Every Contender Could Use a Donovan

[AZ_Cardsfan]

No doubt Donovan is the Cardinals most valuable asset in getting the best return in a trade. Bloom has to at least explore that opportunity.

Donovan and Burleson are at their highest trade value in their careers so far. Cardinals are not going to be competitive in 2026.

Bloom absolutely ought to be exploring trades. Do something Mo couldn't: Trade High.

yeah. Some fans will whine how STL can't contend next year if they do but are missing the point. They can't contend now. Not sure what Burleson would return but would be open. ALso not sure when he is a free agent.

[renostl]

This is where Bloom needs to prove his own worth. He has to evaluate Donovans worth without overplaying his hand. Those thinking we will get an overpay for him may be disappointed. Donovan isn't a power bat or a 1 or 2 level starting pitcher. Those are the guys who get overpaid for. If he wants to move him, it will have to be fairly equitable value on both sides. For me a good deal would be a 2ish sp that is ready in the next couple of years. I don't think you are getting a teams #1 pitching prospect.

Yup. I have never used the term "haul". IMO Donovan is worth a back half of the top 100 prospects and a wild card that would fit into STL top 20 prospects.

In the spirit of this topic.

Since we are talking about contenders. Every contender can use Donovan and a top 3 pitcher.
Would you put Gray with Donovan? +/- and it is not like it's a player decreasing Donovan's
value.

[Talkin' Baseball]

This is where Bloom needs to prove his own worth. He has to evaluate Donovans worth without overplaying his hand. Those thinking we will get an overpay for him may be disappointed. Donovan isn't a power bat or a 1 or 2 level starting pitcher. Those are the guys who get overpaid for. If he wants to move him, it will have to be fairly equitable value on both sides. For me a good deal would be a 2ish sp that is ready in the next couple of years. I don't think you are getting a teams #1 pitching prospect.

Yup. I have never used the term "haul". IMO Donovan is worth a back half of the top 100 prospects and a wild card that would fit into STL top 20 prospects.

In the spirit of this topic.

Since we are talking about contenders. Every contender can use Donovan and a top 3 pitcher.
Would you put Gray with Donovan? +/- and it is not like it's a player decreasing Donovan's
value.

No. I'm generally all for packaging players, but each of the NTC guys should be traded individually.

[Carp4Cy]

This is where Bloom needs to prove his own worth. He has to evaluate Donovans worth without overplaying his hand. Those thinking we will get an overpay for him may be disappointed. Donovan isn't a power bat or a 1 or 2 level starting pitcher. Those are the guys who get overpaid for. If he wants to move him, it will have to be fairly equitable value on both sides. For me a good deal would be a 2ish sp that is ready in the next couple of years. I don't think you are getting a teams #1 pitching prospect.

Yup. I have never used the term "haul". IMO Donovan is worth a back half of the top 100 prospects and a wild card that would fit into STL top 20 prospects.

Just for reference:
"Approximately one in four (around 25%) top 100 MLB prospects become MLB All-Stars, though this percentage is much higher for position players (about 40%) than pitchers (around 10%). These figures are estimates, but the higher success rate for position players compared to pitchers among the top prospects is consistently observed.
Overall: Roughly 25% of top 100 prospects go on to have "superior" success, which includes becoming All-Stars.
Position players: Nearly two out of five (around 40%) top 100 position players succeed in the majors, with just under one-quarter becoming stars."

So a 51-100 prospect would probably be lower than 25%, and of those, many will already be made unavailable by their owners. Trading all star veteran for prospects involves an adverse selection bias that potentially works against us. Scouting is easier in drafts than in trades because we can pick anyone and we aren't competing against the other franchises scouts who have more insider info and ultimately decide who they are willing to give up and who they must keep.

[ecleme22]

This is where Bloom needs to prove his own worth. He has to evaluate Donovans worth without overplaying his hand. Those thinking we will get an overpay for him may be disappointed. Donovan isn't a power bat or a 1 or 2 level starting pitcher. Those are the guys who get overpaid for. If he wants to move him, it will have to be fairly equitable value on both sides. For me a good deal would be a 2ish sp that is ready in the next couple of years. I don't think you are getting a teams #1 pitching prospect.

Yup. I have never used the term "haul". IMO Donovan is worth a back half of the top 100 prospects and a wild card that would fit into STL top 20 prospects.

Just for reference:
"Approximately one in four (around 25%) top 100 MLB prospects become MLB All-Stars, though this percentage is much higher for position players (about 40%) than pitchers (around 10%). These figures are estimates, but the higher success rate for position players compared to pitchers among the top prospects is consistently observed.
Overall: Roughly 25% of top 100 prospects go on to have "superior" success, which includes becoming All-Stars.
Position players: Nearly two out of five (around 40%) top 100 position players succeed in the majors, with just under one-quarter becoming stars."

So a 51-100 prospect would probably be lower than 25%, and of those, many will already be made unavailable by their owners. Trading all star veteran for prospects involves an adverse selection bias that potentially works against us. Scouting is easier in drafts than in trades because we can pick anyone and we aren't competing against the other franchises scouts who have more insider info and ultimately decide who they are willing to give up and who they must keep.

Who says other scouts have more insider info?

And who says scouting drafts are easier than mlb prospects? Source?

[Carp4Cy]

Explain to me "why" it is not a good idea? You'd prefer to trade our arguably best player and trade chip for someone more controlled but unknown?

Because players almost never sign extensions in their walk year and the almost never sign with them after declaring free agency. It happens sometimes with the Guerrero's and Judge's of the world, but I can think of few other examples. You squander your best trade chip for a pitcher who may be great during one year of a rebuild.

It worked for Goldy, Rolen, Edmonds, McGwire, Holliday. The STL Cardinals are much better at trading for a Star or plus player then extending them than they are at signing a top player out of Free Agency.

Are there examples of players doing this in STL, or elsewhere in the past 5 years? That seems like a practice from the past that is rarely practiced anymore.

Goldy was fairly recent memory, and that contract just ended 13 months ago.

That's one. I'll stick with almost never happens (even here).

You are right, its a risk, though for a Goldy level player in 2019, or hopefully a Bubic/Gore type player, they get a QO and we get a compensating draft pick, which is very valuable. Moreso than the level of prospects that franschises make available in these types of trades.

Conversely, how often do we trade for an A or AA level prospect and they turn into all stars like Donovan? Wainwright did, but how many recent examples? I content it is also rare, maybe moreso. Most of our successful prospects originate in our org, just because we aren't working against the loss avoidance bias of other GMs not wanting to give up their crown jewels and offering prospects they have secretly soured on instead.
[/quo

If you are looking at a 5-year plan for the team, trading Donovan for Bubic is a much riskier move than trading for prospects. You mention A and AA. It's true, the further you get from the majors the more room you have to go wrong. Much more is known about AA and AAA. Single A is a crapshoot. The only viable major league player we currently have who was acquired as a prospect is Liberatore. Player evaluation and trade paralysis was a real problem. I'm hopeful that is better now.

So what if we targeted something in between - a MLB ready prospect from a team that doesn't have a spot for them and needs/wants a Donovan now?
Spencer Jones
Justin Crawford
Nolan McLean
Chase DeLauter
Trey Yesavage (dreaming...too late now)
Colt Emerson (if the Mariners keep Saurez?)

It would take more than Donovan for probably any of these, But you could be landing someone with a much higher % of success AND a much higher ceiling than just taking a handful or random lower minors prospects from somewhere on a teams top 10 list. And putting another new MLB Rookie on our roster for 2026 is NOT too early for where we are in a rebuild scenario. It could make us better now And make us better for years to come.

[AZ_Cardsfan]

This is where Bloom needs to prove his own worth. He has to evaluate Donovans worth without overplaying his hand. Those thinking we will get an overpay for him may be disappointed. Donovan isn't a power bat or a 1 or 2 level starting pitcher. Those are the guys who get overpaid for. If he wants to move him, it will have to be fairly equitable value on both sides. For me a good deal would be a 2ish sp that is ready in the next couple of years. I don't think you are getting a teams #1 pitching prospect.

Yup. I have never used the term "haul". IMO Donovan is worth a back half of the top 100 prospects and a wild card that would fit into STL top 20 prospects.

In the spirit of this topic.

Since we are talking about contenders. Every contender can use Donovan and a top 3 pitcher.
Would you put Gray with Donovan? +/- and it is not like it's a player decreasing Donovan's
value.

So long as it isn't being done to reduce having to pay some of Gray contract OK. But I suspect that is what most are thinking and I'm against it. STL can afford to pay off some of that contract to get rid of Gray and use Donovan to get the best possible prospect in return. Keeping them separate is probably for the best.

[ecleme22]

Explain to me "why" it is not a good idea? You'd prefer to trade our arguably best player and trade chip for someone more controlled but unknown?

Because players almost never sign extensions in their walk year and the almost never sign with them after declaring free agency. It happens sometimes with the Guerrero's and Judge's of the world, but I can think of few other examples. You squander your best trade chip for a pitcher who may be great during one year of a rebuild.

It worked for Goldy, Rolen, Edmonds, McGwire, Holliday. The STL Cardinals are much better at trading for a Star or plus player then extending them than they are at signing a top player out of Free Agency.

Are there examples of players doing this in STL, or elsewhere in the past 5 years? That seems like a practice from the past that is rarely practiced anymore.

Goldy was fairly recent memory, and that contract just ended 13 months ago.

That's one. I'll stick with almost never happens (even here).

You are right, its a risk, though for a Goldy level player in 2019, or hopefully a Bubic/Gore type player, they get a QO and we get a compensating draft pick, which is very valuable. Moreso than the level of prospects that franschises make available in these types of trades.

Conversely, how often do we trade for an A or AA level prospect and they turn into all stars like Donovan? Wainwright did, but how many recent examples? I content it is also rare, maybe moreso. Most of our successful prospects originate in our org, just because we aren't working against the loss avoidance bias of other GMs not wanting to give up their crown jewels and offering prospects they have secretly soured on instead.
[/quo

If you are looking at a 5-year plan for the team, trading Donovan for Bubic is a much riskier move than trading for prospects. You mention A and AA. It's true, the further you get from the majors the more room you have to go wrong. Much more is known about AA and AAA. Single A is a crapshoot. The only viable major league player we currently have who was acquired as a prospect is Liberatore. Player evaluation and trade paralysis was a real problem. I'm hopeful that is better now.

So what if we targeted something in between - a MLB ready prospect from a team that doesn't have a spot for them and needs/wants a Donovan now?
Spencer Jones
Justin Crawford
Nolan McLean
Chase DeLauter
Trey Yesavage (dreaming...too late now)
Colt Emerson (if the Mariners keep Saurez?)

It would take more than Donovan for probably any of these, But you could be landing someone with a much higher % of success AND a much higher ceiling than just taking a handful or random lower minors prospects from somewhere on a teams top 10 list. And putting another new MLB Rookie on our roster for 2026 is NOT too early for where we are in a rebuild scenario. It could make us better now And make us better for years to come.

MLB-ready prospects is already part of this conversation.

Did you think we were talking about A ball players who were 4 years away?

I would hope that most or all of BD's trade return is MLB by mid 2027 at the latest.

[renostl]

This is where Bloom needs to prove his own worth. He has to evaluate Donovans worth without overplaying his hand. Those thinking we will get an overpay for him may be disappointed. Donovan isn't a power bat or a 1 or 2 level starting pitcher. Those are the guys who get overpaid for. If he wants to move him, it will have to be fairly equitable value on both sides. For me a good deal would be a 2ish sp that is ready in the next couple of years. I don't think you are getting a teams #1 pitching prospect.

Yup. I have never used the term "haul". IMO Donovan is worth a back half of the top 100 prospects and a wild card that would fit into STL top 20 prospects.

In the spirit of this topic.

Since we are talking about contenders. Every contender can use Donovan and a top 3 pitcher.
Would you put Gray with Donovan? +/- and it is not like it's a player decreasing Donovan's
value.

So long as it isn't being done to reduce having to pay some of Gray contract OK. But I suspect that is what most are thinking and I'm against it. STL can afford to pay off some of that contract to get rid of Gray and use Donovan to get the best possible prospect in return. Keeping them separate is probably for the best.

I don't become overly concerned with others budget. I
don't fully know it nor will I change it.

I think that it could be done in order to provide a higher return.
SG is a rental. A very valuable rental but still a rental. From a buyers perspective,
I would have players on my roster that aren't available for a rental. I'll say
the exact same thing in regard to Donovan there's players not available.
Keep the money the same, don't worry about it be concerned and focused on why
the Cardinals would entertain moving their better players. Get the highest
quality return.

[renostl]

Explain to me "why" it is not a good idea? You'd prefer to trade our arguably best player and trade chip for someone more controlled but unknown?

Because players almost never sign extensions in their walk year and the almost never sign with them after declaring free agency. It happens sometimes with the Guerrero's and Judge's of the world, but I can think of few other examples. You squander your best trade chip for a pitcher who may be great during one year of a rebuild.

It worked for Goldy, Rolen, Edmonds, McGwire, Holliday. The STL Cardinals are much better at trading for a Star or plus player then extending them than they are at signing a top player out of Free Agency.

Are there examples of players doing this in STL, or elsewhere in the past 5 years? That seems like a practice from the past that is rarely practiced anymore.

Goldy was fairly recent memory, and that contract just ended 13 months ago.

That's one. I'll stick with almost never happens (even here).

You are right, its a risk, though for a Goldy level player in 2019, or hopefully a Bubic/Gore type player, they get a QO and we get a compensating draft pick, which is very valuable. Moreso than the level of prospects that franschises make available in these types of trades.

Conversely, how often do we trade for an A or AA level prospect and they turn into all stars like Donovan? Wainwright did, but how many recent examples? I content it is also rare, maybe moreso. Most of our successful prospects originate in our org, just because we aren't working against the loss avoidance bias of other GMs not wanting to give up their crown jewels and offering prospects they have secretly soured on instead.
[/quo

If you are looking at a 5-year plan for the team, trading Donovan for Bubic is a much riskier move than trading for prospects. You mention A and AA. It's true, the further you get from the majors the more room you have to go wrong. Much more is known about AA and AAA. Single A is a crapshoot. The only viable major league player we currently have who was acquired as a prospect is Liberatore. Player evaluation and trade paralysis was a real problem. I'm hopeful that is better now.

So what if we targeted something in between - a MLB ready prospect from a team that doesn't have a spot for them and needs/wants a Donovan now?
Spencer Jones
Justin Crawford
Nolan McLean
Chase DeLauter
Trey Yesavage (dreaming...too late now)
Colt Emerson (if the Mariners keep Saurez?)

It would take more than Donovan for probably any of these, But you could be landing someone with a much higher % of success AND a much higher ceiling than just taking a handful or random lower minors prospects from somewhere on a teams top 10 list. And putting another new MLB Rookie on our roster for 2026 is NOT too early for where we are in a rebuild scenario. It could make us better now And make us better for years to come.

MLB-ready prospects is already part of this conversation.

Did you think we were talking about A ball players who were 4 years away?

I would hope that most or all of BD's trade return is MLB by mid 2027 at the latest.

IMO,
It almost has to be. There are two things going on here. Improving roster and
improving interest in the product. Getting rid of a better player and not seeing
a return is unlikely to do that.

[ecleme22]

Explain to me "why" it is not a good idea? You'd prefer to trade our arguably best player and trade chip for someone more controlled but unknown?

Because players almost never sign extensions in their walk year and the almost never sign with them after declaring free agency. It happens sometimes with the Guerrero's and Judge's of the world, but I can think of few other examples. You squander your best trade chip for a pitcher who may be great during one year of a rebuild.

It worked for Goldy, Rolen, Edmonds, McGwire, Holliday. The STL Cardinals are much better at trading for a Star or plus player then extending them than they are at signing a top player out of Free Agency.

Are there examples of players doing this in STL, or elsewhere in the past 5 years? That seems like a practice from the past that is rarely practiced anymore.

Goldy was fairly recent memory, and that contract just ended 13 months ago.

That's one. I'll stick with almost never happens (even here).

You are right, its a risk, though for a Goldy level player in 2019, or hopefully a Bubic/Gore type player, they get a QO and we get a compensating draft pick, which is very valuable. Moreso than the level of prospects that franschises make available in these types of trades.

Conversely, how often do we trade for an A or AA level prospect and they turn into all stars like Donovan? Wainwright did, but how many recent examples? I content it is also rare, maybe moreso. Most of our successful prospects originate in our org, just because we aren't working against the loss avoidance bias of other GMs not wanting to give up their crown jewels and offering prospects they have secretly soured on instead.
[/quo

If you are looking at a 5-year plan for the team, trading Donovan for Bubic is a much riskier move than trading for prospects. You mention A and AA. It's true, the further you get from the majors the more room you have to go wrong. Much more is known about AA and AAA. Single A is a crapshoot. The only viable major league player we currently have who was acquired as a prospect is Liberatore. Player evaluation and trade paralysis was a real problem. I'm hopeful that is better now.

So what if we targeted something in between - a MLB ready prospect from a team that doesn't have a spot for them and needs/wants a Donovan now?
Spencer Jones
Justin Crawford
Nolan McLean
Chase DeLauter
Trey Yesavage (dreaming...too late now)
Colt Emerson (if the Mariners keep Saurez?)

It would take more than Donovan for probably any of these, But you could be landing someone with a much higher % of success AND a much higher ceiling than just taking a handful or random lower minors prospects from somewhere on a teams top 10 list. And putting another new MLB Rookie on our roster for 2026 is NOT too early for where we are in a rebuild scenario. It could make us better now And make us better for years to come.

MLB-ready prospects is already part of this conversation.

Did you think we were talking about A ball players who were 4 years away?

I would hope that most or all of BD's trade return is MLB by mid 2027 at the latest.

IMO,
It almost has to be. There are two things going on here. Improving roster and
improving interest in the product. Getting rid of a better player and not seeing
a return is unlikely to do that.

I think it’s more about flipping the roster over asap

[renostl]

If you are looking at a 5-year plan for the team, trading Donovan for Bubic is a much riskier move than trading for prospects. You mention A and AA. It's true, the further you get from the majors the more room you have to go wrong. Much more is known about AA and AAA. Single A is a crapshoot. The only viable major league player we currently have who was acquired as a prospect is Liberatore. Player evaluation and trade paralysis was a real problem. I'm hopeful that is better now.

So what if we targeted something in between - a MLB ready prospect from a team that doesn't have a spot for them and needs/wants a Donovan now?
Spencer Jones
Justin Crawford
Nolan McLean
Chase DeLauter
Trey Yesavage (dreaming...too late now)
Colt Emerson (if the Mariners keep Saurez?)

It would take more than Donovan for probably any of these, But you could be landing someone with a much higher % of success AND a much higher ceiling than just taking a handful or random lower minors prospects from somewhere on a teams top 10 list. And putting another new MLB Rookie on our roster for 2026 is NOT too early for where we are in a rebuild scenario. It could make us better now And make us better for years to come.

MLB-ready prospects is already part of this conversation.

Did you think we were talking about A ball players who were 4 years away?

I would hope that most or all of BD's trade return is MLB by mid 2027 at the latest.

IMO,
It almost has to be. There are two things going on here. Improving roster and
improving interest in the product. Getting rid of a better player and not seeing
a return is unlikely to do that.

I think it’s more about flipping the roster over asap
[/quote]

Certainly a part of it.
I don't think it's change though for the sake of change.

It's about looking at a roster, how to improve it to put
it in a better position to compete.

I doubt 2 people in charge see this roster the same and have the same
plan to fix it. IDK if Blooms is in stone. Are players connected?
If "A" goes does "B" stay.

[Carp4Cy]

This is where Bloom needs to prove his own worth. He has to evaluate Donovans worth without overplaying his hand. Those thinking we will get an overpay for him may be disappointed. Donovan isn't a power bat or a 1 or 2 level starting pitcher. Those are the guys who get overpaid for. If he wants to move him, it will have to be fairly equitable value on both sides. For me a good deal would be a 2ish sp that is ready in the next couple of years. I don't think you are getting a teams #1 pitching prospect.

Yup. I have never used the term "haul". IMO Donovan is worth a back half of the top 100 prospects and a wild card that would fit into STL top 20 prospects.

Just for reference:
"Approximately one in four (around 25%) top 100 MLB prospects become MLB All-Stars, though this percentage is much higher for position players (about 40%) than pitchers (around 10%). These figures are estimates, but the higher success rate for position players compared to pitchers among the top prospects is consistently observed.
Overall: Roughly 25% of top 100 prospects go on to have "superior" success, which includes becoming All-Stars.
Position players: Nearly two out of five (around 40%) top 100 position players succeed in the majors, with just under one-quarter becoming stars."

So a 51-100 prospect would probably be lower than 25%, and of those, many will already be made unavailable by their owners. Trading all star veteran for prospects involves an adverse selection bias that potentially works against us. Scouting is easier in drafts than in trades because we can pick anyone and we aren't competing against the other franchises scouts who have more insider info and ultimately decide who they are willing to give up and who they must keep.

Who says other scouts have more insider info?

And who says scouting drafts are easier than mlb prospects? Source?

They automatically have access to more info on their own players - scouts, coaches, MiLB managers, other personnel are with their prospects for most of the hours of every day - they get to know them on a level that other teams scouts cannot from just watching games. Hence the adverse selection bias.

[Carp4Cy]

This is where Bloom needs to prove his own worth. He has to evaluate Donovans worth without overplaying his hand. Those thinking we will get an overpay for him may be disappointed. Donovan isn't a power bat or a 1 or 2 level starting pitcher. Those are the guys who get overpaid for. If he wants to move him, it will have to be fairly equitable value on both sides. For me a good deal would be a 2ish sp that is ready in the next couple of years. I don't think you are getting a teams #1 pitching prospect.

Yup. I have never used the term "haul". IMO Donovan is worth a back half of the top 100 prospects and a wild card that would fit into STL top 20 prospects.

In the spirit of this topic.

Since we are talking about contenders. Every contender can use Donovan and a top 3 pitcher.
Would you put Gray with Donovan? +/- and it is not like it's a player decreasing Donovan's
value.

So long as it isn't being done to reduce having to pay some of Gray contract OK. But I suspect that is what most are thinking and I'm against it. STL can afford to pay off some of that contract to get rid of Gray and use Donovan to get the best possible prospect in return. Keeping them separate is probably for the best.

I don't become overly concerned with others budget. I
don't fully know it nor will I change it.

I think that it could be done in order to provide a higher return.
SG is a rental. A very valuable rental but still a rental. From a buyers perspective,
I would have players on my roster that aren't available for a rental. I'll say
the exact same thing in regard to Donovan there's players not available.
Keep the money the same, don't worry about it be concerned and focused on why
the Cardinals would entertain moving their better players. Get the highest
quality return.

Is Sonny Gray too old to turn down a QO for a 2+ year contract at the end of this contract? If not then he's a little different from a straight rental.

[Carp4Cy]

Explain to me "why" it is not a good idea? You'd prefer to trade our arguably best player and trade chip for someone more controlled but unknown?

Because players almost never sign extensions in their walk year and the almost never sign with them after declaring free agency. It happens sometimes with the Guerrero's and Judge's of the world, but I can think of few other examples. You squander your best trade chip for a pitcher who may be great during one year of a rebuild.

It worked for Goldy, Rolen, Edmonds, McGwire, Holliday. The STL Cardinals are much better at trading for a Star or plus player then extending them than they are at signing a top player out of Free Agency.

Are there examples of players doing this in STL, or elsewhere in the past 5 years? That seems like a practice from the past that is rarely practiced anymore.

Goldy was fairly recent memory, and that contract just ended 13 months ago.

That's one. I'll stick with almost never happens (even here).

You are right, its a risk, though for a Goldy level player in 2019, or hopefully a Bubic/Gore type player, they get a QO and we get a compensating draft pick, which is very valuable. Moreso than the level of prospects that franschises make available in these types of trades.

Conversely, how often do we trade for an A or AA level prospect and they turn into all stars like Donovan? Wainwright did, but how many recent examples? I content it is also rare, maybe moreso. Most of our successful prospects originate in our org, just because we aren't working against the loss avoidance bias of other GMs not wanting to give up their crown jewels and offering prospects they have secretly soured on instead.
[/quo

If you are looking at a 5-year plan for the team, trading Donovan for Bubic is a much riskier move than trading for prospects. You mention A and AA. It's true, the further you get from the majors the more room you have to go wrong. Much more is known about AA and AAA. Single A is a crapshoot. The only viable major league player we currently have who was acquired as a prospect is Liberatore. Player evaluation and trade paralysis was a real problem. I'm hopeful that is better now.

So what if we targeted something in between - a MLB ready prospect from a team that doesn't have a spot for them and needs/wants a Donovan now?
Spencer Jones
Justin Crawford
Nolan McLean
Chase DeLauter
Trey Yesavage (dreaming...too late now)
Colt Emerson (if the Mariners keep Saurez?)

It would take more than Donovan for probably any of these, But you could be landing someone with a much higher % of success AND a much higher ceiling than just taking a handful or random lower minors prospects from somewhere on a teams top 10 list. And putting another new MLB Rookie on our roster for 2026 is NOT too early for where we are in a rebuild scenario. It could make us better now And make us better for years to come.

MLB-ready prospects is already part of this conversation.

Did you think we were talking about A ball players who were 4 years away?

I would hope that most or all of BD's trade return is MLB by mid 2027 at the latest.

That's usually where we end up. I fear the most likely scenario would be we don't get offered any of those MLB ready top prospects for just Donovan and so we keep him and later trade him at the deadline in 2027 for a Single A Jesus Baez long shot type. To get a true high ceiling and ready prospect, Bloom would need to package someone else - pick a surplus Catcher off our top 10 list maybe? Maybe more? Or he would need to pivot to another proven player like Gore or Babic, which comes with its own pros and cons. Its not as straightforward a trade as it seems, and I fear the "You're gonna hate a Donovan deal" thread will be accurate.

[Talkin' Baseball]

Explain to me "why" it is not a good idea? You'd prefer to trade our arguably best player and trade chip for someone more controlled but unknown?

Because players almost never sign extensions in their walk year and the almost never sign with them after declaring free agency. It happens sometimes with the Guerrero's and Judge's of the world, but I can think of few other examples. You squander your best trade chip for a pitcher who may be great during one year of a rebuild.

It worked for Goldy, Rolen, Edmonds, McGwire, Holliday. The STL Cardinals are much better at trading for a Star or plus player then extending them than they are at signing a top player out of Free Agency.

Are there examples of players doing this in STL, or elsewhere in the past 5 years? That seems like a practice from the past that is rarely practiced anymore.

Goldy was fairly recent memory, and that contract just ended 13 months ago.

That's one. I'll stick with almost never happens (even here).

You are right, its a risk, though for a Goldy level player in 2019, or hopefully a Bubic/Gore type player, they get a QO and we get a compensating draft pick, which is very valuable. Moreso than the level of prospects that franschises make available in these types of trades.

Conversely, how often do we trade for an A or AA level prospect and they turn into all stars like Donovan? Wainwright did, but how many recent examples? I content it is also rare, maybe moreso. Most of our successful prospects originate in our org, just because we aren't working against the loss avoidance bias of other GMs not wanting to give up their crown jewels and offering prospects they have secretly soured on instead.
[/quo

If you are looking at a 5-year plan for the team, trading Donovan for Bubic is a much riskier move than trading for prospects. You mention A and AA. It's true, the further you get from the majors the more room you have to go wrong. Much more is known about AA and AAA. Single A is a crapshoot. The only viable major league player we currently have who was acquired as a prospect is Liberatore. Player evaluation and trade paralysis was a real problem. I'm hopeful that is better now.

So what if we targeted something in between - a MLB ready prospect from a team that doesn't have a spot for them and needs/wants a Donovan now?
Spencer Jones
Justin Crawford
Nolan McLean
Chase DeLauter
Trey Yesavage (dreaming...too late now)
Colt Emerson (if the Mariners keep Saurez?)

It would take more than Donovan for probably any of these, But you could be landing someone with a much higher % of success AND a much higher ceiling than just taking a handful or random lower minors prospects from somewhere on a teams top 10 list. And putting another new MLB Rookie on our roster for 2026 is NOT too early for where we are in a rebuild scenario. It could make us better now And make us better for years to come.

MLB-ready prospects is already part of this conversation.

Did you think we were talking about A ball players who were 4 years away?

I would hope that most or all of BD's trade return is MLB by mid 2027 at the latest.

That's usually where we end up. I fear the most likely scenario would be we don't get offered any of those MLB ready top prospects for just Donovan and so we keep him and later trade him at the deadline in 2027 for a Single A Jesus Baez long shot type. To get a true high ceiling and ready prospect, Bloom would need to package someone else - pick a surplus Catcher off our top 10 list maybe? Maybe more? Or he would need to pivot to another proven player like Gore or Babic, which comes with its own pros and cons. Its not as straightforward a trade as it seems, and I fear the "You're gonna hate a Donovan deal" thread will be accurate.

Much too negative. There won't be a player with more teams legitimately interested in trading for him this winter than Donovan.