Who was the biggest bust

[C-Unit]

In terms of the modified question of highest ceiling . . .

Reyes and Martinez both had Cy Young winning, top 5 pitcher in baseball stuff.

Walker had the physical tools to be a GG RF with elite power hitter upside (still does). Aaron Judge lite.

Gorman's lack of elite defensive talents limited his ceiling a bit.

Carlson lacked the speed and elite power to have a ceiling as high as Walker or Gorman.

Carlson had good tools… ran well (though probably not fast enough for CF w/o Edmonds-like instincts) and had a plus arm. His prospect rankings were higher than Gorman & C-Mart… I’m inclined to call him the biggest bust, with the jury still out on Walker.

Reyes just had a ton of arm injuries… so I’m not really comfortable calling him a “bust”.

That's where I'm at on Carlson, also considering the time period. Imagine the 2021 lineup if you have Carlson as a guy with 40 doubles 20 HR 30 steals and a .360 obp, and he's batting 2nd ahead of Arenado/Goldschmidt.

[rbirules]

In terms of the modified question of highest ceiling . . .

Reyes and Martinez both had Cy Young winning, top 5 pitcher in baseball stuff.

Walker had the physical tools to be a GG RF with elite power hitter upside (still does). Aaron Judge lite.

Gorman's lack of elite defensive talents limited his ceiling a bit.

Carlson lacked the speed and elite power to have a ceiling as high as Walker or Gorman.

Carlson had good tools… ran well (though probably not fast enough for CF w/o Edmonds-like instincts) and had a plus arm. His prospect rankings were higher than Gorman & C-Mart… I’m inclined to call him the biggest bust, with the jury still out on Walker.

Reyes just had a ton of arm injuries… so I’m not really comfortable calling him a “bust”.

Isn't that how a lot of pitchers end up busting? They can't stay healthy enough to progress, or even play, enough to reach their potential.

[Dicktar2023]

[C-Unit]

This has distracted me from the topic at hand, now I've got something else in hand

[Quincy Varnish]

In terms of the modified question of highest ceiling . . .

Reyes and Martinez both had Cy Young winning, top 5 pitcher in baseball stuff.

Walker had the physical tools to be a GG RF with elite power hitter upside (still does). Aaron Judge lite.

Gorman's lack of elite defensive talents limited his ceiling a bit.

Carlson lacked the speed and elite power to have a ceiling as high as Walker or Gorman.

Carlson had good tools… ran well (though probably not fast enough for CF w/o Edmonds-like instincts) and had a plus arm. His prospect rankings were higher than Gorman & C-Mart… I’m inclined to call him the biggest bust, with the jury still out on Walker.

Reyes just had a ton of arm injuries… so I’m not really comfortable calling him a “bust”.

Isn't that how a lot of pitchers end up busting? They can't stay healthy enough to progress, or even play, enough to reach their potential.

Yes. I just consider calling someone a “bust” something of an indictment. Reyes had the ability, but his arm betrayed him. Did Carlson? All the prospect gurus thought he had the goods, so what went wrong with him?

[C-Unit]

In terms of the modified question of highest ceiling . . .

Reyes and Martinez both had Cy Young winning, top 5 pitcher in baseball stuff.

Walker had the physical tools to be a GG RF with elite power hitter upside (still does). Aaron Judge lite.

Gorman's lack of elite defensive talents limited his ceiling a bit.

Carlson lacked the speed and elite power to have a ceiling as high as Walker or Gorman.

Carlson had good tools… ran well (though probably not fast enough for CF w/o Edmonds-like instincts) and had a plus arm. His prospect rankings were higher than Gorman & C-Mart… I’m inclined to call him the biggest bust, with the jury still out on Walker.

Reyes just had a ton of arm injuries… so I’m not really comfortable calling him a “bust”.

Isn't that how a lot of pitchers end up busting? They can't stay healthy enough to progress, or even play, enough to reach their potential.

Yes. I just consider calling someone a “bust” something of an indictment. Reyes had the ability, but his arm betrayed him. Did Carlson? All the prospect gurus thought he had the goods, so what went wrong with him?

An indictment: that's how the Martinez haterz used his injuries against him.

[cardstatman]

For reference:

Worst 24 players of 2000-2025 era: (Pitchers RE24, Hitters Off + Def fRAA)

-50.1 Skip Schumaker
-43.1 Jordan Walker
-39.8 Andrew Knizner
-39.0 Aaron Miles
-36.9 Jake Westbrook
-35.0 Daniel Descalso
-35.0 Mike Matheny
-33.7 Skip Schumaker
-33.2 Alec Burleson
-33.1 Dexter Fowler
-32.2 Mark Mulder
-31.7 Kip Wells
-31.4 Juan Encarnacion
-25.5 Luke Weaver
-25.0 Brett Tomko
-24.5 Matthew LIberatore
-24.0 Anthony Reyes
-23.8 Randy Flores
-22.7 Dylan Carlson
-22.0 Mike Leake
-20.9 Jason Simontacchi
-19.7 Matt Adams
-19.4 Nolan Gorman
-18.8 Andre Pallante

[Dicktar2023]

For me it’s Jordan Walker. Tremendous potential.

You think a perennial 30 home run rightfielder would be more valuable than a switch-hitting 5 tool CF or a perennial ace (all-star game starter type) pitcher?

What was your rose colored glasses case for Walker? I want to see.

If we're talking about the difference between what we were told to expect and what we got, Reyes is #1 for sure, but he broke down physically.

The Walker hype in spring 2023 was that we should expect the next Pujols. Two year later, he's arguably the worst starting player in MLB. The Carlson hype wasn't nearly as aggressive, and he at least had one very good season.

[Carp4Cy]

I'm gonna make a list of players, who may or may not be considered "busts" based on how you define the word. I want you to compare each name to the wildest rose colored glasses view you ever had of said name. Which scenario would have made the biggest difference on the franchise over the last 10 years?

Carlos Martinez
Alex Reyes
Dylan Carlson
Nolan Gorman
Jordan Walker

For me it's a tie between either of the pitchers (Carlos Martinez becoming Pedro Jr or Alex Reyes throwing 200 innings and striking out 300), and Dylan Carlson if he had become more like the last switch-hitting rightfielder that wore #3 (the potential for a 20/30 high on-base switch-hitting centerfielder would have pretty impactful... especially in those lineups that had Goldschmidt and N. Arenado performing still at their best).

Feel free to throw out another name but I'm not talking about the Aledmys Diaz's of the world this is about former high-ranked prospects that were seen as future organization mainstays. We all know about the Taveras one, let's start after that.

Carlos, seriously? He won 62 games for us. We sign him again 10 times out of 10. That’s the opposite of a bust.

Carlos and Lynn were the 2 most successful Cardinal drafted / signed pitchers for our org this entire Century.

[Jobu's Rum]

Carlos Martinez
Alex Reyes
Dylan Carlson
Nolan Gorman
Jordan Walker


No to CMart and Reyes, they at least made all star teams at some point, I have soured big time on Walker. Dude just looks lost, he DID have a good rookie year and is still only 23, cant call him a bust just yet but he is getting there.

From this list I say Carlson, just fell apart after one good year. He is a 'minor league deal' type now

[Jobu's Rum]

I'm gonna make a list of players, who may or may not be considered "busts" based on how you define the word. I want you to compare each name to the wildest rose colored glasses view you ever had of said name. Which scenario would have made the biggest difference on the franchise over the last 10 years?

Carlos Martinez
Alex Reyes
Dylan Carlson
Nolan Gorman
Jordan Walker

For me it's a tie between either of the pitchers (Carlos Martinez becoming Pedro Jr or Alex Reyes throwing 200 innings and striking out 300), and Dylan Carlson if he had become more like the last switch-hitting rightfielder that wore #3 (the potential for a 20/30 high on-base switch-hitting centerfielder would have pretty impactful... especially in those lineups that had Goldschmidt and N. Arenado performing still at their best).

Feel free to throw out another name but I'm not talking about the Aledmys Diaz's of the world this is about former high-ranked prospects that were seen as future organization mainstays. We all know about the Taveras one, let's start after that.

Carlos, seriously? He won 62 games for us. We sign him again 10 times out of 10. That’s the opposite of a bust.

Carlos and Lynn were the 2 most successful Cardinal drafted / signed pitchers for our org this entire Century.

Carlos looks like Pedro Martinez compared to this current lot

[Melville]

I'm gonna make a list of players, who may or may not be considered "busts" based on how you define the word. I want you to compare each name to the wildest rose colored glasses view you ever had of said name. Which scenario would have made the biggest difference on the franchise over the last 10 years?

Carlos Martinez
Alex Reyes
Dylan Carlson
Nolan Gorman
Jordan Walker

For me it's a tie between either of the pitchers (Carlos Martinez becoming Pedro Jr or Alex Reyes throwing 200 innings and striking out 300), and Dylan Carlson if he had become more like the last switch-hitting rightfielder that wore #3 (the potential for a 20/30 high on-base switch-hitting centerfielder would have pretty impactful... especially in those lineups that had Goldschmidt and N. Arenado performing still at their best).

Feel free to throw out another name but I'm not talking about the Aledmys Diaz's of the world this is about former high-ranked prospects that were seen as future organization mainstays. We all know about the Taveras one, let's start after that.

Carlson 26, Gorman 25, Walker 23.
None of them are busts.
Too much of the story is yet to be determined.
And all 3 have had at least one very good MLB season.
The Martinez story is over - washed out by age 29.
But not really a bust.
4 respectable years as a starter and pitched nearly 1000 MLB innings.
Reyes is the only bust on the list.
5 year MLB career and averaged less than 30 innings a season.
But there was a far bigger bust than him.
Oscar Taveras was hyped as having a higher ceiling than anyone listed above.
Hit .239 with an OBP of .278 in his one MLB career.
Then killed himself and girlfriend by driving his car into a tree while drunk- and leaving their son an orphan.
A player doesn't "bust" any worse than that.

[kyace]

Walker has been a disappointment. However at age 23 Aaron Judge between AA and AAA was hitting .244 with 20 homers while striking out 27% of the time. Two years later he hit 52 homers for the Yankees. I bet the Yankees are glad they didn’t consider him a bust and trade him away at age 23.
I don’t think Walker becomes Judge but he has the same tools that Judge had at that age. Yankees were able to develop Judge into the player he is today. Walker hasn’t had an opportunity to develop in the minors as he was rushed to the majors and forced to learn a new position on the fly.
His failure is maybe MO’s biggest failure.

[imetsatchelpaige]

Rasmus has to be on the list. He was supposed to make us forget Jim Edmonds.

No kidding-I spaced the guy I used to unmercifully hammer here. Hindered by an IQ in the 80 range, I always pictured him living in a Winnebago in Bumfuk Georgia.

[JuanAgosto]

Of the OP's list, I say Walker so far. Martinez had some very good years. Reyes just couldn't stay healthy. Carlson had one pretty good year. Gorman has at least hit some homers. Walker looks like a guy playing a game that he's never seen before. I know he's young, but there has been regression instead of improvement.

[Quincy Varnish]

Rasmus has to be on the list. He was supposed to make us forget Jim Edmonds.

No kidding-I spaced the guy I used to unmercifully hammer here. Hindered by an IQ in the 80 range, I always pictured him living in a Winnebago in Bumfuk Georgia.

I saw him more as a talented athlete whose love for the game was stomped out by an overbearing father before he even made the big leagues.