An exercise in roster construction

[Dicktar2023]

Yes, but you also need to develop stars. That's where this club's failure has been astonishing.

[sikeston bulldog2]

Yes, but you also need to develop stars. That's where this club's failure has been astonishing.

The stars we did develop have faded. The farm will need to produce. This will include an astute drafting program, developing system, and aggressive transition to the roster.

[Dicktar2023]

Yes, but you also need to develop stars. That's where this club's failure has been astonishing.

The stars we did develop have faded. The farm will need to produce. This will include an astute drafting program, developing system, and aggressive transition to the roster.

Let's not just gloss over this. What would you say was the last home-grown star this organization produced?

Let's say peak Matt Carpenter was a "star." That peak was 8 years ago.

If you don't consider Carpenter a star, then the next option is...er, um...Wainwright?

Let that sink in. It's easy to say, oh, they just need to draft and develop like they used to. But the truth is, they've been bad at this for at least a decade now. Arguably much longer.

[sikeston bulldog2]

Yes, but you also need to develop stars. That's where this club's failure has been astonishing.

The stars we did develop have faded. The farm will need to produce. This will include an astute drafting program, developing system, and aggressive transition to the roster.

Let's not just gloss over this. What would you say was the last home-grown star this organization produced?

Let's say peak Matt Carpenter was a "star." That peak was 8 years ago.

If you don't consider Carpenter a star, then the next option is...er, um...Wainwright?

Let that sink in. It's easy to say, oh, they just need to draft and develop like they used to. But the truth is, they've been bad at this for at least a decade now. Arguably much longer.

I hear ya. And no face of the franchise to accompany this delima. I was gonna reference Pujols and Molina and Waino as the last stars.

[Youboughtit]

Ok - let's say for a moment that you believe in fWAR (not hard for me, maybe hard for some of you) and you want to use it as a guideline for construting a roster to win in both the regular season and postseason.

So you plan to pull together a team with 95 win regular season talent (47.4 fWAR). That roster should get you into the postseason. Now, how would you want that fWAR distributed to improve your postseason chances?

Conventional wisdom for how to win in a short 5/7 game series would probably say:

(1) Two #1 SP-level starting pitchers and one mid-rotation SP with them
(2) An above average bullpen
(3) Three All-Star level or better guys in the lineup to bat between #1 and #5 in the order
?

Two #1 SPs - about 9.5 fWAR
One mid-rotation SP - about 2.8 fWAR
An above average bullpen - about 6.0 fWAR
Three All-Star level position players - about 15.0 fWAR

So that's 33.3 of your team's fWAR, leaving 14.1 fWAR spread over:

- Two more SPs (say 2.5 fWAR total)
- Six more guys in the starting lineup (say about 10 fWAR total)
- Your bench (say 1.5 fWAR total)

So you can see, if you are following this blueprint, you are going to have about eight guys (your last two SPs and the other six guys in your starting lineup) who are like 1.5 - 2.0 fWAR players - just solid, average regulars.

The upshot here being that developing guys who can be like a Burleson, Scott, Nootbaar, Liberatore, etc., even if they aren't "stars," is also really important for an organization trying to put together such a roster.

I like your roster construction concept. It shows how far they have to go to contend.

Yeah - if you want to convert that specifically to the Cardinals near term future:

Two #1 SPs - about 9.5 fWAR (Doyle + a SP added from outside the organization? Or another prospect they add by trading Donovan?)
One mid-rotation SP - about 2.8 fWAR (Mathews?, Liberatore if he takes a step forward?, Clarke?)
An above average bullpen - about 6.0 fWAR (Svanson, Leahy?, ?)
Three All-Star level position players - about 15.0 fWAR (Wetherholt, Winn?, Baez?, R. Rodriguez?, Herrera?, Or a player added from outside the organization?)

So that's 33.3 of your team's fWAR, leaving 14.1 fWAR spread over:

- Two more SPs (say 2.5 fWAR total) (Liberatore, Mathews, Dobbins, Fitts, Leahy?, etc.)
- Six more guys in the starting lineup (say about 10 fWAR total) (Burleson, Herrera, Scott, Bernal?, Nootbaar, Walker?, Gorman?)
- Your bench (say 1.5 fWAR total) (Saggese, Pages?/Crooks?, etc.)

As we've discussed, there will come a time, IF that young core develops 1 -3 superstars (JJ/Doyle/Baez/RR?) and the other second-tier guys you mention, that they will have to make key trades for top-tier guys in their walk year and spend big on FAs. It's just the reality of the modern game. And reality always wins. It will take major spending this organization has never done. I'm not holding my breath.

Ok so that window like the Pirates with Skenes will be 3 years max unless ownership by a miracle to sign the couple that become stars. The. I ask if they do extend their internal stars what will they be willing to spend on elite FA to put them into a WS. It all comes down to $

[TheFantasyStud]

This is a fantastic topic by the original poster. Thanks!!

We are estimated to have 30 - 37 Fwar this year in 2026
Just need to find another 10 Fwar.

Sure wish we could just sign to top end pitchers. Valdez and Gallen would get us close for example although I wish there were better aces available.

[renostl]

Ok - let's say for a moment that you believe in fWAR (not hard for me, maybe hard for some of you) and you want to use it as a guideline for construting a roster to win in both the regular season and postseason.

So you plan to pull together a team with 95 win regular season talent (47.4 fWAR). That roster should get you into the postseason. Now, how would you want that fWAR distributed to improve your postseason chances?

Conventional wisdom for how to win in a short 5/7 game series would probably say:

(1) Two #1 SP-level starting pitchers and one mid-rotation SP with them
(2) An above average bullpen
(3) Three All-Star level or better guys in the lineup to bat between #1 and #5 in the order
?

Two #1 SPs - about 9.5 fWAR
One mid-rotation SP - about 2.8 fWAR
An above average bullpen - about 6.0 fWAR
Three All-Star level position players - about 15.0 fWAR

So that's 33.3 of your team's fWAR, leaving 14.1 fWAR spread over:

- Two more SPs (say 2.5 fWAR total)
- Six more guys in the starting lineup (say about 10 fWAR total)
- Your bench (say 1.5 fWAR total)

So you can see, if you are following this blueprint, you are going to have about eight guys (your last two SPs and the other six guys in your starting lineup) who are like 1.5 - 2.0 fWAR players - just solid, average regulars.

The upshot here being that developing guys who can be like a Burleson, Scott, Nootbaar, Liberatore, etc., even if they aren't "stars," is also really important for an organization trying to put together such a roster.

I like your roster construction concept. It shows how far they have to go to contend.

Yeah - if you want to convert that specifically to the Cardinals near term future:

Two #1 SPs - about 9.5 fWAR (Doyle + a SP added from outside the organization? Or another prospect they add by trading Donovan?)
One mid-rotation SP - about 2.8 fWAR (Mathews?, Liberatore if he takes a step forward?, Clarke?)
An above average bullpen - about 6.0 fWAR (Svanson, Leahy?, ?)
Three All-Star level position players - about 15.0 fWAR (Wetherholt, Winn?, Baez?, R. Rodriguez?, Herrera?, Or a player added from outside the organization?)

So that's 33.3 of your team's fWAR, leaving 14.1 fWAR spread over:

- Two more SPs (say 2.5 fWAR total) (Liberatore, Mathews, Dobbins, Fitts, Leahy?, etc.)
- Six more guys in the starting lineup (say about 10 fWAR total) (Burleson, Herrera, Scott, Bernal?, Nootbaar, Walker?, Gorman?)
- Your bench (say 1.5 fWAR total) (Saggese, Pages?/Crooks?, etc.)

As we've discussed, there will come a time, IF that young core develops 1 -3 superstars (JJ/Doyle/Baez/RR?) and the other second-tier guys you mention, that they will have to make key trades for top-tier guys in their walk year and spend big on FAs. It's just the reality of the modern game. And reality always wins. It will take major spending this organization has never done. I'm not holding my breath.

I *think* they would be able to add one front-of-rotation SP and one All-Star level position player at market rates and have Doyle, Wetherholt, Winn, Baez, etc. signed to some early long term extensions.

The squeeze, IMO, would come from - could they spend another $20+ million a year on that mid-rotation SP if they can't develop one?, how much could they afford to spend to build out an above average bullpen if they can't develop most of it internally?, how many more 1.5 - 2.0 fWAR solid, average guys could they afford to buy if they can't develop all the ones they need internally?

IMO
The almost always available player is pitching in a rental form for the stretch run.
High side talent with contained cost. A team also only does additions of this kind when
they are close.

[JuanAgosto]

Johnny Mojangle's roster construction went like this:

1. Who is the easiest player to sign? (He was lazy).
2. Who is the cheapest player to sign?
3. Who is the lowest-hanging fruit out there?
4. Who will make for a good bobble head?