Question for those not wanting to Rebuild

[CCard]

They got extremely lucky with signing a hurt Chris Carpenter and trading for a young minor league pitcher from Atlanta, Adam Wainwright. Without those two there are no championships. But they got Edmonds from the Angels and he starred for them. They have always had pretty good catchers, but getting Molina really made them strong up the middle with Edmonds in Center. A Molina doesn't come around often. Then of course they brought up Albert because of an injury to Bonilla and he stayed. They signed a little shortstop by the name of David Eckstein that played bigger than he should have. And Larry Walker. So it takes a lot more than drafting and developing. It takes acquiring talent at the major league level also.

No one ever claimed that you only draft and develop home grown players and don't acquire major league talent. My entire point is that you get really good at drafting and developing so that you have a good enough base, and maybe some homegrown stars, so that you can succeed by bringing in outside talent to take you to the next level. And that's exactly how the Cardinals had success for years.

You say the only way they win any championships is because of Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. Maybe that's true, but I think you're excluding two HUGE homegrown players in Yadi and Albert. Also, they got Adam Wainwright because they traded a homegrown stud player in JD Drew for him. And they got Jim Edmonds because they traded a very good young homegrown player in Adam Kennedy for him.

So, you got Wainwright, Pujols, Molina, and Edmonds, two definite HOFers, one probably should be, and another pretty close. All either drafted and developed or traded for because of a player you drafted and developed. That allows you to go out and sign an Eckstein (a pretty low level signing that a lot of people panned at the time because they said they were being cheap for not re-signing Renteria) and a Larry Walker (salary dump) to put you over the top.

Yeah, we could do this all day long and get no where. I again state that drafting and developing is important and should be amongst one of the things that winning organizations do constantly and not on a whim. Nobody, and I mean nobody knew that Pujols would be that good. They knew Molina would be good defensively but nobody knew he would develop with the bat like he did. But he did that at the major league level.They got a great deal on Edmonds. They got a great deal on Wainwright, but again, he was a minor leaguer and could have turned into a bust. If they knew he would be that good, Atlanta would never have traded him for Drew. Not even straight up. Wainwright probably became the pitcher he was because of Dave Duncan. Eckstein was a lucky signing. The thing I'm stating is that you don't just depend on drafting and developing which takes years to produce. Winning is about winning now. You give yourself a chance to win every season, if not then why even field a team? Just let them play in the minors and field a team every 3 or 4 years. Stupid isn't it?

Smoltz was reportedly very upset the Braves traded Waino. The org new he was good, but JD Drew was a stud too.
Eckstein was not a lucky signing. He was decent for ANA too.

Most CTers aren't against trades and signings.

But if you don't have a pipeline of young, MLB talent, then when you're able to obtain a Goldy or Arenado, the talent is wasted because the rest of the roster is suspect, like in 2022.

LOL...Show me a team in the MLB that doesn't have a "Pipeline" of young talent. That's what the minors are all about. Springfield just won a championship, you think there isn't any talent there? There's plenty of talent in the minors but most isn't top 10 talent and you only get that talent by losing profusely. The Cards were one of the top winning teams for nearly two decades and it wan't solely about drafting and teaching because frankly, that's always been a little suspect. (Braden Looper, Brett Wallace) amongst other misses. But making smart trades and signings were what made them winners. That and the fact that other teams in the Central spent much time sucking. Then the Cards got in to the playoffs and got hot a couple of times. If you don't trade for or sign top free agent talent you will not do well mostly.

[mattmitchl44]

They got extremely lucky with signing a hurt Chris Carpenter and trading for a young minor league pitcher from Atlanta, Adam Wainwright. Without those two there are no championships. But they got Edmonds from the Angels and he starred for them. They have always had pretty good catchers, but getting Molina really made them strong up the middle with Edmonds in Center. A Molina doesn't come around often. Then of course they brought up Albert because of an injury to Bonilla and he stayed. They signed a little shortstop by the name of David Eckstein that played bigger than he should have. And Larry Walker. So it takes a lot more than drafting and developing. It takes acquiring talent at the major league level also.

No one ever claimed that you only draft and develop home grown players and don't acquire major league talent. My entire point is that you get really good at drafting and developing so that you have a good enough base, and maybe some homegrown stars, so that you can succeed by bringing in outside talent to take you to the next level. And that's exactly how the Cardinals had success for years.

You say the only way they win any championships is because of Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. Maybe that's true, but I think you're excluding two HUGE homegrown players in Yadi and Albert. Also, they got Adam Wainwright because they traded a homegrown stud player in JD Drew for him. And they got Jim Edmonds because they traded a very good young homegrown player in Adam Kennedy for him.

So, you got Wainwright, Pujols, Molina, and Edmonds, two definite HOFers, one probably should be, and another pretty close. All either drafted and developed or traded for because of a player you drafted and developed. That allows you to go out and sign an Eckstein (a pretty low level signing that a lot of people panned at the time because they said they were being cheap for not re-signing Renteria) and a Larry Walker (salary dump) to put you over the top.

Yeah, we could do this all day long and get no where. I again state that drafting and developing is important and should be amongst one of the things that winning organizations do constantly and not on a whim. Nobody, and I mean nobody knew that Pujols would be that good. They knew Molina would be good defensively but nobody knew he would develop with the bat like he did. But he did that at the major league level.They got a great deal on Edmonds. They got a great deal on Wainwright, but again, he was a minor leaguer and could have turned into a bust. If they knew he would be that good, Atlanta would never have traded him for Drew. Not even straight up. Wainwright probably became the pitcher he was because of Dave Duncan. Eckstein was a lucky signing. The thing I'm stating is that you don't just depend on drafting and developing which takes years to produce. Winning is about winning now. You give yourself a chance to win every season, if not then why even field a team? Just let them play in the minors and field a team every 3 or 4 years. Stupid isn't it?

You never come to grips with the fact that you don't offer an implementable alternative.

The Cardinals are NEVER going to be able to pay five full market value stars/superstars on their roster at the same time, let alone another few above average players, and then a bunch of solid regulars/role players.

No matter how you want to define "competing", the Cardinals have to get (1) half of their talent and (2) over half of their 26 players from pre-ARB and ARB players. And most of those are going to have to be guys they developed themselves.

You don't want them to actually "compete", because we know they are in no position to do so right now. You just want them to "try" so that it makes you feel better. You want to be pacified by the "appearance of competing" not actually "competing."

LOL... You talk like the Cards are some broke dick dog. They were one of the highest drawing teams in MLB for a decade or more. They have revenue streams you can't even imagine. The one thing they don't have is the Mega tv deals that teams like New York and LA have, but until recently they had a tv deal that wasn't awful. It's hard to market a team that's 20 games out at the end of the season though. The Cards make well enough to have a payroll of 180-200 million. Stop with the cheap pity party. On top of that, Dewitt and his cabal are frigging billionaires. They aren't worried about a few million here and a few million there and yet they are. You might have some point with a team like Tampa that doesn't draw dick, but you can't claim that with the Cards and their following.

After you account for the 2026 money they will have to send with Gray, Arenado, and likely Contreras, you would have maybe $100 million to work with to get to ~$175 or $180 million.

After you account for how much total talent you are subtracting from even the 78 win 2025 team by losing Gray, Arenado, Contreras, Donovan, Mikolas, Matz, Helsley, Maton (about 13 wins), you have about a 65 win roster. Assuming some growth in the players left plus if you add any ML talent from the trades plus Wetherholt, let's say it's a 70-75 win roster as a starting point for 2026.

Your $100 million likely buys you ~10 wins at FA market rates. So you are back at $175-$180 million with a mediocre 80-85 win team. That's exactly the place the Cardinals are trying to get out of being stuck.

[CCard]

They got extremely lucky with signing a hurt Chris Carpenter and trading for a young minor league pitcher from Atlanta, Adam Wainwright. Without those two there are no championships. But they got Edmonds from the Angels and he starred for them. They have always had pretty good catchers, but getting Molina really made them strong up the middle with Edmonds in Center. A Molina doesn't come around often. Then of course they brought up Albert because of an injury to Bonilla and he stayed. They signed a little shortstop by the name of David Eckstein that played bigger than he should have. And Larry Walker. So it takes a lot more than drafting and developing. It takes acquiring talent at the major league level also.

No one ever claimed that you only draft and develop home grown players and don't acquire major league talent. My entire point is that you get really good at drafting and developing so that you have a good enough base, and maybe some homegrown stars, so that you can succeed by bringing in outside talent to take you to the next level. And that's exactly how the Cardinals had success for years.

You say the only way they win any championships is because of Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. Maybe that's true, but I think you're excluding two HUGE homegrown players in Yadi and Albert. Also, they got Adam Wainwright because they traded a homegrown stud player in JD Drew for him. And they got Jim Edmonds because they traded a very good young homegrown player in Adam Kennedy for him.

So, you got Wainwright, Pujols, Molina, and Edmonds, two definite HOFers, one probably should be, and another pretty close. All either drafted and developed or traded for because of a player you drafted and developed. That allows you to go out and sign an Eckstein (a pretty low level signing that a lot of people panned at the time because they said they were being cheap for not re-signing Renteria) and a Larry Walker (salary dump) to put you over the top.

Yeah, we could do this all day long and get no where. I again state that drafting and developing is important and should be amongst one of the things that winning organizations do constantly and not on a whim. Nobody, and I mean nobody knew that Pujols would be that good. They knew Molina would be good defensively but nobody knew he would develop with the bat like he did. But he did that at the major league level.They got a great deal on Edmonds. They got a great deal on Wainwright, but again, he was a minor leaguer and could have turned into a bust. If they knew he would be that good, Atlanta would never have traded him for Drew. Not even straight up. Wainwright probably became the pitcher he was because of Dave Duncan. Eckstein was a lucky signing. The thing I'm stating is that you don't just depend on drafting and developing which takes years to produce. Winning is about winning now. You give yourself a chance to win every season, if not then why even field a team? Just let them play in the minors and field a team every 3 or 4 years. Stupid isn't it?

You never come to grips with the fact that you don't offer an implementable alternative.

The Cardinals are NEVER going to be able to pay five full market value stars/superstars on their roster at the same time, let alone another few above average players, and then a bunch of solid regulars/role players.

No matter how you want to define "competing", the Cardinals have to get (1) half of their talent and (2) over half of their 26 players from pre-ARB and ARB players. And most of those are going to have to be guys they developed themselves.

You don't want them to actually "compete", because we know they are in no position to do so right now. You just want them to "try" so that it makes you feel better. You want to be pacified by the "appearance of competing" not actually "competing."

LOL... You talk like the Cards are some broke dick dog. They were one of the highest drawing teams in MLB for a decade or more. They have revenue streams you can't even imagine. The one thing they don't have is the Mega tv deals that teams like New York and LA have, but until recently they had a tv deal that wasn't awful. It's hard to market a team that's 20 games out at the end of the season though. The Cards make well enough to have a payroll of 180-200 million. Stop with the cheap pity party. On top of that, Dewitt and his cabal are frigging billionaires. They aren't worried about a few million here and a few million there and yet they are. You might have some point with a team like Tampa that doesn't draw dick, but you can't claim that with the Cards and their following.

After you account for the 2026 money they will have to send with Gray, Arenado, and likely Contreras, you would have maybe $100 million to work with to get to ~$175 or $180 million.

After you account for how much total talent you are subtracting from even the 78 win 2025 team by losing Gray, Arenado, Contreras, Donovan, Mikolas, Matz, Helsley, Maton (about 13 wins), you have about a 65 win roster. Assuming some growth in the players left plus if you add any ML talent from the trades plus Wetherholt, let's say it's a 70-75 win roster as a starting point for 2026.

Your $100 million likely buys you ~10 wins at FA market rates. So you are back at $175-$180 million with a mediocre 80-85 win team. That's exactly the place the Cardinals are trying to get out of being stuck.

If your numbers are right, they would need some luck to make the playoffs but it's possible. Add a little more and they make the playoffs probably. Once in the playoffs they have a chance to make a run. Teams can and have done that. Competitive teams draw more fans so not only does it lift a team but it actually lifts a teams bottom line. Losing doesn't do that. Losing Gray hurts. Losing Donovan hurts. But if they get top talent in return then not so much. Losing Mikolas and Matz is a plus. Any replacement is likely to do as well or better IMO. Easing the pressure on Walker and Scott by improving the team can only help them at worst. This team should add quality free agents to help and make the playoffs.

[mattmitchl44]

If your numbers are right, they would need some luck to make the playoffs but it's possible. Add a little more and they make the playoffs probably. Once in the playoffs they have a chance to make a run. Teams can and have done that. Competitive teams draw more fans so not only does it lift a team but it actually lifts a teams bottom line. Losing doesn't do that. Losing Gray hurts. Losing Donovan hurts. But if they get top talent in return then not so much. Losing Mikolas and Matz is a plus. Any replacement is likely to do as well or better IMO. Easing the pressure on Walker and Scott by improving the team can only help them at worst. This team should add quality free agents to help and make the playoffs.

The Cardinals are trying to build an organizational future that isn't so dependent on luck.

And, no, if you have a consistently Top 5 farm system, basing your roster construction on the annual development of prospects isn't "luck."

[CCard]

If your numbers are right, they would need some luck to make the playoffs but it's possible. Add a little more and they make the playoffs probably. Once in the playoffs they have a chance to make a run. Teams can and have done that. Competitive teams draw more fans so not only does it lift a team but it actually lifts a teams bottom line. Losing doesn't do that. Losing Gray hurts. Losing Donovan hurts. But if they get top talent in return then not so much. Losing Mikolas and Matz is a plus. Any replacement is likely to do as well or better IMO. Easing the pressure on Walker and Scott by improving the team can only help them at worst. This team should add quality free agents to help and make the playoffs.

The Cardinals are trying to build an organizational future that isn't so dependent on luck.

And, no, if you have a consistently Top 5 farm system, basing your roster construction on the annual development of prospects isn't "luck."

The problem is you can't consistently keep a top 5 farm system. You're subject to the eccentricities of the draft. You draft good it helps you win, you win you get a worse draft position. This up and down process can be mitigated with good free agent signings but success will always leave you in a poorer draft position. You can hope for lightning from lower picks and supplement with free agents or you can put your eggs into losing and drafting high. We see the Pittsburghs and Miami's getting these high picks but it never seems to make them winners. I wonder why.

[renostl]

If your numbers are right, they would need some luck to make the playoffs but it's possible. Add a little more and they make the playoffs probably. Once in the playoffs they have a chance to make a run. Teams can and have done that. Competitive teams draw more fans so not only does it lift a team but it actually lifts a teams bottom line. Losing doesn't do that. Losing Gray hurts. Losing Donovan hurts. But if they get top talent in return then not so much. Losing Mikolas and Matz is a plus. Any replacement is likely to do as well or better IMO. Easing the pressure on Walker and Scott by improving the team can only help them at worst. This team should add quality free agents to help and make the playoffs.

The Cardinals are trying to build an organizational future that isn't so dependent on luck.

And, no, if you have a consistently Top 5 farm system, basing your roster construction on the annual development of prospects isn't "luck."

The problem is you can't consistently keep a top 5 farm system. You're subject to the eccentricities of the draft. You draft good it helps you win, you win you get a worse draft position. This up and down process can be mitigated with good free agent signings but success will always leave you in a poorer draft position. You can hope for lightning from lower picks and supplement with free agents or you can put your eggs into losing and drafting high. We see the Pittsburghs and Miami's getting these high picks but it never seems to make them winners. I wonder why.

100% my opinion here.
Based on experiences.

There is less difference between players that don't have a MLB career
than the ones that have a solid career than we often acknowledge. Sometimes
it is what happens in a 30 day call up. The players that make AA and beyond all
have skills.
There are things inside a player that are difficult to measure. Just because a player

does not make it does not mean that they do not possess that quality. Sometimes it
just hasn't yet been optimized or "clicked". Most of us have experienced this.
We are fantastic at absolute measures, height, weight, speed, etc. Measuring those
internals not as good. That partially due to almost all these cats have had very little failure.
They are the best.

The idea is not to turn all these players into all-stars, it's just not a realistic outcome. It is
to create the best environment possible so a higher percentage reach their individual
pinnacle of a baseball player. Capturing just one or 2 of these players a season impacts a team.
Regardless of any top 5 ranking. Mitch and I are not in total agreement in some things.
But at this we are in total agreement. I totally embrace the Donovan, Edman, Jay, Schumakers, of
baseball. We really should be able to create a few more every 5-6 seasons though and also
help the elite reach their potential faster if by only a season.

[Ike Hammett]

For those anti trading Gray and entering a rebuild I have a question. What realistic moves would you have made this offseason to make the Cardinals serious World Series contenders in 2026?

Um, hire a Mozeliak type team that would win 90+ games, get into the playoffs and hopefully and maybe win some playoff series and get hot in October! Like ALWAYS! We arent even close to that now and what we are striving for because you suck!

[Ozziesfan41]

For those anti trading Gray and entering a rebuild I have a question. What realistic moves would you have made this offseason to make the Cardinals serious World Series contenders in 2026?

Um, hire a Mozeliak type team that would win 90+ games, get into the playoffs and hopefully and maybe win some playoff series and get hot in October! Like ALWAYS! We arent even close to that now and what we are striving for because you suck!

If you want a mo type you want the team to be mediocre for a long time lol

[dugoutrex]

we got our ACE!

[CCard]

If your numbers are right, they would need some luck to make the playoffs but it's possible. Add a little more and they make the playoffs probably. Once in the playoffs they have a chance to make a run. Teams can and have done that. Competitive teams draw more fans so not only does it lift a team but it actually lifts a teams bottom line. Losing doesn't do that. Losing Gray hurts. Losing Donovan hurts. But if they get top talent in return then not so much. Losing Mikolas and Matz is a plus. Any replacement is likely to do as well or better IMO. Easing the pressure on Walker and Scott by improving the team can only help them at worst. This team should add quality free agents to help and make the playoffs.

The Cardinals are trying to build an organizational future that isn't so dependent on luck.

And, no, if you have a consistently Top 5 farm system, basing your roster construction on the annual development of prospects isn't "luck."

The problem is you can't consistently keep a top 5 farm system. You're subject to the eccentricities of the draft. You draft good it helps you win, you win you get a worse draft position. This up and down process can be mitigated with good free agent signings but success will always leave you in a poorer draft position. You can hope for lightning from lower picks and supplement with free agents or you can put your eggs into losing and drafting high. We see the Pittsburghs and Miami's getting these high picks but it never seems to make them winners. I wonder why.

100% my opinion here.
Based on experiences.

There is less difference between players that don't have a MLB career
than the ones that have a solid career than we often acknowledge. Sometimes
it is what happens in a 30 day call up. The players that make AA and beyond all
have skills.
There are things inside a player that are difficult to measure. Just because a player

does not make it does not mean that they do not possess that quality. Sometimes it
just hasn't yet been optimized or "clicked". Most of us have experienced this.
We are fantastic at absolute measures, height, weight, speed, etc. Measuring those
internals not as good. That partially due to almost all these cats have had very little failure.
They are the best.

The idea is not to turn all these players into all-stars, it's just not a realistic outcome. It is
to create the best environment possible so a higher percentage reach their individual
pinnacle of a baseball player. Capturing just one or 2 of these players a season impacts a team.
Regardless of any top 5 ranking. Mitch and I are not in total agreement in some things.
But at this we are in total agreement. I totally embrace the Donovan, Edman, Jay, Schumakers, of
baseball. We really should be able to create a few more every 5-6 seasons though and also
help the elite reach their potential faster if by only a season.

But we have those players (until they're traded away or let go). It's not the quantity that the Cards lack, it's the quality. Still, you can get by with some average players if you have adequate to really good pitching. The pitching is what will turn this team around if it turns around. Most teams can scratch out a run or two but not 6 or 8 a night. Every team in MLB has a minor league system with some pieces in it. Most never reach stardom but just fill in. This team right now will struggle if they don't get some decent pitching, instead they're intent on signing cast offs and hoping for lightning in a bottle. Carpenters don't come around too often.

[mattmitchl44]

If your numbers are right, they would need some luck to make the playoffs but it's possible. Add a little more and they make the playoffs probably. Once in the playoffs they have a chance to make a run. Teams can and have done that. Competitive teams draw more fans so not only does it lift a team but it actually lifts a teams bottom line. Losing doesn't do that. Losing Gray hurts. Losing Donovan hurts. But if they get top talent in return then not so much. Losing Mikolas and Matz is a plus. Any replacement is likely to do as well or better IMO. Easing the pressure on Walker and Scott by improving the team can only help them at worst. This team should add quality free agents to help and make the playoffs.

The Cardinals are trying to build an organizational future that isn't so dependent on luck.

And, no, if you have a consistently Top 5 farm system, basing your roster construction on the annual development of prospects isn't "luck."

The problem is you can't consistently keep a top 5 farm system. You're subject to the eccentricities of the draft. You draft good it helps you win, you win you get a worse draft position. This up and down process can be mitigated with good free agent signings but success will always leave you in a poorer draft position. You can hope for lightning from lower picks and supplement with free agents or you can put your eggs into losing and drafting high. We see the Pittsburghs and Miami's getting these high picks but it never seems to make them winners. I wonder why.

You can consistently draft better than average. At every point that the Cardinals draft there are future major leaguers available to be drafted. The teams that do a better job of identifying and developing them (and international signings) will always have an advantage in their farm systems.

Because Pittsburgh and Miami have ~$100 million less in ML payroll than the Cardinals to put into:

1) aggressively locking up the players they do develop with lower cost, long term contracts and
2) selectively adding key FAs at the right time

[CCard]

If your numbers are right, they would need some luck to make the playoffs but it's possible. Add a little more and they make the playoffs probably. Once in the playoffs they have a chance to make a run. Teams can and have done that. Competitive teams draw more fans so not only does it lift a team but it actually lifts a teams bottom line. Losing doesn't do that. Losing Gray hurts. Losing Donovan hurts. But if they get top talent in return then not so much. Losing Mikolas and Matz is a plus. Any replacement is likely to do as well or better IMO. Easing the pressure on Walker and Scott by improving the team can only help them at worst. This team should add quality free agents to help and make the playoffs.

The Cardinals are trying to build an organizational future that isn't so dependent on luck.

And, no, if you have a consistently Top 5 farm system, basing your roster construction on the annual development of prospects isn't "luck."

The problem is you can't consistently keep a top 5 farm system. You're subject to the eccentricities of the draft. You draft good it helps you win, you win you get a worse draft position. This up and down process can be mitigated with good free agent signings but success will always leave you in a poorer draft position. You can hope for lightning from lower picks and supplement with free agents or you can put your eggs into losing and drafting high. We see the Pittsburghs and Miami's getting these high picks but it never seems to make them winners. I wonder why.

You can consistently draft better than average. At every point that the Cardinals draft there are future major leaguers available to be drafted. The teams that do a better job of identifying and developing them (and international signings) will always have an advantage in their farm systems.

Because Pittsburgh and Miami have ~$100 million less in ML payroll than the Cardinals to put into:

1) aggressively locking up the players they do develop with lower cost, long term contracts and
2) selectively adding key FAs at the right time

Not really. No one knows if a player will break out. The consistent winners use their minors as trading cards to land major talent. Occasionally a young stud filters through. Depending mostly on minor league talent is why the lesser teams constantly lose. When you stick someone like Siani into the lineup for 400-500 at bats it's always going to end bad. That's why he can't stick anywhere. My proposal is to not cut salary at all. Instead play your hand every single year. If you absolutely must trade away top talent (Gray), it's a must to get top talent that is very near major league ready. Why not compete every single year? There just isn't a good excuse not to.

[sikeston bulldog2]

If your numbers are right, they would need some luck to make the playoffs but it's possible. Add a little more and they make the playoffs probably. Once in the playoffs they have a chance to make a run. Teams can and have done that. Competitive teams draw more fans so not only does it lift a team but it actually lifts a teams bottom line. Losing doesn't do that. Losing Gray hurts. Losing Donovan hurts. But if they get top talent in return then not so much. Losing Mikolas and Matz is a plus. Any replacement is likely to do as well or better IMO. Easing the pressure on Walker and Scott by improving the team can only help them at worst. This team should add quality free agents to help and make the playoffs.

The Cardinals are trying to build an organizational future that isn't so dependent on luck.

And, no, if you have a consistently Top 5 farm system, basing your roster construction on the annual development of prospects isn't "luck."

The problem is you can't consistently keep a top 5 farm system. You're subject to the eccentricities of the draft. You draft good it helps you win, you win you get a worse draft position. This up and down process can be mitigated with good free agent signings but success will always leave you in a poorer draft position. You can hope for lightning from lower picks and supplement with free agents or you can put your eggs into losing and drafting high. We see the Pittsburghs and Miami's getting these high picks but it never seems to make them winners. I wonder why.

You can consistently draft better than average. At every point that the Cardinals draft there are future major leaguers available to be drafted. The teams that do a better job of identifying and developing them (and international signings) will always have an advantage in their farm systems.

Because Pittsburgh and Miami have ~$100 million less in ML payroll than the Cardinals to put into:

1) aggressively locking up the players they do develop with lower cost, long term contracts and
2) selectively adding key FAs at the right time

Not really. No one knows if a player will break out. The consistent winners use their minors as trading cards to land major talent. Occasionally a young stud filters through. Depending mostly on minor league talent is why the lesser teams constantly lose. When you stick someone like Siani into the lineup for 400-500 at bats it's always going to end bad. That's why he can't stick anywhere. My proposal is to not cut salary at all. Instead play your hand every single year. If you absolutely must trade away top talent (Gray), it's a must to get top talent that is very near major league ready. Why not compete every single year? There just isn't a good excuse not to.

I’ve long assumed the talent level from team to team is negligible, with the exception of the 2-3 bought teams. My thought is manager, org environment, injuries, off years, break out years, all have an impact on a successful season.

Therefore to contend yearly works under your model if any of my thinking is right.

[CCard]

If your numbers are right, they would need some luck to make the playoffs but it's possible. Add a little more and they make the playoffs probably. Once in the playoffs they have a chance to make a run. Teams can and have done that. Competitive teams draw more fans so not only does it lift a team but it actually lifts a teams bottom line. Losing doesn't do that. Losing Gray hurts. Losing Donovan hurts. But if they get top talent in return then not so much. Losing Mikolas and Matz is a plus. Any replacement is likely to do as well or better IMO. Easing the pressure on Walker and Scott by improving the team can only help them at worst. This team should add quality free agents to help and make the playoffs.

The Cardinals are trying to build an organizational future that isn't so dependent on luck.

And, no, if you have a consistently Top 5 farm system, basing your roster construction on the annual development of prospects isn't "luck."

The problem is you can't consistently keep a top 5 farm system. You're subject to the eccentricities of the draft. You draft good it helps you win, you win you get a worse draft position. This up and down process can be mitigated with good free agent signings but success will always leave you in a poorer draft position. You can hope for lightning from lower picks and supplement with free agents or you can put your eggs into losing and drafting high. We see the Pittsburghs and Miami's getting these high picks but it never seems to make them winners. I wonder why.

You can consistently draft better than average. At every point that the Cardinals draft there are future major leaguers available to be drafted. The teams that do a better job of identifying and developing them (and international signings) will always have an advantage in their farm systems.

Because Pittsburgh and Miami have ~$100 million less in ML payroll than the Cardinals to put into:

1) aggressively locking up the players they do develop with lower cost, long term contracts and
2) selectively adding key FAs at the right time

Not really. No one knows if a player will break out. The consistent winners use their minors as trading cards to land major talent. Occasionally a young stud filters through. Depending mostly on minor league talent is why the lesser teams constantly lose. When you stick someone like Siani into the lineup for 400-500 at bats it's always going to end bad. That's why he can't stick anywhere. My proposal is to not cut salary at all. Instead play your hand every single year. If you absolutely must trade away top talent (Gray), it's a must to get top talent that is very near major league ready. Why not compete every single year? There just isn't a good excuse not to.

I’ve long assumed the talent level from team to team is negligible, with the exception of the 2-3 bought teams. My thought is manager, org environment, injuries, off years, break out years, all have an impact on a successful season.

Therefore to contend yearly works under your model if any of my thinking is right.

I just know that ball teams are in the entertainment business. If you aren't planning on entertaining fans with a decent product, then you're the comic relief like the team that faces the Harlem Globetrotters. You're either trying to win or your not.

[sikeston bulldog2]

If your numbers are right, they would need some luck to make the playoffs but it's possible. Add a little more and they make the playoffs probably. Once in the playoffs they have a chance to make a run. Teams can and have done that. Competitive teams draw more fans so not only does it lift a team but it actually lifts a teams bottom line. Losing doesn't do that. Losing Gray hurts. Losing Donovan hurts. But if they get top talent in return then not so much. Losing Mikolas and Matz is a plus. Any replacement is likely to do as well or better IMO. Easing the pressure on Walker and Scott by improving the team can only help them at worst. This team should add quality free agents to help and make the playoffs.

The Cardinals are trying to build an organizational future that isn't so dependent on luck.

And, no, if you have a consistently Top 5 farm system, basing your roster construction on the annual development of prospects isn't "luck."

The problem is you can't consistently keep a top 5 farm system. You're subject to the eccentricities of the draft. You draft good it helps you win, you win you get a worse draft position. This up and down process can be mitigated with good free agent signings but success will always leave you in a poorer draft position. You can hope for lightning from lower picks and supplement with free agents or you can put your eggs into losing and drafting high. We see the Pittsburghs and Miami's getting these high picks but it never seems to make them winners. I wonder why.

You can consistently draft better than average. At every point that the Cardinals draft there are future major leaguers available to be drafted. The teams that do a better job of identifying and developing them (and international signings) will always have an advantage in their farm systems.

Because Pittsburgh and Miami have ~$100 million less in ML payroll than the Cardinals to put into:

1) aggressively locking up the players they do develop with lower cost, long term contracts and
2) selectively adding key FAs at the right time

Not really. No one knows if a player will break out. The consistent winners use their minors as trading cards to land major talent. Occasionally a young stud filters through. Depending mostly on minor league talent is why the lesser teams constantly lose. When you stick someone like Siani into the lineup for 400-500 at bats it's always going to end bad. That's why he can't stick anywhere. My proposal is to not cut salary at all. Instead play your hand every single year. If you absolutely must trade away top talent (Gray), it's a must to get top talent that is very near major league ready. Why not compete every single year? There just isn't a good excuse not to.

I’ve long assumed the talent level from team to team is negligible, with the exception of the 2-3 bought teams. My thought is manager, org environment, injuries, off years, break out years, all have an impact on a successful season.

Therefore to contend yearly works under your model if any of my thinking is right.

I just know that ball teams are in the entertainment business. If you aren't planning on entertaining fans with a decent product, then you're the comic relief like the team that faces the Harlem Globetrotters. You're either trying to win or your not.

Where I see friction is, as mentioned, the talent level of all 30 teams is such, that from day to day, week to week, any team can compete.

I see your compete or not stand. I think in just those simplest of terms, other variables may have greater effect.

[renostl]

If your numbers are right, they would need some luck to make the playoffs but it's possible. Add a little more and they make the playoffs probably. Once in the playoffs they have a chance to make a run. Teams can and have done that. Competitive teams draw more fans so not only does it lift a team but it actually lifts a teams bottom line. Losing doesn't do that. Losing Gray hurts. Losing Donovan hurts. But if they get top talent in return then not so much. Losing Mikolas and Matz is a plus. Any replacement is likely to do as well or better IMO. Easing the pressure on Walker and Scott by improving the team can only help them at worst. This team should add quality free agents to help and make the playoffs.

The Cardinals are trying to build an organizational future that isn't so dependent on luck.

And, no, if you have a consistently Top 5 farm system, basing your roster construction on the annual development of prospects isn't "luck."

The problem is you can't consistently keep a top 5 farm system. You're subject to the eccentricities of the draft. You draft good it helps you win, you win you get a worse draft position. This up and down process can be mitigated with good free agent signings but success will always leave you in a poorer draft position. You can hope for lightning from lower picks and supplement with free agents or you can put your eggs into losing and drafting high. We see the Pittsburghs and Miami's getting these high picks but it never seems to make them winners. I wonder why.

100% my opinion here.
Based on experiences.

There is less difference between players that don't have a MLB career
than the ones that have a solid career than we often acknowledge. Sometimes
it is what happens in a 30 day call up. The players that make AA and beyond all
have skills.
There are things inside a player that are difficult to measure. Just because a player

does not make it does not mean that they do not possess that quality. Sometimes it
just hasn't yet been optimized or "clicked". Most of us have experienced this.
We are fantastic at absolute measures, height, weight, speed, etc. Measuring those
internals not as good. That partially due to almost all these cats have had very little failure.
They are the best.

The idea is not to turn all these players into all-stars, it's just not a realistic outcome. It is
to create the best environment possible so a higher percentage reach their individual
pinnacle of a baseball player. Capturing just one or 2 of these players a season impacts a team.
Regardless of any top 5 ranking. Mitch and I are not in total agreement in some things.
But at this we are in total agreement. I totally embrace the Donovan, Edman, Jay, Schumakers, of
baseball. We really should be able to create a few more every 5-6 seasons though and also
help the elite reach their potential faster if by only a season.

But we have those players (until they're traded away or let go). It's not the quantity that the Cards lack, it's the quality. Still, you can get by with some average players if you have adequate to really good pitching. The pitching is what will turn this team around if it turns around. Most teams can scratch out a run or two but not 6 or 8 a night. Every team in MLB has a minor league system with some pieces in it. Most never reach stardom but just fill in. This team right now will struggle if they don't get some decent pitching, instead they're intent on signing cast offs and hoping for lightning in a bottle. Carpenters don't come around too often.

Only if you think 3-4 WAR players are a dime a dozen.
The Cardinals will definitely be better with elite. Nobody is saying otherwise. I think it was mentioned to attempt to develop them faster. Never have I proclaimed winning happen by only a homegrown team. It doesn't happen.
Seattle with all that pitching, in a pitchers park finally broke through, finally. They had how many homegrown position players and still added at the TD. They are imo, in real danger of regression if they go cheap and they likely will. Too timid to spend either in prospects or money. Players had career years.

The NYY got blessed with their version of Pujols. Multiple additions and they continue to need to add.
Winning doesn't have a single recipe. For sustainability as division favorites. The system has to provide players and use every method to obtain them.