Rebuilding Checklist

[sikeston bulldog2]

There will still be people who resist this path and insist Bill is just cheap all we have to do is patch the holes now with free agents and we are gold.

Do you think this provides a way back, and then a path to sustainability.

[2ninr]

There will still be people who resist this path and insist Bill is just cheap all we have to do is patch the holes now with free agents and we are gold.

Do you think this provides a way back, and then a path to sustainability.

I don't. No. Matt lays it out for the near future. But we still have to build a pipeline that evaluates talent, especially pitching, to supply the major league club. We (hopefully) won't be drafting in a position where we can pick guys like JJ and Doyle. We have to find those guys elsewhere.

[mattmitchl44]

There will still be people who resist this path and insist Bill is just cheap all we have to do is patch the holes now with free agents and we are gold.

Some people want to believe that Bloom can go out and beat the FA market by spending $75 million and getting 20 or 25 fWAR for it. But that's as hard, or harder, to do than going out and acquiring prospects that will be successful.

But it fits their narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing FAs even when everybody has a ton of reliable information about just how good a FA will or will not likely be.

[BrockFloodMaris]

There will still be people who resist this path and insist Bill is just cheap all we have to do is patch the holes now with free agents and we are gold.

Do you think this provides a way back, and then a path to sustainability.

I don't. No. Matt lays it out for the near future. But we still have to build a pipeline that evaluates talent, especially pitching, to supply the major league club. We (hopefully) won't be drafting in a position where we can pick guys like JJ and Doyle. We have to find those guys elsewhere.

Yes, Matt does lay it out for the near term. For the long term, we need to become like the Rays who picked our pocket for Randy A. Smarter, quicker, more nimble, more creative than the average bear.

[sikeston bulldog2]

There will still be people who resist this path and insist Bill is just cheap all we have to do is patch the holes now with free agents and we are gold.

Do you think this provides a way back, and then a path to sustainability.

I don't. No. Matt lays it out for the near future. But we still have to build a pipeline that evaluates talent, especially pitching, to supply the major league club. We (hopefully) won't be drafting in a position where we can pick guys like JJ and Doyle. We have to find those guys elsewhere.

Yes, Matt does lay it out for the near term. For the long term, we need to become like the Rays who picked our pocket for Randy A. Smarter, quicker, more nimble, more creative than the average bear.

So my question was- does it provide a way back. The response is mixed with bear term being the key word. What about sustainment.

[2ninr]

There will still be people who resist this path and insist Bill is just cheap all we have to do is patch the holes now with free agents and we are gold.

Do you think this provides a way back, and then a path to sustainability.

I don't. No. Matt lays it out for the near future. But we still have to build a pipeline that evaluates talent, especially pitching, to supply the major league club. We (hopefully) won't be drafting in a position where we can pick guys like JJ and Doyle. We have to find those guys elsewhere.

Yes, Matt does lay it out for the near term. For the long term, we need to become like the Rays who picked our pocket for Randy A. Smarter, quicker, more nimble, more creative than the average bear.

Exactly. You get it.

[mattmitchl44]

There will still be people who resist this path and insist Bill is just cheap all we have to do is patch the holes now with free agents and we are gold.

Do you think this provides a way back, and then a path to sustainability.

I don't. No. Matt lays it out for the near future. But we still have to build a pipeline that evaluates talent, especially pitching, to supply the major league club. We (hopefully) won't be drafting in a position where we can pick guys like JJ and Doyle. We have to find those guys elsewhere.

Yes, you have to get to this place I describe first and then you have to sustain it by having a healthy minor league system delivering about three new successful rookies every year.

[sikeston bulldog2]

There will still be people who resist this path and insist Bill is just cheap all we have to do is patch the holes now with free agents and we are gold.

Do you think this provides a way back, and then a path to sustainability.

I don't. No. Matt lays it out for the near future. But we still have to build a pipeline that evaluates talent, especially pitching, to supply the major league club. We (hopefully) won't be drafting in a position where we can pick guys like JJ and Doyle. We have to find those guys elsewhere.

Yes, you have to get to this place I describe first and then you have to sustain it by having a healthy minor league system delivering about three new successful rookies every year.

Key words- three successful and yearly. That’s strong.

[2ninr]

There will still be people who resist this path and insist Bill is just cheap all we have to do is patch the holes now with free agents and we are gold.

Do you think this provides a way back, and then a path to sustainability.

I don't. No. Matt lays it out for the near future. But we still have to build a pipeline that evaluates talent, especially pitching, to supply the major league club. We (hopefully) won't be drafting in a position where we can pick guys like JJ and Doyle. We have to find those guys elsewhere.

Yes, you have to get to this place I describe first and then you have to sustain it by having a healthy minor league system delivering about three new successful rookies every year.

Key words- three successful and yearly. That’s strong.

It can be done Dog. You just can't be impatient and cut corners. You can see where we are at when we have to pay for all of our pitching. The rest of our roster pays the bill.

[Goldfan]

And to be clear, this is how you reliably get to 25-30 fWAR from these 18 pre-ARB/ARB players so that you can take the rest of your $170, $180 million payroll and try to go find 8 full market cost veterans to give you another 14-16 fWAR (at $8-$10 million per fWAR).

That will give you the talent to be in the low 90s in wins.

Ok the model is layed out. Does the pool of players respective to each catagory listed, exist to support this and every teams model.

Seems you need several pools to fish from, but all are ankle deep.

Right now I'm only concerned with the Cardinals pool.

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

That's how the Cardinals fill up their pool as best they can to try to get to where they need to be by the end of 2027 or 2028.

The problem is you never know if these prospects will perform at the ML level…….
You seem to be just ignoring whats in the starting lineup Right Now and worried about some time 5yrs into the future Hoping prospects fill out your list
What are these players today in WAR land?
JJ
Winn
Herrera
WC
Burly

[ecleme22]

My rebuilding checklist:
1. Accumulate prospects from trades using good talent evaluation and scouting. This will also lower payroll.
2. Sign vets to one year deals for 2026. If it makes sense, flip them at the deadline to accumulate more prospects.
3. By next year's offseason, we will have a clearer idea of what we need. From there, we start adding FA to multi-year deals. Also, if it makes sense, we trade like a Burleson for something we need. We avoid trading multiple prospects for a veteran (see Ozuna).
4. We never take our eye off the ball on accumulating and nurturing prospects. (See the Josh Hader Brewers trade a few years back).

That's it...

[mattmitchl44]

And to be clear, this is how you reliably get to 25-30 fWAR from these 18 pre-ARB/ARB players so that you can take the rest of your $170, $180 million payroll and try to go find 8 full market cost veterans to give you another 14-16 fWAR (at $8-$10 million per fWAR).

That will give you the talent to be in the low 90s in wins.

Ok the model is layed out. Does the pool of players respective to each catagory listed, exist to support this and every teams model.

Seems you need several pools to fish from, but all are ankle deep.

Right now I'm only concerned with the Cardinals pool.

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

That's how the Cardinals fill up their pool as best they can to try to get to where they need to be by the end of 2027 or 2028.

The problem is you never know if these prospects will perform at the ML level…….
You seem to be just ignoring whats in the starting lineup Right Now and worried about some time 5yrs into the future Hoping prospects fill out your list
What are these players today in WAR land?
JJ
Winn
Herrera
WC
Burly

I've specifically laid out in the OP what is in the lineup right now in terms of young cost controlled talent. It's not enough to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc. in 2026. And it most likely won't be enough in 2027.

It's probably going to take Wetherholt and Doyle realize their potential in 2028.

[Goldfan]

And to be clear, this is how you reliably get to 25-30 fWAR from these 18 pre-ARB/ARB players so that you can take the rest of your $170, $180 million payroll and try to go find 8 full market cost veterans to give you another 14-16 fWAR (at $8-$10 million per fWAR).

That will give you the talent to be in the low 90s in wins.

Ok the model is layed out. Does the pool of players respective to each catagory listed, exist to support this and every teams model.

Seems you need several pools to fish from, but all are ankle deep.

Right now I'm only concerned with the Cardinals pool.

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

That's how the Cardinals fill up their pool as best they can to try to get to where they need to be by the end of 2027 or 2028.

The problem is you never know if these prospects will perform at the ML level…….
You seem to be just ignoring whats in the starting lineup Right Now and worried about some time 5yrs into the future Hoping prospects fill out your list
What are these players today in WAR land?
JJ
Winn
Herrera
WC
Burly

TGKS. 4.9WAR
JJ
Herrera 2.7WAR
Bellinger 4.9WAR
WC 2.8WAR
Burly 2.1WAR
Winn 3.5WAR
Gorman
Scott
And you’re there……in no way negates or impacts building the minors

Sign a FA SP
Return a SP for Gray, Donny, Noot, Romero
Libby
McGreevey
Leahy
Go compete for NL Central….bring butts back to Busch…..and continue building farm….walk and chew guy at same time
Fans aren’t going to wait 4-5yrs HOPING the farm produces a contending ML club…..and if that falls short….you’re starting that process over again

[mattmitchl44]

And to be clear, this is how you reliably get to 25-30 fWAR from these 18 pre-ARB/ARB players so that you can take the rest of your $170, $180 million payroll and try to go find 8 full market cost veterans to give you another 14-16 fWAR (at $8-$10 million per fWAR).

That will give you the talent to be in the low 90s in wins.

Ok the model is layed out. Does the pool of players respective to each catagory listed, exist to support this and every teams model.

Seems you need several pools to fish from, but all are ankle deep.

Right now I'm only concerned with the Cardinals pool.

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

That's how the Cardinals fill up their pool as best they can to try to get to where they need to be by the end of 2027 or 2028.

The problem is you never know if these prospects will perform at the ML level…….
You seem to be just ignoring whats in the starting lineup Right Now and worried about some time 5yrs into the future Hoping prospects fill out your list
What are these players today in WAR land?
JJ
Winn
Herrera
WC
Burly

TGKS. 4.9WAR
JJ
Herrera 2.7WAR
Bellinger 4.9WAR
WC 2.8WAR
Burly 2.1WAR
Winn 3.5WAR
Gorman
Scott
And you’re there……in no way negates or impacts building the minors

Sign a FA SP
Return a SP for Gray, Donny, Noot, Romero
Libby
McGreevey
Leahy
Go compete for NL Central….bring butts back to Busch…..and continue building farm….walk and chew guy at same time
Fans aren’t going to wait 4-5yrs HOPING the farm produces a contending ML club…..and if that falls short….you’re starting that process over again

Other than the obvious that you're adding like $75 million to the payroll, and you don't know that you can even get the FAs you have picked out, you can't confidently write in Schwarber, Bellinger, etc. as 5 WAR players into their 30s.

And you are probably still not a 40 fWAR roster, especially not minus Gray and Donovan. Subtracting them takes you down to about 23. So making up 17 is a lot when you can't expect all of your adds to have career years. And then you expect to decline from there as your veteran FA adds get older.

[Goldfan]

And to be clear, this is how you reliably get to 25-30 fWAR from these 18 pre-ARB/ARB players so that you can take the rest of your $170, $180 million payroll and try to go find 8 full market cost veterans to give you another 14-16 fWAR (at $8-$10 million per fWAR).

That will give you the talent to be in the low 90s in wins.

Ok the model is layed out. Does the pool of players respective to each catagory listed, exist to support this and every teams model.

Seems you need several pools to fish from, but all are ankle deep.

Right now I'm only concerned with the Cardinals pool.

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

That's how the Cardinals fill up their pool as best they can to try to get to where they need to be by the end of 2027 or 2028.

The problem is you never know if these prospects will perform at the ML level…….
You seem to be just ignoring whats in the starting lineup Right Now and worried about some time 5yrs into the future Hoping prospects fill out your list
What are these players today in WAR land?
JJ
Winn
Herrera
WC
Burly

TGKS. 4.9WAR
JJ
Herrera 2.7WAR
Bellinger 4.9WAR
WC 2.8WAR
Burly 2.1WAR
Winn 3.5WAR
Gorman
Scott
And you’re there……in no way negates or impacts building the minors

Sign a FA SP
Return a SP for Gray, Donny, Noot, Romero
Libby
McGreevey
Leahy
Go compete for NL Central….bring butts back to Busch…..and continue building farm….walk and chew guy at same time
Fans aren’t going to wait 4-5yrs HOPING the farm produces a contending ML club…..and if that falls short….you’re starting that process over again

Other than the obvious that you're adding like $75 million to the payroll, and you don't know that you can even get the FAs you have picked out, you can't confidently write in Schwarber, Bellinger, etc. as 5 WAR players into their 30s.

And you are probably still not a 40 fWAR roster, especially not minus Gray and Donovan. Subtracting them takes you down to about 23. So making up 17 is a lot when you can't expect all of your adds to have career years. And then you expect to decline from there as your veteran FA adds get older.

Matt you get way too caught up in this WAR nonsense. I’m adding 70HR and 200RBI and you’re stating that the subtraction of Donny will offset that??
Gray had 4.28 ERA this last season and He’s going on 37

TGKS OBP .365, 40HR
JJ .350, 15-20HR
Herrera .373, 25-30HR
Bellinger.340 30HR
WC .344 25HR
Burly .343 20HR

Playoffs

[mattmitchl44]

And to be clear, this is how you reliably get to 25-30 fWAR from these 18 pre-ARB/ARB players so that you can take the rest of your $170, $180 million payroll and try to go find 8 full market cost veterans to give you another 14-16 fWAR (at $8-$10 million per fWAR).

That will give you the talent to be in the low 90s in wins.

Ok the model is layed out. Does the pool of players respective to each catagory listed, exist to support this and every teams model.

Seems you need several pools to fish from, but all are ankle deep.

Right now I'm only concerned with the Cardinals pool.

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

That's how the Cardinals fill up their pool as best they can to try to get to where they need to be by the end of 2027 or 2028.

The problem is you never know if these prospects will perform at the ML level…….
You seem to be just ignoring whats in the starting lineup Right Now and worried about some time 5yrs into the future Hoping prospects fill out your list
What are these players today in WAR land?
JJ
Winn
Herrera
WC
Burly

TGKS. 4.9WAR
JJ
Herrera 2.7WAR
Bellinger 4.9WAR
WC 2.8WAR
Burly 2.1WAR
Winn 3.5WAR
Gorman
Scott
And you’re there……in no way negates or impacts building the minors

Sign a FA SP
Return a SP for Gray, Donny, Noot, Romero
Libby
McGreevey
Leahy
Go compete for NL Central….bring butts back to Busch…..and continue building farm….walk and chew guy at same time
Fans aren’t going to wait 4-5yrs HOPING the farm produces a contending ML club…..and if that falls short….you’re starting that process over again

Other than the obvious that you're adding like $75 million to the payroll, and you don't know that you can even get the FAs you have picked out, you can't confidently write in Schwarber, Bellinger, etc. as 5 WAR players into their 30s.

And you are probably still not a 40 fWAR roster, especially not minus Gray and Donovan. Subtracting them takes you down to about 23. So making up 17 is a lot when you can't expect all of your adds to have career years. And then you expect to decline from there as your veteran FA adds get older.

Matt you get way too caught up in this WAR nonsense. I’m adding 70HR and 200RBI and you’re stating that the subtraction of Donny will offset that??
Gray had 4.28 ERA this last season and He’s going on 37

TGKS OBP .365, 40HR
JJ .350, 15-20HR
Herrera .373, 25-30HR
Bellinger.340 30HR
WC .344 25HR
Burly .343 20HR

Playoffs

You're basically just building another Goldschmidt-Arenado centric team, this time with Schwarber-Bellinger, which couldn't get out of the 1st round of the playoffs without addressing the lack of depth throughout the rest of the roster.