This is how you blow up salary structure in a cap league

[Cahokanut]

This is how winners are built.
Bridge deals are usually costly to a team and are made after bad contracts are given out to 50pt old guys.
You don't trade off your future stars for hope and you don't allow management to build a friends list over a cup contender.

[theograce]

If they didn't see the value he wouldn't still be here, if anything they overvalue him.

They’ve been trying to move on for a while. I mean Berube said things you never hear, and rookies are getting more ice in many important games.

Just because they can’t get what they want doesn’t mean they think they’d do that contract again.

It means exactly that, if they just wanted out of the contract they would be.

Sounds easy at this stage.

[TheJackBurton]

A little risky given what he’s shown to date but I’m a big believer in his abilities. Hockey sense and speed for days. I’ll also note that since he’s so young, if it does end up going south, he can be bought out for 1/3 the cost as opposed to the normal 2/3.

IMO, the Hawks just locked in their longterm 2C to a cheapish Cap hit (given where the Cap is going) until age 29. There’s certainly some risk involved here but my guess is this ends up working out super well for the Hawks (which as a Blues fan, sucks).

Even if it does work out well for them, it has now reset the structure for second year contracts.

His numbers didn't support that contract.

You can talk escalating salary cap all you want, but to go from ELC to 6.7 AAV after only 56 games and 26 points, oofff that is going to kill a lot of teams who are going to have to overpay for very marginal talent.

And the Hawks should care about this why? They’re taking a long term gamble here. They could wait and then try to sign him to a bridge but then maybe his next contract costs $9M AAV instead of $6.7M. It’s a risk for sure but I see the logic.

Where did I say Chicago should care? I'm talking about the league as a whole. Now an average forward will see a 30-50% bump in pay over what they would previously have gotten.

Again, 26 points in 56 games. That upsets the contract structure of the entire league.

Were you this upset when the Blues doubled what Holloway and Broberg earned?

You should be happy that the Hawks just overpaid for somebody that doesn't deserve it right...?

Apples to concrete.

[TheJackBurton]

A little risky given what he’s shown to date but I’m a big believer in his abilities. Hockey sense and speed for days. I’ll also note that since he’s so young, if it does end up going south, he can be bought out for 1/3 the cost as opposed to the normal 2/3.

IMO, the Hawks just locked in their longterm 2C to a cheapish Cap hit (given where the Cap is going) until age 29. There’s certainly some risk involved here but my guess is this ends up working out super well for the Hawks (which as a Blues fan, sucks).

Even if it does work out well for them, it has now reset the structure for second year contracts.

His numbers didn't support that contract.

You can talk escalating salary cap all you want, but to go from ELC to 6.7 AAV after only 56 games and 26 points, oofff that is going to kill a lot of teams who are going to have to overpay for very marginal talent.

And the Hawks should care about this why? They’re taking a long term gamble here. They could wait and then try to sign him to a bridge but then maybe his next contract costs $9M AAV instead of $6.7M. It’s a risk for sure but I see the logic.

Where did I say Chicago should care? I'm talking about the league as a whole. Now an average forward will see a 30-50% bump in pay over what they would previously have gotten.

Again, 26 points in 56 games. That upsets the contract structure of the entire league.

Why would other teams have to follow suit? The bridge deal will remain a viable option.

But let’s take Snuggerud as an example. A year from now, he’ll be in the same position as Nazar - one year remaining on his ELC. What we don’t know yet is how Snuggy will do this season but let’s guess and say he scores around a 40 pt pace - same as Nazar but he’s absolutely on fire the 2nd half of the year and it looks likely he’s about to break out big time. Let’s say your options are a 2 year bridge at $4M/year or 7 years at 6.75M. Which do you pick? The longer one is riskier but has A TON more potential value as well. If you choose the bridge, the Cap will be even higher in 2 years when that bridge expires. What if Snuggy breaks out in those 2 years? Then you’re looking at a $9M/year deal for 7 years, possibly even more. So yeah, the bridge would save you some money in the short term but the longer term deal could really save you a lot of money over the longterm. And the Hawks have cap space to burn here in the short term…but in a few years when Bedard also needs a new deal and they’re adding free agents, Nazar could be an absolute bargain.

And if he’s not? Again, not super costly to buy out since he’d only cost 1/3 to buy out. That really mitigates the risk.

This will now raise the 2nd deals up an additional 20-30%. Why wouldn't it? What agent isn't going to point to this contract and his numbers and say if he is getting this why isn't my guy who put up better numbers not getting at least that?

It'll hurt teams in arbitration as well.

[TheJackBurton]

gotta love how people continue to get baited into conversations with him lol.

6.6m is essentially expecting a 45-50 point guy who can PK on the 3rd line, or a 55-60 on the 2nd line. I think his rate last season as a rookie was showing roughly 40 point production, so they're banking on him essentially being able to add 5-15 points when he gets better linemates at his 13-17 minute ice time slot.

I've seen way worse deals out there than this one.

It's not the price or the length, it's the timing. He has proven nothing in this league at this point.

This now sets a bar that will escalate contracts way faster than they should have.

[TheJackBurton]

This is going to be a steal for the Hawks. I’d much rather commit max term to a 21 year old than a 28 year old. And there’s almost zero chance that he doesn’t over perform his cap hit with the way the cap is going up.

How much more was he going to make if they signed to him a 2 year bridge deal for say 3 million and then had back to back 40 point season?

Probably the exact same amount he is making right now.

[STL fan in MN]

A little risky given what he’s shown to date but I’m a big believer in his abilities. Hockey sense and speed for days. I’ll also note that since he’s so young, if it does end up going south, he can be bought out for 1/3 the cost as opposed to the normal 2/3.

IMO, the Hawks just locked in their longterm 2C to a cheapish Cap hit (given where the Cap is going) until age 29. There’s certainly some risk involved here but my guess is this ends up working out super well for the Hawks (which as a Blues fan, sucks).

Even if it does work out well for them, it has now reset the structure for second year contracts.

His numbers didn't support that contract.

You can talk escalating salary cap all you want, but to go from ELC to 6.7 AAV after only 56 games and 26 points, oofff that is going to kill a lot of teams who are going to have to overpay for very marginal talent.

And the Hawks should care about this why? They’re taking a long term gamble here. They could wait and then try to sign him to a bridge but then maybe his next contract costs $9M AAV instead of $6.7M. It’s a risk for sure but I see the logic.

Where did I say Chicago should care? I'm talking about the league as a whole. Now an average forward will see a 30-50% bump in pay over what they would previously have gotten.

Again, 26 points in 56 games. That upsets the contract structure of the entire league.

Why would other teams have to follow suit? The bridge deal will remain a viable option.

But let’s take Snuggerud as an example. A year from now, he’ll be in the same position as Nazar - one year remaining on his ELC. What we don’t know yet is how Snuggy will do this season but let’s guess and say he scores around a 40 pt pace - same as Nazar but he’s absolutely on fire the 2nd half of the year and it looks likely he’s about to break out big time. Let’s say your options are a 2 year bridge at $4M/year or 7 years at 6.75M. Which do you pick? The longer one is riskier but has A TON more potential value as well. If you choose the bridge, the Cap will be even higher in 2 years when that bridge expires. What if Snuggy breaks out in those 2 years? Then you’re looking at a $9M/year deal for 7 years, possibly even more. So yeah, the bridge would save you some money in the short term but the longer term deal could really save you a lot of money over the longterm. And the Hawks have cap space to burn here in the short term…but in a few years when Bedard also needs a new deal and they’re adding free agents, Nazar could be an absolute bargain.

And if he’s not? Again, not super costly to buy out since he’d only cost 1/3 to buy out. That really mitigates the risk.

This will now raise the 2nd deals up an additional 20-30%. Why wouldn't it? What agent isn't going to point to this contract and his numbers and say if he is getting this why isn't my guy who put up better numbers not getting at least that?

It'll hurt teams in arbitration as well.

Arbitration awards are 1-2 years. This 7 year deal would instantly be considered not relevant.

And players and their agents can ask for whatever they want, doesn’t mean other teams have to follow suit. Other than offer sheets, which are super rare, RFAs really don’t have a ton of leverage. Teams will continue to sign the players they deem core guys longterm and then play hardball and more likely do bridges with guys they consider more tertiary

[BalotelliMassive]

gotta love how people continue to get baited into conversations with him lol.

6.6m is essentially expecting a 45-50 point guy who can PK on the 3rd line, or a 55-60 on the 2nd line. I think his rate last season as a rookie was showing roughly 40 point production, so they're banking on him essentially being able to add 5-15 points when he gets better linemates at his 13-17 minute ice time slot.

I've seen way worse deals out there than this one.

It's not the price or the length, it's the timing. He has proven nothing in this league at this point.

This now sets a bar that will escalate contracts way faster than they should have.

What do you want people to say at this point? Chicago is taking a gamble that may or may not work out. The guy has an invite to the US olympic team....go tell them that he didn't earn it and get laughed at.

[skilles]

The players are going to get exactly 50% of NHL revenue, that is what determines player value. There is no such thing as "blowing up the salary structure" the salary structure is determined by league wide revenue. There will be some market correction as the number remains fluid but that's about it.

[Old_Goat]

Let's hope the Blues are not envious of not having a #2 Center similar to what the Hawks have in 2-3 years.

[Lets_Clinch]

Let's hope the Blues are not envious of not having a #2 Center similar to what the Hawks have in 2-3 years.

Yeah, IMHO, this is really all that matters. I hope we have a 2C that produces like this guy likely will with those wheels. I don't care if the Blues' player is as fast as long as the production is there. This was a smart move by the Hawks in my opinion. I would imagine they have learned from their lessons of being in Cap Hell.

[moose-and-squirrel]

guess those contracts to Thomas and Kyrou don't look so bad afterall.. I thought they'd look good eventually, but not this fast

makes ya wonder what Broberg and Holloway get signed for

[BalotelliMassive]

guess those contracts to Thomas and Kyrou don't look so bad afterall.. I thought they'd look good eventually, but not this fast

He still has a year left on his entry level contract....let's see how he produces while earning 900k. That's the bet the Hawks made (that he's going to have a monster year).