Draft questions

[Younghopp1991]

There was a player in the draft that some were comparing to holloways motor if anyone can help with his name

[Bluesfan1978]

Justin Carbonneau

[STL fan in MN]

I’d be surprised if Smith lasted to 19. He’s got size and good two-way ability.

I’d say there’s a less than 50% chance Bear is there at 19 but still a solid chance. I think he’s underrated. Perhaps teams will be cautious with him and he’ll drop because of his a cut to his Achilles that ended his season a bit early. But he’s already back skating so it doesn’t concern me at all. Would love Bear at 19.

Potter plays C at ASU but will he be able to play C in the NHL? I doubt it.

Carbonneau is a RW and has hardly any of the same strengths and weaknesses as Potter so confused what your “similar reasons” are.

I thought Smith was closer to top-10. Same with Bear, but yeah that laceration could make him drop. I wonder about him (and Cootes to a degree) being a high-motor, high-effort player - does he have another level come playoff time? Is much of his success because of that effort/IQ rather than skill?

Potter seems like a speed burning offensive type, and Carbonneau seems like an only offense type - I actually thought Carbonneau was smaller than he is, but I used "similar" rather than "same" because I realize they're not the same player. What I don't like about Carbonneau is that he's a one-man show. Blues could probably use a guy who is 1000% shoot first/only shoot/never pass though (and please correct me if I'm wrong about him, I have only seen scouting reports).

Ivan Ryabkin will be the BPA if he's still on the board. Hopefully the Blues have the balls to pick him.

But Hensler would be a solid pick. Wisconsin's struggles in the first half hurt his draft stock significantly but ,from what I've heard, he played exceptionally well in the second half. Good size, mobil but offensive upside is in question.

This is my pick - I think Ryabkin is just the player we need in our prospect pool.

Would also be just fine with Hensler at 19, though I thought he would go before 19.

Any chance Mrtka falls that far?

I expect Smith to go on the 10-15 range. Near zero chance Mrtka lasts to 19.

Rybakin would be a pretty big risk. He has some skill but lots of warts too. That said, I didn’t watch him as much as a lot of the others so I’ll admit my evaluation of his game isn’t as deep as it is for others. I didn’t really consider him an option and USHL games aren’t the easiest to find sometimes. But he apparently was good in the playoffs. In the end, I’d be disappointed if he ends up the pick as there will almost certainly be better options available.

[zamadoo]

I expect Smith to go on the 10-15 range. Near zero chance Mrtka lasts to 19.

Rybakin would be a pretty big risk. He has some skill but lots of warts too. That said, I didn’t watch him as much as a lot of the others so I’ll admit my evaluation of his game isn’t as deep as it is for others. I didn’t really consider him an option and USHL games aren’t the easiest to find sometimes. But he apparently was good in the playoffs. In the end, I’d be disappointed if he ends up the pick as there will almost certainly be better options available.

I understand your sentiment. Pretty much everything I know comes from this scouting report: https://youtu.be/63F0A-j2CzQ?si=cMbEnujop0jgMs-A

He mentions that Ivan wasn't in good shape, which I could see as a wart, though I wonder if moving continents and switching teams/leagues had anything to do with that. Or is it an attitude issue? I don't know that information, but he seems to stick up for teammates and is a pest out there. Could be a Marchand type for us. Slick mits in tight space, great vision and passing, good shot, goes to the dirty areas. This scout said (paraphrasing) "I've almost become perverse when it comes to watching him target players for hits"

Also found this shift-by-shift video from an April 22 playoff game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ulsoM7d ... pectShifts

What I see watching this game reflects what the scout said in the other video: seems like he's holding back to preserve energy. His skating reminds me of Dvorsky or even Tarasenko, but he seems to read plays very well and end up in the right place at the right time. Particularly in the 3rd period, he's like a different player and you start to see more of his game. Of note is his positioning, checking, and defense. He seems to break up a lot of plays, and in the 3rd makes some big hits that are just a part of the play, not because he's chasing. Worth noting that he was the only player on this team (who won the Championship) that ended up over a PPG, and his last 10 games (playoffs) he had 6g, 7a, for 13pts with a +10.

Compare that playoff video to this video Jan 3, where he plays center and wins a few draws, and you can see how he might be worn down compared to earlier in the season: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7EI2R3j ... pectShifts

I just think if he settles in on one team next year and gets in shape, he could really progress. Maybe he's more of a late-1st/2nd rounder than 19OA, but to me he's a guy to take a chance on to add a unique skillset to the prospect pool.

[STL fan in MN]

I expect Smith to go on the 10-15 range. Near zero chance Mrtka lasts to 19.

Rybakin would be a pretty big risk. He has some skill but lots of warts too. That said, I didn’t watch him as much as a lot of the others so I’ll admit my evaluation of his game isn’t as deep as it is for others. I didn’t really consider him an option and USHL games aren’t the easiest to find sometimes. But he apparently was good in the playoffs. In the end, I’d be disappointed if he ends up the pick as there will almost certainly be better options available.

I understand your sentiment. Pretty much everything I know comes from this scouting report: https://youtu.be/63F0A-j2CzQ?si=cMbEnujop0jgMs-A

He mentions that Ivan wasn't in good shape, which I could see as a wart, though I wonder if moving continents and switching teams/leagues had anything to do with that. Or is it an attitude issue? I don't know that information, but he seems to stick up for teammates and is a pest out there. Could be a Marchand type for us. Slick mits in tight space, great vision and passing, good shot, goes to the dirty areas. This scout said (paraphrasing) "I've almost become perverse when it comes to watching him target players for hits"

Also found this shift-by-shift video from an April 22 playoff game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ulsoM7d ... pectShifts

What I see watching this game reflects what the scout said in the other video: seems like he's holding back to preserve energy. His skating reminds me of Dvorsky or even Tarasenko, but he seems to read plays very well and end up in the right place at the right time. Particularly in the 3rd period, he's like a different player and you start to see more of his game. Of note is his positioning, checking, and defense. He seems to break up a lot of plays, and in the 3rd makes some big hits that are just a part of the play, not because he's chasing. Worth noting that he was the only player on this team (who won the Championship) that ended up over a PPG, and his last 10 games (playoffs) he had 6g, 7a, for 13pts with a +10.

Compare that playoff video to this video Jan 3, where he plays center and wins a few draws, and you can see how he might be worn down compared to earlier in the season: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7EI2R3j ... pectShifts

I just think if he settles in on one team next year and gets in shape, he could really progress. Maybe he's more of a late-1st/2nd rounder than 19OA, but to me he's a guy to take a chance on to add a unique skillset to the prospect pool.

The problem with Rybakin is he’s incredibly inconsistent. You just don’t know what you’re going to get. Very much a boom or bust pick but he’s a bigger bust risk IMO. He’s talented but the effort level just isn’t there most nights. Is someone able to light a fire under his butt and get him going? That’s the big question on him. Here’s another write up on him from Scott Wheeler. He has him higher than most but still has him at 27.

Ryabkin is one of the most mercurial prospects in this draft and one of its toughest to slot. There are a lot of teams that will just steer clear, and he'll be a Day 2 pick. Ryabkin entered his draft year with some excitement after a historic season in the MHL a year ago, had a three-assist, 22-minute first game of the year in the MHL this year and then was quickly promoted to the KHL. But that excitement cooled just as quickly when he couldn’t find the back of the net, his discipline on the puck (and in the penalty box) wavered and he was eventually a healthy scratch at the MHL level, which led to a move to Muskegon in the USHL only to get suspended for slew footing before he’d barely got started. Even before this year, there was talk of him being difficult to coach and work with coming out of Russia, too. He also interviewed poorly with NHL teams and has received crticism for his fitness and weight. And yet, he broke Matvei Michkov’s U17 scoring record in the MHL last year and put up comparable numbers to Ivan Demidov in his draft-minus-two season while being four and a half months younger than Demidov was. He was also very productive for Muskegon, finding the back of the net more and rebuilding his confidence while continuing to come and go in games and in discipline, though he finished strong and he showed that you can win with him with the USHL champion Lumberjacks, registering 16 points and a plus-nine rating in 14 playoff games. At year’s end, his final USHL totals were 26 goals, 46 points, a plus-16 rating, and 100 penalty minutes in 41 combined regular season and playoff games. I don't know where I'd feel comfortable taking him but I've slotted him here on talent. I'd treat drafting him differently than I would other kids and would want to do my due diligence in interviews before I made a decision. He also needs to decide where he wants to play next year.

Ryabkin’s got a quick release. I like his instincts off the puck offensively to get open and jump into gaps in coverage. He’s got soft hands and makes a lot of plays off his backhand. He sees the ice well when there are plays to be made and has the finesse and touch to execute difficult passes. I like him in give-and-go plays and one-on-one inside the offensive zone. On the puck, he’s got a legit individual skill level. He’s got some real craft and creativity to his game. But his decision-making on the ice can leave a lot to be desired and he’s got some work to do to get into better shape (he’s actually a solid skater, which is why he could stand to benefit from working on his fitness). He showed last year a willingness to pursue and track pucks and looked like a player who could potentially stick at center up levels (though some are now questioning that). His work rate wavers, though, and there were some rumblings about him not being the easiest kid to play with/coach even before this season. I also find he can get ahead of the play at times (he can engage and finish his checks but needs to play the right way more consistently if he wants to be trusted enough to go out there and make his skill plays). It’s hard to find centers with his skill and offensive instincts/intuition in the second round, though, for example, and he remains a talent. But he’s now going to have to continue to prove himself.

I thought about ranking him closer to the back of this tier in the late 30s but this is where the talent divide started to show itself.

[zamadoo]

The problem with Rybakin is he’s incredibly inconsistent. You just don’t know what you’re going to get. Very much a boom or bust pick but he’s a bigger bust risk IMO. He’s talented but the effort level just isn’t there most nights. Is someone able to light a fire under his butt and get him going? That’s the big question on him. Here’s another write up on him from Scott Wheeler. He has him higher than most but still has him at 27.

Ryabkin is one of the most mercurial prospects in this draft and one of its toughest to slot. There are a lot of teams that will just steer clear, and he'll be a Day 2 pick. Ryabkin entered his draft year with some excitement after a historic season in the MHL a year ago, had a three-assist, 22-minute first game of the year in the MHL this year and then was quickly promoted to the KHL. But that excitement cooled just as quickly when he couldn’t find the back of the net, his discipline on the puck (and in the penalty box) wavered and he was eventually a healthy scratch at the MHL level, which led to a move to Muskegon in the USHL only to get suspended for slew footing before he’d barely got started. Even before this year, there was talk of him being difficult to coach and work with coming out of Russia, too. He also interviewed poorly with NHL teams and has received crticism for his fitness and weight. And yet, he broke Matvei Michkov’s U17 scoring record in the MHL last year and put up comparable numbers to Ivan Demidov in his draft-minus-two season while being four and a half months younger than Demidov was. He was also very productive for Muskegon, finding the back of the net more and rebuilding his confidence while continuing to come and go in games and in discipline, though he finished strong and he showed that you can win with him with the USHL champion Lumberjacks, registering 16 points and a plus-nine rating in 14 playoff games. At year’s end, his final USHL totals were 26 goals, 46 points, a plus-16 rating, and 100 penalty minutes in 41 combined regular season and playoff games. I don't know where I'd feel comfortable taking him but I've slotted him here on talent. I'd treat drafting him differently than I would other kids and would want to do my due diligence in interviews before I made a decision. He also needs to decide where he wants to play next year.

Ryabkin’s got a quick release. I like his instincts off the puck offensively to get open and jump into gaps in coverage. He’s got soft hands and makes a lot of plays off his backhand. He sees the ice well when there are plays to be made and has the finesse and touch to execute difficult passes. I like him in give-and-go plays and one-on-one inside the offensive zone. On the puck, he’s got a legit individual skill level. He’s got some real craft and creativity to his game. But his decision-making on the ice can leave a lot to be desired and he’s got some work to do to get into better shape (he’s actually a solid skater, which is why he could stand to benefit from working on his fitness). He showed last year a willingness to pursue and track pucks and looked like a player who could potentially stick at center up levels (though some are now questioning that). His work rate wavers, though, and there were some rumblings about him not being the easiest kid to play with/coach even before this season. I also find he can get ahead of the play at times (he can engage and finish his checks but needs to play the right way more consistently if he wants to be trusted enough to go out there and make his skill plays). It’s hard to find centers with his skill and offensive instincts/intuition in the second round, though, for example, and he remains a talent. But he’s now going to have to continue to prove himself.

I thought about ranking him closer to the back of this tier in the late 30s but this is where the talent divide started to show itself.

Thanks for sharing. This write up confirms a lot of what I thought about him. Actually I was going to write that he's a boom/bust type, which I do think the Blues are in a position to take at this point, but obviously they will know much more than I do.

[billybaseball]

Part of the reason I think the Blues should swing on Ryabkin is they have had 5 1st rd pick, 2 2nds and 6 3rd's in the last three drafts. They have drafted very well too and even some later round picks are exceeding expectations. But the big thing we lack is a dynamic game breaking scoring threat, especiallyat center. Ryabkin has the talent to be that player and I think the possibilities he provides outweighs the risk.

[kimzey59]

Blues could probably use a guy who is 1000% shoot first/only shoot/never pass though (and please correct me if I'm wrong about him, I have only seen scouting reports).

You're not entirely wrong about him.
He'll make the occasional pass off the rush, but he is primarily a shooter.

Having said that; I would disagree pretty strongly that we should target that play style.
Dvorsky is a shooter.
Snuggy is a shooter.
Bolduc is a shooter.
State Farm is a shooter.
Holloway and Kyrou are shooters(they play well off each other but they're both shooters).
Schenn is a shooter.

We're pretty loaded up on shooters. IMO we need passers that can actually set these guys up. There's only 1 Bobby Tommy, and he can't play with everyone(Stenberg and Pekarcik bring some playmaking ability, but not to the extent we need to really max out the production of the guys I listed).

IF Carbonneau is legitimately the BPA when we pick; sure, you take him. But if we go for a forward I'd be FAR more interested in somebody who's more of a passer(Reschny, Cootes, Kindel, Gastrin, Moore).

[zamadoo]

Blues could probably use a guy who is 1000% shoot first/only shoot/never pass though (and please correct me if I'm wrong about him, I have only seen scouting reports).

You're not entirely wrong about him.
He'll make the occasional pass off the rush, but he is primarily a shooter.

Having said that; I would disagree pretty strongly that we should target that play style.
Dvorsky is a shooter.
Snuggy is a shooter.
Bolduc is a shooter.
State Farm is a shooter.
Holloway and Kyrou are shooters(they play well off each other but they're both shooters).
Schenn is a shooter.

We're pretty loaded up on shooters. IMO we need passers that can actually set these guys up. There's only 1 Bobby Tommy, and he can't play with everyone(Stenberg and Pekarcik bring some playmaking ability, but not to the extent we need to really max out the production of the guys I listed).

IF Carbonneau is legitimately the BPA when we pick; sure, you take him. But if we go for a forward I'd be FAR more interested in somebody who's more of a passer(Reschny, Cootes, Kindel, Gastrin, Moore).

Actually, you make a good point. I'm a bit stuck in the past on this line of thinking. Buch-Thomas-Kyrou drove us nuts constantly deferring when in prime shooting range. I made a joke about Snuggerudd passing the puck in the playoffs saying we finally got a real shooter and they're gonna turn him into another passer

I would agree though on selecting someone like Reschny, Cootes, etc. That's a reason I like Ryabkin.

[dhsux]

The problem with Rybakin is he’s incredibly inconsistent. You just don’t know what you’re going to get. Very much a boom or bust pick but he’s a bigger bust risk IMO. He’s talented but the effort level just isn’t there most nights. Is someone able to light a fire under his butt and get him going? That’s the big question on him. Here’s another write up on him from Scott Wheeler. He has him higher than most but still has him at 27.

Ryabkin is one of the most mercurial prospects in this draft and one of its toughest to slot. There are a lot of teams that will just steer clear, and he'll be a Day 2 pick. Ryabkin entered his draft year with some excitement after a historic season in the MHL a year ago, had a three-assist, 22-minute first game of the year in the MHL this year and then was quickly promoted to the KHL. But that excitement cooled just as quickly when he couldn’t find the back of the net, his discipline on the puck (and in the penalty box) wavered and he was eventually a healthy scratch at the MHL level, which led to a move to Muskegon in the USHL only to get suspended for slew footing before he’d barely got started. Even before this year, there was talk of him being difficult to coach and work with coming out of Russia, too. He also interviewed poorly with NHL teams and has received crticism for his fitness and weight. And yet, he broke Matvei Michkov’s U17 scoring record in the MHL last year and put up comparable numbers to Ivan Demidov in his draft-minus-two season while being four and a half months younger than Demidov was. He was also very productive for Muskegon, finding the back of the net more and rebuilding his confidence while continuing to come and go in games and in discipline, though he finished strong and he showed that you can win with him with the USHL champion Lumberjacks, registering 16 points and a plus-nine rating in 14 playoff games. At year’s end, his final USHL totals were 26 goals, 46 points, a plus-16 rating, and 100 penalty minutes in 41 combined regular season and playoff games. I don't know where I'd feel comfortable taking him but I've slotted him here on talent. I'd treat drafting him differently than I would other kids and would want to do my due diligence in interviews before I made a decision. He also needs to decide where he wants to play next year.

Ryabkin’s got a quick release. I like his instincts off the puck offensively to get open and jump into gaps in coverage. He’s got soft hands and makes a lot of plays off his backhand. He sees the ice well when there are plays to be made and has the finesse and touch to execute difficult passes. I like him in give-and-go plays and one-on-one inside the offensive zone. On the puck, he’s got a legit individual skill level. He’s got some real craft and creativity to his game. But his decision-making on the ice can leave a lot to be desired and he’s got some work to do to get into better shape (he’s actually a solid skater, which is why he could stand to benefit from working on his fitness). He showed last year a willingness to pursue and track pucks and looked like a player who could potentially stick at center up levels (though some are now questioning that). His work rate wavers, though, and there were some rumblings about him not being the easiest kid to play with/coach even before this season. I also find he can get ahead of the play at times (he can engage and finish his checks but needs to play the right way more consistently if he wants to be trusted enough to go out there and make his skill plays). It’s hard to find centers with his skill and offensive instincts/intuition in the second round, though, for example, and he remains a talent. But he’s now going to have to continue to prove himself.

I thought about ranking him closer to the back of this tier in the late 30s but this is where the talent divide started to show itself.

Thanks for sharing. This write up confirms a lot of what I thought about him. Actually I was going to write that he's a boom/bust type, which I do think the Blues are in a position to take at this point, but obviously they will know much more than I do.

Curious why you think the Blues are in a position to do a boom/bust player with their first pick?

Particularly at D or C ?

I'm not thinking they are.

[zamadoo]

Curious why you think the Blues are in a position to do a boom/bust player with their first pick?

Particularly at D or C ?

I'm not thinking they are.

I don't think that about D - I would be ok with just taking a solid pick like Hensler as a need in the system.

At forward though, we're rolling with Neighbours, Snuggerudd, and Bolduc as top-9 1st rounders that have hit. Dvorsky appears to be a solid pick to add to that group. Stenberg is up there with them. These are quality players with skill and two-way play (for the most part).

The next tier of lower picks also seem like they will be solid - Stancl, Pekarcik, Kaskimaki, and maybe a couple others.

Then we have Holloway who is young. I realize we are short on centers in the system, but we do still have Dean (former 1st rounder) who I still have faith will reach his potential as a 3C. But, we basically have our 1-2 Cs covered with Thomas and Dvorsky. We have Schenn for 3 more seasons in the mid/bottom 6. Bottom 6 centers aren't a real concern that we need to draft.

So then if you take Ryabkin and he booms at either C or W, it helps cover if Dean doesn't make it or (dare I say it) if Dvorsky isn't the 2C we are hoping...and if all goes well we have a unique player who can play in a variety of roles and situations.

Like I said though, I'd be fine going D with someone like Hensler or Boumedienne. I just like Ryabkin as a prospect.

[dhsux]

Curious why you think the Blues are in a position to do a boom/bust player with their first pick?

Particularly at D or C ?

I'm not thinking they are.

I don't think that about D - I would be ok with just taking a solid pick like Hensler as a need in the system.

At forward though, we're rolling with Neighbours, Snuggerudd, and Bolduc as top-9 1st rounders that have hit. Dvorsky appears to be a solid pick to add to that group. Stenberg is up there with them. These are quality players with skill and two-way play (for the most part).

The next tier of lower picks also seem like they will be solid - Stancl, Pekarcik, Kaskimaki, and maybe a couple others.

Then we have Holloway who is young. I realize we are short on centers in the system, but we do still have Dean (former 1st rounder) who I still have faith will reach his potential as a 3C. But, we basically have our 1-2 Cs covered with Thomas and Dvorsky. We have Schenn for 3 more seasons in the mid/bottom 6. Bottom 6 centers aren't a real concern that we need to draft.

So then if you take Ryabkin and he booms at either C or W, it helps cover if Dean doesn't make it or (dare I say it) if Dvorsky isn't the 2C we are hoping...and if all goes well we have a unique player who can play in a variety of roles and situations.

Like I said though, I'd be fine going D with someone like Hensler or Boumedienne. I just like Ryabkin as a prospect.

Got it now. Thanks.

[STL fan in MN]

Jiricek was a boom or bust type a year ago. I’d be a bit surprised if they took relatively large risk 2 years in a row.

[zamadoo]

Jiricek was a boom or bust type a year ago. I’d be a bit surprised if they took relatively large risk 2 years in a row.

Yeah I thought of that while typing out my response. Part of the reason I think a safe D pick would be a good choice. Just not much to choose from compared to forwards, and then the forwards in our range don't impress me much.

FWIW Jiricek is the guy I wanted them to take last year. I even liked him over Buium. If not for injuries, he's much less of a boom/bust type IMO.

[STL fan in MN]

Jiricek was a boom or bust type a year ago. I’d be a bit surprised if they took relatively large risk 2 years in a row.

Yeah I thought of that while typing out my response. Part of the reason I think a safe D pick would be a good choice. Just not much to choose from compared to forwards, and then the forwards in our range don't impress me much.

FWIW Jiricek is the guy I wanted them to take last year. I even liked him over Buium. If not for injuries, he's much less of a boom/bust type IMO.

Well, the injuries matter. And the “he would’ve been a top-10 pick if not for the injuries” line about Jiricek is a crock of (bleep) IMO. He was ranked around 10th going into the season but there’s no guarantee he would’ve stayed there even if he’d stayed healthy. I mean, Ryabkin was easily top-5 going into this season and now he’s unlikely to go in the 1st round at all. I found Jiricek to be a huge (unnecessary) risk and still feel that way a year later. I’m hoping to not be disappointed again this year.

[zamadoo]

Jiricek was a boom or bust type a year ago. I’d be a bit surprised if they took relatively large risk 2 years in a row.

Yeah I thought of that while typing out my response. Part of the reason I think a safe D pick would be a good choice. Just not much to choose from compared to forwards, and then the forwards in our range don't impress me much.

FWIW Jiricek is the guy I wanted them to take last year. I even liked him over Buium. If not for injuries, he's much less of a boom/bust type IMO.

Well, the injuries matter. And the “he would’ve been a top-10 pick if not for the injuries” line about Jiricek is a crock of (bleep) IMO. He was ranked around 10th going into the season but there’s no guarantee he would’ve stayed there even if he’d stayed healthy. I mean, Ryabkin was easily top-5 going into this season and now he’s unlikely to go in the 1st round at all. I found Jiricek to be a huge (unnecessary) risk and still feel that way a year later. I’m hoping to not be disappointed again this year.

Oh I agree, and I didn't think Jiricek should've been a top-10 pick. Really I just mean to say that he has much less bust potential without the injuries. Actually, I really liked Dickinson. I spend far less time watching and analyzing prospects than you do (especially this year) and really had no idea Ryabkin was regarded as top-5 potential until I heard that scout from the video I posted earlier mention that he was and that he was Demidov's teammate who probably even made Demidov look as good as he did. Well, let's hope Jiricek gains some strength and maybe you get your guy (whoever that may be).