Active players who might get to 3,000 hits

[jcgmoi]

Do y'all know about Bill James' Favorite Toy? It's a method James came up with back in the 80s to estimate the chances that a player reaches a statistical goal.

The first player to come to mind when I read the OP was Luis Arraez. For grins I'll step through the BJFT calculations to see what they say about Arraez' chances of getting 3000 hits.

To keep things simple, I'll ignore his work this year. Pretend I'm typing this 1 Jan 2025.

At the beginning of the season Arraez had 847 hits and was 27 yo. His hits needed to reach goal is 3000 - 847 = 2153.

I also need his projected remaining seasons. That's calculated as (24 - .6(age)). For 27 yo Arraez this works out to 7.8.

I need Arraez' established hit level. James used (last season*3+second to last season*2+third to last season)/6. Arraez' established hit level is 196.5 hits.

Then his projected remaining hits is his projected remaining seasons multiplied by his established hit level. 7.8 * 196.5 = 1532.7

His chance of reaching 3000 hits is [projected remaining total hits - (hits needed/2) / hits needed]. [1532.7 - (2153/2) / 2153] = .2118.

By this method Arraez went into the 2025 season with a little better than one chance in five of reaching 3000 hits in his career, assuming I have made no errors.

Arraez has 108 hits so far this season in what's been a down year for him. That's still good enough to tie for 10th most in MLB.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Favorite_toy

[An Old Friend]

Soto is injury prone

Anyone else have any clue who rock has mistaken Soto for since he won’t answer it himself?

Rock can most likely see into the future as I am able to…..

Haha. It seems he’s uncomfortable defending the statement, huh?

Soto has only had one 165 hit year. And not getting there this year.

I’m talking about him citing that Soto is injury prone.

[rockondlouie]

Vladdy, Jr 26 yrs old would have to average 180 hits for the next 11 seasons........only current player I see w/a chance at 3,000.

He's averaged 178 hits a year in his career.



These mentioned have a slim to no chance:

Witt, Jr 25 yrs old would have to average 180 hits a season for the next 13 years to reach 3,000....very slim chance.

Soto turns 27 in Oct, he would have to average 180 hits a season for the next 11 years to reach 3,000.....no chance
(Soto's career high is only 166 hits, he walks too much and is hurt too much)

Betts turns 33 in Oct, he'd have to average 185 hits a year to age 40 to reach 3,000......no chance

In the old days, we would factor in some 200 hit seasons for Bobby Witt Jr. to give him a chance. But until players get to 2,000 hits, I don't really project anyone because of the injury issue and the age related decline issues.

Freeman is playing at such a high level still I think he has a > 50% chance to make it. Altuve is declining now, so I would put him under 50%.

Mike Trout is the quintessential player to look at when we start projecting too early. Injuries just decimated him. None of his counting stats will be that great, albeit, he will make it to the HOF based on his 2012-2020 run as the best player in baseball. But, after that...I wonder if his contract is the worst of all-time...

Freeman turns 36 in September, he's due for some Gold-like regression as they're very similar players.

He's 636 hits short of 3,000.

His current contract expires after 2027 and he will have made over $200M dollars!

Would a team want him for his age 38 & 39 seasons?

Would Freddie even want to play after this contract expires?

(IMO) like Goldy he's already put together a Hall of Fame worthy career if he retires after the 2027 season.

He'll need to average 160 hits a season (a fair guesstimate for his age 36 - 39 seasons).

I think he falls just short.

(And agree 100% on Trout)

[An Old Friend]

Vladdy, Jr 26 yrs old would have to average 180 hits for the next 11 seasons........only current player I see w/a chance at 3,000.

He's averaged 178 hits a year in his career.



These mentioned have a slim to no chance:

Witt, Jr 25 yrs old would have to average 180 hits a season for the next 13 years to reach 3,000....very slim chance.

Soto turns 27 in Oct, he would have to average 180 hits a season for the next 11 years to reach 3,000.....no chance
(Soto's career high is only 166 hits, he walks too much and is hurt too much)

Betts turns 33 in Oct, he'd have to average 185 hits a year to age 40 to reach 3,000......no chance

In the old days, we would factor in some 200 hit seasons for Bobby Witt Jr. to give him a chance. But until players get to 2,000 hits, I don't really project anyone because of the injury issue and the age related decline issues.

Freeman is playing at such a high level still I think he has a > 50% chance to make it. Altuve is declining now, so I would put him under 50%.

Mike Trout is the quintessential player to look at when we start projecting too early. Injuries just decimated him. None of his counting stats will be that great, albeit, he will make it to the HOF based on his 2012-2020 run as the best player in baseball. But, after that...I wonder if his contract is the worst of all-time...

Freeman turns 36 in September, he's due for some Gold-like regression as they're very similar players.

He's 636 hits short of 3,000.

His current contract expires after 2027 and he will have made over $200M dollars!

Would a team want him for his age 38 & 39 seasons?

Would Freddie even want to play after this contract expires?

(IMO) like Goldy he's already put together a Hall of Fame worthy career if he retires after the 2027 season.

He'll need to average 160 hits a season (a fair guesstimate for his age 36 - 39 seasons).

I think he falls just short.

(And agree 100% on Trout)

Why have you said Soto is hurt too much?

[WaltsSuccessor]

Machado has to be the safest choice. Just crossed 2,000 hits, just turned 33. He's under contract for 8 more seasons through age 40. Other than the ACL tear in 2013, he's been extremely durable. Not a big stretch to get there.

[An Old Friend]

Soto is injury prone

Very, very bizarre that rock continues to avoid supporting this statement or answering to it.

Hard to take anything he says seriously when he lacks integrity on things like this.

rock, what’s up, man??