An exercise in roster construction

[mattmitchl44]

Ok - let's say for a moment that you believe in fWAR (not hard for me, maybe hard for some of you) and you want to use it as a guideline for construting a roster to win in both the regular season and postseason.

So you plan to pull together a team with 95 win regular season talent (47.4 fWAR). That roster should get you into the postseason. Now, how would you want that fWAR distributed to improve your postseason chances?

Conventional wisdom for how to win in a short 5/7 game series would probably say:

(1) Two #1 SP-level starting pitchers and one mid-rotation SP with them
(2) An above average bullpen
(3) Three All-Star level or better guys in the lineup to bat between #1 and #5 in the order
?

Two #1 SPs - about 9.5 fWAR
One mid-rotation SP - about 2.8 fWAR
An above average bullpen - about 6.0 fWAR
Three All-Star level position players - about 15.0 fWAR

So that's 33.3 of your team's fWAR, leaving 14.1 fWAR spread over:

- Two more SPs (say 2.5 fWAR total)
- Six more guys in the starting lineup (say about 10 fWAR total)
- Your bench (say 1.5 fWAR total)

So you can see, if you are following this blueprint, you are going to have about eight guys (your last two SPs and the other six guys in your starting lineup) who are like 1.5 - 2.0 fWAR players - just solid, average regulars.

The upshot here being that developing guys who can be like a Burleson, Scott, Nootbaar, Liberatore, etc., even if they aren't "stars," is also really important for an organization trying to put together such a roster.

[ClassicO]

Ok - let's say for a moment that you believe in fWAR (not hard for me, maybe hard for some of you) and you want to use it as a guideline for construting a roster to win in both the regular season and postseason.

So you plan to pull together a team with 95 win regular season talent (47.4 fWAR). That roster should get you into the postseason. Now, how would you want that fWAR distributed to improve your postseason chances?

Conventional wisdom for how to win in a short 5/7 game series would probably say:

(1) Two #1 SP-level starting pitchers and one mid-rotation SP with them
(2) An above average bullpen
(3) Three All-Star level or better guys in the lineup to bat between #1 and #5 in the order
?

Two #1 SPs - about 9.5 fWAR
One mid-rotation SP - about 2.8 fWAR
An above average bullpen - about 6.0 fWAR
Three All-Star level position players - about 15.0 fWAR

So that's 33.3 of your team's fWAR, leaving 14.1 fWAR spread over:

- Two more SPs (say 2.5 fWAR total)
- Six more guys in the starting lineup (say about 10 fWAR total)
- Your bench (say 1.5 fWAR total)

So you can see, if you are following this blueprint, you are going to have about eight guys (your last two SPs and the other six guys in your starting lineup) who are like 1.5 - 2.0 fWAR players - just solid, average regulars.

The upshot here being that developing guys who can be like a Burleson, Scott, Nootbaar, Liberatore, etc., even if they aren't "stars," is also really important for an organization trying to put together such a roster.

I like your roster construction concept. It shows how far they have to go to contend.

[CCard]

Ok - let's say for a moment that you believe in fWAR (not hard for me, maybe hard for some of you) and you want to use it as a guideline for construting a roster to win in both the regular season and postseason.

So you plan to pull together a team with 95 win regular season talent (47.4 fWAR). That roster should get you into the postseason. Now, how would you want that fWAR distributed to improve your postseason chances?

Conventional wisdom for how to win in a short 5/7 game series would probably say:

(1) Two #1 SP-level starting pitchers and one mid-rotation SP with them
(2) An above average bullpen
(3) Three All-Star level or better guys in the lineup to bat between #1 and #5 in the order
?

Two #1 SPs - about 9.5 fWAR
One mid-rotation SP - about 2.8 fWAR
An above average bullpen - about 6.0 fWAR
Three All-Star level position players - about 15.0 fWAR

So that's 33.3 of your team's fWAR, leaving 14.1 fWAR spread over:

- Two more SPs (say 2.5 fWAR total)
- Six more guys in the starting lineup (say about 10 fWAR total)
- Your bench (say 1.5 fWAR total)

So you can see, if you are following this blueprint, you are going to have about eight guys (your last two SPs and the other six guys in your starting lineup) who are like 1.5 - 2.0 fWAR players - just solid, average regulars.

The upshot here being that developing guys who can be like a Burleson, Scott, Nootbaar, Liberatore, etc., even if they aren't "stars," is also really important for an organization trying to put together such a roster.

While I don't live and die with the numbers because they can lie, I'll agree with the premise you need two elite starting pitchers. At the very least they give you a fighting chance in a short series. You also need 3 or 4 above average offensive weapons, though that doesn't mean you can have festering black holes at the other spots. Even one weak spot can cause problems. You need at least 3 really good relievers and then the rest can be average. It's kind of important to have relievers that can go on back to back days too. The problem with the numbers is they can lie or give you a false perception. For example, if you're team is in a division with 1 or 2 very poor teams the you get the possible advantage of padding your stats and wins. Also this plays out some if you're playing inter league against the AL east or the AL central. As the east is much more of a beast (Usually). So the numbers aren't so cut and dried. Once you reach the playoffs though, even one pitcher can change the outcome of a series. Last year it was Yamamoto for the Dodgers who was basically unbeatable. He even pitched in relief. Back in the Cards run in the 60's it was Bob Gibson. Dominant. So my list:
1. Two dominant starters at a minimum.
2. At least 3 dominant relievers.
3. Above average 1-5 in the lineup with no black holes anywhere. Sometimes an unlikely hero will emerge. Like Eckstein, Freese, etc
This is kind of the bare minimum in my mind but more is obviously better. This is entirely attainable with the team they now have with a few additions. Now they need two dominant starters where before they only needed one. Now they have to replace Contreras production where before they could have just added to it. They really desperately need Walker, Gorman, Scott and Nootbaar to pick up the pace and develop. I'm afraid Noot just isn't reliable enough. I fear Gorman can't or won't adjust. I do look for Walker and Scott to improve.

[mattmitchl44]

Ok - let's say for a moment that you believe in fWAR (not hard for me, maybe hard for some of you) and you want to use it as a guideline for construting a roster to win in both the regular season and postseason.

So you plan to pull together a team with 95 win regular season talent (47.4 fWAR). That roster should get you into the postseason. Now, how would you want that fWAR distributed to improve your postseason chances?

Conventional wisdom for how to win in a short 5/7 game series would probably say:

(1) Two #1 SP-level starting pitchers and one mid-rotation SP with them
(2) An above average bullpen
(3) Three All-Star level or better guys in the lineup to bat between #1 and #5 in the order
?

Two #1 SPs - about 9.5 fWAR
One mid-rotation SP - about 2.8 fWAR
An above average bullpen - about 6.0 fWAR
Three All-Star level position players - about 15.0 fWAR

So that's 33.3 of your team's fWAR, leaving 14.1 fWAR spread over:

- Two more SPs (say 2.5 fWAR total)
- Six more guys in the starting lineup (say about 10 fWAR total)
- Your bench (say 1.5 fWAR total)

So you can see, if you are following this blueprint, you are going to have about eight guys (your last two SPs and the other six guys in your starting lineup) who are like 1.5 - 2.0 fWAR players - just solid, average regulars.

The upshot here being that developing guys who can be like a Burleson, Scott, Nootbaar, Liberatore, etc., even if they aren't "stars," is also really important for an organization trying to put together such a roster.

I like your roster construction concept. It shows how far they have to go to contend.

Yeah - if you want to convert that specifically to the Cardinals near term future:

Two #1 SPs - about 9.5 fWAR (Doyle + a SP added from outside the organization? Or another prospect they add by trading Donovan?)
One mid-rotation SP - about 2.8 fWAR (Mathews?, Liberatore if he takes a step forward?, Clarke?)
An above average bullpen - about 6.0 fWAR (Svanson, Leahy?, ?)
Three All-Star level position players - about 15.0 fWAR (Wetherholt, Winn?, Baez?, R. Rodriguez?, Herrera?, Or a player added from outside the organization?)

So that's 33.3 of your team's fWAR, leaving 14.1 fWAR spread over:

- Two more SPs (say 2.5 fWAR total) (Liberatore, Mathews, Dobbins, Fitts, Leahy?, etc.)
- Six more guys in the starting lineup (say about 10 fWAR total) (Burleson, Herrera, Scott, Bernal?, Nootbaar, Walker?, Gorman?)
- Your bench (say 1.5 fWAR total) (Saggese, Pages?/Crooks?, etc.)

[ClassicO]

Ok - let's say for a moment that you believe in fWAR (not hard for me, maybe hard for some of you) and you want to use it as a guideline for construting a roster to win in both the regular season and postseason.

So you plan to pull together a team with 95 win regular season talent (47.4 fWAR). That roster should get you into the postseason. Now, how would you want that fWAR distributed to improve your postseason chances?

Conventional wisdom for how to win in a short 5/7 game series would probably say:

(1) Two #1 SP-level starting pitchers and one mid-rotation SP with them
(2) An above average bullpen
(3) Three All-Star level or better guys in the lineup to bat between #1 and #5 in the order
?

Two #1 SPs - about 9.5 fWAR
One mid-rotation SP - about 2.8 fWAR
An above average bullpen - about 6.0 fWAR
Three All-Star level position players - about 15.0 fWAR

So that's 33.3 of your team's fWAR, leaving 14.1 fWAR spread over:

- Two more SPs (say 2.5 fWAR total)
- Six more guys in the starting lineup (say about 10 fWAR total)
- Your bench (say 1.5 fWAR total)

So you can see, if you are following this blueprint, you are going to have about eight guys (your last two SPs and the other six guys in your starting lineup) who are like 1.5 - 2.0 fWAR players - just solid, average regulars.

The upshot here being that developing guys who can be like a Burleson, Scott, Nootbaar, Liberatore, etc., even if they aren't "stars," is also really important for an organization trying to put together such a roster.

I like your roster construction concept. It shows how far they have to go to contend.

Yeah - if you want to convert that specifically to the Cardinals near term future:

Two #1 SPs - about 9.5 fWAR (Doyle + a SP added from outside the organization? Or another prospect they add by trading Donovan?)
One mid-rotation SP - about 2.8 fWAR (Mathews?, Liberatore if he takes a step forward?, Clarke?)
An above average bullpen - about 6.0 fWAR (Svanson, Leahy?, ?)
Three All-Star level position players - about 15.0 fWAR (Wetherholt, Winn?, Baez?, R. Rodriguez?, Herrera?, Or a player added from outside the organization?)

So that's 33.3 of your team's fWAR, leaving 14.1 fWAR spread over:

- Two more SPs (say 2.5 fWAR total) (Liberatore, Mathews, Dobbins, Fitts, Leahy?, etc.)
- Six more guys in the starting lineup (say about 10 fWAR total) (Burleson, Herrera, Scott, Bernal?, Nootbaar, Walker?, Gorman?)
- Your bench (say 1.5 fWAR total) (Saggese, Pages?/Crooks?, etc.)

As we've discussed, there will come a time, IF that young core develops 1 -3 superstars (JJ/Doyle/Baez/RR?) and the other second-tier guys you mention, that they will have to make key trades for top-tier guys in their walk year and spend big on FAs. It's just the reality of the modern game. And reality always wins. It will take major spending this organization has never done. I'm not holding my breath.

[mattmitchl44]

Ok - let's say for a moment that you believe in fWAR (not hard for me, maybe hard for some of you) and you want to use it as a guideline for construting a roster to win in both the regular season and postseason.

So you plan to pull together a team with 95 win regular season talent (47.4 fWAR). That roster should get you into the postseason. Now, how would you want that fWAR distributed to improve your postseason chances?

Conventional wisdom for how to win in a short 5/7 game series would probably say:

(1) Two #1 SP-level starting pitchers and one mid-rotation SP with them
(2) An above average bullpen
(3) Three All-Star level or better guys in the lineup to bat between #1 and #5 in the order
?

Two #1 SPs - about 9.5 fWAR
One mid-rotation SP - about 2.8 fWAR
An above average bullpen - about 6.0 fWAR
Three All-Star level position players - about 15.0 fWAR

So that's 33.3 of your team's fWAR, leaving 14.1 fWAR spread over:

- Two more SPs (say 2.5 fWAR total)
- Six more guys in the starting lineup (say about 10 fWAR total)
- Your bench (say 1.5 fWAR total)

So you can see, if you are following this blueprint, you are going to have about eight guys (your last two SPs and the other six guys in your starting lineup) who are like 1.5 - 2.0 fWAR players - just solid, average regulars.

The upshot here being that developing guys who can be like a Burleson, Scott, Nootbaar, Liberatore, etc., even if they aren't "stars," is also really important for an organization trying to put together such a roster.

I like your roster construction concept. It shows how far they have to go to contend.

Yeah - if you want to convert that specifically to the Cardinals near term future:

Two #1 SPs - about 9.5 fWAR (Doyle + a SP added from outside the organization? Or another prospect they add by trading Donovan?)
One mid-rotation SP - about 2.8 fWAR (Mathews?, Liberatore if he takes a step forward?, Clarke?)
An above average bullpen - about 6.0 fWAR (Svanson, Leahy?, ?)
Three All-Star level position players - about 15.0 fWAR (Wetherholt, Winn?, Baez?, R. Rodriguez?, Herrera?, Or a player added from outside the organization?)

So that's 33.3 of your team's fWAR, leaving 14.1 fWAR spread over:

- Two more SPs (say 2.5 fWAR total) (Liberatore, Mathews, Dobbins, Fitts, Leahy?, etc.)
- Six more guys in the starting lineup (say about 10 fWAR total) (Burleson, Herrera, Scott, Bernal?, Nootbaar, Walker?, Gorman?)
- Your bench (say 1.5 fWAR total) (Saggese, Pages?/Crooks?, etc.)

As we've discussed, there will come a time, IF that young core develops 1 -3 superstars (JJ/Doyle/Baez/RR?) and the other second-tier guys you mention, that they will have to make key trades for top-tier guys in their walk year and spend big on FAs. It's just the reality of the modern game. And reality always wins. It will take major spending this organization has never done. I'm not holding my breath.

I *think* they would be able to add one front-of-rotation SP and one All-Star level position player at market rates and have Doyle, Wetherholt, Winn, Baez, etc. signed to some early long term extensions.

The squeeze, IMO, would come from - could they spend another $20+ million a year on that mid-rotation SP if they can't develop one?, how much could they afford to spend to build out an above average bullpen if they can't develop most of it internally?, how many more 1.5 - 2.0 fWAR solid, average guys could they afford to buy if they can't develop all the ones they need internally?

[ClassicO]

Ok - let's say for a moment that you believe in fWAR (not hard for me, maybe hard for some of you) and you want to use it as a guideline for construting a roster to win in both the regular season and postseason.

So you plan to pull together a team with 95 win regular season talent (47.4 fWAR). That roster should get you into the postseason. Now, how would you want that fWAR distributed to improve your postseason chances?

Conventional wisdom for how to win in a short 5/7 game series would probably say:

(1) Two #1 SP-level starting pitchers and one mid-rotation SP with them
(2) An above average bullpen
(3) Three All-Star level or better guys in the lineup to bat between #1 and #5 in the order
?

Two #1 SPs - about 9.5 fWAR
One mid-rotation SP - about 2.8 fWAR
An above average bullpen - about 6.0 fWAR
Three All-Star level position players - about 15.0 fWAR

So that's 33.3 of your team's fWAR, leaving 14.1 fWAR spread over:

- Two more SPs (say 2.5 fWAR total)
- Six more guys in the starting lineup (say about 10 fWAR total)
- Your bench (say 1.5 fWAR total)

So you can see, if you are following this blueprint, you are going to have about eight guys (your last two SPs and the other six guys in your starting lineup) who are like 1.5 - 2.0 fWAR players - just solid, average regulars.

The upshot here being that developing guys who can be like a Burleson, Scott, Nootbaar, Liberatore, etc., even if they aren't "stars," is also really important for an organization trying to put together such a roster.

I like your roster construction concept. It shows how far they have to go to contend.

Yeah - if you want to convert that specifically to the Cardinals near term future:

Two #1 SPs - about 9.5 fWAR (Doyle + a SP added from outside the organization? Or another prospect they add by trading Donovan?)
One mid-rotation SP - about 2.8 fWAR (Mathews?, Liberatore if he takes a step forward?, Clarke?)
An above average bullpen - about 6.0 fWAR (Svanson, Leahy?, ?)
Three All-Star level position players - about 15.0 fWAR (Wetherholt, Winn?, Baez?, R. Rodriguez?, Herrera?, Or a player added from outside the organization?)

So that's 33.3 of your team's fWAR, leaving 14.1 fWAR spread over:

- Two more SPs (say 2.5 fWAR total) (Liberatore, Mathews, Dobbins, Fitts, Leahy?, etc.)
- Six more guys in the starting lineup (say about 10 fWAR total) (Burleson, Herrera, Scott, Bernal?, Nootbaar, Walker?, Gorman?)
- Your bench (say 1.5 fWAR total) (Saggese, Pages?/Crooks?, etc.)

As we've discussed, there will come a time, IF that young core develops 1 -3 superstars (JJ/Doyle/Baez/RR?) and the other second-tier guys you mention, that they will have to make key trades for top-tier guys in their walk year and spend big on FAs. It's just the reality of the modern game. And reality always wins. It will take major spending this organization has never done. I'm not holding my breath.

I *think* they would be able to add one front-of-rotation SP and one All-Star level position player at market rates and have Doyle, Wetherholt, Winn, Baez, etc. signed to some early long term extensions.

The squeeze, IMO, would come from - could they spend another $20+ million a year on that mid-rotation SP if they can't develop one?, how much could they afford to spend to build out an above average bullpen if they can't develop most of it internally?, how many more 1.5 - 2.0 fWAR solid, average guys could they afford to buy if they can't develop all the ones they need internally?

I respect your opinion, but I think it will take more than that to win a World Series (I am one of those knuckleheads who thinks that's the only goal). The problem is that spending more on big FAs is a crapshoot. But you don't win the WS these days w/o a good amount of risk - and a great amount of spending - mostly on offense.

The last 10 years have seen this re: World Series winners:

Year - Team - offense -- spending
2025 Dodgers #1 --- 2nd
2024 Dodgers #1 --- 3rd
2023 Rangers #4 --- 4th
2022 Astros #8 --- 8th
2021 Braves #10 --- 10th
2020 Dodgers #1 --- 1st
2019 Nationals #3 --- 7th
2018 Red Sox #1 --- 1st
2017 Astros #12 --- 17th!
2016 Cubs - #4 --- 5th

Average - #4.5 offense --- 4.6 spending (very good correlation)
Good news - 8 different teams have won WS
Bad news - LAD is on a roll and it now may take at least a #4-5 offense and 4th-5th in spending.

The other key that the Cards have sucked eggs with is International free agents:
The last seven WS winners.

Dodgers - 4 in '25 (but they were all major ones)
Dodgers - 9 in ‘24
Rangers - 11 in ‘23
Astros - 9 in ‘22;
Braves - 9 in ‘21;
LA - 11 in ‘20;
Nats - 12 in ‘19

[rockondlouie]

I think you're a bit high matt:
"95 win regular season talent (47.4 fWAR). That roster should get you into the postseason"

2025
Reds 83

2023: 84-78 (Arizona Diamondbacks & Miami Marlins)
with Arizona reaching the World Series.

2022/2024:
2022 Phillies/Rays with 87
2024 Tigers/Royals with 86

I'd say a 37-39 fWAR (85-87 wins if I did this right) is the better target to get into the post season.

[mattmitchl44]

I think you're a bit high matt:
"95 win regular season talent (47.4 fWAR). That roster should get you into the postseason"

2025
Reds 83

2023: 84-78 (Arizona Diamondbacks & Miami Marlins)
with Arizona reaching the World Series.

2022/2024:
2022 Phillies/Rays with 87
2024 Tigers/Royals with 86

I'd say a 37-39 fWAR (85-87 wins if I did this right) is the better target to get into the post season.

If you build a roster that you think is going to have 47.4 fWAR/95 win talent going into the upcoming season, due to IL time during the season, some streaky regular season performance, random "luck" in one-run games, etc., you still might win only 86, 87 games if a lot broke the wrong way for you.

So even with projected 47.4 fWAR/95 win talent, there is still, maybe, a 10-15% chance (that is just a guess) you underperform (and the rest of the league overperforms) enough for you to just miss the playoffs.

[rockondlouie]

I think you're a bit high matt:
"95 win regular season talent (47.4 fWAR). That roster should get you into the postseason"

2025
Reds 83

2023: 84-78 (Arizona Diamondbacks & Miami Marlins)
with Arizona reaching the World Series.

2022/2024:
2022 Phillies/Rays with 87
2024 Tigers/Royals with 86

I'd say a 37-39 fWAR (85-87 wins if I did this right) is the better target to get into the post season.

If you build a roster that you think is going to have 47.4 fWAR/95 win talent going into the upcoming season, due to IL time during the season, some streaky regular season performance, random "luck" in one-run games, etc., you still might win only 86, 87 games if a lot broke the wrong way for you.

So even with projected 47.4 fWAR/95 win talent, there is still, maybe, a 10-15% chance (that is just a guess) you underperform (and the rest of the league overperforms) enough for you to just miss the playoffs.

I'd love that 47.4 fWAR too matt so we'd have that "cushion".

Let's hope we develop a few low cost star players over the next couple seasons AND THEN BDWJr ups the payroll to $185+M (the season after the new CBA is in place---2028) or we won't even come close to your 47.4 fWAR and may struggle to even get to my 37-39 fWAR.

[sikeston bulldog2]

I think you're a bit high matt:
"95 win regular season talent (47.4 fWAR). That roster should get you into the postseason"

2025
Reds 83

2023: 84-78 (Arizona Diamondbacks & Miami Marlins)
with Arizona reaching the World Series.

2022/2024:
2022 Phillies/Rays with 87
2024 Tigers/Royals with 86

I'd say a 37-39 fWAR (85-87 wins if I did this right) is the better target to get into the post season.

If you build a roster that you think is going to have 47.4 fWAR/95 win talent going into the upcoming season, due to IL time during the season, some streaky regular season performance, random "luck" in one-run games, etc., you still might win only 86, 87 games if a lot broke the wrong way for you.

So even with projected 47.4 fWAR/95 win talent, there is still, maybe, a 10-15% chance (that is just a guess) you underperform (and the rest of the league overperforms) enough for you to just miss the playoffs.

I'd love that 47.4 fWAR too matt so we'd have that "cushion".

Let's hope we develop a few low cost star players over the next couple seasons AND THEN BDWJr ups the payroll to $185+M (the season after the new CBA is in place---2028) or we won't even come close to your 47.4 fWAR and may struggle to even get to my 37-39 fWAR.

I think this is feasible. If this is not the intent, then a sale will be sorely needed.

[rockondlouie]

I think you're a bit high matt:
"95 win regular season talent (47.4 fWAR). That roster should get you into the postseason"

2025
Reds 83

2023: 84-78 (Arizona Diamondbacks & Miami Marlins)
with Arizona reaching the World Series.

2022/2024:
2022 Phillies/Rays with 87
2024 Tigers/Royals with 86

I'd say a 37-39 fWAR (85-87 wins if I did this right) is the better target to get into the post season.

If you build a roster that you think is going to have 47.4 fWAR/95 win talent going into the upcoming season, due to IL time during the season, some streaky regular season performance, random "luck" in one-run games, etc., you still might win only 86, 87 games if a lot broke the wrong way for you.

So even with projected 47.4 fWAR/95 win talent, there is still, maybe, a 10-15% chance (that is just a guess) you underperform (and the rest of the league overperforms) enough for you to just miss the playoffs.

I'd love that 47.4 fWAR too matt so we'd have that "cushion".

Let's hope we develop a few low cost star players over the next couple seasons AND THEN BDWJr ups the payroll to $185+M (the season after the new CBA is in place---2028) or we won't even come close to your 47.4 fWAR and may struggle to even get to my 37-39 fWAR.

I think this is feasible. If this is not the intent, then a sale will be sorely needed.

I haven't been of a mind that BDWJr would become a seller BDog, that is until he began this gutting of the teams payroll prior to the new CBA.

JMO, but I've started to wonder if he's not happy w/the outcome of the new CBA and at his age (85 this yr) he might actually become a seller.

It's obvious Fredo (aka: BDWIII) isn't a baseball man like his grandfather & father, seems he'd rather take his share and go into another business.

Likely will never happen, but for the first time my ears have perked up.

[mattmitchl44]

I think you're a bit high matt:
"95 win regular season talent (47.4 fWAR). That roster should get you into the postseason"

2025
Reds 83

2023: 84-78 (Arizona Diamondbacks & Miami Marlins)
with Arizona reaching the World Series.

2022/2024:
2022 Phillies/Rays with 87
2024 Tigers/Royals with 86

I'd say a 37-39 fWAR (85-87 wins if I did this right) is the better target to get into the post season.

If you build a roster that you think is going to have 47.4 fWAR/95 win talent going into the upcoming season, due to IL time during the season, some streaky regular season performance, random "luck" in one-run games, etc., you still might win only 86, 87 games if a lot broke the wrong way for you.

So even with projected 47.4 fWAR/95 win talent, there is still, maybe, a 10-15% chance (that is just a guess) you underperform (and the rest of the league overperforms) enough for you to just miss the playoffs.

I'd love that 47.4 fWAR too matt so we'd have that "cushion".

Let's hope we develop a few low cost star players over the next couple seasons AND THEN BDWJr ups the payroll to $185+M (the season after the new CBA is in place---2028) or we won't even come close to your 47.4 fWAR and may struggle to even get to my 37-39 fWAR.

I'll agree that in some season along the way, they'll be looking to get to 37-39 fWAR. But in my view that can't be final destination if they are going compete with the Dodgers, etc.

Ultimately, I think a plan to go through 37-39 fWAR and get to 45, 46, 47 fWAR looks different than a plan which just has 37, 38, 39 fWAR as an acceptable end goal.

[sikeston bulldog2]

I think you're a bit high matt:
"95 win regular season talent (47.4 fWAR). That roster should get you into the postseason"

2025
Reds 83

2023: 84-78 (Arizona Diamondbacks & Miami Marlins)
with Arizona reaching the World Series.

2022/2024:
2022 Phillies/Rays with 87
2024 Tigers/Royals with 86

I'd say a 37-39 fWAR (85-87 wins if I did this right) is the better target to get into the post season.

If you build a roster that you think is going to have 47.4 fWAR/95 win talent going into the upcoming season, due to IL time during the season, some streaky regular season performance, random "luck" in one-run games, etc., you still might win only 86, 87 games if a lot broke the wrong way for you.

So even with projected 47.4 fWAR/95 win talent, there is still, maybe, a 10-15% chance (that is just a guess) you underperform (and the rest of the league overperforms) enough for you to just miss the playoffs.

I'd love that 47.4 fWAR too matt so we'd have that "cushion".

Let's hope we develop a few low cost star players over the next couple seasons AND THEN BDWJr ups the payroll to $185+M (the season after the new CBA is in place---2028) or we won't even come close to your 47.4 fWAR and may struggle to even get to my 37-39 fWAR.

I think this is feasible. If this is not the intent, then a sale will be sorely needed.

I haven't been of a mind that BDWJr would become a seller BDog, that is until he began this gutting of the teams payroll prior to the new CBA.

JMO, but I've started to wonder if he's not happy w/the outcome of the new CBA and at his age (85 this yr) he might actually become a seller.

It's obvious Fredo (aka: BDWIII) isn't a baseball man like his grandfather & father, seems he'd rather take his share and go into another business.

Likely will never happen, but for the first time my ears have perked up.

The landscape is not just now changing; it’s been changed. We just got so far behind that the scenery looks new. No.

So. If the owner Cant no longer run a business effectively in the now well established environment, then he should sell.

[rockondlouie]

I think you're a bit high matt:
"95 win regular season talent (47.4 fWAR). That roster should get you into the postseason"

2025
Reds 83

2023: 84-78 (Arizona Diamondbacks & Miami Marlins)
with Arizona reaching the World Series.

2022/2024:
2022 Phillies/Rays with 87
2024 Tigers/Royals with 86

I'd say a 37-39 fWAR (85-87 wins if I did this right) is the better target to get into the post season.

If you build a roster that you think is going to have 47.4 fWAR/95 win talent going into the upcoming season, due to IL time during the season, some streaky regular season performance, random "luck" in one-run games, etc., you still might win only 86, 87 games if a lot broke the wrong way for you.

So even with projected 47.4 fWAR/95 win talent, there is still, maybe, a 10-15% chance (that is just a guess) you underperform (and the rest of the league overperforms) enough for you to just miss the playoffs.

I'd love that 47.4 fWAR too matt so we'd have that "cushion".

Let's hope we develop a few low cost star players over the next couple seasons AND THEN BDWJr ups the payroll to $185+M (the season after the new CBA is in place---2028) or we won't even come close to your 47.4 fWAR and may struggle to even get to my 37-39 fWAR.

I'll agree that in some season along the way, they'll be looking to get to 37-39 fWAR. But in my view that can't be final destination if they are going compete with the Dodgers, etc.

Ultimately, I think a plan to go through 37-39 fWAR and get to 45, 46, 47 fWAR looks different than a plan which just has 37, 38, 39 fWAR as an acceptable end goal.

Agree 100%

That fWAR was just my absolutely minimum starting point to get the Cardinals back into playoff mode.

We're NOT going to be re-entering the playoffs w/that 45+ fWAR unless BDWJr does a 180 and increases payroll dramatically sooner, rather than later (NOT HAPPENING).

BUT w/a better constructed roster built around developing our own young talent (re: inexpensive) BDWJr can then let C. Bloom fill in the gaps and spend the "big" money on established major league players to get us to the mid 40's fWAR.

[rockondlouie]

I think you're a bit high matt:
"95 win regular season talent (47.4 fWAR). That roster should get you into the postseason"

2025
Reds 83

2023: 84-78 (Arizona Diamondbacks & Miami Marlins)
with Arizona reaching the World Series.

2022/2024:
2022 Phillies/Rays with 87
2024 Tigers/Royals with 86

I'd say a 37-39 fWAR (85-87 wins if I did this right) is the better target to get into the post season.

If you build a roster that you think is going to have 47.4 fWAR/95 win talent going into the upcoming season, due to IL time during the season, some streaky regular season performance, random "luck" in one-run games, etc., you still might win only 86, 87 games if a lot broke the wrong way for you.

So even with projected 47.4 fWAR/95 win talent, there is still, maybe, a 10-15% chance (that is just a guess) you underperform (and the rest of the league overperforms) enough for you to just miss the playoffs.

I'd love that 47.4 fWAR too matt so we'd have that "cushion".

Let's hope we develop a few low cost star players over the next couple seasons AND THEN BDWJr ups the payroll to $185+M (the season after the new CBA is in place---2028) or we won't even come close to your 47.4 fWAR and may struggle to even get to my 37-39 fWAR.

I think this is feasible. If this is not the intent, then a sale will be sorely needed.

I haven't been of a mind that BDWJr would become a seller BDog, that is until he began this gutting of the teams payroll prior to the new CBA.

JMO, but I've started to wonder if he's not happy w/the outcome of the new CBA and at his age (85 this yr) he might actually become a seller.

It's obvious Fredo (aka: BDWIII) isn't a baseball man like his grandfather & father, seems he'd rather take his share and go into another business.

Likely will never happen, but for the first time my ears have perked up.

The landscape is not just now changing; it’s been changed. We just got so far behind that the scenery looks new. No.

So. If the owner Cant no longer run a business effectively in the now well established environment, then he should sell.

As the saying goes:

"The game may have passed BDWJr by"

payroll wise.

Without a pipeline of young talent (hopefully coming) AND a $185+M payroll, the odds of competing for WS flag #12 are slim.