Buch to Detroit being proposed

[UMR-alum-05]

https://thehockeywriters.com/suggested- ... red-wings/

If they actually want Buch, I want to figure out how to get Nygaard back

[Harry S Deals]

This is just a supposition from the writer correct?

[UMR-alum-05]

Yes. What is being proposed would never happen. Blues aren't giving up Buch for a 19 year old LHD who is in Russia and a 3rd round pick. Plus retaining salary.

I personally would trade them Buch for Nygaard as the main basis of a trade. Nygaard would fit what we are trying to do perfectly.

Holloway Thomas Snuggerud
McMichael McTavish Nygaard
Stenberg Dvorsky Neighbours
Johnston Suter Berggren

Finley Torpchenko

That's looking like something.

[The Average Gatsby]

I’d be fine with trading Buch. He’s the only highly paid player here that’s actually on a bad contract. But if they aren’t giving us any valuable assets back we shouldn’t have to retain any salary. And I’d be more interested in this trade if we could use his 8 million in cap space on a more productive player. If it’s just a salary dump it seems like an odd move for a team that wants to be competitive this season.

[skilles]

Does anyone actually produce good articles on the Blues anymore?

The media is just so bad now days.

[Harry S Deals]

Thats fine and again Buch's production two years in a row (20 goals) for $8 million isnt that great but losing Buch for a kid who may or may not contribute right away creates another hole. Berggren has never scored 20, Stenberg?
I dont think Buch is going anywhere he may be a good fit on a McTavish line Buch is pretty good in his own end

[Frank Underwood]

Does anyone actually produce good articles on the Blues anymore?

The media is just so bad now days.

Simple answer is "NO"..........and this is just a rumor made up by a random guy. The guys that write for that site are just fans, not actual journalists.

[UMR-alum-05]

Ridiculous article. Just gives those of us who like to analyze something to talk about.

[zoiks]

More trash speculation from a D-tier website. This genius wants the Blues to retain $2m for each of the remaining 5 years of Buch's contract, so $10m total. For that $10m, the writer suggests the Blues would be interested in trading for a former 5th round draft pick undersized Russian defenseman that has little chance of playing in North America.

[Pierre McGuire]

No need for Buch with Yzerman’s Boldy ask….

[Nublues69]

No need for Buch with Yzerman’s Boldy ask….

Thats an insane ask. Matt boldy is amazing./

[UMR-alum-05]

Detroit is loaded with a lot of right hand shots. I could see them wanting a lefty who can score 20.

They got DeBrincat, Arvidsson, Compher, Raymond, Appleton, Kolesar. All right handed shots.

They have very little left shot scoring in their entire forward lineup.

In that regard Buch makes at least some sense for them. Suter would also make some sense for them.

Compher could make some sense for the Blues. Obviously Nygard.

Could be something there in all that.

[WilliamWestcliffe]

Anything within a wide berth of "reasonable" that ejects that Buchnevich contract from our roster would be an urgent and phenomenal move. Forget whether he's worth 8M tomorrow, but that lemon becomes almost inescapable by years 3-5.

I understand this is pure speculation from a trash website, but it does potentially fit for Detroit and their ongoing saga and especially if the Blues are still rumored to be exploring the Nikishin package.

[WilliamWestcliffe]

Since we're here and I've been running numbers....

Pavel Buchnevich is 31 years old and has averaged 20.2 goals per season over his career, with a cap hit of 8M for the next 5 years.

The average salary for a consistent 20 goal scorer in the NHL is 4.5M-6.5M.

The average rate of goal decline for an NHL player age 30 and beyond, including how that affects a 20 goal scorer, is as follows

Age 29: -0% 20 goals
Age 30: -20% 16 goals
Age 31: -25% 15 goals (avg salary for 15 goal scorer: 2.5M-4.5M)
Age 32: -30% 14 goals
Age 33: -30% 14 goals
Age 34: -35% 13 goals
Age 35: no data
Age 36: no data

By the data, Buchnevich is already overvalued by 1.5M+. By the end of this season the numbers would suggest to expect 15G or less per season moving forward, which would mean after the 26/27 season you're now paying 3.5M+ PER YEAR over his value contributions and a total 17M+ over the remainder of his contract.

Are there other variables at play? Sure, Buchnevich may perform above and beyond player averages and the decline rates, he could provide intangibles above and beyond his goal contributions, and the salary cap could inflate the value of the average 20G and 15G scorers. That said, this is rapidly depreciating asset that we should find a reasonable path out of.

[bud white]

No need to move Buch. With the added support across the roster, he'll be able to thrive on this team. He's also incredibly valuable on the PK - value that isn't reflected when playing "moneypuck"

[UMR-alum-05]

They can kill penalties with Torp, Finley, Suter, McMichael, Stenberg if they trade Buch.

I don't see that as a concern.

Need to keep Thomas off the PK. But they still have plenty of viable options.