Emerson Hancock for Hererra?

[imetsatchelpaige]

Just using BTV as a guide. Hancock's is around +24M while Herrera's is +15.4M.
Hoping the Cards value Herrera about double what BTV shows, to force other teams to either significantly overpay for him or the Cards keep him.

Yeah, $15M in surplus value seems low for Herrera, and I certainly wouldn't be trading him at that valuation. It varies year to year, but typically a "win" or one WAR is worth $8-10M. Herrera is making the league minimum this year and is projected for about 1.0 WAR over the rest of the season, so that's $8-10M in surplus value right there. He has three arb seasons (assuming this doesn't change in the new CBA) remaining which will come at greatly discounted salaries. I can't imagine him not exceeding his salary by only $5-7M after this year. Even if he gets $5M in arb1, he'll be projected for at least 2 WAR next year I would assume, that's $10-15M in surplus value, and then he still has two more arb seasons after that.

Hancock is projected for 0.3 fWAR the rest of the season and by ZiPS projected to be worth about 1 WAR each of the next two years (2027 will be league minimum, and then three arb seasons, again subject to the new CBA not changing this). I think those projections were from before this season and he's on pace for a 2 fWAR season. Not saying Hancock doesn't have value, he does, more so due to his years of team control, than performance to date.

Edit: Let's make this simpler. In the past 2 and 2/3 seasons (since the start of 2024) Herrera has produced 5.9 fWAR in 1192 PAs. He's at 481 PAs this year, tracking for another 200-240 PAs to put him well over 600 PAs on the year (close to 700 PAs). He has 3 and 1/3 seasons remaining, if he produces at the same rate as he has since 2024 began he would be expected to produce roughly 7.5 fWAR through the rest of his team control. At $8M per win that's $60M in value, minus what he will earn in that time, and you get his surplus value. And this ignores him getting more playing time via DH this year. If he gets 200 more PAs this year and 600 a year for the next three years that's 2,000 PAs and closer to 10 WAR produced (maintaining current levels), $80M in value.

Great analysis.

[Melville]

Seattle is stocked with pitchers and there are reports (ESPN/MLB) that say this could happen.
Thoughts?

Every team in MLB would trade Herrera for Hancock in a heartbeat.

[Talkin' Baseball]

Seattle is stocked with pitchers and there are reports (ESPN/MLB) that say this could happen.
Thoughts?

Every team in MLB would trade Herrera for Hancock in a heartbeat.

Doubtful.

[RunSup]

Hancock is not enough for Herrera. RH hitters are at a premium. Catching ability too.

I'd go look for the best 3B prospect or one of the Dodger outfielders in a Herrera trade. Add in to the package as needed.

[rockondlouie]

Seattle is stocked with pitchers and there are reports (ESPN/MLB) that say this could happen.
Thoughts?

Every team in MLB would trade Herrera for Hancock in a heartbeat.

Doubtful.

Herrera's a career 120+ wRC+ hitter w/three years of control, this season away from that hitter un-friendly Busch Stadium he's a sterling 136 wRC+.

I'm not trading him for some one year wonder starter, neither would almost all of the POBO/GM's in MLB (Mo being the exception ).

[WaltsSuccessor]

Seattle is stocked with pitchers and there are reports (ESPN/MLB) that say this could happen.
Thoughts?

Every team in MLB would trade Herrera for Hancock in a heartbeat.

Doubtful.

Herrera's a career 120+ wRC+ hitter w/three years of control, this season away from that hitter un-friendly Busch Stadium he's a sterling 136 wRC+.

I'm not trading him for some one year wonder starter, neither would almost all of the POBO/GM's in MLB (Mo being the exception ).

I wouldn't either, but I'll say Hancock characterized as a one year wonder is a bit harsh. He's a former 1st round pick and consensus top 100 prospect. Not exactly an out of the blue performance. He always had the pedigree/talent. Not unusual for a SP to take a couple seasons to get their footing.

Rock - am I totally out of bounds on this idea I posted earlier?

Be curious how it would line up on BTV if it something like...

Cards take on all of Castillo's contract + Ryan Sloan for Herrera + somebody (Romero, BP arm, whatever).

I'm sure Seattle would still say no. But getting out of Castillo's contract while still keeping Hancock and Kade Anderson would leave them still pretty rich in SP talent/depth. Would think freeing up that payroll would allow them to add something valuable in FA for 2027 and beyond to extend their window. Or extend Kirby, Miller, or Woo with the same goal.

[Talkin' Baseball]

Forget Seattle. They won't pay the freight. Forget the Yankees. They might sincerely want IH, but they only have 1-2 prospects that are interesting. Most of their farm is fool's gold.

I didn't have on my radar to trade Herrera, but I'm not opposed. In my opinion, the best teams to talk to are the Dodgers and the Red Sox. They have enough different prospects that are interesting that some combination should be agreeable. Both teams also have the will to make such a deal. The Mariners do not.

[Talkin' Baseball]

Seattle is stocked with pitchers and there are reports (ESPN/MLB) that say this could happen.
Thoughts?

Every team in MLB would trade Herrera for Hancock in a heartbeat.

Doubtful.

Herrera's a career 120+ wRC+ hitter w/three years of control, this season away from that hitter un-friendly Busch Stadium he's a sterling 136 wRC+.

I'm not trading him for some one year wonder starter, neither would almost all of the POBO/GM's in MLB (Mo being the exception ).

I wouldn't either, but I'll say Hancock characterized as a one year wonder is a bit harsh. He's a former 1st round pick and consensus top 100 prospect. Not exactly an out of the blue performance. He always had the pedigree/talent. Not unusual for a SP to take a couple seasons to get their footing.

Rock - am I totally out of bounds on this idea I posted earlier?

Be curious how it would line up on BTV if it something like...

Cards take on all of Castillo's contract + Ryan Sloan for Herrera + somebody (Romero, BP arm, whatever).

I'm sure Seattle would still say no. But getting out of Castillo's contract while still keeping Hancock and Kade Anderson would leave them still pretty rich in SP talent/depth. Would think freeing up that payroll would allow them to add something valuable in FA for 2027 and beyond to extend their window. Or extend Kirby, Miller, or Woo with the same goal.

They aren't trading Sloan or Anderson- for anyone.

[Ozziesfan41]

I like Herrera and burly a lot especially Herrera but listen on both. Herrera will be a great hitter with some pop but he’s a DH and part time catcher and while he’s the cardinals best catcher at handling pitchers he can’t throw out runners so for a massive haul trade him. Burly a great hitter but he’s can be completely neutralized by left handers with a career .222 .256 .572 ops and in the post season it will be detrimental to have one of your main hitters become one of your worst hitters by bringing in a lefty. So I like both a lot but they both have draw backs that I think should make them available if you get a haul but it should definitely be they need to be blown away by the offer

[WaltsSuccessor]

Seattle is stocked with pitchers and there are reports (ESPN/MLB) that say this could happen.
Thoughts?

Every team in MLB would trade Herrera for Hancock in a heartbeat.

Doubtful.

Herrera's a career 120+ wRC+ hitter w/three years of control, this season away from that hitter un-friendly Busch Stadium he's a sterling 136 wRC+.

I'm not trading him for some one year wonder starter, neither would almost all of the POBO/GM's in MLB (Mo being the exception ).

I wouldn't either, but I'll say Hancock characterized as a one year wonder is a bit harsh. He's a former 1st round pick and consensus top 100 prospect. Not exactly an out of the blue performance. He always had the pedigree/talent. Not unusual for a SP to take a couple seasons to get their footing.

Rock - am I totally out of bounds on this idea I posted earlier?

Be curious how it would line up on BTV if it something like...

Cards take on all of Castillo's contract + Ryan Sloan for Herrera + somebody (Romero, BP arm, whatever).

I'm sure Seattle would still say no. But getting out of Castillo's contract while still keeping Hancock and Kade Anderson would leave them still pretty rich in SP talent/depth. Would think freeing up that payroll would allow them to add something valuable in FA for 2027 and beyond to extend their window. Or extend Kirby, Miller, or Woo with the same goal.

They aren't trading Sloan or Anderson- for anyone.

I'm sure you're right. But just to push back as a devil's advocate - here's their rotation situation:
1. Castillo - owed $22.75m next year, then a $5m buyout on 2028.
2. Gilbert - Arb controlled through 2027.
3. Kirby - Arb controlled through 2028.
4. Miller - Arb controlled through 2029.
5. Woo - Arb controlled through 2029.
6. Hancock - Arb controlled through 2030.
7. Evans - Arb controlled through 2031.

They are a cash strapped team so getting out of Castillo's contract isn't a small victory to them. They're already running a 6 deep rotation right now with Logan Evans set to return next season from injury. Would still leave Anderson (who is a year closer to MLB, projected) ready to fill in for injury or if Gilbert leaves via FA.

Maybe we'd have to add a minor league piece or two. They need RH offense. They're about to see Arozarena walk too. Maybe Baez would be of interest.

[Melville]

Seattle is stocked with pitchers and there are reports (ESPN/MLB) that say this could happen.
Thoughts?

Every team in MLB would trade Herrera for Hancock in a heartbeat.

Doubtful.

Herrera's a career 120+ wRC+ hitter w/three years of control, this season away from that hitter un-friendly Busch Stadium he's a sterling 136 wRC+.

I'm not trading him for some one year wonder starter, neither would almost all of the POBO/GM's in MLB (Mo being the exception ).

4 years of control for a proven mid-rotation starter is far more valuable than 3 years of control for a DH only hitter with limited power who is prone to extreme streakiness.

[FrankTheTank]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/494 ... aez-holmes

10. Seattle Mariners trade Emerson Hancock to St. Louis Cardinals
The Mariners have six starters, with Kade Anderson more than ready for a big league call-up, so it's likely they trade one of them, and Hancock's name has popped up most often. That's in part because he has arguably been their best starter, but also because Luis Castillo's contract will make him difficult to trade and George Kirby's mediocre season has decreased his trade value.
Hancock is under team control through 2030 and the Mariners will likely want a major league bat in return. Ivan Herrera is a possible match here if the Mariners see value in a full-time DH (they should) and occasional backup catcher. The Cardinals have plenty of catching depth but need pitching help. These two teams made the Brendan Donovan trade this past offseason, so they've worked together before -- and this trade would help both in the present and beyond.

His #1 move -

1. Tigers trade Tarik Skubal to Atlanta Braves

[Melville]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/494 ... aez-holmes

10. Seattle Mariners trade Emerson Hancock to St. Louis Cardinals
The Mariners have six starters, with Kade Anderson more than ready for a big league call-up, so it's likely they trade one of them, and Hancock's name has popped up most often. That's in part because he has arguably been their best starter, but also because Luis Castillo's contract will make him difficult to trade and George Kirby's mediocre season has decreased his trade value.
Hancock is under team control through 2030 and the Mariners will likely want a major league bat in return. Ivan Herrera is a possible match here if the Mariners see value in a full-time DH (they should) and occasional backup catcher. The Cardinals have plenty of catching depth but need pitching help. These two teams made the Brendan Donovan trade this past offseason, so they've worked together before -- and this trade would help both in the present and beyond.

His #1 move -

1. Tigers trade Tarik Skubal to Atlanta Braves

Every POBO in MLB trades Herrera for Hancock ASAP.

[imyourhuckleberry]

If this is even a consideration, I guess the question Bloom would have to answer for himself is, at 28 two months in to next season is 2026 an aberration or has Hancock figured it out and this is who he is going forward?

Controllable thru 2030, I say if Bloom can swing a palatable deal, take the shot.

Pitching, pitching and more pitching.

[Talkin' Baseball]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/494 ... aez-holmes

10. Seattle Mariners trade Emerson Hancock to St. Louis Cardinals
The Mariners have six starters, with Kade Anderson more than ready for a big league call-up, so it's likely they trade one of them, and Hancock's name has popped up most often. That's in part because he has arguably been their best starter, but also because Luis Castillo's contract will make him difficult to trade and George Kirby's mediocre season has decreased his trade value.
Hancock is under team control through 2030 and the Mariners will likely want a major league bat in return. Ivan Herrera is a possible match here if the Mariners see value in a full-time DH (they should) and occasional backup catcher. The Cardinals have plenty of catching depth but need pitching help. These two teams made the Brendan Donovan trade this past offseason, so they've worked together before -- and this trade would help both in the present and beyond.

His #1 move -

1. Tigers trade Tarik Skubal to Atlanta Braves

Every POBO in MLB trades Herrera for Hancock ASAP.

Nah. You're letting your bias steal your objectivity.

[AtillaTheBlue1]

no

no 27 year olds


and if there is a season, that 2030 arb, will be closer to 28. players are closing that gap in this contract