Temper Your Trade Expectations

[ramfandan]

ramfandan » 30 Jul 2025 17:43 pm

Rather than one high prospect , I am expecting 2 or 3 players (leaning more to a 3 for 1 return ). Top player of a multi- player trade may be a 10th best prospect ? another in teens ? just speculating


Posted this earlier today well before the trade ..
Pretty much in line with my expectations.. I said a 3 for 1 I was hoping for. With top player in a team's top10 range ( MLB Pipeline has Baez at No. 8 .. someone else said he was a No. 6 ranking ) I said 'another in teens ? and Dohme was 14th ranked by Mets so right in line there too

[JuanAgosto]

Im tempering my expectations solely because of this guy.

images (48).jpeg

Fusilli Mo all up your bum
So weird

You hanging from Mo's sack is weirder.

Mo is okay. He hired Bloom that everyone hangs their hopes on.
However, you have a weird obsession. Fusilli Mo.

No, Mo sucks. Being truthful isn't the same as having an obsession.

[brock118]

ramfandan » 30 Jul 2025 17:43 pm

Rather than one high prospect , I am expecting 2 or 3 players (leaning more to a 3 for 1 return ). Top player of a multi- player trade may be a 10th best prospect ? another in teens ? just speculating


Posted this earlier today well before the trade ..
Pretty much in line with my expectations.. I said a 3 for 1 I was hoping for. With top player in a team's top10 range ( MLB Pipeline has Baez at No. 8 .. someone else said he was a No. 6 ranking ) I said 'another in teens ? and Dohme was 14th ranked by Mets so right in line there too

Yep Ram I was with you...Fangraphs had really low grades on Dohm #42 &U Ellisalt #43

[Braund241]

Check out this Baseball America on Top 100 prospects traded by the deadline since 2014. There has been an average of 3 per year, but in recent years the numbers have been dwindling. Last year there were 0 traded. And most of the time those prospects traded come from the bottom half of that list.

Over that time only 2 prospects in the top 10, in 2016 and 2014 were traded. And in the same time only 2 more prospects in the top 20, in 2022 and 2021, were traded.

The article doesn't really get into who was traded for those prospects, and I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'm guessing that they were typically bigger and better players than Ryan Helsley, Steven Matz, JoJo Romero, Brendan Donovan, Phil Maton, and old, expensive, and declining Arenado, and anyone else I may be missing from this year's class of possible trade offs.

What I'm getting at is don't expect some huge return. Same as when they traded Montgomery, Flaherty, etc in 2023. You'll just be disappointed. Derrick Goold has said more than once that the Cardinals may hold onto Helsley if they feel like the return they're being offered for him isn't what they might receive if they give him a qualifying offer and they get a comp pick.

Basically, you're not getting some "sure thing" prospect. Maybe if they are smart and can get a huge haul for Donovan. Or maybe a team gets desperate and does something dumb. The odds are just against it. But there's always hope that our scouting guys can identify players that may not be big name guys, but can be quality players for us in the future.

Just don't get mad because it's not some splash move for Konnor Griffin or something.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -deadline/

And on top of that, a clueless non baseball GM in charge.

[General]

Check out this Baseball America on Top 100 prospects traded by the deadline since 2014. There has been an average of 3 per year, but in recent years the numbers have been dwindling. Last year there were 0 traded. And most of the time those prospects traded come from the bottom half of that list.

Over that time only 2 prospects in the top 10, in 2016 and 2014 were traded. And in the same time only 2 more prospects in the top 20, in 2022 and 2021, were traded.

The article doesn't really get into who was traded for those prospects, and I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'm guessing that they were typically bigger and better players than Ryan Helsley, Steven Matz, JoJo Romero, Brendan Donovan, Phil Maton, and old, expensive, and declining Arenado, and anyone else I may be missing from this year's class of possible trade offs.

What I'm getting at is don't expect some huge return. Same as when they traded Montgomery, Flaherty, etc in 2023. You'll just be disappointed. Derrick Goold has said more than once that the Cardinals may hold onto Helsley if they feel like the return they're being offered for him isn't what they might receive if they give him a qualifying offer and they get a comp pick.

Basically, you're not getting some "sure thing" prospect. Maybe if they are smart and can get a huge haul for Donovan. Or maybe a team gets desperate and does something dumb. The odds are just against it. But there's always hope that our scouting guys can identify players that may not be big name guys, but can be quality players for us in the future.

Just don't get mad because it's not some splash move for Konnor Griffin or something.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -deadline/

My expectation is effort. Lack of rumors from major sources seems to indicate lack of trying to fix the bad roster construction and pending FA. Lots of sellers. The time to make moves was last off season. Fedde and Helsley had value. Like I have said I just want to see aggressiveness instead of complacency and risk adverse. Other teams are proactive. Cardinals have been reactive for 10+ years

What were the offers in the offseason? You obviously know they had value so tell us what offers were turned down?

Since you don’t know that, when Mo said in the winter he wasn’t trading Helsley, he cited lack of good offers since clubs don’t want to give up prospects during the winter when the players they have might be good enough. Everyone knows you would get better vale at the trade deadline. Of course, you risk how well the player plays and whether he remains healthy.

It’s never perfect.

Ok let’s see this superior return. I disagree with that premise. 10 years ago maybe. Now there are 7-8 closers on the market driving down the return. They had a chance last deadline and held. Last off season and held. When is the time? The approach is flawed. Milwaukee always trades closers with 2 years control for max return. Why not try that?

Just tell me what offers he turned down in the offseason and then we can have a conversation about whether he should’ve accepted or waited until the deadline.

None because he doesn’t try to move players. He waits and never does anything except minor moves. Holds players until they are worthless then releases them. The time to trade is when they are preforming and have high value. If the Cardinals had Duran with 3 years control left do you think they would look to maximize return? Not a chance. They would hold until last possible moment. Bad management

Wahhhhh. Cry more. You still haven’t told us what offers he turned down so we can assess whether it was the right thing to do. Do you always just make s**t up to meet your preconceived notions?

He traded Helsley. By your logic, you must be ecstatic.

[Ozziesfan41]

Check out this Baseball America on Top 100 prospects traded by the deadline since 2014. There has been an average of 3 per year, but in recent years the numbers have been dwindling. Last year there were 0 traded. And most of the time those prospects traded come from the bottom half of that list.

Over that time only 2 prospects in the top 10, in 2016 and 2014 were traded. And in the same time only 2 more prospects in the top 20, in 2022 and 2021, were traded.

The article doesn't really get into who was traded for those prospects, and I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'm guessing that they were typically bigger and better players than Ryan Helsley, Steven Matz, JoJo Romero, Brendan Donovan, Phil Maton, and old, expensive, and declining Arenado, and anyone else I may be missing from this year's class of possible trade offs.

What I'm getting at is don't expect some huge return. Same as when they traded Montgomery, Flaherty, etc in 2023. You'll just be disappointed. Derrick Goold has said more than once that the Cardinals may hold onto Helsley if they feel like the return they're being offered for him isn't what they might receive if they give him a qualifying offer and they get a comp pick.

Basically, you're not getting some "sure thing" prospect. Maybe if they are smart and can get a huge haul for Donovan. Or maybe a team gets desperate and does something dumb. The odds are just against it. But there's always hope that our scouting guys can identify players that may not be big name guys, but can be quality players for us in the future.

Just don't get mad because it's not some splash move for Konnor Griffin or something.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -deadline/

My expectation is effort. Lack of rumors from major sources seems to indicate lack of trying to fix the bad roster construction and pending FA. Lots of sellers. The time to make moves was last off season. Fedde and Helsley had value. Like I have said I just want to see aggressiveness instead of complacency and risk adverse. Other teams are proactive. Cardinals have been reactive for 10+ years

What were the offers in the offseason? You obviously know they had value so tell us what offers were turned down?

Since you don’t know that, when Mo said in the winter he wasn’t trading Helsley, he cited lack of good offers since clubs don’t want to give up prospects during the winter when the players they have might be good enough. Everyone knows you would get better vale at the trade deadline. Of course, you risk how well the player plays and whether he remains healthy.

It’s never perfect.

Ok let’s see this superior return. I disagree with that premise. 10 years ago maybe. Now there are 7-8 closers on the market driving down the return. They had a chance last deadline and held. Last off season and held. When is the time? The approach is flawed. Milwaukee always trades closers with 2 years control for max return. Why not try that?

Just tell me what offers he turned down in the offseason and then we can have a conversation about whether he should’ve accepted or waited until the deadline.

None because he doesn’t try to move players. He waits and never does anything except minor moves. Holds players until they are worthless then releases them. The time to trade is when they are preforming and have high value. If the Cardinals had Duran with 3 years control left do you think they would look to maximize return? Not a chance. They would hold until last possible moment. Bad management

Wahhhhh. Cry more. You still haven’t told us what offers he turned down so we can assess whether it was the right thing to do. Do you always just make s**t up to meet your preconceived notions?

He traded Helsley. By your logic, you must be ecstatic.

So you seriously think it was better to wait to trade him when he’s only got two months of control left in a down year for him when the acquiring team can’t make a QO than trade him in the offseason when he was coming off a lights out all star season with a year of control and the acquiring team could offer him a QO?

[Youboughtit]

Check out this Baseball America on Top 100 prospects traded by the deadline since 2014. There has been an average of 3 per year, but in recent years the numbers have been dwindling. Last year there were 0 traded. And most of the time those prospects traded come from the bottom half of that list.

Over that time only 2 prospects in the top 10, in 2016 and 2014 were traded. And in the same time only 2 more prospects in the top 20, in 2022 and 2021, were traded.

The article doesn't really get into who was traded for those prospects, and I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'm guessing that they were typically bigger and better players than Ryan Helsley, Steven Matz, JoJo Romero, Brendan Donovan, Phil Maton, and old, expensive, and declining Arenado, and anyone else I may be missing from this year's class of possible trade offs.

What I'm getting at is don't expect some huge return. Same as when they traded Montgomery, Flaherty, etc in 2023. You'll just be disappointed. Derrick Goold has said more than once that the Cardinals may hold onto Helsley if they feel like the return they're being offered for him isn't what they might receive if they give him a qualifying offer and they get a comp pick.

Basically, you're not getting some "sure thing" prospect. Maybe if they are smart and can get a huge haul for Donovan. Or maybe a team gets desperate and does something dumb. The odds are just against it. But there's always hope that our scouting guys can identify players that may not be big name guys, but can be quality players for us in the future.

Just don't get mad because it's not some splash move for Konnor Griffin or something.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -deadline/

My expectation is effort. Lack of rumors from major sources seems to indicate lack of trying to fix the bad roster construction and pending FA. Lots of sellers. The time to make moves was last off season. Fedde and Helsley had value. Like I have said I just want to see aggressiveness instead of complacency and risk adverse. Other teams are proactive. Cardinals have been reactive for 10+ years

What were the offers in the offseason? You obviously know they had value so tell us what offers were turned down?

Since you don’t know that, when Mo said in the winter he wasn’t trading Helsley, he cited lack of good offers since clubs don’t want to give up prospects during the winter when the players they have might be good enough. Everyone knows you would get better vale at the trade deadline. Of course, you risk how well the player plays and whether he remains healthy.

It’s never perfect.

Ok let’s see this superior return. I disagree with that premise. 10 years ago maybe. Now there are 7-8 closers on the market driving down the return. They had a chance last deadline and held. Last off season and held. When is the time? The approach is flawed. Milwaukee always trades closers with 2 years control for max return. Why not try that?

Just tell me what offers he turned down in the offseason and then we can have a conversation about whether he should’ve accepted or waited until the deadline.

None because he doesn’t try to move players. He waits and never does anything except minor moves. Holds players until they are worthless then releases them. The time to trade is when they are preforming and have high value. If the Cardinals had Duran with 3 years control left do you think they would look to maximize return? Not a chance. They would hold until last possible moment. Bad management

Wahhhhh. Cry more. You still haven’t told us what offers he turned down so we can assess whether it was the right thing to do. Do you always just make s**t up to meet your preconceived notions?

He traded Helsley. By your logic, you must be ecstatic.

Teams don’t make that public and you know it. That’s why you’re using that as an excuse.

[General]

Check out this Baseball America on Top 100 prospects traded by the deadline since 2014. There has been an average of 3 per year, but in recent years the numbers have been dwindling. Last year there were 0 traded. And most of the time those prospects traded come from the bottom half of that list.

Over that time only 2 prospects in the top 10, in 2016 and 2014 were traded. And in the same time only 2 more prospects in the top 20, in 2022 and 2021, were traded.

The article doesn't really get into who was traded for those prospects, and I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'm guessing that they were typically bigger and better players than Ryan Helsley, Steven Matz, JoJo Romero, Brendan Donovan, Phil Maton, and old, expensive, and declining Arenado, and anyone else I may be missing from this year's class of possible trade offs.

What I'm getting at is don't expect some huge return. Same as when they traded Montgomery, Flaherty, etc in 2023. You'll just be disappointed. Derrick Goold has said more than once that the Cardinals may hold onto Helsley if they feel like the return they're being offered for him isn't what they might receive if they give him a qualifying offer and they get a comp pick.

Basically, you're not getting some "sure thing" prospect. Maybe if they are smart and can get a huge haul for Donovan. Or maybe a team gets desperate and does something dumb. The odds are just against it. But there's always hope that our scouting guys can identify players that may not be big name guys, but can be quality players for us in the future.

Just don't get mad because it's not some splash move for Konnor Griffin or something.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -deadline/

My expectation is effort. Lack of rumors from major sources seems to indicate lack of trying to fix the bad roster construction and pending FA. Lots of sellers. The time to make moves was last off season. Fedde and Helsley had value. Like I have said I just want to see aggressiveness instead of complacency and risk adverse. Other teams are proactive. Cardinals have been reactive for 10+ years

What were the offers in the offseason? You obviously know they had value so tell us what offers were turned down?

Since you don’t know that, when Mo said in the winter he wasn’t trading Helsley, he cited lack of good offers since clubs don’t want to give up prospects during the winter when the players they have might be good enough. Everyone knows you would get better vale at the trade deadline. Of course, you risk how well the player plays and whether he remains healthy.

It’s never perfect.

Ok let’s see this superior return. I disagree with that premise. 10 years ago maybe. Now there are 7-8 closers on the market driving down the return. They had a chance last deadline and held. Last off season and held. When is the time? The approach is flawed. Milwaukee always trades closers with 2 years control for max return. Why not try that?

Just tell me what offers he turned down in the offseason and then we can have a conversation about whether he should’ve accepted or waited until the deadline.

None because he doesn’t try to move players. He waits and never does anything except minor moves. Holds players until they are worthless then releases them. The time to trade is when they are preforming and have high value. If the Cardinals had Duran with 3 years control left do you think they would look to maximize return? Not a chance. They would hold until last possible moment. Bad management

Wahhhhh. Cry more. You still haven’t told us what offers he turned down so we can assess whether it was the right thing to do. Do you always just make s**t up to meet your preconceived notions?

He traded Helsley. By your logic, you must be ecstatic.

So you seriously think it was better to wait to trade him when he’s only got two months of control left in a down year for him when the acquiring team can’t make a QO than trade him in the offseason when he was coming off a lights out all star season with a year of control and the acquiring team could offer him a QO?

Everyone in baseball knows this but since you and the other joker mistakenly think you’re smarter than everyone in baseball, prove otherwise. Then while you’re at it, explain why all these other teams are just getting around to making trades. In your little head, shouldn’t all of this trading been done in the offseason?

Good night Tinkerbell.

[Voldemort]

Check out this Baseball America on Top 100 prospects traded by the deadline since 2014. There has been an average of 3 per year, but in recent years the numbers have been dwindling. Last year there were 0 traded. And most of the time those prospects traded come from the bottom half of that list.

Over that time only 2 prospects in the top 10, in 2016 and 2014 were traded. And in the same time only 2 more prospects in the top 20, in 2022 and 2021, were traded.

The article doesn't really get into who was traded for those prospects, and I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'm guessing that they were typically bigger and better players than Ryan Helsley, Steven Matz, JoJo Romero, Brendan Donovan, Phil Maton, and old, expensive, and declining Arenado, and anyone else I may be missing from this year's class of possible trade offs.

What I'm getting at is don't expect some huge return. Same as when they traded Montgomery, Flaherty, etc in 2023. You'll just be disappointed. Derrick Goold has said more than once that the Cardinals may hold onto Helsley if they feel like the return they're being offered for him isn't what they might receive if they give him a qualifying offer and they get a comp pick.

Basically, you're not getting some "sure thing" prospect. Maybe if they are smart and can get a huge haul for Donovan. Or maybe a team gets desperate and does something dumb. The odds are just against it. But there's always hope that our scouting guys can identify players that may not be big name guys, but can be quality players for us in the future.

Just don't get mad because it's not some splash move for Konnor Griffin or something.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -deadline/

Nice post Ronnie!

[AZ_Cardsfan]

MLB.COM HAS already slotting Baez in as Cards #6 prospect.

[Ronnie Dobbs]

Everyone seems to think that we should be able to land one STUD prospect for Helsley instead of three prospects with potential. But why? When is the last time this happened? Has it happened this deadline? It just doesn't seems like teams are willing to do these deals anymore.

What makes someone think that Ryan Helsley is going to get you like a top prospect? Even if he got a top 50 prospect, is that a sure thing? No way. They got three guys with potential. Based on history, and looking at all the players traded this deadline and what teams got for them, it looks like this is a fair return.

[ClassicO]

Everyone seems to think that we should be able to land one STUD prospect for Helsley instead of three prospects with potential. But why? When is the last time this happened? Has it happened this deadline? It just doesn't seems like teams are willing to do these deals anymore.

What makes someone think that Ryan Helsley is going to get you like a top prospect? Even if he got a top 50 prospect, is that a sure thing? No way. They got three guys with potential. Based on history, and looking at all the players traded this deadline and what teams got for them, it looks like this is a fair return.

This.
It's absurd to think that a rental - especially one who hasn't had a great year - has to guarantee a future good-to-great starting player. These trades can bring prospects - period. They weren't trading Soto.

[ramfandan]

Everyone seems to think that we should be able to land one STUD prospect for Helsley instead of three prospects with potential. But why? When is the last time this happened? Has it happened this deadline? It just doesn't seems like teams are willing to do these deals anymore.

What makes someone think that Ryan Helsley is going to get you like a top prospect? Even if he got a top 50 prospect, is that a sure thing? No way. They got three guys with potential. Based on history, and looking at all the players traded this deadline and what teams got for them, it looks like this is a fair return.

Good points , Ronnie ! Some only look at Helsley's performance and forget that his contractural time left for Mets. If Helsley was under contract for 2026 and maybe even 2027 and was guaranteed to play for the Mets another year or two , the return would have been far greater. He is their property for two months. Then he becomes a free agent .

Years back the Indians sent future Hall of Famer P CC Sabatthia to the Milwaukee Brewers for Matt LaPorta, Zach Johnson , Rob Bryson and player to be named later.
That was a rental just like Helsley . You don't get big name guys for a short rental even for a pitcher the caliber of Sabathia

[sdaltons]

Check out this Baseball America on Top 100 prospects traded by the deadline since 2014. There has been an average of 3 per year, but in recent years the numbers have been dwindling. Last year there were 0 traded. And most of the time those prospects traded come from the bottom half of that list.

Over that time only 2 prospects in the top 10, in 2016 and 2014 were traded. And in the same time only 2 more prospects in the top 20, in 2022 and 2021, were traded.

The article doesn't really get into who was traded for those prospects, and I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'm guessing that they were typically bigger and better players than Ryan Helsley, Steven Matz, JoJo Romero, Brendan Donovan, Phil Maton, and old, expensive, and declining Arenado, and anyone else I may be missing from this year's class of possible trade offs.

What I'm getting at is don't expect some huge return. Same as when they traded Montgomery, Flaherty, etc in 2023. You'll just be disappointed. Derrick Goold has said more than once that the Cardinals may hold onto Helsley if they feel like the return they're being offered for him isn't what they might receive if they give him a qualifying offer and they get a comp pick.

Basically, you're not getting some "sure thing" prospect. Maybe if they are smart and can get a huge haul for Donovan. Or maybe a team gets desperate and does something dumb. The odds are just against it. But there's always hope that our scouting guys can identify players that may not be big name guys, but can be quality players for us in the future.

Just don't get mad because it's not some splash move for Konnor Griffin or something.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -deadline/

My expectation is effort. Lack of rumors from major sources seems to indicate lack of trying to fix the bad roster construction and pending FA. Lots of sellers. The time to make moves was last off season. Fedde and Helsley had value. Like I have said I just want to see aggressiveness instead of complacency and risk adverse. Other teams are proactive. Cardinals have been reactive for 10+ years

What were the offers in the offseason? You obviously know they had value so tell us what offers were turned down?

Since you don’t know that, when Mo said in the winter he wasn’t trading Helsley, he cited lack of good offers since clubs don’t want to give up prospects during the winter when the players they have might be good enough. Everyone knows you would get better vale at the trade deadline. Of course, you risk how well the player plays and whether he remains healthy.

It’s never perfect.

Ok let’s see this superior return. I disagree with that premise. 10 years ago maybe. Now there are 7-8 closers on the market driving down the return. They had a chance last deadline and held. Last off season and held. When is the time? The approach is flawed. Milwaukee always trades closers with 2 years control for max return. Why not try that?

Just tell me what offers he turned down in the offseason and then we can have a conversation about whether he should’ve accepted or waited until the deadline.

None because he doesn’t try to move players. He waits and never does anything except minor moves. Holds players until they are worthless then releases them. The time to trade is when they are preforming and have high value. If the Cardinals had Duran with 3 years control left do you think they would look to maximize return? Not a chance. They would hold until last possible moment. Bad management

Wahhhhh. Cry more. You still haven’t told us what offers he turned down so we can assess whether it was the right thing to do. Do you always just make s**t up to meet your preconceived notions?

He traded Helsley. By your logic, you must be ecstatic.

So you seriously think it was better to wait to trade him when he’s only got two months of control left in a down year for him when the acquiring team can’t make a QO than trade him in the offseason when he was coming off a lights out all star season with a year of control and the acquiring team could offer him a QO?

Everyone in baseball knows this but since you and the other joker mistakenly think you’re smarter than everyone in baseball, prove otherwise. Then while you’re at it, explain why all these other teams are just getting around to making trades. In your little head, shouldn’t all of this trading been done in the offseason?

Good night Tinkerbell.

Are you saying you think no one was traded in the offseason? Yikes.