After 1st half watching Maysn Winn--Job isn't secure. I wouldn't sign him to LT extension either

[Bully4you]

Cards should absolutely draft one of
Aiva Arquette, Eli Willits or Billy Carlson.
Winn I don't think is the LT solution.
Has a great arm, but other than that the
D isn't really elite and the hitting isn't either.
The big three of Walker, Gorman and Winn
are turning out to be duds.
Burleson and Donovan are the keepers here.
I expect JJ to step up and so, we need one more.
Burleson, Donovan, JJ and Billy Carlson be a nice 4some.
Not giving up on Winn, but just not superb by any means.

[Honky Tonk Man]

Cards should absolutely draft one of
Aiva Arquette, Eli Willits or Billy Carlson.
Winn I don't think is the LT solution.
Has a great arm, but other than that the
D isn't really elite and the hitting isn't either.
The big three of Walker, Gorman and Winn
are turning out to be duds.
Burleson and Donovan are the keepers here.
I expect JJ to step up and so, we need one more.
Burleson, Donovan, JJ and Billy Carlson be a nice 4some.
Not giving up on Winn, but just not superb by any means.

agree no need to extend Winn, Walker and Gorman are stiffs

[mattmitchl44]

Winn is still on pace to be a 4 fWAR player this season after being a 3.6 fWAR player last year. He's a young, above average defensive SS who has been a ML average (wRC+ 100) hitter. That should give him a solid floor going forward, with a chance to be even better as his hitting hopefully improves into his prime.

In regards to a long term extension, it all depends on the price. If you wanted to sign him through age 30, it would be a 7 year deal (2026-2032). But there's a big difference between whether he would sign for 7 yrs./$50 million, 7 yrs./$75 million, 7 yrs./$100 million, etc. At some price point, the team should certainly sign him long term, at some other price point they certainly should not, and there is likely a lot of grey area between those two.

[Bully4you]

Winn is still on pace to be a 4 fWAR player this season after being a 3.6 fWAR player last year. He's a young, above average defensive SS who has been a ML average (wRC+ 100) hitter. That should give him a solid floor going forward, with a chance to be even better as his hitting hopefully improves into his prime.

In regards to a long term extension, it all depends on the price. If you wanted to sign him through age 30, it would be a 7 year deal (2026-2032). But there's a big difference between whether he would sign for 7 yrs./$50 million, 7 yrs./$75 million, 7 yrs./$100 million, etc. At some price point, the team should certainly sign him long term, at some other price point they certainly should not, and there is likely a lot of grey area between those two.

The traits I like about Winn are he
seems to actually care and he's very
athletic.
So, he could become a special player.
However, it certainly shouldn't stop management
from drafting a SS in this year's draft.
I disagree with signing Winn this year LT.
Maybe wait a year and see what that brings.
We do have half a season left.
Maybe he will improve.
He's underperforming my expectations right now.
The D is not as good as I expected.
I expected the hitting to be subpar.

[mattmitchl44]

Winn is still on pace to be a 4 fWAR player this season after being a 3.6 fWAR player last year. He's a young, above average defensive SS who has been a ML average (wRC+ 100) hitter. That should give him a solid floor going forward, with a chance to be even better as his hitting hopefully improves into his prime.

In regards to a long term extension, it all depends on the price. If you wanted to sign him through age 30, it would be a 7 year deal (2026-2032). But there's a big difference between whether he would sign for 7 yrs./$50 million, 7 yrs./$75 million, 7 yrs./$100 million, etc. At some price point, the team should certainly sign him long term, at some other price point they certainly should not, and there is likely a lot of grey area between those two.

The traits I like about Winn are he
seems to actually care and he's very
athletic.
So, he could become a special player.
However, it certainly shouldn't stop management
from drafting a SS in this year's draft.
I disagree with signing Winn this year LT.
Maybe wait a year and see what that brings.
We do have half a season left.
Maybe he will improve.
He's underperforming my expectations right now.
The D is not as good as I expected.
I expected the hitting to be subpar.

The bottom line is always the same - if you wait until you think you are "sure" you should sign him to a long term extension, that long term extension is going to be a lot more expensive. And no long term extension for any player is really a "sure thing" anyway, given the possibility of injury, etc.

Being aggressive at signing young players early and as cheaply as possible entails slightly more risk but brings the possibility of a lot more reward for the team. That is just the way the economics of baseball player salaries is structured.

[Wattage]

Cards should absolutely draft one of
Aiva Arquette, Eli Willits or Billy Carlson.
Winn I don't think is the LT solution.
Has a great arm, but other than that the
D isn't really elite and the hitting isn't either.
The big three of Walker, Gorman and Winn
are turning out to be duds.
Burleson and Donovan are the keepers here.
I expect JJ to step up and so, we need one more.
Burleson, Donovan, JJ and Billy Carlson be a nice 4some.
Not giving up on Winn, but just not superb by any means.

I dont necessarily disagree on extending winn, but calling him a dud is asinine.

[Wattage]

Winn is still on pace to be a 4 fWAR player this season after being a 3.6 fWAR player last year. He's a young, above average defensive SS who has been a ML average (wRC+ 100) hitter. That should give him a solid floor going forward, with a chance to be even better as his hitting hopefully improves into his prime.

In regards to a long term extension, it all depends on the price. If you wanted to sign him through age 30, it would be a 7 year deal (2026-2032). But there's a big difference between whether he would sign for 7 yrs./$50 million, 7 yrs./$75 million, 7 yrs./$100 million, etc. At some price point, the team should certainly sign him long term, at some other price point they certainly should not, and there is likely a lot of grey area between those two.

The traits I like about Winn are he
seems to actually care and he's very
athletic.
So, he could become a special player.
However, it certainly shouldn't stop management
from drafting a SS in this year's draft.
I disagree with signing Winn this year LT.
Maybe wait a year and see what that brings.
We do have half a season left.
Maybe he will improve.
He's underperforming my expectations right now.
The D is not as good as I expected.
I expected the hitting to be subpar.

Winn has been above averahe defensively.

Winns hitting has been average this season and above average last season- and not just for ss but for all kf mlv.

The hitting has not been subpar.

People just neednto look at the league as a whole instead of remembering the stats players put up 10 years ago as a baseline


Winn isnt an allstar. But hes been a viable starter. Above average id even say.

[Bully4you]

Winn is still on pace to be a 4 fWAR player this season after being a 3.6 fWAR player last year. He's a young, above average defensive SS who has been a ML average (wRC+ 100) hitter. That should give him a solid floor going forward, with a chance to be even better as his hitting hopefully improves into his prime.

In regards to a long term extension, it all depends on the price. If you wanted to sign him through age 30, it would be a 7 year deal (2026-2032). But there's a big difference between whether he would sign for 7 yrs./$50 million, 7 yrs./$75 million, 7 yrs./$100 million, etc. At some price point, the team should certainly sign him long term, at some other price point they certainly should not, and there is likely a lot of grey area between those two.

The traits I like about Winn are he
seems to actually care and he's very
athletic.
So, he could become a special player.
However, it certainly shouldn't stop management
from drafting a SS in this year's draft.
I disagree with signing Winn this year LT.
Maybe wait a year and see what that brings.
We do have half a season left.
Maybe he will improve.
He's underperforming my expectations right now.
The D is not as good as I expected.
I expected the hitting to be subpar.

The bottom line is always the same - if you wait until you think you are "sure" you should sign him to a long term extension, that long term extension is going to be a lot more expensive. And no long term extension for any player is really a "sure thing" anyway, given the possibility of injury, etc.

Being aggressive at signing young players early and as cheaply as possible entails slightly more risk but brings the possibility of a lot more reward for the team. That is just the way the economics of baseball player salaries is structured.

I get it.
It's a gamble either way.
I'm trying to remember all those that
they signed to LT extensions and whether
it worked out for the team.
I remember Carlos Martinez didn't.
I just don't recall when it worked out for
them and when it did not.
Winn may very well become a great player,
but I think he's kind of underperformed this year.
Sophomore slump?
Could be and he has a lot of athleticism too.
I guess for the right price, like you said.

[Bully4you]

Winn is still on pace to be a 4 fWAR player this season after being a 3.6 fWAR player last year. He's a young, above average defensive SS who has been a ML average (wRC+ 100) hitter. That should give him a solid floor going forward, with a chance to be even better as his hitting hopefully improves into his prime.

In regards to a long term extension, it all depends on the price. If you wanted to sign him through age 30, it would be a 7 year deal (2026-2032). But there's a big difference between whether he would sign for 7 yrs./$50 million, 7 yrs./$75 million, 7 yrs./$100 million, etc. At some price point, the team should certainly sign him long term, at some other price point they certainly should not, and there is likely a lot of grey area between those two.

The traits I like about Winn are he
seems to actually care and he's very
athletic.
So, he could become a special player.
However, it certainly shouldn't stop management
from drafting a SS in this year's draft.
I disagree with signing Winn this year LT.
Maybe wait a year and see what that brings.
We do have half a season left.
Maybe he will improve.
He's underperforming my expectations right now.
The D is not as good as I expected.
I expected the hitting to be subpar.

Winn has been above averahe defensively.

Winns hitting has been average this season and above average last season- and not just for ss but for all kf mlv.

The hitting has not been subpar.

People just neednto look at the league as a whole instead of remembering the stats players put up 10 years ago as a baseline


Winn isnt an allstar. But hes been a viable starter. Above average id even say.

That's fair.
I think I had higher expectations for this kid.
Your argument is fair.
I probably am just venting, because I expected much more.
He's so athletic and he seems to really care.
Has great traits.
I am changing my opinion.
You and Matt changed my opinion.

[mattmitchl44]

People just need to look at the league as a whole instead of remembering the stats players put up 10 years ago as a baseline

An important point.

In 2000, the ML avg. OPS was .782
In 2009, the ML avg. OPS was .751
In 2019, the ML avg. OPS was .758

And, for those seasons, pitchers were still batting the NL!

In 2024, the ML avg. OPS was .711
In 2025, so far, the ML avg. OPS is .714

[Bully4you]

People just need to look at the league as a whole instead of remembering the stats players put up 10 years ago as a baseline

An important point.

In 2000, the ML avg. OPS was .782
In 2009, the ML avg. OPS was .751
In 2019, the ML avg. OPS was .758

And, for those seasons, pitchers were still batting the NL!

In 2024, the ML avg. OPS was .711
In 2025, so far, the ML avg. OPS is .714

Yes, other than a select few hitting is awful.
You two are correct.

[mattmitchl44]

I get it.
It's a gamble either way.
I'm trying to remember all those that
they signed to LT extensions and whether
it worked out for the team.
I remember Carlos Martinez didn't.
I just don't recall when it worked out for
them and when it did not.

It depends on what your expectations are for it to "work out" for the team.

In reality, if you are extending them at the right price point, almost no deal for a young player works out truly badly for the team.

People like to point to DeJong's deal as "bad", but even his deal was so relatively cheap (only ~$4 million AAV, IIRC) that just his 2018-2021 seasons made it not a "bad" deal for the Cardinals. The Cardinals obviously didn't get tremendous value out of it, but by doing the deal as early and as cheaply as they did, they at least avoided the possibility of giving him a much more expensive long term deal after the 2018 or 2019 seasons.

[Absolut]

Cards should absolutely draft one of
Aiva Arquette, Eli Willits or Billy Carlson.
Winn I don't think is the LT solution.
Has a great arm, but other than that the
D isn't really elite and the hitting isn't either.
The big three of Walker, Gorman and Winn
are turning out to be duds.
Burleson and Donovan are the keepers here.
I expect JJ to step up and so, we need one more.
Burleson, Donovan, JJ and Billy Carlson be a nice 4some.
Not giving up on Winn, but just not superb by any means.

agree no need to extend Winn, Walker and Gorman are stiffs

Can you clarify if your stiff comment applies to Winn?

[Honky Tonk Man]

Cards should absolutely draft one of
Aiva Arquette, Eli Willits or Billy Carlson.
Winn I don't think is the LT solution.
Has a great arm, but other than that the
D isn't really elite and the hitting isn't either.
The big three of Walker, Gorman and Winn
are turning out to be duds.
Burleson and Donovan are the keepers here.
I expect JJ to step up and so, we need one more.
Burleson, Donovan, JJ and Billy Carlson be a nice 4some.
Not giving up on Winn, but just not superb by any means.

agree no need to extend Winn, Walker and Gorman are stiffs

Can you clarify if your stiff comment applies to Winn?

no not Winn he is the best SS the birds have had since Renteria, just no need to extend him. Walker and Gorman are the stiffs

[Absolut]

Cards should absolutely draft one of
Aiva Arquette, Eli Willits or Billy Carlson.
Winn I don't think is the LT solution.
Has a great arm, but other than that the
D isn't really elite and the hitting isn't either.
The big three of Walker, Gorman and Winn
are turning out to be duds.
Burleson and Donovan are the keepers here.
I expect JJ to step up and so, we need one more.
Burleson, Donovan, JJ and Billy Carlson be a nice 4some.
Not giving up on Winn, but just not superb by any means.

agree no need to extend Winn, Walker and Gorman are stiffs

Can you clarify if your stiff comment applies to Winn?

no not Winn he is the best SS the birds have had since Renteria, just no need to extend him. Walker and Gorman are the stiffs

Thanks. Was pretty sure that’s what you meant. This is a crazy thread. His job isnt secure. Good grief.

[Honky Tonk Man]

Cards should absolutely draft one of
Aiva Arquette, Eli Willits or Billy Carlson.
Winn I don't think is the LT solution.
Has a great arm, but other than that the
D isn't really elite and the hitting isn't either.
The big three of Walker, Gorman and Winn
are turning out to be duds.
Burleson and Donovan are the keepers here.
I expect JJ to step up and so, we need one more.
Burleson, Donovan, JJ and Billy Carlson be a nice 4some.
Not giving up on Winn, but just not superb by any means.

agree no need to extend Winn, Walker and Gorman are stiffs

Can you clarify if your stiff comment applies to Winn?

no not Winn he is the best SS the birds have had since Renteria, just no need to extend him. Walker and Gorman are the stiffs

Thanks. Was pretty sure that’s what you meant. This is a crazy thread. His job isnt secure. Good grief.

I see how my post could have been misleading glad to clarify thanks