Temper Your Trade Expectations

[Ronnie Dobbs]

Check out this Baseball America on Top 100 prospects traded by the deadline since 2014. There has been an average of 3 per year, but in recent years the numbers have been dwindling. Last year there were 0 traded. And most of the time those prospects traded come from the bottom half of that list.

Over that time only 2 prospects in the top 10, in 2016 and 2014 were traded. And in the same time only 2 more prospects in the top 20, in 2022 and 2021, were traded.

The article doesn't really get into who was traded for those prospects, and I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'm guessing that they were typically bigger and better players than Ryan Helsley, Steven Matz, JoJo Romero, Brendan Donovan, Phil Maton, and old, expensive, and declining Arenado, and anyone else I may be missing from this year's class of possible trade offs.

What I'm getting at is don't expect some huge return. Same as when they traded Montgomery, Flaherty, etc in 2023. You'll just be disappointed. Derrick Goold has said more than once that the Cardinals may hold onto Helsley if they feel like the return they're being offered for him isn't what they might receive if they give him a qualifying offer and they get a comp pick.

Basically, you're not getting some "sure thing" prospect. Maybe if they are smart and can get a huge haul for Donovan. Or maybe a team gets desperate and does something dumb. The odds are just against it. But there's always hope that our scouting guys can identify players that may not be big name guys, but can be quality players for us in the future.

Just don't get mad because it's not some splash move for Konnor Griffin or something.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -deadline/

[Youboughtit]

Check out this Baseball America on Top 100 prospects traded by the deadline since 2014. There has been an average of 3 per year, but in recent years the numbers have been dwindling. Last year there were 0 traded. And most of the time those prospects traded come from the bottom half of that list.

Over that time only 2 prospects in the top 10, in 2016 and 2014 were traded. And in the same time only 2 more prospects in the top 20, in 2022 and 2021, were traded.

The article doesn't really get into who was traded for those prospects, and I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'm guessing that they were typically bigger and better players than Ryan Helsley, Steven Matz, JoJo Romero, Brendan Donovan, Phil Maton, and old, expensive, and declining Arenado, and anyone else I may be missing from this year's class of possible trade offs.

What I'm getting at is don't expect some huge return. Same as when they traded Montgomery, Flaherty, etc in 2023. You'll just be disappointed. Derrick Goold has said more than once that the Cardinals may hold onto Helsley if they feel like the return they're being offered for him isn't what they might receive if they give him a qualifying offer and they get a comp pick.

Basically, you're not getting some "sure thing" prospect. Maybe if they are smart and can get a huge haul for Donovan. Or maybe a team gets desperate and does something dumb. The odds are just against it. But there's always hope that our scouting guys can identify players that may not be big name guys, but can be quality players for us in the future.

Just don't get mad because it's not some splash move for Konnor Griffin or something.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -deadline/

My expectation is effort. Lack of rumors from major sources seems to indicate lack of trying to fix the bad roster construction and pending FA. Lots of sellers. The time to make moves was last off season. Fedde and Helsley had value. Like I have said I just want to see aggressiveness instead of complacency and risk adverse. Other teams are proactive. Cardinals have been reactive for 10+ years

[AZ_Cardsfan]

You had me nodding in agreement until you included Donovan. He IS worth a top 50 high ceiling prospect. The rest will all be maybes or low ceilings.

[AZ_Cardsfan]

My expectation is effort. Lack of rumors from major sources seems to indicate lack of trying to fix the bad roster construction and pending FA. Lots of sellers. The time to make moves was last off season. Fedde and Helsley had value. Like I have said I just want to see aggressiveness instead of complacency and risk adverse. Other teams are proactive. Cardinals have been reactive for 10+ years

Same. I was stunned they didn't deal Fedde and Helsley in December. And now the writing is clear for this year MOVE.

I mean I get it maximize return and it takes two to tango but don't wait until the nth hour to strike a deal. And do multiples. If they can add 3-4 players into the Cardinals top 20 list fine. Or if they deal Donovan add one in the top 5 AND 2 more in the top 20.

[General]

Check out this Baseball America on Top 100 prospects traded by the deadline since 2014. There has been an average of 3 per year, but in recent years the numbers have been dwindling. Last year there were 0 traded. And most of the time those prospects traded come from the bottom half of that list.

Over that time only 2 prospects in the top 10, in 2016 and 2014 were traded. And in the same time only 2 more prospects in the top 20, in 2022 and 2021, were traded.

The article doesn't really get into who was traded for those prospects, and I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'm guessing that they were typically bigger and better players than Ryan Helsley, Steven Matz, JoJo Romero, Brendan Donovan, Phil Maton, and old, expensive, and declining Arenado, and anyone else I may be missing from this year's class of possible trade offs.

What I'm getting at is don't expect some huge return. Same as when they traded Montgomery, Flaherty, etc in 2023. You'll just be disappointed. Derrick Goold has said more than once that the Cardinals may hold onto Helsley if they feel like the return they're being offered for him isn't what they might receive if they give him a qualifying offer and they get a comp pick.

Basically, you're not getting some "sure thing" prospect. Maybe if they are smart and can get a huge haul for Donovan. Or maybe a team gets desperate and does something dumb. The odds are just against it. But there's always hope that our scouting guys can identify players that may not be big name guys, but can be quality players for us in the future.

Just don't get mad because it's not some splash move for Konnor Griffin or something.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -deadline/

My expectation is effort. Lack of rumors from major sources seems to indicate lack of trying to fix the bad roster construction and pending FA. Lots of sellers. The time to make moves was last off season. Fedde and Helsley had value. Like I have said I just want to see aggressiveness instead of complacency and risk adverse. Other teams are proactive. Cardinals have been reactive for 10+ years

What were the offers in the offseason? You obviously know they had value so tell us what offers were turned down?

Since you don’t know that, when Mo said in the winter he wasn’t trading Helsley, he cited lack of good offers since clubs don’t want to give up prospects during the winter when the players they have might be good enough. Everyone knows you would get better vale at the trade deadline. Of course, you risk how well the player plays and whether he remains healthy.

It’s never perfect.

[ramfandan]

Rather than one high prospect , I am expecting 2 or 3 players (leaning more to a 3 for 1 return ). Top player of a multi- player trade may be a 10th best prospect ? another in teens ? just speculating

[Youboughtit]

Check out this Baseball America on Top 100 prospects traded by the deadline since 2014. There has been an average of 3 per year, but in recent years the numbers have been dwindling. Last year there were 0 traded. And most of the time those prospects traded come from the bottom half of that list.

Over that time only 2 prospects in the top 10, in 2016 and 2014 were traded. And in the same time only 2 more prospects in the top 20, in 2022 and 2021, were traded.

The article doesn't really get into who was traded for those prospects, and I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'm guessing that they were typically bigger and better players than Ryan Helsley, Steven Matz, JoJo Romero, Brendan Donovan, Phil Maton, and old, expensive, and declining Arenado, and anyone else I may be missing from this year's class of possible trade offs.

What I'm getting at is don't expect some huge return. Same as when they traded Montgomery, Flaherty, etc in 2023. You'll just be disappointed. Derrick Goold has said more than once that the Cardinals may hold onto Helsley if they feel like the return they're being offered for him isn't what they might receive if they give him a qualifying offer and they get a comp pick.

Basically, you're not getting some "sure thing" prospect. Maybe if they are smart and can get a huge haul for Donovan. Or maybe a team gets desperate and does something dumb. The odds are just against it. But there's always hope that our scouting guys can identify players that may not be big name guys, but can be quality players for us in the future.

Just don't get mad because it's not some splash move for Konnor Griffin or something.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -deadline/

My expectation is effort. Lack of rumors from major sources seems to indicate lack of trying to fix the bad roster construction and pending FA. Lots of sellers. The time to make moves was last off season. Fedde and Helsley had value. Like I have said I just want to see aggressiveness instead of complacency and risk adverse. Other teams are proactive. Cardinals have been reactive for 10+ years

What were the offers in the offseason? You obviously know they had value so tell us what offers were turned down?

Since you don’t know that, when Mo said in the winter he wasn’t trading Helsley, he cited lack of good offers since clubs don’t want to give up prospects during the winter when the players they have might be good enough. Everyone knows you would get better vale at the trade deadline. Of course, you risk how well the player plays and whether he remains healthy.

It’s never perfect.

Ok let’s see this superior return. I disagree with that premise. 10 years ago maybe. Now there are 7-8 closers on the market driving down the return. They had a chance last deadline and held. Last off season and held. When is the time? The approach is flawed. Milwaukee always trades closers with 2 years control for max return. Why not try that?

[JuanAgosto]

Im tempering my expectations solely because of this guy.

images (48).jpeg (13.46 KiB) Viewed 621 times

[Ronnie Dobbs]

You had me nodding in agreement until you included Donovan. He IS worth a top 50 high ceiling prospect. The rest will all be maybes or low ceilings.

That's fair. I mentioned getting a haul for Donovan later in the post, but you're right, including him in those names is wrong. He should get a big return. The other guys? I wouldn't expect it unless some team freaks out and does something crazy.

Judging from this deadline, not a bunch of names going. Mick Abel (MLB #49) just went for the Twins' closer, but no one on our team outside Donovan is likely to get that.

[riff raff]

Im tempering my expectations solely because of this guy.

images (48).jpeg

Fusilli Mo all up your bum
So weird

[Ronnie Dobbs]

Rather than one high prospect , I am expecting 2 or 3 players (leaning more to a 3 for 1 return ). Top player of a multi- player trade may be a 10th best prospect ? another in teens ? just speculating

I don't think this is what you're trying to say, but I don't put much weight into individual team prospect rankings. Honestly, even the overalls rankings to an extent are kinda bogus, since every organization has their own scouting department, rankings, etc. They're a decent enough roadmap, though, and us regular folks have to be able to judge these guys somehow.

But all I hope is if our guys trade for someone, whether they're out of the Top 100 or a team's #13 prospect, is that they feel like the player is good enough to play. Maybe get a player and unlock something that another organization hasn't.

[JuanAgosto]

Im tempering my expectations solely because of this guy.

images (48).jpeg

Fusilli Mo all up your bum
So weird

You hanging from Mo's sack is weirder.

[General]

Check out this Baseball America on Top 100 prospects traded by the deadline since 2014. There has been an average of 3 per year, but in recent years the numbers have been dwindling. Last year there were 0 traded. And most of the time those prospects traded come from the bottom half of that list.

Over that time only 2 prospects in the top 10, in 2016 and 2014 were traded. And in the same time only 2 more prospects in the top 20, in 2022 and 2021, were traded.

The article doesn't really get into who was traded for those prospects, and I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'm guessing that they were typically bigger and better players than Ryan Helsley, Steven Matz, JoJo Romero, Brendan Donovan, Phil Maton, and old, expensive, and declining Arenado, and anyone else I may be missing from this year's class of possible trade offs.

What I'm getting at is don't expect some huge return. Same as when they traded Montgomery, Flaherty, etc in 2023. You'll just be disappointed. Derrick Goold has said more than once that the Cardinals may hold onto Helsley if they feel like the return they're being offered for him isn't what they might receive if they give him a qualifying offer and they get a comp pick.

Basically, you're not getting some "sure thing" prospect. Maybe if they are smart and can get a huge haul for Donovan. Or maybe a team gets desperate and does something dumb. The odds are just against it. But there's always hope that our scouting guys can identify players that may not be big name guys, but can be quality players for us in the future.

Just don't get mad because it's not some splash move for Konnor Griffin or something.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -deadline/

My expectation is effort. Lack of rumors from major sources seems to indicate lack of trying to fix the bad roster construction and pending FA. Lots of sellers. The time to make moves was last off season. Fedde and Helsley had value. Like I have said I just want to see aggressiveness instead of complacency and risk adverse. Other teams are proactive. Cardinals have been reactive for 10+ years

What were the offers in the offseason? You obviously know they had value so tell us what offers were turned down?

Since you don’t know that, when Mo said in the winter he wasn’t trading Helsley, he cited lack of good offers since clubs don’t want to give up prospects during the winter when the players they have might be good enough. Everyone knows you would get better vale at the trade deadline. Of course, you risk how well the player plays and whether he remains healthy.

It’s never perfect.

Ok let’s see this superior return. I disagree with that premise. 10 years ago maybe. Now there are 7-8 closers on the market driving down the return. They had a chance last deadline and held. Last off season and held. When is the time? The approach is flawed. Milwaukee always trades closers with 2 years control for max return. Why not try that?

Just tell me what offers he turned down in the offseason and then we can have a conversation about whether he should’ve accepted or waited until the deadline.

[sdaltons]

Do people on here have expectations that aren't tempered? For this team? Run by this guy?


The only safe bet here is we are going to be overall disappointed this time tomorrow.

[riff raff]

Im tempering my expectations solely because of this guy.

images (48).jpeg

Fusilli Mo all up your bum
So weird

You hanging from Mo's sack is weirder.

Mo is okay. He hired Bloom that everyone hangs their hopes on.
However, you have a weird obsession. Fusilli Mo.

[Youboughtit]

Check out this Baseball America on Top 100 prospects traded by the deadline since 2014. There has been an average of 3 per year, but in recent years the numbers have been dwindling. Last year there were 0 traded. And most of the time those prospects traded come from the bottom half of that list.

Over that time only 2 prospects in the top 10, in 2016 and 2014 were traded. And in the same time only 2 more prospects in the top 20, in 2022 and 2021, were traded.

The article doesn't really get into who was traded for those prospects, and I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'm guessing that they were typically bigger and better players than Ryan Helsley, Steven Matz, JoJo Romero, Brendan Donovan, Phil Maton, and old, expensive, and declining Arenado, and anyone else I may be missing from this year's class of possible trade offs.

What I'm getting at is don't expect some huge return. Same as when they traded Montgomery, Flaherty, etc in 2023. You'll just be disappointed. Derrick Goold has said more than once that the Cardinals may hold onto Helsley if they feel like the return they're being offered for him isn't what they might receive if they give him a qualifying offer and they get a comp pick.

Basically, you're not getting some "sure thing" prospect. Maybe if they are smart and can get a huge haul for Donovan. Or maybe a team gets desperate and does something dumb. The odds are just against it. But there's always hope that our scouting guys can identify players that may not be big name guys, but can be quality players for us in the future.

Just don't get mad because it's not some splash move for Konnor Griffin or something.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -deadline/

My expectation is effort. Lack of rumors from major sources seems to indicate lack of trying to fix the bad roster construction and pending FA. Lots of sellers. The time to make moves was last off season. Fedde and Helsley had value. Like I have said I just want to see aggressiveness instead of complacency and risk adverse. Other teams are proactive. Cardinals have been reactive for 10+ years

What were the offers in the offseason? You obviously know they had value so tell us what offers were turned down?

Since you don’t know that, when Mo said in the winter he wasn’t trading Helsley, he cited lack of good offers since clubs don’t want to give up prospects during the winter when the players they have might be good enough. Everyone knows you would get better vale at the trade deadline. Of course, you risk how well the player plays and whether he remains healthy.

It’s never perfect.

Ok let’s see this superior return. I disagree with that premise. 10 years ago maybe. Now there are 7-8 closers on the market driving down the return. They had a chance last deadline and held. Last off season and held. When is the time? The approach is flawed. Milwaukee always trades closers with 2 years control for max return. Why not try that?

Just tell me what offers he turned down in the offseason and then we can have a conversation about whether he should’ve accepted or waited until the deadline.

None because he doesn’t try to move players. He waits and never does anything except minor moves. Holds players until they are worthless then releases them. The time to trade is when they are preforming and have high value. If the Cardinals had Duran with 3 years control left do you think they would look to maximize return? Not a chance. They would hold until last possible moment. Bad management