Why?

[OldRed]

Percent of draftees that make it to the majors -

1st Round - 66%-71.5%
2nd Round - 49%-52%
3rd-5th Rounds - 32%-40%
6th - 10th Rounds - 20%
10 Round+ - 10%

Show some proof. I don't really believe that is accurate. Then how long do they stay.

[cardstatman]

Only 14 players from the 1st round of the 2016 draft (41 players) have managed to accumulate 2.0 bWAR which would be equivalent to one average MLB season of production. Our own Dylan Carlson and Dakota Hudson rank in the top third of MLB production by bWAR from the 1st round of that draft year.

bWAR pick# Player
23.0 32 Will Smith
8.5 41 Nick Lodolo
7.5 8 Cal Quantrill
7.4 30 Cole Ragans
7.2 20 Gavin Lux
5.8 7 Braxton Garret
5.8 25 Eric Lauer
4.9 13 Josh Lowe
3.7 29 Dan Dunning
3.7 33 Dylan Carlson
3.6 6 A.J. Puk --- Lottery pick in today's rules
3.3 34 Dakota Hudson
3.1 3 Ian Anderson --- Lottery pick in today's rules
2.0 16 Matt Thaiss

[cardstatman]

The 2015 1st round was much better with 19 of 42 picks managing to accumulate 2.0 bWAR (one average season of bWAR)

bWAR Pick# Player
43.1 2 Alex Bregman --- lottery pick in today's rules
28.4 1 Dansby Swanson --- lottery pick in today's rules
27.3 5 Kyle Tucker --- lottery pick in today's rules
22.5 41 Austin Riley
22.4 9 Ian Happ
16.5 7 Andrew Benintendi
14.9 32 Ke'Bryan Hayes
14.6 15 Trent Grisham
12.3 24 Walker Buehler
9.9 26 Taylor Ward
8.4 12 Josh Naylor
8.1 11 Tyler Stephenson
8.1 36 Ryan Mountcastle
6.8 28 Michael Soroka
5.9 3 Brendan Rodgers --- lottery pick in today's rules
4.9 42 Triston McKenzie
4.2 19 Kevin Newman
2.4 16 James Kaprielian
2.2 4 Dillon Tate

The Cardinals picked Nick Plummer and Jake Woodford. They made it to MLB but let's not pretend they were successful MLB players.

[renostl]

The 2015 1st round was much better with 19 of 42 picks managing to accumulate 2.0 bWAR (one average season of bWAR)

bWAR Pick# Player
43.1 2 Alex Bregman
28.4 1 Dansby Swanson
27.3 5 Kyle Tucker
22.5 41 Austin Riley
22.4 9 Ian Happ
16.5 7 Andrew Benintendi
14.9 32 Ke'Bryan Hayes
14.6 15 Trent Grisham
12.3 24 Walker Buehler
9.9 26 Taylor Ward
8.4 12 Josh Naylor
8.1 11 Tyler Stephenson
8.1 36 Ryan Mountcastle
6.8 28 Michael Soroka
5.9 3 Brendan Rodgers
4.9 42 Triston McKenzie
4.2 19 Kevin Newman
2.4 16 James Kaprielian
2.2 4 Dillon Tate

2015

[Wattage]

Percent of draftees that make it to the majors -

1st Round - 66%-71.5%
2nd Round - 49%-52%
3rd-5th Rounds - 32%-40%
6th - 10th Rounds - 20%
10 Round+ - 10%

Seems high compared to what I remember.

What's the criteria for making it.
A cup of coffee, a year, a 3 year career?
Maybe I remember those 3 year numbers.

i believe its just making it at all be it just a cup.

and part ofnthe reason its so high for top rounds vs low for other rpunds is org investment in the guys they drafted.

for example, many undrafted guys will hit .300 in AAA or close to it for whole year and not receive a callup over a 1st round pick who is hitting .270 but on a nice streak.

an undrafted or low round player has to extra standout to get a chance while many guys who are already looking like busts the org will be hesistant to give up on and will give callups to like tyler greene and pete kozma for st. louis many years ago.

if koperniak was a 1st roznd puck, he wpzld have definitely have been called up during 2023 even if in hindsight we can now say he probably wouldnt have succeeded

[renostl]

Percent of draftees that make it to the majors -

1st Round - 66%-71.5%
2nd Round - 49%-52%
3rd-5th Rounds - 32%-40%
6th - 10th Rounds - 20%
10 Round+ - 10%

Seems high compared to what I remember.

What's the criteria for making it.
A cup of coffee, a year, a 3 year career?
Maybe I remember those 3 year numbers.

i believe its just making it at all be it just a cup.

and part ofnthe reason its so high for top rounds vs low for other rpunds is org investment in the guys they drafted.

for example, many undrafted guys will hit .300 in AAA or close to it for whole year and not receive a callup over a 1st round pick who is hitting .270 but on a nice streak.

an undrafted or low round player has to extra standout to get a chance while many guys who are already looking like busts the org will be hesistant to give up on and will give callups to like tyler greene and pete kozma for st. louis many years ago.

if koperniak was a 1st roznd puck, he wpzld have definitely have been called up during 2023 even if in hindsight we can now say he probably wouldnt have succeeded

Yeah it is wild how few people know the dynamics of
opportunity works. I makes me a little less critical on the age
of a player getting a chance. I had more than 1 friend never
get much opportunity for different reasons.
Just get a window of production, greater than 5 seasons with
a team becomes rare.

[kscardsfan]

May as well be asking "why does the toast always fall butter side down?"

The butter makes that side of the toast heavier.

[kscardsfan]

The heart, drive, and baseball IQ can't be measured by numbers. That is what this game has become. Numbers.

[zuck698]

The heart, drive, and baseball IQ can't be measured by numbers. That is what this game has become. Numbers.

Well said! The game is worse for it IMO.

[ICCFIM2]

Over the years, I have posed this question to former MLB players many times, how much better is the average ML pitcher than the average AAA pitcher. The answer normally falls around 2X. If you are a pitcher, that means you will need to become twice as good to stick in the majors. If you are a hitter, that means the average competition is twice as good as anyone you have ever previously faced. Some players have the talent and determination to make that jump, others don't. For most people, that gap is simply unfathomable even though it seems like a narrow gap. Its not.

I drew the inspiration to ask this question from my experience as a chesspIayer. I am a pretty good chessplayer. In fact, I am rated in the top 99.98% players in the world. The truth of the matter is the players rated in the top 99.99% in the world are at least twice as good as I am, if not more. I could never make the jump to that level despite beating several of the worlds top grandmasters along the way. I just couldn't do it very often...In the world I play in, I understand why that is, but to someone on the outside looking in, it is simply impossible to understand because they are not at a level to see the differences. The same is true for baseball players. Of course, we can see players that fail because they don't have a good batting eye etc. But, the coaches who are responsible for helping them at some point will understand they are not good enough and will be able to pinpoint the reasons why, even though we can't see it. Analytics have taken some of that mystery away, but not all of it.

The simple answer is the players that don't make it are not good enough. It might be harsh, but, so it is.

[MrPostman01]

I blame the Scouty department for drafting too many losers and chowduheads,

[CorneliusWolfe]

Can anyone figure out why guys coming through the system like Winn, Burleson, and Herrera have evidently made a successful jump from AAA to MLB (knock on wood) and guys like Carlson, Walker, and Gorman have petered out?

Maybe they just hyped the wrong guys.

[JDW]

Luck of the draw.
Too many intangibles to hit on with great consistency.

[OldRed]

In all fairness to Carlson he had a great rookie season then had problems with injuries which he tried to play through. He never was the same after his injuries.

Carlson opened the 2022 season as the club's starting right fielder. In late May, he was placed on the injured list with a hamstring injury.[34] He was activated in early June.[35] Carlson hit the final of a record-tying four consecutive home runs between teammates on July 2, 2022, the 11th such occurrence in major league history. At Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman, Juan Yepez and Carlson all homered off Phillies starter Kyle Gibson with two outs in the first inning. It was the first time that the Cardinals had accomplished the feat, and the first time that it occurred in the first inning.[36] In early September, Carlson was placed on the injured list with a thumb sprain before being activated a little over a week later.[37] Over 432 at-bats in 128 games, he slashed .236/.316/.380 with eight home runs, 42 RBI, and 30 doubles.[38]

In 2023, Carlson played in 76 games for St. Louis, batting .219/.318/.333 with five home runs, 27 RBI, and three stolen bases.[39] On August 12, 2023, Carlson was placed on the injured list with a left oblique strain and left ankle injury.[40] On September 13, manager Oliver Marmol announced that Carlson would undergo season–ending surgery on his left ankle.