Why all the JJ hype.

[Ace]

IMO his floor is in the Brendan Donovan type mold and his ceiling is more in the Alex Bregman type mold. His floor/ceiling is closer together than many other top prospects. It's going to be more important what the Cardinals build around him. We are many pieces away from having sustainable success.

[Hoosier59]

I personally feel JJ will be in the running for Rookie of the Year, but what that looks like will depend on what protection is around him.
If Oli has him hit lead off, wouldn’t it look really good to have a guy behind him, who can take pitches to allow him to steal, or hit behind him in the hole created by the 1st baseman having to hold him close. The Cardinals currently have the perfect guy to do just that! His name is Brendan Donovan. Follow those two with Herrera and Burleson and that’s a pretty good 1-4 line up.

Nice write. Thank you/ the Donovan entry is intriguing. And you didn’t even mention Scott Walker or Winn, if they show progress, then this team is relevant on offense.

And since you mentioned Donovan where does he play. Third?

I think Spring will determine where he plays. Obviously a lot will depend on who else is still on the team. I’m hoping that Donnie is still there. If he is, then, we know Donnie can play either position, so it would depend on where JJ looks best. I like our infield, especially with Saggese being able to back up every spot. If Contreras is moved, then Burleson is at 1st, if Willson stays, Burly goes to LF/DH.

[45s]

I remember when this board anointed Paul DeJong has a star shortstop for the next 10 years…

[rockondlouie]

If Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. don't become 4+ fWAR players in 3, 4, etc. years, you're going to have to pivot. You might have to start trading Winn, Herrera, etc. for more "high ceiling" prospects to reload and build toward 2032, 2033. That's just reality.

HOLY CR AP matt

Now you want the Cardinals to s u c k for SEVEN-EIGHT years and deal off their best young players for even more prospects/suspects?

Say hello to 1.5M (at best) attendance.

[45s]

If Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. don't become 4+ fWAR players in 3, 4, etc. years, you're going to have to pivot. You might have to start trading Winn, Herrera, etc. for more "high ceiling" prospects to reload and build toward 2032, 2033. That's just reality.

HOLY CR AP matt

Now you want the Cardinals to s u c k for SEVEN-EIGHT years and deal off their best young players for even more prospects/suspects?

Say hello to 1.5M (at best) attendance.

Well……at least they won’t be getting any of your money…

[mattmitchl44]

If Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. don't become 4+ fWAR players in 3, 4, etc. years, you're going to have to pivot. You might have to start trading Winn, Herrera, etc. for more "high ceiling" prospects to reload and build toward 2032, 2033. That's just reality.

HOLY CR AP matt

Now you want the Cardinals to s u c k for SEVEN-EIGHT years and deal off their best young players for even more prospects/suspects?

Say hello to 1.5M (at best) attendance.

No, I expect them to get it right with Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. and be competing for NL pennants and WS titles in 2028, 2029.

[rockondlouie]

If Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. don't become 4+ fWAR players in 3, 4, etc. years, you're going to have to pivot. You might have to start trading Winn, Herrera, etc. for more "high ceiling" prospects to reload and build toward 2032, 2033. That's just reality.

HOLY CR AP matt

Now you want the Cardinals to s u c k for SEVEN-EIGHT years and deal off their best young players for even more prospects/suspects?

Say hello to 1.5M (at best) attendance.

No, I expect them to get it right with Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. and be competing for NL pennants and WS titles in 2028, 2029.

Okay, you scared me there w/that 2032, 2033 talk.

[mattmitchl44]

If Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. don't become 4+ fWAR players in 3, 4, etc. years, you're going to have to pivot. You might have to start trading Winn, Herrera, etc. for more "high ceiling" prospects to reload and build toward 2032, 2033. That's just reality.

HOLY CR AP matt

Now you want the Cardinals to s u c k for SEVEN-EIGHT years and deal off their best young players for even more prospects/suspects?

Say hello to 1.5M (at best) attendance.

No, I expect them to get it right with Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. and be competing for NL pennants and WS titles in 2028, 2029.

Okay, you scared me there w/that 2032, 2033 talk.

How did you not read, "If Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. don't become 4+ fWAR players in 3, 4, etc. years..."

[Goldfan]

To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.

I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.

That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.

Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce (and they need to produce another one in Doyle or somebody else).

And they need to use their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are NOT putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.

The contingent who wants the Cardinals to go out and spend a lot of money to "compete now" in 2026 are the ones who need Wetherholt to be a 4+ fWAR player from Day 1 (even if they don't realize it) in order for the Cardinals to have even ~90 win talent in 2026.

Matt, I’ve held my keystrokes long enough on this WAR, FWAR, BWAR nonsense….you post these Single digit numbers like it represents something. When in actually it could mean anything….
Masyn Winn
2025
3.5FWAR
.253
9HR
51 RBI
.637 OPS
GG
I’m assuming a large portion of his WAR came from his D. So what if you had these 3.5-4 WAR players all over the diamond like WINN. Great D, really not much offense. Thats not a good team. The offense would suck…..they won’t score many runs….but in your assessment those are very good players. In ‘24 BWAR had Winn at 5.3. His offensive numbers were a little better than last year, but again a team full of 5.3 Winns isn’t going to score enough and yet your heralding these WAR numbers.

[rockondlouie]

If Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. don't become 4+ fWAR players in 3, 4, etc. years, you're going to have to pivot. You might have to start trading Winn, Herrera, etc. for more "high ceiling" prospects to reload and build toward 2032, 2033. That's just reality.

HOLY CR AP matt

Now you want the Cardinals to s u c k for SEVEN-EIGHT years and deal off their best young players for even more prospects/suspects?

Say hello to 1.5M (at best) attendance.

No, I expect them to get it right with Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. and be competing for NL pennants and WS titles in 2028, 2029.

Okay, you scared me there w/that 2032, 2033 talk.

How did you not read, "If Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. don't become 4+ fWAR players in 3, 4, etc. years..."

I did, but my eye's glazed over when I saw the 2032, 2033 insanity.

[mattmitchl44]

To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.

I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.

That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.

Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce (and they need to produce another one in Doyle or somebody else).

And they need to use their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are NOT putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.

The contingent who wants the Cardinals to go out and spend a lot of money to "compete now" in 2026 are the ones who need Wetherholt to be a 4+ fWAR player from Day 1 (even if they don't realize it) in order for the Cardinals to have even ~90 win talent in 2026.

Matt, I’ve held my keystrokes long enough on this WAR, FWAR, BWAR nonsense….you post these Single digit numbers like it represents something. When in actually it could mean anything….
Masyn Winn
2025
3.5FWAR
.253
9HR
51 RBI
.637 OPS
GG
I’m assuming a large portion of his WAR came from his D. So what if you had these 3.5-4 WAR players all over the diamond like WINN. Great D, really not much offense. Thats not a good team. The offense would suck…..they won’t score many runs….but in your assessment those are very good players. In ‘24 BWAR had Winn at 5.3. His offensive numbers were a little better than last year, but again a team full of 5.3 Winns isn’t going to score enough and yet your heralding these WAR numbers.

You have to have players who do complementary things.

No DH, 1B, LF, etc. is going to ever be a 3.5-4 fWAR player based on defense. They would have to hit their way to that level.

So you can't have a team of "all Masyn Winn's" being 3.5+ fWAR players.

[Goldfan]

To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.

I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.

That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.

Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce (and they need to produce another one in Doyle or somebody else).

And they need to use their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are NOT putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.

The contingent who wants the Cardinals to go out and spend a lot of money to "compete now" in 2026 are the ones who need Wetherholt to be a 4+ fWAR player from Day 1 (even if they don't realize it) in order for the Cardinals to have even ~90 win talent in 2026.

Matt, I’ve held my keystrokes long enough on this WAR, FWAR, BWAR nonsense….you post these Single digit numbers like it represents something. When in actually it could mean anything….
Masyn Winn
2025
3.5FWAR
.253
9HR
51 RBI
.637 OPS
GG
I’m assuming a large portion of his WAR came from his D. So what if you had these 3.5-4 WAR players all over the diamond like WINN. Great D, really not much offense. Thats not a good team. The offense would suck…..they won’t score many runs….but in your assessment those are very good players. In ‘24 BWAR had Winn at 5.3. His offensive numbers were a little better than last year, but again a team full of 5.3 Winns isn’t going to score enough and yet your heralding these WAR numbers.

You have to have players who do complementary things.

No DH, 1B, LF, etc. is going to ever be a 3.5-4 fWAR player based on defense. They would have to hit their way to that level.

So you can't have a team of "all Masyn Winn's" being 3.5+ fWAR players.

Exactly my point….the number is meaningless

[Goldfan]

To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.

I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.

That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.

Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce (and they need to produce another one in Doyle or somebody else).

And they need to use their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are NOT putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.

The contingent who wants the Cardinals to go out and spend a lot of money to "compete now" in 2026 are the ones who need Wetherholt to be a 4+ fWAR player from Day 1 (even if they don't realize it) in order for the Cardinals to have even ~90 win talent in 2026.

Matt, I’ve held my keystrokes long enough on this WAR, FWAR, BWAR nonsense….you post these Single digit numbers like it represents something. When in actually it could mean anything….
Masyn Winn
2025
3.5FWAR
.253
9HR
51 RBI
.637 OPS
GG
I’m assuming a large portion of his WAR came from his D. So what if you had these 3.5-4 WAR players all over the diamond like WINN. Great D, really not much offense. Thats not a good team. The offense would suck…..they won’t score many runs….but in your assessment those are very good players. In ‘24 BWAR had Winn at 5.3. His offensive numbers were a little better than last year, but again a team full of 5.3 Winns isn’t going to score enough and yet your heralding these WAR numbers.

You have to have players who do complementary things.

No DH, 1B, LF, etc. is going to ever be a 3.5-4 fWAR player based on defense. They would have to hit their way to that level.

So you can't have a team of "all Masyn Winn's" being 3.5+ fWAR players.

You WAR fellas would have team full of Winns, Edman’s, Heywards with 5-6WAR and wonder why you can’t score 3runs/game

[rbirules]

IMO his floor is in the Brendan Donovan type mold and his ceiling is more in the Alex Bregman type mold. His floor/ceiling is closer together than many other top prospects. It's going to be more important what the Cardinals build around him. We are many pieces away from having sustainable success.

I was thinking more Chase Utley, than Bregman, as his ceiling comp, but not too different. Utley had more speed and played 2B (I think JJ could play 3B or 2B), but both are high walk, low strike out, moderate to good power hitters.

[mattmitchl44]

To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.

I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.

That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.

Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce (and they need to produce another one in Doyle or somebody else).

And they need to use their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are NOT putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.

The contingent who wants the Cardinals to go out and spend a lot of money to "compete now" in 2026 are the ones who need Wetherholt to be a 4+ fWAR player from Day 1 (even if they don't realize it) in order for the Cardinals to have even ~90 win talent in 2026.

Matt, I’ve held my keystrokes long enough on this WAR, FWAR, BWAR nonsense….you post these Single digit numbers like it represents something. When in actually it could mean anything….
Masyn Winn
2025
3.5FWAR
.253
9HR
51 RBI
.637 OPS
GG
I’m assuming a large portion of his WAR came from his D. So what if you had these 3.5-4 WAR players all over the diamond like WINN. Great D, really not much offense. Thats not a good team. The offense would suck…..they won’t score many runs….but in your assessment those are very good players. In ‘24 BWAR had Winn at 5.3. His offensive numbers were a little better than last year, but again a team full of 5.3 Winns isn’t going to score enough and yet your heralding these WAR numbers.

You have to have players who do complementary things.

No DH, 1B, LF, etc. is going to ever be a 3.5-4 fWAR player based on defense. They would have to hit their way to that level.

So you can't have a team of "all Masyn Winn's" being 3.5+ fWAR players.

Exactly my point….the number is meaningless

Not meaningless if you actually understand them.

Scoring runs and preventing opponents from scoring runs both contribute to winning.

[rockondlouie]

I was thinking more Chase Utley, than Bregman, as his ceiling comp, but not too different. Utley had more speed and played 2B (I think JJ could play 3B or 2B), but both are high walk, low strike out, moderate to good power hitters.

As we are a lot of times, we're in sync here rbis:


Re: The fundamental question for the Cardinals rebuild
Post by rockondlouie » 04 Oct 2025 08:38 am

Let's hope JJW can come close to being the Cardinals version of C. Utley, then you'd have your 5+ fWAR hitter to build around.