Competing now vs. rebuilding are conflicting goals

[11WSChamps]

Its the St. Louis Cardinals and the NL Central.

If this franchise can't at least compete every season in this division then you've got real problems and now they do.

If people can't see this then they're on the wrong forum.

Your name suggests you know better, but if you think the game is winning this division, you're following the wrong team.

Our competition is the Dodgers and Yankees, not the Pirates and Reds.

I do know better. And what I do know is in order to wind up playing the Dodgers and Yankees you have to first beat the Brewers and Cubs.

How many folks here call the playoffs a (bleep) shoot?

I don't see it that way but the ballclub did for the last decade.

My point is the organization doesn't and shouldn't have to resort to a scorched earth philosophy.

You may say we're not competing with the Reds and pirates of the world but it sure does look like it.

[renostl]

Its the St. Louis Cardinals and the NL Central.

If this franchise can't at least compete every season in this division then you've got real problems and now they do.

If people can't see this then they're on the wrong forum.

Your name suggests you know better, but if you think the game is winning this division, you're following the wrong team.

Our competition is the Dodgers and Yankees, not the Pirates and Reds.

I do know better. And what I do know is in order to wind up playing the Dodgers and Yankees you have to first beat the Brewers and Cubs.

How many folks here call the playoffs a (bleep) shoot?

I don't see it that way but the ballclub did for the last decade.

My point is the organization doesn't and shouldn't have to resort to a scorched earth philosophy.

You may say we're not competing with the Reds and pirates of the world but it sure does look like it.

Agreement.

Some may want to believe that the Cards, can go toe to toe with the Yankees.
In any one season that is possible even probable. To sustain that isn't realistic IMO.
At least not in todays rules.

They will have their years where everything works, a career year emerges, no injuries
etc. Those teams in todays environment have too much advantage. Japan partnerships,
$350 million local TV revenue, $50+ avg ticket price, $30 to park etc.

Win the division, sustain that and you have a chance to add at the deadline for those
special teams.

[mattmitchl44]

Whole heartedly disagree.

They are not conflicting. You can do both. Making decisions on players isn't unique. It happens every year.

You can have it both ways..

To say otherwise shows lack of creativity and judgement.

As noted you can TRY to do both, and likely end up doing both poorly.

Why? A good GM should be able to make good decisions on both fronts. Is a premiere executive only supposed to be good at one aspect of their job and lose decision making ability when multitasking?

And why did the team pay for Bloom? They could’ve just promoted Girsch and tell Oli to lose as much as possible to get the highest draft picks.

Another major variable is opportunity. Who knows what trade scenario might emerge, or who might become available.

Bloom needs to acquire prospects not just through the draft or international signings. He needs to trade the Cardinals tradable assets (Donovan, Gray, Arenado, etc.) for ML-ready prospects to add to the talent on the team in the next 2-3 years.

But when you trade those assets, you are seriously downgrading your ability to compete in 2026.

Once you have rebuilt your player development system then you can both compete and sustain that player development system at the same time. But sustaining a top player development system is a lot different than having to rebuild one.

[CorneliusWolfe]

Whole heartedly disagree.

They are not conflicting. You can do both. Making decisions on players isn't unique. It happens every year.

You can have it both ways..

To say otherwise shows lack of creativity and judgement.

As noted you can TRY to do both, and likely end up doing both poorly.

Why? A good GM should be able to make good decisions on both fronts. Is a premiere executive only supposed to be good at one aspect of their job and lose decision making ability when multitasking?

And why did the team pay for Bloom? They could’ve just promoted Girsch and tell Oli to lose as much as possible to get the highest draft picks.

Another major variable is opportunity. Who knows what trade scenario might emerge, or who might become available.

Bloom needs to acquire prospects not just through the draft or international signings. He needs to trade the Cardinals tradable assets (Donovan, Gray, Arenado, etc.) for ML-ready prospects to add to the talent on the team in the next 2-3 years.

But when you trade those assets, you are seriously downgrading your ability to compete in 2026.

Once you have rebuilt your player development system then you can both compete and sustain that player development system at the same time. But sustaining a top player development system is a lot different than having to rebuild one.

There are already outlets ranking the farm as #1. Can we not start the other part now, or do we have to wait until all outlets have the farm at #1?

I could see if the farm was in shambles, but that part seems pretty well fixed, and by some accounts elite even.

This young team does not need to be completely immersed in losing year after year. It’s bad for their development. Winners aren’t carved out of losers.

[mattmitchl44]

Whole heartedly disagree.

They are not conflicting. You can do both. Making decisions on players isn't unique. It happens every year.

You can have it both ways..

To say otherwise shows lack of creativity and judgement.

As noted you can TRY to do both, and likely end up doing both poorly.

Why? A good GM should be able to make good decisions on both fronts. Is a premiere executive only supposed to be good at one aspect of their job and lose decision making ability when multitasking?

And why did the team pay for Bloom? They could’ve just promoted Girsch and tell Oli to lose as much as possible to get the highest draft picks.

Another major variable is opportunity. Who knows what trade scenario might emerge, or who might become available.

Bloom needs to acquire prospects not just through the draft or international signings. He needs to trade the Cardinals tradable assets (Donovan, Gray, Arenado, etc.) for ML-ready prospects to add to the talent on the team in the next 2-3 years.

But when you trade those assets, you are seriously downgrading your ability to compete in 2026.

Once you have rebuilt your player development system then you can both compete and sustain that player development system at the same time. But sustaining a top player development system is a lot different than having to rebuild one.

There are already outlets ranking the farm as #1. Can we not start the other part now, or do we have to wait until all outlets have the farm at #1?

I could see if the farm was in shambles, but that part seems pretty well fixed, and by some accounts elite even.

This young team does not need to be completely immersed in losing year after year. It’s bad for their development. Winners aren’t carved out of losers.

The player development system may, or may not, be fixed yet.

The Cardinals farm system is graded highly due a lot to Wetherholt and Doyle. But let's see those two delivered to St. Louis, performing well, and the system being refilled effectively behind them before declaring the whole organization fixed.

As I noted here viewtopic.php?t=1517927

So their timeline for when this "rebuild" will have been successful is likely determined by when Wetherholt and Doyle can make it to the majors and be those young, borderline A-S players needed at the top of this list.

[AZ_Cardsfan]

I get it. Some here are reluctant to embrace a year of losing in 2026. No one likes it. But the sad reality is the state of the team right now can not be converted to competitive without either this rebuild or massive infusion of money. And that infusion would not be covered by revenues so don't hold your breath waiting for it.

I'm in the camp of being able to wait a year or two for the system to come together and create an organization that can compete year after year within reasonable spending constraints. If this team was competitive I believe the 3 mil fans would return and they could afford near a $200 mil salary structure. Which is enough IF the farm is delivering. But one short period where the farm is ranked high isn't enough. it needs to have a basis in scouting, development and coaching matching any team in baseball to compete with the Dodgers of this world.

[mattmitchl44]

I get it. Some here are reluctant to embrace a year of losing in 2026. No one likes it. But the sad reality is the state of the team right now can not be converted to competitive without either this rebuild or massive infusion of money. And that infusion would not be covered by revenues so don't hold your breath waiting for it.

I'm in the camp of being able to wait a year or two for the system to come together and create an organization that can compete year after year within reasonable spending constraints. If this team was competitive I believe the 3 mil fans would return and they could afford near a $200 mil salary structure. Which is enough IF the farm is delivering. But one short period where the farm is ranked high isn't enough. it needs to have a basis in scouting, development and coaching matching any team in baseball to compete with the Dodgers of this world.

As has been pointed out before, had the Cardinals made the right decision to go full rebuild back at the trading deadline in 2023, they'd presumably be somewhat farther along now. But they muddled along for two more years trying to "compete" and here we are.

[AZ_Cardsfan]

I get it. Some here are reluctant to embrace a year of losing in 2026. No one likes it. But the sad reality is the state of the team right now can not be converted to competitive without either this rebuild or massive infusion of money. And that infusion would not be covered by revenues so don't hold your breath waiting for it.

I'm in the camp of being able to wait a year or two for the system to come together and create an organization that can compete year after year within reasonable spending constraints. If this team was competitive I believe the 3 mil fans would return and they could afford near a $200 mil salary structure. Which is enough IF the farm is delivering. But one short period where the farm is ranked high isn't enough. it needs to have a basis in scouting, development and coaching matching any team in baseball to compete with the Dodgers of this world.

As has been pointed out before, had the Cardinals made the right decision to go full rebuild back at the trading deadline in 2023, they'd presumably be somewhat farther along now. But they muddled along for two more years trying to "compete" and here we are.

I was on the fence in January of 2023. I would have accepted a proper rebuild then, or go all in and spend up to $200 mil bolstering the roster for a run. They chose neither. Sitting on the fence rarely works.

[11WSChamps]

I get it. Some here are reluctant to embrace a year of losing in 2026. No one likes it. But the sad reality is the state of the team right now can not be converted to competitive without either this rebuild or massive infusion of money. And that infusion would not be covered by revenues so don't hold your breath waiting for it.

I'm in the camp of being able to wait a year or two for the system to come together and create an organization that can compete year after year within reasonable spending constraints. If this team was competitive I believe the 3 mil fans would return and they could afford near a $200 mil salary structure. Which is enough IF the farm is delivering. But one short period where the farm is ranked high isn't enough. it needs to have a basis in scouting, development and coaching matching any team in baseball to compete with the Dodgers of this world.

I could live with a short rebuild window but I fear it will much longer and perhaps even a perpetual cycle.

[CorneliusWolfe]

I get it. Some here are reluctant to embrace a year of losing in 2026. No one likes it. But the sad reality is the state of the team right now can not be converted to competitive without either this rebuild or massive infusion of money. And that infusion would not be covered by revenues so don't hold your breath waiting for it.

I'm in the camp of being able to wait a year or two for the system to come together and create an organization that can compete year after year within reasonable spending constraints. If this team was competitive I believe the 3 mil fans would return and they could afford near a $200 mil salary structure. Which is enough IF the farm is delivering. But one short period where the farm is ranked high isn't enough. it needs to have a basis in scouting, development and coaching matching any team in baseball to compete with the Dodgers of this world.

This isn’t a 100 loss team. A .500 team with a top rated farm system has no need in further tanking.

And when you mention accepting another down year, I don’t think you’re necessarily in the “other”camp. They want to lose as much as possible for several more years (tank) and expect a wave of prospects to swoop in and turn the team around with no veteran presence and experience to help lead the way.

The team needs to spend, though they will never reach the Dodgers spending levels, even with the annual welfare check they get from the good teams that they only seem to invest in gambling and other non-baseball business ventures.

And I can acknowledge, the right players/deals might not materialize as soon as some of us hope. If that’s the case, so be it. We shouldn’t just spend foolishly on mediocre players, which is what the OP just assumes we’ll do. The OP also assumes every free agent we sign will be another Arenado situation and every prospect will shine.

Chances are one of Doyle or Wetherholt (maybe both) doesn’t even live up to the hype. Remember when Walker, Gorman, Carlson etc was the next big wave that was going to be the core to build a winner around? Right back at square one, as it often goes when putting all your hopes in kids that are just happy to be here with no competition to push them into survival mode.

These assumptions should not make for a gutless and losing-embracing mindset. Any sensible opportunity to improve that emerges should be at least be explored. Anything less is cheap, imprudent, and negligent.

[CorneliusWolfe]

I get it. Some here are reluctant to embrace a year of losing in 2026. No one likes it. But the sad reality is the state of the team right now can not be converted to competitive without either this rebuild or massive infusion of money. And that infusion would not be covered by revenues so don't hold your breath waiting for it.

I'm in the camp of being able to wait a year or two for the system to come together and create an organization that can compete year after year within reasonable spending constraints. If this team was competitive I believe the 3 mil fans would return and they could afford near a $200 mil salary structure. Which is enough IF the farm is delivering. But one short period where the farm is ranked high isn't enough. it needs to have a basis in scouting, development and coaching matching any team in baseball to compete with the Dodgers of this world.

I could live with a short rebuild window but I fear it will much longer and perhaps even a perpetual cycle.

Perpetual is correct and a real possibility. Nothing is guaranteed so no need to put all eggs in one basket.

[CorneliusWolfe]

Its the St. Louis Cardinals and the NL Central.

If this franchise can't at least compete every season in this division then you've got real problems and now they do.

If people can't see this then they're on the wrong forum.

Your name suggests you know better, but if you think the game is winning this division, you're following the wrong team.

Our competition is the Dodgers and Yankees, not the Pirates and Reds.

I do know better. And what I do know is in order to wind up playing the Dodgers and Yankees you have to first beat the Brewers and Cubs.

How many folks here call the playoffs a (bleep) shoot?

I don't see it that way but the ballclub did for the last decade.

My point is the organization doesn't and shouldn't have to resort to a scorched earth philosophy.

You may say we're not competing with the Reds and pirates of the world but it sure does look like it.

Well stated. And I’m tired of hearing this Dodger-fear being the reason we can’t try to win. Let’s just lay down and pout because they have more money.

[CorneliusWolfe]

I get it. Some here are reluctant to embrace a year of losing in 2026. No one likes it. But the sad reality is the state of the team right now can not be converted to competitive without either this rebuild or massive infusion of money. And that infusion would not be covered by revenues so don't hold your breath waiting for it.

I'm in the camp of being able to wait a year or two for the system to come together and create an organization that can compete year after year within reasonable spending constraints. If this team was competitive I believe the 3 mil fans would return and they could afford near a $200 mil salary structure. Which is enough IF the farm is delivering. But one short period where the farm is ranked high isn't enough. it needs to have a basis in scouting, development and coaching matching any team in baseball to compete with the Dodgers of this world.

As has been pointed out before, had the Cardinals made the right decision to go full rebuild back at the trading deadline in 2023, they'd presumably be somewhat farther along now. But they muddled along for two more years trying to "compete" and here we are.

Just because you keep pointing out your previously stated opinions and posting links to them doesn’t make them right.

And tell me in what ways did they “try to compete” the last few years? All I’ve seen were salary dumps, trading vets away for zero return (Robersse non-tendered today) Oli sticking around too long, the emergence of Alec Burleson as an everyday player, the worst outfield in MLB, no major acquisitions, and no playoffs. Do you really perceive that as going for it?

[ecleme22]

You can compete now by signing vets to one year deals.

No vet should be picked up by way of trading prospects, nor be the primary return for any of our trades (the exception would be an Arenado for Castellanos deal if Bloom can’t get anything for NA…).


This strategy is pro today and pro rebuild. If the team is out of it, you flip all the vets at the deadline…

I agree with signing FAs on one year deals, but they are never going to get to being competitive in 2026 based on those additions.

So, IMO, that is not trying to compete.

Well, let's remember how bad Miko, Pallante, Arenado, Fedde and several others were. And the team was 78-84.

I don't think the 2026 team, with the addition of FA vets, will win 100 games. But 82-87 could happen. And that's competitive.

I think there's this assumption that the team will automatically be worse than 2025. I don't think that's the case.

Fortunately, the rebuild isn't starting at zero like the 2012 Cubs.

If you like what we've been getting, then follow this plan because you're simply regurgitating the teams strategy for the last decade.

You may be smarter than DeWitt and MO, not a heavy lift, but you're not bringing home any WS flags with that plan.

Name all the 1 year deals for STARTING players the Cards have signed from 2012-2025.

I'm not talking about signing one year players. I'm talking about your insistence that the team try to be "competitive" every year, even though they have almost zero chance of winning a title even if we added these players.

Instead, the team should spend that money signing some INFAs or hiring better development coaches, etc..

Well, when you sign low risk / high reward vets to one year deals, one of the reasons you do it is to flip them at the deadline to increase the prospects in your organization. Being competitive in 2026 wouldn't be the primary reason for the acquisitions...

Low risk / high reward vets are typically going to command multi-year deals, which creates more risk and makes them less flippable, unless they are really helping your team, in which case you'd hate to lose them.

Low risk meaning a low contract amount.

High reward meaning there is a potential upside.

I’d be ok taking a flyer on a 2003 Chris Carpenter type starter or two.

Sure. Even a Kyle Gibson type.

And as someone said earlier, let the position spots go to AAA guys….while I agree in part, if Bloom unloads LN, WC and maybe NG and/or JW (NA is gone), might be a good opportunity to sign some flippable P[ositively] O[bnoxious] S[impleton] players.

[zuck698]

I get it. Some here are reluctant to embrace a year of losing in 2026. No one likes it. But the sad reality is the state of the team right now can not be converted to competitive without either this rebuild or massive infusion of money. And that infusion would not be covered by revenues so don't hold your breath waiting for it.

I'm in the camp of being able to wait a year or two for the system to come together and create an organization that can compete year after year within reasonable spending constraints. If this team was competitive I believe the 3 mil fans would return and they could afford near a $200 mil salary structure. Which is enough IF the farm is delivering. But one short period where the farm is ranked high isn't enough. it needs to have a basis in scouting, development and coaching matching any team in baseball to compete with the Dodgers of this world.

As has been pointed out before, had the Cardinals made the right decision to go full rebuild back at the trading deadline in 2023, they'd presumably be somewhat farther along now. But they muddled along for two more years trying to "compete" and here we are.

Just because you keep pointing out your previously stated opinions and posting links to them doesn’t make them right.

And tell me in what ways did they “try to compete” the last few years? All I’ve seen were salary dumps, trading vets away for zero return (Robersse non-tendered today) Oli sticking around too long, the emergence of Alec Burleson as an everyday player, the worst outfield in MLB, no major acquisitions, and no playoffs. Do you really perceive that as going for it?

Preach C.W.! We haven't been competing at all! Just wrong moves and built in excuses for years and many here want to sign up for more of whatever Bill is spouting out! Dry powder, lack of tv revenue, hiring a manager and telling him not to worry about winning, we "don't want you pressured"! We have not been competing for years ,regardless how many times it has been said here we have. 2016 was the beginning. Sure we got some eye candy in Paul and Nolan at sweetheart deals to keep the fans' eyes busy, but a long way from competing! Welcome to the new Pittsburgh here in the Lou.

[Ronnie Dobbs]

My point is the organization doesn't and shouldn't have to resort to a scorched earth philosophy.

You may say we're not competing with the Reds and pirates of the world but it sure does look like it.

No it doesn’t. Come on.

Yes, it’s not been a good few years for the Cardinals, but there’s no comparison at all between them and those two teams. But all teams have down periods. No one likes it, but it happens. Look at the New England Patriots. They’ve been pretty bad for 5 years after an insane run.

Stuff happens in a decade or two of success. You lose some iconic players. You have some successful people within the front office leave. Your model gets outdated. Whatever. All kinds of things. And you have to recognize when it’s time to make a change. You could say that the Cardinals should have recognized that a year or two before last year, and I would agree with that. But either way, you need to accept that some things have gone wrong and be willing to make the change.

It might be rough for a bit, but you have to do it. That’s what the team is doing now. If you think that they’re never going to come back from this, never spend money like they did before, and model their organization after the Reds or Pirates, that’s fine and that’s your opinion. But where the evidence? The Cardinals have consistently been a draft and develop team that spends around top ten/top third in payroll. They’ve had a lot of success doing that. Why wouldn’t they go back to that?