Question for those not wanting to Rebuild

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renostl
Forum User
Posts: 3588
Joined: 23 May 2024 12:40 pm

Re: Question for those not wanting to Rebuild

Post by renostl »

CCard wrote: 22 Dec 2025 21:03 pm
renostl wrote: 22 Dec 2025 16:13 pm
CCard wrote: 22 Dec 2025 12:33 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 21 Dec 2025 06:10 am
CCard wrote: 21 Dec 2025 05:52 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 21 Dec 2025 05:30 am
CCard wrote: 20 Dec 2025 17:42 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 20 Dec 2025 08:08 am
CCard wrote: 20 Dec 2025 07:44 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 20 Dec 2025 05:38 am
CCard wrote: 19 Dec 2025 20:12 pm
Ronnie Dobbs wrote: 19 Dec 2025 08:02 am
Yes, and why did they do it? They didn't just start from scratch and were immediately successful. It took building of the developmental infrastructure to get it in place so that when they were at a point where they could be truly competitive, they could start bringing in those more established, potentially more expensive players.

We have to build that again (you know, reduild) to get to that point where we were in the past. Unless you think that we are producing players like we did in the first 10 years of the 2000s, then I would think you would agree that development needs more improvement.
Your point is pure foolishness. The Cards had the 16th highest payroll in baseball in 2025. For this franchise that's a disgrace. You all get on here and justify it, kissing DeWitt's a$%. You make me sick. They could easily be spending 50 million more, easily. Imagine what that could turn this team into.
An 81 win team?
Add an rbi guy to the lineup and a top of the rotation pitcher. Shore up the bullpen with some quality and not trade away one of the better Lefty relievers in baseball. Still think it's an 81 win team? This was with Gray, now they have to replace that talent.
If they had kept Gray, maybe 84 or 85 wins instead of 81. But that's about it.
You're guessing again. It's not a good look for a stats guy.
Gray was worth 3.6 fWAR last year, and he'll be another year over 30 in 2026. So 3 wins, maybe 4, is a good estimate.

All of your machinations keep coming back to the same place, an 84, 85 - maybe if most everything breaks right 86, 87 - win team. Unless you magically have the Cardinals increasing payroll to $210, $215, $225 million, that's where this roster is basically stuck until they develop more young talent.
Cards won the WS with an 83 win team. You get in the playoffs and you take your chances. Lightning can and does strike. Or you can take years, build some mythical beast and get bounced in the first series you play against a hot team. Ask the Yankees and the WS Champion Red Sox. We should be able to agree that a payroll of 120 to 130 is a disgrace for the Cardinal organization.
That's exactly the thinking the Cardinals should, and apparently are, trying to get away from.

Having to go through more rounds of playoffs than in 2006 works against you. Having to likely go through multiple teams now like the Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, etc. who are always loaded because of how much more money they can spend works against you.

And, if they are not in a position where they can build a more solid 90+, or better yet 92+, win roster, I don't care whether they spend $50 million, $100 million, or $150 million. I'm not offended, or pacified, by how much money they spend or don't spend if they aren't competitive.
You don't have to spend $350 million to compete with the Dodgers but you do have to spend $180-$2XX. You aren't going to compete with any top tier teams fielding a $100 million or less team. You'll just be a farm team then. Ask Pittsburgh or Miami about that.
I don't disagree with the POV that they will have to spend.
How much can be discussed but for the sake of this question lets
say the $180M you mentioned.

Do you want $40 million of that going to 1 year of Gray?
Perhaps if he's the last piece, he not. WC can be debated but
acknowledge that there plenty of rationale to move him.

The Cards had bad money on the books the last 2+ seasons.
SG, WC, MM, SM, NA amounted to $88M add PG $113M on horses
that could no longer carry. That means every position filled
with prospects has to work out with plus production.

JMO, but if or when they spend it needs to be on different
players and the way to get there is to clear the books.
The roster needs to still be worked out
before I'll become more critical.
They could have kept Gray and spent 30 million on a top tier pitcher and still had money left over for other needs. That would put this team in contention for a playoff spot. They need top tier pitching. Now they have none. Who is there number 1 starter? It certainly isn't Pallante(who should be in the bullpen). McGreevy? He better show more than he has. Some of these other minor league untested pitchers? Not hardly.
I think that would be a terrible idea and I believe teams should always compete.
That move has $90M on WC, SG, and the $30M SP. Leaves $90 for the rest of the team
assuming the low end of your guesstimate of $180M-$2XXM.

Now with still questionable TV revenue and some fans basically boycotting, what happens if the 2026 dollars
are a little less and fall to the upside of $130M? The lack of depth that you point out
would still be there, just 2 known names at the top.
CCard
Forum User
Posts: 1882
Joined: 21 Aug 2024 08:39 am

Re: Question for those not wanting to Rebuild

Post by CCard »

renostl wrote: 23 Dec 2025 14:25 pm
CCard wrote: 22 Dec 2025 21:03 pm
renostl wrote: 22 Dec 2025 16:13 pm
CCard wrote: 22 Dec 2025 12:33 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 21 Dec 2025 06:10 am
CCard wrote: 21 Dec 2025 05:52 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 21 Dec 2025 05:30 am
CCard wrote: 20 Dec 2025 17:42 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 20 Dec 2025 08:08 am
CCard wrote: 20 Dec 2025 07:44 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 20 Dec 2025 05:38 am
CCard wrote: 19 Dec 2025 20:12 pm

Your point is pure foolishness. The Cards had the 16th highest payroll in baseball in 2025. For this franchise that's a disgrace. You all get on here and justify it, kissing DeWitt's a$%. You make me sick. They could easily be spending 50 million more, easily. Imagine what that could turn this team into.
An 81 win team?
Add an rbi guy to the lineup and a top of the rotation pitcher. Shore up the bullpen with some quality and not trade away one of the better Lefty relievers in baseball. Still think it's an 81 win team? This was with Gray, now they have to replace that talent.
If they had kept Gray, maybe 84 or 85 wins instead of 81. But that's about it.
You're guessing again. It's not a good look for a stats guy.
Gray was worth 3.6 fWAR last year, and he'll be another year over 30 in 2026. So 3 wins, maybe 4, is a good estimate.

All of your machinations keep coming back to the same place, an 84, 85 - maybe if most everything breaks right 86, 87 - win team. Unless you magically have the Cardinals increasing payroll to $210, $215, $225 million, that's where this roster is basically stuck until they develop more young talent.
Cards won the WS with an 83 win team. You get in the playoffs and you take your chances. Lightning can and does strike. Or you can take years, build some mythical beast and get bounced in the first series you play against a hot team. Ask the Yankees and the WS Champion Red Sox. We should be able to agree that a payroll of 120 to 130 is a disgrace for the Cardinal organization.
That's exactly the thinking the Cardinals should, and apparently are, trying to get away from.

Having to go through more rounds of playoffs than in 2006 works against you. Having to likely go through multiple teams now like the Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, etc. who are always loaded because of how much more money they can spend works against you.

And, if they are not in a position where they can build a more solid 90+, or better yet 92+, win roster, I don't care whether they spend $50 million, $100 million, or $150 million. I'm not offended, or pacified, by how much money they spend or don't spend if they aren't competitive.
You don't have to spend $350 million to compete with the Dodgers but you do have to spend $180-$2XX. You aren't going to compete with any top tier teams fielding a $100 million or less team. You'll just be a farm team then. Ask Pittsburgh or Miami about that.
I don't disagree with the POV that they will have to spend.
How much can be discussed but for the sake of this question lets
say the $180M you mentioned.

Do you want $40 million of that going to 1 year of Gray?
Perhaps if he's the last piece, he not. WC can be debated but
acknowledge that there plenty of rationale to move him.

The Cards had bad money on the books the last 2+ seasons.
SG, WC, MM, SM, NA amounted to $88M add PG $113M on horses
that could no longer carry. That means every position filled
with prospects has to work out with plus production.

JMO, but if or when they spend it needs to be on different
players and the way to get there is to clear the books.
The roster needs to still be worked out
before I'll become more critical.
They could have kept Gray and spent 30 million on a top tier pitcher and still had money left over for other needs. That would put this team in contention for a playoff spot. They need top tier pitching. Now they have none. Who is there number 1 starter? It certainly isn't Pallante(who should be in the bullpen). McGreevy? He better show more than he has. Some of these other minor league untested pitchers? Not hardly.
I think that would be a terrible idea and I believe teams should always compete.
That move has $90M on WC, SG, and the $30M SP. Leaves $90 for the rest of the team
assuming the low end of your guesstimate of $180M-$2XXM.

Now with still questionable TV revenue and some fans basically boycotting, what happens if the 2026 dollars
are a little less and fall to the upside of $130M? The lack of depth that you point out
would still be there, just 2 known names at the top.
In 2025 the Cards payroll was $144 million. They could have bumped it 40 to 60 million easy. That would get them a top tier pitcher, probably a decent bat and some help in the pen. They would have competed at least. They would have put talent on the field. Instead we had to endure Pallante and Mikolas. We had to watch Noot jump on and off of the IL. Give me a break.
renostl
Forum User
Posts: 3588
Joined: 23 May 2024 12:40 pm

Re: Question for those not wanting to Rebuild

Post by renostl »

CCard wrote: 23 Dec 2025 16:03 pm
renostl wrote: 23 Dec 2025 14:25 pm
CCard wrote: 22 Dec 2025 21:03 pm
renostl wrote: 22 Dec 2025 16:13 pm
CCard wrote: 22 Dec 2025 12:33 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 21 Dec 2025 06:10 am
CCard wrote: 21 Dec 2025 05:52 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 21 Dec 2025 05:30 am
CCard wrote: 20 Dec 2025 17:42 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 20 Dec 2025 08:08 am
CCard wrote: 20 Dec 2025 07:44 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 20 Dec 2025 05:38 am

An 81 win team?
Add an rbi guy to the lineup and a top of the rotation pitcher. Shore up the bullpen with some quality and not trade away one of the better Lefty relievers in baseball. Still think it's an 81 win team? This was with Gray, now they have to replace that talent.
If they had kept Gray, maybe 84 or 85 wins instead of 81. But that's about it.
You're guessing again. It's not a good look for a stats guy.
Gray was worth 3.6 fWAR last year, and he'll be another year over 30 in 2026. So 3 wins, maybe 4, is a good estimate.

All of your machinations keep coming back to the same place, an 84, 85 - maybe if most everything breaks right 86, 87 - win team. Unless you magically have the Cardinals increasing payroll to $210, $215, $225 million, that's where this roster is basically stuck until they develop more young talent.
Cards won the WS with an 83 win team. You get in the playoffs and you take your chances. Lightning can and does strike. Or you can take years, build some mythical beast and get bounced in the first series you play against a hot team. Ask the Yankees and the WS Champion Red Sox. We should be able to agree that a payroll of 120 to 130 is a disgrace for the Cardinal organization.
That's exactly the thinking the Cardinals should, and apparently are, trying to get away from.

Having to go through more rounds of playoffs than in 2006 works against you. Having to likely go through multiple teams now like the Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, etc. who are always loaded because of how much more money they can spend works against you.

And, if they are not in a position where they can build a more solid 90+, or better yet 92+, win roster, I don't care whether they spend $50 million, $100 million, or $150 million. I'm not offended, or pacified, by how much money they spend or don't spend if they aren't competitive.
You don't have to spend $350 million to compete with the Dodgers but you do have to spend $180-$2XX. You aren't going to compete with any top tier teams fielding a $100 million or less team. You'll just be a farm team then. Ask Pittsburgh or Miami about that.
I don't disagree with the POV that they will have to spend.
How much can be discussed but for the sake of this question lets
say the $180M you mentioned.

Do you want $40 million of that going to 1 year of Gray?
Perhaps if he's the last piece, he not. WC can be debated but
acknowledge that there plenty of rationale to move him.

The Cards had bad money on the books the last 2+ seasons.
SG, WC, MM, SM, NA amounted to $88M add PG $113M on horses
that could no longer carry. That means every position filled
with prospects has to work out with plus production.

JMO, but if or when they spend it needs to be on different
players and the way to get there is to clear the books.
The roster needs to still be worked out
before I'll become more critical.
They could have kept Gray and spent 30 million on a top tier pitcher and still had money left over for other needs. That would put this team in contention for a playoff spot. They need top tier pitching. Now they have none. Who is there number 1 starter? It certainly isn't Pallante(who should be in the bullpen). McGreevy? He better show more than he has. Some of these other minor league untested pitchers? Not hardly.
I think that would be a terrible idea and I believe teams should always compete.
That move has $90M on WC, SG, and the $30M SP. Leaves $90 for the rest of the team
assuming the low end of your guesstimate of $180M-$2XXM.

Now with still questionable TV revenue and some fans basically boycotting, what happens if the 2026 dollars
are a little less and fall to the upside of $130M? The lack of depth that you point out
would still be there, just 2 known names at the top.
In 2025 the Cards payroll was $144 million. They could have bumped it 40 to 60 million easy. That would get them a top tier pitcher, probably a decent bat and some help in the pen. They would have competed at least. They would have put talent on the field. Instead we had to endure Pallante and Mikolas. We had to watch Noot jump on and off of the IL. Give me a break.
The facts of the matter are that we agree on a couple things. The Cardinals should attempt to win t
his division. That on occasion they have seemingly stopped a player short. IMO that was underscored when the prior TV deal went sideways. Perhaps I am wrong.

The Cardinals have never spent to the level you suggest. Whether they could have is less relevant. For the record I believe they could have. We should also give some credit to the amounts that they have spent to compared to other markets. It shows that they do out punch every Central division team with some Cub teams exceptions.

So they operate on a margin. It's their margin. IF they have never exceeded $200M before why think that they should have when revenues are less in TV and 1M less in attendance, with a flawed team?

Again doesn't matter what we think their top is.
They are responsible for most of this situation.
Bill was far to loyal to MO when he made some decisions. Bill was a part of those too.

We disagree on the absolutes. We disagree on chasing additions when a team is fairly flawed. A reset was in order IMO. That doesn't mean forever. I want improvement as much and as soon as yourself.

1000 words later, I've still done a poor job articulating a position. Which is okay, we should come here for different POV.
CCard
Forum User
Posts: 1882
Joined: 21 Aug 2024 08:39 am

Re: Question for those not wanting to Rebuild

Post by CCard »

renostl wrote: 23 Dec 2025 21:49 pm
CCard wrote: 23 Dec 2025 16:03 pm
renostl wrote: 23 Dec 2025 14:25 pm
CCard wrote: 22 Dec 2025 21:03 pm
renostl wrote: 22 Dec 2025 16:13 pm
CCard wrote: 22 Dec 2025 12:33 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 21 Dec 2025 06:10 am
CCard wrote: 21 Dec 2025 05:52 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 21 Dec 2025 05:30 am
CCard wrote: 20 Dec 2025 17:42 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 20 Dec 2025 08:08 am
CCard wrote: 20 Dec 2025 07:44 am

Add an rbi guy to the lineup and a top of the rotation pitcher. Shore up the bullpen with some quality and not trade away one of the better Lefty relievers in baseball. Still think it's an 81 win team? This was with Gray, now they have to replace that talent.
If they had kept Gray, maybe 84 or 85 wins instead of 81. But that's about it.
You're guessing again. It's not a good look for a stats guy.
Gray was worth 3.6 fWAR last year, and he'll be another year over 30 in 2026. So 3 wins, maybe 4, is a good estimate.

All of your machinations keep coming back to the same place, an 84, 85 - maybe if most everything breaks right 86, 87 - win team. Unless you magically have the Cardinals increasing payroll to $210, $215, $225 million, that's where this roster is basically stuck until they develop more young talent.
Cards won the WS with an 83 win team. You get in the playoffs and you take your chances. Lightning can and does strike. Or you can take years, build some mythical beast and get bounced in the first series you play against a hot team. Ask the Yankees and the WS Champion Red Sox. We should be able to agree that a payroll of 120 to 130 is a disgrace for the Cardinal organization.
That's exactly the thinking the Cardinals should, and apparently are, trying to get away from.

Having to go through more rounds of playoffs than in 2006 works against you. Having to likely go through multiple teams now like the Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, etc. who are always loaded because of how much more money they can spend works against you.

And, if they are not in a position where they can build a more solid 90+, or better yet 92+, win roster, I don't care whether they spend $50 million, $100 million, or $150 million. I'm not offended, or pacified, by how much money they spend or don't spend if they aren't competitive.
You don't have to spend $350 million to compete with the Dodgers but you do have to spend $180-$2XX. You aren't going to compete with any top tier teams fielding a $100 million or less team. You'll just be a farm team then. Ask Pittsburgh or Miami about that.
I don't disagree with the POV that they will have to spend.
How much can be discussed but for the sake of this question lets
say the $180M you mentioned.

Do you want $40 million of that going to 1 year of Gray?
Perhaps if he's the last piece, he not. WC can be debated but
acknowledge that there plenty of rationale to move him.

The Cards had bad money on the books the last 2+ seasons.
SG, WC, MM, SM, NA amounted to $88M add PG $113M on horses
that could no longer carry. That means every position filled
with prospects has to work out with plus production.

JMO, but if or when they spend it needs to be on different
players and the way to get there is to clear the books.
The roster needs to still be worked out
before I'll become more critical.
They could have kept Gray and spent 30 million on a top tier pitcher and still had money left over for other needs. That would put this team in contention for a playoff spot. They need top tier pitching. Now they have none. Who is there number 1 starter? It certainly isn't Pallante(who should be in the bullpen). McGreevy? He better show more than he has. Some of these other minor league untested pitchers? Not hardly.
I think that would be a terrible idea and I believe teams should always compete.
That move has $90M on WC, SG, and the $30M SP. Leaves $90 for the rest of the team
assuming the low end of your guesstimate of $180M-$2XXM.

Now with still questionable TV revenue and some fans basically boycotting, what happens if the 2026 dollars
are a little less and fall to the upside of $130M? The lack of depth that you point out
would still be there, just 2 known names at the top.
In 2025 the Cards payroll was $144 million. They could have bumped it 40 to 60 million easy. That would get them a top tier pitcher, probably a decent bat and some help in the pen. They would have competed at least. They would have put talent on the field. Instead we had to endure Pallante and Mikolas. We had to watch Noot jump on and off of the IL. Give me a break.
The facts of the matter are that we agree on a couple things. The Cardinals should attempt to win t
his division. That on occasion they have seemingly stopped a player short. IMO that was underscored when the prior TV deal went sideways. Perhaps I am wrong.

The Cardinals have never spent to the level you suggest. Whether they could have is less relevant. For the record I believe they could have. We should also give some credit to the amounts that they have spent to compared to other markets. It shows that they do out punch every Central division team with some Cub teams exceptions.

So they operate on a margin. It's their margin. IF they have never exceeded $200M before why think that they should have when revenues are less in TV and 1M less in attendance, with a flawed team?

Again doesn't matter what we think their top is.
They are responsible for most of this situation.
Bill was far to loyal to MO when he made some decisions. Bill was a part of those too.

We disagree on the absolutes. We disagree on chasing additions when a team is fairly flawed. A reset was in order IMO. That doesn't mean forever. I want improvement as much and as soon as yourself.

1000 words later, I've still done a poor job articulating a position. Which is okay, we should come here for different POV.
Yeah, but prices go up and costs go up to go to games. How much is a beer now? Or a hot dog? They can't expect to get good players for the same prices they did 10 or 20 years ago. Everything goes up. That being said they had the profit to go to $200 million. At one time they were in the $180 million range and then austerity kicked in full force. They should at least match their top payroll.
renostl
Forum User
Posts: 3588
Joined: 23 May 2024 12:40 pm

Re: Question for those not wanting to Rebuild

Post by renostl »

CCard wrote: 24 Dec 2025 00:34 am
renostl wrote: 23 Dec 2025 21:49 pm
CCard wrote: 23 Dec 2025 16:03 pm
renostl wrote: 23 Dec 2025 14:25 pm
CCard wrote: 22 Dec 2025 21:03 pm
renostl wrote: 22 Dec 2025 16:13 pm
CCard wrote: 22 Dec 2025 12:33 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 21 Dec 2025 06:10 am
CCard wrote: 21 Dec 2025 05:52 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 21 Dec 2025 05:30 am
CCard wrote: 20 Dec 2025 17:42 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 20 Dec 2025 08:08 am

If they had kept Gray, maybe 84 or 85 wins instead of 81. But that's about it.
You're guessing again. It's not a good look for a stats guy.
Gray was worth 3.6 fWAR last year, and he'll be another year over 30 in 2026. So 3 wins, maybe 4, is a good estimate.

All of your machinations keep coming back to the same place, an 84, 85 - maybe if most everything breaks right 86, 87 - win team. Unless you magically have the Cardinals increasing payroll to $210, $215, $225 million, that's where this roster is basically stuck until they develop more young talent.
Cards won the WS with an 83 win team. You get in the playoffs and you take your chances. Lightning can and does strike. Or you can take years, build some mythical beast and get bounced in the first series you play against a hot team. Ask the Yankees and the WS Champion Red Sox. We should be able to agree that a payroll of 120 to 130 is a disgrace for the Cardinal organization.
That's exactly the thinking the Cardinals should, and apparently are, trying to get away from.

Having to go through more rounds of playoffs than in 2006 works against you. Having to likely go through multiple teams now like the Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, etc. who are always loaded because of how much more money they can spend works against you.

And, if they are not in a position where they can build a more solid 90+, or better yet 92+, win roster, I don't care whether they spend $50 million, $100 million, or $150 million. I'm not offended, or pacified, by how much money they spend or don't spend if they aren't competitive.
You don't have to spend $350 million to compete with the Dodgers but you do have to spend $180-$2XX. You aren't going to compete with any top tier teams fielding a $100 million or less team. You'll just be a farm team then. Ask Pittsburgh or Miami about that.
I don't disagree with the POV that they will have to spend.
How much can be discussed but for the sake of this question lets
say the $180M you mentioned.

Do you want $40 million of that going to 1 year of Gray?
Perhaps if he's the last piece, he not. WC can be debated but
acknowledge that there plenty of rationale to move him.

The Cards had bad money on the books the last 2+ seasons.
SG, WC, MM, SM, NA amounted to $88M add PG $113M on horses
that could no longer carry. That means every position filled
with prospects has to work out with plus production.

JMO, but if or when they spend it needs to be on different
players and the way to get there is to clear the books.
The roster needs to still be worked out
before I'll become more critical.
They could have kept Gray and spent 30 million on a top tier pitcher and still had money left over for other needs. That would put this team in contention for a playoff spot. They need top tier pitching. Now they have none. Who is there number 1 starter? It certainly isn't Pallante(who should be in the bullpen). McGreevy? He better show more than he has. Some of these other minor league untested pitchers? Not hardly.
I think that would be a terrible idea and I believe teams should always compete.
That move has $90M on WC, SG, and the $30M SP. Leaves $90 for the rest of the team
assuming the low end of your guesstimate of $180M-$2XXM.

Now with still questionable TV revenue and some fans basically boycotting, what happens if the 2026 dollars
are a little less and fall to the upside of $130M? The lack of depth that you point out
would still be there, just 2 known names at the top.
In 2025 the Cards payroll was $144 million. They could have bumped it 40 to 60 million easy. That would get them a top tier pitcher, probably a decent bat and some help in the pen. They would have competed at least. They would have put talent on the field. Instead we had to endure Pallante and Mikolas. We had to watch Noot jump on and off of the IL. Give me a break.
The facts of the matter are that we agree on a couple things. The Cardinals should attempt to win t
his division. That on occasion they have seemingly stopped a player short. IMO that was underscored when the prior TV deal went sideways. Perhaps I am wrong.

The Cardinals have never spent to the level you suggest. Whether they could have is less relevant. For the record I believe they could have. We should also give some credit to the amounts that they have spent to compared to other markets. It shows that they do out punch every Central division team with some Cub teams exceptions.

So they operate on a margin. It's their margin. IF they have never exceeded $200M before why think that they should have when revenues are less in TV and 1M less in attendance, with a flawed team?

Again doesn't matter what we think their top is.
They are responsible for most of this situation.
Bill was far to loyal to MO when he made some decisions. Bill was a part of those too.

We disagree on the absolutes. We disagree on chasing additions when a team is fairly flawed. A reset was in order IMO. That doesn't mean forever. I want improvement as much and as soon as yourself.

1000 words later, I've still done a poor job articulating a position. Which is okay, we should come here for different POV.
Yeah, but prices go up and costs go up to go to games. How much is a beer now? Or a hot dog? They can't expect to get good players for the same prices they did 10 or 20 years ago. Everything goes up. That being said they had the profit to go to $200 million. At one time they were in the $180 million range and then austerity kicked in full force. They should at least match their top payroll.
Almost all on this board want a team that is consistently predicted to win the NLC.

We have to expect that the owners do too.
CCard
Forum User
Posts: 1882
Joined: 21 Aug 2024 08:39 am

Re: Question for those not wanting to Rebuild

Post by CCard »

renostl wrote: 24 Dec 2025 00:47 am
CCard wrote: 24 Dec 2025 00:34 am
renostl wrote: 23 Dec 2025 21:49 pm
CCard wrote: 23 Dec 2025 16:03 pm
renostl wrote: 23 Dec 2025 14:25 pm
CCard wrote: 22 Dec 2025 21:03 pm
renostl wrote: 22 Dec 2025 16:13 pm
CCard wrote: 22 Dec 2025 12:33 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 21 Dec 2025 06:10 am
CCard wrote: 21 Dec 2025 05:52 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 21 Dec 2025 05:30 am
CCard wrote: 20 Dec 2025 17:42 pm

You're guessing again. It's not a good look for a stats guy.
Gray was worth 3.6 fWAR last year, and he'll be another year over 30 in 2026. So 3 wins, maybe 4, is a good estimate.

All of your machinations keep coming back to the same place, an 84, 85 - maybe if most everything breaks right 86, 87 - win team. Unless you magically have the Cardinals increasing payroll to $210, $215, $225 million, that's where this roster is basically stuck until they develop more young talent.
Cards won the WS with an 83 win team. You get in the playoffs and you take your chances. Lightning can and does strike. Or you can take years, build some mythical beast and get bounced in the first series you play against a hot team. Ask the Yankees and the WS Champion Red Sox. We should be able to agree that a payroll of 120 to 130 is a disgrace for the Cardinal organization.
That's exactly the thinking the Cardinals should, and apparently are, trying to get away from.

Having to go through more rounds of playoffs than in 2006 works against you. Having to likely go through multiple teams now like the Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, etc. who are always loaded because of how much more money they can spend works against you.

And, if they are not in a position where they can build a more solid 90+, or better yet 92+, win roster, I don't care whether they spend $50 million, $100 million, or $150 million. I'm not offended, or pacified, by how much money they spend or don't spend if they aren't competitive.
You don't have to spend $350 million to compete with the Dodgers but you do have to spend $180-$2XX. You aren't going to compete with any top tier teams fielding a $100 million or less team. You'll just be a farm team then. Ask Pittsburgh or Miami about that.
I don't disagree with the POV that they will have to spend.
How much can be discussed but for the sake of this question lets
say the $180M you mentioned.

Do you want $40 million of that going to 1 year of Gray?
Perhaps if he's the last piece, he not. WC can be debated but
acknowledge that there plenty of rationale to move him.

The Cards had bad money on the books the last 2+ seasons.
SG, WC, MM, SM, NA amounted to $88M add PG $113M on horses
that could no longer carry. That means every position filled
with prospects has to work out with plus production.

JMO, but if or when they spend it needs to be on different
players and the way to get there is to clear the books.
The roster needs to still be worked out
before I'll become more critical.
They could have kept Gray and spent 30 million on a top tier pitcher and still had money left over for other needs. That would put this team in contention for a playoff spot. They need top tier pitching. Now they have none. Who is there number 1 starter? It certainly isn't Pallante(who should be in the bullpen). McGreevy? He better show more than he has. Some of these other minor league untested pitchers? Not hardly.
I think that would be a terrible idea and I believe teams should always compete.
That move has $90M on WC, SG, and the $30M SP. Leaves $90 for the rest of the team
assuming the low end of your guesstimate of $180M-$2XXM.

Now with still questionable TV revenue and some fans basically boycotting, what happens if the 2026 dollars
are a little less and fall to the upside of $130M? The lack of depth that you point out
would still be there, just 2 known names at the top.
In 2025 the Cards payroll was $144 million. They could have bumped it 40 to 60 million easy. That would get them a top tier pitcher, probably a decent bat and some help in the pen. They would have competed at least. They would have put talent on the field. Instead we had to endure Pallante and Mikolas. We had to watch Noot jump on and off of the IL. Give me a break.
The facts of the matter are that we agree on a couple things. The Cardinals should attempt to win t
his division. That on occasion they have seemingly stopped a player short. IMO that was underscored when the prior TV deal went sideways. Perhaps I am wrong.

The Cardinals have never spent to the level you suggest. Whether they could have is less relevant. For the record I believe they could have. We should also give some credit to the amounts that they have spent to compared to other markets. It shows that they do out punch every Central division team with some Cub teams exceptions.

So they operate on a margin. It's their margin. IF they have never exceeded $200M before why think that they should have when revenues are less in TV and 1M less in attendance, with a flawed team?

Again doesn't matter what we think their top is.
They are responsible for most of this situation.
Bill was far to loyal to MO when he made some decisions. Bill was a part of those too.

We disagree on the absolutes. We disagree on chasing additions when a team is fairly flawed. A reset was in order IMO. That doesn't mean forever. I want improvement as much and as soon as yourself.

1000 words later, I've still done a poor job articulating a position. Which is okay, we should come here for different POV.
Yeah, but prices go up and costs go up to go to games. How much is a beer now? Or a hot dog? They can't expect to get good players for the same prices they did 10 or 20 years ago. Everything goes up. That being said they had the profit to go to $200 million. At one time they were in the $180 million range and then austerity kicked in full force. They should at least match their top payroll.
Almost all on this board want a team that is consistently predicted to win the NLC.

We have to expect that the owners do too.
I would say all the fans on this board want the Cards to win. The owners? Well...Let's just say they haven't stepped up to the plate.
renostl
Forum User
Posts: 3588
Joined: 23 May 2024 12:40 pm

Re: Question for those not wanting to Rebuild

Post by renostl »

CCard wrote: 24 Dec 2025 00:50 am
renostl wrote: 24 Dec 2025 00:47 am
CCard wrote: 24 Dec 2025 00:34 am
renostl wrote: 23 Dec 2025 21:49 pm
CCard wrote: 23 Dec 2025 16:03 pm
renostl wrote: 23 Dec 2025 14:25 pm
CCard wrote: 22 Dec 2025 21:03 pm
renostl wrote: 22 Dec 2025 16:13 pm
CCard wrote: 22 Dec 2025 12:33 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 21 Dec 2025 06:10 am
CCard wrote: 21 Dec 2025 05:52 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 21 Dec 2025 05:30 am

Gray was worth 3.6 fWAR last year, and he'll be another year over 30 in 2026. So 3 wins, maybe 4, is a good estimate.

All of your machinations keep coming back to the same place, an 84, 85 - maybe if most everything breaks right 86, 87 - win team. Unless you magically have the Cardinals increasing payroll to $210, $215, $225 million, that's where this roster is basically stuck until they develop more young talent.
Cards won the WS with an 83 win team. You get in the playoffs and you take your chances. Lightning can and does strike. Or you can take years, build some mythical beast and get bounced in the first series you play against a hot team. Ask the Yankees and the WS Champion Red Sox. We should be able to agree that a payroll of 120 to 130 is a disgrace for the Cardinal organization.
That's exactly the thinking the Cardinals should, and apparently are, trying to get away from.

Having to go through more rounds of playoffs than in 2006 works against you. Having to likely go through multiple teams now like the Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, etc. who are always loaded because of how much more money they can spend works against you.

And, if they are not in a position where they can build a more solid 90+, or better yet 92+, win roster, I don't care whether they spend $50 million, $100 million, or $150 million. I'm not offended, or pacified, by how much money they spend or don't spend if they aren't competitive.
You don't have to spend $350 million to compete with the Dodgers but you do have to spend $180-$2XX. You aren't going to compete with any top tier teams fielding a $100 million or less team. You'll just be a farm team then. Ask Pittsburgh or Miami about that.
I don't disagree with the POV that they will have to spend.
How much can be discussed but for the sake of this question lets
say the $180M you mentioned.

Do you want $40 million of that going to 1 year of Gray?
Perhaps if he's the last piece, he not. WC can be debated but
acknowledge that there plenty of rationale to move him.

The Cards had bad money on the books the last 2+ seasons.
SG, WC, MM, SM, NA amounted to $88M add PG $113M on horses
that could no longer carry. That means every position filled
with prospects has to work out with plus production.

JMO, but if or when they spend it needs to be on different
players and the way to get there is to clear the books.
The roster needs to still be worked out
before I'll become more critical.
They could have kept Gray and spent 30 million on a top tier pitcher and still had money left over for other needs. That would put this team in contention for a playoff spot. They need top tier pitching. Now they have none. Who is there number 1 starter? It certainly isn't Pallante(who should be in the bullpen). McGreevy? He better show more than he has. Some of these other minor league untested pitchers? Not hardly.
I think that would be a terrible idea and I believe teams should always compete.
That move has $90M on WC, SG, and the $30M SP. Leaves $90 for the rest of the team
assuming the low end of your guesstimate of $180M-$2XXM.

Now with still questionable TV revenue and some fans basically boycotting, what happens if the 2026 dollars
are a little less and fall to the upside of $130M? The lack of depth that you point out
would still be there, just 2 known names at the top.
In 2025 the Cards payroll was $144 million. They could have bumped it 40 to 60 million easy. That would get them a top tier pitcher, probably a decent bat and some help in the pen. They would have competed at least. They would have put talent on the field. Instead we had to endure Pallante and Mikolas. We had to watch Noot jump on and off of the IL. Give me a break.
The facts of the matter are that we agree on a couple things. The Cardinals should attempt to win t
his division. That on occasion they have seemingly stopped a player short. IMO that was underscored when the prior TV deal went sideways. Perhaps I am wrong.

The Cardinals have never spent to the level you suggest. Whether they could have is less relevant. For the record I believe they could have. We should also give some credit to the amounts that they have spent to compared to other markets. It shows that they do out punch every Central division team with some Cub teams exceptions.

So they operate on a margin. It's their margin. IF they have never exceeded $200M before why think that they should have when revenues are less in TV and 1M less in attendance, with a flawed team?

Again doesn't matter what we think their top is.
They are responsible for most of this situation.
Bill was far to loyal to MO when he made some decisions. Bill was a part of those too.

We disagree on the absolutes. We disagree on chasing additions when a team is fairly flawed. A reset was in order IMO. That doesn't mean forever. I want improvement as much and as soon as yourself.

1000 words later, I've still done a poor job articulating a position. Which is okay, we should come here for different POV.
Yeah, but prices go up and costs go up to go to games. How much is a beer now? Or a hot dog? They can't expect to get good players for the same prices they did 10 or 20 years ago. Everything goes up. That being said they had the profit to go to $200 million. At one time they were in the $180 million range and then austerity kicked in full force. They should at least match their top payroll.
Almost all on this board want a team that is consistently predicted to win the NLC.

We have to expect that the owners do too.
I would say all the fans on this board want the Cards to win. The owners? Well...Let's just say they haven't stepped up to the plate.
Then would you say that they probably prefer a full stadium, fuller BPV, and enough demand for their product that $10/month is not a barrier for TV viewers.
CCard
Forum User
Posts: 1882
Joined: 21 Aug 2024 08:39 am

Re: Question for those not wanting to Rebuild

Post by CCard »

renostl wrote: 24 Dec 2025 01:06 am
CCard wrote: 24 Dec 2025 00:50 am
renostl wrote: 24 Dec 2025 00:47 am
CCard wrote: 24 Dec 2025 00:34 am
renostl wrote: 23 Dec 2025 21:49 pm
CCard wrote: 23 Dec 2025 16:03 pm
renostl wrote: 23 Dec 2025 14:25 pm
CCard wrote: 22 Dec 2025 21:03 pm
renostl wrote: 22 Dec 2025 16:13 pm
CCard wrote: 22 Dec 2025 12:33 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 21 Dec 2025 06:10 am
CCard wrote: 21 Dec 2025 05:52 am

Cards won the WS with an 83 win team. You get in the playoffs and you take your chances. Lightning can and does strike. Or you can take years, build some mythical beast and get bounced in the first series you play against a hot team. Ask the Yankees and the WS Champion Red Sox. We should be able to agree that a payroll of 120 to 130 is a disgrace for the Cardinal organization.
That's exactly the thinking the Cardinals should, and apparently are, trying to get away from.

Having to go through more rounds of playoffs than in 2006 works against you. Having to likely go through multiple teams now like the Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, etc. who are always loaded because of how much more money they can spend works against you.

And, if they are not in a position where they can build a more solid 90+, or better yet 92+, win roster, I don't care whether they spend $50 million, $100 million, or $150 million. I'm not offended, or pacified, by how much money they spend or don't spend if they aren't competitive.
You don't have to spend $350 million to compete with the Dodgers but you do have to spend $180-$2XX. You aren't going to compete with any top tier teams fielding a $100 million or less team. You'll just be a farm team then. Ask Pittsburgh or Miami about that.
I don't disagree with the POV that they will have to spend.
How much can be discussed but for the sake of this question lets
say the $180M you mentioned.

Do you want $40 million of that going to 1 year of Gray?
Perhaps if he's the last piece, he not. WC can be debated but
acknowledge that there plenty of rationale to move him.

The Cards had bad money on the books the last 2+ seasons.
SG, WC, MM, SM, NA amounted to $88M add PG $113M on horses
that could no longer carry. That means every position filled
with prospects has to work out with plus production.

JMO, but if or when they spend it needs to be on different
players and the way to get there is to clear the books.
The roster needs to still be worked out
before I'll become more critical.
They could have kept Gray and spent 30 million on a top tier pitcher and still had money left over for other needs. That would put this team in contention for a playoff spot. They need top tier pitching. Now they have none. Who is there number 1 starter? It certainly isn't Pallante(who should be in the bullpen). McGreevy? He better show more than he has. Some of these other minor league untested pitchers? Not hardly.
I think that would be a terrible idea and I believe teams should always compete.
That move has $90M on WC, SG, and the $30M SP. Leaves $90 for the rest of the team
assuming the low end of your guesstimate of $180M-$2XXM.

Now with still questionable TV revenue and some fans basically boycotting, what happens if the 2026 dollars
are a little less and fall to the upside of $130M? The lack of depth that you point out
would still be there, just 2 known names at the top.
In 2025 the Cards payroll was $144 million. They could have bumped it 40 to 60 million easy. That would get them a top tier pitcher, probably a decent bat and some help in the pen. They would have competed at least. They would have put talent on the field. Instead we had to endure Pallante and Mikolas. We had to watch Noot jump on and off of the IL. Give me a break.
The facts of the matter are that we agree on a couple things. The Cardinals should attempt to win t
his division. That on occasion they have seemingly stopped a player short. IMO that was underscored when the prior TV deal went sideways. Perhaps I am wrong.

The Cardinals have never spent to the level you suggest. Whether they could have is less relevant. For the record I believe they could have. We should also give some credit to the amounts that they have spent to compared to other markets. It shows that they do out punch every Central division team with some Cub teams exceptions.

So they operate on a margin. It's their margin. IF they have never exceeded $200M before why think that they should have when revenues are less in TV and 1M less in attendance, with a flawed team?

Again doesn't matter what we think their top is.
They are responsible for most of this situation.
Bill was far to loyal to MO when he made some decisions. Bill was a part of those too.

We disagree on the absolutes. We disagree on chasing additions when a team is fairly flawed. A reset was in order IMO. That doesn't mean forever. I want improvement as much and as soon as yourself.

1000 words later, I've still done a poor job articulating a position. Which is okay, we should come here for different POV.
Yeah, but prices go up and costs go up to go to games. How much is a beer now? Or a hot dog? They can't expect to get good players for the same prices they did 10 or 20 years ago. Everything goes up. That being said they had the profit to go to $200 million. At one time they were in the $180 million range and then austerity kicked in full force. They should at least match their top payroll.
Almost all on this board want a team that is consistently predicted to win the NLC.

We have to expect that the owners do too.
I would say all the fans on this board want the Cards to win. The owners? Well...Let's just say they haven't stepped up to the plate.
Then would you say that they probably prefer a full stadium, fuller BPV, and enough demand for their product that $10/month is not a barrier for TV viewers.
I think it's a fact that MLB teams are cash cows. If not then billionaires wouldn't be lining up to own them. Which is why they must have some reasoning for gutting the team. I mean DeWitt is old enough that he might not see another playoff game, but has he passed control to someone else?
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