Wonder if Bloom has interest in 3rd baseman Murakami ?

[ecleme22]

I think it will work. For those who need immediate results this will be a very unpleasant experience. I don't expect every move to work out, but I do think the process will work. There is competence in the building.

Sure something will work sooner or later. The law of large numbers pretty much guarantees that.

I just think if we had both an owner who was willing to spend both smartly and aggressively and a pobo who could invest wisely while also building up the scouting and development system, we might shave years off of that turnaround time and avoid some missed opportunities in the meantime.

I think they will do this. We will end up quibbling about how aggressive is aggressive enough, but I believe it will be much better there is an order of operations at play here, and spending aggressively isn't first on the list.

I seems like we often disagree with our posts about how to approach things, but I respect your point of view. I am honestly interested in your opinion on something here- How long do you think it WILL take, and how long do you think it SHOULD take to get to this turnaround we talk about?

Thanks. Good questions. BTW - I hate this website. Just when I've typed up a thoughtful answer, and submit, I get logged out and lose it. So here goes v2.

How long will it take depends on what Bloom actually does, and on somewhat on luck. Best case - almost any roster can surprise, and if JJW plus others are given the chance and produce, and IF we are on pace to reach the playoffs at the deadline, I hope that Bloom will make some accretive moves and not stubbornly stick to some preset plan and sell off the 1 year contract SPs for prospects at the deadline again to some other "more deserving" team. Be ready to respond to what happens, if prospect succeed, then accelerate the rest of the build. And if prospects and others fail, then be ready to move on to the next thing and learn to evaluate talent faster than 4 years of mostly bad experience like Gorman.

If Bloom surprises some here and takes a middle ground in going after a few proven performers at the MLB level, I think it might not take that long. But if we do nothing but try to develop until the home grown players win on their own, we might flounder until we change strategies...or ownership.

I also feel strongly that retaining Oli and his staff is a liability at the MLB level. He might be OK at best, but we need a top 5 staff at the MLB level in player development, and this isn't it. Bloom has focused entirely on the minors for 2 years, now he needs to ensure we are getting top notch development at BOTH the majors and minors levels.

Meanwhile how long should it take? We've gotten out from under most of the really bad contract and the really old guys - Yadi, even Wainwright, Goldy, Mikolas, Fedde, others are history. And some of that was painful. So I feel like we deserve some kind of reward and reinvestment for that longsuffering to date. Contreras is Not a bad contact. Gray is expensive, but he does win games. Both could be keepers on a team that wants to win. Add in JJW, Maybe Hererra stays healthy and shows up at C, or maybe Crooks takes a step forward or Bernal promotes at some point. Then there's Mcgreevy and Libby. And hopefully the beginning of a bullpen. Maybe even Matthews depending on ST. We need a lot of other moves but some could be lateral. Bottom line - that's something of a core to build around for 2026 with more help on the way from the minors AND its already a drastically reduced commited payroll vs recent years. So if Ownership were willing to restore payroll to 180-200M range, and spent wisely - that would necessarily add a Significant level of additional proven talent, which Bloom could strategically direct to positions of need - more SPs, OF, and so on. All this taken together means we could realistically compete for the playoffs in 2026 with our payroll restored and the right moves made, and it wouldn't need to cost us the best pieces of our future either. Intrigingly, the Donovan for Gore (or someone similar) trade idea seems like one that could catapult our roster forward by 1 or more additional producers - if JJW can replace Donny at 2b and if we can also pickup a natural LF bat from FA or another trade. So we lose Donny, but gain JJW, a SP, and a LF, and commit to an additional mid-level contract. And we would still have more resources to spend before reaching anywhere close to 180M. There is a feasible path and it won't cost us our future. Just costs some smart $.

Now, I don't expect that even the best ideas executed by a genius POBO gets us to the WS in 2026. But IMO, even getting to the playoffs is a good goal. Playing October games gets this roster Valuable playoff experience. And whether we make it to the playoffs in 26 or not until 2030, I don't expect us to have real success in October until we have 1 or more likely several years of actual playoff experience under our belts. (So lets get that clock started). And also not until we upgrade some or all of the coaching/managerial staff.

What Bloom will definitely do early on:
1) trade vets.
2) acquire prospects
3. Lower payroll

Those are facts. And all this will happen very fast.

What Bloom has already done:
1) invested in player development.
2) invested in scouting.

So, we now have a system that 1) has prospects, 2) can develop prospects and 3) is more educated in player evaluation that plays into prospects we acquire and prospects we eventually trade (preventing Gallen, Sandy, Randy trades…),

Cardinals have already VERY quickly put together a prospect pipeline. And they’re growing it this offseason.


Now you may say, “well they can do this AND invest in the mlb roster too! They can, But if you do it too early, you could have a Contreras situation where you give a vet a 5 year deal, only to find out one year into the contract that you have like 5 good prospects who play the same position. Cards are making like 4 trades this offseason, at least. Why make big contract commitments if you don’t even know the return from those trades?

Thats not efficient.


Lastly, Bloom would not keep Oli and his staff if he thought they were detrimental to the plan. And he’s been here two years and knows more than us. You brought up Oli being bad for mlb development. That’s obviously conjecture on your part, but maybe bloom is building a system where the cards’ mlb roster isn’t treated as a developmental league.

[rockondlouie]

I think it will work. For those who need immediate results this will be a very unpleasant experience. I don't expect every move to work out, but I do think the process will work. There is competence in the building.

+1

(And BDWJr isn't going to even allow Bloom to enter into discussions about Murakami as he's NOT spending any big money this coming season, why can't people grasp this simple concept?)

Murakami is already being fitted for his Dodgers jersey, replacing M. Muncy.

[Talkin' Baseball]

I think it will work. For those who need immediate results this will be a very unpleasant experience. I don't expect every move to work out, but I do think the process will work. There is competence in the building.

Sure something will work sooner or later. The law of large numbers pretty much guarantees that.

I just think if we had both an owner who was willing to spend both smartly and aggressively and a pobo who could invest wisely while also building up the scouting and development system, we might shave years off of that turnaround time and avoid some missed opportunities in the meantime.

I think they will do this. We will end up quibbling about how aggressive is aggressive enough, but I believe it will be much better there is an order of operations at play here, and spending aggressively isn't first on the list.

I seems like we often disagree with our posts about how to approach things, but I respect your point of view. I am honestly interested in your opinion on something here- How long do you think it WILL take, and how long do you think it SHOULD take to get to this turnaround we talk about?

Thanks. Good questions. BTW - I hate this website. Just when I've typed up a thoughtful answer, and submit, I get logged out and lose it. So here goes v2.

How long will it take depends on what Bloom actually does, and on somewhat on luck. Best case - almost any roster can surprise, and if JJW plus others are given the chance and produce, and IF we are on pace to reach the playoffs at the deadline, I hope that Bloom will make some accretive moves and not stubbornly stick to some preset plan and sell off the 1 year contract SPs for prospects at the deadline again to some other "more deserving" team. Be ready to respond to what happens, if prospect succeed, then accelerate the rest of the build. And if prospects and others fail, then be ready to move on to the next thing and learn to evaluate talent faster than 4 years of mostly bad experience like Gorman.

If Bloom surprises some here and takes a middle ground in going after a few proven performers at the MLB level, I think it might not take that long. But if we do nothing but try to develop until the home grown players win on their own, we might flounder until we change strategies...or ownership.

I also feel strongly that retaining Oli and his staff is a liability at the MLB level. He might be OK at best, but we need a top 5 staff at the MLB level in player development, and this isn't it. Bloom has focused entirely on the minors for 2 years, now he needs to ensure we are getting top notch development at BOTH the majors and minors levels.

Meanwhile how long should it take? We've gotten out from under most of the really bad contract and the really old guys - Yadi, even Wainwright, Goldy, Mikolas, Fedde, others are history. And some of that was painful. So I feel like we deserve some kind of reward and reinvestment for that longsuffering to date. Contreras is Not a bad contact. Gray is expensive, but he does win games. Both could be keepers on a team that wants to win. Add in JJW, Maybe Hererra stays healthy and shows up at C, or maybe Crooks takes a step forward or Bernal promotes at some point. Then there's Mcgreevy and Libby. And hopefully the beginning of a bullpen. Maybe even Matthews depending on ST. We need a lot of other moves but some could be lateral. Bottom line - that's something of a core to build around for 2026 with more help on the way from the minors AND its already a drastically reduced commited payroll vs recent years. So if Ownership were willing to restore payroll to 180-200M range, and spent wisely - that would necessarily add a Significant level of additional proven talent, which Bloom could strategically direct to positions of need - more SPs, OF, and so on. All this taken together means we could realistically compete for the playoffs in 2026 with our payroll restored and the right moves made, and it wouldn't need to cost us the best pieces of our future either. Intrigingly, the Donovan for Gore (or someone similar) trade idea seems like one that could catapult our roster forward by 1 or more additional producers - if JJW can replace Donny at 2b and if we can also pickup a natural LF bat from FA or another trade. So we lose Donny, but gain JJW, a SP, and a LF, and commit to an additional mid-level contract. And we would still have more resources to spend before reaching anywhere close to 180M. There is a feasible path and it won't cost us our future. Just costs some smart $.

Now, I don't expect that even the best ideas executed by a genius POBO gets us to the WS in 2026. But IMO, even getting to the playoffs is a good goal. Playing October games gets this roster Valuable playoff experience. And whether we make it to the playoffs in 26 or not until 2030, I don't expect us to have real success in October until we have 1 or more likely several years of actual playoff experience under our belts. (So lets get that clock started). And also not until we upgrade some or all of the coaching/managerial staff.

I want them to spend, and I don't think the levels you mention are out of line, but I don't want them to do it now. Why?

#1- The CBA. I want them to resolve that first because it could produce new rules that are favorable to the Cardinals. Purely speculation, and I'll put numbers to it just to make the illustration more tangible. What if they come out of the new CBA with a salary cap of 241M (where the luxury tax threshhold is today)? The teams over the threshhold this season were the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox, Padres, Cubs, Blue Jays and Astros. What if they have to divest their payroll down to certain levels (perhaps over time) to come into compliance? Not only are they longer bidding up free agents, but they would undoubtedly be sending players onto the market. With a low payroll and no long term commitments the Cardinals would be in a position to capitalize on that. That's when I want them to spend. With the teams currently over the threshhold currently, not in the market to add payroll it would make it easier to extend our own players. Spend then. There may also be adjustments to baseball's revenue streams that are helpful.

#2- I want them to re-calibrate the roster over the next 13 months before they spend. Exchange roster redundancies and players who won't be here after the CBA for the best talent we can. Not all of them will work out, and some of the pieces won't fit well together- but some of them will. If we can take a handful of workable players we have and add another handful in the next season, we will narrow down the number of spots we have to fill. The smaller that number is, the more you can spend on each piece you bring in to fill these spots. Narrow the number of spots down, identify them, then spend.

They don't have to wait until the prospects are winning on their own to begin to spend, but please clear up these two things before you start cutting checks.

[Talkin' Baseball]

I think it will work. For those who need immediate results this will be a very unpleasant experience. I don't expect every move to work out, but I do think the process will work. There is competence in the building.

+1

(And BDWJr isn't going to even allow Bloom to enter into discussions about Murakami as he's NOT spending any big money this coming season, why can't people grasp this simple concept?)

Murakami is already being fitted for his Dodgers jersey, replacing M. Muncy.

They will be disappointed. Shame about that.

[Carp4Cy]

I think it will work. For those who need immediate results this will be a very unpleasant experience. I don't expect every move to work out, but I do think the process will work. There is competence in the building.

Sure something will work sooner or later. The law of large numbers pretty much guarantees that.

I just think if we had both an owner who was willing to spend both smartly and aggressively and a pobo who could invest wisely while also building up the scouting and development system, we might shave years off of that turnaround time and avoid some missed opportunities in the meantime.

I think they will do this. We will end up quibbling about how aggressive is aggressive enough, but I believe it will be much better there is an order of operations at play here, and spending aggressively isn't first on the list.

I seems like we often disagree with our posts about how to approach things, but I respect your point of view. I am honestly interested in your opinion on something here- How long do you think it WILL take, and how long do you think it SHOULD take to get to this turnaround we talk about?

Thanks. Good questions. BTW - I hate this website. Just when I've typed up a thoughtful answer, and submit, I get logged out and lose it. So here goes v2.

How long will it take depends on what Bloom actually does, and on somewhat on luck. Best case - almost any roster can surprise, and if JJW plus others are given the chance and produce, and IF we are on pace to reach the playoffs at the deadline, I hope that Bloom will make some accretive moves and not stubbornly stick to some preset plan and sell off the 1 year contract SPs for prospects at the deadline again to some other "more deserving" team. Be ready to respond to what happens, if prospect succeed, then accelerate the rest of the build. And if prospects and others fail, then be ready to move on to the next thing and learn to evaluate talent faster than 4 years of mostly bad experience like Gorman.

If Bloom surprises some here and takes a middle ground in going after a few proven performers at the MLB level, I think it might not take that long. But if we do nothing but try to develop until the home grown players win on their own, we might flounder until we change strategies...or ownership.

I also feel strongly that retaining Oli and his staff is a liability at the MLB level. He might be OK at best, but we need a top 5 staff at the MLB level in player development, and this isn't it. Bloom has focused entirely on the minors for 2 years, now he needs to ensure we are getting top notch development at BOTH the majors and minors levels.

Meanwhile how long should it take? We've gotten out from under most of the really bad contract and the really old guys - Yadi, even Wainwright, Goldy, Mikolas, Fedde, others are history. And some of that was painful. So I feel like we deserve some kind of reward and reinvestment for that longsuffering to date. Contreras is Not a bad contact. Gray is expensive, but he does win games. Both could be keepers on a team that wants to win. Add in JJW, Maybe Hererra stays healthy and shows up at C, or maybe Crooks takes a step forward or Bernal promotes at some point. Then there's Mcgreevy and Libby. And hopefully the beginning of a bullpen. Maybe even Matthews depending on ST. We need a lot of other moves but some could be lateral. Bottom line - that's something of a core to build around for 2026 with more help on the way from the minors AND its already a drastically reduced commited payroll vs recent years. So if Ownership were willing to restore payroll to 180-200M range, and spent wisely - that would necessarily add a Significant level of additional proven talent, which Bloom could strategically direct to positions of need - more SPs, OF, and so on. All this taken together means we could realistically compete for the playoffs in 2026 with our payroll restored and the right moves made, and it wouldn't need to cost us the best pieces of our future either. Intrigingly, the Donovan for Gore (or someone similar) trade idea seems like one that could catapult our roster forward by 1 or more additional producers - if JJW can replace Donny at 2b and if we can also pickup a natural LF bat from FA or another trade. So we lose Donny, but gain JJW, a SP, and a LF, and commit to an additional mid-level contract. And we would still have more resources to spend before reaching anywhere close to 180M. There is a feasible path and it won't cost us our future. Just costs some smart $.

Now, I don't expect that even the best ideas executed by a genius POBO gets us to the WS in 2026. But IMO, even getting to the playoffs is a good goal. Playing October games gets this roster Valuable playoff experience. And whether we make it to the playoffs in 26 or not until 2030, I don't expect us to have real success in October until we have 1 or more likely several years of actual playoff experience under our belts. (So lets get that clock started). And also not until we upgrade some or all of the coaching/managerial staff.

I want them to spend, and I don't think the levels you mention are out of line, but I don't want them to do it now. Why?

#1- The CBA. I want them to resolve that first because it could produce new rules that are favorable to the Cardinals. Purely speculation, and I'll put numbers to it just to make the illustration more tangible. What if they come out of the new CBA with a salary cap of 241M (where the luxury tax threshhold is today)? The teams over the threshhold this season were the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox, Padres, Cubs, Blue Jays and Astros. What if they have to divest their payroll down to certain levels (perhaps over time) to come into compliance? Not only are they longer bidding up free agents, but they would undoubtedly be sending players onto the market. With a low payroll and no long term commitments the Cardinals would be in a position to capitalize on that. That's when I want them to spend. With the teams currently over the threshhold currently, not in the market to add payroll it would make it easier to extend our own players. Spend then. There may also be adjustments to baseball's revenue streams that are helpful.

#2- I want them to re-calibrate the roster over the next 13 months before they spend. Exchange roster redundancies and players who won't be here after the CBA for the best talent we can. Not all of them will work out, and some of the pieces won't fit well together- but some of them will. If we can take a handful of workable players we have and add another handful in the next season, we will narrow down the number of spots we have to fill. The smaller that number is, the more you can spend on each piece you bring in to fill these spots. Narrow the number of spots down, identify them, then spend.

They don't have to wait until the prospects are winning on their own to begin to spend, but please clear up these two things before you start cutting checks.

Good post - #1 is the first time I've seen the potential results of the CBA game-planned that clearly. And yeah if you believe this to be likely, it does make sense to not commit ALL our dry powder before a major rules reset. Though I do think maybe we could still make some strategic moves this year if there is a good opportunity to not overpay. The right player at an affordable price giving plus production will still be a winning contract even if price levels for elites fall somewhat in the future. We just maybe don't want to go into any new $30M AAV type contracts.

#2 I fully agree we need this. But I'd like to see some of the subtracting and the adding back occur simultaneously. That's why I'm thinking you trade surplus guys (like Donovan if we are committed to trading him) for a proven producer at a position of need. And if we are acquiring SP or position flexible OFs who can hit in exchange for surplus C or IF, we already know we need those both now and in the future. No team can have too many good SPs, and we have zero plus natural OF. So yes, Bloom has work to do on the roster - I just hope he can get good value And good utility back for his trades and not just be getting rid of surplus for $ savings or to just clear the roster for more question marks who aren't here yet.

[ecleme22]

I think it will work. For those who need immediate results this will be a very unpleasant experience. I don't expect every move to work out, but I do think the process will work. There is competence in the building.

Sure something will work sooner or later. The law of large numbers pretty much guarantees that.

I just think if we had both an owner who was willing to spend both smartly and aggressively and a pobo who could invest wisely while also building up the scouting and development system, we might shave years off of that turnaround time and avoid some missed opportunities in the meantime.

I think they will do this. We will end up quibbling about how aggressive is aggressive enough, but I believe it will be much better there is an order of operations at play here, and spending aggressively isn't first on the list.

I seems like we often disagree with our posts about how to approach things, but I respect your point of view. I am honestly interested in your opinion on something here- How long do you think it WILL take, and how long do you think it SHOULD take to get to this turnaround we talk about?

Thanks. Good questions. BTW - I hate this website. Just when I've typed up a thoughtful answer, and submit, I get logged out and lose it. So here goes v2.

How long will it take depends on what Bloom actually does, and on somewhat on luck. Best case - almost any roster can surprise, and if JJW plus others are given the chance and produce, and IF we are on pace to reach the playoffs at the deadline, I hope that Bloom will make some accretive moves and not stubbornly stick to some preset plan and sell off the 1 year contract SPs for prospects at the deadline again to some other "more deserving" team. Be ready to respond to what happens, if prospect succeed, then accelerate the rest of the build. And if prospects and others fail, then be ready to move on to the next thing and learn to evaluate talent faster than 4 years of mostly bad experience like Gorman.

If Bloom surprises some here and takes a middle ground in going after a few proven performers at the MLB level, I think it might not take that long. But if we do nothing but try to develop until the home grown players win on their own, we might flounder until we change strategies...or ownership.

I also feel strongly that retaining Oli and his staff is a liability at the MLB level. He might be OK at best, but we need a top 5 staff at the MLB level in player development, and this isn't it. Bloom has focused entirely on the minors for 2 years, now he needs to ensure we are getting top notch development at BOTH the majors and minors levels.

Meanwhile how long should it take? We've gotten out from under most of the really bad contract and the really old guys - Yadi, even Wainwright, Goldy, Mikolas, Fedde, others are history. And some of that was painful. So I feel like we deserve some kind of reward and reinvestment for that longsuffering to date. Contreras is Not a bad contact. Gray is expensive, but he does win games. Both could be keepers on a team that wants to win. Add in JJW, Maybe Hererra stays healthy and shows up at C, or maybe Crooks takes a step forward or Bernal promotes at some point. Then there's Mcgreevy and Libby. And hopefully the beginning of a bullpen. Maybe even Matthews depending on ST. We need a lot of other moves but some could be lateral. Bottom line - that's something of a core to build around for 2026 with more help on the way from the minors AND its already a drastically reduced commited payroll vs recent years. So if Ownership were willing to restore payroll to 180-200M range, and spent wisely - that would necessarily add a Significant level of additional proven talent, which Bloom could strategically direct to positions of need - more SPs, OF, and so on. All this taken together means we could realistically compete for the playoffs in 2026 with our payroll restored and the right moves made, and it wouldn't need to cost us the best pieces of our future either. Intrigingly, the Donovan for Gore (or someone similar) trade idea seems like one that could catapult our roster forward by 1 or more additional producers - if JJW can replace Donny at 2b and if we can also pickup a natural LF bat from FA or another trade. So we lose Donny, but gain JJW, a SP, and a LF, and commit to an additional mid-level contract. And we would still have more resources to spend before reaching anywhere close to 180M. There is a feasible path and it won't cost us our future. Just costs some smart $.

Now, I don't expect that even the best ideas executed by a genius POBO gets us to the WS in 2026. But IMO, even getting to the playoffs is a good goal. Playing October games gets this roster Valuable playoff experience. And whether we make it to the playoffs in 26 or not until 2030, I don't expect us to have real success in October until we have 1 or more likely several years of actual playoff experience under our belts. (So lets get that clock started). And also not until we upgrade some or all of the coaching/managerial staff.

I want them to spend, and I don't think the levels you mention are out of line, but I don't want them to do it now. Why?

#1- The CBA. I want them to resolve that first because it could produce new rules that are favorable to the Cardinals. Purely speculation, and I'll put numbers to it just to make the illustration more tangible. What if they come out of the new CBA with a salary cap of 241M (where the luxury tax threshhold is today)? The teams over the threshhold this season were the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox, Padres, Cubs, Blue Jays and Astros. What if they have to divest their payroll down to certain levels (perhaps over time) to come into compliance? Not only are they longer bidding up free agents, but they would undoubtedly be sending players onto the market. With a low payroll and no long term commitments the Cardinals would be in a position to capitalize on that. That's when I want them to spend. With the teams currently over the threshhold currently, not in the market to add payroll it would make it easier to extend our own players. Spend then. There may also be adjustments to baseball's revenue streams that are helpful.

#2- I want them to re-calibrate the roster over the next 13 months before they spend. Exchange roster redundancies and players who won't be here after the CBA for the best talent we can. Not all of them will work out, and some of the pieces won't fit well together- but some of them will. If we can take a handful of workable players we have and add another handful in the next season, we will narrow down the number of spots we have to fill. The smaller that number is, the more you can spend on each piece you bring in to fill these spots. Narrow the number of spots down, identify them, then spend.

They don't have to wait until the prospects are winning on their own to begin to spend, but please clear up these two things before you start cutting checks.

Good post - #1 is the first time I've seen the potential results of the CBA game-planned that clearly. And yeah if you believe this to be likely, it does make sense to not commit ALL our dry powder before a major rules reset. Though I do think maybe we could still make some strategic moves this year if there is a good opportunity to not overpay. The right player at an affordable price giving plus production will still be a winning contract even if price levels for elites fall somewhat in the future. We just maybe don't want to go into any new $30M AAV type contracts.

#2 I fully agree we need this. But I'd like to see some of the subtracting and the adding back occur simultaneously. That's why I'm thinking you trade surplus guys (like Donovan if we are committed to trading him) for a proven producer at a position of need. And if we are acquiring SP or position flexible OFs who can hit in exchange for surplus C or IF, we already know we need those both now and in the future. No team can have too many good SPs, and we have zero plus natural OF. So yes, Bloom has work to do on the roster - I just hope he can get good value And good utility back for his trades and not just be getting rid of surplus for $ savings or to just clear the roster for more question marks who aren't here yet.

#2 BD has two years left on his deal. You don’t trade him for a similar timetable player. For an mlb ready AAA player? Sure.

[Talkin' Baseball]

I think it will work. For those who need immediate results this will be a very unpleasant experience. I don't expect every move to work out, but I do think the process will work. There is competence in the building.

Sure something will work sooner or later. The law of large numbers pretty much guarantees that.

I just think if we had both an owner who was willing to spend both smartly and aggressively and a pobo who could invest wisely while also building up the scouting and development system, we might shave years off of that turnaround time and avoid some missed opportunities in the meantime.

I think they will do this. We will end up quibbling about how aggressive is aggressive enough, but I believe it will be much better there is an order of operations at play here, and spending aggressively isn't first on the list.

I seems like we often disagree with our posts about how to approach things, but I respect your point of view. I am honestly interested in your opinion on something here- How long do you think it WILL take, and how long do you think it SHOULD take to get to this turnaround we talk about?

Thanks. Good questions. BTW - I hate this website. Just when I've typed up a thoughtful answer, and submit, I get logged out and lose it. So here goes v2.

How long will it take depends on what Bloom actually does, and on somewhat on luck. Best case - almost any roster can surprise, and if JJW plus others are given the chance and produce, and IF we are on pace to reach the playoffs at the deadline, I hope that Bloom will make some accretive moves and not stubbornly stick to some preset plan and sell off the 1 year contract SPs for prospects at the deadline again to some other "more deserving" team. Be ready to respond to what happens, if prospect succeed, then accelerate the rest of the build. And if prospects and others fail, then be ready to move on to the next thing and learn to evaluate talent faster than 4 years of mostly bad experience like Gorman.

If Bloom surprises some here and takes a middle ground in going after a few proven performers at the MLB level, I think it might not take that long. But if we do nothing but try to develop until the home grown players win on their own, we might flounder until we change strategies...or ownership.

I also feel strongly that retaining Oli and his staff is a liability at the MLB level. He might be OK at best, but we need a top 5 staff at the MLB level in player development, and this isn't it. Bloom has focused entirely on the minors for 2 years, now he needs to ensure we are getting top notch development at BOTH the majors and minors levels.

Meanwhile how long should it take? We've gotten out from under most of the really bad contract and the really old guys - Yadi, even Wainwright, Goldy, Mikolas, Fedde, others are history. And some of that was painful. So I feel like we deserve some kind of reward and reinvestment for that longsuffering to date. Contreras is Not a bad contact. Gray is expensive, but he does win games. Both could be keepers on a team that wants to win. Add in JJW, Maybe Hererra stays healthy and shows up at C, or maybe Crooks takes a step forward or Bernal promotes at some point. Then there's Mcgreevy and Libby. And hopefully the beginning of a bullpen. Maybe even Matthews depending on ST. We need a lot of other moves but some could be lateral. Bottom line - that's something of a core to build around for 2026 with more help on the way from the minors AND its already a drastically reduced commited payroll vs recent years. So if Ownership were willing to restore payroll to 180-200M range, and spent wisely - that would necessarily add a Significant level of additional proven talent, which Bloom could strategically direct to positions of need - more SPs, OF, and so on. All this taken together means we could realistically compete for the playoffs in 2026 with our payroll restored and the right moves made, and it wouldn't need to cost us the best pieces of our future either. Intrigingly, the Donovan for Gore (or someone similar) trade idea seems like one that could catapult our roster forward by 1 or more additional producers - if JJW can replace Donny at 2b and if we can also pickup a natural LF bat from FA or another trade. So we lose Donny, but gain JJW, a SP, and a LF, and commit to an additional mid-level contract. And we would still have more resources to spend before reaching anywhere close to 180M. There is a feasible path and it won't cost us our future. Just costs some smart $.

Now, I don't expect that even the best ideas executed by a genius POBO gets us to the WS in 2026. But IMO, even getting to the playoffs is a good goal. Playing October games gets this roster Valuable playoff experience. And whether we make it to the playoffs in 26 or not until 2030, I don't expect us to have real success in October until we have 1 or more likely several years of actual playoff experience under our belts. (So lets get that clock started). And also not until we upgrade some or all of the coaching/managerial staff.

I want them to spend, and I don't think the levels you mention are out of line, but I don't want them to do it now. Why?

#1- The CBA. I want them to resolve that first because it could produce new rules that are favorable to the Cardinals. Purely speculation, and I'll put numbers to it just to make the illustration more tangible. What if they come out of the new CBA with a salary cap of 241M (where the luxury tax threshhold is today)? The teams over the threshhold this season were the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox, Padres, Cubs, Blue Jays and Astros. What if they have to divest their payroll down to certain levels (perhaps over time) to come into compliance? Not only are they longer bidding up free agents, but they would undoubtedly be sending players onto the market. With a low payroll and no long term commitments the Cardinals would be in a position to capitalize on that. That's when I want them to spend. With the teams currently over the threshhold currently, not in the market to add payroll it would make it easier to extend our own players. Spend then. There may also be adjustments to baseball's revenue streams that are helpful.

#2- I want them to re-calibrate the roster over the next 13 months before they spend. Exchange roster redundancies and players who won't be here after the CBA for the best talent we can. Not all of them will work out, and some of the pieces won't fit well together- but some of them will. If we can take a handful of workable players we have and add another handful in the next season, we will narrow down the number of spots we have to fill. The smaller that number is, the more you can spend on each piece you bring in to fill these spots. Narrow the number of spots down, identify them, then spend.

They don't have to wait until the prospects are winning on their own to begin to spend, but please clear up these two things before you start cutting checks.

Good post - #1 is the first time I've seen the potential results of the CBA game-planned that clearly. And yeah if you believe this to be likely, it does make sense to not commit ALL our dry powder before a major rules reset. Though I do think maybe we could still make some strategic moves this year if there is a good opportunity to not overpay. The right player at an affordable price giving plus production will still be a winning contract even if price levels for elites fall somewhat in the future. We just maybe don't want to go into any new $30M AAV type contracts.

#2 I fully agree we need this. But I'd like to see some of the subtracting and the adding back occur simultaneously. That's why I'm thinking you trade surplus guys (like Donovan if we are committed to trading him) for a proven producer at a position of need. And if we are acquiring SP or position flexible OFs who can hit in exchange for surplus C or IF, we already know we need those both now and in the future. No team can have too many good SPs, and we have zero plus natural OF. So yes, Bloom has work to do on the roster - I just hope he can get good value And good utility back for his trades and not just be getting rid of surplus for $ savings or to just clear the roster for more question marks who aren't here yet.

I'm saying don't spend any money that isn't on a one year deal.

Also, I'm saying the value (not every time but at this time) is in getting minor league prospects and fewer major league players. Don't roster them next year and don't plan to bring them up next year. If they are not on the 40-man roster when the lockout occurs, they continue to play in the minor leagues. Their development is not interrupted. Be ready to roll when the lockout ends with your prospects and your payroll.

[Talkin' Baseball]

I think it will work. For those who need immediate results this will be a very unpleasant experience. I don't expect every move to work out, but I do think the process will work. There is competence in the building.

Sure something will work sooner or later. The law of large numbers pretty much guarantees that.

I just think if we had both an owner who was willing to spend both smartly and aggressively and a pobo who could invest wisely while also building up the scouting and development system, we might shave years off of that turnaround time and avoid some missed opportunities in the meantime.

I think they will do this. We will end up quibbling about how aggressive is aggressive enough, but I believe it will be much better there is an order of operations at play here, and spending aggressively isn't first on the list.

I seems like we often disagree with our posts about how to approach things, but I respect your point of view. I am honestly interested in your opinion on something here- How long do you think it WILL take, and how long do you think it SHOULD take to get to this turnaround we talk about?

Thanks. Good questions. BTW - I hate this website. Just when I've typed up a thoughtful answer, and submit, I get logged out and lose it. So here goes v2.

How long will it take depends on what Bloom actually does, and on somewhat on luck. Best case - almost any roster can surprise, and if JJW plus others are given the chance and produce, and IF we are on pace to reach the playoffs at the deadline, I hope that Bloom will make some accretive moves and not stubbornly stick to some preset plan and sell off the 1 year contract SPs for prospects at the deadline again to some other "more deserving" team. Be ready to respond to what happens, if prospect succeed, then accelerate the rest of the build. And if prospects and others fail, then be ready to move on to the next thing and learn to evaluate talent faster than 4 years of mostly bad experience like Gorman.

If Bloom surprises some here and takes a middle ground in going after a few proven performers at the MLB level, I think it might not take that long. But if we do nothing but try to develop until the home grown players win on their own, we might flounder until we change strategies...or ownership.

I also feel strongly that retaining Oli and his staff is a liability at the MLB level. He might be OK at best, but we need a top 5 staff at the MLB level in player development, and this isn't it. Bloom has focused entirely on the minors for 2 years, now he needs to ensure we are getting top notch development at BOTH the majors and minors levels.

Meanwhile how long should it take? We've gotten out from under most of the really bad contract and the really old guys - Yadi, even Wainwright, Goldy, Mikolas, Fedde, others are history. And some of that was painful. So I feel like we deserve some kind of reward and reinvestment for that longsuffering to date. Contreras is Not a bad contact. Gray is expensive, but he does win games. Both could be keepers on a team that wants to win. Add in JJW, Maybe Hererra stays healthy and shows up at C, or maybe Crooks takes a step forward or Bernal promotes at some point. Then there's Mcgreevy and Libby. And hopefully the beginning of a bullpen. Maybe even Matthews depending on ST. We need a lot of other moves but some could be lateral. Bottom line - that's something of a core to build around for 2026 with more help on the way from the minors AND its already a drastically reduced commited payroll vs recent years. So if Ownership were willing to restore payroll to 180-200M range, and spent wisely - that would necessarily add a Significant level of additional proven talent, which Bloom could strategically direct to positions of need - more SPs, OF, and so on. All this taken together means we could realistically compete for the playoffs in 2026 with our payroll restored and the right moves made, and it wouldn't need to cost us the best pieces of our future either. Intrigingly, the Donovan for Gore (or someone similar) trade idea seems like one that could catapult our roster forward by 1 or more additional producers - if JJW can replace Donny at 2b and if we can also pickup a natural LF bat from FA or another trade. So we lose Donny, but gain JJW, a SP, and a LF, and commit to an additional mid-level contract. And we would still have more resources to spend before reaching anywhere close to 180M. There is a feasible path and it won't cost us our future. Just costs some smart $.

Now, I don't expect that even the best ideas executed by a genius POBO gets us to the WS in 2026. But IMO, even getting to the playoffs is a good goal. Playing October games gets this roster Valuable playoff experience. And whether we make it to the playoffs in 26 or not until 2030, I don't expect us to have real success in October until we have 1 or more likely several years of actual playoff experience under our belts. (So lets get that clock started). And also not until we upgrade some or all of the coaching/managerial staff.

I want them to spend, and I don't think the levels you mention are out of line, but I don't want them to do it now. Why?

#1- The CBA. I want them to resolve that first because it could produce new rules that are favorable to the Cardinals. Purely speculation, and I'll put numbers to it just to make the illustration more tangible. What if they come out of the new CBA with a salary cap of 241M (where the luxury tax threshhold is today)? The teams over the threshhold this season were the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox, Padres, Cubs, Blue Jays and Astros. What if they have to divest their payroll down to certain levels (perhaps over time) to come into compliance? Not only are they longer bidding up free agents, but they would undoubtedly be sending players onto the market. With a low payroll and no long term commitments the Cardinals would be in a position to capitalize on that. That's when I want them to spend. With the teams currently over the threshhold currently, not in the market to add payroll it would make it easier to extend our own players. Spend then. There may also be adjustments to baseball's revenue streams that are helpful.

#2- I want them to re-calibrate the roster over the next 13 months before they spend. Exchange roster redundancies and players who won't be here after the CBA for the best talent we can. Not all of them will work out, and some of the pieces won't fit well together- but some of them will. If we can take a handful of workable players we have and add another handful in the next season, we will narrow down the number of spots we have to fill. The smaller that number is, the more you can spend on each piece you bring in to fill these spots. Narrow the number of spots down, identify them, then spend.

They don't have to wait until the prospects are winning on their own to begin to spend, but please clear up these two things before you start cutting checks.

Good post - #1 is the first time I've seen the potential results of the CBA game-planned that clearly. And yeah if you believe this to be likely, it does make sense to not commit ALL our dry powder before a major rules reset. Though I do think maybe we could still make some strategic moves this year if there is a good opportunity to not overpay. The right player at an affordable price giving plus production will still be a winning contract even if price levels for elites fall somewhat in the future. We just maybe don't want to go into any new $30M AAV type contracts.

#2 I fully agree we need this. But I'd like to see some of the subtracting and the adding back occur simultaneously. That's why I'm thinking you trade surplus guys (like Donovan if we are committed to trading him) for a proven producer at a position of need. And if we are acquiring SP or position flexible OFs who can hit in exchange for surplus C or IF, we already know we need those both now and in the future. No team can have too many good SPs, and we have zero plus natural OF. So yes, Bloom has work to do on the roster - I just hope he can get good value And good utility back for his trades and not just be getting rid of surplus for $ savings or to just clear the roster for more question marks who aren't here yet.

I'm saying don't spend any money that isn't on a one year deal.

Also, I'm saying the value (not every time but at this time) is in getting minor league prospects and fewer major league players. Don't roster them next year and don't plan to bring them up next year. If they are not on the 40-man roster when the lockout occurs, they continue to play in the minor leagues. Their development is not interrupted. Be ready to roll when the lockout ends with your prospects and your payroll.

Use the time in between to get your house in order, because this house hasn't been in order for 10 years.

[redbirdfan51]

Dodgers, Mariners, Giants, Padres,Mets and Yankees, in that order.

[An Old Friend]

I wouldn’t get in on the bidding. There’s almost no way he lives up to whatever hype he’s going to get. He has big swing and miss over there and word is struggled with velocity.

Ohtani sure didn’t live up to the hype did he? Nor Yamamoto or Icharo…

So you’re suggesting he’s going to be like them just because he’s from the same area of the world?

Why would his massive strikeout numbers not give you any pause to anoint him a generational star?

I’m saying other stars in that league have transitioned very well to become a stars in the major league and even increased their production after moving here.

He’s not facing college or minor league pitching so don’t handicap his production and assume there’ll be a huge drop off. We should scout him like we would anybody else and offer accordingly. Maybe we don’t win the bid but we need to be interested in not wright off Opportunities.

Meanwhile, you’ll find naysayers on this board regarding every single potential trade or free agent signing or prospect. We can’t become victims to fear, or we will never find the opportunities to make this club better. at some point you have to take a risk, it just needs to be a smart one.

You’re talking about a player who had:
3rd percentile swinging strike rate
3rd percentile k-rate
1st percentile zone contact rate
7th percentile range / defensive value

If I’m Bloom, I’m not wasting time. That isn’t the profile of a player they should pursue.

[Talkin' Baseball]

I wouldn’t get in on the bidding. There’s almost no way he lives up to whatever hype he’s going to get. He has big swing and miss over there and word is struggled with velocity.

Ohtani sure didn’t live up to the hype did he? Nor Yamamoto or Icharo…

So you’re suggesting he’s going to be like them just because he’s from the same area of the world?

Why would his massive strikeout numbers not give you any pause to anoint him a generational star?

I’m saying other stars in that league have transitioned very well to become a stars in the major league and even increased their production after moving here.

He’s not facing college or minor league pitching so don’t handicap his production and assume there’ll be a huge drop off. We should scout him like we would anybody else and offer accordingly. Maybe we don’t win the bid but we need to be interested in not wright off Opportunities.

Meanwhile, you’ll find naysayers on this board regarding every single potential trade or free agent signing or prospect. We can’t become victims to fear, or we will never find the opportunities to make this club better. at some point you have to take a risk, it just needs to be a smart one.

You’re talking about a player who had:
3rd percentile swinging strike rate
3rd percentile k-rate
1st percentile zone contact rate
7th percentile range / defensive value

If I’m Bloom, I’m not wasting time. That isn’t the profile of a player they should pursue.

Yeah, whoever signs him is going to be disappointed.