OT: Aroldis Chapman

[renostl]

Not a 1st ballot for sure.

There are only nine closers in: Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, Dennis Eckersley, Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage, Trevor Hoffman, Lee Smith, Mariano Rivera, and Billy Wagner

Chapman is borderline but he's got a shot down the line to get in.

Chapman has 359 saves. More saves than HOFers Wilhelm 228, Sutter 300, Gossage 310, and Fingers 341. He only needs 21 more to catch Eckersley.

Some on that list consistently managed 3 inning saves. The save has morphed into a 1 inning thing lately. The criteria for selection into the Hall may morph as well. I do think that Chapman will earn the HOF, but, like rock, not sure how long it might take on the ballot.

None of those guys consistently managed three-inning saves, not even Wilhelm. They might have had the occasional two-inning save, but three innings was quite rare.

When Sutter became a sensational closer beginning in 1977, he proved the folly of loading up closers with innings pitched. In the first half of the season, he was unhittable. But in the second half, he had to be limited by either arm strain or he got clobbered. It took a couple of year for Herman Franks to temper his use of Sutter and only bring him in when the team was in the lead in the eighth or nineth -- usually the nineth. That use earned Sutter his Cy Young Award in 1979.

Teams pretty much copied that practice ever since and even further narrowed the use of a closer. That's why saves exploded. It was not so much the talent as it was the managers' use of the closer to optimize save totals.

In 1972, when Wilhelm retired he was the career leader in saves with 228 and by quite margin -- 94 saves ahead of Elroy Face. I suppose people might have called him the greatest reliever in the 101 years of baseball at that time. Since then, 44 players have blown past him and it wasn't because they were better relievers. They were just used in a manner that optimized the accumulation of saves.

Saves remains among the more dubious "stellar" achievements in baseball and should be treated as such when considering HOF selections.

Baseball does that with accumulations Stats though.
A RP might have a season or a few where they get opportunity to do that.

When they get to these higher numbers though, It says a bit more. That they were
the top RP on the teams they played for, which can take a while to establish, and converted for a long time, longer than
most play.

[Swuhgen]

He's a hall of fame lock.
Thinking otherwise is moronic.

[renostl]

He's a hall of fame lock.
Thinking otherwise is moronic.

Probably.
He has to get the SV >400 IMO, and he has to keep
the CL to do that. 2020 hurt that, as did 2023 and 2024.
but probable.

Nathan, Rodriguez, Franco, might suggest it's not a
lock quite yet.

[ClassicO]

Not a 1st ballot for sure.

There are only nine closers in: Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, Dennis Eckersley, Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage, Trevor Hoffman, Lee Smith, Mariano Rivera, and Billy Wagner

Chapman is borderline but he's got a shot down the line to get in.

Chapman has 359 saves. More saves than HOFers Wilhelm 228, Sutter 300, Gossage 310, and Fingers 341. He only needs 21 more to catch Eckersley.

Definite HOF. He's getting better!!
He made some off-season adjustments - including a mental one to help him better visualize his pitches that has led to a career best 0.636 WHIP (career 1.074) to go with an insane ERA now at 0.98 (career 2.52.
He is currently on 17 appearances without giving up a hit (3rd best all-time).
That's 50 straight at-bats over 14 2/3 consecutive innings. He struck out four batters in an inning on Sunday after a catchable WP. I think he's got a lot left as he's had eight of the nine fastest pitches in baseball history, including 105.1 mph last season. He's averaging over 98 on FB and 99 on sinker - and throws a 87 mph slider. Crazy.