Buch to Detroit being proposed

[skilles]

Since we're here and I've been running numbers....

Pavel Buchnevich is 31 years old and has averaged 20.2 goals per season over his career, with a cap hit of 8M for the next 5 years.

The average salary for a consistent 20 goal scorer in the NHL is 4.5M-6.5M.

The average rate of goal decline for an NHL player age 30 and beyond, including how that affects a 20 goal scorer, is as follows

Age 29: -0% 20 goals
Age 30: -20% 16 goals
Age 31: -25% 15 goals (avg salary for 15 goal scorer: 2.5M-4.5M)
Age 32: -30% 14 goals
Age 33: -30% 14 goals
Age 34: -35% 13 goals
Age 35: no data
Age 36: no data

By the data, Buchnevich is already overvalued by 1.5M+. By the end of this season the numbers would suggest to expect 15G or less per season moving forward, which would mean after the 26/27 season you're now paying 3.5M+ PER YEAR over his value contributions and a total 17M+ over the remainder of his contract.

Are there other variables at play? Sure, Buchnevich may perform above and beyond player averages and the decline rates, he could provide intangibles above and beyond his goal contributions, and the salary cap could inflate the value of the average 20G and 15G scorers. That said, this is rapidly depreciating asset that we should find a reasonable path out of.

You can't run average on NHL salaries, its an evolving system and a huge amount of variables

[Harry S Deals]

Since we're here and I've been running numbers....

Pavel Buchnevich is 31 years old and has averaged 20.2 goals per season over his career, with a cap hit of 8M for the next 5 years.

The average salary for a consistent 20 goal scorer in the NHL is 4.5M-6.5M.

The average rate of goal decline for an NHL player age 30 and beyond, including how that affects a 20 goal scorer, is as follows

Age 29: -0% 20 goals
Age 30: -20% 16 goals
Age 31: -25% 15 goals (avg salary for 15 goal scorer: 2.5M-4.5M)
Age 32: -30% 14 goals
Age 33: -30% 14 goals
Age 34: -35% 13 goals
Age 35: no data
Age 36: no data

By the data, Buchnevich is already overvalued by 1.5M+. By the end of this season the numbers would suggest to expect 15G or less per season moving forward, which would mean after the 26/27 season you're now paying 3.5M+ PER YEAR over his value contributions and a total 17M+ over the remainder of his contract.

Are there other variables at play? Sure, Buchnevich may perform above and beyond player averages and the decline rates, he could provide intangibles above and beyond his goal contributions, and the salary cap could inflate the value of the average 20G and 15G scorers. That said, this is rapidly depreciating asset that we should find a reasonable path out of.

You can't run average on NHL salaries, its an evolving system and a huge amount of variables

theres also a decent chance with a legit NHL center Buch scores more than 20 we dont know the trend isnt great but hes gonna be a Blue so we will see

[skilles]

Since we're here and I've been running numbers....

Pavel Buchnevich is 31 years old and has averaged 20.2 goals per season over his career, with a cap hit of 8M for the next 5 years.

The average salary for a consistent 20 goal scorer in the NHL is 4.5M-6.5M.

The average rate of goal decline for an NHL player age 30 and beyond, including how that affects a 20 goal scorer, is as follows

Age 29: -0% 20 goals
Age 30: -20% 16 goals
Age 31: -25% 15 goals (avg salary for 15 goal scorer: 2.5M-4.5M)
Age 32: -30% 14 goals
Age 33: -30% 14 goals
Age 34: -35% 13 goals
Age 35: no data
Age 36: no data

By the data, Buchnevich is already overvalued by 1.5M+. By the end of this season the numbers would suggest to expect 15G or less per season moving forward, which would mean after the 26/27 season you're now paying 3.5M+ PER YEAR over his value contributions and a total 17M+ over the remainder of his contract.

Are there other variables at play? Sure, Buchnevich may perform above and beyond player averages and the decline rates, he could provide intangibles above and beyond his goal contributions, and the salary cap could inflate the value of the average 20G and 15G scorers. That said, this is rapidly depreciating asset that we should find a reasonable path out of.

You can't run average on NHL salaries, its an evolving system and a huge amount of variables

theres also a decent chance with a legit NHL center Buch scores more than 20 we dont know the trend isnt great but hes gonna be a Blue so we will see

Good chance I think, most importantly the addition of a 2c will allow his to actually play his position. Even if he doesn't though we can't run averages with players that signed 6 years ago and/or players on entry level contracts VS our newly signed UFA player.

[SpacemanSpiff]

Although I think Buchnevich is a little overpaid, I don't think he's an anchor.

Second highest ice time per game for penalty killing.

Prior to last season, he put up four successive seasons of 57 or more points, and he was a plus player in all of those seasons.

Tied for third in blocked shots among forwards.

I think in a perfect situation, he's a placeholder for some of the younger guys, so when he's at the fourth or fifth year of his contract, he'll be a third liner, much like Steen was in his career here. And as we saw with others, if someone sees value in him, they'll trade for him.

[skilles]

Buch is going to be our #2 RW and we only have one other top 9 RW and nobody else even close. We need to add RW not subtract

[MrPostman01]

Checking on the "Nygaard"

Name X
Should be: Brandsegg-Nygård (Most be one of those formulas. Some brand eggs minus a Nygaard = ????)
Young? Y
Shoots Right? Y
Swedish? Hit the crossbar.

[Unfathomable]

I enjoy Mike Meyers work for what it is. He puts alot of work into it. One of the better X follows for prospect news etc. He keeps track of all our prospects fairly well.

https://x.com/i/status/2075568205595091210

Doesn't have the sources of a JR but far better content imo on his substack..

[blues2112]

Does anyone actually produce good articles on the Blues anymore?

The media is just so bad now days.

Simple answer is "NO"..........and this is just a rumor made up by a random guy. The guys that write for that site are just fans, not actual journalists.

Are you questioning the journalistic chops of "Andrew W."?!?!!?

(For the record, I rarely address pointlessly speculative hogwash, but saw your comments.)

[BleedingBleu]

Why would the Blues trade Buch for a 5th Round 6’-0” LHD and a 3rd from 2027? Oh… did I mention the genius thinks the Blues should retain 25% of his salary?

[dhsux]

Good Lord I guess he's the new whipping boy and it's not even August!

[UMR-alum-05]

Why would the Blues trade Buch for a 5th Round 6’-0” LHD and a 3rd from 2027? Oh… did I mention the genius thinks the Blues should retain 25% of his salary?

That defender is also 19 years old and in Russia.

It's a ridiculous nonsensical trade proposal.

But for other reasons discussed in here, Buch to Detroit could make sense for both teams.

[BleedingBleu]

Why would the Blues trade Buch for a 5th Round 6’-0” LHD and a 3rd from 2027? Oh… did I mention the genius thinks the Blues should retain 25% of his salary?

That defender is also 19 years old and in Russia.

It's a ridiculous nonsensical trade proposal.

But for other reasons discussed in here, Buch to Detroit could make sense for both teams.

Oh, I’m all ears, but that blogger is a delusional asshat

[UMR-alum-05]

Why would the Blues trade Buch for a 5th Round 6’-0” LHD and a 3rd from 2027? Oh… did I mention the genius thinks the Blues should retain 25% of his salary?

That defender is also 19 years old and in Russia.

It's a ridiculous nonsensical trade proposal.

But for other reasons discussed in here, Buch to Detroit could make sense for both teams.

Oh, I’m all ears, but that blogger is a delusional asshat

The article is like "the trade should probably have a 1st round pick in it, but Detroit probably doesn't want to give the Blues another 1st, and they don't have a 2nd round pick to trade, so the Blues will have to just settle for a 3rd...oh and the Blues should choke on 25% of the salary too."

It's total garbage.

Now, if they want to talk like I was saying, Buch for Nygard as the main pieces in the trade, that could be interesting for both sides.

[Old_Goat]

Just asking...would you suggest to Detroit that they submit to Larkin if he would accept a trade to St. Louis straight-up for Pavel Buchnevich?
Cannot hurt to ask; but more importantly if it went through as such, would you do it?
(Note, I am not interested to hear what else it may take to complete this trade, or if Yzerman would say no, or if Larkin would say no. That is all independent of my quest for current value assessment given the current events.)

[UMR-alum-05]

Just asking...would you suggest to Detroit that they submit to Larkin if he would accept a trade to St. Louis straight-up for Pavel Buchnevich?
Cannot hurt to ask; but more importantly if it went through as such, would you do it?
(Note, I am not interested to hear what else it may take to complete this trade, or if Yzerman would say no, or if Larkin would say no. That is all independent of my quest for current value assessment given the current events.)

Doesn't matter to Larkin what he is traded for. Only matters to him where he's going.

I don't follow your post. Why would Detroit ask Larkin if he's OK being traded for Buchnevich. Larkin has a known four team list that doesn't include the Blues.

[blues2112]

Just asking...would you suggest to Detroit that they submit to Larkin if he would accept a trade to St. Louis straight-up for Pavel Buchnevich?
Cannot hurt to ask; but more importantly if it went through as such, would you do it?
(Note, I am not interested to hear what else it may take to complete this trade, or if Yzerman would say no, or if Larkin would say no. That is all independent of my quest for current value assessment given the current events.)

Doesn't matter to Larkin what he is traded for. Only matters to him where he's going.

I don't follow your post. Why would Detroit ask Larkin if he's OK being traded for Buchnevich. Larkin has a known four team list that doesn't include the Blues.

Why post this crappie in the first place? You copy-and-paste specious links, then criticize responders.I understand that you like the attention, but wow.

To myself: Why respond at all?