Galatians221jb1 wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 18:21 pm
Only minor concern I have is that like lefty hitters we are loaded with lefty pitchers. Cameron is a lefty, Doyle will hopefully be up soon then add Libby and our other top prospect pitchers and we don’t seem to have much from the right side. Maybe that’s a good thing?
Could be. They could also trade the excess for positions of need
I forgot that Mo is gone and we now hopefully will be able to ascertain who to trade and who to
Keep.
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 18:00 pm
FG's last write up on Cameron:
Cameron was drafted in the seventh round of the 2021 draft out of Central Arkansas not long after he had a Tommy John surgery. He had an encouraging 2023, his first full season, despite a 5.28 ERA, as he posted strong peripherals across 107.1 innings (28.3% K%, 7.5% BB%) and reached Double-A. His 2024 and early-2025 performance have been practically identical. Cameron worked 128.2 innings in 2024, and during the second half of the season was stretched out to six or seven innings per outing. This year, he made seven good Triple-A starts and was promoted to the bigs. His delivery is effortless and repeatable, and Cameron commands all four of his pitches, giving him an incredibly high floor as a prospect because he has basically no relief risk.
His best pitch is a changeup in the 80-84 mph range. It’s uncommon for pitchers with Cameron’s nearly perfect vertical arm slot to be able to turn over a changeup from this position, let alone a plus one, but even as he has climbed into the upper levels of the minors, this pitch has been generating plus miss. It succeeds more because of Cameron’s ability to locate it than its pure movement, and it’s also aided by how long he hides the baseball, and how loose and free his arm action is. The vertical nature of Cameron’s arm stroke creates backspinning ride on his fastball. It isn’t a speedy offering — it sits about 92 mph and will peak around 96 — but, again, deception and command season its effectiveness. The combination of his below-average velo and a top-of-the-zone approach to fastball location has made Cameron homer-prone for stretches in the minors, especially in 2023, when he allowed 19 bombs in 107.1 innings, and again so far this year. Seemingly in response to this, he’s upped his cutter usage in 2025, more as a way to stay off barrels than to miss bats.
Cameron also has an 80-84 mph 12-to-6 curveball, the shape of which mirrors that of his fastball. He will manipulate its direction somewhat against lefties to give it a little more of a slider look. The depth of his curveball and the quality of his changeup gives Cameron two ways to tilt with righties and generate whiffs. Against lefties, he becomes heavily reliant on his fastball. This guy is a very stable rotation piece with two plus attributes and two average ones. Though he lacks star-level stuff, Cameron is a stable, polished no. 4 starter prospect.
2.99 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in across 140 innings in his first year might suggest he could exceed the #4 starter expectation.
He had a BABIP of .241, which was almost .050 below league average. Probably not sustainable given that, of the 663 pitchers who have thrown at least 1000 ML innings since 1969, that would tie him for 2nd best in BABIP.
He also had 84.0% of his runners left on base, vs. a ML average of just 72.3%. And that 84.0% would be the best (by a wide margin since 2nd is Mariano Rivera at 80.4%) of those 663 pitchers since 1969.
So, yeah, a lot of fluky good "luck" in his results last year.
I'm not really excited about trading Donovan to the Royals, or the Guardians. I'm hoping a deal lines up with teams that have players I like better than the ones being mentioned. I would be more open to trading Burleson, or Nootbaar to those teams. Either one could use them.
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 18:00 pm
FG's last write up on Cameron:
Cameron was drafted in the seventh round of the 2021 draft out of Central Arkansas not long after he had a Tommy John surgery. He had an encouraging 2023, his first full season, despite a 5.28 ERA, as he posted strong peripherals across 107.1 innings (28.3% K%, 7.5% BB%) and reached Double-A. His 2024 and early-2025 performance have been practically identical. Cameron worked 128.2 innings in 2024, and during the second half of the season was stretched out to six or seven innings per outing. This year, he made seven good Triple-A starts and was promoted to the bigs. His delivery is effortless and repeatable, and Cameron commands all four of his pitches, giving him an incredibly high floor as a prospect because he has basically no relief risk.
His best pitch is a changeup in the 80-84 mph range. It’s uncommon for pitchers with Cameron’s nearly perfect vertical arm slot to be able to turn over a changeup from this position, let alone a plus one, but even as he has climbed into the upper levels of the minors, this pitch has been generating plus miss. It succeeds more because of Cameron’s ability to locate it than its pure movement, and it’s also aided by how long he hides the baseball, and how loose and free his arm action is. The vertical nature of Cameron’s arm stroke creates backspinning ride on his fastball. It isn’t a speedy offering — it sits about 92 mph and will peak around 96 — but, again, deception and command season its effectiveness. The combination of his below-average velo and a top-of-the-zone approach to fastball location has made Cameron homer-prone for stretches in the minors, especially in 2023, when he allowed 19 bombs in 107.1 innings, and again so far this year. Seemingly in response to this, he’s upped his cutter usage in 2025, more as a way to stay off barrels than to miss bats.
Cameron also has an 80-84 mph 12-to-6 curveball, the shape of which mirrors that of his fastball. He will manipulate its direction somewhat against lefties to give it a little more of a slider look. The depth of his curveball and the quality of his changeup gives Cameron two ways to tilt with righties and generate whiffs. Against lefties, he becomes heavily reliant on his fastball. This guy is a very stable rotation piece with two plus attributes and two average ones. Though he lacks star-level stuff, Cameron is a stable, polished no. 4 starter prospect.
2.99 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in across 140 innings in his first year might suggest he could exceed the #4 starter expectation.
He had a BABIP of .241, which was almost .050 below league average. Probably not sustainable given that, of the 663 pitchers who have thrown at least 1000 ML innings since 1969, that would tie him for 2nd best in BABIP.
He also had 84.0% of his runners left on base, vs. a ML average of just 72.3%. And that 84.0% would be the best (by a wide margin since 2nd is Mariano Rivera at 80.4%) of those 663 pitchers since 1969.
So, yeah, a lot of fluky good "luck" in his results last year.
#Regressiontothemean
When I see stuff like this, I get scared that Bloom is going to pass up a guy with success in MLB in favor of a couple of prospects with really good Adjusted ASDF+/FARTs numbers.
And then in three years, the geeks are going to be like: "Oh yeah, everybody knew FARTs was a terrible metric."
Galatians221jb1 wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 18:21 pm
Only minor concern I have is that like lefty hitters we are loaded with lefty pitchers. Cameron is a lefty, Doyle will hopefully be up soon then add Libby and our other top prospect pitchers and we don’t seem to have much from the right side. Maybe that’s a good thing?
Could be. They could also trade the excess for positions of need
I forgot that Mo is gone and we now hopefully will be able to ascertain who to trade and who to
Keep.
Hallelujah
That putz would sit around with his thumb up his (donkey) all winter. Laziest man in baseball.
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 18:00 pm
FG's last write up on Cameron:
Cameron was drafted in the seventh round of the 2021 draft out of Central Arkansas not long after he had a Tommy John surgery. He had an encouraging 2023, his first full season, despite a 5.28 ERA, as he posted strong peripherals across 107.1 innings (28.3% K%, 7.5% BB%) and reached Double-A. His 2024 and early-2025 performance have been practically identical. Cameron worked 128.2 innings in 2024, and during the second half of the season was stretched out to six or seven innings per outing. This year, he made seven good Triple-A starts and was promoted to the bigs. His delivery is effortless and repeatable, and Cameron commands all four of his pitches, giving him an incredibly high floor as a prospect because he has basically no relief risk.
His best pitch is a changeup in the 80-84 mph range. It’s uncommon for pitchers with Cameron’s nearly perfect vertical arm slot to be able to turn over a changeup from this position, let alone a plus one, but even as he has climbed into the upper levels of the minors, this pitch has been generating plus miss. It succeeds more because of Cameron’s ability to locate it than its pure movement, and it’s also aided by how long he hides the baseball, and how loose and free his arm action is. The vertical nature of Cameron’s arm stroke creates backspinning ride on his fastball. It isn’t a speedy offering — it sits about 92 mph and will peak around 96 — but, again, deception and command season its effectiveness. The combination of his below-average velo and a top-of-the-zone approach to fastball location has made Cameron homer-prone for stretches in the minors, especially in 2023, when he allowed 19 bombs in 107.1 innings, and again so far this year. Seemingly in response to this, he’s upped his cutter usage in 2025, more as a way to stay off barrels than to miss bats.
Cameron also has an 80-84 mph 12-to-6 curveball, the shape of which mirrors that of his fastball. He will manipulate its direction somewhat against lefties to give it a little more of a slider look. The depth of his curveball and the quality of his changeup gives Cameron two ways to tilt with righties and generate whiffs. Against lefties, he becomes heavily reliant on his fastball. This guy is a very stable rotation piece with two plus attributes and two average ones. Though he lacks star-level stuff, Cameron is a stable, polished no. 4 starter prospect.
2.99 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in across 140 innings in his first year might suggest he could exceed the #4 starter expectation.
He had a BABIP of .241, which was almost .050 below league average. Probably not sustainable given that, of the 663 pitchers who have thrown at least 1000 ML innings since 1969, that would tie him for 2nd best in BABIP.
He also had 84.0% of his runners left on base, vs. a ML average of just 72.3%. And that 84.0% would be the best (by a wide margin since 2nd is Mariano Rivera at 80.4%) of those 663 pitchers since 1969.
So, yeah, a lot of fluky good "luck" in his results last year.
#Regressiontothemean
Maybe he’s a bit more deceptive and while lacking overpowering stuff still tough to square up? Better control than power? That could help him overachieve, so to speak, when it comes to certain metrics. If indicators were the be all end all, why even have GMs or scouts?
Not saying they aren’t relevant, just saying that maybe not all metrics apply equally to every player. Maybe he’ll end up being fool’s gold, but as of now, his actual performance and production can’t be taken away or overshadowed by potential indicators.
Not that the indicators should be completely ignored, but the fact his BTV is reasonably close to Donovan’s tells me there is a lot to like too.
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 18:00 pm
FG's last write up on Cameron:
Cameron was drafted in the seventh round of the 2021 draft out of Central Arkansas not long after he had a Tommy John surgery. He had an encouraging 2023, his first full season, despite a 5.28 ERA, as he posted strong peripherals across 107.1 innings (28.3% K%, 7.5% BB%) and reached Double-A. His 2024 and early-2025 performance have been practically identical. Cameron worked 128.2 innings in 2024, and during the second half of the season was stretched out to six or seven innings per outing. This year, he made seven good Triple-A starts and was promoted to the bigs. His delivery is effortless and repeatable, and Cameron commands all four of his pitches, giving him an incredibly high floor as a prospect because he has basically no relief risk.
His best pitch is a changeup in the 80-84 mph range. It’s uncommon for pitchers with Cameron’s nearly perfect vertical arm slot to be able to turn over a changeup from this position, let alone a plus one, but even as he has climbed into the upper levels of the minors, this pitch has been generating plus miss. It succeeds more because of Cameron’s ability to locate it than its pure movement, and it’s also aided by how long he hides the baseball, and how loose and free his arm action is. The vertical nature of Cameron’s arm stroke creates backspinning ride on his fastball. It isn’t a speedy offering — it sits about 92 mph and will peak around 96 — but, again, deception and command season its effectiveness. The combination of his below-average velo and a top-of-the-zone approach to fastball location has made Cameron homer-prone for stretches in the minors, especially in 2023, when he allowed 19 bombs in 107.1 innings, and again so far this year. Seemingly in response to this, he’s upped his cutter usage in 2025, more as a way to stay off barrels than to miss bats.
Cameron also has an 80-84 mph 12-to-6 curveball, the shape of which mirrors that of his fastball. He will manipulate its direction somewhat against lefties to give it a little more of a slider look. The depth of his curveball and the quality of his changeup gives Cameron two ways to tilt with righties and generate whiffs. Against lefties, he becomes heavily reliant on his fastball. This guy is a very stable rotation piece with two plus attributes and two average ones. Though he lacks star-level stuff, Cameron is a stable, polished no. 4 starter prospect.
2.99 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in across 140 innings in his first year might suggest he could exceed the #4 starter expectation.
He had a BABIP of .241, which was almost .050 below league average. Probably not sustainable given that, of the 663 pitchers who have thrown at least 1000 ML innings since 1969, that would tie him for 2nd best in BABIP.
He also had 84.0% of his runners left on base, vs. a ML average of just 72.3%. And that 84.0% would be the best (by a wide margin since 2nd is Mariano Rivera at 80.4%) of those 663 pitchers since 1969.
So, yeah, a lot of fluky good "luck" in his results last year.
#Regressiontothemean
Maybe he’s a bit more deceptive and while lacking overpowering stuff still tough to square up? That could help him overachieve, so to speak, when it comes to certain metrics. If indicators were the be all end all, why even have GMs or scouts?
Not saying they aren’t relevant, just saying that maybe not all metrics apply equally to every player. Maybe he’ll end up being fool’s gold, but as of now, his actual performance and production can’t be taken away or overshadowed by potential indicators.
Not that the indicators should be completely ignored, but the fact his BTV is reasonably close to Donovan’s tells me there is a lot to like too.
Cameron's BTV has gone up 10 pts in the past month due to the demand for pitchers and having nothing to do with his performance.
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 18:00 pm
FG's last write up on Cameron:
Cameron was drafted in the seventh round of the 2021 draft out of Central Arkansas not long after he had a Tommy John surgery. He had an encouraging 2023, his first full season, despite a 5.28 ERA, as he posted strong peripherals across 107.1 innings (28.3% K%, 7.5% BB%) and reached Double-A. His 2024 and early-2025 performance have been practically identical. Cameron worked 128.2 innings in 2024, and during the second half of the season was stretched out to six or seven innings per outing. This year, he made seven good Triple-A starts and was promoted to the bigs. His delivery is effortless and repeatable, and Cameron commands all four of his pitches, giving him an incredibly high floor as a prospect because he has basically no relief risk.
His best pitch is a changeup in the 80-84 mph range. It’s uncommon for pitchers with Cameron’s nearly perfect vertical arm slot to be able to turn over a changeup from this position, let alone a plus one, but even as he has climbed into the upper levels of the minors, this pitch has been generating plus miss. It succeeds more because of Cameron’s ability to locate it than its pure movement, and it’s also aided by how long he hides the baseball, and how loose and free his arm action is. The vertical nature of Cameron’s arm stroke creates backspinning ride on his fastball. It isn’t a speedy offering — it sits about 92 mph and will peak around 96 — but, again, deception and command season its effectiveness. The combination of his below-average velo and a top-of-the-zone approach to fastball location has made Cameron homer-prone for stretches in the minors, especially in 2023, when he allowed 19 bombs in 107.1 innings, and again so far this year. Seemingly in response to this, he’s upped his cutter usage in 2025, more as a way to stay off barrels than to miss bats.
Cameron also has an 80-84 mph 12-to-6 curveball, the shape of which mirrors that of his fastball. He will manipulate its direction somewhat against lefties to give it a little more of a slider look. The depth of his curveball and the quality of his changeup gives Cameron two ways to tilt with righties and generate whiffs. Against lefties, he becomes heavily reliant on his fastball. This guy is a very stable rotation piece with two plus attributes and two average ones. Though he lacks star-level stuff, Cameron is a stable, polished no. 4 starter prospect.
2.99 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in across 140 innings in his first year might suggest he could exceed the #4 starter expectation.
He had a BABIP of .241, which was almost .050 below league average. Probably not sustainable given that, of the 663 pitchers who have thrown at least 1000 ML innings since 1969, that would tie him for 2nd best in BABIP.
He also had 84.0% of his runners left on base, vs. a ML average of just 72.3%. And that 84.0% would be the best (by a wide margin since 2nd is Mariano Rivera at 80.4%) of those 663 pitchers since 1969.
So, yeah, a lot of fluky good "luck" in his results last year.
#Regressiontothemean
Maybe he’s a bit more deceptive and while lacking overpowering stuff still tough to square up? That could help him overachieve, so to speak, when it comes to certain metrics. If indicators were the be all end all, why even have GMs or scouts?
Not saying they aren’t relevant, just saying that maybe not all metrics apply equally to every player. Maybe he’ll end up being fool’s gold, but as of now, his actual performance and production can’t be taken away or overshadowed by potential indicators.
Not that the indicators should be completely ignored, but the fact his BTV is reasonably close to Donovan’s tells me there is a lot to like too.
Cameron's BTV has gone up 10 pts in the past month due to the demand for pitchers and having nothing to do with his performance.
Then maybe it’s a [shirt] indicator if it’s always in flux.
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 18:00 pm
FG's last write up on Cameron:
Cameron was drafted in the seventh round of the 2021 draft out of Central Arkansas not long after he had a Tommy John surgery. He had an encouraging 2023, his first full season, despite a 5.28 ERA, as he posted strong peripherals across 107.1 innings (28.3% K%, 7.5% BB%) and reached Double-A. His 2024 and early-2025 performance have been practically identical. Cameron worked 128.2 innings in 2024, and during the second half of the season was stretched out to six or seven innings per outing. This year, he made seven good Triple-A starts and was promoted to the bigs. His delivery is effortless and repeatable, and Cameron commands all four of his pitches, giving him an incredibly high floor as a prospect because he has basically no relief risk.
His best pitch is a changeup in the 80-84 mph range. It’s uncommon for pitchers with Cameron’s nearly perfect vertical arm slot to be able to turn over a changeup from this position, let alone a plus one, but even as he has climbed into the upper levels of the minors, this pitch has been generating plus miss. It succeeds more because of Cameron’s ability to locate it than its pure movement, and it’s also aided by how long he hides the baseball, and how loose and free his arm action is. The vertical nature of Cameron’s arm stroke creates backspinning ride on his fastball. It isn’t a speedy offering — it sits about 92 mph and will peak around 96 — but, again, deception and command season its effectiveness. The combination of his below-average velo and a top-of-the-zone approach to fastball location has made Cameron homer-prone for stretches in the minors, especially in 2023, when he allowed 19 bombs in 107.1 innings, and again so far this year. Seemingly in response to this, he’s upped his cutter usage in 2025, more as a way to stay off barrels than to miss bats.
Cameron also has an 80-84 mph 12-to-6 curveball, the shape of which mirrors that of his fastball. He will manipulate its direction somewhat against lefties to give it a little more of a slider look. The depth of his curveball and the quality of his changeup gives Cameron two ways to tilt with righties and generate whiffs. Against lefties, he becomes heavily reliant on his fastball. This guy is a very stable rotation piece with two plus attributes and two average ones. Though he lacks star-level stuff, Cameron is a stable, polished no. 4 starter prospect.
2.99 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in across 140 innings in his first year might suggest he could exceed the #4 starter expectation.
He had a BABIP of .241, which was almost .050 below league average. Probably not sustainable given that, of the 663 pitchers who have thrown at least 1000 ML innings since 1969, that would tie him for 2nd best in BABIP.
He also had 84.0% of his runners left on base, vs. a ML average of just 72.3%. And that 84.0% would be the best (by a wide margin since 2nd is Mariano Rivera at 80.4%) of those 663 pitchers since 1969.
So, yeah, a lot of fluky good "luck" in his results last year.
#Regressiontothemean
Maybe he’s a bit more deceptive and while lacking overpowering stuff still tough to square up? That could help him overachieve, so to speak, when it comes to certain metrics. If indicators were the be all end all, why even have GMs or scouts?
Not saying they aren’t relevant, just saying that maybe not all metrics apply equally to every player. Maybe he’ll end up being fool’s gold, but as of now, his actual performance and production can’t be taken away or overshadowed by potential indicators.
Not that the indicators should be completely ignored, but the fact his BTV is reasonably close to Donovan’s tells me there is a lot to like too.
Cameron's BTV has gone up 10 pts in the past month due to the demand for pitchers and having nothing to do with his performance.
Then maybe it’s a [shirt] indicator if it’s always in flux.
kyace wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 19:24 pm
Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.
Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.
You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.
Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 18:00 pm
FG's last write up on Cameron:
Cameron was drafted in the seventh round of the 2021 draft out of Central Arkansas not long after he had a Tommy John surgery. He had an encouraging 2023, his first full season, despite a 5.28 ERA, as he posted strong peripherals across 107.1 innings (28.3% K%, 7.5% BB%) and reached Double-A. His 2024 and early-2025 performance have been practically identical. Cameron worked 128.2 innings in 2024, and during the second half of the season was stretched out to six or seven innings per outing. This year, he made seven good Triple-A starts and was promoted to the bigs. His delivery is effortless and repeatable, and Cameron commands all four of his pitches, giving him an incredibly high floor as a prospect because he has basically no relief risk.
His best pitch is a changeup in the 80-84 mph range. It’s uncommon for pitchers with Cameron’s nearly perfect vertical arm slot to be able to turn over a changeup from this position, let alone a plus one, but even as he has climbed into the upper levels of the minors, this pitch has been generating plus miss. It succeeds more because of Cameron’s ability to locate it than its pure movement, and it’s also aided by how long he hides the baseball, and how loose and free his arm action is. The vertical nature of Cameron’s arm stroke creates backspinning ride on his fastball. It isn’t a speedy offering — it sits about 92 mph and will peak around 96 — but, again, deception and command season its effectiveness. The combination of his below-average velo and a top-of-the-zone approach to fastball location has made Cameron homer-prone for stretches in the minors, especially in 2023, when he allowed 19 bombs in 107.1 innings, and again so far this year. Seemingly in response to this, he’s upped his cutter usage in 2025, more as a way to stay off barrels than to miss bats.
Cameron also has an 80-84 mph 12-to-6 curveball, the shape of which mirrors that of his fastball. He will manipulate its direction somewhat against lefties to give it a little more of a slider look. The depth of his curveball and the quality of his changeup gives Cameron two ways to tilt with righties and generate whiffs. Against lefties, he becomes heavily reliant on his fastball. This guy is a very stable rotation piece with two plus attributes and two average ones. Though he lacks star-level stuff, Cameron is a stable, polished no. 4 starter prospect.
2.99 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in across 140 innings in his first year might suggest he could exceed the #4 starter expectation.
He had a BABIP of .241, which was almost .050 below league average. Probably not sustainable given that, of the 663 pitchers who have thrown at least 1000 ML innings since 1969, that would tie him for 2nd best in BABIP.
He also had 84.0% of his runners left on base, vs. a ML average of just 72.3%. And that 84.0% would be the best (by a wide margin since 2nd is Mariano Rivera at 80.4%) of those 663 pitchers since 1969.
So, yeah, a lot of fluky good "luck" in his results last year.
#Regressiontothemean
Maybe he’s a bit more deceptive and while lacking overpowering stuff still tough to square up? That could help him overachieve, so to speak, when it comes to certain metrics. If indicators were the be all end all, why even have GMs or scouts?
Not saying they aren’t relevant, just saying that maybe not all metrics apply equally to every player. Maybe he’ll end up being fool’s gold, but as of now, his actual performance and production can’t be taken away or overshadowed by potential indicators.
Not that the indicators should be completely ignored, but the fact his BTV is reasonably close to Donovan’s tells me there is a lot to like too.
Cameron's BTV has gone up 10 pts in the past month due to the demand for pitchers and having nothing to do with his performance.
Then maybe it’s a [shirt] indicator if it’s always in flux.
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 18:00 pm
FG's last write up on Cameron:
Cameron was drafted in the seventh round of the 2021 draft out of Central Arkansas not long after he had a Tommy John surgery. He had an encouraging 2023, his first full season, despite a 5.28 ERA, as he posted strong peripherals across 107.1 innings (28.3% K%, 7.5% BB%) and reached Double-A. His 2024 and early-2025 performance have been practically identical. Cameron worked 128.2 innings in 2024, and during the second half of the season was stretched out to six or seven innings per outing. This year, he made seven good Triple-A starts and was promoted to the bigs. His delivery is effortless and repeatable, and Cameron commands all four of his pitches, giving him an incredibly high floor as a prospect because he has basically no relief risk.
His best pitch is a changeup in the 80-84 mph range. It’s uncommon for pitchers with Cameron’s nearly perfect vertical arm slot to be able to turn over a changeup from this position, let alone a plus one, but even as he has climbed into the upper levels of the minors, this pitch has been generating plus miss. It succeeds more because of Cameron’s ability to locate it than its pure movement, and it’s also aided by how long he hides the baseball, and how loose and free his arm action is. The vertical nature of Cameron’s arm stroke creates backspinning ride on his fastball. It isn’t a speedy offering — it sits about 92 mph and will peak around 96 — but, again, deception and command season its effectiveness. The combination of his below-average velo and a top-of-the-zone approach to fastball location has made Cameron homer-prone for stretches in the minors, especially in 2023, when he allowed 19 bombs in 107.1 innings, and again so far this year. Seemingly in response to this, he’s upped his cutter usage in 2025, more as a way to stay off barrels than to miss bats.
Cameron also has an 80-84 mph 12-to-6 curveball, the shape of which mirrors that of his fastball. He will manipulate its direction somewhat against lefties to give it a little more of a slider look. The depth of his curveball and the quality of his changeup gives Cameron two ways to tilt with righties and generate whiffs. Against lefties, he becomes heavily reliant on his fastball. This guy is a very stable rotation piece with two plus attributes and two average ones. Though he lacks star-level stuff, Cameron is a stable, polished no. 4 starter prospect.
2.99 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in across 140 innings in his first year might suggest he could exceed the #4 starter expectation.
He had a BABIP of .241, which was almost .050 below league average. Probably not sustainable given that, of the 663 pitchers who have thrown at least 1000 ML innings since 1969, that would tie him for 2nd best in BABIP.
He also had 84.0% of his runners left on base, vs. a ML average of just 72.3%. And that 84.0% would be the best (by a wide margin since 2nd is Mariano Rivera at 80.4%) of those 663 pitchers since 1969.
So, yeah, a lot of fluky good "luck" in his results last year.
#Regressiontothemean
Maybe he’s a bit more deceptive and while lacking overpowering stuff still tough to square up? That could help him overachieve, so to speak, when it comes to certain metrics. If indicators were the be all end all, why even have GMs or scouts?
Not saying they aren’t relevant, just saying that maybe not all metrics apply equally to every player. Maybe he’ll end up being fool’s gold, but as of now, his actual performance and production can’t be taken away or overshadowed by potential indicators.
Not that the indicators should be completely ignored, but the fact his BTV is reasonably close to Donovan’s tells me there is a lot to like too.
Cameron's BTV has gone up 10 pts in the past month due to the demand for pitchers and having nothing to do with his performance.
Then maybe it’s a [shirt] indicator if it’s always in flux.
It's a point of reference, it's not the gospel.
Then why’d you bring it up?
Umm, because the previous post did. That aside, I do use it as a point of reference.
And Cameron is actually 3 months older than Liberatore.
I'd like a lot more upside than a FV 45 guy who projects as basically a #4 SP for six years of team control.
BTV has Cameron +26 vs. Donovan +32, and if there is a bidding war for Donovan I'd expect the Cardinals to extract somewhat more than his value, not less.
Two young veterans who have gone through the growing pains from adjusting to MLB, have proven they belong, and also still have time, talent, and room for improvement seems like that good foundation you’ve been talking about, at least as far as the rotation is concerned. And we don’t have to wait 5 years for any payoff. Maybe they wouldn’t make up the front end but possibly a very solid middle.
Add Doyle and a solid veteran and that leaves just enough room for Matthews or another good prospect to break in by earning it.
Very solid points. Puts the rotation in a position
of moving forward and building vs chasing to fill spots.
If anybody takes that next step a rotation is becoming in view.
Exactly. It provides competition, some stability, and forms the foundation for a young, mostly cost controlled, and not completely inexperienced rotation that could project for several years.
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 18:00 pm
FG's last write up on Cameron:
Cameron was drafted in the seventh round of the 2021 draft out of Central Arkansas not long after he had a Tommy John surgery. He had an encouraging 2023, his first full season, despite a 5.28 ERA, as he posted strong peripherals across 107.1 innings (28.3% K%, 7.5% BB%) and reached Double-A. His 2024 and early-2025 performance have been practically identical. Cameron worked 128.2 innings in 2024, and during the second half of the season was stretched out to six or seven innings per outing. This year, he made seven good Triple-A starts and was promoted to the bigs. His delivery is effortless and repeatable, and Cameron commands all four of his pitches, giving him an incredibly high floor as a prospect because he has basically no relief risk.
His best pitch is a changeup in the 80-84 mph range. It’s uncommon for pitchers with Cameron’s nearly perfect vertical arm slot to be able to turn over a changeup from this position, let alone a plus one, but even as he has climbed into the upper levels of the minors, this pitch has been generating plus miss. It succeeds more because of Cameron’s ability to locate it than its pure movement, and it’s also aided by how long he hides the baseball, and how loose and free his arm action is. The vertical nature of Cameron’s arm stroke creates backspinning ride on his fastball. It isn’t a speedy offering — it sits about 92 mph and will peak around 96 — but, again, deception and command season its effectiveness. The combination of his below-average velo and a top-of-the-zone approach to fastball location has made Cameron homer-prone for stretches in the minors, especially in 2023, when he allowed 19 bombs in 107.1 innings, and again so far this year. Seemingly in response to this, he’s upped his cutter usage in 2025, more as a way to stay off barrels than to miss bats.
Cameron also has an 80-84 mph 12-to-6 curveball, the shape of which mirrors that of his fastball. He will manipulate its direction somewhat against lefties to give it a little more of a slider look. The depth of his curveball and the quality of his changeup gives Cameron two ways to tilt with righties and generate whiffs. Against lefties, he becomes heavily reliant on his fastball. This guy is a very stable rotation piece with two plus attributes and two average ones. Though he lacks star-level stuff, Cameron is a stable, polished no. 4 starter prospect.
2.99 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in across 140 innings in his first year might suggest he could exceed the #4 starter expectation.
He had a BABIP of .241, which was almost .050 below league average. Probably not sustainable given that, of the 663 pitchers who have thrown at least 1000 ML innings since 1969, that would tie him for 2nd best in BABIP.
He also had 84.0% of his runners left on base, vs. a ML average of just 72.3%. And that 84.0% would be the best (by a wide margin since 2nd is Mariano Rivera at 80.4%) of those 663 pitchers since 1969.
So, yeah, a lot of fluky good "luck" in his results last year.
#Regressiontothemean
Maybe he’s a bit more deceptive and while lacking overpowering stuff still tough to square up? That could help him overachieve, so to speak, when it comes to certain metrics. If indicators were the be all end all, why even have GMs or scouts?
Not saying they aren’t relevant, just saying that maybe not all metrics apply equally to every player. Maybe he’ll end up being fool’s gold, but as of now, his actual performance and production can’t be taken away or overshadowed by potential indicators.
Not that the indicators should be completely ignored, but the fact his BTV is reasonably close to Donovan’s tells me there is a lot to like too.
Cameron's BTV has gone up 10 pts in the past month due to the demand for pitchers and having nothing to do with his performance.
Then maybe it’s a [shirt] indicator if it’s always in flux.
It's a point of reference, it's not the gospel.
Then why’d you bring it up?
Umm, because the previous post did. That aside, I do use it as a point of reference.
No shortage of points of reference around here. Except actual production.
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 18:00 pm
FG's last write up on Cameron:
Cameron was drafted in the seventh round of the 2021 draft out of Central Arkansas not long after he had a Tommy John surgery. He had an encouraging 2023, his first full season, despite a 5.28 ERA, as he posted strong peripherals across 107.1 innings (28.3% K%, 7.5% BB%) and reached Double-A. His 2024 and early-2025 performance have been practically identical. Cameron worked 128.2 innings in 2024, and during the second half of the season was stretched out to six or seven innings per outing. This year, he made seven good Triple-A starts and was promoted to the bigs. His delivery is effortless and repeatable, and Cameron commands all four of his pitches, giving him an incredibly high floor as a prospect because he has basically no relief risk.
His best pitch is a changeup in the 80-84 mph range. It’s uncommon for pitchers with Cameron’s nearly perfect vertical arm slot to be able to turn over a changeup from this position, let alone a plus one, but even as he has climbed into the upper levels of the minors, this pitch has been generating plus miss. It succeeds more because of Cameron’s ability to locate it than its pure movement, and it’s also aided by how long he hides the baseball, and how loose and free his arm action is. The vertical nature of Cameron’s arm stroke creates backspinning ride on his fastball. It isn’t a speedy offering — it sits about 92 mph and will peak around 96 — but, again, deception and command season its effectiveness. The combination of his below-average velo and a top-of-the-zone approach to fastball location has made Cameron homer-prone for stretches in the minors, especially in 2023, when he allowed 19 bombs in 107.1 innings, and again so far this year. Seemingly in response to this, he’s upped his cutter usage in 2025, more as a way to stay off barrels than to miss bats.
Cameron also has an 80-84 mph 12-to-6 curveball, the shape of which mirrors that of his fastball. He will manipulate its direction somewhat against lefties to give it a little more of a slider look. The depth of his curveball and the quality of his changeup gives Cameron two ways to tilt with righties and generate whiffs. Against lefties, he becomes heavily reliant on his fastball. This guy is a very stable rotation piece with two plus attributes and two average ones. Though he lacks star-level stuff, Cameron is a stable, polished no. 4 starter prospect.
2.99 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in across 140 innings in his first year might suggest he could exceed the #4 starter expectation.
He had a BABIP of .241, which was almost .050 below league average. Probably not sustainable given that, of the 663 pitchers who have thrown at least 1000 ML innings since 1969, that would tie him for 2nd best in BABIP.
He also had 84.0% of his runners left on base, vs. a ML average of just 72.3%. And that 84.0% would be the best (by a wide margin since 2nd is Mariano Rivera at 80.4%) of those 663 pitchers since 1969.
So, yeah, a lot of fluky good "luck" in his results last year.
#Regressiontothemean
Royals believe that's going to be the best era of his career...now he might have some mid 3 seasons but he points to a guy that will be around 4 to 4.2 ....
kyace wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 19:24 pm
Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.
Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.
You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.
Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.
I think if Cameron is moved it is for a young controllable outfielder from a contender. I don’t like just getting one pitcher as they are so injury prone and could result in nothing. Also he’s not going to get the Cards for at least three years to the playoffs so those controllable years are going to be wasted.
