Jackson Holliday

[2ninr]

Joshua Baez would be the logical prospect I think the Cards would offer if they were seriously interested. Cards need pitching, so don't think they'd consider that, although with Doyle maybe it'd be another logical thought. Both Baez (contact issues) and Doyle (secondary pitches) have major concerns, so pick one of them as the centerpiece in a Holliday swap.
Last I saw, Holliday's BTV was in the high +20's, last I saw Baez's was in the low 20's, and don't know where Doyle's is currently at.

I just think there's too much risk in trading any of these players. It's fun to talk about but swapping top organizational prospects rarely happens unless elite major league talent is coming back. Herrera isn't it.

Flaherty once upon a time had a sky high BTV, then slid down the hill.
Carlson had a great trade value, then went flop.
Alex Reyes had a sky high value, then injuries.
Gorman had a very good trade value, then another flop.
Taveras had a great BTV while in milb.
O'Neil had a +30 BTV even after some injuries, then flop.
C. Martinez had good value, then regression.

Even w/o the benefit of hindsight, some of these players had a red flag or two before their rapid erosion in value. Heck, Crooks had a +16 BTV when he was 1st called up, now it's in the +6's. Like Gorman, contact issues often get exposed at the show. Think Baez here. Great power potential for sure, which gets noticed, but we're in real time, so we don't know how it plays out.
There's risk no matter what the Cards decide, but trading Baez for Holliday as the centerpieces would reduce the overall risk imo. Holliday has already gone thru the transition and come out the other side looking like he'll be ok, and could fit in a needed infield position. Baez is still a shiny exciting prospect.
Idk, don't think either team bites here either, just mainly airing thoughts.

I don't know. In my mind when I hear these types of trade ideas I go back to a certain time when some beat writer posed a Taveras-Profar trade scenario, and then it became a discussion around Cardinal fanbase like it was an immenint possibility.

Holliday is in the big leagues, but ultimately you'd be still acquiring him based on his prospect pedigree hoping he reaches a consensus potential that he hasn't quite grasped at the big league level. Sure he looks like he's showing signs. Maybe he would become that 300 20+ hr 100+ rbi hitter. To me that's almost the same likelihood of Baez one day hitting 35 homers in the big leagues and playing above average RF defense. Simply because neither have happened yet. Holliday could just as easily continue on as a .260/.360/.430 type of guy with good obp with limited power. We have one poster in the thread saying if we get Holliday and then bring his dad along, maybe his dad can fix him. Does that sound right, trading a top prospect (Baez) for a player who's dad needs to come along to fix him. That tells you Holliday is still ultimately unproven.

In the Taveras-Profar discussions I just couldn't rationalize why people were even discussing it like it's something a front office would do. To me, a front office making a prospect for prospect deal like that would have been about on the same level as the fans who argue why didn't we draft Mike Trout instead of Shelby Miller. There's a certain point where you have to trust the way you valued the player when you drafted/signed them, and stand by your evaluation as they progress in the minors the way Baez and Rodriguez are. No need to get cute now.

I know Baez-Holliday wouldn't be the the same example because Holliday is in the bigs already. But to me there's just a reason why that type of trade doesn't happen often. Hollidays BTV has dropped since his debut I'm sure. So the O's are kind of a similar situation to where we were with Walker in 2024-25. They kind of have to roll with him and hope he reaches his potential imo. On our end, Holliday Would be a player with less years of control. If he did breakout with us, now you're over a barrel like we are now with Walker. Do we extend him? Turn around and trade him too? Maybe a particularly nimble front office can maintain a long window of success while continuing to make deals involving your own breakout players, but I don't know. I think the goal should remain to have as many high upside prospects as we can who fit into a long window. Making these deals for Holliday, Rutschmann, (or I'll put the Abrams idea in this category) aren't really consistent with that plan. Now all of a sudden you risk turning it into a 2-3 year window. That's how the Padres got to where they are.

I'll add many of the cases of STL prospects quickly losing their value happened under Mozeliak. I do believe we are already seeing a better development system under Bloom that can lead to a higher success rate.

Good take. I think I became adverse to trading prospects under Mo. You kind of validate that. However, when you talk about mitigating an issue with a player like Baez by trading him for a lesser risk, that becomes tempting. But when he's up here dropping bombs, I will be happy we didn't trade him.

[JDW]

So just an update with Holliday's latest BTV, which has rose to +33.7 from I think +28 a week or so ago, I assume b/c of his offensive rebound lately.
I haven't seen Baez's BTV lately, and also share the excitement of what he might do in STL once called up, but also know it can go either way.
Don't think we have to worry much he gets traded before this years deadline. I'd be shocked.

[2ninr]

Seriously-I think Gorman has tainted how I view these power prospects.

[JDW]

Seriously-I think Gorman has tainted how I view these power prospects.

Yeah, especially after he showed early promise at the show. Then although not a power prospect, Carlson was close to establishing himself in MLB and be maybe a 20 HR guy, then what happened? The mental part of the game is huge. I do think Baez is well grounded, but wouldn't have doubted Gorman's or Carlson's mental framework till their slides became near freefall.

[Futuregm2]

Seriously-I think Gorman has tainted how I view these power prospects.

Thing about Baez is he's more than just power, which Gorman never was. Baez has the speed and athletic ability to make a difference. I've been big on not rushing him but it has nothing to do with not believing he could be a good MLB player still.

[2ninr]

Seriously-I think Gorman has tainted how I view these power prospects.

Thing about Baez is he's more than just power, which Gorman never was. Baez has the speed and athletic ability to make a difference. I've been big on not rushing him but it has nothing to do with not believing he could be a good MLB player still.

My concern with Baez is 100% about the whiff and strikeout rate @ Memphis. I have nightmares about Gorman with that blank look as he walked back to the bench time and again. But you are right- Baez has elite arm talent and should be a good corner outfielder. But his k rate isn’t going to improve by moving him to StLouis.

[JuanAgosto]

Would like to see Bloom acquire this kid if the ask isn't outrageous. Put him at 3b.

[CorneliusWolfe]

Seriously-I think Gorman has tainted how I view these power prospects.

Absolutely, especially when they come with those high strikeout rates. Those guys fail a lot more than they evolve.

[2ninr]

Would like to see Bloom acquire this kid if the ask isn't outrageous. Put him at 3b.

What is outrageous?

[JuanAgosto]

Would like to see Bloom acquire this kid if the ask isn't outrageous. Put him at 3b.

What is outrageous?

Great question. Obvious answers are Wetherholt and Walker. But I would include Bernal, Rodriguez, Doyle, and Matthews to the list.

[2ninr]

Would like to see Bloom acquire this kid if the ask isn't outrageous. Put him at 3b.

What is outrageous?

Great question. Obvious answers are Wetherholt and Walker. But I would include Bernal, Rodriguez, Doyle, and Matthews to the list.

That's what it would take. At least. We were just having a discussion. I don't think Baez gets it done. So yes, it's outrageous.

[JuanAgosto]

Would like to see Bloom acquire this kid if the ask isn't outrageous. Put him at 3b.

What is outrageous?

Great question. Obvious answers are Wetherholt and Walker. But I would include Bernal, Rodriguez, Doyle, and Matthews to the list.

That's what it would take. At least. We were just having a discussion. I don't think Baez gets it done. So yes, it's outrageous.

What do you consider a fair & doable trade?

[2ninr]

Would like to see Bloom acquire this kid if the ask isn't outrageous. Put him at 3b.

What is outrageous?

Great question. Obvious answers are Wetherholt and Walker. But I would include Bernal, Rodriguez, Doyle, and Matthews to the list.

That's what it would take. At least. We were just having a discussion. I don't think Baez gets it done. So yes, it's outrageous.

What do you consider a fair & doable trade?

I don't think there's a trade to be made there. It's just talk. That was part of the discussion. Teams are really hesitant to trade their organizational crown jewels. It's like saying we were wrong about this guy before we actually know we were wrong. Holiday may become a hof player. Baez might hit 500 hrs. Gotta know when to hold em know when to fold em. Can't fold before you've even seen your hand. But it's fun musing about it.

[Cardinals4Life]

Would like to see Bloom acquire this kid if the ask isn't outrageous. Put him at 3b.

What is outrageous?

Great question. Obvious answers are Wetherholt and Walker. But I would include Bernal, Rodriguez, Doyle, and Matthews to the list.

That's what it would take. At least. We were just having a discussion. I don't think Baez gets it done. So yes, it's outrageous.

What do you consider a fair & doable trade?

I don't think there's a trade to be made there. It's just talk. That was part of the discussion. Teams are really hesitant to trade their organizational crown jewels. It's like saying we were wrong about this guy before we actually know we were wrong. Holiday may become a hof player. Baez might hit 500 hrs. Gotta know when to hold em know when to fold em. Can't fold before you've even seen your hand. But it's fun musing about it.

Would you trade Bernal and say a Lin-type pitcher?

[2ninr]

Would like to see Bloom acquire this kid if the ask isn't outrageous. Put him at 3b.

What is outrageous?

Great question. Obvious answers are Wetherholt and Walker. But I would include Bernal, Rodriguez, Doyle, and Matthews to the list.

That's what it would take. At least. We were just having a discussion. I don't think Baez gets it done. So yes, it's outrageous.

What do you consider a fair & doable trade?

I don't think there's a trade to be made there. It's just talk. That was part of the discussion. Teams are really hesitant to trade their organizational crown jewels. It's like saying we were wrong about this guy before we actually know we were wrong. Holiday may become a hof player. Baez might hit 500 hrs. Gotta know when to hold em know when to fold em. Can't fold before you've even seen your hand. But it's fun musing about it.

Would you trade Bernal and say a Lin-type pitcher?

That wouldn't be near enough. It's not even worth talking about. Baltimore is fishing.

[JuanAgosto]

Would like to see Bloom acquire this kid if the ask isn't outrageous. Put him at 3b.

What is outrageous?

Great question. Obvious answers are Wetherholt and Walker. But I would include Bernal, Rodriguez, Doyle, and Matthews to the list.

That's what it would take. At least. We were just having a discussion. I don't think Baez gets it done. So yes, it's outrageous.

What do you consider a fair & doable trade?

I don't think there's a trade to be made there. It's just talk. That was part of the discussion. Teams are really hesitant to trade their organizational crown jewels. It's like saying we were wrong about this guy before we actually know we were wrong. Holiday may become a hof player. Baez might hit 500 hrs. Gotta know when to hold em know when to fold em. Can't fold before you've even seen your hand. But it's fun musing about it.

Lot of fun to talk about.