Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Standings 66 Wins--I can't get over this one and I'm sure you've already seen it.

[45s]

PECOTA has almost always been wrong on the Cardinals

I've ignored their lame predictions for years.

BIG time take the over

They seem pretty close the last 2 years.

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/3210667

https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2024/2/11 ... ls-in-2024

Come on man…..don’t burst Rock’s fantasy by tossing out reality like that…

[rockondlouie]

PECOTA has almost always been wrong on the Cardinals

I've ignored their lame predictions for years.

BIG time take the over

They seem pretty close the last 2 years.

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/3210667

https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2024/2/11 ... ls-in-2024

Blind squirrel found a couple nuts, they've been off way more times than they've be right about the Cardinals for as long as they've been predicting.

[CCard]

The usual haters now now taking PECOTA predictions very seriously.

Well, there's some on here who think this team will finish .500, to us realists that seems like some strong kool-aid.

People can think over they want. I don't care one way or the other if they think the team is better or worse.

My point is that a bunch of people who usually (bleep) on these kind of projections when they are halfway decent all of a sudden are now touting them because they are bad.

Probably true to some extent, but I don't pay attention or care about projections. I can see with my own eyes the strengths and weaknesses of the Cards roster. It remains to be seen whether a bunch of unknown pitchers can stabilize and transform a starting rotation. If things go as they usually do then some will fail and some won't. The lineup is problematic in that they lost a 20 homerun hitter and he hasn't been replaced. Maybe Wetherholt replaces some of that and maybe Church does something. But this team looks to be very short on slugging power. Add that to questionable pitching and you can see that the future is leaning more toward failure than success. A season can take on a life of its own and it has happened before. No one believed the 1982 Cardinals could win the World Series, but they did. I hope the Cards have a surge like that, but I'm skeptical.

[Cusecards]

66 Wins y'all.
Just 66 wins are projected.
I'm sure you've seen this.
We have some on here that are clouded into thinking this team is better than last year.
I think that is 2nd worst projected, just ahead of Colorado.
But, according to Bloom, we are going to be competitive in 2026?
Bloom the Gaslighter.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

Why do you care? Would 77 make you feel better? What about 81? Would that make you feel like a winner? Get a different hobby if you can’t deal wit th a few down years.

Bully is a charter member of the short attention span club. They are only interested with the 2026 MLB W/L record. Nothing else matters, except the 2026 MLB payroll. Any number below $170M will result in extreme outrage and wailing about DeWallet.

The new regime's cleanup and reinvestment in development means zero to this bunch. We may need to call the waaambulance.

I started laughing when I clicked on the thread and saw who the OP was!
At the end of EVERY week you get the rambling diatribe thread from Bully. Tomorrow we’ll get one from Webby.
They’re both harmless(Trolls I guess?) and you have to take it as comic relief.
Sometimes I wonder if Bully & Webby are the same person?
That would be BAZAR!
Give them their negative attention(as I am now doing!) and since they have zero knowledge of baseball I look at their negativity as being a “positive”!

[ilcubuffs]

Sports fans supposedly wanted data and tons of it in order to provide additional clarity to a sport where the "old" data was not good enough.

All it did was produce the 'butterfly effect" like it does in stock market. Someone in China or Russia has flatulence and stocks rise or fall. In two days it is all forgotten. PECOTA is the same.

PECOTA will become somewhat relevant at the AS break. Must say, after decades of being a Cardinal fan, do not recall any prognosticator or media organization with the cajones to state the Cards have 0.0% to win division, 0.2% to win WC and playoff.

[ScotchMIrish]

66 Wins y'all.
Just 66 wins are projected.
I'm sure you've seen this.
We have some on here that are clouded into thinking this team is better than last year.
I think that is 2nd worst projected, just ahead of Colorado.
But, according to Bloom, we are going to be competitive in 2026?
Bloom the Gaslighter.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

I'm thinking 90 or more losses.

[TheFantasyStud]

If two starting pitchers emerge than we could be much better than everyone thinks. Let’s hope May is healthy and that Mathew’s is ready to turn in to the stud he is. The rotation has the potential to be better than last years.

May
Liberatore
McGreevy
Matthews
Dobbins/Fittz/Leahy

[DFW Cards Fan]

I don't understand what people are mad about. We're rebuilding. This offense looks to be a bottom-5 in the league group, unless Gorman and Walker both improve significantly. The starting pitching staff seems likely be similar, with upside over last year depending on whether Libs continues to trend up and if we get anything from Matthews. The bullpen will probably be worse. They will lose a lot of games. But if JJW is the real deal and they at least get answers on Walker and Gorman so they know what to do going forward that is about all you can ask for. The real story line for 2026 will be what goes on in the minors and if any of the recent draftees and trade gains on the pitching side look to develop better ceilings than #3 starter in MLB.

[ramfandan]

I don't understand what people are mad about. We're rebuilding. This offense looks to be a bottom-5 in the league group, unless Gorman and Walker both improve significantly. The starting pitching staff seems likely be similar, with upside over last year depending on whether Libs continues to trend up and if we get anything from Matthews. The bullpen will probably be worse. They will lose a lot of games. But if JJW is the real deal and they at least get answers on Walker and Gorman so they know what to do going forward that is about all you can ask for. The real story line for 2026 will be what goes on in the minors and if any of the recent draftees and trade gains on the pitching side look to develop better ceilings than #3 starter in MLB.

Like a Doyle and Cijntje possibly. They could get ‘look see’ or ‘cup of coffee’ as they call it after trade deadline.
Give them experience of what they would be facing in 2027.

[Cardinals1964]

So if the projection is 66 wins, but they win 67, that would show progress, right? Marmol extension even?

[ggnoobs]

It's wrong. Cards will win more games in 2026 than 2025

Gorman, Walker and Scott are going to improve
Wetherholt will be similar in WAR to Donovan
Arenado won't be missed as Fermin, Saggese will be fine
Pitching Depth will be better
Bullpen fine

You’re wrong. I want to win the World Series this year. Anything else doesn’t matter. I know more about being a MLB GM than Bloom. I think about the roster everyday as I drive to work getting paid garbage.

The Cardinals only have 11 seasons that matter? That's a tortured outlook. It's a game.

I don’t blame you for missing the sarcasm.
But let’s think about it. In my lifetime, the Cardinals have been in nine World Series. That’s every 6.77 years. They won 5. That’s every 12.2 years of my life. That’s a very good performance based on the number of teams in each league. I only hope younger people see the same results instead of whining like snowflakes.

This is why us younger fans are excited about the rebuild. We want to experience a lengthy winning run and we're willing to endure a few down years to get the same winning you were privileged to see. I don't want 10 more years of hovering around .500 with mid tier free agent acquisitions hoping for the last wild card spot.

[sikeston bulldog2]

It's wrong. Cards will win more games in 2026 than 2025

Gorman, Walker and Scott are going to improve
Wetherholt will be similar in WAR to Donovan
Arenado won't be missed as Fermin, Saggese will be fine
Pitching Depth will be better
Bullpen fine

You’re wrong. I want to win the World Series this year. Anything else doesn’t matter. I know more about being a MLB GM than Bloom. I think about the roster everyday as I drive to work getting paid garbage.

The Cardinals only have 11 seasons that matter? That's a tortured outlook. It's a game.

I don’t blame you for missing the sarcasm.
But let’s think about it. In my lifetime, the Cardinals have been in nine World Series. That’s every 6.77 years. They won 5. That’s every 12.2 years of my life. That’s a very good performance based on the number of teams in each league. I only hope younger people see the same results instead of whining like snowflakes.

This is why us younger fans are excited about the rebuild. We want to experience a lengthy winning run and we're willing to endure a few down years to get the same winning you were privileged to see. I don't want 10 more years of hovering around .500 with mid tier free agent acquisitions hoping for the last wild card spot.

Good write. At 70 I’m good and excited to see if this model will actually work.

[ramfandan]

Prior to the 2025 season PECOTA has this projections for the NL Central race .
Cubs outdistancing the Brewers 91 to 81 winning by 10 games. This was their summary comment :

Cubs: Chicago isn't a perfect team by any stretch, but it's likely the most complete NL Central club. That should be enough to get the franchise back to the top of this division.

Brewers: Milwaukee kept its recent run of success going with a shocking division title in 2024. But after losing Willy Adames and trading Devin Williams, it's fair to think its luck may finally be running out.on them.

The final wins in 2025 was Brewers 97 wins and Cubs with 92 . So a 10 game projection favoring the Cubs ended in the Brewers winning by 5 games.. a 16 game swing in the PECOTA .
Oh well !

[Cardinals1964]

It's wrong. Cards will win more games in 2026 than 2025

Gorman, Walker and Scott are going to improve
Wetherholt will be similar in WAR to Donovan
Arenado won't be missed as Fermin, Saggese will be fine
Pitching Depth will be better
Bullpen fine

You’re wrong. I want to win the World Series this year. Anything else doesn’t matter. I know more about being a MLB GM than Bloom. I think about the roster everyday as I drive to work getting paid garbage.

The Cardinals only have 11 seasons that matter? That's a tortured outlook. It's a game.

I don’t blame you for missing the sarcasm.
But let’s think about it. In my lifetime, the Cardinals have been in nine World Series. That’s every 6.77 years. They won 5. That’s every 12.2 years of my life. That’s a very good performance based on the number of teams in each league. I only hope younger people see the same results instead of whining like snowflakes.

This is why us younger fans are excited about the rebuild. We want to experience a lengthy winning run and we're willing to endure a few down years to get the same winning you were privileged to see. I don't want 10 more years of hovering around .500 with mid tier free agent acquisitions hoping for the last wild card spot.

Good write. At 70 I’m good and excited to see if this model will actually work.

We been through the ups and downs before. Remember the 70’s?
The 80’s were also a roller coaster ride. I don’t remember the 90’s being great either.

[Carp4Cy]

It's wrong. Cards will win more games in 2026 than 2025

Gorman, Walker and Scott are going to improve
Wetherholt will be similar in WAR to Donovan
Arenado won't be missed as Fermin, Saggese will be fine
Pitching Depth will be better
Bullpen fine

We will be missing Willson, Helsley, Gray, and our AS, Donovan. That's a LOT to overcome. Our Offense probably isn't going to organically improve enough to offset losing 2 of our best hitters. Not with Oli still here. We also won a lot more games than we lost when Gray and Helsely pitched the past 2 years. That's a tall order to fill in for with quantity instead of quality.

[RichieRichSTL]

66 Wins y'all.
Just 66 wins are projected.
I'm sure you've seen this.
We have some on here that are clouded into thinking this team is better than last year.
I think that is 2nd worst projected, just ahead of Colorado.
But, according to Bloom, we are going to be competitive in 2026?
Bloom the Gaslighter.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

Why do you care? Would 77 make you feel better? What about 81? Would that make you feel like a winner? Get a different hobby if you can’t deal wit th a few down years.

Bully is a charter member of the short attention span club. They are only interested with the 2026 MLB W/L record. Nothing else matters, except the 2026 MLB payroll. Any number below $170M will result in extreme outrage and wailing about DeWallet.

The new regime's cleanup and reinvestment in development means zero to this bunch. We may need to call the waaambulance.

I don’t know why they would be more upset about 50 wins than they would about 75 wins.

50 wins would mean their talent level in the majors--the starting point of a rebuild is a disaster. The minors and future trades/FAs can only supply so much talent. You have to have some developing on the team now.