Ducks match the offer sheet. Carlsson stays.

[skilles]

you're probably looking at maybe 10% possibly 15% of all hockey players that will be able take this gamble to hold off signing and describe it as a reasonable risk

And of those 90-120 players the vast majority will likely not do it

IMO

I agree. The concept is called "risk-adjusted-return."

Additional thoughts on various comments in the thread above...
Beyond what he has or has yet to accomplish so far, Snuggerud has not played a higher-valued/difficult-to-fill position -- Center-man.
Thomas is not the same talent as Carlsson.
That list of highest earners is populated with those having many seasons in the NHL and with very many whom were practically considered "elite" talent right from the early and young start of their NHL careers.
Maybe Verbeek screwed-up? Maybe the Owners were pulling the strings?

Right or wrong I don't see that Verbeek did anything outside the norm here, Philly is who went way outside the norm.

[The Average Gatsby]

Snuggerud going to cost $15 mil per a year from now.

Adios. He's a product of Thomas and Broberg.

Carbonneau could score 40 on that line.

Lol what? This is an absurd thing to say. Snuggerud has a lot of offensive talent beyond his excellent shot.

[The Average Gatsby]

Snuggerud going to cost $15 mil per a year from now.

He would have to put up 90 this year for that.

Come on man.

I'm not saying that isn't possible. But to just say that like it's fact is not quite realistic.

He can pop in 25-30 goals and simply wait for an offer sheet. Maybe we get lucky and get him for $12-13 mil but if you are Snuggerud why wouldn’t you just wait and see. It’s the Wild Wild West out there right now. Our $8 mil per year player is over in St. Louis

Why gamble if you can have guaranteed money?

Sure the possibility is there for a larger pay day, but what if it isn't there? What if his wrist snaps again? Has a sophomore slump?

If the blues go to him with a good respectable offer for a good length such as say 80/8 that's 80 freaking million dollars. Would you say no and take your chances that a team might throw an insane offer at you and that some 4th line goon doesn't elbow smash your face into the glass and you miss 40 games from a concussion?

Way too many variables out of their control when the one variable they can control, guaranteed money and a lot of it, is right there.

We shall see…I’ll be shocked if we get him signed for less than $12 mil per year. I believe he’s going to be the highest paid Blue in history a year from now.

If he scores 30 goals this year you’re 100% right. It’s super important that we have Thomas, Broberg, and Holloway signed to such great contracts.

[skilles]

Snuggerud going to cost $15 mil per a year from now.

He would have to put up 90 this year for that.

Come on man.

I'm not saying that isn't possible. But to just say that like it's fact is not quite realistic.

He can pop in 25-30 goals and simply wait for an offer sheet. Maybe we get lucky and get him for $12-13 mil but if you are Snuggerud why wouldn’t you just wait and see. It’s the Wild Wild West out there right now. Our $8 mil per year player is over in St. Louis

Why gamble if you can have guaranteed money?

Sure the possibility is there for a larger pay day, but what if it isn't there? What if his wrist snaps again? Has a sophomore slump?

If the blues go to him with a good respectable offer for a good length such as say 80/8 that's 80 freaking million dollars. Would you say no and take your chances that a team might throw an insane offer at you and that some 4th line goon doesn't elbow smash your face into the glass and you miss 40 games from a concussion?

Way too many variables out of their control when the one variable they can control, guaranteed money and a lot of it, is right there.

We shall see…I’ll be shocked if we get him signed for less than $12 mil per year. I believe he’s going to be the highest paid Blue in history a year from now.

If he scores 30 goals this year you’re 100% right. It’s super important that we have Thomas, Broberg, and Holloway signed to such great contracts.

I don't think 30 goals is so rare teams are desperate to give up 4 first round picks for it.

[skilles]

Just for the record A 25 year old kid who scored 35 and 37 back to back just got traded for 2 first and a 3rd then signed with the new team for 11 million.

An offer sheet for 12 million would require almost double that asset compensation.

[Unfathomable]

The teams that would be willing to offer sheets a snuggerud in this example would be doing so at numbers that big because they believe he pushes them over the edge.. as to say they are betting the 4 first rds you get are in the bottom 20s...

4 firsts sounds great till you realize what you're actually getting...

[skilles]

The teams that would be willing to offer sheets a snuggerud in this example would be doing so at numbers that big because they believe he pushes them over the edge.. as to say they are betting the 4 first rds you get are in the bottom 20s...

4 firsts sounds great till you realize what you're actually getting...

The point is that much capital gets you very good players without offer sheets. Even A team that is trying to push over the edge those picks become very valuable to them as deadline assets not just at the draft.

Not that it absolutely couldn't happen but Snuggerud is not a player with a high risk of offer sheets. At least not ones we wouldn't easily match.

The biggest risk really is him using an offer sheet to manipulate term

[The Average Gatsby]

Snuggerud going to cost $15 mil per a year from now.

He would have to put up 90 this year for that.

Come on man.

I'm not saying that isn't possible. But to just say that like it's fact is not quite realistic.

He can pop in 25-30 goals and simply wait for an offer sheet. Maybe we get lucky and get him for $12-13 mil but if you are Snuggerud why wouldn’t you just wait and see. It’s the Wild Wild West out there right now. Our $8 mil per year player is over in St. Louis

Why gamble if you can have guaranteed money?

Sure the possibility is there for a larger pay day, but what if it isn't there? What if his wrist snaps again? Has a sophomore slump?

If the blues go to him with a good respectable offer for a good length such as say 80/8 that's 80 freaking million dollars. Would you say no and take your chances that a team might throw an insane offer at you and that some 4th line goon doesn't elbow smash your face into the glass and you miss 40 games from a concussion?

Way too many variables out of their control when the one variable they can control, guaranteed money and a lot of it, is right there.

We shall see…I’ll be shocked if we get him signed for less than $12 mil per year. I believe he’s going to be the highest paid Blue in history a year from now.

If he scores 30 goals this year you’re 100% right. It’s super important that we have Thomas, Broberg, and Holloway signed to such great contracts.

I don't think 30 goals is so rare teams are desperate to give up 4 first round picks for it.

I’m talking about us signing him. Offer sheet compensation doesn’t enter into the equation.

[skilles]

Snuggerud going to cost $15 mil per a year from now.

He would have to put up 90 this year for that.

Come on man.

I'm not saying that isn't possible. But to just say that like it's fact is not quite realistic.

He can pop in 25-30 goals and simply wait for an offer sheet. Maybe we get lucky and get him for $12-13 mil but if you are Snuggerud why wouldn’t you just wait and see. It’s the Wild Wild West out there right now. Our $8 mil per year player is over in St. Louis

Why gamble if you can have guaranteed money?

Sure the possibility is there for a larger pay day, but what if it isn't there? What if his wrist snaps again? Has a sophomore slump?

If the blues go to him with a good respectable offer for a good length such as say 80/8 that's 80 freaking million dollars. Would you say no and take your chances that a team might throw an insane offer at you and that some 4th line goon doesn't elbow smash your face into the glass and you miss 40 games from a concussion?

Way too many variables out of their control when the one variable they can control, guaranteed money and a lot of it, is right there.

We shall see…I’ll be shocked if we get him signed for less than $12 mil per year. I believe he’s going to be the highest paid Blue in history a year from now.

If he scores 30 goals this year you’re 100% right. It’s super important that we have Thomas, Broberg, and Holloway signed to such great contracts.

I don't think 30 goals is so rare teams are desperate to give up 4 first round picks for it.

I’m talking about us signing him. Offer sheet compensation doesn’t enter into the equation.

Well it kind of does, that is his negotiation power. It greatly effects how much we have to pay him.

[The Average Gatsby]

Snuggerud going to cost $15 mil per a year from now.

He would have to put up 90 this year for that.

Come on man.

I'm not saying that isn't possible. But to just say that like it's fact is not quite realistic.

He can pop in 25-30 goals and simply wait for an offer sheet. Maybe we get lucky and get him for $12-13 mil but if you are Snuggerud why wouldn’t you just wait and see. It’s the Wild Wild West out there right now. Our $8 mil per year player is over in St. Louis

Why gamble if you can have guaranteed money?

Sure the possibility is there for a larger pay day, but what if it isn't there? What if his wrist snaps again? Has a sophomore slump?

If the blues go to him with a good respectable offer for a good length such as say 80/8 that's 80 freaking million dollars. Would you say no and take your chances that a team might throw an insane offer at you and that some 4th line goon doesn't elbow smash your face into the glass and you miss 40 games from a concussion?

Way too many variables out of their control when the one variable they can control, guaranteed money and a lot of it, is right there.

We shall see…I’ll be shocked if we get him signed for less than $12 mil per year. I believe he’s going to be the highest paid Blue in history a year from now.

If he scores 30 goals this year you’re 100% right. It’s super important that we have Thomas, Broberg, and Holloway signed to such great contracts.

I don't think 30 goals is so rare teams are desperate to give up 4 first round picks for it.

I’m talking about us signing him. Offer sheet compensation doesn’t enter into the equation.

Well it kind of does, that is his negotiation power. It greatly effects how much we have to pay him.

The cap is the main thing that effects how much we pay him. You can sign him long term for 12 now or wait a couple of years and pay him 15 instead.

[skilles]

Snuggerud going to cost $15 mil per a year from now.

He would have to put up 90 this year for that.

Come on man.

I'm not saying that isn't possible. But to just say that like it's fact is not quite realistic.

He can pop in 25-30 goals and simply wait for an offer sheet. Maybe we get lucky and get him for $12-13 mil but if you are Snuggerud why wouldn’t you just wait and see. It’s the Wild Wild West out there right now. Our $8 mil per year player is over in St. Louis

Why gamble if you can have guaranteed money?

Sure the possibility is there for a larger pay day, but what if it isn't there? What if his wrist snaps again? Has a sophomore slump?

If the blues go to him with a good respectable offer for a good length such as say 80/8 that's 80 freaking million dollars. Would you say no and take your chances that a team might throw an insane offer at you and that some 4th line goon doesn't elbow smash your face into the glass and you miss 40 games from a concussion?

Way too many variables out of their control when the one variable they can control, guaranteed money and a lot of it, is right there.

We shall see…I’ll be shocked if we get him signed for less than $12 mil per year. I believe he’s going to be the highest paid Blue in history a year from now.

If he scores 30 goals this year you’re 100% right. It’s super important that we have Thomas, Broberg, and Holloway signed to such great contracts.

I don't think 30 goals is so rare teams are desperate to give up 4 first round picks for it.

I’m talking about us signing him. Offer sheet compensation doesn’t enter into the equation.

Well it kind of does, that is his negotiation power. It greatly effects how much we have to pay him.

The cap is the main thing that effects how much we pay him. You can sign him long term for 12 now or wait a couple of years and pay him 15 instead.

I think that is maybe true but he has certainly not proven to be a 12 or 15 million dollar player yet. Unless he knocks it out plum out of the park this year I think the number stays under 12 maybe well under depending on his production.

[The Average Gatsby]

Snuggerud going to cost $15 mil per a year from now.

He would have to put up 90 this year for that.

Come on man.

I'm not saying that isn't possible. But to just say that like it's fact is not quite realistic.

He can pop in 25-30 goals and simply wait for an offer sheet. Maybe we get lucky and get him for $12-13 mil but if you are Snuggerud why wouldn’t you just wait and see. It’s the Wild Wild West out there right now. Our $8 mil per year player is over in St. Louis

Why gamble if you can have guaranteed money?

Sure the possibility is there for a larger pay day, but what if it isn't there? What if his wrist snaps again? Has a sophomore slump?

If the blues go to him with a good respectable offer for a good length such as say 80/8 that's 80 freaking million dollars. Would you say no and take your chances that a team might throw an insane offer at you and that some 4th line goon doesn't elbow smash your face into the glass and you miss 40 games from a concussion?

Way too many variables out of their control when the one variable they can control, guaranteed money and a lot of it, is right there.

We shall see…I’ll be shocked if we get him signed for less than $12 mil per year. I believe he’s going to be the highest paid Blue in history a year from now.

If he scores 30 goals this year you’re 100% right. It’s super important that we have Thomas, Broberg, and Holloway signed to such great contracts.

I don't think 30 goals is so rare teams are desperate to give up 4 first round picks for it.

I’m talking about us signing him. Offer sheet compensation doesn’t enter into the equation.

Well it kind of does, that is his negotiation power. It greatly effects how much we have to pay him.

The cap is the main thing that effects how much we pay him. You can sign him long term for 12 now or wait a couple of years and pay him 15 instead.

I think that is maybe true but he has certainly not proven to be a 12 or 15 million dollar player yet. Unless he knocks it out plum out of the park this year I think the number stays under 12 maybe well under depending on his production.

Right. I said 12 will be the number if he scores 30 goals. Kyrou got 8 for scoring 30 goals a few years ago and that price tag is going up.

[skilles]

Snuggerud going to cost $15 mil per a year from now.

He would have to put up 90 this year for that.

Come on man.

I'm not saying that isn't possible. But to just say that like it's fact is not quite realistic.

He can pop in 25-30 goals and simply wait for an offer sheet. Maybe we get lucky and get him for $12-13 mil but if you are Snuggerud why wouldn’t you just wait and see. It’s the Wild Wild West out there right now. Our $8 mil per year player is over in St. Louis

Why gamble if you can have guaranteed money?

Sure the possibility is there for a larger pay day, but what if it isn't there? What if his wrist snaps again? Has a sophomore slump?

If the blues go to him with a good respectable offer for a good length such as say 80/8 that's 80 freaking million dollars. Would you say no and take your chances that a team might throw an insane offer at you and that some 4th line goon doesn't elbow smash your face into the glass and you miss 40 games from a concussion?

Way too many variables out of their control when the one variable they can control, guaranteed money and a lot of it, is right there.

We shall see…I’ll be shocked if we get him signed for less than $12 mil per year. I believe he’s going to be the highest paid Blue in history a year from now.

If he scores 30 goals this year you’re 100% right. It’s super important that we have Thomas, Broberg, and Holloway signed to such great contracts.

I don't think 30 goals is so rare teams are desperate to give up 4 first round picks for it.

I’m talking about us signing him. Offer sheet compensation doesn’t enter into the equation.

Well it kind of does, that is his negotiation power. It greatly effects how much we have to pay him.

The cap is the main thing that effects how much we pay him. You can sign him long term for 12 now or wait a couple of years and pay him 15 instead.

I think that is maybe true but he has certainly not proven to be a 12 or 15 million dollar player yet. Unless he knocks it out plum out of the park this year I think the number stays under 12 maybe well under depending on his production.

Right. I said 12 will be the number if he scores 30 goals. Kyrou got 8 for scoring 30 goals a few years ago and that price tag is going up.

I don't think 30 gets him 12 unless there are a lot of assist as well. Probably close to it though.

If I'm him I'd jump all over 10/8 next off season

[TheJackBurton]

The teams that would be willing to offer sheets a snuggerud in this example would be doing so at numbers that big because they believe he pushes them over the edge.. as to say they are betting the 4 first rds you get are in the bottom 20s...

4 firsts sounds great till you realize what you're actually getting...

Any team that see's Snuggy as the final piece very likely won't meet 1 of the 2 criteria needed to get to a point that Blues won't match or they'll hit both:

1) They don't 4 of their own 1st rounders

2) They have the cap space

In most cases if they are that close to a cup they have either spent draft capital acquiring players or are close to the cap.

[Cahokanut]

Ducks had too. Something has to change. Four first isn't enough for elite talent.
A some point this is going to catch up on the league.
There are only so many people willing to pay a few hundred dollars to watch a non playoff team. Funny For hockey fans, there's nothing like socialism.

[TheJackBurton]

Ducks had too. Something has to change. Four first isn't enough for elite talent.
A some point this is going to catch up on the league.
There are only so many people willing to pay a few hundred dollars to watch a non playoff team. Funny For hockey fans, there's nothing like socialism.

I actually think you might be right in this instance. They might very well have to rethink the compensation tiers as 4 1st rounders doesn't really seem punitive enough if odds are those picks likely will be in the 20's for a potential top 10 center at the age of 21.