Hate to think this but we aren't far from Royals territory

[C-Unit]

We averaged 5,917 more fans per game this season. After the 1985 debacle they didn't make the postseason for 29 years. Won a WS in 2015 and within 3 season lost 104 games. Took them 9 seasons after the WS to post a winning record.

We have to get rid of the mentality of 5 games over .500 at the all star break is an automatic sell off like we did this season.

Yeah, you have a point. For the most part, if you get in you have a chance and with expanded playoffs it should be a bit easier to set your sights on a playoff spot, and less tempting to go the other way.

But a competitive roster needs to be geared towards winning 90-94 games year in year out. Not 83-85. Anything happens if you get in, yes. But there is still a difference between a 94-win team and a 85, the main difference being that you aren't entirely counting on luck to carry you (just to make the playoff spot, even).

The 2006 team was 5 games over .500.

My point for starting this thread is this isn't easy. We aren't going to be the Dodgers winning 90+ games every year. Revenue is down significantly.

Yeah but the 2006 team was on the low end for the win totals of all the teams we had around that era. Nowadays, that's about what our target seems to be.

You're right the path ahead is tough. But you have to get back to being a consistent 90-94 win team if you want to call yourself a team with a chance to win it all.

Cleveland has won 90+ games 6 times since 2016 (and 35-25 in the covid year).

And then we know about Milwaukee, they've won 90+ games 5 times since 2018.

So yes its hard but those are two examples of teams that can do it without revenues in their favor. We can also circle teams with higher revenues who spend poorly and don't get bang for their buck, and end up with disappointing teams.

So it can be done. If Bloom/Cerfolio are successful with what they are setting out to do, we should be seeing a better organization. And, Cerfolio came from that Cleveland system that has been so good.

The 2006 team was on the low end of wins total because of injuries not because of lack of talent they got healthy at the right time. That’s what makes the argument of the 2006 team being an example of the just get in and anything can happen so dumb

That's exactly right they weren't just some team that got lucky they were still a team full of seasoned veteran players

[ScotchMIrish]

We averaged 5,917 more fans per game this season. After the 1985 debacle they didn't make the postseason for 29 years. Won a WS in 2015 and within 3 season lost 104 games. Took them 9 seasons after the WS to post a winning record.

We have to get rid of the mentality of 5 games over .500 at the all star break is an automatic sell off like we did this season.

This team isn't as good as KC right now. And probably not next year if they stay the course to a full rebuild aiming at 2027. But there is a difference between STL and KC. Once STL has a functioning farm system again and that investment produces results then they should have the fan base and larger TV revenues to allow them to spend more than KC.

The rational fans on this forum understand what has to happen to see a team challenge for a WS title again. We can not compete with the big market teams spending money. No chance of having a payroll remotely close to LAD or NYY. We have to have a better farm system producing results AND spend what we do have the right way.

When the farm starts sending quality talent up it will be time to spend again. I believe if they market appropriately this team has the fan/market base to allow them to spend near $200mil on major league salaries. I don't KNOW this but gut tells me the size and history of baseball in STL should generate revenues supporting that. So in 2027 when we have shaken out a few higher end controlled talents then it will be time to supplement with free agents.

Bummer some here want instant gratification. Can't help them cause they won't get it even if STL spent like they want. The core is lacking.

That's the new reality. The new tv deal isn't helping promote the team as much as the previous one - that's another factor in revenue.

[ecleme22]

“We have to get rid of the mentality of 5 games over .500 at the all star break is an automatic sell off like we did this season.”

That’s not a “mentality.” It’s something that just happened last year.

And it proved to be a (bleep) good idea.

[ScotchMIrish]

“We have to get rid of the mentality of 5 games over .500 at the all star break is an automatic sell off like we did this season.”

That’s not a “mentality.” It’s something that just happened last year.

And it proved to be a (drat) good idea.

Perhaps since apparently no starting pitching was available but Ramon Laureano would have looked good in a Cardinals uniform if we could have acquired him without giving too much.

[Alex Reyes Cy Young]

We averaged 5,917 more fans per game this season. After the 1985 debacle they didn't make the postseason for 29 years. Won a WS in 2015 and within 3 season lost 104 games. Took them 9 seasons after the WS to post a winning record.

We have to get rid of the mentality of 5 games over .500 at the all star break is an automatic sell off like we did this season.

I’m assuming you didn’t see many games. This team was poorly designed. Now that Johnnie Moe Moe is gohn time to retool and actually build a roster that makes sense.

I am hoping this is what happens

[ecleme22]

“We have to get rid of the mentality of 5 games over .500 at the all star break is an automatic sell off like we did this season.”

That’s not a “mentality.” It’s something that just happened last year.

And it proved to be a (drat) good idea.

Perhaps since apparently no starting pitching was available but Ramon Laureano would have looked good in a Cardinals uniform if we could have acquired him without giving too much.

Oh god, you have no clue.

[mattmitchl44]

The Cardinals ONLY path back to being a consistently successful organization is to get (back) to having a Top 5 farm system in terms of delivering young, cost controlled players to the ML team. They are, at least, working their way in that direction.

They have to get better about identifying, obtaining, and developing players for the ML team.

And obtaining such players mostly comes down to:

(1) drafting better (and drafting higher over the short term gives you an opportunity to draft better)
(2) better international scouting and signing, and
(3) trading away veteran players in seasons when you aren't ready to "win now" for prospects you want from other teams.

If you fail to do (3), you don't profit from it, and you may end up being a better version of mediocre where you win a few more meaningless games and compromise (1) as well.

[sikeston bulldog2]

The Cardinals ONLY path back to being a consistently successful organization is to get (back) to having a Top 5 farm system in terms of delivering young, cost controlled players to the ML team. They are, at least, working their way in that direction.

They have to get better about identifying, obtaining, and developing players for the ML team.

And obtaining such players mostly comes down to:

(1) drafting better (and drafting higher over the short term gives you an opportunity to draft better)
(2) better international scouting and signing, and
(3) trading away veteran players in seasons when you aren't ready to "win now" for prospects you want from other teams.

If you fail to do (3), you don't profit from it, and you may end up being a better version of mediocre where you win a few more meaningless games and compromise (1) as well.

I think your model is very good. I think it works best with a mediocre team or better. I think those teams are better equipped to handle the slower years when the farm doesn’t develop.

A team like us now, below the mediocre line, finds it hard to sustain years that the farm doesn’t give by volume or performance.

Think Walker Gorman.

[ScotchMIrish]

We averaged 5,917 more fans per game this season. After the 1985 debacle they didn't make the postseason for 29 years. Won a WS in 2015 and within 3 season lost 104 games. Took them 9 seasons after the WS to post a winning record.

We have to get rid of the mentality of 5 games over .500 at the all star break is an automatic sell off like we did this season.

I’m assuming you didn’t see many games. This team was poorly designed. Now that Johnnie Moe Moe is gohn time to retool and actually build a roster that makes sense.

I am hoping this is what happens

You are what your record says you are. We were 5 over .500 at the all star break. How many games over .500 before we make a run at the playoffs.

[ScotchMIrish]

“We have to get rid of the mentality of 5 games over .500 at the all star break is an automatic sell off like we did this season.”

That’s not a “mentality.” It’s something that just happened last year.

And it proved to be a (drat) good idea.

Perhaps since apparently no starting pitching was available but Ramon Laureano would have looked good in a Cardinals uniform if we could have acquired him without giving too much.

Oh god, you have no clue.

Not even a little? Going forward 5 over at the break is going to look pretty good unless Bloom rips off some teams in the offseason.

[CCard]

We averaged 5,917 more fans per game this season. After the 1985 debacle they didn't make the postseason for 29 years. Won a WS in 2015 and within 3 season lost 104 games. Took them 9 seasons after the WS to post a winning record.

We have to get rid of the mentality of 5 games over .500 at the all star break is an automatic sell off like we did this season.

That's the danger of tanking. A tremendous amount of losing for a chance to win after years in the hole.

True but the damage has been done not by tanking but by poor performance. I'll add the caveat that Bloom has not stated "tanking" to be the specific method going forward, to me it sounds like organizational improvement which can go a lot of ways. Of course, it'll take 1-2 years minimum to start seeing the franchise get back to where we expect it. And that's assuming it goes right. There's a lot of talent to develop in a short time if they expect to cover a 26-man roster for a 162 game season.

The underlying point to this is that in terms of market alone, there isn't much that seperates St. Louis from Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Detroit... Kansas City... etc. St Louis had a loyal fanbase and a recent dynasty (which can be attributed to leadership/management but also some luck) that helped them standout for some time. But, let's not act like those other central division franchises never had periods of success in their history either. The Cardinals seem to have gotten complacent and been passed up by some of those other clubs in certain cutting edge areas that Mo turned his nose up at during the final 10 years of his tenure.

What really kicked off the dynasty we saw in the 2000s was bringing in McGwire who was essentially the focal point of baseball at the time we acquired him. Think about what the equivalent of that is in today's game. They had the benefit of having McGwire's former manager here perhaps as a benefit to McGwire.

We will need to develop the organization to the point that we can again justify having a top level championship pedigree manager who can attract a top level star to St Louis, to coincide with the talent we've already developed. That was the recipe last time around, it's easier said than done.

When you go and arbitrarily cut payroll it is a form of tanking. Are you better for cutting payroll? No. For that reason I call it tanking. When you field a subpar team by cutting payroll. Will players pick it up? I hope they do. More importantly than trying to build a "Dynasty or Juggernaut" is getting to the dance every year. That keeps interest in the fan base and gives a team the opportunity to get hot and win.

[mattmitchl44]

I think your model is very good. I think it works best with a mediocre team or better. I think those teams are better equipped to handle the slower years when the farm doesn’t develop.

A team like us now, below the mediocre line, finds it hard to sustain years that the farm doesn’t give by volume or performance.

Think Walker Gorman.

The reality of the Cardinals organization's current problems basically come down to two things:

(1) they've had a generation of prospects (Walker, Gorman, Liberatore, Alex Reyes, etc.) not develop (or not develop yet) into the impact players they expected them to be, and they exacerbated those misses by having traded away prospects (Alcantara, Gallen, Arozarena, etc.) who became impact players for other teams

and

(2) they've made some signings/extensions (Fowler, multiple RPs, M. Carpenter, Mikolas, Molina, etc.) which have ultimately turned out to be not favorable for the team.

Making mistakes like the above is unavoidable. Every team will make such mistakes, but the Cardinals have seemed to make more than average for the last decade or so. Those mistakes might have been due to:

(1) bad talent evaluation (for both prospects and ML players),
(2) bad commitment to effective development practices (for prospects),
(3) bad injury luck (for both prospects and ML players)
etc.

IMO - a lot of the mistakes by the FO/ownership were driven by a desire to "keep the party going" any way they could after ~2014, being willing to trade assets like Gallen/Alcantara for short term fixes like Ozuna, making somewhat desperate signings/extensions for veteran players, etc. to try to band-aid the ML team so they could keep making the playoffs and hoping for a good result while skimping on prospect acquisition/retention/development.

[sikeston bulldog2]

I think your model is very good. I think it works best with a mediocre team or better. I think those teams are better equipped to handle the slower years when the farm doesn’t develop.

A team like us now, below the mediocre line, finds it hard to sustain years that the farm doesn’t give by volume or performance.

Think Walker Gorman.

The reality of the Cardinals organization's current problems basically come down to two things:

(1) they've had a generation of prospects (Walker, Gorman, Liberatore, Alex Reyes, etc.) not develop (or not develop yet) into the impact players they expected them to be, and they exacerbated those misses by having traded away prospects (Alcantara, Gallen, Arozarena, etc.) who became impact players for other teams

and

(2) they've made some signings/extensions (Fowler, multiple RPs, M. Carpenter, Mikolas, Molina, etc.) which have ultimately turned out to be not favorable for the team.

Making mistakes like the above is unavoidable. Every team will make such mistakes, but the Cardinals have seemed to make more than average for the last decade or so. Those mistakes might have been due to:

(1) bad talent evaluation (for both prospects and ML players),
(2) bad commitment to effective development practices (for prospects),
(3) bad injury luck (for both prospects and ML players)
etc.

IMO - a lot of the mistakes by the FO/ownership were driven by a desire to "keep the party going" any way they could after ~2014, being willing to trade assets like Gallen/Alcantara for short term fixes like Ozuna, making somewhat desperate signings/extensions for veteran players, etc. to try to band-aid the ML team so they could keep making the playoffs and hoping for a good result while skimping on prospect acquisition/retention/development.

Another fine write.

[Stlcardsblues]

We averaged 5,917 more fans per game this season. After the 1985 debacle they didn't make the postseason for 29 years. Won a WS in 2015 and within 3 season lost 104 games. Took them 9 seasons after the WS to post a winning record.

We have to get rid of the mentality of 5 games over .500 at the all star break is an automatic sell off like we did this season.

I’m glad they are getting rid of the finishing over .500 is a good season and want to build a team that can actually win something instead of being dumb holding onto players so they can be one and done in the post season

Great if it works but teams like the Pirates have been trying to do that for decades. There is a 2006 world series banner at Busch Stadium for a team that was 5 games over .500 for the season. They won the world series because you don't need more than 3 starting pitchers in the playoffs. First you make the playoffs. Then you win.

Royals went 29 years with no playoffs. 2 consecutive world series. Dump and rebuild another 9 years before they had a winning record.

The 2006 Cardinals run was not the norm. Besides this team lacked a Carpenter, Pujols, Molina, Rolen and Edmonds. Far too many teams lie to themselves and their fan base when stuck in the middle and turn it into years of mediocrity with no real hope of getting out of it. They can’t admit they are not a true playoff contender and need to build from within.

Sometimes teams need a reset to build things up. The 2025 Cardinals needed that. It would have been insane to not sell at the deadline hoping this team can make a magical run. They should have traded Romero as well.

Now it’s on DeWitt and Bloom to show they are building towards success and not becoming a terribly run team like Pittsburgh and Colorado.

What part of the 25 team left you feeling like they had any chance at post season success?

I know resets stink but all teams need them occasionally when they can’t spend 250 million on payroll.

[ecleme22]

I think your model is very good. I think it works best with a mediocre team or better. I think those teams are better equipped to handle the slower years when the farm doesn’t develop.

A team like us now, below the mediocre line, finds it hard to sustain years that the farm doesn’t give by volume or performance.

Think Walker Gorman.

The reality of the Cardinals organization's current problems basically come down to two things:

(1) they've had a generation of prospects (Walker, Gorman, Liberatore, Alex Reyes, etc.) not develop (or not develop yet) into the impact players they expected them to be, and they exacerbated those misses by having traded away prospects (Alcantara, Gallen, Arozarena, etc.) who became impact players for other teams

and

(2) they've made some signings/extensions (Fowler, multiple RPs, M. Carpenter, Mikolas, Molina, etc.) which have ultimately turned out to be not favorable for the team.

Making mistakes like the above is unavoidable. Every team will make such mistakes, but the Cardinals have seemed to make more than average for the last decade or so. Those mistakes might have been due to:

(1) bad talent evaluation (for both prospects and ML players),
(2) bad commitment to effective development practices (for prospects),
(3) bad injury luck (for both prospects and ML players)
etc.

IMO - a lot of the mistakes by the FO/ownership were driven by a desire to "keep the party going" any way they could after ~2014, being willing to trade assets like Gallen/Alcantara for short term fixes like Ozuna, making somewhat desperate signings/extensions for veteran players, etc. to try to band-aid the ML team so they could keep making the playoffs and hoping for a good result while skimping on prospect acquisition/retention/development.

Talent evaluation
Favoritism
Head scratchers

What are the head scratchers?
1. MO’s total averseness to signing 1-2 year contracts for starters or even bench pieces.
2. Signing Miko to an extension before the last year of his contract started. Sometimes I got the feeling Mo didn’t like dabbling in FA.
Others: Piscotty 7 year deal, Fowler 5 year deal, love for Hudson, DeJong 6 year deal, Wiggy 2 year deal, Arozarena trade, letting Carp hang around in 2021, trading Randy for a prospect that wouldn’t be ready anytime soon, love for Bourjos, love for Grichuk, no love for Pham, and being weirdly averse to roster depth…

[rockondlouie]

I'll take our new POBO, farm system and his team of smart hires over the Royals front office as well as our ownership over the Royals.