John Rooney interviews Flores & Cerfolio on Cardinal podcast

[mattmitchl44]

We do need to develop players but even so, we will very quickly have to start playing the good ones at market or near market rates.

That's why it is important to aggressively extend the young players that you do develop to longer term contracts that lock them up at below market rates (relative to their production) out until they are about age 30, 31. The Cardinals can do that.

BDWJr can easily afford to keep ANY player who's not in the S. Ohtani/J. Soto price range (Re: A 2026 version of Albert).

No need to cry "poor mouth" for Dewitt or to rush extensions.

No current Cardinals deserve an early extension since none will ever be out of Dewitt's reach.

The only one who could emerge and be worthy of that early extension in his third season is JJW, possibly Doyle.

Full market value these days for actual superstars is approaching $35+ million a year.
Full market value for actual stars is approaching $25+ million a year.

How many of those can you float within a $170, $175, $180 million budget and still have enough payroll space to pay you other 20+ guys on your roster - not all of whom are going to be making the ML minimum? You're still going to have ~10 other guys making $5, $10, $15 million a year.

$220M is the new $175M. Baseball inflation is a thing. Bill needs to focus on improving the marketing and revenue producing sides to get us back into the top 10-12.

If your "plan" for the Cardinals to compete in 2026 involves then spending $220 million on payroll, then you don't have a serious plan.

[rockondlouie]

We do need to develop players but even so, we will very quickly have to start playing the good ones at market or near market rates.

That's why it is important to aggressively extend the young players that you do develop to longer term contracts that lock them up at below market rates (relative to their production) out until they are about age 30, 31. The Cardinals can do that.

BDWJr can easily afford to keep ANY player who's not in the S. Ohtani/J. Soto price range (Re: A 2026 version of Albert).

No need to cry "poor mouth" for Dewitt or to rush extensions.

No current Cardinals deserve an early extension since none will ever be out of Dewitt's reach.

The only one who could emerge and be worthy of that early extension in his third season is JJW, possibly Doyle.

Full market value these days for actual superstars is approaching $35+ million a year.
Full market value for actual stars is approaching $25+ million a year.

How many of those can you float within a $170, $175, $180 million budget and still have enough payroll space to pay you other 20+ guys on your roster - not all of whom are going to be making the ML minimum? You're still going to have ~10 other guys making $5, $10, $15 million a year.

BDWJr can afford $35M AAV, right now we have no player even close.

BDWJr can easily afford $25+M AAV, right now we have no player even close.

He also can easily afford a $190-200M payroll given his multi decades drawing 3+M leading to multi-hundreds of millions in retained earnings.

No player on this current roster is worthy of a L-T extension unless their agents have a safe fall on their heads and they (re: M. Winn) accept that $6-$7M AAV you've floated before (News Flash: Not happening).

Better to let M. Winn & I. Hererra (the only two current players even worthy of L-T extension chatter) go through ARB1, Burleson & Libby ARB 2 in 2027 after the new CBA is in place.........then re-evaluate where they are at that point.

JMO, but JJW could be the only players you want to sign to a L-T deal early and only (of course) if he's the player he's seems destined to be.

JMO

And even if they got one $35+ million player and one $25+ million player, their production likely wouldn't offset the losses of Gray, Contreras, Arenado, and Donovan (or Mikolas, Helsley, Matz, etc.).

Even if they signed a couple of really expensive guys their proven talent level would still be behind last year's team that won 78 games. That isn't "competing."

Disagree and of course we're talking about adding that $35+M & $25+M AAV's players in 2027/2028, NOT in 2026.

First, laughable you'd mention Mikolas (STIFF) and NADO (glove only for two seasons).

While good, a $25+M starting pitcher could replace S. Gray's 2025 production.

A $35+M hitter would not only easily replace but exceed WillyC's 2025 .791 OPS.

JJW (likely) also > than Donovan offensively.

Helsey is on the decline, Matz is easily replaced.

A $35+M & $25+M AAV addition would easily exceed last seasons teams win total and compete for the NLC/WC in 2027/2028.

Nowhere in what you originally wrote did you suggest you were talking about spending in 2027/2028. The only thing you mentioned was "right now."

I shouldn't have to since I've mention, oh about a hundred times already that the Cardinals won't be spending any real money in 2026.


Don't lump me in w/the other posters you've been fighting w/who want Dewitt to spend big in 2026.

[rockondlouie]

I always liked Flores. And now that I hear him speak I'm even more impressed. He seems very intelligent and knowledgeable. Cerfolio on the other hand, seems much more (I can't think of the word). He almost seems like he's reading off of a fan site. I don't know much about him but I assume that Bloom does. It was a pretty good interview but there was a lot of repeating that it takes an army and yada yada. Drafting and developing is great but it isn't the end all be all. Nobody goes to the WS just by drafting and developing. You got to spend the ducats. See the Dodgers, Yankee's etc. Don't get me wrong, I'm not knocking that process at all, but I get tired of hearing how all this "teaching" is going to turn a lesser talent into some kind of star player.

Cerfolio is one sharp cookie CC, he could easily be named GM once C. Bloom fills the position.

Is he though? He sounds like someone that'll be hosting a kegger this weekend and does jello shots off of girls stomachs. I didn't really hear him say anything smart. On the other hand, Flores sounds like a GM. I do think Bloom sounds intelligent. He's not won it all but he sounds like he could. But Bloom doesn't decide who plays for the Cards, DeWitt does.

He is, extremely well thought of inside baseball circles and a definite candidate to be Bloom's GM.

BTW, he's also a Yale grad too and they don't churn out dummies.

Read this from J. Denton:

https://www.mlb.com/news/rob-cerfolio-m ... sistant-gm

[CCard]

I always liked Flores. And now that I hear him speak I'm even more impressed. He seems very intelligent and knowledgeable. Cerfolio on the other hand, seems much more (I can't think of the word). He almost seems like he's reading off of a fan site. I don't know much about him but I assume that Bloom does. It was a pretty good interview but there was a lot of repeating that it takes an army and yada yada. Drafting and developing is great but it isn't the end all be all. Nobody goes to the WS just by drafting and developing. You got to spend the ducats. See the Dodgers, Yankee's etc. Don't get me wrong, I'm not knocking that process at all, but I get tired of hearing how all this "teaching" is going to turn a lesser talent into some kind of star player.

Cerfolio is one sharp cookie CC, he could easily be named GM once C. Bloom fills the position.

Is he though? He sounds like someone that'll be hosting a kegger this weekend and does jello shots off of girls stomachs. I didn't really hear him say anything smart. On the other hand, Flores sounds like a GM. I do think Bloom sounds intelligent. He's not won it all but he sounds like he could. But Bloom doesn't decide who plays for the Cards, DeWitt does.

He is, extremely well thought of inside baseball circles and a definite candidate to be Bloom's GM.

BTW, he's also a Yale grad too and they don't churn out dummies.

Read this from J. Denton:

https://www.mlb.com/news/rob-cerfolio-m ... sistant-gm

Sounds great from the article. My impression was from the interview and of course that can be hit or miss sometimes. I hope he's a star for the front office and lifts the Cards. That would be great and I'll reserve my opinion in hopes that he does live up to the hype.

[rockondlouie]

I always liked Flores. And now that I hear him speak I'm even more impressed. He seems very intelligent and knowledgeable. Cerfolio on the other hand, seems much more (I can't think of the word). He almost seems like he's reading off of a fan site. I don't know much about him but I assume that Bloom does. It was a pretty good interview but there was a lot of repeating that it takes an army and yada yada. Drafting and developing is great but it isn't the end all be all. Nobody goes to the WS just by drafting and developing. You got to spend the ducats. See the Dodgers, Yankee's etc. Don't get me wrong, I'm not knocking that process at all, but I get tired of hearing how all this "teaching" is going to turn a lesser talent into some kind of star player.

Cerfolio is one sharp cookie CC, he could easily be named GM once C. Bloom fills the position.

Is he though? He sounds like someone that'll be hosting a kegger this weekend and does jello shots off of girls stomachs. I didn't really hear him say anything smart. On the other hand, Flores sounds like a GM. I do think Bloom sounds intelligent. He's not won it all but he sounds like he could. But Bloom doesn't decide who plays for the Cards, DeWitt does.

He is, extremely well thought of inside baseball circles and a definite candidate to be Bloom's GM.

BTW, he's also a Yale grad too and they don't churn out dummies.

Read this from J. Denton:

https://www.mlb.com/news/rob-cerfolio-m ... sistant-gm

Sounds great from the article. My impression was from the interview and of course that can be hit or miss sometimes. I hope he's a star for the front office and lifts the Cards. That would be great and I'll reserve my opinion in hopes that he does live up to the hype.

Agreed

(Some guys are smooth in interviews, others don't come across well but still have it upstairs)

[Bomber1]

Nobody goes to the WS just by drafting and developing. You got to spend the ducats.

Nobody really disagrees with that - however, the key is that you have to spend money wisely. If you are a team like the Cardinals, when you are ready to "win now", you can't afford to have expensive contracts on your books that are "underwater." So when you spend and exactly who you spend on are of vital importance.

Nobody knows that "wisely" part you speak of. It's all about taking a chance that a talent will perform. Brett Cecil should have performed better than he did. Some say his peripherals were maybe a warning sign, and that is the informed opinion side of it, but if he had performed well the Cards would have looked smart. The battlefield is littered with the "wisely" corpses of players that should've but didn't perform. Look at Ozuna. If he'd performed, who knows.

I think when Matt says “you need to spend money wisely” he essentially means to do the exact opposite of Mozeliak’s approach, which was to overpay for mediocre players because he/they would not invest in top Free Agents.

When your approach is to give multi-year contracts to:
Cecil
A. Miller
Fowler
Holland (1-year deal but a disaster nonetheless)
Gregerson
Matz
The clown SP from Cincinnati that he paid to go to Seattle

It’s like “death from a thousand paper cuts” because even though none were mega-contracts money-wise, you add those and other Mozeliak failure signings and you have more than $450,000,000.

The only very successful multi-year FA Mozeliak signed that I can think of was Matt Holliday who had already played for the Cardinals the previous year.

[CCard]

Nobody goes to the WS just by drafting and developing. You got to spend the ducats.

Nobody really disagrees with that - however, the key is that you have to spend money wisely. If you are a team like the Cardinals, when you are ready to "win now", you can't afford to have expensive contracts on your books that are "underwater." So when you spend and exactly who you spend on are of vital importance.

Nobody knows that "wisely" part you speak of. It's all about taking a chance that a talent will perform. Brett Cecil should have performed better than he did. Some say his peripherals were maybe a warning sign, and that is the informed opinion side of it, but if he had performed well the Cards would have looked smart. The battlefield is littered with the "wisely" corpses of players that should've but didn't perform. Look at Ozuna. If he'd performed, who knows.

I think when Matt says “you need to spend money wisely” he essentially means to do the exact opposite of Mozeliak’s approach, which was to overpay for mediocre players because he/they would not invest in top Free Agents.

When your approach is to give multi-year contracts to:
Cecil
A. Miller
Fowler
Holland (1-year deal but a disaster nonetheless)
Gregerson
Matz
The clown SP from Cincinnati that he paid to go to Seattle

It’s like “death from a thousand paper cuts” because even though none were mega-contracts money-wise, you add those and other Mozeliak failure signings and you have more than $450,000,000.

The only very successful multi-year FA Mozeliak signed that I can think of was Matt Holliday who had already played for the Cardinals the previous year.

And yet you could say that if they had played up to their potential the signings would have been okay. Just like the trade for Ozuna. Most were extremely okay with getting an all-star caliber outfielder for a couple of young guys that weren't even going to make the Cards rotation. Hindsight is 20/20.

[Bomber1]

Nobody goes to the WS just by drafting and developing. You got to spend the ducats.

Nobody really disagrees with that - however, the key is that you have to spend money wisely. If you are a team like the Cardinals, when you are ready to "win now", you can't afford to have expensive contracts on your books that are "underwater." So when you spend and exactly who you spend on are of vital importance.

Nobody knows that "wisely" part you speak of. It's all about taking a chance that a talent will perform. Brett Cecil should have performed better than he did. Some say his peripherals were maybe a warning sign, and that is the informed opinion side of it, but if he had performed well the Cards would have looked smart. The battlefield is littered with the "wisely" corpses of players that should've but didn't perform. Look at Ozuna. If he'd performed, who knows.

I think when Matt says “you need to spend money wisely” he essentially means to do the exact opposite of Mozeliak’s approach, which was to overpay for mediocre players because he/they would not invest in top Free Agents.

When your approach is to give multi-year contracts to:
Cecil
A. Miller
Fowler
Holland (1-year deal but a disaster nonetheless)
Gregerson
Matz
The clown SP from Cincinnati that he paid to go to Seattle

It’s like “death from a thousand paper cuts” because even though none were mega-contracts money-wise, you add those and other Mozeliak failure signings and you have more than $450,000,000.

The only very successful multi-year FA Mozeliak signed that I can think of was Matt Holliday who had already played for the Cardinals the previous year.

And yet you could say that if they had played up to their potential the signings would have been okay. Just like the trade for Ozuna. Most were extremely okay with getting an all-star caliber outfielder for a couple of young guys that weren't even going to make the Cards rotation. Hindsight is 20/20.

Yes Mozeliak made a habit of signing guys who didn’t play up to their potential. It hard to imagine being wrong as often as Mozeliak.

[Cranny]

I always liked Flores. And now that I hear him speak I'm even more impressed. He seems very intelligent and knowledgeable. Cerfolio on the other hand, seems much more (I can't think of the word). He almost seems like he's reading off of a fan site. I don't know much about him but I assume that Bloom does. It was a pretty good interview but there was a lot of repeating that it takes an army and yada yada. Drafting and developing is great but it isn't the end all be all. Nobody goes to the WS just by drafting and developing. You got to spend the ducats. See the Dodgers, Yankee's etc. Don't get me wrong, I'm not knocking that process at all, but I get tired of hearing how all this "teaching" is going to turn a lesser talent into some kind of star player.

It is helpful that they do these interviews. They aren't just rebuilding a farm system, they are rebuilding the perception of the Cardinals development system to the rest of the industry. When people in the industry feel like there is extensive and comprehensive teaching and training going on, your prospects will be ranked higher. Teams will value your prospects more highly when it comes to trades if they believe your development system is good. Keep doing the interviews.

Also, if you are going into somewhat of a rebuild/reset/restructure, it's helpful to be transparent with the fan base and build confidence that the organization has a plan and a clear sense of direction. Unfortunately, that kind of communication has been lacking the past few years, probably because the FO/ownership didn't have a confident sense of direction to convey.

Cardinal fans expect winning baseball. The Cardinals game plan, which was “confused” to some, was to build for the future while still making the playoffs. Having guys like Goldy, Arenado, Contreras, Gray, etc., while bringing along guys like Winn, Burleson, Walker, Winn, Gorman, and Herrera.

The Cardinals’ “game plan” (as you call it) was “confused”—the stark organizational pivot is a clear admission of that. They publicly stated three objectives: 1) “compete every year”; 2) build from the farm system; and 3) maintain a payroll commensurate with their mid-market revenue. Some outside commentators and even several members of this forum noted contemporaneously that they needed to pick two, because having all three was unrealistic for a mid-market team given MLB’s current economics. As it turned out, those posters were closer to right (and ownership and you were wrong). But to ownership’s credit, they finally decided to change, just as you subsequently changed your tune (without admitting it, of course).

Ownership and the FO engaged in unrealistic, arguably arrogant thinking: for some reason, they seemed to believe that because they were the Cardinals, the economic and competitive laws of gravity that apply to every other mid- and small-market team didn’t apply to them. They were wrong (as were you). Sorry, Cranny, but as CEO and principal owner, BDWJr has to take responsibility and accountability for that. The recent reset and strategic pivot are a repudiation of that old “game plan,” which you defended tooth and nail all the way up to and even in the days after the big press conference announcing the regime change.

But we shouldn’t let the past stand in the way of giving them credit now for making a concerted effort to communicate a clearer, more realistic vision and plan to their fan base.

The team was set up to win. They had solid veterans and some talented newcomers. You simply won't admit that it was
a perfect storm. Noone expected Goldy and Arendo to go backward so fast. Noone anticipated that Walker and Gorman would struggle after making fairly strong ML starts. Noone anticipated that the pitchers they got at the deadline would
all get injured.

[OldRed]

I always liked Flores. And now that I hear him speak I'm even more impressed. He seems very intelligent and knowledgeable. Cerfolio on the other hand, seems much more (I can't think of the word). He almost seems like he's reading off of a fan site. I don't know much about him but I assume that Bloom does. It was a pretty good interview but there was a lot of repeating that it takes an army and yada yada. Drafting and developing is great but it isn't the end all be all. Nobody goes to the WS just by drafting and developing. You got to spend the ducats. See the Dodgers, Yankee's etc. Don't get me wrong, I'm not knocking that process at all, but I get tired of hearing how all this "teaching" is going to turn a lesser talent into some kind of star player.

It is helpful that they do these interviews. They aren't just rebuilding a farm system, they are rebuilding the perception of the Cardinals development system to the rest of the industry. When people in the industry feel like there is extensive and comprehensive teaching and training going on, your prospects will be ranked higher. Teams will value your prospects more highly when it comes to trades if they believe your development system is good. Keep doing the interviews.

Also, if you are going into somewhat of a rebuild/reset/restructure, it's helpful to be transparent with the fan base and build confidence that the organization has a plan and a clear sense of direction. Unfortunately, that kind of communication has been lacking the past few years, probably because the FO/ownership didn't have a confident sense of direction to convey.

Cardinal fans expect winning baseball. The Cardinals game plan, which was “confused” to some, was to build for the future while still making the playoffs. Having guys like Goldy, Arenado, Contreras, Gray, etc., while bringing along guys like Winn, Burleson, Walker, Winn, Gorman, and Herrera.

The Cardinals’ “game plan” (as you call it) was “confused”—the stark organizational pivot is a clear admission of that. They publicly stated three objectives: 1) “compete every year”; 2) build from the farm system; and 3) maintain a payroll commensurate with their mid-market revenue. Some outside commentators and even several members of this forum noted contemporaneously that they needed to pick two, because having all three was unrealistic for a mid-market team given MLB’s current economics. As it turned out, those posters were closer to right (and ownership and you were wrong). But to ownership’s credit, they finally decided to change, just as you subsequently changed your tune (without admitting it, of course).

Ownership and the FO engaged in unrealistic, arguably arrogant thinking: for some reason, they seemed to believe that because they were the Cardinals, the economic and competitive laws of gravity that apply to every other mid- and small-market team didn’t apply to them. They were wrong (as were you). Sorry, Cranny, but as CEO and principal owner, BDWJr has to take responsibility and accountability for that. The recent reset and strategic pivot are a repudiation of that old “game plan,” which you defended tooth and nail all the way up to and even in the days after the big press conference announcing the regime change.

But we shouldn’t let the past stand in the way of giving them credit now for making a concerted effort to communicate a clearer, more realistic vision and plan to their fan base.

The team was set up to win. They had solid veterans and some talented newcomers. You simply won't admit that it was
a perfect storm. Noone expected Goldy and Arendo to go backward so fast. Noone anticipated that Walker and Gorman would struggle after making fairly strong ML starts. Noone anticipated that the pitchers they got at the deadline would
all get injured.

None expected Goldy and Arendo to go backwards should watch the normal aging of baseball players
None expected Gorman and Walker should realize neither really had proved anything.
None who anticipates to pitchers to get injured should follow baseball a little closer.

[mattmitchl44]

Nobody goes to the WS just by drafting and developing. You got to spend the ducats.

Nobody really disagrees with that - however, the key is that you have to spend money wisely. If you are a team like the Cardinals, when you are ready to "win now", you can't afford to have expensive contracts on your books that are "underwater." So when you spend and exactly who you spend on are of vital importance.

Nobody knows that "wisely" part you speak of. It's all about taking a chance that a talent will perform. Brett Cecil should have performed better than he did. Some say his peripherals were maybe a warning sign, and that is the informed opinion side of it, but if he had performed well the Cards would have looked smart. The battlefield is littered with the "wisely" corpses of players that should've but didn't perform. Look at Ozuna. If he'd performed, who knows.

I think when Matt says “you need to spend money wisely” he essentially means to do the exact opposite of Mozeliak’s approach, which was to overpay for mediocre players because he/they would not invest in top Free Agents.

When your approach is to give multi-year contracts to:
Cecil
A. Miller
Fowler
Holland (1-year deal but a disaster nonetheless)
Gregerson
Matz
The clown SP from Cincinnati that he paid to go to Seattle

It’s like “death from a thousand paper cuts” because even though none were mega-contracts money-wise, you add those and other Mozeliak failure signings and you have more than $450,000,000.

The only very successful multi-year FA Mozeliak signed that I can think of was Matt Holliday who had already played for the Cardinals the previous year.

And yet you could say that if they had played up to their potential the signings would have been okay. Just like the trade for Ozuna. Most were extremely okay with getting an all-star caliber outfielder for a couple of young guys that weren't even going to make the Cards rotation. Hindsight is 20/20.

Just like prospects, there is ever only a probability that any player signed is going to play up to the level that you decided to pay them for.

When an FA signing misses, it invariably does a good deal more damage (by tying up a finite amount of payroll) to the team's ability to compete than a prospect missing.

[Alex Reyes Cy Young]

Podcast video from Dec. 10th (two days ago ).. 41 min. 35 sec.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMQdrsiaKSs

Good interview by Rooney with some excellent questions for Randy Flores and Rob Cerfolio
Players discussed include : JJ, Doyle, Mautz, and more...

Incredible interview! Thanks man

Read between lines, Moe could careless about player development. Guys had to go 3rd party to get better. Wow, pathetic.

[CCard]

Nobody goes to the WS just by drafting and developing. You got to spend the ducats.

Nobody really disagrees with that - however, the key is that you have to spend money wisely. If you are a team like the Cardinals, when you are ready to "win now", you can't afford to have expensive contracts on your books that are "underwater." So when you spend and exactly who you spend on are of vital importance.

Nobody knows that "wisely" part you speak of. It's all about taking a chance that a talent will perform. Brett Cecil should have performed better than he did. Some say his peripherals were maybe a warning sign, and that is the informed opinion side of it, but if he had performed well the Cards would have looked smart. The battlefield is littered with the "wisely" corpses of players that should've but didn't perform. Look at Ozuna. If he'd performed, who knows.

I think when Matt says “you need to spend money wisely” he essentially means to do the exact opposite of Mozeliak’s approach, which was to overpay for mediocre players because he/they would not invest in top Free Agents.

When your approach is to give multi-year contracts to:
Cecil
A. Miller
Fowler
Holland (1-year deal but a disaster nonetheless)
Gregerson
Matz
The clown SP from Cincinnati that he paid to go to Seattle

It’s like “death from a thousand paper cuts” because even though none were mega-contracts money-wise, you add those and other Mozeliak failure signings and you have more than $450,000,000.

The only very successful multi-year FA Mozeliak signed that I can think of was Matt Holliday who had already played for the Cardinals the previous year.

And yet you could say that if they had played up to their potential the signings would have been okay. Just like the trade for Ozuna. Most were extremely okay with getting an all-star caliber outfielder for a couple of young guys that weren't even going to make the Cards rotation. Hindsight is 20/20.

Just like prospects, there is ever only a probability that any player signed is going to play up to the level that you decided to pay them for.

When an FA signing misses, it invariably does a good deal more damage (by tying up a finite amount of payroll) to the team's ability to compete than a prospect missing.

At the same time, free agents are a more known quality than minor league players though. Most free agents that are top tier do produce at least through some of their contract. Bringing a player along in the minors takes years usually and then they still fail a majority of the time.

[CCard]

Nobody goes to the WS just by drafting and developing. You got to spend the ducats.

Nobody really disagrees with that - however, the key is that you have to spend money wisely. If you are a team like the Cardinals, when you are ready to "win now", you can't afford to have expensive contracts on your books that are "underwater." So when you spend and exactly who you spend on are of vital importance.

Nobody knows that "wisely" part you speak of. It's all about taking a chance that a talent will perform. Brett Cecil should have performed better than he did. Some say his peripherals were maybe a warning sign, and that is the informed opinion side of it, but if he had performed well the Cards would have looked smart. The battlefield is littered with the "wisely" corpses of players that should've but didn't perform. Look at Ozuna. If he'd performed, who knows.

I think when Matt says “you need to spend money wisely” he essentially means to do the exact opposite of Mozeliak’s approach, which was to overpay for mediocre players because he/they would not invest in top Free Agents.

When your approach is to give multi-year contracts to:
Cecil
A. Miller
Fowler
Holland (1-year deal but a disaster nonetheless)
Gregerson
Matz
The clown SP from Cincinnati that he paid to go to Seattle

It’s like “death from a thousand paper cuts” because even though none were mega-contracts money-wise, you add those and other Mozeliak failure signings and you have more than $450,000,000.

The only very successful multi-year FA Mozeliak signed that I can think of was Matt Holliday who had already played for the Cardinals the previous year.

And yet you could say that if they had played up to their potential the signings would have been okay. Just like the trade for Ozuna. Most were extremely okay with getting an all-star caliber outfielder for a couple of young guys that weren't even going to make the Cards rotation. Hindsight is 20/20.

Yes Mozeliak made a habit of signing guys who didn’t play up to their potential. It hard to imagine being wrong as often as Mozeliak.

Some of it you can lay at his feet, but you don't know the whole story. Did Dewitt want that player? Was there salary constraints that made that player be signed and not a better player? Maybe it was all Mo, but I have a tendency to think the guy that signs the checks is where the blame has to land. As Truman used to say, "The buck stops here."

[mattmitchl44]

Nobody goes to the WS just by drafting and developing. You got to spend the ducats.

Nobody really disagrees with that - however, the key is that you have to spend money wisely. If you are a team like the Cardinals, when you are ready to "win now", you can't afford to have expensive contracts on your books that are "underwater." So when you spend and exactly who you spend on are of vital importance.

Nobody knows that "wisely" part you speak of. It's all about taking a chance that a talent will perform. Brett Cecil should have performed better than he did. Some say his peripherals were maybe a warning sign, and that is the informed opinion side of it, but if he had performed well the Cards would have looked smart. The battlefield is littered with the "wisely" corpses of players that should've but didn't perform. Look at Ozuna. If he'd performed, who knows.

I think when Matt says “you need to spend money wisely” he essentially means to do the exact opposite of Mozeliak’s approach, which was to overpay for mediocre players because he/they would not invest in top Free Agents.

When your approach is to give multi-year contracts to:
Cecil
A. Miller
Fowler
Holland (1-year deal but a disaster nonetheless)
Gregerson
Matz
The clown SP from Cincinnati that he paid to go to Seattle

It’s like “death from a thousand paper cuts” because even though none were mega-contracts money-wise, you add those and other Mozeliak failure signings and you have more than $450,000,000.

The only very successful multi-year FA Mozeliak signed that I can think of was Matt Holliday who had already played for the Cardinals the previous year.

And yet you could say that if they had played up to their potential the signings would have been okay. Just like the trade for Ozuna. Most were extremely okay with getting an all-star caliber outfielder for a couple of young guys that weren't even going to make the Cards rotation. Hindsight is 20/20.

Just like prospects, there is ever only a probability that any player signed is going to play up to the level that you decided to pay them for.

When an FA signing misses, it invariably does a good deal more damage (by tying up a finite amount of payroll) to the team's ability to compete than a prospect missing.

At the same time, free agents are a more known quality than minor league players though. Most free agents that are top tier do produce at least through some of their contract. Bringing a player along in the minors takes years usually and then they still fail a majority of the time.

Sure:

FA signings are medium to big "bets" in terms of payroll that have limited upside but which you hope have a high floor.
Prospects are little "bets" that have potential big upside but which always have a floor of busting entirely.

But, again, the irreconcilable problem is that, for a $175, $180 million payroll, you can't construct a highly competitive roster by learning primarily on medium to big "bets" in that have limited upside. You have to lean on many, many little "bets" and trust that, if your organization is good at acquiring and developing them, enough of them will hit to give you the foundation for a highly competitive roster.

[CCard]

Nobody goes to the WS just by drafting and developing. You got to spend the ducats.

Nobody really disagrees with that - however, the key is that you have to spend money wisely. If you are a team like the Cardinals, when you are ready to "win now", you can't afford to have expensive contracts on your books that are "underwater." So when you spend and exactly who you spend on are of vital importance.

Nobody knows that "wisely" part you speak of. It's all about taking a chance that a talent will perform. Brett Cecil should have performed better than he did. Some say his peripherals were maybe a warning sign, and that is the informed opinion side of it, but if he had performed well the Cards would have looked smart. The battlefield is littered with the "wisely" corpses of players that should've but didn't perform. Look at Ozuna. If he'd performed, who knows.

I think when Matt says “you need to spend money wisely” he essentially means to do the exact opposite of Mozeliak’s approach, which was to overpay for mediocre players because he/they would not invest in top Free Agents.

When your approach is to give multi-year contracts to:
Cecil
A. Miller
Fowler
Holland (1-year deal but a disaster nonetheless)
Gregerson
Matz
The clown SP from Cincinnati that he paid to go to Seattle

It’s like “death from a thousand paper cuts” because even though none were mega-contracts money-wise, you add those and other Mozeliak failure signings and you have more than $450,000,000.

The only very successful multi-year FA Mozeliak signed that I can think of was Matt Holliday who had already played for the Cardinals the previous year.

And yet you could say that if they had played up to their potential the signings would have been okay. Just like the trade for Ozuna. Most were extremely okay with getting an all-star caliber outfielder for a couple of young guys that weren't even going to make the Cards rotation. Hindsight is 20/20.

Just like prospects, there is ever only a probability that any player signed is going to play up to the level that you decided to pay them for.

When an FA signing misses, it invariably does a good deal more damage (by tying up a finite amount of payroll) to the team's ability to compete than a prospect missing.

At the same time, free agents are a more known quality than minor league players though. Most free agents that are top tier do produce at least through some of their contract. Bringing a player along in the minors takes years usually and then they still fail a majority of the time.

Sure:

FA signings are medium to big "bets" in terms of payroll that have limited upside but which you hope have a high floor.
Prospects are little "bets" that have potential big upside but which always have a floor of busting entirely.

But, again, the irreconcilable problem is that, for a $175, $180 million payroll, you can't construct a highly competitive roster by learning primarily on medium to big "bets" in that have limited upside. You have to lean on many, many little "bets" and trust that, if your organization is good at acquiring and developing them, enough of them will hit to give you the foundation for a highly competitive roster.

Another way to look at it is that free agents are a known quantity, while unproven minor league talent is not. Also typically free agents have gone through a lot more growing pains and learned from them. Also, there's just no excuse not to field a competitive team. I mean what are you doing? Saving money for a billionaire owner while fans stay away in droves. Why not spend the competitive amount for a mid-market team and give people a reason to come to the park? You all act like we need to save poor DeWitt's money so hopefully he can get a lot of cheap talent and then compete. It's just not logical thinking in my book.