How the heck did Tommy Edman earn 6.2 bWAR?

[rockondlouie]

First anyone who's read my post for a long time knows I'm a huge fan of advanced metrics including fWAR/bWAR.

As I've posted before I bought a copy of Bill James first pamphlet (and it was a pamphlet) from the back of my TSN long before the average fan even knew who he was.

That said I also acknowledge that both WAR's have their flaws if you treat them as a PRECISE measure rather than a general ESTIMATE which they are.

Each WAR also has their own metrics they evaluate pitchers & hitters on.

My gripe has always been how both WARS evaluate defense which is very subjective (fWAR uses OAA + FRV) while bWAR uses DRS).

Go look at M. Winn's DRS vs his OAA and you'll see the flaw.

I asked A.I. to define the flaws in WARS defensive evaluations, here it is:

Defense: Imprecision & Different Metrics

Defensive value is often seen as the most "volatile" part of WAR because it relies on different tracking systems.

bWAR uses Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), which some critics argue is becoming outdated compared to modern tracking.

fWAR uses Statcast's Outs Above Average (OAA) and Fielding Run Value (FRV) for its modern calculations.

Catcher Framing:
FanGraphs includes pitch framing in its WAR, while Baseball-Reference does not.

This leads to massive gaps for elite-framing catchers.

Again, I'm a fWAR/bWAR fan and have used it since it's inception.

But It's simply one tool I use to evaluate a player and not the "be-all and end-all" some think it is.

JMO

I'm not right, but I'm not wrong either

[Goldfan]

I think everyone pretty much agrees that defense remains the hardest component of productivity to value in a WAR methodology.

However, defensive value IS real and needs to be accounted for. If someone has a better way of valuing EVERY PLAY made by EVERY PLAYER than DRS, UZR/150, OAA, FRV, etc., we'd all like to hear it.

I hear ya Matt, so why not just stop using WAR as some kind of fact based stat. It’s not….it’s flawed…..and yet its thrown out there right along with BA, OBP, OPS, ERA, WHIP

Literally all those other stats have flaws too...

Really? Over the course of a full season, what flaw is there in BA? Give me 5 guys on the same team who hit .290+ over 150 games in a season and you'll have a good team. It's a factual stat, that has no debate.

Likewise ERA. If your team ERA is in the low 3s, youre going to win more than you lose. How is it flawed?

WAR on the other hand? Let's imagine how many wins this player results in vs if he didnt play. How is that even quantified without knowing what the "replacement " player did?

Every one of those stats is pure equation from the MLB rule book. WAR and these other analytics derivatives originate at a 0 point of some fictitious player then from there make assumptions about numerous inputs that may or may not have ever occurred.

[Melville]

in 2022. 107 OPS+, no GG, only 57 RBIs, .324 OBP. .265 BA, career high of 111 SOs. Nothing eye popping in the stats line.

Probably because WAR is made up and is essentially pointless.

Absolutely.
Nothing but a short cut parlor game, which only those who do not understand the game place any credence in.
Smart people know better.

Do you even know how either fWAR or bWAR is calculated?
If so, explain how it’s a parlor game.
And for the umpteenth time, what is your best measure for a player’s overall value? RBIs! Ha ha ha
You have no clue. A smart person should know better than to make such an uninformed statement.

They don’t understand. I used to not understand. I used to think it was stupid. Then I decided to spend 30 minutes researching and it now makes perfect sense. It that simple.

I know "WAR" better than the fantasy baseball folks who created it.
I break down data and interpret it for a living
I know my client's businesses better than they do - because that is what I am paid to do.
Reality is, "WAR" is a reverse engineered scheme which is wildly inaccurate, extremely subjective, and should never be used to compare players or establish actual contribution value.
It is a toy for the lazy and uniformed who know little about the game

[ClassicO]

in 2022. 107 OPS+, no GG, only 57 RBIs, .324 OBP. .265 BA, career high of 111 SOs. Nothing eye popping in the stats line.

Probably because WAR is made up and is essentially pointless.

Absolutely.
Nothing but a short cut parlor game, which only those who do not understand the game place any credence in.
Smart people know better.

Do you even know how either fWAR or bWAR is calculated?
If so, explain how it’s a parlor game.
And for the umpteenth time, what is your best measure for a player’s overall value? RBIs! Ha ha ha
You have no clue. A smart person should know better than to make such an uninformed statement.

They don’t understand. I used to not understand. I used to think it was stupid. Then I decided to spend 30 minutes researching and it now makes perfect sense. It that simple.

Well done.
A key sign of an intelligent person is their curiosity. That generates better knowledge and understanding. Even empathy.
The key sign of an ignorant person is one who keeps repeating the same thing over and over, thinking others will think it's true, rather than use their curiosity to find out it may not be. You can guess who epitomizes the latter.

[ScotchMIrish]

Better question - why does anybody pay attention to these goofy analytics stats like bWAR?

Where do you draw the line on useful or useless as it pertains to analytics?

Do you feel like defense shouldn’t be tracked? Is the assessment of an error just to mean… errr… goofy? Do you not care at all about a player’s base running ability and acumen? Do you not care why a pitcher may be prone to giving up home runs?

Generally curious.

There is more nuance to the game of baseball than can be calculated by these sabermetrics stats. The top bWAR on the 1982 Cardinals:

Keith Hernandez (1B): 6.5
Lonnie Smith (OF): 5.7
Ozzie Smith (SS): 5.0
George Hendrick (OF): 4.0
Darrell Porter (C): 3.5
Tom Herr (2B): 1.7
Willie McGee (OF): 1.6

Joaquín Andújar: 4.5
Bob Forsch: 3.5
Bruce Sutter: 3.3

That's a world series championship team. Which of those players is not better than Edman in 2025?

[RamFan08NY]

I think everyone pretty much agrees that defense remains the hardest component of productivity to value in a WAR methodology.

However, defensive value IS real and needs to be accounted for. If someone has a better way of valuing EVERY PLAY made by EVERY PLAYER than DRS, UZR/150, OAA, FRV, etc., we'd all like to hear it.

I hear ya Matt, so why not just stop using WAR as some kind of fact based stat. It’s not….it’s flawed…..and yet its thrown out there right along with BA, OBP, OPS, ERA, WHIP

Literally all those other stats have flaws too...

Really? Over the course of a full season, what flaw is there in BA? Give me 5 guys on the same team who hit .290+ over 150 games in a season and you'll have a good team. It's a factual stat, that has no debate.

Likewise ERA. If your team ERA is in the low 3s, youre going to win more than you lose. How is it flawed?

WAR on the other hand? Let's imagine how many wins this player results in vs if he didnt play. How is that even quantified without knowing what the "replacement " player did?

Using your own “logic”:

“Give me 5 guys on the same team who [generate >= 5 WAR each] over 150 games in a season and you’ll have a good team. It’s a factual stat, that has no debate.”

“If your team [pitching WAR is in the low-to-mid 20s], you’re going to win more than you lose. How is it flawed?”

Thats avoiding my question. I was replying to someone who said BA, and ERA are flawed stats. I asked him how a players BA or ERA can be flawed.

[ClassicO]

in 2022. 107 OPS+, no GG, only 57 RBIs, .324 OBP. .265 BA, career high of 111 SOs. Nothing eye popping in the stats line.

Probably because WAR is made up and is essentially pointless.

Absolutely.
Nothing but a short cut parlor game, which only those who do not understand the game place any credence in.
Smart people know better.

Do you even know how either fWAR or bWAR is calculated?
If so, explain how it’s a parlor game.
And for the umpteenth time, what is your best measure for a player’s overall value? RBIs! Ha ha ha
You have no clue. A smart person should know better than to make such an uninformed statement.

They don’t understand. I used to not understand. I used to think it was stupid. Then I decided to spend 30 minutes researching and it now makes perfect sense. It that simple.

I know "WAR" better than the fantasy baseball folks who created it.
I break down data and interpret it for a living
I know my client's businesses better than they do - because that is what I am paid to do.
Reality is, "WAR" is a reverse engineered scheme which is wildly inaccurate, extremely subjective, and should never be used to compare players or establish actual contribution value.
It is a toy for the lazy and uniformed who know little about the game

First, it was Sabermetrics, not fanatics, geeks, who created it. Fantasy b-ball, like you, only pays attention to offense. Strike one.
Second, if you break down data "for a living," you don't do it here. You spout very little data, just unsupported opinions. Strike two.
WAR is anything but "subjective." And rather than a toy, it is a formula based on many stats that seek not just hitting stats, but others, "leveled" by position adjustments. Strike three.
You're out.

[Goldfan]

in 2022. 107 OPS+, no GG, only 57 RBIs, .324 OBP. .265 BA, career high of 111 SOs. Nothing eye popping in the stats line.

Probably because WAR is made up and is essentially pointless.

Absolutely.
Nothing but a short cut parlor game, which only those who do not understand the game place any credence in.
Smart people know better.

Do you even know how either fWAR or bWAR is calculated?
If so, explain how it’s a parlor game.
And for the umpteenth time, what is your best measure for a player’s overall value? RBIs! Ha ha ha
You have no clue. A smart person should know better than to make such an uninformed statement.

They don’t understand. I used to not understand. I used to think it was stupid. Then I decided to spend 30 minutes researching and it now makes perfect sense. It that simple.

I know "WAR" better than the fantasy baseball folks who created it.
I break down data and interpret it for a living
I know my client's businesses better than they do - because that is what I am paid to do.
Reality is, "WAR" is a reverse engineered scheme which is wildly inaccurate, extremely subjective, and should never be used to compare players or establish actual contribution value.
It is a toy for the lazy and uniformed who know little about the game

First, it was Sabermetrics, not fanatics, geeks, who created it. Fantasy b-ball, like you, only pays attention to offense. Strike one.
Second, if you break down data "for a living," you don't do it here. You spout very little data, just unsupported opinions. Strike two.
WAR is anything but "subjective." And rather than a toy, it is a formula based on many stats that seek not just hitting stats, but others, "leveled" by position adjustments. Strike three.
You're out.

Do you actually think this is how MLB works that most of the inputs for WAR are a constant derived from assumptions and adjustment? Does that even sound right when reading the sentence?

The calculation of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) involves several assumed constants and contextual adjustments to ensure players can be compared fairly across different teams, ballparks, and eras.
1. The Replacement Level Assumption
The most significant assumption in WAR is the definition of a "replacement-level" player.
The Baseline: Major sources (Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs) agree on a standard where a team composed entirely of replacement-level players would win approximately 47.7 games (a .294 winning percentage) in a 162-game season.
The "Win" Value: It is generally assumed that 10 runs equal 1 win. This "Runs Per Win" factor is adjusted annually based on the league's scoring environment.
Sabermetrics Library
Sabermetrics Library
+3
2. Positional Adjustments
Since some defensive positions are significantly harder to play than others, WAR adds or subtracts a set number of runs to "level the playing field". These are typically calculated per 162 games:
Sabermetrics Library
Sabermetrics Library
+1
Catcher: +12.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Second/Third Base: +2.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs
Corner Outfield: -7.5 runs
First Base: -12.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs
Sabermetrics Library
Sabermetrics Library
+1
3. Park and League Factors
WAR adjusts raw statistics to account for the environment in which they were recorded.
Park Factors: Adjusts for the specific stadium's tendency to favor hitters or pitchers (e.g., a home run in Coors Field is weighted less than one in a pitcher-friendly park).
League Adjustments: A small correction is applied to ensure that the average "Runs Above Average" for an entire league (AL or NL) equals zero, accounting for slight differences in league-wide scoring.
Sabermetrics Library
Sabermetrics Library
+3
4. Pitching Assumptions
Different models make different assumptions about what a pitcher actually controls:
fWAR (FanGraphs): Assumes pitchers are primarily responsible for "Three True Outcomes"—strikeouts, walks, and home runs. It uses Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) as the primary input.
rWAR (Baseball-Reference): Assumes actual Runs Allowed (including unearned runs) are the best measure of a pitcher's contribution, then adjusts for the quality of the defense behind them

[An Old Friend]

Really? Over the course of a full season, what flaw is there in BA? Give me 5 guys on the same team who hit .290+ over 150 games in a season and you'll have a good team. It's a factual stat, that has no debate.

15 qualified hitters hit .290 or better in 2025… in all of baseball. Your “give me” scenario has no basis in reality.

[Cardinals1964]

in 2022. 107 OPS+, no GG, only 57 RBIs, .324 OBP. .265 BA, career high of 111 SOs. Nothing eye popping in the stats line.

Probably because WAR is made up and is essentially pointless.

Absolutely.
Nothing but a short cut parlor game, which only those who do not understand the game place any credence in.
Smart people know better.

Do you even know how either fWAR or bWAR is calculated?
If so, explain how it’s a parlor game.
And for the umpteenth time, what is your best measure for a player’s overall value? RBIs! Ha ha ha
You have no clue. A smart person should know better than to make such an uninformed statement.

They don’t understand. I used to not understand. I used to think it was stupid. Then I decided to spend 30 minutes researching and it now makes perfect sense. It that simple.

I know "WAR" better than the fantasy baseball folks who created it.
I break down data and interpret it for a living
I know my client's businesses better than they do - because that is what I am paid to do.
Reality is, "WAR" is a reverse engineered scheme which is wildly inaccurate, extremely subjective, and should never be used to compare players or establish actual contribution value.
It is a toy for the lazy and uniformed who know little about the game

Would you rather have a 10 war player or a 1 war player?

[Melville]

in 2022. 107 OPS+, no GG, only 57 RBIs, .324 OBP. .265 BA, career high of 111 SOs. Nothing eye popping in the stats line.

Probably because WAR is made up and is essentially pointless.

Absolutely.
Nothing but a short cut parlor game, which only those who do not understand the game place any credence in.
Smart people know better.

Do you even know how either fWAR or bWAR is calculated?
If so, explain how it’s a parlor game.
And for the umpteenth time, what is your best measure for a player’s overall value? RBIs! Ha ha ha
You have no clue. A smart person should know better than to make such an uninformed statement.

They don’t understand. I used to not understand. I used to think it was stupid. Then I decided to spend 30 minutes researching and it now makes perfect sense. It that simple.

I know "WAR" better than the fantasy baseball folks who created it.
I break down data and interpret it for a living
I know my client's businesses better than they do - because that is what I am paid to do.
Reality is, "WAR" is a reverse engineered scheme which is wildly inaccurate, extremely subjective, and should never be used to compare players or establish actual contribution value.
It is a toy for the lazy and uniformed who know little about the game

Would you rather have a 10 war player or a 1 war player?

Neither exist.
Both are fictional characters.

[WeeVikes]

in 2022. 107 OPS+, no GG, only 57 RBIs, .324 OBP. .265 BA, career high of 111 SOs. Nothing eye popping in the stats line.

Probably because WAR is made up and is essentially pointless.

Absolutely.
Nothing but a short cut parlor game, which only those who do not understand the game place any credence in.
Smart people know better.

Do you even know how either fWAR or bWAR is calculated?
If so, explain how it’s a parlor game.
And for the umpteenth time, what is your best measure for a player’s overall value? RBIs! Ha ha ha
You have no clue. A smart person should know better than to make such an uninformed statement.

They don’t understand. I used to not understand. I used to think it was stupid. Then I decided to spend 30 minutes researching and it now makes perfect sense. It that simple.

I know "WAR" better than the fantasy baseball folks who created it.
I break down data and interpret it for a living
I know my client's businesses better than they do - because that is what I am paid to do.
Reality is, "WAR" is a reverse engineered scheme which is wildly inaccurate, extremely subjective, and should never be used to compare players or establish actual contribution value.
It is a toy for the lazy and uniformed who know little about the game

Would you rather have a 10 war player or a 1 war player?

Neither exist.
Both are fictional characters.

Now, now... one can apply the equations to someone and calculate their WAR as "10", if the inputs so dictate. The same equations could be applied to a different player, and the results might equal "1". They would be quite real, non-fictional people.

Now, whether you put any stock in the outputs of those equations and the interpretation one might make is a different story!

[ClassicO]

Melville, as usual, chickens out and refuses to offer HIS statistic(s) that best quantify a player's total value.

Give me a better estimate than this using another set of stats or whatever you choose. I'll wait...

Screenshot 2026-03-18 at 2.32.44 PM.png

[WaltsSuccessor]

I think everyone pretty much agrees that defense remains the hardest component of productivity to value in a WAR methodology.

However, defensive value IS real and needs to be accounted for. If someone has a better way of valuing EVERY PLAY made by EVERY PLAYER than DRS, UZR/150, OAA, FRV, etc., we'd all like to hear it.

I hear ya Matt, so why not just stop using WAR as some kind of fact based stat. It’s not….it’s flawed…..and yet its thrown out there right along with BA, OBP, OPS, ERA, WHIP

Literally all those other stats have flaws too...

Really? Over the course of a full season, what flaw is there in BA? Give me 5 guys on the same team who hit .290+ over 150 games in a season and you'll have a good team. It's a factual stat, that has no debate.

Likewise ERA. If your team ERA is in the low 3s, youre going to win more than you lose. How is it flawed?

WAR on the other hand? Let's imagine how many wins this player results in vs if he didnt play. How is that even quantified without knowing what the "replacement " player did?

Seriously? Batting average treats all hits as equal. A single counts the same as a home run in batting average. A .290 pure singles hitter is no where near as valuable as a well rounded slugger (like vintage Pujols) who hits .290.

ERA is literally EARNED run average. A run being deemed earned is completely subjective on the official scoring on errors. Plus, a pitcher with a better defense behind them will be default have a lower ERA than a pitcher on another team with a (bleep) defense (all else being equal).

You arguing ERA isn't flawed is mind blogging.

[Goldfan]

I think everyone pretty much agrees that defense remains the hardest component of productivity to value in a WAR methodology.

However, defensive value IS real and needs to be accounted for. If someone has a better way of valuing EVERY PLAY made by EVERY PLAYER than DRS, UZR/150, OAA, FRV, etc., we'd all like to hear it.

I hear ya Matt, so why not just stop using WAR as some kind of fact based stat. It’s not….it’s flawed…..and yet its thrown out there right along with BA, OBP, OPS, ERA, WHIP

Literally all those other stats have flaws too...

Really? Over the course of a full season, what flaw is there in BA? Give me 5 guys on the same team who hit .290+ over 150 games in a season and you'll have a good team. It's a factual stat, that has no debate.

Likewise ERA. If your team ERA is in the low 3s, youre going to win more than you lose. How is it flawed?

WAR on the other hand? Let's imagine how many wins this player results in vs if he didnt play. How is that even quantified without knowing what the "replacement " player did?

Seriously? Batting average treats all hits as equal. A single counts the same as a home run in batting average. A .290 pure singles hitter is no where near as valuable as a well rounded slugger (like vintage Pujols) who hits .290.

ERA is literally EARNED run average. A run being deemed earned is completely subjective on the official scoring on errors. Plus, a pitcher with a better defense behind them will be default have a lower ERA than a pitcher on another team with a (bleep) defense (all else being equal).

You arguing ERA isn't flawed is mind blogging.

Batting Avg>>>>hits/ab’s. Very simple equation. You now exactly how often a players hits the ball safely.
WAR>>>Start with fantasy AAA player baseline>>>>adjust for position>>>>adjust for Park>>>>compare against all other at position>>>gives you a 2 digit number with decimal>>>
So by viewing that number how do you know if the player has Power, hits for avg, great on D, runs bases well??? It doesn’t tell you anything. You need to go back to the basic stats for any detail

[Cardinals1964]

in 2022. 107 OPS+, no GG, only 57 RBIs, .324 OBP. .265 BA, career high of 111 SOs. Nothing eye popping in the stats line.

Probably because WAR is made up and is essentially pointless.

Absolutely.
Nothing but a short cut parlor game, which only those who do not understand the game place any credence in.
Smart people know better.

Do you even know how either fWAR or bWAR is calculated?
If so, explain how it’s a parlor game.
And for the umpteenth time, what is your best measure for a player’s overall value? RBIs! Ha ha ha
You have no clue. A smart person should know better than to make such an uninformed statement.

They don’t understand. I used to not understand. I used to think it was stupid. Then I decided to spend 30 minutes researching and it now makes perfect sense. It that simple.

I know "WAR" better than the fantasy baseball folks who created it.
I break down data and interpret it for a living
I know my client's businesses better than they do - because that is what I am paid to do.
Reality is, "WAR" is a reverse engineered scheme which is wildly inaccurate, extremely subjective, and should never be used to compare players or establish actual contribution value.
It is a toy for the lazy and uniformed who know little about the game

Would you rather have a 10 war player or a 1 war player?

Neither exist.
Both are fictional characters.

Weakest reply of all time. You really are the first and only one to miss this badly.