Sonny Gray on the trade block?

[Ronnie Dobbs]

There is zero chance they'd get anything for Sonny Gray.

[PadsFS07]

We would get nothing of return for Arenado and Gray. They would be salary dumps, leaving us with 3 holes in our SP rotation and one at 3B.

That’s my big issue. These guys are getting market rate so you are only clearing the books and we are very unlikely to take on free agents.

[Shady]

Trading Arenado or Gray would accomplish only saving money.

Trading Gray would also make the team significantly worse.

trading both saves lots of money and could well improve the team.....

It would be prudent to move half their salaries and get a couple decent (top 30 for team) in return. It would open up a needed position spot if Arenado is dealt.

[Midrange Jay]

We would get nothing of return for Arenado and Gray. They would be salary dumps, leaving us with 3 holes in our SP rotation and one at 3B.

That’s my big issue. These guys are getting market rate so you are only clearing the books and we are very unlikely to take on free agents.

Arenado is $30 million for the next 2 years. There won’t be anything much better in free agency at that price. Gray is $65 million for the next 2 years. That can get us a decent free agent SP, but we already need 2. We would have to eat a big chunk of contract to get major league ready talent back.

[An Old Friend]

many teams in contention need pitching

the yankees need a lot of it.

Sonny was horrible in New York, I doubt either side would be interested in a reunion

[Karmaloop3]

There is zero chance they'd get anything for Sonny Gray.

I very much doubt that Gray is a pure salary dump. I do think they'd need to kick in some cash in order to get some real value in return.

[An Old Friend]

There is zero chance they'd get anything for Sonny Gray.

I very much doubt that Gray is a pure salary dump. I do think they'd need to kick in some cash in order to get some real value in return.

How much, $15-20MM? Is DeWitt doing that?

[bfib]

It was my understanding that we are in the wild card race…why trade our best SP?

the cards are going nowhere this year...gray who has a 4.33 ERA this year is due 35 mill next year...he could help a contender and if somebody made a compelling offer let him go

Who cares what he makes. The payroll is going to be under 100M next year with him anyway.

We also have no replacement

[RichieRichSTL]

It was my understanding that we are in the wild card race…why trade our best SP?

the cards are going nowhere this year...gray who has a 4.33 ERA this year is due 35 mill next year...he could help a contender and if somebody made a compelling offer let him go

They are competing with a number of other teams for the 3rd WC spot and are behind. Unless they upgrade their roster, they will be very unlikely to get it.

[Karmaloop3]

How much, $15-20MM? Is DeWitt doing that?

I mean, the Cardinals paid to dump Mike Leake on the Mariners. Not saying that they're going to be thrilled doing so, but if the Cardinals have the financial wiggle room to do so in order to maximize the return they should do so. And I'd say it's more on a sliding scale. If they're only willing to do $5M-$10M, it's probably only a marginal upgrade in prospects. I believe the last iteration had the cost of a single WAR being ~$9M. He's probably safely a 3.5 WAR player next year, so $31.5 and he's set to make $35M.

[rockondlouie]

Unless someone can post a quote from Gary saying he's willing to waive the NTC, this is a moot point.

[An Old Friend]

How much, $15-20MM? Is DeWitt doing that?

I mean, the Cardinals paid to dump Mike Leake on the Mariners. Not saying that they're going to be thrilled doing so, but if the Cardinals have the financial wiggle room to do so in order to maximize the return they should do so. And I'd say it's more on a sliding scale. If they're only willing to do $5M-$10M, it's probably only a marginal upgrade in prospects. I believe the last iteration had the cost of a single WAR being ~$9M. He's probably safely a 3.5 WAR player next year, so $31.5 and he's set to make $35M.

He's at 1.0 fWAR / 1.3 bWAR
His ZiPS projection is 1.8
He hasn't posted a 3.5 WAR season since 2022

So to "safely" project him at 3.5 WAR next year... is absurd. Any acquiring team will likely be projecting him at half that number, and the value / return for a projection below 2 WAR is very little.

So at that point, you're throwing in $15-20MM to get a marginal prospect.

[Karmaloop3]

He's at 1.0 fWAR / 1.3 bWAR
His ZiPS projection is 1.8
He hasn't posted a 3.5 WAR season since 2022

So to "safely" project him at 3.5 WAR next year... is absurd. Any acquiring team will likely be projecting him at half that number, and the value / return for a projection below 2 WAR is very little.

So at that point, you're throwing in $15-20MM to get a marginal prospect.

Personally, I prefer FanGraphs to Baseball-Reference but that's largely preference.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/sonny ... position=P

Sonny Gray is currently at 2.8 fWAR with anywhere between 1 and 1.3 fWAR projected for the rest of the season. Last year, he was 3.8 fWAR and the year before he was 5.4 WAR. He hasn't dipped below 2.5 fWAR since 2020. Ironically speaking, as long as he's stayed healthy he's usually productive. For seasons in which he threw 150+ innings, he's minimally 2.5 fWAR. In seasons in which he threw 165+ innings, he's never posted a fWAR lower than 3.5 fWAR. So I guess if your'e projecting injuries, yeah, he's not a safe bet to hit 3.5 fWAR.

The problem is there's really not SP available. Right now, the "best" names include Mitch Keller, Sandy Alcantara, and Zac Gallen. The problem is you're not going to get a ton of surplus value out of him, and the bigger road block is his NTC.

[scoutyjones2]

It was my understanding that we are in the wild card race…why trade our best SP?

the cards are going nowhere this year...gray who has a 4.33 ERA this year is due 35 mill next year...he could help a contender and if somebody made a compelling offer let him go

You paint all the reasons why no one should trade for him!

[CorneliusWolfe]

We would get nothing of return for Arenado and Gray. They would be salary dumps, leaving us with 3 holes in our SP rotation and one at 3B.

That’s my big issue. These guys are getting market rate so you are only clearing the books and we are very unlikely to take on free agents.

There are some here that would love nothing more than clearing the books. They find it very gratifying when BDW saves $$. I guess they think he’s going to reinvest it in the team.

[An Old Friend]

He's at 1.0 fWAR / 1.3 bWAR
His ZiPS projection is 1.8
He hasn't posted a 3.5 WAR season since 2022

So to "safely" project him at 3.5 WAR next year... is absurd. Any acquiring team will likely be projecting him at half that number, and the value / return for a projection below 2 WAR is very little.

So at that point, you're throwing in $15-20MM to get a marginal prospect.

Personally, I prefer FanGraphs to Baseball-Reference but that's largely preference.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/sonny ... position=P

Sonny Gray is currently at 2.8 fWAR with anywhere between 1 and 1.3 fWAR projected for the rest of the season. Last year, he was 3.8 fWAR and the year before he was 5.4 WAR. He hasn't dipped below 2.5 fWAR since 2020. Ironically speaking, as long as he's stayed healthy he's usually productive. For seasons in which he threw 150+ innings, he's minimally 2.5 fWAR. In seasons in which he threw 165+ innings, he's never posted a fWAR lower than 3.5 fWAR. So I guess if your'e projecting injuries, yeah, he's not a safe bet to hit 3.5 fWAR.

The problem is there's really not SP available. Right now, the "best" names include Mitch Keller, Sandy Alcantara, and Zac Gallen. The problem is you're not going to get a ton of surplus value out of him, and the bigger road block is his NTC.

OK, first - my bad. I was totally looking at Nolan Arenado, and I'm not sure why. So, my apologies.

On Sonny... ZiPS projection has him at 1.6 fWAR in 2026. FWIW.