Rebuilding Checklist

[mattmitchl44]

Some people want to believe that Bloom can go out and beat the FA market by spending $75 million and getting 20 or 25 fWAR for it. But that's as hard, or harder, to do than going out and acquiring prospects that will be successful.

But it fits their narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing FAs even when everybody has a ton of reliable information about just how good a FA will or will not likely be.

Now replace "beat the FA market" with.............."beat the prospect market"

&

Replace "their narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing FAs"

with "your narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing prospects"

It is MUCH more possible to "beat the prospect market."

Because there is much more uncertainty with projecting prospects, there is much more value to be gained by being smarter in evaluating them. You can leverage being smarter to gain more of an advantage with prospects than established players.

Uncertainty is exactly the playing field where being smart operates.

Seeing the prospect that can be a 2.5 WAR player for you for six years of team control vs. other teams seeing them as a future 1 WAR player is a much bigger win than seeing the FA who can be a 2.5 WAR player for you vs. other teams seeing them as a 2 WAR player (because you are going to at least have to bid on them like they are a 2 WAR player like everybody else).

Because with advanced analytics all teams are now much more informed than ever before about evaluating established ML players with years of ML performance history, there is much less uncertainty with them in which to leverage being smart.

NO IT'S NOT!

80+% of prospects become nothing but SUSPECTS never seeing an inning in MLB.

With free agents you are acquiring a PROVEN major league player with a PROVEN major league track record.

That is nowhere near an equivalence.

Again I'm going to turn your opinion right back on you:

Because with advanced analytics all teams are now much more informed than ever before about evaluating PROSPECTS!

I could keep trying to explain why having more uncertainty magnifies the value of being smarter, but you're not going to get it. So Im going to stop now.

There's nothing for me to get, your "explanations" are nothing more than faulty opinions and there's certainly nothing you could ever teach me.

Oh, I think we know that is FAR from true.

[Goldfan]

And to be clear, this is how you reliably get to 25-30 fWAR from these 18 pre-ARB/ARB players so that you can take the rest of your $170, $180 million payroll and try to go find 8 full market cost veterans to give you another 14-16 fWAR (at $8-$10 million per fWAR).

That will give you the talent to be in the low 90s in wins.

Ok the model is layed out. Does the pool of players respective to each catagory listed, exist to support this and every teams model.

Seems you need several pools to fish from, but all are ankle deep.

Right now I'm only concerned with the Cardinals pool.

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

That's how the Cardinals fill up their pool as best they can to try to get to where they need to be by the end of 2027 or 2028.

The problem is you never know if these prospects will perform at the ML level…….
You seem to be just ignoring whats in the starting lineup Right Now and worried about some time 5yrs into the future Hoping prospects fill out your list
What are these players today in WAR land?
JJ
Winn
Herrera
WC
Burly

TGKS. 4.9WAR
JJ
Herrera 2.7WAR
Bellinger 4.9WAR
WC 2.8WAR
Burly 2.1WAR
Winn 3.5WAR
Gorman
Scott
And you’re there……in no way negates or impacts building the minors

Sign a FA SP
Return a SP for Gray, Donny, Noot, Romero
Libby
McGreevey
Leahy
Go compete for NL Central….bring butts back to Busch…..and continue building farm….walk and chew guy at same time
Fans aren’t going to wait 4-5yrs HOPING the farm produces a contending ML club…..and if that falls short….you’re starting that process over again

Fans will wait. You’re an idiot

I’m curious, what do you think you’re waiting on?? A kid in high school right now?? The same kind of talent is in place RIGHT NOW when FA proven talent can be added as it might be in 4-5yrs when FA proven talent might be added
I think the internal or already on roster
JJ
Winn
Herrera
Burly
WC
Is about as good as you’re going to get out of the Bloom Farm in the future…..
If you disagree please let us know how good of players do you expect Bloom Farm to produce in 4-5yrs??
If Cards won’t be picking #1 what sort of talent do you expect???

[mattmitchl44]

I’m curious, what do you think you’re waiting on?? A kid in high school right now?? The same kind of talent is in place RIGHT NOW when FA proven talent can be added as it might be in 4-5yrs when FA proven talent might be added
I think the internal or already on roster
JJ
Winn
Herrera
Burly
WC
Is about as good as you’re going to get out of the Bloom Farm in the future…..
If you disagree please let us know how good of players do you expect Bloom Farm to produce in 4-5yrs??
If Cards won’t be picking #1 what sort of talent do you expect???

Wetherholt in 2028, 2029, 2030 is likely better than Wetherholt in 2026.

Doyle not even on the team in 2026 vs. potential front of rotation SP in 2028, 2029, 2030.

Winn could also improve by 2028, 2029.

Herrera and Burleson still in their primes in 2028, 2029.

Liberatore could be better in 2028, 2029.

Literally their entire cast of young talented players could be as good, or much better, in 3-4 years. That's when you want to add peak FA talent to supplement them - not have FA talent you bought this year being an old, worn out version of themselves in 3-4 years.

[Hoosier59]

Some people want to believe that Bloom can go out and beat the FA market by spending $75 million and getting 20 or 25 fWAR for it. But that's as hard, or harder, to do than going out and acquiring prospects that will be successful.

But it fits their narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing FAs even when everybody has a ton of reliable information about just how good a FA will or will not likely be.

Now replace "beat the FA market" with.............."beat the prospect market"

&

Replace "their narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing FAs"

with "your narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing prospects"

It is MUCH more possible to "beat the prospect market."

Because there is much more uncertainty with projecting prospects, there is much more value to be gained by being smarter in evaluating them. You can leverage being smarter to gain more of an advantage with prospects than established players.

Uncertainty is exactly the playing field where being smart operates.

Seeing the prospect that can be a 2.5 WAR player for you for six years of team control vs. other teams seeing them as a future 1 WAR player is a much bigger win than seeing the FA who can be a 2.5 WAR player for you vs. other teams seeing them as a 2 WAR player (because you are going to at least have to bid on them like they are a 2 WAR player like everybody else).

Because with advanced analytics all teams are now much more informed than ever before about evaluating established ML players with years of ML performance history, there is much less uncertainty with them in which to leverage being smart.

NO IT'S NOT!

80+% of prospects become nothing but SUSPECTS never seeing an inning in MLB.

With free agents you are acquiring a PROVEN major league player with a PROVEN major league track record.

That is nowhere near an equivalence.

Again I'm going to turn your opinion right back on you:

Because with advanced analytics all teams are now much more informed than ever before about evaluating PROSPECTS!

I could keep trying to explain why having more uncertainty magnifies the value of being smarter, but you're not going to get it. So Im going to stop now.

Finally!
If you aren’t part of the Cardinals organization, you should be, because your thinking seems to coincide with what they are planning, as Flawed as it is!

[Goldfan]

I’m curious, what do you think you’re waiting on?? A kid in high school right now?? The same kind of talent is in place RIGHT NOW when FA proven talent can be added as it might be in 4-5yrs when FA proven talent might be added
I think the internal or already on roster
JJ
Winn
Herrera
Burly
WC
Is about as good as you’re going to get out of the Bloom Farm in the future…..
If you disagree please let us know how good of players do you expect Bloom Farm to produce in 4-5yrs??
If Cards won’t be picking #1 what sort of talent do you expect???

Wetherholt in 2028, 2029, 2030 is likely better than Wetherholt in 2026.

Doyle not even on the team in 2026 vs. potential front of rotation SP in 2028, 2029, 2030.

Winn could also improve by 2028, 2029.

Herrera and Burleson still in their primes in 2028, 2029.

Liberatore could be better in 2028, 2029.

Literally their entire cast of young talented players could be as good, or much better, in 2-3 years. That's when you want to add peak FA talent to supplement them - not have FA talent you bought this year being an old, worn out version in 2-3 years.

You have absolutely no data supporting that those names won’t peak next season or they will wait to peak in 2-3 yrs
WC certainly won’t be better in 3yrs….you’re fine wasting that FA salary
I thought you were waiting on Prospects to field most of the ML squad but you’re using the same guys I’m using but

[mattmitchl44]

I thought you were waiting on Prospects to field most of the ML squad but you’re using the same guys I’m using but

Did you not read the OP?

So their timeline for when this "rebuild" will have been successful is likely determined by when Wetherholt and Doyle can make it to the majors and be those young, borderline A-S players needed at the top of this list.

Yes, you are still looking at some of the same young players - Herrera, Burleson, Winn, Liberatore.

And you are waiting for more to arrive like Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. And for them to develop into, hopefully, borderline A-S players.

Most players are far from their peak in their first 1-2 years. They still improve as they get into their late 20s in their primes. You know that.

And trade Contreas along with Gray, Arenado, and Donovan to get more AA/AAA ML-ready prospect who can be contributing in 2-4 years.

[Goldfan]

I thought you were waiting on Prospects to field most of the ML squad but you’re using the same guys I’m using but

Did you not read the OP?

So their timeline for when this "rebuild" will have been successful is likely determined by when Wetherholt and Doyle can make it to the majors and be those young, borderline A-S players needed at the top of this list.

Yes, you are still looking at some of the same young players - Herrera, Burleson, Winn, Liberatore.

And you are waiting for more to arrive like Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. And for them to develop into, hopefully, borderline A-S players.

Most players are far from their peak in their first 1-2 years. They still improve as they get into their late 20s in their primes. You know that.

And trade Contreas along with Gray, Arenado, and Donovan to get more AA/AAA ML-ready prospect who can be contributing in 2-4 years.

6-7 yrs of lackluster terrible baseball will leave no fans in Busch….Young fans won’t come back……

[ecleme22]

I thought you were waiting on Prospects to field most of the ML squad but you’re using the same guys I’m using but

Did you not read the OP?

So their timeline for when this "rebuild" will have been successful is likely determined by when Wetherholt and Doyle can make it to the majors and be those young, borderline A-S players needed at the top of this list.

Yes, you are still looking at some of the same young players - Herrera, Burleson, Winn, Liberatore.

And you are waiting for more to arrive like Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. And for them to develop into, hopefully, borderline A-S players.

Most players are far from their peak in their first 1-2 years. They still improve as they get into their late 20s in their primes. You know that.

And trade Contreas along with Gray, Arenado, and Donovan to get more AA/AAA ML-ready prospect who can be contributing in 2-4 years.

6-7 yrs of lackluster terrible baseball will leave no fans in Busch….Young fans won’t come back……

More like .5-1.5 years

[Goldfan]

I thought you were waiting on Prospects to field most of the ML squad but you’re using the same guys I’m using but

Did you not read the OP?

So their timeline for when this "rebuild" will have been successful is likely determined by when Wetherholt and Doyle can make it to the majors and be those young, borderline A-S players needed at the top of this list.

Yes, you are still looking at some of the same young players - Herrera, Burleson, Winn, Liberatore.

And you are waiting for more to arrive like Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. And for them to develop into, hopefully, borderline A-S players.

Most players are far from their peak in their first 1-2 years. They still improve as they get into their late 20s in their primes. You know that.

And trade Contreas along with Gray, Arenado, and Donovan to get more AA/AAA ML-ready prospect who can be contributing in 2-4 years.

6-7 yrs of lackluster terrible baseball will leave no fans in Busch….Young fans won’t come back……

More like .5-1.5 years

It’s been 3 yrs…..Matt’s targeting ‘29. Did you see Busch this last season? Do you think next season is going to be better?? This team needs some stars and to win. This HOPE that Bloom Farm fields a ML club full of almost All-Stars has to be one the most fantasy filled dreams from you good baseball people that I’ve read here since consistently reading posts from CT origination. When was that?? late 90’s??? If this team isn’t tanking and securing the top 1 or 2 draft picks there is no way possible to complete Matts plan. And again wasting away with under .500 seasons for the next 3-4 yrs will kill BDW Golden Goose that is currently on life support

[ecleme22]

I thought you were waiting on Prospects to field most of the ML squad but you’re using the same guys I’m using but

Did you not read the OP?

So their timeline for when this "rebuild" will have been successful is likely determined by when Wetherholt and Doyle can make it to the majors and be those young, borderline A-S players needed at the top of this list.

Yes, you are still looking at some of the same young players - Herrera, Burleson, Winn, Liberatore.

And you are waiting for more to arrive like Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. And for them to develop into, hopefully, borderline A-S players.

Most players are far from their peak in their first 1-2 years. They still improve as they get into their late 20s in their primes. You know that.

And trade Contreas along with Gray, Arenado, and Donovan to get more AA/AAA ML-ready prospect who can be contributing in 2-4 years.

6-7 yrs of lackluster terrible baseball will leave no fans in Busch….Young fans won’t come back……

More like .5-1.5 years

It’s been 3 yrs…..Matt’s targeting ‘29. Did you see Busch this last season? Do you think next season is going to be better?? This team needs some stars and to win. This HOPE that Bloom Farm fields a ML club full of almost All-Stars has to be one the most fantasy filled dreams from you good baseball people that I’ve read here since consistently reading posts from CT origination. When was that?? late 90’s??? If this team isn’t tanking and securing the top 1 or 2 draft picks there is no way possible to complete Matts plan. And again wasting away with under .500 seasons for the next 3-4 yrs will kill BDW Golden Goose that is currently on life support

It’s only been recently they’ve had a game plan. But I think they might be able to achieve a quick turnaround since they haven’t traded away prospects since 2022.

2029 is way too long. I think the 2026 team will be decent and Bloom will start spending money next offseason.

[Goldfan]

I thought you were waiting on Prospects to field most of the ML squad but you’re using the same guys I’m using but

Did you not read the OP?

So their timeline for when this "rebuild" will have been successful is likely determined by when Wetherholt and Doyle can make it to the majors and be those young, borderline A-S players needed at the top of this list.

Yes, you are still looking at some of the same young players - Herrera, Burleson, Winn, Liberatore.

And you are waiting for more to arrive like Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. And for them to develop into, hopefully, borderline A-S players.

Most players are far from their peak in their first 1-2 years. They still improve as they get into their late 20s in their primes. You know that.

And trade Contreas along with Gray, Arenado, and Donovan to get more AA/AAA ML-ready prospect who can be contributing in 2-4 years.

6-7 yrs of lackluster terrible baseball will leave no fans in Busch….Young fans won’t come back……

More like .5-1.5 years

It’s been 3 yrs…..Matt’s targeting ‘29. Did you see Busch this last season? Do you think next season is going to be better?? This team needs some stars and to win. This HOPE that Bloom Farm fields a ML club full of almost All-Stars has to be one the most fantasy filled dreams from you good baseball people that I’ve read here since consistently reading posts from CT origination. When was that?? late 90’s??? If this team isn’t tanking and securing the top 1 or 2 draft picks there is no way possible to complete Matts plan. And again wasting away with under .500 seasons for the next 3-4 yrs will kill BDW Golden Goose that is currently on life support

It’s only been recently they’ve had a game plan. But I think they might be able to achieve a quick turnaround since they haven’t traded away prospects since 2022.

2029 is way too long. I think the 2026 team will be decent and Bloom will start spending money next offseason.

How will the ‘26 team be decent if they don’t sign impact FA hitters?? They’re trading one of their best hitters…….

[juan good eye]

And to be clear, this is how you reliably get to 25-30 fWAR from these 18 pre-ARB/ARB players so that you can take the rest of your $170, $180 million payroll and try to go find 8 full market cost veterans to give you another 14-16 fWAR (at $8-$10 million per fWAR).

That will give you the talent to be in the low 90s in wins.

Ok the model is layed out. Does the pool of players respective to each catagory listed, exist to support this and every teams model.

Seems you need several pools to fish from, but all are ankle deep.

Right now I'm only concerned with the Cardinals pool.

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

That's how the Cardinals fill up their pool as best they can to try to get to where they need to be by the end of 2027 or 2028.

The problem is you never know if these prospects will perform at the ML level…….
You seem to be just ignoring whats in the starting lineup Right Now and worried about some time 5yrs into the future Hoping prospects fill out your list
What are these players today in WAR land?
JJ
Winn
Herrera
WC
Burly

TGKS. 4.9WAR
JJ
Herrera 2.7WAR
Bellinger 4.9WAR
WC 2.8WAR
Burly 2.1WAR
Winn 3.5WAR
Gorman
Scott
And you’re there……in no way negates or impacts building the minors

Sign a FA SP
Return a SP for Gray, Donny, Noot, Romero
Libby
McGreevey
Leahy
Go compete for NL Central….bring butts back to Busch…..and continue building farm….walk and chew guy at same time
Fans aren’t going to wait 4-5yrs HOPING the farm produces a contending ML club…..and if that falls short….you’re starting that process over again

Fans will wait. You’re an idiot

I’m curious, what do you think you’re waiting on?? A kid in high school right now?? The same kind of talent is in place RIGHT NOW when FA proven talent can be added as it might be in 4-5yrs when FA proven talent might be added
I think the internal or already on roster
JJ
Winn
Herrera
Burly
WC
Is about as good as you’re going to get out of the Bloom Farm in the future…..
If you disagree please let us know how good of players do you expect Bloom Farm to produce in 4-5yrs??
If Cards won’t be picking #1 what sort of talent do you expect???

We’re not on the same page.

My point: Fans will wait bc fans don’t have another choice other than no longer being fans. And even if they bail most/many will come back if/when the team is legit exciting again. Nothing new.

Regarding your question:

Idk what we’re going to get from the Bloom era. I’m not super confident in him or the new front office — not bc they’ve done anything wrong yet per se but bc they’re just going to have to prove they are top tier year after year. And if they do then they will soon have enough elite young players required to centerpiece a foundation for a great roster. Of course drafting and development is only one phase of the building a WS winning team.

[mattmitchl44]

I thought you were waiting on Prospects to field most of the ML squad but you’re using the same guys I’m using but

Did you not read the OP?

So their timeline for when this "rebuild" will have been successful is likely determined by when Wetherholt and Doyle can make it to the majors and be those young, borderline A-S players needed at the top of this list.

Yes, you are still looking at some of the same young players - Herrera, Burleson, Winn, Liberatore.

And you are waiting for more to arrive like Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. And for them to develop into, hopefully, borderline A-S players.

Most players are far from their peak in their first 1-2 years. They still improve as they get into their late 20s in their primes. You know that.

And trade Contreas along with Gray, Arenado, and Donovan to get more AA/AAA ML-ready prospect who can be contributing in 2-4 years.

6-7 yrs of lackluster terrible baseball will leave no fans in Busch….Young fans won’t come back……

Let me be clear - I don't care about anyone's obsession with attendance numbers. The Cardinals organization has gone through lengthy dismal stretches (the 1970s, the 1990s) in my lifetime and fans ALWAYS come back when the team starts to win again.

Winning solves everything - but they need to take the time now and put the organization back on a solid foundation of player development where they can win consistently. Running around now and spending a lot of money to put band aids on the ML roster is exactly what they've been doing for the past decade that has landed them in the mess they are in.

[mattmitchl44]

This HOPE that Bloom Farm fields a ML club full of almost All-Stars has to be one the most fantasy filled dreams from you good baseball people that I’ve read here since consistently reading posts from CT origination.

Fun fact - Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara, and Randy Arozarena have all been All-Stars. Unfortunately the Cardinals didn't hang on to them.

Brendan Donovan has been an All-Star. Masyn Winn will probably be an All-Star.

I'm sure I'm probably forgetting others.

So - yeah, it is entirely possible for a team's farm system to develop multiple All-Stars over a relatively short period of time.

Having 3+ All-Star level, or at least borderline All-Star level, young players who are in their pre-ARB or ARB years on your roster is certainly achievable. That and other 7 or so just solid young players who can be average ML regulars is what they need.

[sikeston bulldog2]

This HOPE that Bloom Farm fields a ML club full of almost All-Stars has to be one the most fantasy filled dreams from you good baseball people that I’ve read here since consistently reading posts from CT origination.

Fun fact - Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara, and Randy Arozarena have all been All-Stars. Unfortunately the Cardinals didn't hang on to them.

Brendan Donovan has been an All-Star. Masyn Winn will probably be an All-Star.

I'm sure I'm probably forgetting others.

So - yeah, it is entirely possible for a team's farm system to develop multiple All-Stars over a relatively short period of time.

Having 3+ All-Star level, or at least borderline All-Star level, young players who are in their pre-ARB or ARB years on your roster is certainly achievable. That and other 7 or so just solid young players who can be average ML regulars is what they need.

Your model works. It requires all line items to click simontaneously. That is an issue. If other players can cover a slumping player or two, then it averages out. If not, it leaves a hole.

As for your thought. Yes once you establish a pipeline, this model stands a chance to be relevant.again using the Army model of recruiting- 50 phone calls daily- 5 interviews daily- 3 take ASVAB test- 2 physical- 1 contracts.

Every day.

[ecleme22]

This HOPE that Bloom Farm fields a ML club full of almost All-Stars has to be one the most fantasy filled dreams from you good baseball people that I’ve read here since consistently reading posts from CT origination.

Fun fact - Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara, and Randy Arozarena have all been All-Stars. Unfortunately the Cardinals didn't hang on to them.

Brendan Donovan has been an All-Star. Masyn Winn will probably be an All-Star.

I'm sure I'm probably forgetting others.

So - yeah, it is entirely possible for a team's farm system to develop multiple All-Stars over a relatively short period of time.

Having 3+ All-Star level, or at least borderline All-Star level, young players who are in their pre-ARB or ARB years on your roster is certainly achievable. That and other 7 or so just solid young players who can be average ML regulars is what they need.

All other bad deals aside, it’s amazing how the latter MO era would look completely different without the Ozuna and Libby deals.

Talent evaluation is so important. Also important is to know that a perceived surplus at a position may not be one—-especially when the surplus are all unprovens