blatant unintentional incompetence for the inability to spend $$$ on the MLB team and minor league system.
All I hear is that Mo spent on vets and this led to the minor league system rotting.
Which is about the dumbest conclusion every made
After TLR left BDW/MO thought they could run the show…..everything….didn’t need a real manager/pitching coach…..didn’t need a modern robust development system. Why…..because they were brainwashed into thinking whatever they would so would succeed…..after the long Pujols/TLR span.
Nothing could be farther from the Truth. They were terrible and it didn’t matter the money spent or whatever choices they made. It was almost always wrong and bad. So now all we hear is that the Mo Way can’t be repeated……
Spending money on the correct talent while supporting the Minor Leagues is always the WAY. Having complete Phuckups run that for 15yrs is NEVER the WAY
Goldfan wrote: ↑02 Aug 2026 08:45 am
Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.
Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team.
Or perhaps a more nuanced view- some will deliver and some will fail?
Thompson
Hence
Rom
Roby
Libby
Suppose theres a chance…..recent history isn’t on your side. Neither is the fact that in the Cards modern history of baseball no competitive/championship team has been built in the manner this Ownership/FO is broadcasting to the world.
But theres always a chance a unicorn may appear in the dugout or monkey’s fly out of BDW backside…….
With all due respect aren't those all from Mo's picks or trades? I get what you are saying, but as Tampa Bay and Milwaukee have shown, you can get much better results if a more competent group is in place.
Still no amount of the best farm system will be enough if you don't leverage it for trades and/or sign free agents to supplement it.
And developed by a woefully inept player draft and development system that mo gutted to spend on the major league team which Goldfan and ccards are now champions of the failed mo way
Are we going with the narrative that you can’t spend on MLB talent and a minor league system?
No I am going with the narrative it’s dumb to spend on a team that has no young core I mean that would be as dumb as you can get
If you don't develop a good enough core then you have to pay for it. Some money will always be necessary in FA, but the less core you develop, the more you will have to sign it. The Cardinals used to balance trade/FA/Player development mix well
Yes, they will have to spend significantly, at some point, to add a few, select, key FAs.
But that spending comes AFTER you have developed the core of young players that you need to build around. Only AFTER you have developed that core do you know what are the priority holes you have to fill. And you have to keep at acquiring and developing prospects until you get to that core of young players on your ML roster.
It's not just spending - it's timely, informed, and smart spending that will be necessary.
Before the recent stall, our 1-4 in the lineup was amongst the most productive in MLB. Our rotation has 3-5 solidified with McGreevy, Pallante, and Leahy. We have a closer near the top in saves and a great setup man in Soriano and another promising in in Graceffo. Gastelum has been taking his lumps but did earn his promotion. Baez is on his way along with Cintje and Liam Doyle. We have two young stars in JJ and Walker.
Is that not enough young talent to work with? If we keep waiting, the young talent we current have is going to be deep in arbitration and reaching free agency and will be lost. The time to shift to a winning mentality is this offseason. The stars will NEVER perfectly align. Keep waiting and making cherry picked metric based excuses and this team will continue to bottom feed.
Worst to first isn’t happening. Incremental success is more sensible. To think we’re just going to jump straight from non-playoff bottom feeder to WS winner is ridiculous.
No, it's not.
Just having a 1-4 in your lineup isn't enough.
And the Cardinals are, at least, having developed 1-2 young, front of rotation SPs short of being ready to compete.
They need to develop and get Doyle, Franklin, Cijinte, R. Rodriguez, Baez, etc. to the majors not just be "on the way."
And you have to keep the young talent you have developed (Wetherholt, etc.) from being "lost" by aggressively signing them to team friendly long term extensions so that you keep them through their prime seasons.
And, yes, it all takes time. Houston went through three 100+ loss seasons (2011-2013) before they rebuilt, then started spending again, and won. Atlanta went through three 90+ loss seasons (2015-2017) before they rebuilt, then started spending again, and won.
If Cardinals fans can stand just being a sub-.500 team for two or three years, maybe they need to toughen up a bit like Astros and Braves fans.
And you think all of this is going to happen all within the same timeframe? Why can’t we sign a good starter as we wait for the others? Quite
possible both Doyle and Cintje fail, or at least don’t live up to FOTR standard. What then? Back at square one.
Why can’t we buy a bat or two? Maybe a top tier and a mid tier? No one will stop Baez or Raniel from carving out a role if they force the issue. We could always trade someone away if there’s that bad of a logjam. If Bloom’s developmental system is so magical, let them bask in its glory another year to ensure success and less growing pains. You act like we have nothing right now. If that’s the case, the plan has already proven to be completely ineffective.
You must really think Bloom is a genius and knows something everyone else doesn’t.
They don't have "nothing," but they are clearly far short still of having enough.
And, if you know you are far short of having enough, you don't go out now and add older, expensive veterans to it just to fall short - because that is how you end up with 2025 Nolan Arenado on your roster instead of 2021/2022 Nolan Arenado when you DO have enough and ARE ready to compete.
Keep the books clean of big contracts that will likely be bad in 3-4 years when you aren't ready to compete now anyway.
When you prospect and metric guys run out of answers you always bring up Nolan Arenado. What about these guys, who their teams followed your master plan of getting prearb team friendly extensions? Are they not more relevant examples?:
Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays, 11 years, $182M
Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates, 8yr $70M
Kristian Campbell, 8 years, $60M
Luis Robert Jr. 6 years, $50M
Paul DeJong, 6 years, $26M
Eloy Jiménez, 6 years, $43M
Fernando Tatís Jr. 14 years, $340M (he was prearb)
A bunch of “safe-bets” on this list that were projected to be 2-3 fWAR and then some. Every one was a mistake.Your plan is not bullet proof, no matter how passionately you believe in the metrics.
Once the CBA dust settles the Cards need to spend aggressively to supplement their draft and development efforts and up their game in international scouting too, otherwise they are not serious about winning.
No plan is "bullet proof." Unless you are the Dodgers and can implement their plan.
And - yes - everyone agrees that the Cardinals need to be much better at identifying and developing talented players than they have been for the last decade. They have to be good at knowing who to sign long term, who to go year-to-year with, who to trade, etc.
Any team is going to make some mistake with the evaluation of their prospects - that is unavoidable in the baseball business. But it is much easier to absorb a $5 or $10 million AAV "miss" on a young player who you signed aggressively than a $25 or $30 million AAV "miss" on an expensive veteran.
Whole lot of misses that exceed 5-10M AAV on the list I provided, especially if you’re trying to build the majority of your team using that model. But we’ll just move past all that I guess. I don’t see why it’s so hard to accept that 1. It takes an all encompassing approach to build a winner and 2. You can’t keep waiting expecting every star in the sky to align. Take the successes you gain and build on them. The time has come to engage the other available mechanisms. We’re not an expansion team in the first couple of seasons.
I've never once said that it DIDN'T take an "all encompassing approach to build a winner."
I have repeatedly said that the Cardinals will eventually have to spend back to their historic levels (around 10th to 15th in MLB in payroll).
But eventually is not now, and it is almost certainly not this coming offseason.
If the development of the necessary young core of players continues as expected, they are probably looking to be back in a position to add ML players from outside the organization after the 2027 season - which is why 2028 is the most probable point at which they will be "competing" again.
Again, Houston went through three straight 100+ loss seasons and Atlanta went through three straight 90+ loss seasons before they were ready to compete again.
The Cardinals haven't even finished two straight 80+ loss seasons yet. This isn't some kind of epic suffering that Cardinals fans are going through.
They were already competing and as Melville pointed out, they derailed their own success out a stubbornly being unwilling to adjust. If this offseason is not the right time, it’s only because they made it that way. When the rebuild model is prioritized over the actual rebuild there will be persistent setbacks. And the answer will always be to wait it out. Just a different type of “reset” which still reeks of the Mozeliak mindset and poor leadership.
They weren't really competing. The start they got off to was a mirage. They were 21-14 through May 4. They've been 33-43 since.
Their run differential (-20), expected W-L (53-58), team fWAR (19.1, on pace for 27.8 - which means 75-87 at the end of the season or 52-59 now), etc. all says that this "regression to the mean" should have been expected all along.
If this is a 75 win talent team, you are talking another $120-$150 million (at FA rates) just to make them a plausible 90 win talent team. And that's likely the bare minimum to give them any chance against teams like the Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Brewers, Cubs, etc.
The Cardinals have been a nice story this year, and have made progress at rebuilding, but they were never actually in any position to compete with the best teams in MLB this season.
Mirages are things that appeared to happen but didn’t. Their actual real life record said otherwise. They were what their record said they were. Cards also beat several top teams to include the vaunted Dodgers and Braves.
For someone who is all about the tangible…why would you disregard W/L record? That’s as tangible as it gets.
Which is now 55-57 and more representative of this team's talent level.
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑02 Aug 2026 13:41 pm
They weren't really competing. The start they got off to was a mirage. They were 21-14 through May 4. They've been 33-43 since.
Their run differential (-20), expected W-L (53-58), team fWAR (19.1, on pace for 27.8 - which means 75-87 at the end of the season or 52-59 now), etc. all says that this "regression to the mean" should have been expected all along.
If this is a 75 win talent team, you are talking another $120-$150 million (at FA rates) just to make them a plausible 90 win talent team. And that's likely the bare minimum to give them any chance against teams like the Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Brewers, Cubs, etc.
The Cardinals have been a nice story this year, and have made progress at rebuilding, but they were never actually in any position to compete with the best teams in MLB this season.
There’s another important aspect not addressed in all this back and forth…
You claim the Cardinals can close the gap between them and the Dodgers by following your interpretation of the plan, but wouldn’t that also require the Dodgers to regress mightily at draft and development themselves?
They’ve been drafting low for a while now, yet they still had the best prospect capital to land Skubal. Couldn’t they just continue to outspend on draft and development resources too? Why should we expect our front office to overcome insurmountable odds but never the players who actually play the game?
Of course the Dodgers' advantages are going to be difficult to overcome.
But the Cardinals have to choose the strategy that gives them the best opportunity to match a team like the Dodgers as much as possible in terms of talent. You have to narrow the gap as much as you can, even if you can't completely close it.
And that strategy for any team with a small market or mid-market budget - like the Cardinals - is going to be relying heavily on young, cost controlled players for a lot of the team's talent.
It's kind of obvious that having a lot of relatively cheap talent (supplemented by only a few expensive veterans) is the only way to go.
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑02 Aug 2026 13:41 pm
They weren't really competing. The start they got off to was a mirage. They were 21-14 through May 4. They've been 33-43 since.
Their run differential (-20), expected W-L (53-58), team fWAR (19.1, on pace for 27.8 - which means 75-87 at the end of the season or 52-59 now), etc. all says that this "regression to the mean" should have been expected all along.
If this is a 75 win talent team, you are talking another $120-$150 million (at FA rates) just to make them a plausible 90 win talent team. And that's likely the bare minimum to give them any chance against teams like the Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Brewers, Cubs, etc.
The Cardinals have been a nice story this year, and have made progress at rebuilding, but they were never actually in any position to compete with the best teams in MLB this season.
There’s another important aspect not addressed in all this back and forth…
You claim the Cardinals can close the gap between them and the Dodgers by following your interpretation of the plan, but wouldn’t that also require the Dodgers to regress mightily at draft and development themselves?
They’ve been drafting low for a while now, yet they still had the best prospect capital to land Skubal. Couldn’t they just continue to outspend on draft and development resources too? Why should we expect our front office to overcome insurmountable odds but never the players who actually play the game?
Of course the Dodgers' advantages are going to be difficult to overcome.
But the Cardinals have to choose the strategy that gives them the best opportunity to match a team like the Dodgers as much as possible in terms of talent. You have to narrow the gap as much as you can, even if you can't completely close it.
And that strategy for any team with a small market or mid-market budget - like the Cardinals - is going to be relying heavily on young, cost controlled players for a lot of the team's talent.
It's kind of obvious that having a lot of relatively cheap talent (supplemented by only a few expensive veterans) is the only way to go.
“only way to go”….if you’re cheap and narrowminded.
CorneliusWolfe wrote: ↑02 Aug 2026 10:44 am
Before the recent stall, our 1-4 in the lineup was amongst the most productive in MLB. Our rotation has 3-5 solidified with McGreevy, Pallante, and Leahy. We have a closer near the top in saves and a great setup man in Soriano and another promising in in Graceffo. Gastelum has been taking his lumps but did earn his promotion. Baez is on his way along with Cintje and Liam Doyle. We have two young stars in JJ and Walker.
Is that not enough young talent to work with? If we keep waiting, the young talent we current have is going to be deep in arbitration and reaching free agency and will be lost. The time to shift to a winning mentality is this offseason. The stars will NEVER perfectly align. Keep waiting and making cherry picked metric based excuses and this team will continue to bottom feed.
Worst to first isn’t happening. Incremental success is more sensible. To think we’re just going to jump straight from non-playoff bottom feeder to WS winner is ridiculous.
No, it's not.
Just having a 1-4 in your lineup isn't enough.
And the Cardinals are, at least, having developed 1-2 young, front of rotation SPs short of being ready to compete.
They need to develop and get Doyle, Franklin, Cijinte, R. Rodriguez, Baez, etc. to the majors not just be "on the way."
And you have to keep the young talent you have developed (Wetherholt, etc.) from being "lost" by aggressively signing them to team friendly long term extensions so that you keep them through their prime seasons.
And, yes, it all takes time. Houston went through three 100+ loss seasons (2011-2013) before they rebuilt, then started spending again, and won. Atlanta went through three 90+ loss seasons (2015-2017) before they rebuilt, then started spending again, and won.
If Cardinals fans can stand just being a sub-.500 team for two or three years, maybe they need to toughen up a bit like Astros and Braves fans.
And you think all of this is going to happen all within the same timeframe? Why can’t we sign a good starter as we wait for the others? Quite
possible both Doyle and Cintje fail, or at least don’t live up to FOTR standard. What then? Back at square one.
Why can’t we buy a bat or two? Maybe a top tier and a mid tier? No one will stop Baez or Raniel from carving out a role if they force the issue. We could always trade someone away if there’s that bad of a logjam. If Bloom’s developmental system is so magical, let them bask in its glory another year to ensure success and less growing pains. You act like we have nothing right now. If that’s the case, the plan has already proven to be completely ineffective.
You must really think Bloom is a genius and knows something everyone else doesn’t.
They don't have "nothing," but they are clearly far short still of having enough.
And, if you know you are far short of having enough, you don't go out now and add older, expensive veterans to it just to fall short - because that is how you end up with 2025 Nolan Arenado on your roster instead of 2021/2022 Nolan Arenado when you DO have enough and ARE ready to compete.
Keep the books clean of big contracts that will likely be bad in 3-4 years when you aren't ready to compete now anyway.
When you prospect and metric guys run out of answers you always bring up Nolan Arenado. What about these guys, who their teams followed your master plan of getting prearb team friendly extensions? Are they not more relevant examples?:
Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays, 11 years, $182M
Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates, 8yr $70M
Kristian Campbell, 8 years, $60M
Luis Robert Jr. 6 years, $50M
Paul DeJong, 6 years, $26M
Eloy Jiménez, 6 years, $43M
Fernando Tatís Jr. 14 years, $340M (he was prearb)
A bunch of “safe-bets” on this list that were projected to be 2-3 fWAR and then some. Every one was a mistake.Your plan is not bullet proof, no matter how passionately you believe in the metrics.
Once the CBA dust settles the Cards need to spend aggressively to supplement their draft and development efforts and up their game in international scouting too, otherwise they are not serious about winning.
No plan is "bullet proof." Unless you are the Dodgers and can implement their plan.
And - yes - everyone agrees that the Cardinals need to be much better at identifying and developing talented players than they have been for the last decade. They have to be good at knowing who to sign long term, who to go year-to-year with, who to trade, etc.
Any team is going to make some mistake with the evaluation of their prospects - that is unavoidable in the baseball business. But it is much easier to absorb a $5 or $10 million AAV "miss" on a young player who you signed aggressively than a $25 or $30 million AAV "miss" on an expensive veteran.
Whole lot of misses that exceed 5-10M AAV on the list I provided, especially if you’re trying to build the majority of your team using that model. But we’ll just move past all that I guess. I don’t see why it’s so hard to accept that 1. It takes an all encompassing approach to build a winner and 2. You can’t keep waiting expecting every star in the sky to align. Take the successes you gain and build on them. The time has come to engage the other available mechanisms. We’re not an expansion team in the first couple of seasons.
I've never once said that it DIDN'T take an "all encompassing approach to build a winner."
I have repeatedly said that the Cardinals will eventually have to spend back to their historic levels (around 10th to 15th in MLB in payroll).
But eventually is not now, and it is almost certainly not this coming offseason.
If the development of the necessary young core of players continues as expected, they are probably looking to be back in a position to add ML players from outside the organization after the 2027 season - which is why 2028 is the most probable point at which they will be "competing" again.
Again, Houston went through three straight 100+ loss seasons and Atlanta went through three straight 90+ loss seasons before they were ready to compete again.
The Cardinals haven't even finished two straight 80+ loss seasons yet. This isn't some kind of epic suffering that Cardinals fans are going through.
They were already competing and as Melville pointed out, they derailed their own success out a stubbornly being unwilling to adjust. If this offseason is not the right time, it’s only because they made it that way. When the rebuild model is prioritized over the actual rebuild there will be persistent setbacks. And the answer will always be to wait it out. Just a different type of “reset” which still reeks of the Mozeliak mindset and poor leadership.
They weren't really competing. The start they got off to was a mirage. They were 21-14 through May 4. They've been 33-43 since.
Their run differential (-20), expected W-L (53-58), team fWAR (19.1, on pace for 27.8 - which means 75-87 at the end of the season or 52-59 now), etc. all says that this "regression to the mean" should have been expected all along.
If this is a 75 win talent team, you are talking another $120-$150 million (at FA rates) just to make them a plausible 90 win talent team. And that's likely the bare minimum to give them any chance against teams like the Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Brewers, Cubs, etc.
The Cardinals have been a nice story this year, and have made progress at rebuilding, but they were never actually in any position to compete with the best teams in MLB this season.
Mirages are things that appeared to happen but didn’t. Their actual real life record said otherwise. They were what their record said they were. Cards also beat several top teams to include the vaunted Dodgers and Braves.
For someone who is all about the tangible…why would you disregard W/L record? That’s as tangible as it gets.
Which is now 55-57 and more representative of this team's talent level.
Oh, so now it matters, ok. Of course this was after they took the fate out of the players hands and made winning secondary. You are the kind of fan only a billionaire owner could love. And free PR too.
And the Cardinals are, at least, having developed 1-2 young, front of rotation SPs short of being ready to compete.
They need to develop and get Doyle, Franklin, Cijinte, R. Rodriguez, Baez, etc. to the majors not just be "on the way."
And you have to keep the young talent you have developed (Wetherholt, etc.) from being "lost" by aggressively signing them to team friendly long term extensions so that you keep them through their prime seasons.
And, yes, it all takes time. Houston went through three 100+ loss seasons (2011-2013) before they rebuilt, then started spending again, and won. Atlanta went through three 90+ loss seasons (2015-2017) before they rebuilt, then started spending again, and won.
If Cardinals fans can stand just being a sub-.500 team for two or three years, maybe they need to toughen up a bit like Astros and Braves fans.
And you think all of this is going to happen all within the same timeframe? Why can’t we sign a good starter as we wait for the others? Quite
possible both Doyle and Cintje fail, or at least don’t live up to FOTR standard. What then? Back at square one.
Why can’t we buy a bat or two? Maybe a top tier and a mid tier? No one will stop Baez or Raniel from carving out a role if they force the issue. We could always trade someone away if there’s that bad of a logjam. If Bloom’s developmental system is so magical, let them bask in its glory another year to ensure success and less growing pains. You act like we have nothing right now. If that’s the case, the plan has already proven to be completely ineffective.
You must really think Bloom is a genius and knows something everyone else doesn’t.
They don't have "nothing," but they are clearly far short still of having enough.
And, if you know you are far short of having enough, you don't go out now and add older, expensive veterans to it just to fall short - because that is how you end up with 2025 Nolan Arenado on your roster instead of 2021/2022 Nolan Arenado when you DO have enough and ARE ready to compete.
Keep the books clean of big contracts that will likely be bad in 3-4 years when you aren't ready to compete now anyway.
When you prospect and metric guys run out of answers you always bring up Nolan Arenado. What about these guys, who their teams followed your master plan of getting prearb team friendly extensions? Are they not more relevant examples?:
Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays, 11 years, $182M
Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates, 8yr $70M
Kristian Campbell, 8 years, $60M
Luis Robert Jr. 6 years, $50M
Paul DeJong, 6 years, $26M
Eloy Jiménez, 6 years, $43M
Fernando Tatís Jr. 14 years, $340M (he was prearb)
A bunch of “safe-bets” on this list that were projected to be 2-3 fWAR and then some. Every one was a mistake.Your plan is not bullet proof, no matter how passionately you believe in the metrics.
Once the CBA dust settles the Cards need to spend aggressively to supplement their draft and development efforts and up their game in international scouting too, otherwise they are not serious about winning.
No plan is "bullet proof." Unless you are the Dodgers and can implement their plan.
And - yes - everyone agrees that the Cardinals need to be much better at identifying and developing talented players than they have been for the last decade. They have to be good at knowing who to sign long term, who to go year-to-year with, who to trade, etc.
Any team is going to make some mistake with the evaluation of their prospects - that is unavoidable in the baseball business. But it is much easier to absorb a $5 or $10 million AAV "miss" on a young player who you signed aggressively than a $25 or $30 million AAV "miss" on an expensive veteran.
Whole lot of misses that exceed 5-10M AAV on the list I provided, especially if you’re trying to build the majority of your team using that model. But we’ll just move past all that I guess. I don’t see why it’s so hard to accept that 1. It takes an all encompassing approach to build a winner and 2. You can’t keep waiting expecting every star in the sky to align. Take the successes you gain and build on them. The time has come to engage the other available mechanisms. We’re not an expansion team in the first couple of seasons.
I've never once said that it DIDN'T take an "all encompassing approach to build a winner."
I have repeatedly said that the Cardinals will eventually have to spend back to their historic levels (around 10th to 15th in MLB in payroll).
But eventually is not now, and it is almost certainly not this coming offseason.
If the development of the necessary young core of players continues as expected, they are probably looking to be back in a position to add ML players from outside the organization after the 2027 season - which is why 2028 is the most probable point at which they will be "competing" again.
Again, Houston went through three straight 100+ loss seasons and Atlanta went through three straight 90+ loss seasons before they were ready to compete again.
The Cardinals haven't even finished two straight 80+ loss seasons yet. This isn't some kind of epic suffering that Cardinals fans are going through.
They were already competing and as Melville pointed out, they derailed their own success out a stubbornly being unwilling to adjust. If this offseason is not the right time, it’s only because they made it that way. When the rebuild model is prioritized over the actual rebuild there will be persistent setbacks. And the answer will always be to wait it out. Just a different type of “reset” which still reeks of the Mozeliak mindset and poor leadership.
They weren't really competing. The start they got off to was a mirage. They were 21-14 through May 4. They've been 33-43 since.
Their run differential (-20), expected W-L (53-58), team fWAR (19.1, on pace for 27.8 - which means 75-87 at the end of the season or 52-59 now), etc. all says that this "regression to the mean" should have been expected all along.
If this is a 75 win talent team, you are talking another $120-$150 million (at FA rates) just to make them a plausible 90 win talent team. And that's likely the bare minimum to give them any chance against teams like the Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Brewers, Cubs, etc.
The Cardinals have been a nice story this year, and have made progress at rebuilding, but they were never actually in any position to compete with the best teams in MLB this season.
Mirages are things that appeared to happen but didn’t. Their actual real life record said otherwise. They were what their record said they were. Cards also beat several top teams to include the vaunted Dodgers and Braves.
For someone who is all about the tangible…why would you disregard W/L record? That’s as tangible as it gets.
Which is now 55-57 and more representative of this team's talent level.
Oh, so now it matters, ok. Of course this was after they took the fate out of the players hands and made winning secondary. You are the kind of fan only a billionaire owner could love. And free PR too.
Yeah, your record 110 games into the season means a lot more than your record 35 games into the season. The bigger the sample size, the better the representation.
Goldfan wrote: ↑02 Aug 2026 08:45 am
Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.
Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team.
Agreed. I think depending on prospects for the core of your team is a fool's errand. You get premium talent by signing or trading for it and then you fill in with the young guys in the minors. Maybe you develop a star every now and then.
Yea depending on yadi and pujols who were prospects rhat formed the core was dumb lol
Congratulations Yea internal core you build around good job you’re learning. The cardinals had no legitimate core to build around going into this season so yea dumb to spend when you have no core. Walker and JJ are a core you can start building around
I'm late to this thread, didn't read it all...but as to the OP ....why is Drew Rom listed? Only one idiot ever mentioned him and pushed him as a prospect...he was banned recently.
Rom and Promise Land ...that was an oxymoron when we got him, and still is today.
as to the rest.... we've led you to water about what a rebuild entails. You refuse to drink.
Goldfan wrote: ↑02 Aug 2026 08:45 am
Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.
Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team.
Agreed. I think depending on prospects for the core of your team is a fool's errand. You get premium talent by signing or trading for it and then you fill in with the young guys in the minors. Maybe you develop a star every now and then.
Yea depending on yadi and pujols who were prospects rhat formed the core was dumb lol
Congratulations Yea internal core you build around good job you’re learning. The cardinals had no legitimate core to build around going into this season so yea dumb to spend when you have no core. Walker and JJ are a core you can start building around
I’ll never forget the 2011’s great double play duo of Furcal and Theriot. Lol.
