Rebuilding Checklist

[mattmitchl44]

You think the Bloom farm will produce players better than

As I stated in the OP, the "Bloom farm" needs to actually matriculate Wetherholt, Doyle, and others to St. Louis AND have them start to realize their potential before this team is ready to compete again.

Until Wetherholt and Doyle are ACTUALLY being 3 or 4 fWAR players in St. Louis, they aren't ready to compete.

And Wetherholt and Doyle are almost certainly NOT going to be that in 2026, and probably not yet even in 2027.

JJ can be a contributor in ‘26…..no idea about Doyle

I didn't say Wetherholt wouldn't contribute in 2026. I said you couldn't count on him to be a ~4 fWAR player right out of the gate his rookie year. More likely it will take him until 2027 or 2028 before he establishes himself at that level. Same with Doyle, if he arrives in 2027, he probably doesn't establish himself as a front of rotation SP until 2028.

Obviously you can’t rely on ANY player to put up the expected stat line…..buy I’ll always take my chances with the proven than the unproven.
We have a pretty good idea what the 5 will do in the lineup I posted. We have a pretty good idea what TGKS and Bellinger will do
There is only upside with Gorman and Scott.
Spend some money and get fans back to Busch. This in no way impedes your plan but you will lose fandom is this stench of mediocrity runs another 4-5yrs

Again, even if you add Schwarber and Bellinger, you don't have enough talent on the roster to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc. unless you ALSO have Wetherholt and Doyle being ~4 fWAR players.

I don't disagree that they will EVENTUALLY have to potentially add a couple of 4-5 fWAR players as FAs, but if you add Schwarber now, by the time Wetherhold and Doyle actually are ~4 fWAR players in 2028, 2029, Schwarber could very well be a 1 fWAR player instead of a 4-5 fWAR player. But you'll still be paying him like a 4-5 fWAR player.

Bellinger has gone 1.5, 4.4, 2.1, 4.9 fWAR the last four years. So he's far from a sure thing to repeat his 4.9 fWAR from last year (FG predicts 2.7 to 3.0 fWAR).

Schwarber has gone 2.2, 0.9, 3.3, 4.9 fWAR the last four years. So he's far from a sure thing to repeat his 4.9 fWAR from last year (FG predicts 2.7 to 3.0 fWAR).

I disagree, Herrera had 19HR, 70RBI in 348 ABs
You get WC to stay healthy with TGKS and Bellinger, the offense will score

Here's what the FG projections currently have:

Adding Schwarber: +2.7 to +3.0 fWAR
Adding Bellinger: +2.7 to +3.0 fWAR
Adding F. Valdez: +3.7 fWAR

Subtracting Gray: -4.0 fWAR
Subtracting Donovan: -3.0 to -3.1 fWAR
Subtracting Arenado: -1.7 to -1.9 fWAR

Net from just those changes: about +1 fWAR at the high end

Even if it were +4 or +5 fWAR, that's not enough to add to a 78 win team from 2025 to make them competitive now. You still need another +8 or +10 fWAR from Wetherholt, Doyle and others to make up the difference.

[Goldfan]

You think the Bloom farm will produce players better than

As I stated in the OP, the "Bloom farm" needs to actually matriculate Wetherholt, Doyle, and others to St. Louis AND have them start to realize their potential before this team is ready to compete again.

Until Wetherholt and Doyle are ACTUALLY being 3 or 4 fWAR players in St. Louis, they aren't ready to compete.

And Wetherholt and Doyle are almost certainly NOT going to be that in 2026, and probably not yet even in 2027.

JJ can be a contributor in ‘26…..no idea about Doyle

I didn't say Wetherholt wouldn't contribute in 2026. I said you couldn't count on him to be a ~4 fWAR player right out of the gate his rookie year. More likely it will take him until 2027 or 2028 before he establishes himself at that level. Same with Doyle, if he arrives in 2027, he probably doesn't establish himself as a front of rotation SP until 2028.

Obviously you can’t rely on ANY player to put up the expected stat line…..buy I’ll always take my chances with the proven than the unproven.
We have a pretty good idea what the 5 will do in the lineup I posted. We have a pretty good idea what TGKS and Bellinger will do
There is only upside with Gorman and Scott.
Spend some money and get fans back to Busch. This in no way impedes your plan but you will lose fandom is this stench of mediocrity runs another 4-5yrs

Again, even if you add Schwarber and Bellinger, you don't have enough talent on the roster to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc. unless you ALSO have Wetherholt and Doyle being ~4 fWAR players.

I don't disagree that they will EVENTUALLY have to potentially add a couple of 4-5 fWAR players as FAs, but if you add Schwarber now, by the time Wetherhold and Doyle actually are ~4 fWAR players in 2028, 2029, Schwarber could very well be a 1 fWAR player instead of a 4-5 fWAR player. But you'll still be paying him like a 4-5 fWAR player.

Bellinger has gone 1.5, 4.4, 2.1, 4.9 fWAR the last four years. So he's far from a sure thing to repeat his 4.9 fWAR from last year (FG predicts 2.7 to 3.0 fWAR).

Schwarber has gone 2.2, 0.9, 3.3, 4.9 fWAR the last four years. So he's far from a sure thing to repeat his 4.9 fWAR from last year (FG predicts 2.7 to 3.0 fWAR).

I disagree, Herrera had 19HR, 70RBI in 348 ABs
You get WC to stay healthy with TGKS and Bellinger, the offense will score

Here's what the FG projections currently have:

Adding Schwarber: +2.7 to +3.0 fWAR
Adding Bellinger: +2.7 to +3.0 fWAR
Adding F. Valdez: +3.7 fWAR

Subtracting Gray: -4.0 fWAR
Subtracting Donovan: -3.0 to -3.1 fWAR
Subtracting Arenado: -1.7 to -1.9 fWAR

Net from just those changes: about +1 fWAR at the high end

Even if it were +4 or +5 fWAR, that's not enough to add to a 78 win team from 2025 to make them competitive now. You still need another +8 or +10 fWAR from Wetherholt, Doyle and others to make up the difference.

Well I don’t even know why we play the games…..Projections
If you think Donny and NA come close to equalling TGKS/Bellinger I’ve got some quantum computing stocks to sell you

[CCard]

This has been buried in other threads, but I'll give it its own airtime.

Here's is my checklist of when you'll know the Cardinals have amassed a critical mass of young talent (pre-ARB year and ARB year players) to be ready to think about adding by aggressively, but selectively, adding expensive talent from outside the organization to be able to compete with the Dodgers, etc. again.

1. a ~4 fWAR position player (i.e., borderline A-S) - M. Winn
2. a ~4 fWAR position player - ?
3. a ~3.5 to 4 fWAR starting pitcher (i.e., front of rotation SP) - ?

4. a 2+ fWAR position player (i.e., solid, league average player) - I. Herrera
5. a 2+ fWAR position player - A. Burleson
6. a 2+ fWAR position player - B. Donovan (unless traded)
7. a 2+ fWAR position player - ? (if V. Scott improves, he might slide into this spot)
8. a 2+ fWAR position player - ?
9. a 2+ fWAR SP (#4/#3 SP) - ? (if M. Liberatore improves, he will probably slide into this spot)
10. a 2+ fWAR SP - ?

11. a ML average bench player - ? (if T. Saggese improves he will probably slide into this spot)
12. a ML average bench player - ? (you could say P. Pages fills this)
13. a ML average bench player - ?
14. a ML average middle reliever - R. O'Brien if he builds on last year
15. a ML average middle reliever - G. Graceffo if he builds on last year (was better than his ERA)
16. a ML average middle reliever - M. Svanson
17. a ML average middle reliever - J. Romero (unless traded)
18. a ML average middle reliever - ? (maybe Pallante could move into this slot if he goes to the bullpen)

The most immediate hopes over the next couple of years would be:

JJ Wetherholt develops and fills slot (2.)
L. Doyle develops and fills slot (3.)
V. Scott improves and locks down slot (7.)
N. Gorman and/or J. Walker (or Nootbaar) turn it around and fill slot (8.) [and maybe they need to fill slot (6.) if Donovan is traded]
M. McGreevy develops and fills slot (10.)
and finding two or three more average bench players or middle relievers

So their timeline for when this "rebuild" will have been successful is likely determined by when Wetherholt and Doyle can make it to the majors and be those young, borderline A-S players needed at the top of this list.

But this is kind of the minimum that needs to happen for them to potentially assemble a roster 90, 92, 94 win talent that could really challenge the big market teams.

That sure is a lot of "Ifs" in your checklist. LOL Tell us, how many years must we suffer until this "critical mass" happens? And if there's some bad luck with injuries and poor play, how many more years must we wait? LOL

[Goldfan]

You think the Bloom farm will produce players better than

As I stated in the OP, the "Bloom farm" needs to actually matriculate Wetherholt, Doyle, and others to St. Louis AND have them start to realize their potential before this team is ready to compete again.

Until Wetherholt and Doyle are ACTUALLY being 3 or 4 fWAR players in St. Louis, they aren't ready to compete.

And Wetherholt and Doyle are almost certainly NOT going to be that in 2026, and probably not yet even in 2027.

JJ can be a contributor in ‘26…..no idea about Doyle

I didn't say Wetherholt wouldn't contribute in 2026. I said you couldn't count on him to be a ~4 fWAR player right out of the gate his rookie year. More likely it will take him until 2027 or 2028 before he establishes himself at that level. Same with Doyle, if he arrives in 2027, he probably doesn't establish himself as a front of rotation SP until 2028.

Obviously you can’t rely on ANY player to put up the expected stat line…..buy I’ll always take my chances with the proven than the unproven.
We have a pretty good idea what the 5 will do in the lineup I posted. We have a pretty good idea what TGKS and Bellinger will do
There is only upside with Gorman and Scott.
Spend some money and get fans back to Busch. This in no way impedes your plan but you will lose fandom is this stench of mediocrity runs another 4-5yrs

Again, even if you add Schwarber and Bellinger, you don't have enough talent on the roster to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc. unless you ALSO have Wetherholt and Doyle being ~4 fWAR players.

I don't disagree that they will EVENTUALLY have to potentially add a couple of 4-5 fWAR players as FAs, but if you add Schwarber now, by the time Wetherhold and Doyle actually are ~4 fWAR players in 2028, 2029, Schwarber could very well be a 1 fWAR player instead of a 4-5 fWAR player. But you'll still be paying him like a 4-5 fWAR player.

Bellinger has gone 1.5, 4.4, 2.1, 4.9 fWAR the last four years. So he's far from a sure thing to repeat his 4.9 fWAR from last year (FG predicts 2.7 to 3.0 fWAR).

Schwarber has gone 2.2, 0.9, 3.3, 4.9 fWAR the last four years. So he's far from a sure thing to repeat his 4.9 fWAR from last year (FG predicts 2.7 to 3.0 fWAR).

I disagree, Herrera had 19HR, 70RBI in 348 ABs
You get WC to stay healthy with TGKS and Bellinger, the offense will score

Here's what the FG projections currently have:

Adding Schwarber: +2.7 to +3.0 fWAR
Adding Bellinger: +2.7 to +3.0 fWAR
Adding F. Valdez: +3.7 fWAR

Subtracting Gray: -4.0 fWAR
Subtracting Donovan: -3.0 to -3.1 fWAR
Subtracting Arenado: -1.7 to -1.9 fWAR

Net from just those changes: about +1 fWAR at the high end

Even if it were +4 or +5 fWAR, that's not enough to add to a 78 win team from 2025 to make them competitive now. You still need another +8 or +10 fWAR from Wetherholt, Doyle and others to make up the difference.

Well I don’t even know why we play the games…..Projections
If you think Donny and NA come close to equalling TGKS/Bellinger I’ve got some quantum computing stocks to sell you

.287, .775, 10HR, 50RBI
.237, .666, 12HR, 52RBI

.272, .813, 29HR, 98RBI
.240, .928, 56HR, 132RBI
Come on Matt…….the real game impact of those stat lines is obvious

[mattmitchl44]

You think the Bloom farm will produce players better than

As I stated in the OP, the "Bloom farm" needs to actually matriculate Wetherholt, Doyle, and others to St. Louis AND have them start to realize their potential before this team is ready to compete again.

Until Wetherholt and Doyle are ACTUALLY being 3 or 4 fWAR players in St. Louis, they aren't ready to compete.

And Wetherholt and Doyle are almost certainly NOT going to be that in 2026, and probably not yet even in 2027.

JJ can be a contributor in ‘26…..no idea about Doyle

I didn't say Wetherholt wouldn't contribute in 2026. I said you couldn't count on him to be a ~4 fWAR player right out of the gate his rookie year. More likely it will take him until 2027 or 2028 before he establishes himself at that level. Same with Doyle, if he arrives in 2027, he probably doesn't establish himself as a front of rotation SP until 2028.

Obviously you can’t rely on ANY player to put up the expected stat line…..buy I’ll always take my chances with the proven than the unproven.
We have a pretty good idea what the 5 will do in the lineup I posted. We have a pretty good idea what TGKS and Bellinger will do
There is only upside with Gorman and Scott.
Spend some money and get fans back to Busch. This in no way impedes your plan but you will lose fandom is this stench of mediocrity runs another 4-5yrs

Again, even if you add Schwarber and Bellinger, you don't have enough talent on the roster to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc. unless you ALSO have Wetherholt and Doyle being ~4 fWAR players.

I don't disagree that they will EVENTUALLY have to potentially add a couple of 4-5 fWAR players as FAs, but if you add Schwarber now, by the time Wetherhold and Doyle actually are ~4 fWAR players in 2028, 2029, Schwarber could very well be a 1 fWAR player instead of a 4-5 fWAR player. But you'll still be paying him like a 4-5 fWAR player.

Bellinger has gone 1.5, 4.4, 2.1, 4.9 fWAR the last four years. So he's far from a sure thing to repeat his 4.9 fWAR from last year (FG predicts 2.7 to 3.0 fWAR).

Schwarber has gone 2.2, 0.9, 3.3, 4.9 fWAR the last four years. So he's far from a sure thing to repeat his 4.9 fWAR from last year (FG predicts 2.7 to 3.0 fWAR).

I disagree, Herrera had 19HR, 70RBI in 348 ABs
You get WC to stay healthy with TGKS and Bellinger, the offense will score

Here's what the FG projections currently have:

Adding Schwarber: +2.7 to +3.0 fWAR
Adding Bellinger: +2.7 to +3.0 fWAR
Adding F. Valdez: +3.7 fWAR

Subtracting Gray: -4.0 fWAR
Subtracting Donovan: -3.0 to -3.1 fWAR
Subtracting Arenado: -1.7 to -1.9 fWAR

Net from just those changes: about +1 fWAR at the high end

Even if it were +4 or +5 fWAR, that's not enough to add to a 78 win team from 2025 to make them competitive now. You still need another +8 or +10 fWAR from Wetherholt, Doyle and others to make up the difference.

Well I don’t even know why we play the games…..Projections
If you think Donny and NA come close to equalling TGKS/Bellinger I’ve got some quantum computing stocks to sell you

The projections, obviously, don't just assume that Schwarber and Bellinger are automatically going to repeat their 2025 seasons.

[mattmitchl44]

This has been buried in other threads, but I'll give it its own airtime.

Here's is my checklist of when you'll know the Cardinals have amassed a critical mass of young talent (pre-ARB year and ARB year players) to be ready to think about adding by aggressively, but selectively, adding expensive talent from outside the organization to be able to compete with the Dodgers, etc. again.

1. a ~4 fWAR position player (i.e., borderline A-S) - M. Winn
2. a ~4 fWAR position player - ?
3. a ~3.5 to 4 fWAR starting pitcher (i.e., front of rotation SP) - ?

4. a 2+ fWAR position player (i.e., solid, league average player) - I. Herrera
5. a 2+ fWAR position player - A. Burleson
6. a 2+ fWAR position player - B. Donovan (unless traded)
7. a 2+ fWAR position player - ? (if V. Scott improves, he might slide into this spot)
8. a 2+ fWAR position player - ?
9. a 2+ fWAR SP (#4/#3 SP) - ? (if M. Liberatore improves, he will probably slide into this spot)
10. a 2+ fWAR SP - ?

11. a ML average bench player - ? (if T. Saggese improves he will probably slide into this spot)
12. a ML average bench player - ? (you could say P. Pages fills this)
13. a ML average bench player - ?
14. a ML average middle reliever - R. O'Brien if he builds on last year
15. a ML average middle reliever - G. Graceffo if he builds on last year (was better than his ERA)
16. a ML average middle reliever - M. Svanson
17. a ML average middle reliever - J. Romero (unless traded)
18. a ML average middle reliever - ? (maybe Pallante could move into this slot if he goes to the bullpen)

The most immediate hopes over the next couple of years would be:

JJ Wetherholt develops and fills slot (2.)
L. Doyle develops and fills slot (3.)
V. Scott improves and locks down slot (7.)
N. Gorman and/or J. Walker (or Nootbaar) turn it around and fill slot (8.) [and maybe they need to fill slot (6.) if Donovan is traded]
M. McGreevy develops and fills slot (10.)
and finding two or three more average bench players or middle relievers

So their timeline for when this "rebuild" will have been successful is likely determined by when Wetherholt and Doyle can make it to the majors and be those young, borderline A-S players needed at the top of this list.

But this is kind of the minimum that needs to happen for them to potentially assemble a roster 90, 92, 94 win talent that could really challenge the big market teams.

That sure is a lot of "Ifs" in your checklist. LOL Tell us, how many years must we suffer until this "critical mass" happens? And if there's some bad luck with injuries and poor play, how many more years must we wait? LOL

As I already noted:

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

The priority is to add more prospects so you achieve that critical mass even if/when some fail.

[mattmitchl44]

You think the Bloom farm will produce players better than

As I stated in the OP, the "Bloom farm" needs to actually matriculate Wetherholt, Doyle, and others to St. Louis AND have them start to realize their potential before this team is ready to compete again.

Until Wetherholt and Doyle are ACTUALLY being 3 or 4 fWAR players in St. Louis, they aren't ready to compete.

And Wetherholt and Doyle are almost certainly NOT going to be that in 2026, and probably not yet even in 2027.

JJ can be a contributor in ‘26…..no idea about Doyle

I didn't say Wetherholt wouldn't contribute in 2026. I said you couldn't count on him to be a ~4 fWAR player right out of the gate his rookie year. More likely it will take him until 2027 or 2028 before he establishes himself at that level. Same with Doyle, if he arrives in 2027, he probably doesn't establish himself as a front of rotation SP until 2028.

Obviously you can’t rely on ANY player to put up the expected stat line…..buy I’ll always take my chances with the proven than the unproven.
We have a pretty good idea what the 5 will do in the lineup I posted. We have a pretty good idea what TGKS and Bellinger will do
There is only upside with Gorman and Scott.
Spend some money and get fans back to Busch. This in no way impedes your plan but you will lose fandom is this stench of mediocrity runs another 4-5yrs

Again, even if you add Schwarber and Bellinger, you don't have enough talent on the roster to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc. unless you ALSO have Wetherholt and Doyle being ~4 fWAR players.

I don't disagree that they will EVENTUALLY have to potentially add a couple of 4-5 fWAR players as FAs, but if you add Schwarber now, by the time Wetherhold and Doyle actually are ~4 fWAR players in 2028, 2029, Schwarber could very well be a 1 fWAR player instead of a 4-5 fWAR player. But you'll still be paying him like a 4-5 fWAR player.

Bellinger has gone 1.5, 4.4, 2.1, 4.9 fWAR the last four years. So he's far from a sure thing to repeat his 4.9 fWAR from last year (FG predicts 2.7 to 3.0 fWAR).

Schwarber has gone 2.2, 0.9, 3.3, 4.9 fWAR the last four years. So he's far from a sure thing to repeat his 4.9 fWAR from last year (FG predicts 2.7 to 3.0 fWAR).

I disagree, Herrera had 19HR, 70RBI in 348 ABs
You get WC to stay healthy with TGKS and Bellinger, the offense will score

Here's what the FG projections currently have:

Adding Schwarber: +2.7 to +3.0 fWAR
Adding Bellinger: +2.7 to +3.0 fWAR
Adding F. Valdez: +3.7 fWAR

Subtracting Gray: -4.0 fWAR
Subtracting Donovan: -3.0 to -3.1 fWAR
Subtracting Arenado: -1.7 to -1.9 fWAR

Net from just those changes: about +1 fWAR at the high end

Even if it were +4 or +5 fWAR, that's not enough to add to a 78 win team from 2025 to make them competitive now. You still need another +8 or +10 fWAR from Wetherholt, Doyle and others to make up the difference.

Well I don’t even know why we play the games…..Projections
If you think Donny and NA come close to equalling TGKS/Bellinger I’ve got some quantum computing stocks to sell you

.287, .775, 10HR, 50RBI
.237, .666, 12HR, 52RBI

.272, .813, 29HR, 98RBI
.240, .928, 56HR, 132RBI
Come on Matt…….the real game impact of those stat lines is obvious

And what happens if Schwarber regresses to his 2023 (.197/.343/.474) and Bellinger regresses to his 2024 (.266/.325/.426) after you've invested $50 million a year in them???

[Goldfan]

You think the Bloom farm will produce players better than

As I stated in the OP, the "Bloom farm" needs to actually matriculate Wetherholt, Doyle, and others to St. Louis AND have them start to realize their potential before this team is ready to compete again.

Until Wetherholt and Doyle are ACTUALLY being 3 or 4 fWAR players in St. Louis, they aren't ready to compete.

And Wetherholt and Doyle are almost certainly NOT going to be that in 2026, and probably not yet even in 2027.

JJ can be a contributor in ‘26…..no idea about Doyle

I didn't say Wetherholt wouldn't contribute in 2026. I said you couldn't count on him to be a ~4 fWAR player right out of the gate his rookie year. More likely it will take him until 2027 or 2028 before he establishes himself at that level. Same with Doyle, if he arrives in 2027, he probably doesn't establish himself as a front of rotation SP until 2028.

Obviously you can’t rely on ANY player to put up the expected stat line…..buy I’ll always take my chances with the proven than the unproven.
We have a pretty good idea what the 5 will do in the lineup I posted. We have a pretty good idea what TGKS and Bellinger will do
There is only upside with Gorman and Scott.
Spend some money and get fans back to Busch. This in no way impedes your plan but you will lose fandom is this stench of mediocrity runs another 4-5yrs

Again, even if you add Schwarber and Bellinger, you don't have enough talent on the roster to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc. unless you ALSO have Wetherholt and Doyle being ~4 fWAR players.

I don't disagree that they will EVENTUALLY have to potentially add a couple of 4-5 fWAR players as FAs, but if you add Schwarber now, by the time Wetherhold and Doyle actually are ~4 fWAR players in 2028, 2029, Schwarber could very well be a 1 fWAR player instead of a 4-5 fWAR player. But you'll still be paying him like a 4-5 fWAR player.

Bellinger has gone 1.5, 4.4, 2.1, 4.9 fWAR the last four years. So he's far from a sure thing to repeat his 4.9 fWAR from last year (FG predicts 2.7 to 3.0 fWAR).

Schwarber has gone 2.2, 0.9, 3.3, 4.9 fWAR the last four years. So he's far from a sure thing to repeat his 4.9 fWAR from last year (FG predicts 2.7 to 3.0 fWAR).

I disagree, Herrera had 19HR, 70RBI in 348 ABs
You get WC to stay healthy with TGKS and Bellinger, the offense will score

Here's what the FG projections currently have:

Adding Schwarber: +2.7 to +3.0 fWAR
Adding Bellinger: +2.7 to +3.0 fWAR
Adding F. Valdez: +3.7 fWAR

Subtracting Gray: -4.0 fWAR
Subtracting Donovan: -3.0 to -3.1 fWAR
Subtracting Arenado: -1.7 to -1.9 fWAR

Net from just those changes: about +1 fWAR at the high end

Even if it were +4 or +5 fWAR, that's not enough to add to a 78 win team from 2025 to make them competitive now. You still need another +8 or +10 fWAR from Wetherholt, Doyle and others to make up the difference.

Well I don’t even know why we play the games…..Projections
If you think Donny and NA come close to equalling TGKS/Bellinger I’ve got some quantum computing stocks to sell you

The projections, obviously, don't just assume that Schwarber and Bellinger are automatically going to repeat their 2025 seasons.

I hear ya…..TGKS might hit 40 and 120 at Busch…..so like a NA, a Donny, and a Walker

[mattmitchl44]

You think the Bloom farm will produce players better than

As I stated in the OP, the "Bloom farm" needs to actually matriculate Wetherholt, Doyle, and others to St. Louis AND have them start to realize their potential before this team is ready to compete again.

Until Wetherholt and Doyle are ACTUALLY being 3 or 4 fWAR players in St. Louis, they aren't ready to compete.

And Wetherholt and Doyle are almost certainly NOT going to be that in 2026, and probably not yet even in 2027.

JJ can be a contributor in ‘26…..no idea about Doyle

I didn't say Wetherholt wouldn't contribute in 2026. I said you couldn't count on him to be a ~4 fWAR player right out of the gate his rookie year. More likely it will take him until 2027 or 2028 before he establishes himself at that level. Same with Doyle, if he arrives in 2027, he probably doesn't establish himself as a front of rotation SP until 2028.

Obviously you can’t rely on ANY player to put up the expected stat line…..buy I’ll always take my chances with the proven than the unproven.
We have a pretty good idea what the 5 will do in the lineup I posted. We have a pretty good idea what TGKS and Bellinger will do
There is only upside with Gorman and Scott.
Spend some money and get fans back to Busch. This in no way impedes your plan but you will lose fandom is this stench of mediocrity runs another 4-5yrs

Again, even if you add Schwarber and Bellinger, you don't have enough talent on the roster to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc. unless you ALSO have Wetherholt and Doyle being ~4 fWAR players.

I don't disagree that they will EVENTUALLY have to potentially add a couple of 4-5 fWAR players as FAs, but if you add Schwarber now, by the time Wetherhold and Doyle actually are ~4 fWAR players in 2028, 2029, Schwarber could very well be a 1 fWAR player instead of a 4-5 fWAR player. But you'll still be paying him like a 4-5 fWAR player.

Bellinger has gone 1.5, 4.4, 2.1, 4.9 fWAR the last four years. So he's far from a sure thing to repeat his 4.9 fWAR from last year (FG predicts 2.7 to 3.0 fWAR).

Schwarber has gone 2.2, 0.9, 3.3, 4.9 fWAR the last four years. So he's far from a sure thing to repeat his 4.9 fWAR from last year (FG predicts 2.7 to 3.0 fWAR).

I disagree, Herrera had 19HR, 70RBI in 348 ABs
You get WC to stay healthy with TGKS and Bellinger, the offense will score

Here's what the FG projections currently have:

Adding Schwarber: +2.7 to +3.0 fWAR
Adding Bellinger: +2.7 to +3.0 fWAR
Adding F. Valdez: +3.7 fWAR

Subtracting Gray: -4.0 fWAR
Subtracting Donovan: -3.0 to -3.1 fWAR
Subtracting Arenado: -1.7 to -1.9 fWAR

Net from just those changes: about +1 fWAR at the high end

Even if it were +4 or +5 fWAR, that's not enough to add to a 78 win team from 2025 to make them competitive now. You still need another +8 or +10 fWAR from Wetherholt, Doyle and others to make up the difference.

Well I don’t even know why we play the games…..Projections
If you think Donny and NA come close to equalling TGKS/Bellinger I’ve got some quantum computing stocks to sell you

The projections, obviously, don't just assume that Schwarber and Bellinger are automatically going to repeat their 2025 seasons.

I hear ya…..TGKS might hit 40 and 120 at Busch…..so like a NA, a Donny, and a Walker

Would Schwarber be batting in front of Trea Turner and Bryce Harper in the Cardinals lineup?

Would Bellinger still get to play his home games in Yankee Stadium (where he hit .302/.365/.544, while he hit just .241/.301/.414 on the road)?

[CCard]

This has been buried in other threads, but I'll give it its own airtime.

Here's is my checklist of when you'll know the Cardinals have amassed a critical mass of young talent (pre-ARB year and ARB year players) to be ready to think about adding by aggressively, but selectively, adding expensive talent from outside the organization to be able to compete with the Dodgers, etc. again.

1. a ~4 fWAR position player (i.e., borderline A-S) - M. Winn
2. a ~4 fWAR position player - ?
3. a ~3.5 to 4 fWAR starting pitcher (i.e., front of rotation SP) - ?

4. a 2+ fWAR position player (i.e., solid, league average player) - I. Herrera
5. a 2+ fWAR position player - A. Burleson
6. a 2+ fWAR position player - B. Donovan (unless traded)
7. a 2+ fWAR position player - ? (if V. Scott improves, he might slide into this spot)
8. a 2+ fWAR position player - ?
9. a 2+ fWAR SP (#4/#3 SP) - ? (if M. Liberatore improves, he will probably slide into this spot)
10. a 2+ fWAR SP - ?

11. a ML average bench player - ? (if T. Saggese improves he will probably slide into this spot)
12. a ML average bench player - ? (you could say P. Pages fills this)
13. a ML average bench player - ?
14. a ML average middle reliever - R. O'Brien if he builds on last year
15. a ML average middle reliever - G. Graceffo if he builds on last year (was better than his ERA)
16. a ML average middle reliever - M. Svanson
17. a ML average middle reliever - J. Romero (unless traded)
18. a ML average middle reliever - ? (maybe Pallante could move into this slot if he goes to the bullpen)

The most immediate hopes over the next couple of years would be:

JJ Wetherholt develops and fills slot (2.)
L. Doyle develops and fills slot (3.)
V. Scott improves and locks down slot (7.)
N. Gorman and/or J. Walker (or Nootbaar) turn it around and fill slot (8.) [and maybe they need to fill slot (6.) if Donovan is traded]
M. McGreevy develops and fills slot (10.)
and finding two or three more average bench players or middle relievers

So their timeline for when this "rebuild" will have been successful is likely determined by when Wetherholt and Doyle can make it to the majors and be those young, borderline A-S players needed at the top of this list.

But this is kind of the minimum that needs to happen for them to potentially assemble a roster 90, 92, 94 win talent that could really challenge the big market teams.

That sure is a lot of "Ifs" in your checklist. LOL Tell us, how many years must we suffer until this "critical mass" happens? And if there's some bad luck with injuries and poor play, how many more years must we wait? LOL

As I already noted:

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

The priority is to add more prospects so you achieve that critical mass even if/when some fail.

Just for a second, imagine you're the other teams GM. What would you be willing to give for any of those players? Considering the money owed on their contracts, the Cards would have to pay heavily to get any return like you're talking about, so why not just use the premium player then? Also, you're talking about basically lotter tickets. Unproven minor league players with possibilities. The Cards are already covered up with those types of players. What they need is proven talent. A sure top end starter. A proven rbi bat, probably in left field. At least one or two shutdown relievers. This team could be a contender that easily. Instead, they want to lose for years in the hopes of fielding some cheap superstar team that will be broken up a few years in anyway.

[mattmitchl44]

This has been buried in other threads, but I'll give it its own airtime.

Here's is my checklist of when you'll know the Cardinals have amassed a critical mass of young talent (pre-ARB year and ARB year players) to be ready to think about adding by aggressively, but selectively, adding expensive talent from outside the organization to be able to compete with the Dodgers, etc. again.

1. a ~4 fWAR position player (i.e., borderline A-S) - M. Winn
2. a ~4 fWAR position player - ?
3. a ~3.5 to 4 fWAR starting pitcher (i.e., front of rotation SP) - ?

4. a 2+ fWAR position player (i.e., solid, league average player) - I. Herrera
5. a 2+ fWAR position player - A. Burleson
6. a 2+ fWAR position player - B. Donovan (unless traded)
7. a 2+ fWAR position player - ? (if V. Scott improves, he might slide into this spot)
8. a 2+ fWAR position player - ?
9. a 2+ fWAR SP (#4/#3 SP) - ? (if M. Liberatore improves, he will probably slide into this spot)
10. a 2+ fWAR SP - ?

11. a ML average bench player - ? (if T. Saggese improves he will probably slide into this spot)
12. a ML average bench player - ? (you could say P. Pages fills this)
13. a ML average bench player - ?
14. a ML average middle reliever - R. O'Brien if he builds on last year
15. a ML average middle reliever - G. Graceffo if he builds on last year (was better than his ERA)
16. a ML average middle reliever - M. Svanson
17. a ML average middle reliever - J. Romero (unless traded)
18. a ML average middle reliever - ? (maybe Pallante could move into this slot if he goes to the bullpen)

The most immediate hopes over the next couple of years would be:

JJ Wetherholt develops and fills slot (2.)
L. Doyle develops and fills slot (3.)
V. Scott improves and locks down slot (7.)
N. Gorman and/or J. Walker (or Nootbaar) turn it around and fill slot (8.) [and maybe they need to fill slot (6.) if Donovan is traded]
M. McGreevy develops and fills slot (10.)
and finding two or three more average bench players or middle relievers

So their timeline for when this "rebuild" will have been successful is likely determined by when Wetherholt and Doyle can make it to the majors and be those young, borderline A-S players needed at the top of this list.

But this is kind of the minimum that needs to happen for them to potentially assemble a roster 90, 92, 94 win talent that could really challenge the big market teams.

That sure is a lot of "Ifs" in your checklist. LOL Tell us, how many years must we suffer until this "critical mass" happens? And if there's some bad luck with injuries and poor play, how many more years must we wait? LOL

As I already noted:

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

The priority is to add more prospects so you achieve that critical mass even if/when some fail.

Just for a second, imagine you're the other teams GM. What would you be willing to give for any of those players? Considering the money owed on their contracts, the Cards would have to pay heavily to get any return like you're talking about, so why not just use the premium player then? Also, you're talking about basically lotter tickets. Unproven minor league players with possibilities. The Cards are already covered up with those types of players. What they need is proven talent. A sure top end starter. A proven rbi bat, probably in left field. At least one or two shutdown relievers. This team could be a contender that easily. Instead, they want to lose for years in the hopes of fielding some cheap superstar team that will be broken up a few years in anyway.

Yes the Cardinals will have to send substantial money with Gray, Arenado, etc. to get high floor/lower ceiling AA and AAA prospects that project to be solid 2+ fWAR players.

Donovan has considerably more (I think BTV puts him at a +32) trade value. You trade him and a Romero, etc. if need be to get a higher ceiling AA or AAA prospect from a contender wanting to go all in to win now.

And getting Valdez, Bellinger, etc. has already been thrown out and analyzed and it only gets them, in a mostly best case scenario, to high 80s in wins. Not enough talent to compete with LA, PHI, NYM, etc.

People just want to assert that they can just pick up a couple of expensive players and presto instant contender. They've been trying that for at least 5 or 6 years and it keeps not working. And you say what if they have bad luck with prospect injuries - you are just as liable to have bad luck with injuries to older expensive veterans.

[rockondlouie]

Some people want to believe that Bloom can go out and beat the FA market by spending $75 million and getting 20 or 25 fWAR for it. But that's as hard, or harder, to do than going out and acquiring prospects that will be successful.

But it fits their narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing FAs even when everybody has a ton of reliable information about just how good a FA will or will not likely be.

Now replace "beat the FA market" with.............."beat the prospect market"

&

Replace "their narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing FAs"

with "your narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing prospects"

It is MUCH more possible to "beat the prospect market."

Because there is much more uncertainty with projecting prospects, there is much more value to be gained by being smarter in evaluating them. You can leverage being smarter to gain more of an advantage with prospects than established players.

Uncertainty is exactly the playing field where being smart operates.

Seeing the prospect that can be a 2.5 WAR player for you for six years of team control vs. other teams seeing them as a future 1 WAR player is a much bigger win than seeing the FA who can be a 2.5 WAR player for you vs. other teams seeing them as a 2 WAR player (because you are going to at least have to bid on them like they are a 2 WAR player like everybody else).

Because with advanced analytics all teams are now much more informed than ever before about evaluating established ML players with years of ML performance history, there is much less uncertainty with them in which to leverage being smart.

NO IT'S NOT!

80+% of prospects become nothing but SUSPECTS never seeing an inning in MLB.

With free agents you are acquiring a PROVEN major league player with a PROVEN major league track record.

That is nowhere near an equivalence.

Again I'm going to turn your opinion right back on you:

Because with advanced analytics all teams are now much more informed than ever before about evaluating PROSPECTS!

[rockondlouie]

Some people want to believe that Bloom can go out and beat the FA market by spending $75 million and getting 20 or 25 fWAR for it. But that's as hard, or harder, to do than going out and acquiring prospects that will be successful.

But it fits their narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing FAs even when everybody has a ton of reliable information about just how good a FA will or will not likely be.

Now replace "beat the FA market" with.............."beat the prospect market"

&

Replace "their narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing FAs"

with "your narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing prospects"

The known(FA) will beat the unknown(Prospects) every time
With the scenario I laid out, the everyday lineup consists of SIX Homegrowns and THREE FA’s
The Cards will never have a better ratio than that……so do it NOW

Of course GF, not sure why he'd think otherwise.

[juan good eye]

And to be clear, this is how you reliably get to 25-30 fWAR from these 18 pre-ARB/ARB players so that you can take the rest of your $170, $180 million payroll and try to go find 8 full market cost veterans to give you another 14-16 fWAR (at $8-$10 million per fWAR).

That will give you the talent to be in the low 90s in wins.

Ok the model is layed out. Does the pool of players respective to each catagory listed, exist to support this and every teams model.

Seems you need several pools to fish from, but all are ankle deep.

Right now I'm only concerned with the Cardinals pool.

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

That's how the Cardinals fill up their pool as best they can to try to get to where they need to be by the end of 2027 or 2028.

The problem is you never know if these prospects will perform at the ML level…….
You seem to be just ignoring whats in the starting lineup Right Now and worried about some time 5yrs into the future Hoping prospects fill out your list
What are these players today in WAR land?
JJ
Winn
Herrera
WC
Burly

TGKS. 4.9WAR
JJ
Herrera 2.7WAR
Bellinger 4.9WAR
WC 2.8WAR
Burly 2.1WAR
Winn 3.5WAR
Gorman
Scott
And you’re there……in no way negates or impacts building the minors

Sign a FA SP
Return a SP for Gray, Donny, Noot, Romero
Libby
McGreevey
Leahy
Go compete for NL Central….bring butts back to Busch…..and continue building farm….walk and chew guy at same time
Fans aren’t going to wait 4-5yrs HOPING the farm produces a contending ML club…..and if that falls short….you’re starting that process over again

Fans will wait. You’re an idiot

[mattmitchl44]

Some people want to believe that Bloom can go out and beat the FA market by spending $75 million and getting 20 or 25 fWAR for it. But that's as hard, or harder, to do than going out and acquiring prospects that will be successful.

But it fits their narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing FAs even when everybody has a ton of reliable information about just how good a FA will or will not likely be.

Now replace "beat the FA market" with.............."beat the prospect market"

&

Replace "their narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing FAs"

with "your narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing prospects"

It is MUCH more possible to "beat the prospect market."

Because there is much more uncertainty with projecting prospects, there is much more value to be gained by being smarter in evaluating them. You can leverage being smarter to gain more of an advantage with prospects than established players.

Uncertainty is exactly the playing field where being smart operates.

Seeing the prospect that can be a 2.5 WAR player for you for six years of team control vs. other teams seeing them as a future 1 WAR player is a much bigger win than seeing the FA who can be a 2.5 WAR player for you vs. other teams seeing them as a 2 WAR player (because you are going to at least have to bid on them like they are a 2 WAR player like everybody else).

Because with advanced analytics all teams are now much more informed than ever before about evaluating established ML players with years of ML performance history, there is much less uncertainty with them in which to leverage being smart.

NO IT'S NOT!

80+% of prospects become nothing but SUSPECTS never seeing an inning in MLB.

With free agents you are acquiring a PROVEN major league player with a PROVEN major league track record.

That is nowhere near an equivalence.

Again I'm going to turn your opinion right back on you:

Because with advanced analytics all teams are now much more informed than ever before about evaluating PROSPECTS!

I could keep trying to explain why having more uncertainty magnifies the value of being smarter, but you're not going to get it. So Im going to stop now.

[rockondlouie]

Some people want to believe that Bloom can go out and beat the FA market by spending $75 million and getting 20 or 25 fWAR for it. But that's as hard, or harder, to do than going out and acquiring prospects that will be successful.

But it fits their narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing FAs even when everybody has a ton of reliable information about just how good a FA will or will not likely be.

Now replace "beat the FA market" with.............."beat the prospect market"

&

Replace "their narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing FAs"

with "your narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing prospects"

It is MUCH more possible to "beat the prospect market."

Because there is much more uncertainty with projecting prospects, there is much more value to be gained by being smarter in evaluating them. You can leverage being smarter to gain more of an advantage with prospects than established players.

Uncertainty is exactly the playing field where being smart operates.

Seeing the prospect that can be a 2.5 WAR player for you for six years of team control vs. other teams seeing them as a future 1 WAR player is a much bigger win than seeing the FA who can be a 2.5 WAR player for you vs. other teams seeing them as a 2 WAR player (because you are going to at least have to bid on them like they are a 2 WAR player like everybody else).

Because with advanced analytics all teams are now much more informed than ever before about evaluating established ML players with years of ML performance history, there is much less uncertainty with them in which to leverage being smart.

NO IT'S NOT!

80+% of prospects become nothing but SUSPECTS never seeing an inning in MLB.

With free agents you are acquiring a PROVEN major league player with a PROVEN major league track record.

That is nowhere near an equivalence.

Again I'm going to turn your opinion right back on you:

Because with advanced analytics all teams are now much more informed than ever before about evaluating PROSPECTS!

I could keep trying to explain why having more uncertainty magnifies the value of being smarter, but you're not going to get it. So Im going to stop now.

There's nothing for me to get, your "explanations" are nothing more than faulty opinions and there's certainly nothing you could ever teach me.