Every Contender Could Use a Donovan

[Carp4Cy]

Explain to me "why" it is not a good idea? You'd prefer to trade our arguably best player and trade chip for someone more controlled but unknown?

Because players almost never sign extensions in their walk year and the almost never sign with them after declaring free agency. It happens sometimes with the Guerrero's and Judge's of the world, but I can think of few other examples. You squander your best trade chip for a pitcher who may be great during one year of a rebuild.

It worked for Goldy, Rolen, Edmonds, McGwire, Holliday. The STL Cardinals are much better at trading for a Star or plus player then extending them than they are at signing a top player out of Free Agency.

Are there examples of players doing this in STL, or elsewhere in the past 5 years? That seems like a practice from the past that is rarely practiced anymore.

Goldy was fairly recent memory, and that contract just ended 13 months ago.

That's one. I'll stick with almost never happens (even here).

You are right, its a risk, though for a Goldy level player in 2019, or hopefully a Bubic/Gore type player, they get a QO and we get a compensating draft pick, which is very valuable. Moreso than the level of prospects that franschises make available in these types of trades.

Conversely, how often do we trade for an A or AA level prospect and they turn into all stars like Donovan? Wainwright did, but how many recent examples? I content it is also rare, maybe moreso. Most of our successful prospects originate in our org, just because we aren't working against the loss avoidance bias of other GMs not wanting to give up their crown jewels and offering prospects they have secretly soured on instead.
[/quo

If you are looking at a 5-year plan for the team, trading Donovan for Bubic is a much riskier move than trading for prospects. You mention A and AA. It's true, the further you get from the majors the more room you have to go wrong. Much more is known about AA and AAA. Single A is a crapshoot. The only viable major league player we currently have who was acquired as a prospect is Liberatore. Player evaluation and trade paralysis was a real problem. I'm hopeful that is better now.

So what if we targeted something in between - a MLB ready prospect from a team that doesn't have a spot for them and needs/wants a Donovan now?
Spencer Jones
Justin Crawford
Nolan McLean
Chase DeLauter
Trey Yesavage (dreaming...too late now)
Colt Emerson (if the Mariners keep Saurez?)

It would take more than Donovan for probably any of these, But you could be landing someone with a much higher % of success AND a much higher ceiling than just taking a handful or random lower minors prospects from somewhere on a teams top 10 list. And putting another new MLB Rookie on our roster for 2026 is NOT too early for where we are in a rebuild scenario. It could make us better now And make us better for years to come.

MLB-ready prospects is already part of this conversation.

Did you think we were talking about A ball players who were 4 years away?

I would hope that most or all of BD's trade return is MLB by mid 2027 at the latest.

That's usually where we end up. I fear the most likely scenario would be we don't get offered any of those MLB ready top prospects for just Donovan and so we keep him and later trade him at the deadline in 2027 for a Single A Jesus Baez long shot type. To get a true high ceiling and ready prospect, Bloom would need to package someone else - pick a surplus Catcher off our top 10 list maybe? Maybe more? Or he would need to pivot to another proven player like Gore or Babic, which comes with its own pros and cons. Its not as straightforward a trade as it seems, and I fear the "You're gonna hate a Donovan deal" thread will be accurate.

Much too negative. There won't be a player with more teams legitimately interested in trading for him this winter than Donovan.

I'll admit I'm pessimistic about our chosen path. But in my defense, I've come by it honestly. I'll be watching and ready to be surprised.

[ecleme22]

Explain to me "why" it is not a good idea? You'd prefer to trade our arguably best player and trade chip for someone more controlled but unknown?

Because players almost never sign extensions in their walk year and the almost never sign with them after declaring free agency. It happens sometimes with the Guerrero's and Judge's of the world, but I can think of few other examples. You squander your best trade chip for a pitcher who may be great during one year of a rebuild.

It worked for Goldy, Rolen, Edmonds, McGwire, Holliday. The STL Cardinals are much better at trading for a Star or plus player then extending them than they are at signing a top player out of Free Agency.

Are there examples of players doing this in STL, or elsewhere in the past 5 years? That seems like a practice from the past that is rarely practiced anymore.

Goldy was fairly recent memory, and that contract just ended 13 months ago.

That's one. I'll stick with almost never happens (even here).

You are right, its a risk, though for a Goldy level player in 2019, or hopefully a Bubic/Gore type player, they get a QO and we get a compensating draft pick, which is very valuable. Moreso than the level of prospects that franschises make available in these types of trades.

Conversely, how often do we trade for an A or AA level prospect and they turn into all stars like Donovan? Wainwright did, but how many recent examples? I content it is also rare, maybe moreso. Most of our successful prospects originate in our org, just because we aren't working against the loss avoidance bias of other GMs not wanting to give up their crown jewels and offering prospects they have secretly soured on instead.
[/quo

If you are looking at a 5-year plan for the team, trading Donovan for Bubic is a much riskier move than trading for prospects. You mention A and AA. It's true, the further you get from the majors the more room you have to go wrong. Much more is known about AA and AAA. Single A is a crapshoot. The only viable major league player we currently have who was acquired as a prospect is Liberatore. Player evaluation and trade paralysis was a real problem. I'm hopeful that is better now.

So what if we targeted something in between - a MLB ready prospect from a team that doesn't have a spot for them and needs/wants a Donovan now?
Spencer Jones
Justin Crawford
Nolan McLean
Chase DeLauter
Trey Yesavage (dreaming...too late now)
Colt Emerson (if the Mariners keep Saurez?)

It would take more than Donovan for probably any of these, But you could be landing someone with a much higher % of success AND a much higher ceiling than just taking a handful or random lower minors prospects from somewhere on a teams top 10 list. And putting another new MLB Rookie on our roster for 2026 is NOT too early for where we are in a rebuild scenario. It could make us better now And make us better for years to come.

MLB-ready prospects is already part of this conversation.

Did you think we were talking about A ball players who were 4 years away?

I would hope that most or all of BD's trade return is MLB by mid 2027 at the latest.

That's usually where we end up. I fear the most likely scenario would be we don't get offered any of those MLB ready top prospects for just Donovan and so we keep him and later trade him at the deadline in 2027 for a Single A Jesus Baez long shot type. To get a true high ceiling and ready prospect, Bloom would need to package someone else - pick a surplus Catcher off our top 10 list maybe? Maybe more? Or he would need to pivot to another proven player like Gore or Babic, which comes with its own pros and cons. Its not as straightforward a trade as it seems, and I fear the "You're gonna hate a Donovan deal" thread will be accurate.

Why would you trade for Bubic if you can sign him next offseason?

If the cards don’t trade Donovan this offseason, why do you assume then he won’t get traded until 2027 midyear?


We will see what happens. All I know we are spending way too much time pining over Brendan freakin Donovan.

[renostl]

This is where Bloom needs to prove his own worth. He has to evaluate Donovans worth without overplaying his hand. Those thinking we will get an overpay for him may be disappointed. Donovan isn't a power bat or a 1 or 2 level starting pitcher. Those are the guys who get overpaid for. If he wants to move him, it will have to be fairly equitable value on both sides. For me a good deal would be a 2ish sp that is ready in the next couple of years. I don't think you are getting a teams #1 pitching prospect.

Yup. I have never used the term "haul". IMO Donovan is worth a back half of the top 100 prospects and a wild card that would fit into STL top 20 prospects.

In the spirit of this topic.

Since we are talking about contenders. Every contender can use Donovan and a top 3 pitcher.
Would you put Gray with Donovan? +/- and it is not like it's a player decreasing Donovan's
value.

No. I'm generally all for packaging players, but each of the NTC guys should be traded individually.

Understandable.

Usually, when players are package, one player is more attractive
to the team that is acquiring them or one player is slipped into the deal that decreases
the deal. Regardless there is a downside.

They may well, and still probably if dealt, are done separately.

The difference in these two in my opinion is this. Almost anywhere a SG deal might
occur that team would receive Donovan with open arms. SG has a select group. A team
to wants him. He has to want to go there. That team is win now, that team is not thinking
only on budget, a plus for the Cardinals position.

I see a very unique synergistic opportunity when as the thread is titled, "every contender
could use Donovan" In a world that Donovan doesn't get that top prospect like Tucker did or Soto did.
Nor does a 1 year rental like Gray, even with that being part of his appeal.

easily wrong, just looking for why it wrong.

[JuanAgosto]

Donovan needs to be moved for a SP or a legit power bat (even if a prospect). Hes the best trade piece Bloom has to work with. Make the most of this important move.

[Carp4Cy]

Explain to me "why" it is not a good idea? You'd prefer to trade our arguably best player and trade chip for someone more controlled but unknown?

Because players almost never sign extensions in their walk year and the almost never sign with them after declaring free agency. It happens sometimes with the Guerrero's and Judge's of the world, but I can think of few other examples. You squander your best trade chip for a pitcher who may be great during one year of a rebuild.

It worked for Goldy, Rolen, Edmonds, McGwire, Holliday. The STL Cardinals are much better at trading for a Star or plus player then extending them than they are at signing a top player out of Free Agency.

Are there examples of players doing this in STL, or elsewhere in the past 5 years? That seems like a practice from the past that is rarely practiced anymore.

Goldy was fairly recent memory, and that contract just ended 13 months ago.

That's one. I'll stick with almost never happens (even here).

You are right, its a risk, though for a Goldy level player in 2019, or hopefully a Bubic/Gore type player, they get a QO and we get a compensating draft pick, which is very valuable. Moreso than the level of prospects that franschises make available in these types of trades.

Conversely, how often do we trade for an A or AA level prospect and they turn into all stars like Donovan? Wainwright did, but how many recent examples? I content it is also rare, maybe moreso. Most of our successful prospects originate in our org, just because we aren't working against the loss avoidance bias of other GMs not wanting to give up their crown jewels and offering prospects they have secretly soured on instead.
[/quo

If you are looking at a 5-year plan for the team, trading Donovan for Bubic is a much riskier move than trading for prospects. You mention A and AA. It's true, the further you get from the majors the more room you have to go wrong. Much more is known about AA and AAA. Single A is a crapshoot. The only viable major league player we currently have who was acquired as a prospect is Liberatore. Player evaluation and trade paralysis was a real problem. I'm hopeful that is better now.

So what if we targeted something in between - a MLB ready prospect from a team that doesn't have a spot for them and needs/wants a Donovan now?
Spencer Jones
Justin Crawford
Nolan McLean
Chase DeLauter
Trey Yesavage (dreaming...too late now)
Colt Emerson (if the Mariners keep Saurez?)

It would take more than Donovan for probably any of these, But you could be landing someone with a much higher % of success AND a much higher ceiling than just taking a handful or random lower minors prospects from somewhere on a teams top 10 list. And putting another new MLB Rookie on our roster for 2026 is NOT too early for where we are in a rebuild scenario. It could make us better now And make us better for years to come.

MLB-ready prospects is already part of this conversation.

Did you think we were talking about A ball players who were 4 years away?

I would hope that most or all of BD's trade return is MLB by mid 2027 at the latest.

That's usually where we end up. I fear the most likely scenario would be we don't get offered any of those MLB ready top prospects for just Donovan and so we keep him and later trade him at the deadline in 2027 for a Single A Jesus Baez long shot type. To get a true high ceiling and ready prospect, Bloom would need to package someone else - pick a surplus Catcher off our top 10 list maybe? Maybe more? Or he would need to pivot to another proven player like Gore or Babic, which comes with its own pros and cons. Its not as straightforward a trade as it seems, and I fear the "You're gonna hate a Donovan deal" thread will be accurate.

Why would you trade for Bubic if you can sign him next offseason?

If the cards don’t trade Donovan this offseason, why do you assume then he won’t get traded until 2027 midyear?


We will see what happens. All I know we are spending way too much time pining over Brendan freakin Donovan.

QO and we lose a draft pick if we sign him in FA. Meanwhile if we trade for him and lose him to FA we gain a pick after offering him a QO.

Best case we extend and keep him and win in October before 2030.