Emerson Hancock for Hererra?

[imetsatchelpaige]

Seattle is stocked with pitchers and there are reports (ESPN/MLB) that say this could happen.
Thoughts?

[OldRed]

Seattle is stocked with pitchers and there are reports (ESPN/MLB) that say this could happen.
Thoughts?

I would think they keep Hererra for DH.

[rockondlouie]

H E L L NO!

Hancock going into his age 28 season and prior to 2026:

37 G
31 GS
4.81 ERA
1.36 WHiP

PASS!

[Jobu's Rum]

I would not, no.

Unless they are throwing in Arroyo which is unlikely

[Cardinals4Life]

Seattle is stocked with pitchers and there are reports (ESPN/MLB) that say this could happen.
Thoughts?

No way! Terrible trade.

[rbirules]

For Crooks or Bernal, plus maybe a lottery ticket? Sure. For Herrera? No, not unless they are adding something pretty appealing.

[bccardsfan]

I would not, no.

Unless they are throwing in Arroyo which is unlikely

I am with you. I would trade IH for a big haul, but not straight up for Hancock.

[WaltsSuccessor]

Be curious how it would line up on BTV if it something like...

Cards take on all of Castillo's contract + Ryan Sloan for Herrera + somebody (Romero, BP arm, whatever).

I'm sure Seattle would still say no. But getting out of Castillo's contract while still keeping Hancock and Kade Anderson would leave them still pretty rich in SP talent/depth. Would think freeing up that payroll would allow them to add something valuable in FA for 2027 and beyond to extend their window. Or extend Kirby, Miller, or Woo with the same goal.

[JDW]

Just using BTV as a guide. Hancock's is around +24M while Herrera's is +15.4M.
Hoping the Cards value Herrera about double what BTV shows, to force other teams to either significantly overpay for him or the Cards keep him.

[zoiks]

Just using BTV as a guide. Hancock's is around +24M while Herrera's is +15.4M.
Hoping the Cards value Herrera about double what BTV shows, to force other teams to either significantly overpay for him or the Cards keep him.

This shows me that BTV still greatly over-inflates player value just for the player being young and on a cheap contract. Hancock has done nothing at the MLB level, while Herrera is an established MLB hitter, who is still rather young. There’s no way the Cardinals would make this trade.

[rbirules]

Just using BTV as a guide. Hancock's is around +24M while Herrera's is +15.4M.
Hoping the Cards value Herrera about double what BTV shows, to force other teams to either significantly overpay for him or the Cards keep him.

Yeah, $15M in surplus value seems low for Herrera, and I certainly wouldn't be trading him at that valuation. It varies year to year, but typically a "win" or one WAR is worth $8-10M. Herrera is making the league minimum this year and is projected for about 1.0 WAR over the rest of the season, so that's $8-10M in surplus value right there. He has three arb seasons (assuming this doesn't change in the new CBA) remaining which will come at greatly discounted salaries. I can't imagine him not exceeding his salary by only $5-7M after this year. Even if he gets $5M in arb1, he'll be projected for at least 2 WAR next year I would assume, that's $10-15M in surplus value, and then he still has two more arb seasons after that.

Hancock is projected for 0.3 fWAR the rest of the season and by ZiPS projected to be worth about 1 WAR each of the next two years (2027 will be league minimum, and then three arb seasons, again subject to the new CBA not changing this). I think those projections were from before this season and he's on pace for a 2 fWAR season. Not saying Hancock doesn't have value, he does, more so due to his years of team control, than performance to date.

Edit: Let's make this simpler. In the past 2 and 2/3 seasons (since the start of 2024) Herrera has produced 5.9 fWAR in 1192 PAs. He's at 481 PAs this year, tracking for another 200-240 PAs to put him well over 600 PAs on the year (close to 700 PAs). He has 3 and 1/3 seasons remaining, if he produces at the same rate as he has since 2024 began he would be expected to produce roughly 7.5 fWAR through the rest of his team control. At $8M per win that's $60M in value, minus what he will earn in that time, and you get his surplus value. And this ignores him getting more playing time via DH this year. If he gets 200 more PAs this year and 600 a year for the next three years that's 2,000 PAs and closer to 10 WAR produced (maintaining current levels), $80M in value.

[rockondlouie]

For Crooks or Bernal, plus maybe a lottery ticket? Sure. For Herrera? No, not unless they are adding something pretty appealing.

BINGO!

I'd take B. Woo for Herrera, of course L. Gilbert

[woofy25]

This would be a classic sell low scenario. It’s the worst season of his career. Maybe he has a strong two months and his value increases

[rbirules]

For Crooks or Bernal, plus maybe a lottery ticket? Sure. For Herrera? No, not unless they are adding something pretty appealing.

BINGO!

I'd take B. Woo for Herrera, of course L. Gilbert

Oh man, was it three (2023) or four (2022) years ago that I really wanted Gilbert in a trade for Noot, Donovan, or Gorman (plus filler)? <sigh>

I still really like Gilbert as a player, but he's a FA after 2027 (if we have a season), I'm not trading three plus years of Herrera for that.

[rockondlouie]

For Crooks or Bernal, plus maybe a lottery ticket? Sure. For Herrera? No, not unless they are adding something pretty appealing.

BINGO!

I'd take B. Woo for Herrera, of course L. Gilbert

Oh man, was it three (2023) or four (2022) years ago that I really wanted Gilbert in a trade for Noot, Donovan, or Gorman (plus filler)? <sigh>

I still really like Gilbert as a player, but he's a FA after 2027 (if we have a season), I'm not trading three plus years of Herrera for that.

Yes it was and I was right there w/you!

I think we tossed many trade proposals back and forth for him centered around those guys.

And as I always I'd caveat dealing Herrera for Gilbert.

There'd have to be solid intel between Bloom and Gilbert's agent that he'd be willing to sign L-T as long as BDWJr paid market value.

[Futuregm2]

Sounds like the asking price on Herrera has been high (good). They are more willing to trade Crooks of the 3 catchers. More willing to deal Crooks than Pages. But Pages probably wouldn’t bring much in value anyways.