Offer Sheet and Joel Hofer

[bluetunehead]

If I’m Hofer, I gladly accept a raise to play in Edm. Why wouldn’t he

I’m sure he would but they’ll have to find someone to dump Evander Kane on if they want the money to work. They have less than 12M in cap space with Bouchard and 3 more forwards still needed.

They probably should do that anyway, but making room enough for a Hofer offer the Blues couldn’t just match will be difficult without cap dumps.

Even if the Blues match it’s not ideal for either side. I’m sure Hofer is getting sick of second fiddle at this point. I’m sure he wants an opportunity as much or more than the money.

Sick of second fiddle? He’s 24 and has been competent but not exactly dominant. There are only 2 goalies younger than him who had more games played last year: Dustin Wolf and Spencer Knight.

[theograce]

If I’m Hofer, I gladly accept a raise to play in Edm. Why wouldn’t he

I’m sure he would but they’ll have to find someone to dump Evander Kane on if they want the money to work. They have less than 12M in cap space with Bouchard and 3 more forwards still needed.

They probably should do that anyway, but making room enough for a Hofer offer the Blues couldn’t just match will be difficult without cap dumps.

Even if the Blues match it’s not ideal for either side. I’m sure Hofer is getting sick of second fiddle at this point. I’m sure he wants an opportunity as much or more than the money.

Sick of second fiddle? He’s 24 and has been competent but not exactly dominant. There are only 2 goalies younger than him who had more games played last year: Dustin Wolf and Spencer Knight.

He will be 25 and few months at the beginning of the season. What’s the plan in his head? Binnington getting all the big games for a few more years? It’s not about being dominant … binnington hasn’t been dominant really either. It’s about opportunity. That’s the way they think. Everyone wants it. When other teams offer that … it’s hard to turn down/not want.

Not saying it will happen in this case, but it’s not uncommon when you have a younger goaltender with promise being blocked a bit

[britishblue]

Very few teams would sign Hofer to be their starter, especially those with cup aspirations.

Husso is a very good example of why you dont do it.

Hofer will get a 2 year deal in the 2.5-3m per year range.

[TBone]

Oiler honks are still salty over losing Broberg and Holloway.

https://x.com/OilersNation/status/1935517276507439607

[TheJackBurton]

Very few teams would sign Hofer to be their starter, especially those with cup aspirations.

Husso is a very good example of why you dont do it.

Hofer will get a 2 year deal in the 2.5-3m per year range.

One team that reasonably could are the Utah Mammoth.

They just re-signed Vejmelka to a 5 year deal, so that makes it less likely, but Bill Armstrong did draft Hofer and evidently covets him, so who really knows.

[Frank Underwood]

Could I see Edmonton giving him an offer sheet? Sure, why not. But they don’t have a lot of money to work with and unless they get him signed, this could be McDavid’s last year in Edmonton before he can walk away. With so much at risk, do they want to bank on an unproven, young goalie to lead them to the Cup? I like Hofer and definitely hope the Blues get him signed, but I don’t think that is the move the Oilers need to make at this point. But they have bungled the goalie thing for the last decade, so why not keep it going!

[TheJackBurton]

Could I see Edmonton giving him an offer sheet? Sure, why not. But they don’t have a lot of money to work with and unless they get him signed, this could be McDavid’s last year in Edmonton before he can walk away. With so much at risk, do they want to bank on an unproven, young goalie to lead them to the Cup? I like Hofer and definitely hope the Blues get him signed, but I don’t think that is the move the Oilers need to make at this point. But they have bungled the goalie thing for the last decade, so why not keep it going!

The problem would be if they sign Hofer, they can't sign Bouchard without making a move somewhere else.

As badly as they need goaler help, they can't afford to lose Bouchard as their defense is even worse than their goaltending.

Yes, yes I know the stats would tell you they are far better than we give them credit for, but most of their numbers come from teams having to play so defensively when McDavid and Drai are on the ice that it severely diminishes their offensive output.

[dhsux]

I originally asked for odds on an offer sheet coming. I'm thinking it's 20%, mainly because I believe they will close a deal with Joel before July 1.

No extension by then, everything changes.

Any one else have an inclination?

What are the odds Hofer gets offered under the present set of circumstances?

[rbirules]

Could I see Edmonton giving him an offer sheet? Sure, why not. But they don’t have a lot of money to work with and unless they get him signed, this could be McDavid’s last year in Edmonton before he can walk away. With so much at risk, do they want to bank on an unproven, young goalie to lead them to the Cup? I like Hofer and definitely hope the Blues get him signed, but I don’t think that is the move the Oilers need to make at this point. But they have bungled the goalie thing for the last decade, so why not keep it going!

The problem would be if they sign Hofer, they can't sign Bouchard without making a move somewhere else.

As badly as they need goaler help, they can't afford to lose Bouchard as their defense is even worse than their goaltending.

Yes, yes I know the stats would tell you they are far better than we give them credit for, but most of their numbers come from teams having to play so defensively when McDavid and Drai are on the ice that it severely diminishes their offensive output.

The only thing funnier (from a schadenfreude perspective) than getting Broberg and Holloway and them breaking out for us, is the Oilers offer sheeting Hofer, us taking their 2nd round pick, only for them to either lose Bouchard because they can't sign him or having to make some really bad moves to rid themselves of other contracts (I honestly don't even know how this is possible), which erodes their roster further and McDavid wants out and their 2nd round pick turns out to be a good one as a result.

[rbirules]

I originally asked for odds on an offer sheet coming. I'm thinking it's 20%, mainly because I believe they will close a deal with Joel before July 1.

No extension by then, everything changes.

Any one else have an inclination?

What are the odds Hofer gets offered under the present set of circumstances?

I actually think if Hofer makes it to the FA period without signing an extension, the odds are pretty high he gets an offer sheet. And if he gets to FA without an offer it means he hasn't agreed to the Blues offer which means he might entertain an offer sheet.

Given the suppressed return goalies usually get in a trade (maybe a late 1st) the offer sheet compensation system is set up really well for a team to sign a goalie at the 2nd round level (up to $4.68M). That's high enough that it's a little uncomfortable to pay a back up that much but the return is not good enough that you easily let them walk IF it's a team projected to have a late 2nd round pick (Oilers). IF it's a team projected to have a high second round pick then I think that's a little easier to accept, IF you are confident in Ellis or signing a veteran backup (could probably get Allen for a million or so less than top of the 2nd round offer sheet range). I don't hate this route, though I'd rather trade Hofer in a package for something we can specifically use now instead of a 2nd round pick in 2026 if we're going to not have him on the roster next season.

[STL fan in MN]

Hofer is an offer sheet risk but I don’t see it coming from the Oilers. As much as they’d like to have revenge and need a goalie, they don’t have the cap space to be able to pull ot off and don’t even have their 2nd rd pick. While they could try to get their 2nd back from NJ, just like the Blues got theirs back from PIT a year ago, I just don’t see an offer sheet from EDM as likely.

[rbirules]

Hofer is an offer sheet risk but I don’t see it coming from the Oilers. As much as they’d like to have revenge and need a goalie, they don’t have the cap space to be able to pull ot off and don’t even have their 2nd rd pick. While they could try to get their 2nd back from NJ, just like the Blues got theirs back from PIT a year ago, I just don’t see an offer sheet from EDM as likely.

The Oilers have their 2026 2nd round pick, which is the one that would be used for offer sheets. They traded the Blues 2nd round pick in 2025 (from the Broberg offer sheet) as part of a three team deal to obtain Frederic at the deadline.

Rest of your point stands though. If a team is going to offer sheet a goalie that isn't proven as a starter they either need to be desperate in the short term, and/or long term, but they probably need to be able to easily absorb the cap hit of slightly overpaying, which the Oilers cannot do. A team with tons of cap space (Sharks, Ducks, etc.) can afford to slightly overpay Hofer for a couple of years if they think they are getting a goalie of the future. A team like the Oilers needs a goalie upgrade right now, and frankly they can't afford to overpay, they currently can't even afford to keep their own RFA in Bouchard.

[STL fan in MN]

Hofer is an offer sheet risk but I don’t see it coming from the Oilers. As much as they’d like to have revenge and need a goalie, they don’t have the cap space to be able to pull ot off and don’t even have their 2nd rd pick. While they could try to get their 2nd back from NJ, just like the Blues got theirs back from PIT a year ago, I just don’t see an offer sheet from EDM as likely.

The Oilers have their 2026 2nd round pick, which is the one that would be used for offer sheets. They traded the Blues 2nd round pick in 2025 (from the Broberg offer sheet) as part of a three team deal to obtain Frederic at the deadline.

Rest of your point stands though. If a team is going to offer sheet a goalie that isn't proven as a starter they either need to be desperate in the short term, and/or long term, but they probably need to be able to easily absorb the cap hit of slightly overpaying, which the Oilers cannot do. A team with tons of cap space (Sharks, Ducks, etc.) can afford to slightly overpay Hofer for a couple of years if they think they are getting a goalie of the future. A team like the Oilers needs a goalie upgrade right now, and frankly they can't afford to overpay, they currently can't even afford to keep their own RFA in Bouchard.

You’re right. Probably shouldn’t post before I’ve had my morning coffee haha.

But yes, from a cap perspective, it would still seem really far fetched for Edmonton to pull it off. With Bouchard needing a new contract and McDavid eligible for another one on July 1, they have their hands full already.

[dr0zombie]

Hofer is an offer sheet risk but I don’t see it coming from the Oilers. As much as they’d like to have revenge and need a goalie, they don’t have the cap space to be able to pull ot off and don’t even have their 2nd rd pick. While they could try to get their 2nd back from NJ, just like the Blues got theirs back from PIT a year ago, I just don’t see an offer sheet from EDM as likely.

The Oilers have their 2026 2nd round pick, which is the one that would be used for offer sheets. They traded the Blues 2nd round pick in 2025 (from the Broberg offer sheet) as part of a three team deal to obtain Frederic at the deadline.

Rest of your point stands though. If a team is going to offer sheet a goalie that isn't proven as a starter they either need to be desperate in the short term, and/or long term, but they probably need to be able to easily absorb the cap hit of slightly overpaying, which the Oilers cannot do. A team with tons of cap space (Sharks, Ducks, etc.) can afford to slightly overpay Hofer for a couple of years if they think they are getting a goalie of the future. A team like the Oilers needs a goalie upgrade right now, and frankly they can't afford to overpay, they currently can't even afford to keep their own RFA in Bouchard.

Having the Oil offer sheet Hofer would be fun in a way. And I feel it would make the Oilers fans really hate the Blues.

We can speculate they would offer Hofer under $4,680,076, lets call it $4.4 million. I don't see Bouchard taking only the $7.7 million left, and they need some forwards. They would have to pay to trade Kane to get back enough to sign Bouchard. At that point they are even more of a two line team than they are now.

They offer sheet Hofer, have zero room to fix their roster, Hofer needs a year to get his rhythm under the questionable Edmonton defense, by the time he is ready McDavid has gotten fed up and moves on.

All of this is fun speculation. The reality is not many teams have the need to offer sheet Hofer, and cap space, and the need to take on the risk of paying that and having a Spencer Knight. I can't actually think of one. Maybe San Jose, but they just scored a deal on a goalie prospect from Nashville who should be really showing his skills this year. So.......

[TheJackBurton]

Could I see Edmonton giving him an offer sheet? Sure, why not. But they don’t have a lot of money to work with and unless they get him signed, this could be McDavid’s last year in Edmonton before he can walk away. With so much at risk, do they want to bank on an unproven, young goalie to lead them to the Cup? I like Hofer and definitely hope the Blues get him signed, but I don’t think that is the move the Oilers need to make at this point. But they have bungled the goalie thing for the last decade, so why not keep it going!

The problem would be if they sign Hofer, they can't sign Bouchard without making a move somewhere else.

As badly as they need goaler help, they can't afford to lose Bouchard as their defense is even worse than their goaltending.

Yes, yes I know the stats would tell you they are far better than we give them credit for, but most of their numbers come from teams having to play so defensively when McDavid and Drai are on the ice that it severely diminishes their offensive output.

The only thing funnier (from a schadenfreude perspective) than getting Broberg and Holloway and them breaking out for us, is the Oilers offer sheeting Hofer, us taking their 2nd round pick, only for them to either lose Bouchard because they can't sign him or having to make some really bad moves to rid themselves of other contracts (I honestly don't even know how this is possible), which erodes their roster further and McDavid wants out and their 2nd round pick turns out to be a good one as a result.

Yeah, I mean basically.

Could you imagine the team morale if you lose Bouchard for someone who is a backup currently?

Especially after the off season you had last year?

Man, that would just be a kick in the nuts.

Also, something to keep in mind, we heard the rumors, but Frederic isn't under contract currently so the cap that is showing is without him on it.

If he should sign it all of a sudden the Oil are down to essentially 8 million so they already have to get rid of someone to be cap compliant by the beginning of the year, if they extend Bouchard, and they'll still need 2 more players after that.

Oh and lastly, if they were to sign Hofer to the max amount for the second round pick, 4.68 million, he would be making more than Skinner and Pickard combined. They are currently making 3.6

[rbirules]

Hofer is an offer sheet risk but I don’t see it coming from the Oilers. As much as they’d like to have revenge and need a goalie, they don’t have the cap space to be able to pull ot off and don’t even have their 2nd rd pick. While they could try to get their 2nd back from NJ, just like the Blues got theirs back from PIT a year ago, I just don’t see an offer sheet from EDM as likely.

The Oilers have their 2026 2nd round pick, which is the one that would be used for offer sheets. They traded the Blues 2nd round pick in 2025 (from the Broberg offer sheet) as part of a three team deal to obtain Frederic at the deadline.

Rest of your point stands though. If a team is going to offer sheet a goalie that isn't proven as a starter they either need to be desperate in the short term, and/or long term, but they probably need to be able to easily absorb the cap hit of slightly overpaying, which the Oilers cannot do. A team with tons of cap space (Sharks, Ducks, etc.) can afford to slightly overpay Hofer for a couple of years if they think they are getting a goalie of the future. A team like the Oilers needs a goalie upgrade right now, and frankly they can't afford to overpay, they currently can't even afford to keep their own RFA in Bouchard.

Having the Oil offer sheet Hofer would be fun in a way. And I feel it would make the Oilers fans really hate the Blues.

We can speculate they would offer Hofer under $4,680,076, lets call it $4.4 million. I don't see Bouchard taking only the $7.7 million left, and they need some forwards. They would have to pay to trade Kane to get back enough to sign Bouchard. At that point they are even more of a two line team than they are now.

They offer sheet Hofer, have zero room to fix their roster, Hofer needs a year to get his rhythm under the questionable Edmonton defense, by the time he is ready McDavid has gotten fed up and moves on.

All of this is fun speculation. The reality is not many teams have the need to offer sheet Hofer, and cap space, and the need to take on the risk of paying that and having a Spencer Knight. I can't actually think of one. Maybe San Jose, but they just scored a deal on a goalie prospect from Nashville who should be really showing his skills this year. So.......

Agree completely on the Oilers being unlikely to pull it off without crippling their roster . . . which why would Hofer want to sign there in that situation, unless he really wants to start?

Yeah, I think the system is set up well for a team to offer sheet a goalie, but I haven't looked to see if there are actually any teams positioned to do so that actually have that need.