Ozziesfan41 wrote: ↑05 Aug 2025 13:24 pm
Hes a hall of fame player for sure but man i wish Mo hadnt flown down there and filled his head with dreams of putting forth the best effort to contend and talked him out of Opting out he should have told him the truth that he was going to do his usual half [ashed] mo effort to contend and let him opt out
But if he didn’t play in Colorado, his numbers would be like Longoria and Frymam, with less counting stats
That’s fair but I don’t pay much attention to if you can do that all day long. If baroid bonds never used steroids hank Aaron would be the all time home run leader still and judge would be the single season home run king if McGwire also hadn’t used steroids if big papi hadn’t used steroids he might never have been in the hall of the fame if ankiel hadn’t melted down he might have been a hall of fame pitcher ifs don’t mean much but I guess it’s interesting to talk about
Not very good analogies.
Yea they are you can if anything and it doesn’t change reality and baroid wouldn’t have his numbers without steroids
Well when it comes to Bonds, there have been countless conversations on 1) the numbers he would have had if he never did drugs and 2) the idea that he still would've been a HOFer even before the roid spike.
Obviously Nolan is going to get to 2000 hits, maybe 400 HRs. Those 'threshold' numbers that permit an easier HOF path.
But IMO, Nolan isn't close to those counting stats if he never played in Colo. Which, you could argue, would make him not the 'lock' for the HOF that is commonly assumed.
Ozziesfan41 wrote: ↑05 Aug 2025 13:24 pm
Hes a hall of fame player for sure but man i wish Mo hadnt flown down there and filled his head with dreams of putting forth the best effort to contend and talked him out of Opting out he should have told him the truth that he was going to do his usual half [ashed] mo effort to contend and let him opt out
But if he didn’t play in Colorado, his numbers would be like Longoria and Frymam, with less counting stats
That’s fair but I don’t pay much attention to if you can do that all day long. If baroid bonds never used steroids hank Aaron would be the all time home run leader still and judge would be the single season home run king if McGwire also hadn’t used steroids if big papi hadn’t used steroids he might never have been in the hall of the fame if ankiel hadn’t melted down he might have been a hall of fame pitcher ifs don’t mean much but I guess it’s interesting to talk about
Not very good analogies.
Yea they are you can if anything and it doesn’t change reality and baroid wouldn’t have his numbers without steroids
Well when it comes to Bonds, there have been countless conversations on 1) the numbers he would have had if he never did drugs and 2) the idea that he still would've been a HOFer even before the roid spike.
Obviously Nolan is going to get to 2000 hits, maybe 400 HRs. Those 'threshold' numbers that permit an easier HOF path.
But IMO, Nolan isn't close to those counting stats if he never played in Colo. Which, you could argue, would make him not the 'lock' for the HOF that is commonly assumed.
Nobody knows how long broid actually used steroids but him so all of his numbers are meaningless to me which again doesn’t mean anything. But Nolan I know you like war he had the best war of his career at 7.9 in St. Louis and got MVP votes as a cardinal and that was age 31 he hit 34 home runs as a 30 year old in St. Louis it’s not outrageous to believe in his prime he could have hit close to 40 home runs or even 40 home runs. as a 31 year old he had 42 doubles which was just one short of his career high in Colorado. So yea I think he could have still put up hall of fame numbers especially if he was with a team that had a good line up for him to drive in runs and drive him in. Add in that with gold gloves I think he still gets in. You disagree that’s fine I disagree with your disagreement
Ozziesfan41 wrote: ↑05 Aug 2025 13:24 pm
Hes a hall of fame player for sure but man i wish Mo hadnt flown down there and filled his head with dreams of putting forth the best effort to contend and talked him out of Opting out he should have told him the truth that he was going to do his usual half [ashed] mo effort to contend and let him opt out
But if he didn’t play in Colorado, his numbers would be like Longoria and Frymam, with less counting stats
That’s fair but I don’t pay much attention to if you can do that all day long. If baroid bonds never used steroids hank Aaron would be the all time home run leader still and judge would be the single season home run king if McGwire also hadn’t used steroids if big papi hadn’t used steroids he might never have been in the hall of the fame if ankiel hadn’t melted down he might have been a hall of fame pitcher ifs don’t mean much but I guess it’s interesting to talk about
Not very good analogies.
Yea they are you can if anything and it doesn’t change reality and baroid wouldn’t have his numbers without steroids
Well when it comes to Bonds, there have been countless conversations on 1) the numbers he would have had if he never did drugs and 2) the idea that he still would've been a HOFer even before the roid spike.
Obviously Nolan is going to get to 2000 hits, maybe 400 HRs. Those 'threshold' numbers that permit an easier HOF path.
But IMO, Nolan isn't close to those counting stats if he never played in Colo. Which, you could argue, would make him not the 'lock' for the HOF that is commonly assumed.
Nobody knows how long broid actually used steroids but him so all of his numbers are meaningless to me which again doesn’t mean anything. But Nolan I know you like war he had the best war of his career at 7.9 in St. Louis and got MVP votes as a cardinal and that was age 31 he hit 34 home runs as a 30 year old in St. Louis it’s not outrageous to believe in his prime he could have hit close to 40 home runs or even 40 home runs. as a 31 year old he had 42 doubles which was just one short of his career high in Colorado. So yea I think he could have still put up hall of fame numbers especially if he was with a team that had a good line up for him to drive in runs and drive him in. Add in that with gold gloves I think he still gets in. You disagree that’s fine I disagree with your disagreement
His best OPS in STL would’ve been his 6th best in Colo.
His 2nd best ops in STL was, at the time, his worst non-covid year ops of his career.
He was 30-31 years old. Prime.
I think it fair to say Nolan outside of Colo would’ve looked like a combo of his 2021-2022 years. Good!, but not the gaudy stats he put up.
moose-and-squirrel wrote: ↑05 Aug 2025 08:43 am
what were his stats away from COL during that time?
.985 OPS at home
.793 OPS away
those stats very similar to Ron Santo's home/away splits, and he got in the HOF, even though he was not even close to Arenado's defensive prowess.
.905 OPS at home
.747 OPS away
So would Santo have gotten in had he not played almost all of his career at Wrigley?
Nolan's home stats were 80 points more and away stats 46 points more. I wouldn't say 'similar'. Also, during Nolan's 5 year peak, his splits were 1.037 and .838.
I feel like every few years or so, I have to remind people that Coors Field is DIFFERENT.
Also, Santo had a 70.6 WAR, 2,250 hits had to wait 32 YEARS to get in.
I'm just saying that Nolan Arenado at 34 years old today, if he never played for the Rox, would have about 1740 hits and 278 HRs, and would probably not have the HOF talk he has now.
While his counting stats would be down some, i think its fairnto suggest maybe his prime would have still been better at the age whem he played in colorado. Also "if he didnt play in colorado" is too big a generalization. Coors geta the most scrutiny, but arizona and boston while ranking below coors are always near the top of park factors. What if he played there instead would.be a different what if than ifnhe played his whole career in st. Louis which is always about avg to pitcher friendly in the yearly rankings.
Also worth noting that colorados divisions opponents who they play most games against- besides the hitter friendly arizona- are san diego dodgers and giants which are all pitcher friendly parks where he had to play the most road games.
There are several different ball parks that have a niche homerun exploit like a shallow but tall wall on one aide of the field- so i feel its important to say that "not in colorado" could be a very arbitrary range as if he was in arozona or boston, the dropoff really might not be that great but get a tpn of less scrutiny than Coors
moose-and-squirrel wrote: ↑05 Aug 2025 08:43 am
what were his stats away from COL during that time?
.985 OPS at home
.793 OPS away
those stats very similar to Ron Santo's home/away splits, and he got in the HOF, even though he was not even close to Arenado's defensive prowess.
.905 OPS at home
.747 OPS away
So would Santo have gotten in had he not played almost all of his career at Wrigley?
Nolan's home stats were 80 points more and away stats 46 points more. I wouldn't say 'similar'. Also, during Nolan's 5 year peak, his splits were 1.037 and .838.
I feel like every few years or so, I have to remind people that Coors Field is DIFFERENT.
Also, Santo had a 70.6 WAR, 2,250 hits had to wait 32 YEARS to get in.
I'm just saying that Nolan Arenado at 34 years old today, if he never played for the Rox, would have about 1740 hits and 278 HRs, and would probably not have the HOF talk he has now.
While his counting stats would be down some, i think its fairnto suggest maybe his prime would have still been better at the age whem he played in colorado. Also "if he didnt play in colorado" is too big a generalization. Coors geta the most scrutiny, but arizona and boston while ranking below coors are always near the top of park factors. What if he played there instead would.be a different what if than ifnhe played his whole career in st. Louis which is always about avg to pitcher friendly in the yearly rankings.
Also worth noting that colorados divisions opponents who they play most games against- besides the hitter friendly arizona- are san diego dodgers and giants which are all pitcher friendly parks where he had to play the most road games.
There are several different ball parks that have a niche homerun exploit like a shallow but tall wall on one aide of the field- so i feel its important to say that "not in colorado" could be a very arbitrary range as if he was in arozona or boston, the dropoff really might not be that great but get a tpn of less scrutiny than Coors
Stats don’t lie.
Now do I think he still would’ve been really good? Yes. Like Troy glaus w a little less power.
And if that happened, he would still be celebrated now. But his counting stats would be lacking for HOF trajectory.
In Colorado, he had:
-5 SEASONS in row of 37-42 HRs, leading the league three times.
-5 SEASONS of .898 OPS - .962 OPS
That's like having 5 seasons in a row BETTER than his 2022 season...
So what are those numbers if he played outside of Colorado?
Does he even have 300 HRs. Would he even be in line for his 2000th hit? Would his career OPS+ be under 110?
I'm guessing he would be similar to Longoria, Fryman and a little Brooks Robinson, hitting wise.
And with that, he would fall short of the Hall of Fame.
Probably not.
I'll bet Aramis Ramirez would be in the HOF if he played his entire career in Coors
Gasp, this is the dumbest comment of day. Aramis could hit but sucked defensively and played in a hitter friendly park in Chicago. Want to do some splits - look at PCA's numbers outside of Chicago this year. Heck look at every lefty HOF outside of Yankees Stadium. Nolan is probably top 5 to ever play 3rd base defensively (maybe top 3 if you factor in Brooks Robinson/Scott Rolen). Outside of that, can't find that. Nolan while has much larger splits in Coors to others, he still produced power in other parks and while the rbis would not be the same, he would still average many 30 homers/100 rbi seasons. Even in St. Lou, he had a top 3 mvp voting season and had a 30 homer season - both those seasons, he topped 100 rbi's. The dude while is not clutch offensively could play d and produce middle of order at bats. To me, with having 10 gold gloves and having 3 all star seasons in St. Louis as he is obviously tailing down, prove that he can play outside of Coors.
Gasp. He's sixth all time in RBIs among third basemen. It's certainly not stretch at all for him to rank third all time if he played his entire career in Coors. He could also vault from seventh to fifth in homers and vault from eighth to fifth I doubles. Gasp. Richie Allen could hit, but sucked defensively. Gasp. Guess where he's enshrine.
In Colorado, he had:
-5 SEASONS in row of 37-42 HRs, leading the league three times.
-5 SEASONS of .898 OPS - .962 OPS
That's like having 5 seasons in a row BETTER than his 2022 season...
So what are those numbers if he played outside of Colorado?
Does he even have 300 HRs. Would he even be in line for his 2000th hit? Would his career OPS+ be under 110?
I'm guessing he would be similar to Longoria, Fryman and a little Brooks Robinson, hitting wise.
And with that, he would fall short of the Hall of Fame.
Probably not.
I'll bet Aramis Ramirez would be in the HOF if he played his entire career in Coors
Gasp, this is the dumbest comment of day. Aramis could hit but sucked defensively and played in a hitter friendly park in Chicago. Want to do some splits - look at PCA's numbers outside of Chicago this year. Heck look at every lefty HOF outside of Yankees Stadium. Nolan is probably top 5 to ever play 3rd base defensively (maybe top 3 if you factor in Brooks Robinson/Scott Rolen). Outside of that, can't find that. Nolan while has much larger splits in Coors to others, he still produced power in other parks and while the rbis would not be the same, he would still average many 30 homers/100 rbi seasons. Even in St. Lou, he had a top 3 mvp voting season and had a 30 homer season - both those seasons, he topped 100 rbi's. The dude while is not clutch offensively could play d and produce middle of order at bats. To me, with having 10 gold gloves and having 3 all star seasons in St. Louis as he is obviously tailing down, prove that he can play outside of Coors.
Gasp. He's sixth all time in RBIs among third basemen. It's certainly not stretch at all for him to rank third all time if he played his entire career in Coors. He could also vault from seventh to fifth in homers and vault from eighth to fifth I doubles. Gasp. Richie Allen could hit, but sucked defensively. Gasp. Guess where he's enshrine.
Fun fact: Arenado is 34.
When Ramirez was 34, he was in his first season in Milwaukee. His stats:
5.6 WAR
50 doubles
27 HRS
105 RBIs
.300 BA
.901 OPS
OldRed wrote: ↑05 Aug 2025 08:42 am
If Arenado gets in the HOF why hasn't Edmands? Or Kenny Boyer for that matter.
Edmonds was on a crowded ballot. This has been discussed many times. Victim of circumstance. He’d likely be headed towards enshrinement if he was on the ballot now.
I'll stand by this:
Edmonds sitting out the 2009 season doomed him. Even if he had a bad season, he'd still be at 2000 hits and 400 HR.
moose-and-squirrel wrote: ↑05 Aug 2025 08:43 am
what were his stats away from COL during that time?
.985 OPS at home
.793 OPS away
While he benefitted from Coors, I also think Arenado should be considered that he is one of the best defensive 3rd basemen ever while being a very good offensive player wherever he played. Nolan put up 2 really great years in St. Louis too with 30 and 34 homers with the latter being one of finishing 3rd in MVP voting.
JMO.
Eh, he put up one great year. And that great year was worse than his all 5 of his big Colo years.
2022 was better than any year he had in Colorado. He had a 151 OPS+, whereas his high for Colorado was 133.
You are right.
And I'm sure you agree, that's speaks to Arenado's big counting numbers in Colorado.
